Nostr notes by Adam Isacson

Here's a bit more on this. I hope it's just a one-off, ...

2026-10-30T16:13:54Z

In reply to nevent1q…j6lw
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Here's a bit more on this. I hope it's just a one-off, and not CBP joining DHS's trend toward "here's a number… no, you don't get to see how we derive it" opacity: https://adamisacson.com/unusually-late-border-data-from-cbp/

It's the last working day of October, and CBP still ...

2026-10-30T14:47:12Z

It's the last working day of October, and CBP still hasn't posted any details about migrant apprehensions in September. Still nothing about results for fiscal 2026, which ended 9/30, except a border-wide number in a press release.

You'd think they'd want to brag about how suspending asylum rights caused border crossings to plummet. But without more detail, media don't have much to work with.

Flávio Bolsonaro wants to apply for asylum in the US… - But ...

2026-10-28T20:11:52Z

Flávio Bolsonaro wants to apply for asylum in the US…

- But the Trump administration's immigration courts denied 94% of cases last month.
- But Stephen Miller says asylum is “fake.”
- But all asylum seekers are at risk of being sent to Liberia or the Central African Republic.

This is the 6th lethal boat strike in the past 4 months. The pace ...

2026-10-27T19:24:55Z

This is the 6th lethal boat strike in the past 4 months. The pace is slower than before, but the administration and its commanders persist in grinding out illegal killings every few weeks, with no discernible impact on the drug trade. A bleak pre-midterms message.

https://www.southcom.mil/News/PressReleases/Article/4634591/lethal-kinetic-strike-october-27-2026/

Wow. “51.8 percent of the vote versus 48.2 percent.” ...

2026-10-26T07:23:59Z

Wow. “51.8 percent of the vote versus 48.2 percent.”

https://www.nytimes.com/2026/10/25/world/americas/brazil-election-president-lula-bolsonaro.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share

This piece by Blair Goodman at NACLA is the most thorough ...

2026-10-22T07:34:24Z

This piece by Blair Goodman at NACLA is the most thorough reporting I've seen about the US military presence at bases in #Ecuador. It explains the recent history and digs into contracting details.

https://nacla.org/ecuadorians-voted-against-foreign-bases-but-one-is-being-assembled-anyway/

While many of Latin America's most shamelessly corrupt live ...

2026-10-19T11:11:06Z

While many of Latin America's most shamelessly corrupt live lavishly—at times with US properties and visas—the family of Guatemala's admired former anti-corruption official Juan Francisco Solórzano Foppa, who was murdered on Saturday, is seeking donations to pay for his funeral.

https://www.prensalibre.com/guatemala/familia-de-solorzano-foppa-solicita-apoyo-para-gastos-funerarios-fechas-de-velacion-y-sepelio-de-las-dos-victimas/

Let's repost that chart without the legend shifted weirdly ...

2026-10-17T13:43:40Z

In reply to nevent1q…t6d8
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Let's repost that chart without the legend shifted weirdly out of frame, sorry about that:

The number of children and families being apprehended has ...

2026-10-17T13:33:05Z

In reply to nevent1q…u5v6
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The number of children and families being apprehended has cratered, a sign that people seeking asylum or other protection in the US—likely a majority of apprehensions circa 2014-2024—have stopped coming. (2/2)

2026 saw the fewest migrant apprehensions at the U.S.-Mexico ...

2026-10-17T13:32:41Z

2026 saw the fewest migrant apprehensions at the U.S.-Mexico border since 1967.

The main reasons:
- The suspension of asylum access at the border, probably unlawful but in place since January 2025.
- The climate of fear “mass deportation” has created in the U.S. interior. (1/2)

https://bit.ly/3VSesjf

Look what's happened to asylum case outcomes in US ...

2026-10-16T21:08:13Z

Look what's happened to asylum case outcomes in US immigration court. Under the Trump admin, rushed decisions have exploded, and the overwhelming majority have been denied.

FY 2001-2024: 55% denials.
2025: 68% denials.
2026 (Aug): 88% denials.

Data in alt text.

https://tracreports.org/phptools/immigration/asylum/

Here's a post with what I know about the U.S. Jungle ...

2026-10-16T18:36:07Z

Here's a post with what I know about the U.S. Jungle Operations Training Course in Panama, which restarted in 2025 and is now in the news because of a big reported deployment.

https://adamisacson.com/some-facts-about-the-u-s-jungle-operations-training-course-in-panama/

Public safety has improved in Caracas, the NYT's Simon Romero ...

2026-10-16T17:10:59Z

Public safety has improved in Caracas, the NYT's Simon Romero writes, because Venezuela's regime out-Bukele'd Bukele. Instead of massively incarcerating young men, the security forces and death squads just straight-up extrajudicially executed many thousands.

https://www.nytimes.com/2026/10/16/world/americas/caracas-venezuela-crime-raids-icc.html

I still don't understand why they blow up the boats (in these ...

2026-10-16T16:36:35Z

I still don't understand why they blow up the boats (in these non-lethal cases) and fail to share incriminating proof (if there is any) with #Ecuador prosecutors.

"Refueling boats" are a real challenge, but the strategy looks brain-dead when a lack of evidence forces judges to acquit boat crews.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2026/10/16/us-says-it-seized-boats-narco-terrorists-gives-ecuador-no-evidence/

"By the end of 2025, Latin America was home to 22.5 million ...

2026-10-16T12:38:41Z

"By the end of 2025, Latin America was home to 22.5 million forcibly displaced people, including 9.9 million internally displaced people."

If the forcibly displaced were a country, 22.5m would make them the 7th-largest in Latin America. More than Chile.

https://reliefweb.int/report/world/analisis-regional-de-proteccion-en-america-latina-y-el-caribe-2026

US Embassy in Panama statement: ...

2026-10-16T12:26:25Z

In reply to nevent1q…ugzv
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US Embassy in Panama statement: https://pa.usembassy.gov/es/declaracion-de-la-embajada-de-estados-unidos-en-panama/

I think the statement misidentifies where the Southern Vanguard exercise will take place. It did happen in Peru last month, but SV27 is slated for Colombia and Argentina.

RE: https://elefanti.co/@adam/117440892400227707 Parsing the US ...

2026-10-16T12:26:00Z

RE: https://elefanti.co/@adam/117440892400227707

Parsing the US Embassy in Panama's denial of the NY Times revelation of 600 US troops going to Panama, it seems to be 600, but not *all at once*?

The Times said "the first elements of a 600-soldier battalion in Panama…have begun deploying." The denial implies a more rotational deployment. We'll see.

quoting
note1hxz…ygqp

New stuff here:

- 600 army personnel to train in Panama, and then with Colombian and Honduran forces
- A new civilian Pentagon office, given $20m, to "help oversee the military's counter-cartel activities" (there's already a new "Joint Task Force Western Hemisphere" and a new "US Army WH Command")

https://www.nytimes.com/2026/10/14/us/politics/us-troops-latin-america.html?unlocked_article_code=1.IlE.FhlF.0Qj3oLVM_BeI&smid=nytcore-ios-share

Alert Kristi Noem's video team: Costa Rica now has a ...

2026-10-15T19:16:29Z

Alert Kristi Noem's video team: Costa Rica now has a mega-prison, capacity 5,100, that resembles El Salvador’s CECOT. (It’s called “CACCO.”)

“President Laura Fernández and her predecessor, Rodrigo Chaves, used the prison’s opening as an opportunity to lash out at judicial officials, whom they blame for the security crisis.”

https://www.divergentes.com/megacarcel-cacco-costa-rica-laura-fernandez-modelo-bukele/

Photos of U.S. Marines preparing to blow up a tree on September ...

2026-10-15T10:27:38Z

Photos of U.S. Marines preparing to blow up a tree on September 30 somewhere in Ecuador (probably the Taura base near Guayaquil).

https://www.dvidshub.net/image/9996094/lcf-24-tree-demolition

As #CostaRica opens its first El Salvador-style mega-prison, a ...

2026-10-15T02:06:01Z

As #CostaRica opens its first El Salvador-style mega-prison, a ruling party legislator says “I’m absolutely sick and tired of hearing all this talk about human rights.”

https://delfino.cr/2026/10/diputada-oficialista-dice-estar-harta-de-oir-los-discursos-sobre-derechos-humanos

New stuff here: - 600 army personnel to train in Panama, and then ...

2026-10-14T19:23:24Z

New stuff here:

- 600 army personnel to train in Panama, and then with Colombian and Honduran forces
- A new civilian Pentagon office, given $20m, to "help oversee the military's counter-cartel activities" (there's already a new "Joint Task Force Western Hemisphere" and a new "US Army WH Command")

https://www.nytimes.com/2026/10/14/us/politics/us-troops-latin-america.html?unlocked_article_code=1.IlE.FhlF.0Qj3oLVM_BeI&smid=nytcore-ios-share

Medellín, #Colombia's homicide rate was similar to Los ...

2026-10-14T14:01:57Z

Medellín, #Colombia's homicide rate was similar to Los Angeles's last year, lower than Houston or Dallas.

But the Peace and Reconciliation Foundation think-tank warns, "When criminal orgs can maintain their businesses without conflict, they have reasons to curb the killings and uphold that order."

https://www.pares.com.co/quien-sostiene-el-orden-en-medellin/

For $3,000-$10,000, you can get a seat somewhere near #Argentina ...

2026-10-14T13:46:35Z

For $3,000-$10,000, you can get a seat somewhere near #Argentina President Javier Milei at the "Hispanic Heritage Gala" in Washington DC.

Or you could use that money to take your family on an amazing vacation to Patagonia, Mendoza wine country, and Buenos Aires.

https://cenital.com/milei-otra-vez-viaja-a-estados-unidos/

Here's what #Chile’s new government is using its resources ...

2026-10-14T11:43:02Z

Here's what #Chile’s new government is using its resources to place along its border with #Peru. 16 tons each.

https://www.defensa.com/chile/ejercito-chile-refuerza-frontera-arica-parinacota-grandes-moles

"Public lands do not become military installations simply ...

2026-10-14T11:35:51Z

"Public lands do not become military installations simply because the president says so, and the military cannot be handed sweeping new authority to police civilians by drawing a line around land that belonged to the public."

https://www.southernborder.org/new_lawsuit_challenges_administrations_unlawful_militarization_of_public_lands_along_southern_border

13.5 months into the US's lethal boat strikes, cocaine ...

2026-10-14T10:59:34Z

13.5 months into the US's lethal boat strikes, cocaine "supply is outstripping demand to the point that prices are plunging" in the US.

This piece details many deviously innovative ways that traffickers have adjusted… not really seeing Southcom's vaunted “systemic friction” here.

https://www.wsj.com/world/americas/cocaine-trade-is-booming-despite-airstrikes-72ec0826?st=TB2k2W

Here's a post with what I know about recent U.S. transfers or ...

2026-10-12T13:49:05Z

Here's a post with what I know about recent U.S. transfers or uses of drone technology in Latin America: https://adamisacson.com/u-s-policy-and-drones-in-latin-america-some-recent-developments/

Hello executive branch employees, both civilian and military. ...

2026-10-09T16:47:41Z

Hello executive branch employees, both civilian and military.

Unless something changes, you have 55 more days during which you can truthfully say "I don't work for an institution that livestreams public firing-squad executions."

Savor those days.

New boat strike tonight. Yes, they're still happening. The ...

2026-10-05T01:45:44Z

New boat strike tonight. Yes, they're still happening. The death toll now stands at 238.

https://x.com/Southcom/status/2106920022035538136

If you're a fan of cattle pastures full of giant tree stumps, ...

2026-10-05T01:45:07Z

If you're a fan of cattle pastures full of giant tree stumps, I've got a first-round election result for you.

Last Friday, I sat in a witness box in El Paso answering ...

2026-10-04T20:00:00Z

Last Friday, I sat in a witness box in El Paso answering questions about a place I’ve never visited.

My border-data nerdery helped build the case to halt border barrier construction in the Big Bend. A preliminary injunction is now in place.

A rundown: https://adamisacson.com/spreadsheets-1-bulldozers-0-for-now

Flying back to DC, still savoring yesterday’s win halting ...

2026-10-03T11:30:54Z

Flying back to DC, still savoring yesterday’s win halting border barrier construction in and near Big Bend National Park.

My testimony dove deeply into the numbers showing that Big Bend is *not* an area of high illegal entry.

The transcript will show me saying, “OK this is going to get really nerdy.” And yeah, it was.

From https://www.marfapublicradio.org/news/2026-10-02/judge-halts-big-bend-area-border-wall-construction-use-of-federal-waivers

Do you like watching acrobats and contortionists at the circus, ...

2026-10-01T10:41:18Z

Do you like watching acrobats and contortionists at the circus, bending in impossible directions and twisting themselves in knots?

Then you’ll love DOJ’s secret legal memo seeking to justify the lethal boat strikes, if this case manages to declassify it.

https://www.aclu.org/press-releases/court-rejects-bulk-of-trump-administrations-rationale-for-keeping-boat-strikes-memo-secret

On #Venezuela’s side of the border (Táchira), could be ...

2026-10-01T01:27:36Z

On #Venezuela’s side of the border (Táchira), could be significant: “The first reported combat between the Venezuelan security forces and the ELN since #Colombia President Abelardo de la Espriella’s August arrival in power.”

https://elpitazo.net/regiones/fundaredes-enfrentamiento-entre-eln-y-gnb-deja-un-muerto-y-cinco-heridos-en-tachira/

What an incredibly sad headline for anyone who knows and loves ...

2026-09-30T18:17:44Z

What an incredibly sad headline for anyone who knows and loves #CostaRica, or anyone worried about democratic backsliding in our hemisphere: "More Costa Ricans are seeking asylum abroad; activists and journalists are fleeing political persecution."

https://semanariouniversidad.com/pais/mas-costarricenses-piden-refugio-en-el-exterior-activistas-y-comunicadores-huyen-por-persecucion-politica/

I'm testifying as an expert witness… flying out to El Paso ...

2026-09-29T19:42:25Z

I'm testifying as an expert witness… flying out to El Paso on Thursday. This hearing is important: https://biologicaldiversity.org/w/news/press-releases/hearing-on-big-bend-border-construction-set-for-friday-2026-09-29/

If you're in Washington tomorrow and want a more hopeful take ...

2026-09-29T13:42:38Z

If you're in Washington tomorrow and want a more hopeful take on a key aspect of #Colombia’s 10-year-old peace accord, join us at the Notre Dame Keough School's Washington office at 10:00. RSVP here: https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLScDtsf-BiZ6snxMDvInZJvCAVHhy3PYyih88owbdSgrEMLWaA/viewform

“The result is tens of thousands of children being shuffled ...

2026-09-28T23:56:22Z

“The result is tens of thousands of children being shuffled among the houses of anxious temporary caregivers. It can take months to procure the passports, visas, and other permissions necessary to transport children to their parents, many of whom have been deported to countries whose governments can’t help, or won’t.”

https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/2026/11/trump-ice-family-separation/688695/?gift=UP0ght9QmetEJoGqhSXs6gjQJ-AuskqmA98jmiqV4ng

"In the Trump administration’s signature Venezuelan gold ...

2026-09-28T12:57:51Z

"In the Trump administration’s signature Venezuelan gold venture, the United States is importing bars that contain at least some amount of gold linked to Tren de Guayana."

"Material support to organized crime" should not be official US government policy.

https://www.nytimes.com/2026/09/28/world/americas/venezuela-gold-trump.html

I'm very much looking forward to participating in this ...

2026-09-28T12:10:21Z

I'm very much looking forward to participating in this discussion of Colombia's peace efforts at @KeoughGlobalND's Washington office, this Wednesday morning.

Join us in person! You can register here: https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLScDtsf-BiZ6snxMDvInZJvCAVHhy3PYyih88owbdSgrEMLWaA/viewform

The Week in U.S. Security Policy in Latin America Here's an ...

2026-09-28T01:19:01Z

The Week in U.S. Security Policy in Latin America

Here's an experiment: an LLM pulls facts and links from my human-curated database, giving me a rough first draft of a weekly update, which I then edit heavily. The whole thing took an hour and a half.

https://adamisacson.com/the-week-in-u-s-security-policy-in-latin-america-2/

On January 22 and 24, mysterious attacks killed 17 people at ...

2026-09-27T21:15:08Z

On January 22 and 24, mysterious attacks killed 17 people at cocaine labs in Colombia, near the Ecuador border.

Two days earlier, a mysterious attack had killed 8 people aboard the Fiorella, an Ecuadorian fishing boat.

Sibylla Brodzinsky reporting at El CLIP: https://www.elclip.org/la-muerte-llego-del-cielo-y-nadie-la-reclama/

My latest declaration in the Ruidosa Church case against the ...

2026-09-27T20:07:01Z

My latest declaration in the *Ruidosa Church* case against the Big Bend border wall has 31 pages of charts and tables—one for each year since 1996—showing how rare illegal border crossings have been in an environmentally fragile area where the Trump admin wants to build barriers.

https://storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.uscourts.txwd.1172902145/gov.uscourts.txwd.1172902145.55.3.pdf

"The US has long provided Ecuador and other Latin American ...

2026-09-26T21:49:29Z

"The US has long provided Ecuador and other Latin American governments with intelligence, equipment and training… But until now, U.S. military personnel have mostly played a peripheral role in local operations, rather than participating directly in drug raids."

https://www.wsj.com/world/americas/u-s-troops-are-now-fighting-the-drug-war-on-the-ground-in-ecuador-8d0f439c

Colombia's defense minister told the country's Congress ...

2026-09-26T20:18:07Z

Colombia's defense minister told the country's Congress there's been no “decision by which the national government has authorized joint combat military operations by U.S. military forces on Colombian territory."

The agreement with the US "is limited to expressing intentions of cooperation… and does not constitute authorization for the entry, transit, deployment, or presence of foreign troops, nor for the conduct of combat military operations on national territory.”

https://www.elespectador.com/politica/asi-responde-el-gobierno-de-la-espriella-sobre-por-acuerdos-firmados-para-entrar-al-escudo-de-las-americas/

You know how DHS is spending over $7 billion on a border wall in ...

2026-09-25T19:15:06Z

You know how DHS is spending over $7 billion on a border wall in the Big Bend region, calling it an area of "high illegal entry?"

Well, Border Patrol now arrests more migrants in *upstate New York* (blue) than it does in its Big Bend Sector (green).

Neither Big Bend nor Lake Ontario needs a wall.

RE: https://elefanti.co/@adam/117305217857709120 Video of this ...

2026-09-25T18:38:36Z

RE: https://elefanti.co/@adam/117305217857709120

Video of this event is now available—note that it's in Spanglish / inglañol, I need to add subtitles.

It was a great and necessary discussion. Many thanks to the speakers and everyone who attended or watched it live.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8lhJQZ_QbgQ

quoting
note18n2…9c26

Are you in New York tomorrow afternoon? Join us for a high-level discussion on how jurisdictions across the Americas are protecting people from violent crime *without* eroding human rights or democracy.

There’s online access too. RSVP info here: https://www.wola.org/events/retaking-the-security-agenda-in-latin-america/

Here's a sourced timeline about the U.S. military presence at ...

2026-09-25T01:27:45Z

Here's a sourced timeline about the U.S. military presence at the Taura airbase near Guayaquil, Ecuador: https://adamisacson.com/the-u-s-presence-at-a-base-in-ecuador/

This says "50 members of US Southern Command" took part ...

2026-09-24T19:06:42Z

This says "50 members of US Southern Command" took part in this morning's operation against organized crime targets in Ecuador.

What was the probability that well-armed US personnel—perhaps in self-defense—could've shot at Ecuadorians on Ecuador's soil?

https://www.elcomercio.com/actualidad/seguridad/que-es-cartel-jalisco-nueva-generacion-como-llego-operar-ecuador/?source=Internal&ref=Latest%20News%20Widget%20-%20Front

An overnight operation in 3 provinces of #Ecuador "in ...

2026-09-24T13:20:23Z

An overnight operation in 3 provinces of #Ecuador "in coordination with US troops and the DEA."

This says "A US prosecutor and a local prosecutor participated in the raids, while military personnel from the Southern Command provided information and technology": https://www.eluniverso.com/noticias/seguridad/tropas-estadounidenses-y-policia-nacional-ejecutan-allanamientos-en-samborondon-y-desarticulan-presunta-red-vinculada-al-cjng-nota/

“Why is the Venezuelan government… going to be subsidizing ...

2026-09-23T16:06:08Z

“Why is the Venezuelan government… going to be subsidizing the richest country in the world?”

In a new WOLA podcast episode, @fmonaldi walks us through the Venezuela oil deal, a "particularly bizarre and confusing" and "opaque" arrangement.

https://www.wola.org/multimedia/the-venezuela-oil-deal-opacity-and-a-transition-in-doubt/

Rights-respecting security alternatives work better and last ...

2026-09-22T13:46:33Z

In reply to nevent1q…6aw7
_________________________

Rights-respecting security alternatives work better and last longer. Here's the landing page and audio version: https://www.wola.org/multimedia/security-reimagined-police-reform-isnt-decreed-its-managed/

We're launching a podcast series on how jurisdictions across ...

2026-09-22T13:46:25Z

We're launching a podcast series on how jurisdictions across Latin America are protecting people from violence *without* eroding democracy or human rights.

Here's a great conversation with Ernesto López Portillo from Mexico's IBERO University, about experiences with police reform. More to come.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6F0scVpU3W4

Of the lethal boat strikes, a UN Special Rapporteur says, in a ...

2026-09-21T12:13:20Z

Of the lethal boat strikes, a UN Special Rapporteur says, in a very clearly written report:

"The United States military attacks are…contrary to international law, violate the human right to life, and plausibly constitute crimes against humanity."

https://www.ohchr.org/sites/default/files/documents/issues/terrorism/sr-ct-briefing-note-targeting-narco-terrori.pdf

Are you in New York tomorrow afternoon? Join us for a high-level ...

2026-09-20T20:19:35Z

Are you in New York tomorrow afternoon? Join us for a high-level discussion on how jurisdictions across the Americas are protecting people from violent crime *without* eroding human rights or democracy.

There’s online access too. RSVP info here: https://www.wola.org/events/retaking-the-security-agenda-in-latin-america/

Nostr event nevent1qqsywxp6r7c3pcwpphnvduj0jn38pzk2zyeljj98s8ajlwjqydpat4gzyr30nj3h0npu3atgnwj5c4tage4hd569swysqls8s2zr9hpsjggf5vueruj

2026-09-20T02:27:04Z

In reply to nevent1q…y2k8
_________________________

New boat strike tonight. 4 more killed in the Caribbean. The ...

2026-09-20T02:26:28Z

New boat strike tonight. 4 more killed in the Caribbean.

The utter degradation of the United States of America continues.

"At least six members of the group of 222 political prisoners ...

2026-09-18T16:38:12Z

"At least six members of the group of 222 political prisoners expelled from Nicaragua by the regime of Daniel Ortega and Rosario Murillo in February 2023 have been detained by ICE… Of the six detainees, five remain in custody."

https://despacho505.com/nacionales/68317-ice-detiene-opositores-nicaraguenses-222-desterrados-nicaragua-regimen/

RE: https://elefanti.co/@adam/117286507887016163 A 9/8 letter ...

2026-09-18T16:34:26Z

RE: https://elefanti.co/@adam/117286507887016163

A 9/8 letter from Ecuador's Air Force chief—who was forced out 2 days later—"noted that the US Air Force planned to conduct temporary support flights and that its personnel needed to adapt and use part of the infrastructure at [the Taura] base located in Guayas."

https://www.expreso.ec/ecuador/ee-uu-taura-abrupta-salida-comandante-fae-pidio-explicaciones-296030.html

quoting
note18fw…n43q

US Marines have been clearing land for an airfield in Ecuador.

https://www.dvidshub.net/image/9913279/lcf-24-clb-8-airfield-clearing

2 weeks ago, 1,000 riot-police shields were one of the first ...

2026-09-18T11:16:51Z

2 weeks ago, 1,000 riot-police shields were one of the first deliveries of security assistance to Bolivia in nearly 20 years.

Now, Pennsylvania State Police are training Bolivian counterparts in crowd control techniques.

Seems to be a pattern here.

If you're not in New York, you can view it online, just RSVP. ...

2026-09-17T17:57:29Z

In reply to nevent1q…nxnf
_________________________

If you're not in New York, you can view it online, just RSVP. But if you are, it'd be great to see you there.

I'm in New York on Monday with @cjimenezDC—come join us. ...

2026-09-17T17:57:22Z

I'm in New York on Monday with @cjimenezDC—come join us. We're co-hosting an event about security in the Americas, focused not on "what's wrong" but on "what works."

Featuring Colombia's human rights ombudsperson and the IADB's citizen security chief: https://www.wola.org/events/retaking-the-security-agenda-in-latin-america/

Data through August were released yesterday. After a year of ...

2026-09-17T16:57:00Z

Data through August were released yesterday. After a year of lethal boat strikes (230 dead) in seas south of the US, are authorities finding less cocaine reaching US borders?

No. Sorry.

- 12 months before strikes began: 70,387 lbs seized
- 12 months since: 69,703 lbs seized

A 1% drop.

This appears to be at Taura Air Base, in Guayas Province: ...

2026-09-17T13:01:35Z

In reply to nevent1q…swxe
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This appears to be at Taura Air Base, in Guayas Province: https://x.com/SA_Defensa/status/2100416490780422388

US Marines have been clearing land for an airfield in Ecuador. ...

2026-09-17T13:01:23Z

US Marines have been clearing land for an airfield in Ecuador.

https://www.dvidshub.net/image/9913279/lcf-24-clb-8-airfield-clearing

Border Patrol's apprehensions of migrants at the US-Mexico ...

2026-09-17T12:53:14Z

Border Patrol's apprehensions of migrants at the US-Mexico border declined 5% from July to August, a typical summer decline.

August was also typical of Trump admin-era trends:

- 64% from Mexico; 87% Mexico+Central America
- Rio Grande Valley (TX) was the busiest sector
- 88% single adults

https://bit.ly/cbp-encounters

One wonders what Colombian soldiers and police, who lost comrades ...

2026-09-17T01:19:23Z

One wonders what Colombian soldiers and police, who lost comrades in combat with drug-trafficking armed groups over the past year, think of the Trump admin "decertifying" Colombia while Venezuela—where security forces widely collude with those groups—is now fully "certified."

https://www.state.gov/releases/office-of-the-spokesman/2026/09/presidential-determination-on-major-drug-transit-or-major-illicit-drug-producing-countries-for-fiscal-year-2027/

In 1998, after 2 years of decertifications, the Clinton ...

2026-09-16T23:30:38Z

In reply to nevent1q…rjz5
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In 1998, after 2 years of decertifications, the Clinton administration certified the scandal-plagued Samper government for "national interest" reasons (to keep aid flowing). The rules have since changed slightly; now, it's a decertification without aid cuts or other sanctions. (2/2)

The White House keeps Colombia "decertified" for not ...

2026-09-16T23:30:15Z

The White House keeps Colombia "decertified" for not meeting anti-drug goals—but waives penalties—even though the new president is a gung-ho hard-line drug warrior. (1/2)

https://www.state.gov/releases/office-of-the-spokesman/2026/09/presidential-determination-on-major-drug-transit-or-major-illicit-drug-producing-countries-for-fiscal-year-2027/

The screenshot in the prior post comes from Congress's ...

2026-09-16T10:10:52Z

In reply to nevent1q…852p
_________________________

The screenshot in the prior post comes from Congress's explanatory statement for the 2026 foreign aid bill, on page H861 of https://www.congress.gov/119/crec/2026/01/14/172/10/CREC-2026-01-14.pdf

"The State Department on Tuesday notified Congress that it ...

2026-09-16T10:10:46Z

"The State Department on Tuesday notified Congress that it will reprogram $52 million in foreign military financing [FMF] from Slovakia, North Macedonia, Tunisia and Iraq to Panama, Peru, Ecuador and Colombia."

That would roughly double FMF to those four countries.

https://apnews.com/article/foreign-military-financing-trump-rubio-c92157ab38b809a9faef9fa19be50cf7

The photo in this tweet is from #Ecuador, interestingly: ...

2026-09-15T22:37:50Z

The photo in this tweet is from #Ecuador, interestingly: https://www.dvidshub.net/image/9913430/lcf-24-clb-8-security-reinforcement

As this post on my blog lays out, "The reasoning behind this ...

2026-09-15T19:06:55Z

In reply to nevent1q…ny59
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As this post on my blog lays out, "The reasoning behind this event is important, though it takes a few sentences to explain." See https://adamisacson.com/monday-the-21st-join-me-at-retaking-the-security-agenda-in-latin-america-in-new-york/

In this work, we have to denounce and complain a lot. But we also ...

2026-09-15T19:06:31Z

In this work, we have to denounce and complain a lot. But we also have to propose and show a better way—especially on security, where alternatives to "mano dura" need more attention.

We're doing that at an event in New York on Monday. Please join us: https://www.wola.org/events/retaking-the-security-agenda-in-latin-america/

"Galeano had been driving for Uber to supplement the income ...

2026-09-15T14:46:50Z

In reply to nevent1q…s6mr
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"Galeano had been driving for Uber to supplement the income from his journalism work in the United States. His wife explained that they both hold second jobs on top of producing Café con Voz, the program he has directed from exile."

Great job as always, guys.

What an absolutely remarkable thing for ICE to do, one day before ...

2026-09-15T14:46:43Z

What an absolutely remarkable thing for ICE to do, one day before House Republicans hold a hearing on the brutality of the Ortega-Murillo regime in #Nicaragua.

https://www.expedientepublico.org/ice-detains-luis-galeano-nicaraguan-journalist-exiled-by-the-ortega-murillo-regime/

With Mona Charen @thebulwark.com about the boat strikes, covering ...

2026-09-14T15:24:05Z

With Mona Charen @thebulwark.com about the boat strikes, covering "the killing of survivors in a second strike, Pete Hegseth’s purge of military lawyers, the evidence that the campaign hasn’t reduced the cocaine supply, and why U.S. allies are increasingly wary of sharing intelligence."

https://www.thebulwark.com/p/the-us-is-engaged-in-extra-judicial?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=subs

A judge in Colombia has temporarily suspended any fumigation with ...

2026-09-12T19:17:07Z

In reply to nevent1q…r9z8
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A judge in Colombia has temporarily suspended any fumigation with glufosinate-ammonium: https://www.elespectador.com/judicial/juzgado-ordena-a-gobierno-de-la-espriella-frenar-aspersion-aerea-en-putumayo/

Good info about the chemical that Colombia's US-backed ...

2026-09-12T19:17:01Z

Good info about the chemical that Colombia's US-backed government wants to spray over areas with coca crops:

"The World Health Organization designates glufosinate-ammonium as a Class II, or moderately hazardous, pesticide, a stronger classification than glyphosate"

https://www.nytimes.com/2026/09/11/world/americas/colombia-aerial-spraying-coca-crops.html

Besides, aerial fumigation didn't work. As WOLA demonstrated ...

2026-09-11T13:21:56Z

In reply to nevent1q…c29j
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Besides, aerial fumigation didn't work. As WOLA demonstrated back in 2015, coca kept increasing in the mid-2000s even as fumigation increased. Manual eradication was more effective (though also flawed when not accompanied by state presence and services).

https://www.wola.org/analysis/even-if-glyphosate-were-safe-fumigation-in-colombia-would-be-a-bad-policy-heres-why/

Colombia’s police are reviving aerial fumigation of coca crops ...

2026-09-11T13:21:30Z

Colombia’s police are reviving aerial fumigation of coca crops with herbicides, with a test project using 2 planes in Putumayo department (where Plan Colombia ops began in 2000).

Colombia suspended this practice in 2015, citing public health concerns.

https://www.policia.gov.co/noticia/comunicado-oficial-1

Join us in New York (or online, but let's fill the room!) for ...

2026-09-10T17:25:25Z

Join us in New York (or online, but let's fill the room!) for a discussion on Monday 21 with Colombia's Human Rights Ombudsperson and the lead security official at the IADB.

"Iron fist" security policies aren't the only way to make people safe. We need to talk more about what brings quick results.

https://www.wola.org/events/retaking-the-security-agenda-in-latin-america/

"The latest poll by Meganálisis shows how the popularity of ...

2026-09-10T12:44:33Z

"The latest poll by Meganálisis shows how the popularity of US President Donald Trump has fallen among Venezuelans. Following the removal of Nicolás Maduro and Cilia Flores on Jan 3, that figure stood at 92.2%, but eight months later it dropped to 9.7%."

https://runrun.es/inicio/619573/popularidad-de-trump-en-venezuela-se-ubica-en-97

Why not say, "we'll dismantle their command and finances, ...

2026-09-10T12:39:04Z

In reply to nevent1q…8jcl
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Why not say, "we'll dismantle their command and finances, help Ecuador protect its citizens from them, and—especially—investigate and punish all corrupt officials who collude with them?"

It sounds less tough than "we'll treat them like terrorists," but it's actually tougher.

I mean, why leave off "Los Freddy Kruegers?" They sound ...

2026-09-10T12:24:49Z

In reply to nevent1q…fc5w
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I mean, why leave off "Los Freddy Kruegers?" They sound scary.

With 25 "terrorist" groups now listed in Latin America, but new gangs forming/splintering all the time, what's the strategic purpose? Other than "projecting toughness vibes?"

The graphic: https://www.primicias.ec/seguridad/ecuador-numero-miembros-grupos-criminales-perdidas-anuales-millones-pib-aportes-ley-antimafias-132177/

The Trump admin has put 4 Ecuadorian criminal groups/gangs on the ...

2026-09-10T12:24:35Z

The Trump admin has put 4 Ecuadorian criminal groups/gangs on the US terrorist list. It's not clear what the strategic value is.

Here's a graphic the Ecuadorian outlet Primicias made, using ACLED data, showing 48 criminal groups. Lots of room for growth, right?

3 of the last 4 boat strikes have been in the Caribbean. “We ...

2026-09-10T01:59:15Z

3 of the last 4 boat strikes have been in the Caribbean.

“We haven’t had a strike in the Caribbean Basin in almost 5 weeks. Do you know why? It’s not because we stopped looking. It’s because no one wants to get on a boat anymore and do that. So it’s been effective at cutting that down.”

—Marco Rubio, *last December*.

Nostr event nevent1qqszfr7sdyu83vgwcyftrtdr8fau4vr0z0qful732k5kv0frwjae3rszyr30nj3h0npu3atgnwj5c4tage4hd569swysqls8s2zr9hpsjggf5v3vl7v

2026-09-10T01:38:32Z

In reply to nevent1q…pgz6
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The boat strikes death toll hits 230. This is the first strike ...

2026-09-10T01:38:11Z

The boat strikes death toll hits 230.

This is the first strike announcement not attributed to a *person* who ordered it, like Gen. Donovan. Don't know what that means.

These have been happening for over a year. Still no deterrence.

This is neither "peace" nor "strength." It's gruesome.

Like entomologists discovering new moths, the Trump ...

2026-09-09T23:59:58Z

Like entomologists discovering new moths, the Trump administration keeps finding Latin American criminal groups to classify as “terrorist.”

Even as those groups thrive on relationships with corrupt officials in the governments the admin aligns with.

https://www.nytimes.com/2026/09/09/world/americas/ecuador-los-tiguerones-terrorist.html

So, not much tough talk here. For now, with Trump pushing for ...

2026-09-09T21:37:12Z

In reply to nevent1q…uttm
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So, not much tough talk here. For now, with Trump pushing for Venezuela's oil and the ELN still quiet inside Venezuela, US-supported military operations are more likely near Colombia's border with Ecuador than near its border with Venezuela.

Note Rubio's use of passive voice when asked about ...

2026-09-09T21:36:53Z

Note Rubio's use of passive voice when asked about confronting Colombia's ELN inside Venezuela.

The ELN often attacks oil infrastructure. Kicking this hornet's nest inside Venezuela could complicate Trump's oil deal and create new problems for Delcy's regime.

https://www.state.gov/releases/office-of-the-spokesperson/2026/09/secretary-of-state-marco-rubio-remarks-to-press-14/

That's fine: a hasty, all-military, rights-violating ...

2026-09-09T14:36:46Z

In reply to nevent1q…6wtn
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That's fine: a hasty, all-military, rights-violating offensive can do huge harm, and there are many past mistakes to avoid repeating.

This, from de la Espriella, was the most detail offered about what Colombia wants; Rubio didn't specifically endorse it.

https://www.state.gov/releases/office-of-the-spokesperson/2026/09/strategic-civil-nuclear-cooperation-and-critical-minerals-framework-memorandums-of-understanding-signing-ceremony/

Anyone else surprised by the lack of specificity about US ...

2026-09-09T14:36:15Z

Anyone else surprised by the lack of specificity about US security aid to #Colombia in yesterday's Rubio appearances?

I thought they'd be recklessly speed-running a big military offensive, but yesterday's message was more like "we need more details."

https://www.state.gov/releases/office-of-the-spokesperson/2026/09/secretary-of-state-marco-rubio-remarks-to-press-14/

Provinces of Ecuador—all near the Colombia border—where US ...

2026-09-09T01:42:11Z

Provinces of Ecuador—all near the Colombia border—where US military personnel have deployed to support land combat operations against armed groups:

- Sucumbíos, first noted March 2026
- Esmeraldas, first noted July 2026
- Orellana, first noted this week: https://www.infobae.com/america/america-latina/2026/09/08/estados-unidos-llevo-un-osprey-a-la-amazonia-ecuatoriana-para-apoyar-la-ofensiva-contra-los-comandos-de-la-frontera/

Some of the first US aid to Bolivia in nearly 20 years is… a ...

2026-09-08T19:38:20Z

Some of the first US aid to Bolivia in nearly 20 years is… a rush planeload of riot-control shields and MREs 🤔.

And of course, even if these new operations are an ...

2026-09-08T19:09:24Z

In reply to nevent1q…83mt
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And of course, even if these new operations are an "improvement," they don't wash out the indelible stain of the boat strikes. US personnel up and down the chain of command are accomplices to premeditated murder. The standards of civilized nations still require full accountability.

Will this stop cocaine trafficking? Perhaps in some eastern ...

2026-09-08T18:54:38Z

In reply to nevent1q…e8ht
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Will this stop cocaine trafficking? Perhaps in some eastern Pacific routes. But no, because profits are high and there are many other ways to transship a substance whose production for an entire year could fit into 1% of a cargo container ship.

From WOLA: https://www.wola.org/analysis/killing-spree-extrajudicial-executions-in-the-u-s-boat-strikes-campaign/

Still, the fact that an Ecuadorian court has released some of ...

2026-09-08T18:54:10Z

In reply to nevent1q…vuz7
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Still, the fact that an Ecuadorian court has released some of those arrested, pending trial, suggests that there's some semblance of due process. No more “we can just kill them because we say they’re terrorist affiliates.”

https://www.primicias.ec/seguridad/manta-liberados-tripulantes-embarcaciones-hundidas-estados-unidos-choneros-131940/

That’s a big “if”: we’ll need more information to confirm ...

2026-09-08T18:53:58Z

In reply to nevent1q…8nx3
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That’s a big “if”: we’ll need more information to confirm legality, because sadly, we can't take the Defense Department’s version of events at face value. DOD has blown too much credibility lately—in the Western Hemisphere and elsewhere.