Last Notes
The actual wealth doesn’t disappear or get destroyed, it gets redenominated. Paper wealth, on the other hand…
GM. The bus driver locked the door and told everyone that the voting system works.
https://i.nostr.build/fjJXmZ73cV9AVpbpljqauM.jpg
Saw a pod recently with two physicists who study it. They said it tends *overestimate* future price. The justification for its shape is always primarily attributed to the network effect. The fiat error term is never discussed, which is why IMO thinking in terms of total global wealth is more insightful.
https://i.nostr.build/ZdjdRUz3cPLqffjRxEnxmO.jpg
For perspective, that’d be a price in 2026 dollars, of ~$1.44M.
Yes, that’s what I’m saying. And yet AFAIK power law people never address this.
Gunpowder 👀
https://i.nostr.build/LCOOJzuebRQj2luxctUKHl.jpg
This is the beauty of using relative to total global wealth; the fiat error term is nullified. But to your point specifically, yes I’d also agree. That would mean that other monies are growing their monetary premia relative to Bitcoin, which means Bitcoin’s moneyness is declining.
Tail emissions inherently means more than 21M.
If Bitcoin was 3% of total global wealth in 2070, would you consider it a success or failure?
#nevent1q…etnp
Proponents admit that it’s better at fitting to the past, R^2 is very high 0.97, than forecasting the future. In fact, they say that it tends to *overestimate* future price.
Slavoj Žižek sleep paralysis demon belongs on Nostr. #KeepNostrWeird
https://v.nostr.build/uwF4KxYtn5zn7hsthz2yAw.mov
Thanks?
https://i.nostr.build/DBuwF9QMqKPT9Af2ljlvm3.gif
I always refer back to this.
https://i.nostr.build/C0meeH4mHb0CcVCmohxHVZ.jpg
That sounds like an opposing force? That is, human stupidity will *suppress* adoption in a way that can’t be modeled.
Yes
https://i.nostr.build/FoyTe03Djj7dvOE2aqc9or.gif
IIRC, at the start of the Iran war he more or less said TLDR: the war was theatre and that a “negotiated settlement” was already in place. Implying that it wouldn’t last long.
My biggest gripe with him is that he puts out so much content consistently and makes so many predictions about geopolitics that he constantly moves his goalpost. He might not even know he’s doing it because it can even happen gradually.
Op? Eh. Clout chaser? Yea. Also too blackpilled for my taste.
What power law and diminishing returns cannot account for is, among other things:
A tinderbox of distrust in the State’s legitimacy, taxation, and money.
That cannot be mathematically modeled.
#nevent1q…yae4
For as bullish and accurate as people believe power law is, it will only have Bitcoin at ~3% of total global wealth in 2070.
That would be a CAGR (in terms of percent of total global wealth) of 6.8%. How bullish does power law make you feel now?
GM. We like to have fun here.
https://v.nostr.build/MscfiUJuExBxVxf4DUrvEc.mov
GM #Tolkienstr
https://i.nostr.build/1EbVaE5ZgMkzRato9KjSNE.jpg
The people who are being most hurt by the fiat system don’t have enough money to buy Bitcoin, such that it meaningfully punishes the fiat system in protest.
The people who most benefit from the fiat system have most of the wealth, but won’t buy Bitcoin (in protest or to punish the fiat system) because the fiat system is working well for them and their debt is denominated in fiat.
So you basically need two types of adopters.
1. The poor masses start earning and spending in Bitcoin, which has massive advantages because of tax avoidance, similar to cash. Then saving at the margin.
2. The wealthy individuals, banks, businesses, funds, etc eventually *defect*, which is how cartels invariably break. And/or they flee a sinking ship. I suspect this group adopts more towards the endgame of gradually then suddenly.
https://i.nostr.build/goXiiZb5gE4o6PQbmiHbfJ.jpg
On the first part, I don’t see it as a technical obstacle, but a financial one. I.e. hardly anyone will be able to afford a UTXO.
On custodial KYC, I see it as: the more popular a custodian grows, the higher risk of it being attacked by the State to KYC. But that could be an infinite cat and mouse game to move to the next nonKYC custodian. A (unprofitable) game that the State might not be able to afford to play indefinitely, one can hope.
Also, I reluctantly admit that KYC might actually have a benefit: it gives you stronger claim/recourse from rugs.
- Not that many people, say 1%, will be *able* to use LN in a self-sovereign, privacy preserving way.
- Therefore, almost everyone will have to use some kind of custodian, be it blended or full.
- Custodian means KYC.
- KYC means tax. Income and business taxes.
- Transaction taxes mean the State continues in its same form, only without a printer of last resort.
What am I missing?
GM ☕️
https://i.nostr.build/DlLA79gmqGX5kvCcd5f5uN.jpg
Sir, you forgot the obligatory meme.
https://i.nostr.build/26llcDgH9XMH6lxyb30WjM.png
Bro “stock-chain” stop giving them ideas 😭🤫
https://i.nostr.build/jqu1db2K34codEuumWudQN.gif
https://i.nostr.build/pmoPOWx0IvzVy1kAfnLXya.jpg
Videos are so back. Swagger is so back.
https://v.nostr.build/ZKGCnadKCuwV2ujDW7170c.mov
#nevent1q…vt7c
https://i.nostr.build/0WwoVhx1IRPukX6Nj6QDTE.jpg
https://i.nostr.build/4F8n0XNrIauns04xINbXLo.jpg
GM. The vibe today. What’s yours?
https://v.nostr.build/kC5jCQw2yJAdsSx9kX8fMd.mp4
Also, as I’ve been the lone voice saying this for years: Ironically, the greatest bulwark against a CBDC are commercial banks. They stand to lose the most by being disintermediated and funny enough, their best tool to prevent that might actually be Bitcoin.
Either way, it’s all good for Bitcoin and good for me.
1. Draconian CBDC in one database: great advertisement for Bitcoin.
2. Commercial banks and central banks slugging it out: good for Bitcoin.
Whatever they do invariably hastens fiat’s demise. I think a lot of people have lose sight of that and the fact that you cannot insulate yourself from the consequences of someone else holding money that’s harder than yours. Cheers.
There’s nothing stopping the current fiat architecture from doing that right now. You don’t need a “blockchain” to do this. Your bank can do it tomorrow without a “CBDC”.
Insufficient. More. A lot more. Programmable how? Whitney and the 100IQ Right just say these buzzword shibboleths without understanding what the words mean/imply and how they’d actually do it at a technical level. Most of these people still think that other “blockchains” are viable, which they aren’t.
That’s the crux of it isn’t it. They still support censorship of *other people* not in their group.
Isn’t it strange that socialists use/build a parallel “decentralized” media protocol in Bluesky? Light digging reveals it has more similar properties to Nostr than I thought. Can anyone weigh in on the similarities/differences between Bluesky and Nostr?
Ultimately, I can’t see how you could build a truly censorship resistant and self-sovereign social protocol when the unifying ethos of your users is: I support the use of violence against private property.
Sorry but.
https://i.nostr.build/Np5qs94vKu241DV0NPHGto.jpg
Strong hypothesis (not theory). IMO, the only problem is that stablecoins and other “blockchains” are probably less secure than the current system of (dare I say, decentralized) banks and credit unions. The term “digital dollar/Euro” doesn’t mean anything. It’s not digital now? How will it become *more* digital? Not that many people truly understand how this stuff works. They just repeat buzzwords without understanding the architecture and think it’s trivial to transfer everything over “to the blockchain.”
We should be friends if you know the difference between “theory” and “hypothesis”…and you’re an annoying stickler about the difference.
Use of the two words interchangeably is a rampant plague.
Lord Humungus has spoken.
https://i.nostr.build/VJR0ZutLdNrjh40mM7xx7R.jpg
Bitcoin has taken a bunch of hits from bugs and exploits lately.
Can we finally get some for fiat? I’m talking DTCC, NYSE, FDIC, and the like. They deserve some shots across the bow too so copper tops can start to question the integrity of their pantheon of financial gods.
My mental image for the intellect of people who believe in and work on: tokenization, stablecoins, digital assets, bLoCkChAiNs, etc etc.
And oh boy, you’d be shocked by their salaries! 😬
https://i.nostr.build/7W3oaZYxspSRaLUjW6wsVV.jpg
Tokenization doesn’t fix anything. Just stop scamming already.
https://v.nostr.build/LCLilMyGuEwI6uV3TWtRTh.mov
#nevent1q…dzf7
https://i.nostr.build/R7ldUPYOzjCRNXVEPO1zVX.jpg
LFG
https://i.nostr.build/XmHdzBatGNuvIiaPlnRIdQ.gif
Shut down the on ramps. Shut down the off ramps. I exit.
https://v.nostr.build/MiD4TlAnV6ptt3ZU9JejDr.mov
#nevent1q…cey3
