Kent Ray Willard

Chained to the Blue Ridge, where reality shreds the delusions of my own grandeur. I fart around, except when I'm puttering.

Public Key

npub1vnmhvj08uj0m8fkg8fuqlmu35mraewfzljtf4q27cv6wjmuy9cysk6rwv2

NIP-05 Address

kentwillard_at_zirk.us@momostr.pink

Profile Code

nprofile1qqsxfamkf8n7f8an5myr57q0a7g6d37uhy30e956s90vxd8fd7zzuzgpz3mhxue69uhhyetvv9ujuerpd46hxtnfduqs6amnwvaz7tmwdaejumr0dsmqr5ha

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relay.damus.io

nos.lol

Author Public Key

npub1vnmhvj08uj0m8fkg8fuqlmu35mraewfzljtf4q27cv6wjmuy9cysk6rwv2

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Last Notes

2025-02-20 14:39:56 UTC

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In a media of both sides, he said, she said, someone should say something. Producers and publishers want to show an opposing side to make stories more exciting. Someone needs to lead the communication: pick narratives, daily talking points, persuasive spokespeople. You'd think minority leaders of the House and Senate would organize that since they can't legislate now. Nope. Which is to say, they aren't leaders.

2025-02-18 13:42:15 UTC

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We could delete X, Facebook, Instagram, & Amazon accounts, and of course, don't buy Teslas. But that bit of collective action is inconvenient, so -- fascism.

2025-02-13 12:40:59 UTC

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Successful negotiation requires patience and the ability to shut-up.

2025-02-09 12:43:18 UTC

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Musk now seems omnipotent. My guess is that in the next couple of years he shall reap the whirlwind. Then Trump will relish destroying him (I always said EV's wouldn't work). Musk will handle failure worse than success. Then the public and media who love to tear apart celebrities even more than they love to build them up, will dismantle him with glee. It will be open season, but a long admission line.

2025-01-27 13:09:12 UTC

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The alien who walked 1,000 miles to get to America is probably going to make America stronger.

2025-01-27 01:47:26 UTC

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The difficulty isn't in using soft information for approval, but for denial.
I love hard information and models, but people make decisions, not models or algorithms. They are rules of thumb based on aggregates, which often make mistakes on individuals. However, those who override models should first have learned and considered why the model made its prediction.

2025-01-24 13:41:21 UTC

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Much of the joy in the US has been bragging about how much capital they raise and spend on ever larger LLM's with ever smaller marginal returns. Maybe China will wake the investors up.

2025-01-24 13:31:41 UTC

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When you really, really, really, want to take SpaceX public.

2025-01-24 13:28:51 UTC

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An immigrant friend told me that when she grew up, everyone only had raw milk. It was a pain to boil it before they drank it, but everyone did it. Homogenized milk was eventually a welcome convenience.
She noted that raw milk could be safer if consumed from your own cow, but when milked in herds and their milk co-mingled, then bacteria would jump from cow to cow, and would be in all of the milk.

2025-01-23 13:44:05 UTC

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I can't tell if this is an act of corruption, cruelty, or mere incompetence. Is China Trump's buddy now? The low proposed tariff and inaugural invitation suggest it.

2025-01-22 14:02:48 UTC

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Judged through the Gestalt, he is a fascist. Then we're down to categorizing the type of fascist, which seems pedantic.

2025-01-20 13:19:50 UTC

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Last I heard, there were over 80,000 crypto currencies. It costs little time, money, or expertise to 'create' one. Copy, paste, compile.
The value is due to neither scarcity nor technology; it is entirely in marketing.

2025-01-16 13:16:52 UTC

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The saying, "A compensation scheme masquerading as an asset class," applies to more than hedge funds.
The secret to vast wealth is to raise and risk other people's money (investors, banks, governments) - then get lucky. The secret to moderate wealth is to do the same but be unlucky. The essential skill is self-marketing genius.

2025-01-15 13:32:57 UTC

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The paradox that China is the most ruthless capitalist nation on earth, yet leftists continue to believe it is socialist.

2025-01-14 13:24:19 UTC

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A good precedent for Musk buying DJT, along with some foreign capital.

2025-01-13 13:42:10 UTC

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If I am known as too Machiavellian, then I'm not trusted in the future in more aligned coalitions, causing my future power is diminished. Deals with the devil have to be rare and over existential issues. Right now, I'm not sure Elon meets that level of risk, and there's a good chance he destroys himself with drugs and a future billionaire backlash.

2025-01-13 13:33:31 UTC

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Why do many non-MAGA people stay on Xitter (traditional media and bloggers like Noah Smith)? You can't be a voice of reason in the wilderness if your voice is dialed up, down, or muted. You are, at best, a tool or a fig leaf of respectability. I've come to two conclusions: greed and/or you agree with Musk's politics to some degree.

2025-01-10 13:19:43 UTC

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The houses and yards used in Tucson, AZ should be more fire resistant. There's little irrigation, so lawns are mostly gravel, cinderblock walls are common. Stucco and fake tile roofs. I bet if you replaced the roof superstructure with a non-flammable material it would be mostly impervious. The problem remains the scrub vegetation on the outskirts.

2025-01-09 14:05:01 UTC

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There should be a large term premium for long-duration bonds, given all of the policy uncertainty now. I think investors assumed they would get their premium through the Fed lowering the short-end. Nope, so now they priced it in. I bet it reverts to at least historical norms.

2025-01-09 13:55:02 UTC

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Trump Ocean is on the east coasts of The United States of Trump, Trumplandia and Trumpania.

2025-01-08 12:35:31 UTC

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Non-inheritance billionaires have self-selected to a priority system overwhelmed by money. Probably true for centa-millionaires too. 99% of the population would have been satisfied once they hit generational wealth ($50 million, or whatever).
I'm not endorsing inherited wealth; they tend to be coddled and insulated but not mainly driven by money.

2024-08-24 22:39:42 UTC

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In 2024, everyone knows Boeing is incompetent at everything except share buybacks. NASA always contracted out manufacturing (ask Martin Marietta about Challenger's O-rings). Even Saturn V rockets stages were contracted out - but the overall design was NASA's Verner Von Braun, from Nazi Germany.
"It's all the same but different somehow, said the old lady as she kissed the cow."

2024-07-31 14:34:16 UTC

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Grift replaced governance, so they need a cover story.

2024-07-31 13:04:43 UTC

I don't want elected officials to lead a culture war, I want them to run the government.