Aaron

I write short fiction, RPGs, and design landscapes in the real world. Here I share thoughts.

Website: https://subterfugue.com

Last Notes

2026-07-08 14:33:06 UTC

Calling out Moraff is warranted.
Looking back on Platner’s rise and saying that we should have seen the signs is absurd.
Platner did go through a vetting process. It’s called a campaign where you enter public life and have to stand up against all the shit that gets thrown at you. He failed.
This is how Democracy works. It is messy.
When Democracy isn’t messy, the redflags are being hidden from you.
https://paydayreport.com/platners-guru-daniel-moraff-asked-me-to-lie-for-him-i-didnt/

2026-06-26 22:11:28 UTC

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https://ipm.ucanr.edu/natural-enemies/aphid-aphidius-parasitoids/#gsc.tab=0
Provide an overwintering native plant for parasitoid wasps and ladybugs and you'll be fine.
If you are in california, plant deer grass (muhlenbergia rigens) coffeeberry (rhamnus californica), dwarf coyote brush (baccharis pilularis 'twin peaks')
ALSO, aphids are wind blown. So the plants which get it the worst are those which are on the edges facing the wind. Sometimes it is good to plant the hedge of coffeeberry or border lawn of deer grass and wildflowers at the windblown edge.

2026-05-29 19:10:51 UTC

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No, government intervention is a bailout, period. I'm not interested in getting into a debate over semantics on this. Its a waste of my time.
But yes, this instance is also particularly problematic due to the conflicts of interest and corruption.
I still encourage you to actually read the paper or listen to the podcast to get at the economics of this problem.
Otherwise I am out. You aren't really talking about the same thing here, and it is tiresome to be shouted at by someone who throws up walls of text without actually digesting what they are responding to.

2026-05-29 18:49:39 UTC

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That chart has a caption in a gray box, "Market structure of the AI sector".
BTW I already mentioned up thread the issues with government bailout as a mitigating factor.
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Ok. maybe a paper is far too much to expect anyone to actually read through.
Half of this podcast has an author of the paper on it to talk about the subject of the Bubble or Nothing paper. I encourage you to listen to that.
https://www.organizedmoney.fm/p/the-ai-bubble-everyone-wants-to-pop

2026-05-29 18:26:54 UTC

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Just read this
https://publicenterprise.org/report/bubble-or-nothing/

2026-05-29 17:58:51 UTC

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The investment was largely circular.

2026-05-29 15:02:27 UTC

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My comment already covers all the factors you just mentioned. So what exactly are you disagreeing with?

2026-05-29 14:21:50 UTC

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I haven't. Whoever has been waiting two years for this to pop hasn't done their homework.
Some of the key pressures that could pop this bubble are:
- when the debt comes due for the data center build out
- and when the appetite for NVidia's GPUs declines.
There may be others but these are the two I have been aware of.
Mitigating factors are:
- the rich people funding this shit and how much longer they will do so.
- And a possible government bailout. The shit heels of the AI "industry" have already floated this one, and it is why they like Trump, and it is why they push the spectre of China as a competitor, and it is also why they push SciFi woo woo bullshit about AI dangers.
These pressures are mounting and the mitigating factors are in play. I don't know when they go critical. 6-12 months from now? But It is something like that.

2026-05-29 03:32:53 UTC

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Yes, but in 2008 financial institutions were at risk of failure. this bubble does not directly compromise the financial sector. it's just going to create fallout from these bad investments.
the primary danger this time around is that the AI bubble has been the only form of economic "growth" since Trump entered office and on top of that it is going to pop while we are suffering from the economic fallout of the Iran war.
It is going to be a rough year.

2026-05-29 03:20:14 UTC

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Thankfully these are not financial institutions. We can live without these companies.

2026-05-29 03:16:42 UTC

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It is more like 2008 than most recognize.

2026-05-14 16:51:23 UTC

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Uh huh. I know what your article is about and I am responding to your statement that seems to equate lawlessness with less fascism, but it doesn't work that way.

2026-05-14 16:44:23 UTC

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This is the kind of stuff they removed from the FBI.
https://apnews.com/article/fbi-public-corruption-squad-trump-0478a9f5884b443e1f0403a1f6dad49e

2026-05-07 23:48:07 UTC

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prove the gains in productivity with something tangible that doesn’t hide externalized costs.
Layoffs and financial growth are not productivity gains by any real measure.

2026-03-10 15:41:50 UTC

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that's good for a first draft as you are figuring it all out. You can go back through it on revision and limit the info to only what is essential to the story in that moment.