dylan
Dylan LeClair

I'm Dylan. I like math, markets, technology, and bitcoin.

Public Key

npub1pyp9fqq60689ppds9ec3vghsm7s6s4grfya0y342g2hs3a0y6t0segc0qq

NIP-05 Address

Profile Code

nprofile1qqsqjqj5sqd8arjsskczuugkytcdlgdg25p5jwhjg64y9tcg7hjd9hcpr4mhxue69uhkummnw3ez6ur4vgh8wetvd3hhyer9wghxuet5qy28wumn8ghj7un9d3shjtnyv9kh2uewd9hsyvmr9u

Publishing to

nostr-pub.wellorder.net

relay.damus.io

nos.lol

Author Public Key

npub1pyp9fqq60689ppds9ec3vghsm7s6s4grfya0y342g2hs3a0y6t0segc0qq

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Last Notes

2024-08-27 13:06:15 UTC

Have seen lots of NOSTR posts today on X. Gaining steam following the Telegram news by the looks of it.

2024-04-26 15:54:30 UTC

"And then they fight you..."

2024-01-19 19:50:57 UTC

Value of all #bitcoin at the price they last moved. $BTC
https://m.primal.net/HYXL.mov

2024-01-03 17:43:41 UTC

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Okay? 😂

2024-01-03 17:26:04 UTC

Joined CNBC last night for a few minutes to talk #bitcoin https://m.primal.net/HWSb.mov

2023-12-01 17:35:36 UTC

Talk of ETF approval misses the forest for the trees. It's not just about immediate reactions or flows
It's about the recognition of $BTC as an institutional asset. Pensions, endowments, insurance investment portfolios, etc., will soon be entering the arena with passive buy-side flows for the long term.
In December 2020, Mass Mutual invested $100m into bitcoin. https://t.co/xdMyT7Dxxi
MASSIVE.... except not really. Mass Mutual manage $235b in assets, with long-dated fiat liabilities. https://tinyurl.com/yz3b4hpn
$100m of $BTC is a ~0.05% allocation...
Large institutional investors don't purchase something to flip it the next month. They are constructing portfolios for multiple decades.
A 0.05% allocation is just the start. There are many more many more Mass Mutuals out there, and all of these allocators are staring at their bond portfolio which is -50% from ATHs, questioning previous assumptions they held.
The endorsement by the likes of Larry Fink isn't a sign that Larry is suddenly a bitcoin bull, it's a sign that clients are knocking on BlackRock's door, asking for a vehicle to gain exposure.
The narrative violations are strong. Passive accumulation starting from the $69k ATH has you +45% right now on your bitcoin position. The same passive allocation into long bonds has you -12%.
"But the volatility!" Again, it's a misunderstanding of time horizon. A ~1% allocation to an asset that they don't plan to liquidate for years/decades, with an extremely strong sharpe ratio, is within their risk profile. If you want proof, just look at the rest of their portfolio...
- No, the orange coin is not going away.
- No, it did not die when FTX collapsed.
- Yes, supply is more tightly held than ever before.
- Yes, perpetual credit expansion of the fiat monetary system is an ongoing reality.
- No, there is no sense of fiscal austerity present ANYWHERE.
- Yes, this illiquidity means marginal flows into the market sends the price higher, which is why all of these institutions will start with a tiny ~0.05% stake, while continuing to passively allocate steadily for the long-term.
Reinforcing this all is the shift in narrative and negative bias around 'energy usage' and mining, evidenced by new academic papers on mining as a tool for balancing the grid and monetizing waste energy:
- Bitcoin could support renewable energy development, Cornell Engineering, https://t.co/EZopJJAM2i
- Leveraging Bitcoin Miners as Flexible Load Resources for Power System Stability and Efficiency, Co-authored by former ERCOT CEO, https://t.co/PEpGE65la1
- From Mining to Mitigation: How Bitcoin Can Support Renewable Energy Development and Climate Action, ACS Sustainable Chemistry & Engineering, https://www.resistance.money/research/mining_to_mitigation.pdf
The landscape and profile of the asset has shifted. It's not about the ETF, it's about the reason WHY the ETF is coming. Institutional exposure has been given a green light. It won't happen all at once, but understand the shift that is underway.
Bitcoin has been passively accumulated by individuals and retail for sometime now, while institutions mostly watched the madness from the sideline. This is changing.
Welcome.
https://m.primal.net/HRqB.jpg
https://m.primal.net/HRqC.jpg
https://m.primal.net/HRqD.jpg

2023-11-09 11:31:33 UTC

good morning @npub1qny…95gx
https://m.primal.net/HPju.jpg

2023-11-08 14:49:56 UTC

Thoroughly enjoyed joining @npub1s5y…6q7z on his podcast once again.
We talked about AI, bleeding fixed income, the $BTC market, paper gold vs BTC derivatives, implications of a potential ETF, BitVM, and other exciting developments in the #bitcoin space.
Link: https://www.theinvestorspodcast.com/bitcoin-fundamentals/dylan-leclair-bitcoin-market-overview/

2023-09-14 14:23:31 UTC

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Yeah I just swapped USDT to USDC because I can't redeem at Tether, let's count the million ERC20 tokens swapped on each side as $2m in settlement volume...

2023-09-07 17:59:46 UTC

I said the the free market will solve the "security budget" and crypto twitter lost its collective mind. Amazing.

2023-08-30 17:34:59 UTC

Going live with @npub1qny…95gx in ~30 minutes at 2pm EST. https://www.youtube.com/@CitadelDispatch

2023-08-25 19:27:53 UTC

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im game

2023-06-06 22:26:44 UTC

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No, he's serious, which is the hilarious part.

2023-06-06 21:59:20 UTC

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@npub144r…ag2d have Richard hook you up with the B.TC domain.
I can help you as well if you need it.

2023-06-06 21:53:32 UTC

The amount of Stockholm syndrome displayed on the timeline today on Crypto twitter was truly a sight to behold.
The writing has BEEN on the wall. These people are clueless.
https://void.cat/d/ATgMUvEx4HGL1pEffbpiFG.webp

2023-05-08 18:26:32 UTC

Enough. https://void.cat/d/Bcr26ByjjcCbYsnC5yunFt.webp

2023-04-25 21:39:50 UTC

This entire game is about energy preservation & appreciation of your purchasing power, over medium/long periods of time. Strip all of the economic & financial dogma away, and keep it simple:
Technology is more advanced than ever, yet prices keep going up, as more units of currency perpetuate the system; it never ends.
The idea of an absolutely scarce monetary asset with supply inelasticity relative to demand, tied directly to energy markets with an ever increasing marginal production cost, is so profound, that most dismiss it outright; are repulsed by it even. It breaks worldviews.
A majority of people are so comfortably dependent on the incumbent system, that they will decide defend a ticking time bomb.
A small minority understand the system as it exists from within, yet defend it for reasons of self interest and greed; dishonorable but understandable given the incentives.
The rest are useful idiots, defending the system while being exploited by its very existence. This cohort is definitively in the blast radius, due to their own sheer ignorance and/or incompetence.
On the other side, there exists an intransigent and uncompromising minority of people who have come to understand the ultimate reality of both systems. Economic game theory and a desire for a different rules based order leads them to simply just leave to start playing a different game entirely.

2023-04-25 21:39:47 UTC

2023-04-25 21:39:41 UTC

2023-04-07 22:38:07 UTC

I will be building this for NOSTR too. Give me a few weeks or so. https://nostr.build/i/nostr.build_dd7108a762a0a62c31e3aeed3d8f1e7bf2bb1f82c0c8c36f7077ab9347f54c7f.jpeg

2023-04-04 01:48:42 UTC

Is worthwhile to post charts/analysis here, even if it is similar or even a direct copy of what I post on Twitter.
Let me know 👊

2023-02-21 20:10:21 UTC

How do I enable zaps? I am out of the loop.

2023-02-07 19:51:37 UTC

What’s the best NOSTR platform for a MacBook user?

2023-02-05 20:25:46 UTC

🟠💊 https://youtu.be/uBMUGChTp4w

2023-02-03 04:33:23 UTC

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Wow that was easy…
WOW

2023-02-02 23:37:25 UTC

Signal to noise ratio on here compared to twitter is insane.

2023-02-01 17:29:18 UTC

What’s the future of relays look like? Are there incentives to run NOSTR relays for any reasons other than altruism? I’m trying to understand the model if this is to scale up by multiple orders of magnitude.

2022-12-21 06:07:59 UTC

op return https://mempool.space/tx/7f59271b2afb3bbf2b3aa38fd07f14e4f129169fa8d489e8557ade048dfd6806

2022-12-21 04:42:13 UTC

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tried that out today, pretty cool

2022-12-21 04:32:00 UTC

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idek lol im just getting my bearings. gonna read the github more thoroughly in a bit

2022-12-21 04:30:01 UTC

Its a little clunky, but encrypted lightning enabled social media is very promising.

2022-12-21 04:15:39 UTC

Bitcoin nostr poppin off

2022-12-20 18:36:49 UTC

yo #[0]