DMV Weather :vaflag: :mdflag:

#Weather forecasts and severe weather alerts for central #Virginia, #Maryland, and #DC. #VAwx #MDwx #DCwx

Website: https://dmvweather.beehiiv.com/

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Last Notes

2026-10-08 11:14:38 UTC

Tested positive for #COVID last night; several co-workers are out sick, one had to go to the hospital. Be careful out there, keep masks handy and get that updated COVID and flu shot if you're able to!

2026-08-11 01:35:34 UTC

Sorry to harp on this again but it’s bothering me immensely. It would really be great if the local TV meteorologists started raising the alarm about how badly forecast models have been with these late day storms. Only the 3km NAM had thunderstorms rolling through central Virginia this afternoon/evening, but even that model didn’t show anything as widespread as what actually transpired.
We’re in a world of trouble if we don’t stop defunding science and research.

2026-07-28 22:33:42 UTC

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
628 PM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026
The National Weather Service in Sterling #Virginia has issued a
* Tornado Warning for...
**Northeastern Spotsylvania County** in central Virginia...
* Until 700 PM EDT.
* At 628 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located near Spotsylvania, or near Fredericksburg, moving
southeast at 25 mph.
HAZARD...Tornado.
SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.
IMPACT...For those in the direct path of a tornado touchdown,
flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
shelter. Damage to roofs, siding, and windows may occur.
Mobile homes may be damaged or destroyed. Tree damage is
likely.
* This dangerous storm will be near...
**Massaponax** around 635 PM EDT.
#VAwx

2026-07-18 21:39:48 UTC

The severe threat is over now for #Baltimore and #DC
Once these further south roll through Doswell to Short Pump and Glen Allen, the severe threat will be done for the area.
#VAwx

2026-07-18 18:47:07 UTC

The radar signature isn't terribly clear for a tornado....in all likelihood I think it's really intense straight line winds headed towards Damascus, Mount Airy, Clarksburg, Germantown (which will be under a severe thunderstorm warning shortly). Large hail still a big threat though. #MDwx

2026-07-18 18:28:25 UTC

Severe thunderstorm warning from #Charlottesville to Gordonsville and Orange. #VAwx

2026-07-18 12:34:51 UTC

Improvement in air quality around #RVA this morning, still quite bad from Charlottesville to D.C. and much of #Maryland but models show improvement in VA as the day goes on. A heat advisory is in effect along and east of I-95 from Emporia to D.C.
https://dmvcommunitymedia.b-cdn.net/media_attachments/files/116/940/966/261/792/782/original/41e584bdc66fa71f.png

2026-07-17 10:52:55 UTC

Code red air quality is in place now from #Maryland into #Virginia, definitely want to limit your time outside today and if you have to venture out, wear a KN95 mask or one that can filter PM2.5. On the other hand, the smoke might keep us from reaching the upper 90s today. #VAwx #MDwx #DCwx

2026-07-04 18:17:00 UTC

Storms starting to pop now, one over Williamsburg where a severe thunderstorm warning is in effect, a few more just west of Charlottesville, and up by Harrisonburg, and generally scattered around the Shenandoah Valley. The Wakefield radar is unfortunately down so tracking storms around Richmond may be tough until it comes back online, hopefully soon.

2026-06-13 20:20:27 UTC

This 👇 #Virginia #VAwx
https://dmvcommunitymedia.b-cdn.net/media_attachments/files/116/744/639/331/510/909/original/0d95befb21e654c5.png

2026-03-02 00:48:59 UTC

Looking further down the pike weather-wise, we'll be in for a nearly 13 day stretch of temperatures hovering near 80º through mid-March, starting later this week 🔥🥵 #RVA #Virginia #VAwx #Maryland #MDwx #DCwx
https://dmvcommunitymedia.b-cdn.net/media_attachments/files/116/156/816/303/726/975/original/04cc6688d9323bad.png
https://dmvcommunitymedia.b-cdn.net/media_attachments/files/116/156/816/887/953/766/original/ceedb5705d8be5e6.png

2026-01-20 18:24:28 UTC

A quick word about weather apps on smartphones: they all pull their data from just the GFS model, rather than determining the consensus of all the global models. Which for calm weather or your average garden variety cold front with showers, it's no big deal. But some models like the GFS do have certain biases, so for big events like winter storms and hurricanes, you really want to rely much more heavily on forecast sources where a human is involved, making constant adjustments and understanding how each model handles these types of events. This is why you might hear a TV meteorologist forecast an amount that's much higher or lower than what your weather app says. In which case, defer to the meteorologist. Historically, the GFS model in particular has struggled with accurately forecasting winter storms on the east coast.

2025-10-02 01:50:20 UTC

You guys, you guys! I stumbled upon a website that emulates The Weather Channel of the 90s and early 2000s! Music and all! https://weatherstar.netbymatt.com/

2025-07-04 14:34:42 UTC

Please call your Congressperson and Senators if you have time, the budget bill before Congress decimates hurricane forecasting. It will result in the labs responsible for our most accurate forecast models being shuttered. The capitol switchboard is (202) 224-3121 #BigUglyBill #BudgetBill #SaveNOAA

2025-06-29 01:17:22 UTC

Anyone remember the derecho that happened 13 years ago tomorrow that traveled 600 miles in 4 hours, from Illinois to Virginia? One minute it’s completely sunny and clear, then the next minute it’s a raging storm knocking out power, and then it’s over before you even knew what was happening.

2025-06-26 22:34:22 UTC

Oh, yeah, this should end well. Totally normal. Totally won’t result in lives lost and lots of unnecessary damage and destruction.
https://michaelrlowry.substack.com/p/critical-hurricane-forecast-tool

2025-05-12 19:19:33 UTC

Pretty much all of Virginia is under a flood watch now through Wednesday morning for 2-3” widespread from tonight and tomorrow’s rain #VAwx #RVA

2025-05-06 14:40:36 UTC

🤬🤬🤬 https://www.cnn.com/2025/05/05/weather/weather-weapons-nws-radar-attack

2025-04-09 22:29:24 UTC

Nothing says “We don’t think Hispanic people are human” like ending Spanish-language translations for National Weather Service severe weather alerts. 🤬
The only people who aren’t human are the ones running our government.

2025-02-28 02:25:54 UTC

The axe fell hard today on employees at NOAA, National Weather Service, etc.
Say goodbye to tornado, hurricane, flood warnings and the severe weather outlooks that guide your local TV meteorologists.
Republicans can go to hell.

2025-02-14 11:22:47 UTC

Unreal. I just hopped on to check the forecast models for Thursday (the 20th) and not one but four of the five global forecast models have over a foot of snow on the ground by noon on Friday for a pretty broad swath of central and eastern #Virginia and #Maryland, with the European model going up to two feet! 🥶 Really tight agreement among the ECMWF, Canadian, UK, and German models. This would be a fluffy, powdery snow instead of heavy and wet like this last system as temperatures look like they'll be safely cold enough for all snow and little to no sleet/freezing rain.

2025-02-14 03:29:27 UTC

NOAA is being completely gutted as we speak, hundreds (at least) of employees being fired en mass. This is going to cripple forecasting and severe weather monitoring.

2025-01-23 13:16:33 UTC

Finally getting above freezing this afternoon, ending a stretch of 68 consecutive hours under the freezing mark. Seeing some low to mid 50s early next week which will surely feel like summer after what we've just been through 🥵😆

2025-01-07 13:36:13 UTC

My mother-in-law works for the SCC and even with NO RUNNING WATER anywhere in any building in the city, still had to go in on two-hour delay. WTF? Where exactly are people supposed to use the restroom, wash hands, etc?

2024-12-15 22:22:08 UTC

Actual quote from the guy Trump is tapping to run the Department of Energy: "We simply don't have meaningful alternatives to oil, gas, and coal today."
I'm sorry....what?
Translation: "I can't get rich from renewables so we're not doing that."

2024-10-15 23:15:29 UTC

Rainbow this morning seen from near Doswell, VA 🌈
https://dmvcommunitymedia.b-cdn.net/media_attachments/files/113/313/976/711/607/006/original/21c60e77f4e2c04c.jpeg

2024-10-10 23:19:53 UTC

- reply

Too far to the south, regrettably. They probably got some rain and a breeze but that's about it.

2024-10-10 23:06:09 UTC

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I know it sucks to evacuate and everything involved with that, it's a major hassle, but given that Milton was flirting with being the third strongest hurricane in recorded history (a day prior to landfall), and given that hurricanes in the Gulf have had a history of over-performing intensity forecasts, especially in the final 36 hours or so prior to landfall, it made sense to take every single precaution. Better safe and annoyed than possibly dead.

2024-10-10 22:24:58 UTC

- reply

They're NOT wrong most of the time. I don't know where you're getting that. If you're conflating weather apps with NWS forecasters, that's a mistake. Weather apps are hot garbage. They're based off one model, not a consensus of the 15 or so models available, there's no input from forecasters who would be able to spot errors in that one particular model and make corrections.

2024-10-10 22:18:36 UTC

*Long exasperated sigh*
Just a friendly reminder that even though it appears Milton didn't reach the highest level of devastation that was forecast when it reached Florida, doesn't mean that suddenly we can't trust forecasters, or that people shouldn't have needed to evacuate, or that the storm was "hyped". I don't think I need to explain that as much as forecasting has advanced, it's not price to the hyper-local level. And I also don't think I need to explain that just because "it wasn't that bad" in one particular spot, doesn't mean it wasn't devastating elsewhere. Milton weakening quicker than expected doesn't undo the last two decades of significant progress in forecast accuracy.

2024-10-10 22:01:17 UTC

- reply

I was referring to forecasts overall in the last decade. One forecast that might've underperformed doesn't undo 10+ years of advances that have made hurricane forecasting (and other types of severe weather) much more precise than they used to be. Also, it's quite foolish to claim "it wasn't that bad in my area" when hurricanes obviously cover a very, very large area and the intensity can vary substantially even over a few miles.
And do tell...what should they have done differently? Which forecast model should they have given more weight to? Since you seem to think you know better than people who've spent decades in research and studies?

2024-10-10 10:02:42 UTC

- reply

This seems to imply incompetence on the part of forecasters, unless I'm interpreting your post incorrectly. Unfortunately it's actually quite difficult to pin down the exact motion of the eye and eye wall since a deviation of just a few miles can make a huge difference as to where the worst of the hurricane actually ends up. Overall forecasting accuracy has been pretty remarkable for a while though, and forecasters did call for Milton to weaken some as it approached the coast and that's exactly what happened. Floridians still did the right thing by evacuating. Let's just be thankful it didn't reach it's full potential.

2024-08-17 13:43:17 UTC

The middle of next week will bring some of the coolest air we've seen (for areas from the valley to as far east as I-95) since March. Forecast models show overnight lows in the upper 50s just west of 95, and low 50s and even upper 40s in the valley and Blue Ridge. Highs Tuesday and Wednesday will struggle to reach 80. Great camping weather! #VAwx #MDwx

2024-08-08 00:17:26 UTC

The highest rain totals from Debby have shifted even further west, along the Blue Ridge and into the Shenandoah Valley, and western Maryland, leaving the 95 corridor from #RVA to #DC in the 1-2 inch range, and lesser amounts along the bay. A flood watch is in effect now west of 95. #VAwx #MDwx
https://dmvcommunitymedia.b-cdn.net/media_attachments/files/112/923/505/762/271/992/original/e8112f8a42bab25b.png

2024-08-06 01:11:28 UTC

Still expecting a shit-ton of rain across most of Virginia and Maryland from Thursday into Friday (GFS model says rain could linger into Saturday). Widespread 4-6" across central and eastern Virginia and Maryland, 1-3" western areas. Unfortunately this won't be spread out over several days so flash flooding is going to be an issue again Thursday/Friday. #VAwx #MDwx
https://dmvcommunitymedia.b-cdn.net/media_attachments/files/112/912/362/702/808/808/original/d71ce5b20a028793.png