Last Notes
Voce não conhece o queijo Minas da Serra da canastra 😸
You travel around without planning how long to stay? And how does the app know where you are? You keep location services always on, sharing your location with every other app that has the permission. Maybe you can use another app that does your permissions administration automatically so you don't have to do it yourself and save you some time.
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I don't know what your interpretation is for short/mid/long term. But with gold we will see a revaluation if we get a monetary reset. It hasn't happened yet since this manipulation round started in 1971. It could happen tomorrow but it could easily take another 20 years.
So the short and midterm for gold is already continuing for more then 50 years. The elites have effectively eliminated this form of sound money through their manipulation schemes. Frractionaly reserved gold paper markets. The manipulation is possible because nobody asks for delivery of the gold after a futures contract expires. So the seller can sell the same gold more then once. And if a buyer does ask for delivery and the seller can't deliver the contracts are settled in cash (USD). The US can sell through intermediaries unlimited amounts of gold this way as they have no problem if they can't deliver, because they can settle in a currency (USD) that they can print themselves.
The Chinese do ask for delivery and this way they nuke the manipulation scheme making the monetary reset nearby.
With cryptocurrencies delivery is not a physical problem like with gold. So manipulating bitcoin or monero would be more difficult as you can easily take it in self custody. You can fractionaly reserve anything as long as the manipulator can take custody of the asset (CEX'S and ETFs).
But with perpetual futures contracts custody is not even necessary. So how would the manipulation work?
So how is a perpetual futures contact for monero settled (in which currency?) So let's say you are long and the price of monero declines you would be margin called in what currency? If it is in Fiat USD then we have the USA who can manipulate the market.
Another point is how the spot price for the perpetual futures market is calculated. The perpetual futures market is supposedly following the spot price. But my expectation is that the definition of how to calculate it is open for manipulation. I haven't researched it, but I would not be surprised if they would say something like: it is a weighted average dependent on the trading volume on spot markets and perpetual futures markets. The last making it completely open to manipulation.
I guess what I want to say is that I do not think the manipulation is something innocent, but can be really damaging, like we have seen with gold.
Thanks for the response, i'll have to dive more in to it. I think you are right that in the longterm the price will find its real value, but I think short and midterm influence is significant.
Look at gold, people knowing about the manipulation in the paper gold market know that the price is surpressed and they are saying this for decades. They bought gold and the problem is: why should you buy something which maybe is not going to appreciate in your lifetime?
In that sense monero has two advantages:
1. It is usable
2. It is traded in decentralized exchanged
Ad 2. The banning of monero from centralized exchanges is a blessing in disguise. At least the manipulation through centralized exchanges (with unfunded accounts) is not possible.
I am bullish on monero!
Not directly related on the topic, but what is the influence of perpetual futures trading on the price (of monero)? There is no actual exchange of monero possible with a contract like that. You can't deposit or withdraw monero.
I have a feeling that the volume for this kind of trading is used to manipulate the spot price.
The volume in these trades is with supply that is non existent. So a kind of supply out of nothing (= money creation).
Was interested in your thoughts.
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