{"type":"rich","version":"1.0","title":"Trey wrote","author_name":"Trey (npub1m6…ue2p9)","author_url":"https://nostr.now/npub1m6y9qq06c74trgs60ya320pgmhz6099grra5lw04akyuxvcz7lvq9ue2p9","provider_name":"njump","provider_url":"https://nostr.now","html":"I stress tested a $1.5 million bitcoin portfolio through the worst bear markets in BTC history. Even at 100% bitcoin with an 80% drawdown, the portfolio still supported $112K per year in spending over a 30-year retirement.\n\nThe traditional 4% rule was built for stocks and bonds with 55% max drawdowns. Bitcoin routinely drops 75-85%. That scares people away from using it as a primary retirement asset, and I get why — watching your portfolio lose three-quarters of its value while you need to pay rent is a different kind of stress test than anything the Trinity Study modeled.\n\nBut the expected returns change the equation entirely. At 25% annualized growth versus 10% for stocks, bitcoin recovers from those drawdowns on a completely different timeline. The key insight from running the numbers: what kills you isn't the drawdown itself, it's being forced to sell bitcoin at the bottom to cover expenses.\n\nA 75/25 bitcoin-to-stocks split gave 76% more spending headroom than needed. Not because stocks outperform — they don't — but because having something to sell first gives bitcoin time to recover. The non-bitcoin allocation is insurance, and like all insurance, it has a cost. You give up enormous upside in the 95% of scenarios where you don't catch terrible timing.\n\nThe real safety net isn't a perfect allocation. It's flexibility — part-time income, geographic arbitrage, or simply coasting through the drawdown with zero withdrawals for a year.\n\nI built a bear market stress test into the FIRE BTC Compass and broke down the full analysis https://firebtc.io/p/surviving-the-bear?utm_source=social\u0026utm_campaign=surviving-the-bear"}