Rob Larter

Polar marine scientist. Made in Wolverhampton. Enhanced at universities of Durham, Aberdeen and Birmingham. UK science lead in Science Coordination Office of the International Thwaites Glacier Collaboration 2022-2026. Views are my own.

Profile page: https://bas.ac.uk/profile/rdla

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Last Notes

2026-10-17 14:35:51 UTC

"Senegal-sized Antarctic glacier"
That's a new comparison to me but its a good one:
Senegal area 196,700 km-sq
Thwaires Glacier area 192,800 km-sq
The article discusses two recently published modelling papers -
one is by Poinelli and co-authors, which projects faster ice loss than has been generally forecast hitherto;
the other is by my colleague Rosie Williams and co-authors, which concludes that, even in the most ridiculously optimistic scenario, there is no way ice loss is going to stop on policy-relevant timescales.
https://www.aljazeera.com/amp/news/2026/10/17/senegal-sized-antarctic-glacier-melting-faster-than-thought-why-it-matters

2026-10-11 06:37:56 UTC

RE: https://fediscience.org/@PoLaRobs/117383396944738805
For the past week Antarctic sea-ice extent has closely tracked its decline through the same week in the previous record low year of 2023. The persistent low extent then was so far below anything recorded before that even experts were surprised and struggled to explain the sudden change. According to the US National Snow and Ice Data Centre Sea Ice Index, this year’s decline in extent after the annual sea-ice maximum last month slowed earlier this week so that for 3 days is was very slightly greater than on the same day in 2023. Then it took another sharp downturn and is now setting new records for low extent for the date again.
#note1mfg…jlgz

2026-10-04 15:41:33 UTC

RE: https://fediscience.org/@PoLaRobs/117373556108379345
🏆🥇It's a record! Antarctic sea ice extent is now the lowest for the date it has been since the satellite record started 47 years ago.
On October third the extent was 16.739 million km², dipping under the previous record of 16.848 million km² set on this date in 2023.
After reaching an annual minimum in February that was not as low as in the last few years the regrowth of sea ice through the winter was much slower than usual, and now we're heading into uncharted territory.
The data I'm quoting here are from the US National Snow and Ice Data Centre.
https://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index
#note16qa…s2qk

2026-10-02 21:58:54 UTC

ALERT! Antarctic sea ice extent today tied with that in 2023 for the record low for the date, and on the present trajectory it is about to set new records.
Graphic by @npub1ykx…lz93
https://zacklabe.com/antarctic-sea-ice-extentconcentration/
https://fediscience.org/system/media_attachments/files/117/373/554/084/790/312/original/f52ec82eefaf36e5.png

2026-10-01 20:49:45 UTC

🧵 Shockingly, Swiss #glaciers have lost about 2 km³ of ice, 5.5% of their remaining volume this summer. Over the past 5 years the losses total about 10 km³. This is a serious matter because of the resulting increase in hazards, their importance to water supplies and income from tourism, in addition to their cultural value.
https://www.bluewin.ch/en/news/switzerland/swiss-glaciers-are-currently-experiencing-one-of-their-worst-years-li.3620087

2026-08-18 20:46:35 UTC

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Or are you just referring to the dip in extent over the last week or so?

2026-08-18 20:35:56 UTC

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But mostly Bellingshausen?
I have been saying for a while that to get a clearer picture of how sea-ice extent has been changing over recent decades we really need to stop treating this flank of Antarctica as a single sector.

2026-07-31 15:15:45 UTC

Joining the dots.
1. Wildfires are estimated to have cost the UK more than £500 million in 2025 and from recent events it seems likely the cost will be several times greater this year.
https://www.moorlandassociation.org/post/wildfires-have-cost-the-uk-nearly-half-a-billion-pounds-so-far-in-2025-says-moorland-association
2. Recent rapid attribution studies conclude that climate change increased the likelihood of compounding drivers of severe wildfire conditions experienced recently in France and Spain. It isn't a great logical leap to suppose the same is true for wildfires now occurring in the UK.
https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/climate-change-increases-likelihood-of-compounding-drivers-of-severe-wildfire-conditions-in-france-and-spain/
3. Oil companies are presently making huge windfall profits due to the high oil and gas prices resulting from the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. For example
https://www.shell.com/investors/results-and-reporting/quarterly-results/_jcr_content/root/main/section/simple/promo_1962010312_cop/links/item0.stream/1785372072040/e57181bc216c6ec907666599b9822d2dc8dc0049/q2-2026-quarterly-press-release.pdf
Putting these facts together it seems to me there is a clear case for a windfall tax to cover the costs of the unprecedented level of damage this year that has resulted from the burning of fossil fuels (which wildfires only make up part of).

2026-07-24 11:48:11 UTC

The “Eternity Glaciers” Are Almost Gone
The equatorial glaciers atop Puncak Jaya, Oceania’s tallest peak, have shrunk by about 95% since 2002, according to a new photogrammetry mapping effort.
https://eos.org/articles/the-eternity-glaciers-are-almost-gone

2026-06-26 07:34:04 UTC

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If that isn't enough irony for you, another group of idiot councillors planning a similar motion had their meeting postponed due to the extreme heat.
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/reform-councillor-climate-change-heatwave-37341263

2026-06-26 06:41:51 UTC

You couldn't make this up. In the middle of an unprecedented heatwave that scientific analysis shows couldn't have reached these levels without anthropogenic warming, idiot councillors voted to deny that there is a problem.
Sunderland Council rescinds climate emergency declaration - BBC News
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c8023pexnnlo

2026-06-24 09:19:41 UTC

New paper led by Patric Simões Pereira presents evidence for a reduced West Antarctic Ice Sheet during late Quaternary interglacial periods from analysis of ice-rafted debris in Amundsen Sea sediments.
https://doi.org/10.1029/2026GL121909
https://fediscience.org/system/media_attachments/files/116/804/337/874/639/217/original/b98a4cd3419de94e.png

2026-06-19 18:00:12 UTC

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Absolutely. Sometimes those of us standing up against the tidal wave of geoengineering nonsense get asked if we'd approve of a geoengineering solution that could be proved to work. The answer is yes. Reducing emissions to net zero is geoengineering. The difference is that we've run an experiment on the effects of emissions for 150 years and tens of thousands of scientists have analysed the results. So it's the only fix that we can have confidence in. We need to stop looking for distractions and focus on making progress with this.

2026-06-19 17:49:02 UTC

‘Termination shock’: trust our expert warnings on geoengineering’s planetary risks | Raymond Pierrehumbert, Julia Slingo, Michael Mann and Valerie Masson-Delmotte
"let us start with some simple truths about this cluster of techno-optimistic “quick fixes” which purport to somehow offset our slow progress towards zeroing out planet-warming carbon emissions."
Excellent - a reality check on the growing geoengineering bandwagon is needed urgently.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2026/jun/19/solar-geoengineering-risk-to-planet-earth?CMP=share_btn_url

2026-06-13 06:07:36 UTC

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And those of us who are more than twice that age have seen more than 85% of the warming and a similar proportion of the cumulative man-made greenhouse emissions in our lifetimes. Amazing how this works isn't it?

2026-05-28 23:13:19 UTC

I chatted with Patrick Pester at LiveScience about the impending demise of the Thwaites Eastern Ice Shelf, future change to Thwaites Glacier itself and the implications for sea-level rise.
https://www.livescience.com/planet-earth/antarctica/the-doomsday-glacier-is-poised-to-lose-its-ice-shelf-this-year-an-antarctic-researcher-explains-what-that-means-for-global-sea-levels
#Antarctica #sealevel #ThwaitesGlacier

2026-05-25 17:09:49 UTC

Grey seals on the beach on the east coast of Norfolk this weekend, including one that was struggling with a plastic ring around its neck.
https://fediscience.org/system/media_attachments/files/116/636/285/095/140/689/original/8207bb6ab430512d.jpeg
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2026-04-16 05:47:19 UTC

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That's a terrifying conclusion. Other studies have concluded that we may not be able to tell we're passing an AMOC tipping point until it is too late. At the other end of the world, my reading of research I'm familiar with indicates that loss of the marine-based parts of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet is now committed, although if we're lucky this may take several centuries to play out. An emerging conclusion seems to be that some major tipping points occur at around 1.5°C above pre-industrial, as IPCC reports have been warning that they might for many years.
The new AMOC modelling paper is here
https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.adx4298

2026-04-12 09:42:41 UTC

RE: https://fediscience.org/@PoLaRobs/116015249535835599
It has taken me more than 2 months to complete this retrospective travelogue thread about the 17-day voyage I went on in Jan-Feb to the #Antarctic Peninsula on the #tallship #BarkEuropa.
Quoting the first post here to make it easy for anyone interested to start from the beginning.
#BusmansHoliday
#note1h55…ejsr

2026-04-11 18:48:06 UTC

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Day 17, the final day, of my voyage to the #Antarctic Peninsula on the #tallship #BarkEuropa: returning along the Beagle Channel to Ushuaia, from where we had set out. There I was able to pay my respects to the bust of Adrien De Gerlache, who led the Belgica expedition of 1897-1899 on which much of the area we had visited was first charted. Like Bark Europa, the Belgica was a three-masted bark, but a little smaller. The Belgica also called at Ushuaia in the last few days of 1897 before heading to Antarctica. Finally, I joined many of the other voyage crew in the Patagonia bar to reminisce on our shared adventure.
https://fediscience.org/system/media_attachments/files/116/387/527/139/706/314/original/808074653065e8fc.jpg
https://fediscience.org/system/media_attachments/files/116/387/527/367/333/819/original/13e019e809a16cdc.jpg
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2026-04-03 08:13:20 UTC

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I'd seen Cape Horn once before, from above on a flight 12 years ago on the British Antarctic Survey Dash7 aircraft, going from Punta Arenas, #Chile to Rothera Research Station on the #Antarctic Peninsula.
https://fediscience.org/system/media_attachments/files/116/339/752/162/339/526/original/66ad834072ae713e.jpeg

2026-04-02 22:43:41 UTC

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Night time video clip looking towards Cape Horn in which lights from two lighthouses can be seen flashing intermittently.
https://fediscience.org/system/media_attachments/files/116/337/525/390/703/764/original/94c88267eb55d996.mp4

2026-04-02 22:41:21 UTC

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Day 16 of my voyage to the #Antarctic Peninsula on the #tallship #BarkEuropa: several members of the voyage crew were keen to see Cape Horn on our way back to Ushuaia. The Captain agreed, but warned us that we would pass the Cape in the early hours of the morning. Hence all we could see was the dark shape of hills against a cloudy sky and the flashing lights of two lighthouses (see short video clip in post below).
https://fediscience.org/system/media_attachments/files/116/337/492/581/101/864/original/4ff107e733ef66f6.jpg

2026-03-29 22:21:15 UTC

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Day 15 of my voyage to the #Antarctic Peninsula on the #tallship #BarkEuropa: riding the waves across Drake Passage with Bark Europa in full sail, viewed from near the wheelhouse.
https://fediscience.org/system/media_attachments/files/116/314/791/535/595/291/original/b89e0ef3cec82bda.mp4

2026-03-29 17:12:31 UTC

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Days 12-14 of my voyage to the #Antarctic Peninsula on the #tallship #BarkEuropa: sailng back north across Drake Passage.
1. Unfurling the staysails.
2. Members of voyage crew at the helm shortly before dawn.
3. A full set of five square sails on the foremast, together with a staysail attached to the forward side the mast.
4. A majestic rainbow compensates for unpleasant conditions after a squall had passed by.
#BusmansHoliday
https://fediscience.org/system/media_attachments/files/116/313/496/258/887/694/original/fb015e3de208e73f.jpg
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2026-03-29 00:03:39 UTC

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A short video clip of chinstrap penguins and chicks in the rookery on the crest of the ridge. Sound on to hear their calls.
https://fediscience.org/system/media_attachments/files/116/309/513/917/790/355/original/fe12eea6a90f256b.mp4

2026-03-28 22:37:14 UTC

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Day 11 of my voyage to the #Antarctic Peninsula on the #tallship #BarkEuropa (continued): our final landing, at Orne Harbour on the mainland of the Peninsula. We climbed up a snow slope to a narrow ridge on which there was a chinstrap #penguin rookery. It was amazing to see how high up and how exposed the locations are where some chinstraps choose to raise their chicks. It was also impressive to watch them climbing icy slopes on which even experienced climbers would feel uncomfortable without an ice axe and crampons.
#BusmansHoliday
https://fediscience.org/system/media_attachments/files/116/309/148/563/617/797/original/a178aef7386f0ecc.jpg
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2026-03-23 23:48:00 UTC

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Day 11 of my voyage to the #Antarctic Peninsula on the #tallship #BarkEuropa (continued): Gentoo #penguins on Danco Island.
#BusmansHoliday
https://fediscience.org/system/media_attachments/files/116/281/120/336/630/241/original/abf1dbe24d000bdd.jpg
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2026-03-22 22:04:46 UTC

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Day 11 of my voyage to the #Antarctic Peninsula on the #tallship #BarkEuropa: landing on Danco Island, the location of former British Base O, occupied 1956-1959, demolished and removed 2004.
#BusmansHoliday
https://fediscience.org/system/media_attachments/files/116/275/047/699/247/014/original/3ea743de6b186d3e.jpg
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2026-03-15 09:53:13 UTC

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Day 10 of my voyage to the #Antarctic Peninsula on the #tallship #BarkEuropa (continued): visit to the historic Port Lockroy base, established in 1944 and now maintained by @UKAntarcticHeritageTrust
#BusmansHoliday
https://fediscience.org/system/media_attachments/files/116/232/539/487/704/616/original/0f980b56bbb69e6e.jpg
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2026-03-13 23:19:57 UTC

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Day 10 of my voyage to the #Antarctic Peninsula on the #tallship #BarkEuropa (continued): gentoo penguin, penguin chicks and a giant petrel feasting on its prey at Jougla Point.
#BusmansHoliday
https://fediscience.org/system/media_attachments/files/116/224/374/492/309/913/original/24a40d9edfe79e9f.jpg
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2026-03-11 23:40:42 UTC

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Day 10 of my voyage to the #Antarctic Peninsula on the #tallship #BarkEuropa: landing on Jougla Point, a location formerly used by Whalers and literally a stone's throw away from the island where the former British base of Port Lockroy is located.
#BusmansHoliday
https://fediscience.org/system/media_attachments/files/116/213/147/641/965/972/original/c44816fe09ffb3cb.jpg
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2026-03-09 07:23:54 UTC

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Day 9 of my voyage to the #Antarctic Peninsula on the #tallship #BarkEuropa (continued): Gentoo penguins at Neko Harbour, and a penguin egg that had recently been plundered by a skua.
#BusmansHoliday
https://fediscience.org/system/media_attachments/files/116/197/988/086/541/566/original/2212f7a415c395e2.jpg
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2026-03-05 20:22:15 UTC

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Day 9 of my voyage to the #Antarctic Peninsula on the #tallship #BarkEuropa (continued): second landing of the day on the mainland of the Antarctic Peninsula, at Neko Harbour.
#BusmansHoliday
https://fediscience.org/system/media_attachments/files/116/178/362/099/558/385/original/5a43db28287eb472.jpg
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2026-03-02 23:20:08 UTC

Great to see this published. An 18,000 year record of deep water temperatures on the Amundsen Sea continental shelf, which confirms that incursion of warm water onto the shelf has been the main driver of West Antarctic Ice Sheet retreat throughout deglaciation. About 10,000 years ago the amount of warm water on the shelf decreased and subsequent ice sheet retreat was very slow, until the warm water incursion increased again in the mid 20th century. Excellent work led by Elaine Mawbey and @npub18m6…cm46
Ocean heat forced West Antarctic Ice Sheet retreat after the Last Glacial Maximum
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-026-68949-5

2026-03-01 12:54:09 UTC

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A lot of melting was taking place when we visited Stony Point. Of course, this was summer in Antarctica, so some melting was expected. However, temperatures on this day and through January as a whole were 1 to 2°C above the recent average, which itself is a couple of degrees warmer than in the mid-20th century. Later this day the dry air temperature recorded on Bark Europa in neighbouring Andvord Bay was 3.8°C. Average 21st century January temperature at the US Palmer Station on Anvers Island is 2.7°C.
https://fediscience.org/system/media_attachments/files/116/153/951/524/801/094/original/b29fdb4536888b4d.mp4

2026-02-28 15:34:48 UTC

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Day 9 of my voyage to the #Antarctic Peninsula on the #tallship #BarkEuropa (continued): the varied expressions of a Weddell seal resting on the beach at Stony Point.
#BusmansHoliday
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2026-02-25 22:57:51 UTC

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Day 9 of my voyage to the #Antarctic Peninsula on the #tallship #BarkEuropa (continued): a selection of wildlife photos taken at Stony Point.
#BusmansHoliday
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2026-02-24 23:22:57 UTC

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Day 9 of my voyage to the #Antarctic Peninsula on the #tallship #BarkEuropa: first landing on the mainland of the Antarctic Peninsula, at Stony Point, Paradise Harbour.
#BusmansHoliday
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2026-02-22 20:02:39 UTC

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Day 8 of my voyage to the #Antarctic Peninsula on the #tallship #BarkEuropa (continued): a few photos of Adelie penguins on the Yalour Islands.
#BusmansHoliday
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2026-02-22 10:04:18 UTC

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The present levels of greenhouse gases are having a lot of adverse effects, but if we can stop them rising a lot further the effects are manageable. If we stop adding to them they will decrease, albeit very slowly, as a consequence of natural sinks.
What we absolutely shouldn't do is compound our past mistakes by experimenting with unproven, astronomically expensive and potentially dangerous science fiction ideas.

2026-02-22 09:44:45 UTC

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Day 8 of my voyage to the #Antarctic Peninsula on the #tallship #BarkEuropa: instruction on climbing on the higher sections of the masts and the yards, then passage through Lemaire Channel (commonly referred to as Kodak Crack back in the day when all photographers used film), followed by a landing on the Yalour Islands, which host a large Adelie peguin rookery.
#BusmansHoliday
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2026-02-21 22:49:01 UTC

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Absolutely not. If we stop enriching the atmosphere in greenhouse gases we stop making the future worse. Any other suggested intervention, even if it worked, would only work on one symptom and would be likely to have unintended adverse consequences. We could waste hundreds of billions of dollars on wild concepts that just end up making things worse and distract from the actions we know are necessary.

2026-02-21 20:22:44 UTC

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If by taking control you mean turning down the dial on the one type of geoengineering we've been running an inadvertent experiment on for more than 150 years, then I agree. This is the only intervention we understand the consequences of, because we have the empirical evidence to show us what the long-term results are. It is also the only intervention which tackles all aspects of the problem, by addressing the cause.

2026-02-21 20:14:42 UTC

At last, some common sense about climate geoengineering in a major media outlet.
👏
Injecting particulates into the atmosphere isn’t a magical fix for the climate crisis
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2026/feb/20/geoengineering-techno-fix-problems-climate-crisis?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Other

2026-02-19 07:14:21 UTC

During my recent voyage to the #Antarctic Peninsula on #BarkEuropa we experienced rain rather than snow on 5 consecutive days, which I'm fairly sure must be unusual in this region. The temperature anomaly map for January from @CopernicusECMWF provides an explanation. Temperatures across much of the region were 1 to 1.5°C warmer than the 1991-2020 average for the time of year. This comes on top of regional warming of about 2°C in the second half of the 20th century, as recorded at the Faraday (now Vernadsky) research station.
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2026-02-15 22:50:15 UTC

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The stand-out sights of this small boat excursion were a number of Weddell seals resting on some of the bergy bits.
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2026-02-15 22:42:23 UTC

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Day 7 of my voyage to the #Antarctic Peninsula on the #tallship #BarkEuropa: an exploration of a narrow channel between Spert and Trinity Islands in small boats, weaving between numerous icebergs and growlers.
#BusmansHoliday
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2026-02-10 22:42:25 UTC

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Day 6 of my voyage to the #Antarctic Peninsula on the #tallship #BarkEuropa: a close approach to Half Moon Island in McFarlane Strait, South Shetland Islands, but strong winds precluded a landing. Subsequently we approached close to Edinburgh Hill on Livingston Island, a volcanic plug exhibiting spectacular columnar jointing.
#BusmansHoliday
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2026-02-08 22:04:49 UTC

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Wildlife encountered during our landing at Whalers' Bay, Deception Island.
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2026-02-08 21:56:04 UTC

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Decaying remains of the old whaling station at Whalers' Bay, Deception Island, including a derelict whalers' hut that was used as the main accommodation building by British researchers stationed here between 1944 and 1969. Under an international agreement Deception Island is designated as an Antarctic Specially Managed Area, but there is little evidence of any management. The decaying remains of the station here are neither being conserved nor removed.
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2026-02-08 21:19:59 UTC

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Day 5 (continued) of my voyage to the #Antarctic Peninsula on the #tallship #BarkEuropa: second landing, at Whalers' Bay, Deception Island, South Shetland Islands. From the landing site we walked up a valley to a depression in the caldera rim from which Nathaniel B Palmer first sighted the mainland of the Antarctic Peninsula in 1820.
#BusmansHoliday
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2026-02-08 17:55:19 UTC

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Day 5 (continued) of my voyage to the #Antarctic Peninsula on the #tallship #BarkEuropa: first close encounters with some of the local inhabitants at Telefon Bay, Deception Island, South Shetland Islands.
#BusmansHoliday
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2026-02-08 17:48:06 UTC

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Day 5 (continued) of my voyage to the #Antarctic Peninsula on the #tallship #BarkEuropa: first landing, at Telefon Bay, Deception Island, South Shetland Islands. From the landing site we walked to the summit of Cross Hill and around the phreatic eruption crater it stands on one side of.
#BusmansHoliday
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2026-02-08 00:02:36 UTC

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Day 5 of my voyage to the #Antarctic Peninsula on the #tallship #BarkEuropa: approaching Neptune's Bellows, the narrow entrance to the 7 km wide flooded volcanic caldera of Deception Island, South Shetland Islands.
#BusmansHoliday
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2026-02-05 10:54:01 UTC

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Days 2-4 of my voyage to the #Antarctic Peninsula on the #tallship #BarkEuropa: crossing #DrakePassage until we sighted Smith Island, South Shetland Islands. As expected, there were some rough seas, but I didn't feel well enough to take photos in the worst conditions.
#BusmansHoliday
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2026-02-05 00:43:40 UTC

Day 1 of my voyage to the #Antarctic Peninsula on the #tallship #BarkEuropa: departing from #Ushuaia and sailing east along the Beagle Channel.
#BusmansHoliday
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2025-12-27 10:32:16 UTC

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Meanwhile cricket fans in Europe catch up on some sleep

2025-12-27 08:50:52 UTC

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I agree, it doesn't seem right. I've read that this is the first series between any teams to contain two two-day Tests since 1896. In the case of the match that just finished it sounds like the pitch wasn't prepared properly for test cricket, which is shocking.

2025-12-27 07:56:20 UTC

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I've been to a couple of ice hockey matches at the Gattiker ice rink in Cambridge. Agree it's very impressive.
That comment about the England cricket team being rubbish didn't age well though, did it?

2025-12-19 11:29:03 UTC

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Even as someone soon to become a beneficiary, I think the state pension triple lock is unsustainable. The difficulty any government faces on this though is that old folk are a large fraction of the electorate and most likely to vote, and self interest influences a lot of voting decisions. It's a tricky conundrum.

2025-12-19 07:31:15 UTC

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I agree that it's how a good social democracy should work, but a difficulty with it in the UK at present is our highly skewed demographic distribution, with relatively few in work supporting a large aging population.

2025-12-02 20:21:55 UTC

Sea-ice extent in the Bellingshausen Sea (lower left on these maps) is not presently as minimal as it was at the start of December three years ago, but with 2½ months to go until the sea ice minimun, we're probably heading towards another blue ocean event in this sector.
Sea-ice extent in this sector has declined progressively through the 46 years of the satellite record. Looking back further, the first ship to visit the sector, the Belgica, was trapped in sea ice in this sector for a whole year in 1898-99.
Maps from the Institute of Environmental Physics, University of Bremen
https://seaice.uni-bremen.de/sea-ice-concentration/amsre-amsr2/
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2025-12-01 12:13:50 UTC

For #AntarcticaDay here are a few photos from my last visit, on RV Polarstern three years ago. At the end of that trip I didn't know when or if I would return. Now I have a plan to return this season - watch this space.
This is also a timely opportunity to remind everyone that over previous years we have set up a range of outreach and educational resources on the International #ThwaitesGlacier Collaboration website at
https://thwaitesglacier.org/news/antarctica-festival-2024
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2025-10-21 21:50:28 UTC

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Indeed, but the global mean rise over the past century was only 20 to 25 cm (8 to 10 inches). Over the past 30 years the rate of rise has doubled. The rate is likely to continue to rise, and may accelerate considerably if ice sheet instabilities are triggered. Much of the future rise is already committed, irrespective of what emissions scenario is now followed because even after reaching net zero the world will remain abnormally warm and it will take a long time for glaciers, ice caps and ice sheets to reach an equilibrium in this warmed world.

2025-10-20 22:49:07 UTC

How Soon Will the Seas Rise?
https://www.quantamagazine.org/how-soon-will-the-seas-rise-20251020/

2025-10-15 06:22:44 UTC

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The problem is that sea-level rise threatens to rewind the whole region, and as a society we have to decide how much we're willing to invest to stop that from happening.

2025-10-14 21:18:28 UTC

A fascinating visit to the Denver Sluice Complex today with a group from #U3AC (University of the Third Age in Cambridge). The complex is a critical centre of #flood control and water management infrastructure for a large part of East Anglia.
The first sluice at this location was constructed in the 17th century as a key step in drainage of the #Fens. The present complex of sluices has successfully enabled prevention of serious flooding and management of drainage in the large catchment for decades, but how long it will continue to be able to function so effectively as sea-level rises in future is uncertain.
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2025-10-10 23:01:11 UTC

A pleasure to have been able to visit the #RRSSirDavidAttenborough in Harwich yesterday and today to meet up with others who helped specify and commission the ship's scientific facilities. The vessel is looking great after its recent refit, and loading of cargo for departure to the #Antarctic is nearly complete.
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2025-10-07 21:59:05 UTC

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Glad it was useful. Sadly, I still have read beyond the abstract ( meetings, co-author manuscripts, reviews etc. dominating my days).

2025-10-06 09:26:06 UTC

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I have downloaded the pdf of the Coonin et al. paper using our library subscription. Let me know if you would like me to send it as an email attachment.

2025-10-06 07:27:39 UTC

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I had missed that paper. Thanks for shatter the link. Just read the abstract so far and from my knowledge of paleo data I don't think there is any way the WAIS could have contributed 5 m during this interval. In fact, 5 m is probably more than the WAIS contributed during the entire deglaciation.

2025-10-05 15:38:01 UTC

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You need to get your analysis published. I appreciate that this will be a challenge if nobody is paying you to work on it at present.

2025-10-05 09:09:18 UTC

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Interesting. Most people working on palaeo sea levels regard the existence of MWP1A as being well established. I attended one presentation about 10 years ago in which the speaker questioned whether the data really constrain the extent of the rise and timing as tightly as widely reported. I understand that there has been some revision of estimates of the magnitude and time limits since then but I haven't heard of anyone calling existence of the event into question. I'll be interested to see your final conclusions.

2025-10-04 21:21:16 UTC

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I agree that there is the potential for the WAIS to lose ice more quickly than the Laurentide did if instabilities are triggered. Current whole ice sheet models don't show this, but there are a few processes that are not fully accounted for yet. There are still questions about the threshold for initiation of MICI and under what conditions it could be sustained, and recent studies have revealed that melting at the base of ice shelves is more complex and spatially variable than current parameterisations account for. Another important unknown is how the complex interactions between ice, glacial sediments, tidal instrusions of seawater and episodic discharge of subglacial melt affect basal drag in grounding zones.

2025-10-04 21:10:13 UTC

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A group of of us in the UK have actually recently had a proposal approved to try to answer exactly this question. We're in "recommended for funding" limbo at present and had to tie up some details concerning how and when a research cruise and fieldwork can be done in order to get to the stage of getting an award letter.

2025-10-03 23:00:29 UTC

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The speed at which ice can be lost from ice sheets, particularly the WAIS, remains an important unknown that is critical for adaptation planning.

2025-10-03 22:57:20 UTC

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You estimate perhaps 12-13 m within a thousand years, but if the rate wasn't steady during that interval there could have been rates of 2 m per century or more for a few hundred years, which is getting into the zone touted for the MWP. That's huge compared the modern rate, and whatever the actual maximum rate was it was delivered from ice sheets that didn't have the same degree of instability the WAIS is thought to be vulnerable to. However, perhaps the maximum rate was achieved through synchronous losses from multiple ice sheets and ice caps?

2025-10-03 12:51:31 UTC

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That does seem like a place ice could be lost from relatively quickly, but I'm not really familiar with what constraints there are on the deglacial history.

2025-10-03 11:11:28 UTC

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I've long wondered how it would be possible to achieve the rates of ice loss needed to deliver the sea-level rise if you took the Deschamps et al. results at face value. That was around 4 m per century, or to put if more starkly, approximately one WAIS collapse per century for 4 centuries in succession. However, if you look at the high-end projections for Antarctic ice loss to 2300 in the high emission scenario ISMIP6 models presented by Seroussi et al. last year, they get close to that rate.

2025-10-02 21:53:09 UTC

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Surely the drilling results from around Tahiti, initially reported by Deschamps et al. in 2012 and more recently reanalysed by Blanchon and Chutcharavan are more difficult to dismiss though?

2025-10-02 11:30:07 UTC

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Roger Creel's re-interpretation of Holocene records is the most significant change I'm aware of. The interpretation that mean sea level peaked in the mid-Holocene seems consistent with what is known about the history of Greenland Ice Sheet mass change, and there are now several studies suggesting a similar ice mass evolution in parts of Antarctica.
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-024-54535-0

2025-09-25 14:19:29 UTC

The deepest part of the three gravity cores collected nearest to Thwaites Glacier. These glacial tills and proximal glacimarine sediments hold the potential to inform us about the timing of the last stage of grounding zone retreat before the start of contemporary ice loss, and the characteristics of the bed the downstream part of the glacier is flowing over.
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2025-09-14 09:29:46 UTC

One of the biggest challenges in the UK today is to get many ordinary people to understand that immigrants are not the reason that their lives have become harder, billionaires are.

2025-09-09 22:24:26 UTC

After the past couple of years Antarctic sea ice extent approaching ONLY 2 standard deviations less than the long-term average seems like good news.
This is what we've come to.
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2025-08-25 16:44:13 UTC

"experts believe a global rise in sea level of at least three metres may now be inevitable as a result of the break-up of Antarctica’s giant western glaciers"
I'd prefer this to have been phrased "latest scientific results point to loss of marine-based areas of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet now being inevitable, implying a commitment to more than 3 metres of global mean sea-level rise", but you get the picture.
"Believe" should never feature in a sentence about science.
https://observer.co.uk/news/international/article/global-3-metre-rise-in-sea-levels-inevitable-experts-warn-as-sci-fi-becomes-reality

2025-08-09 06:42:43 UTC

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When Netanyahu has travelled to Washington I've wondered what route he has taken to avoid the airspace of countries that do recognise the ICC and would take him into custody.

2025-08-08 07:17:10 UTC

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The higher education funding system is also flawed in the way it is loading huge debts onto UK students that most of them will never pay off. Even for graduates who earn quite good salaries, their repayments don't reduce the balance of the debt because of the high interest rates. I wonder how the situation will be managed when these vast amounts of debt have to be written off?

2025-07-19 08:33:36 UTC

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My understanding is that the change in dominant period of cyclicity during this interval is generally attributed to the way the increasing extent of Northern Hemisphere ice sheets affected system response.

2025-07-18 12:32:58 UTC

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It's not work I'm involved in, but from my perspective the main advance will be knowing with much greater certainty what atmospheric carbon dioxide levels were over the period the core covers before 800 ka

2025-07-18 06:13:46 UTC

Drilling Antarctica: What ice can tell us about our past and the future | ITV News https://www.itv.com/news/2025-07-17/drilling-antarctica-what-ice-can-tell-us-about-our-past-and-the-future

2025-07-18 06:09:40 UTC

Unique 1.5m year-old ice to be melted to unlock mystery.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c5ygwd6yj28o

2025-06-27 21:55:10 UTC

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At least most people will be saved from all but the opening paragraphs of this nonsense by the paywall. Seriously though, debunking these crazy technofantasies that are supposed to temporarily suppress some aspect or other of climate change is becoming like playing whac-a-mole. As you point out, real science has already identified the solution. We just need to get serious about implementing it.

2025-06-19 19:54:32 UTC

Moved to the next stage of my rehabilitation today following an Achilles tendon rupture in January, by participating in the office midsummer 10k. Alternated fast walking with gentle jogging and am very pleased to have beaten my target time of 1 hour 20 minutes.
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2025-06-03 05:36:00 UTC

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👏

2025-05-28 20:30:10 UTC

First time cycling to the office today since my Achilles tendon rupture in January. A little slower than I'm used to, but I'll take this for now.
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2025-04-27 14:50:18 UTC

On my way to #EGU2025, where I'll present some of the multibeam swath bathymetry and sub-bottom acoustic profiler data we collected in the Bellingshausen Sea two years ago as part of the CoReBell project on RV Polarstern expedition PS134.
https://meetingorganizer.copernicus.org/EGU25/EGU25-13677.html
1/n

2025-03-08 18:52:02 UTC

40 years ago today on my first #Antarctic and Southern Ocean research cruise I arrived at South Georgia for the first time. RRS Discovery III tied up at the jetty at King Edward Point, a short distance from the abandoned Grytviken whaling station. I had previously visited the Alps and spent summers working as a field assistant in Iceland and Alaska, but the mountain scenery of South Georgia was the most impressive I had seen - ice-capped mountains of alpine scale rising directly from the sea.
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2025-02-22 17:47:18 UTC

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I can see the potential of that. Some significance engineering challenges in making new routes across the Pennines though.
I'd much rather see genuine "levelling up" investment in northern infrastructure like this than successive governments' obsession with forcing further development along the "Oxcam arc", parts of which are still trying to adapt to the crazy pace of development that has happened over the past few decades.

2025-02-22 11:31:02 UTC

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It's good to read about how successful this project is proving to be. However, the choice of which infrastructure investments elsewhere are funded still needs to be made carefully. For one thing, there needs to be a customer base, or at least a potential one. This is one of several criteria on which the much hyped East West Rail project fails. The assertion is that Oxford and Cambridge are two major centres of innovation, so there must be substantial demand for journeys between the two. There is actually little evidence to support this, and in fact surveys commissioned by the East West Rail Company revealed little demand for end-to-end journeys. For those who do want to make this journey it's a fairly simple one by rail via London, taking about two and a half hours (which isn't much longer than it would typically take to drive between the two).
If we are going to invest in new rail routes, I would prefer to see the investment go into ones that link centres of economic activity, for example east coast ports via Cambridge to the West Midlands. At present this is a very slow and tortuous rail journey, unless you go via London. Because there is no suitable rail route, most freight from Felixstowe and Harwich is forced to go by road via the A14.