BenWerkman / Ben Werkman is on Nostr

#Bitcoin | Curious Mind | Not Financial Advice | Yes, my posts are long.

Last Notes

2024-12-10 06:50:36 UTC

There are a ton of questions today asking when will Saylor lay off so share price can rise.
I'm getting the sense the bull run recently brought people's time frames in too short and it's causing some pain right now. Please try to avoid making emotion driven investing decisions while price is running hard, nothing goes up in a straight line forever (that wouldn't be healthy). The entire design of this equity is that it will rise and fall generating the volatility Wall St loves. It's the product they've created.
To give you my perspective, I don't think there is likely much laying off the ATM until at a minimum the end of the year. At this stage it seems he has a target for at least 500,000 BTC by year end and at current prices that means he'll need ~$8B in additional purchases over the next 3 weeks.
It's possible $3B comes from a new convertible debt offering before the year closes, so that would mean he'd need $5B from the ATM over 3 weeks. Right now they have $9.19B left on the ATM, so by year end this would bring them down to ~$4.19B. My hunch from there is they ease off the pace a bit and he will try to use that $4.19B up in time for Q4 earnings call where they will likely announce their next updated plan.
This is just my speculation, but it leads me to believe that we should temper our share price expectations over the next 3 weeks (although all that Bitcoin buying will certainly have some impact on the spot BTC price that could trickle into the shares). It's still possible that they allow the shares to breathe for a few days if they get into the QQQ and they let the mNAV expand again so his next ATM uses are more accretive to BTC Yield, but it all depends on their internal goals, execution timelines and expectations for the markets over the next 3 weeks.
They are on a blistering pace right now unlike anything we have seen before and the stock just made a massive repricing rocketing to new all time highs over the the last couple months. We can't lose sight of that.
Patience is key here. We know the strategy and the design, we just need to let it play out and not get ourselves caught in a position where we are 100% directionally correct long term but still lose by putting unnecessary timing risk into our investments (i.e. really short term options trades).