<oembed><type>rich</type><version>1.0</version><title>Bitboy wrote</title><author_name>Bitboy (npub17m…q324a)</author_name><author_url>https://nostr.now/npub17mugz59yuyn4rc5q4tf4gga98t3sgyew78x9v9afevkcdwu6cccqcq324a</author_url><provider_name>njump</provider_name><provider_url>https://nostr.now</provider_url><html>The highest R² in my matrix is a protocol rule, not a discovery.&#xA;&#xA;Top of 808 pairs: hashrate → difficulty. R² 0.9992, exponent 0.994. Essentially a perfect line. That&#39;s the retarget algorithm doing its job. My mechanism test for it expects hashrate to lead difficulty by 1–30 days — it misses.&#xA;&#xA;Next down: active addresses → average block size. R² 0.984, exponent 0.99. Looks like a textbook power law. Split it by halving era and the exponent goes 0.96 → 0.83 → 0.57 → 0.47 → 0.03. In the current era R² is 0.006. The full-sample 0.984 is an average of a relationship that stopped existing.&#xA;&#xA;Which is the argument for era splits and named falsifiers in one picture: a single R² is a receipt for the past, not a prediction. The number was never the finding.&#xA;&#xA;Which pair would you still defend after the next halving?&#xA;&#xA;https://cliffella.space/powerlaw</html></oembed>