Nostr notes by LogicallyMinded

Autocrats have always work to capture and undermine the ...

2026-07-01T08:17:21Z

In reply to nevent1q…3ghe
_________________________

Autocrats have always work to capture and undermine the democratic mechanisms that in principle should allow the expression of the people to take ground within the society. Even at the point where these mechanisms are broken they will keep shouting the virtue of democracy to create the illusion that people have some control but despite these facts, democratic governance remains the most promising governance model to take power out of the hands of autocrats. However, it’s a complicated model to implement well so it works as intended and remains resistant to cooptation over the long run. Direct democracy models are certainly worth experimenting with.

All of this because Andy went to the island.

2026-06-23T06:29:21Z

In reply to nevent1q…jprz
_________________________

All of this because Andy went to the island.

#Bitcoin price update: It’s been 7 months since my last #BTC ...

2026-06-22T08:28:44Z

#Bitcoin price update:

It’s been 7 months since my last #BTC price update and as anticipated, the high probability bear scenario took place although, I wasn’t expecting the drop to be as sharp and deep. At this point there is no question that we are in a bear market and the question is what’s likely to take place next?

In my opinion all the models that have been used to track past cycles are going to be useless. Bitcoin price has entered a change of regime and it’s unlikely that we’ll ever see the typical 4 years cycle (3 years of bull, 1 year of bear) moving forward. The rainbow 🌈 chart has topped and what comes next may look more like a big upward expanding fan with a price oscillating between $40k and $300K for the next 16 years.

The hard truth is that for most people, Bitcoin has failed as a store-of-value. An investor who bought and held BTC since April 2021 has realized, more than 5 years later, exactly 0% return. For a passive investor only interested in making a financial return, T-bonds would have been a better place to park his money.

Of course this is cherry-picking the investment timeframe and many will argue that holding Bitcoin over a longer time horizon will systematically turn out to be a superior investment but if Bitcoin really has entered a new regime, I’m doubtful that this assumption will hold.

I think Bitcoin will remain an attractive asset to get in and out but if BTC starts to oscillate in a range for the next decade, holding without taking profit will be a risky approach.

In the short term, I think that Bitcoin is likely to have bottomed. We may get a final push down to the $55K zone but my highest probability scenario (70%) is that BTC starts ripping to the upside between now and November to reach the $110k area. If this takes place, it won’t be the moment to be too excited as lower lows are still likely to be seen.

My expectation for a multi-year sideway price action hasn’t changed. The next significant breakout is unlikely to take place before 2030. Of course the expanding fan pattern shown on the chart is highly speculative as anything can happen but geometric configurations are already here to welcome this pattern, for Bitcoin to reach $1M before 2030, BTC will have to demonstrate extreme strength.

#Tradestr

quoting
nevent1q…w58n
Quick #Bitcoin price update:

#BTC broke the $90,672 level which was the last line in the sand for the bull scenario to remain probable. With this level broken and even if we bounce from here, I give the bull path under 10% chance of playing out. The bear path likelihood is now at 80%. There probably won’t be much to update on the high time frame moving forward as I don’t see a strong alternative to a multi years sideway consolidation for now (unless we reach the grayed out box). If I keep on doing those updates, it will probably be to zoom in on the lower time frame.

#Trading #Tradestr

note1rsg…kl76

Another one: Trump deploys the vax, Biden forces it on people.

2026-06-06T10:00:45Z

In reply to nevent1q…9uq9
_________________________

Another one:

Trump deploys the vax, Biden forces it on people.

Why not as long as the guarantees are solid. I’m not totally ...

2026-06-06T09:44:15Z

In reply to nevent1q…724u
_________________________

Why not as long as the guarantees are solid. I’m not totally clear on how Nostr could replace the properties of a decentralized ledger but it certainly could play a role for uncensorable communications. Anyway, the direct democracy stack isn’t just one tech but the combination of many.

I’m not sure that most people tolerate those anymore and I bet ...

2026-06-06T09:38:06Z

In reply to nevent1q…e5ly
_________________________

I’m not sure that most people tolerate those anymore and I bet you don’t know either. And the reason we don’t really know is because we don’t have the tools to measure this sentiment. At best, we have to rely on an organization doing a survey on the subject but can this organization be trusted? How can you know if this organization is bias or even worse corrupted? Most of the time you just can’t or at least not easily. Hence the necessity to deploy tools that will allow us to get an uncompromised sense of what people think or want.

The concept of democracy if often highly critized on Nostr but I ...

2026-06-06T09:32:11Z

The concept of democracy if often highly critized on Nostr but I think that many confound corrupted so-called democracies for what a democracy is supposed to be.

I think it’s fair to say that most so-called democracy aren’t actually democracies and those that may have been at the beginning likely got corrupted over time. Even the concept of representative democracy goes against the nature of democratic principles. However, representative democracies were a necessity at a time where transportation and communication tech were slow or non existant.

This is not the case anymore. True direct democracies are now achievable through a combination of various tech. I think it is the only governance model that will have a chance to compete against raising technocracies.

I also totally understand the anarchist view which is to not want to be ruled by anyone whether it is one person or a majority of people. I tend to agree with this ideal but in practice a model of governance get established whether we like it or not and often times they are hard to ignore especially tween they lean towards authoritarianism. I still believe that a true direct democracy is likely be the less worst governance model but I’m curious of the arguments for anyone thinking otherwise.

This is an overgeneralization. Blockchains are a just a neutral ...

2026-06-06T09:04:08Z

In reply to nevent1q…l9rg
_________________________

This is an overgeneralization. Blockchains are a just a neutral tech, although many people use blockchains to run their scam.

Democracies get captured because we never had the tools to implement direct democracies. This is changing. Anyway, the future will either lean towards technocracy or direct democracy, for me, the hopeful path is a no brainer.

Biden enables mass illegal immigration, Trump deploys the ...

2026-06-06T08:58:23Z

Biden enables mass illegal immigration, Trump deploys the surveillance stack.

Biden depletes the strategic petroleum reserve, Trump starts a war that results in oil shortage.

I see a pattern here, one camp starts the job by creating the conditions that will allow the other camp to complete the job.

These are not coincidences, they are meticulously planned ops that dilutes accountability across parties that seemingly act independently whereas in reality the same actors are coordinating them behind the scene.

It’s time to adopt direct democracy tech. Voting apps for which ...

2026-06-06T08:48:46Z

In reply to nevent1q…t4cl
_________________________

It’s time to adopt direct democracy tech. Voting apps for which the votes if verifiable and uncompromisable can now be built through a combination of blockchain, ZK tech and electronic passports. Some citizen initiatives have started to launch which the aim to bypass the corruption of the current systems.

It’s very possible that people are retarded but it’s also ...

2026-05-20T08:06:19Z

In reply to nevent1q…36rt
_________________________

It’s very possible that people are retarded but it’s also possible that the elections were fraudulent. I have no idea if there had been in fraud or even any claim of fraud but it seems as the ballots are electronically counted which always cast some doubt on the integrity of the results.

VAT in the Digital Age (#ViDA) is coming to the E.U.. This ...

2026-05-20T06:46:59Z

VAT in the Digital Age (#ViDA) is coming to the E.U..

This regulation will require all businesses to process their invoices through a centralized platform. This will allow the technocratic structure to surveil every single transactions made by businesses and consumers alike.

Transacting with #Monero outside of this platform will make you an outlaw.

#EUPolitics

https://herve.beraud.io/vida/einvoice/eu/vat/fraud/2026/01/15/vat-en.html

Ah okay, so it showed the content of the note because I didn’t ...

2026-05-14T06:35:18Z

In reply to nevent1q…8wke
_________________________

Ah okay, so it showed the content of the note because I didn’t fill in the description box and it defaulted to showing the first paragraph as the description which was the entire content in my case.

🔒 Premium Content Description --- 💰 Unlock for 0.00015 XMR ...

2026-05-14T06:30:18Z

🔒 Premium Content

Description

---
💰 Unlock for 0.00015 XMR
🔗 Unlock on nosmero.com

[Encrypted content - pay with Monero to unlock]

🔒 Premium Content Description --- 💰 Unlock for 0.00015 XMR ...

2026-05-14T06:30:13Z

🔒 Premium Content

Description

---
💰 Unlock for 0.00015 XMR
🔗 Unlock on nosmero.com

[Encrypted content - pay with Monero to unlock]

I just entered the npub in njump. Your screenshot shows the ...

2026-05-14T03:17:57Z

In reply to nevent1q…7akf
_________________________

I just entered the npub in njump. Your screenshot shows the content of the note which is « Test ».

Even having the author npub can make the locked content visible: ...

2026-05-13T18:44:11Z

In reply to nevent1q…dlde
_________________________

Even having the author npub can make the locked content visible:

https://njump.me/npub1s0fs9dwztm2rukm42vh6df4a5gwykclf75tgyeuc75t0cs2eh8rsu2rqf5

Or am I missing something?

How does the paywall works exactly? It seems that anyone with the ...

2026-05-13T17:50:22Z

In reply to nevent1q…dlde
_________________________

How does the paywall works exactly? It seems that anyone with the note ID can view the content. Is the note ID hidden to an user until he pays the paywall?

Nice! I just found out about #Nosmero. A much needed addition to ...

2026-05-13T08:57:35Z

In reply to nevent1q…6l3u
_________________________

Nice! I just found out about #Nosmero. A much needed addition to the #Nostr ecosystem with a lot of potential. The Paywall feature could be interesting for some content creators although I haven’t been able to make it worked (the content isn’t gated).

🔒 Premium Content Test --- 💰 Unlock for 0.00015 XMR 🔗 ...

2026-05-13T08:44:42Z

🔒 Premium Content

Test

---
💰 Unlock for 0.00015 XMR
🔗 Unlock on nosmero.com

[Encrypted content - pay with Monero to unlock]

🔒 Premium Content Just testing the Paywall feature on #Nosmero ...

2026-05-13T08:26:48Z

🔒 Premium Content

Just testing the Paywall feature on #Nosmero

---
💰 Unlock for 0.00015 XMR
🔗 Unlock on nosmero.com

[Encrypted content - pay with Monero to unlock]

Good to know. I was considering this as an option. I would have ...

2026-05-13T08:05:43Z

In reply to nevent1q…fcjq
_________________________

Good to know. I was considering this as an option. I would have to rethink about it.

Web. I’m not sure for the onion address.

2026-05-13T07:56:22Z

In reply to nevent1q…64gz
_________________________

Web. I’m not sure for the onion address.

Testing #Nosmero, a #Nostr client that implemented #XMR tips. So ...

2026-05-13T07:47:40Z

Testing #Nosmero, a #Nostr client that implemented #XMR tips. So far so good. Give it a try 🤙

#Monero

Testing #Nosmero, a #Nostr client that implemented #XMR tips. So ...

2026-05-13T07:47:34Z

Testing #Nosmero, a #Nostr client that implemented #XMR tips. So far so good. Give it a try 🤙

#Monero

The main barrier for the acceptance of fiat alternatives is your ...

2026-05-12T06:31:56Z

The main barrier for the acceptance of fiat alternatives is your neighbor not accepting the alternative. Talking to your neighbor can go a long way to fix the acceptance problem.

X-Files warned about the #Hantavirus psyop. Supposedly used as a ...

2026-05-07T17:08:14Z

X-Files warned about the #Hantavirus psyop. Supposedly used as a cover story to hide a planned armageddon secretly negotiated between these men and… #aliens ?

#PredictiveProgramming

European nations that want to have a chance at remaining ...

2026-05-02T12:26:56Z

In reply to nevent1q…l3dv
_________________________

European nations that want to have a chance at remaining sovereign need to exit the E.U. Before it’s too late.

So apparently #Claude desktop silently installs a bridge on you ...

2026-05-02T04:40:31Z

So apparently #Claude desktop silently installs a bridge on you machine between all Chromium based browsers. So if you using something like Brave to not share your data with Google, you probably shouldn’t use Claude desktop.

#privacy

quoting
nevent1q…v0em
Some relevant info for #Claude desktop users.

And this after the experimental Covid-19 shots were mandated on ...

2026-04-26T21:23:32Z

In reply to nevent1q…j8sj
_________________________

And this after the experimental Covid-19 shots were mandated on US troops. Who is steering the US ship?

Unfortunately mass-adoption is unlikely to happen in this ...

2026-04-25T15:19:05Z

In reply to nevent1q…etyp
_________________________

Unfortunately mass-adoption is unlikely to happen in this timeframe. Once the surveillance grid will be in place the only alternative left to acquire #Monero will be great OpSec + decentralized P2P marketplace + anonymized crypto or other goods and services as a mean of exchange. The barrier to entry will be high and only motivated and capable people will able to acquire it. Enforcement of the surveillance grid will impact current holders as well. The utility of #XMR is greatly dependent on growing the user base (people using it to buy and sell things) which will be constrained by this grid. This is the crypto/Monero dilemma for its use as a medium of exchange. To get a critical mass of users interested in using Monero for payment we need fiat currencies to become restrictive enough to entice people in seeking alternatives, however alternatives are harder to adopt in an environment in which the usage for fiat currencies is restricted. Hence, the only way to break this loop is to tie the economic system to a decentralized currency.

I’m not sure I understand your point. Governance in #Bitcoin is ...

2026-04-17T15:25:29Z

In reply to nevent1q…ygya
_________________________

I’m not sure I understand your point. Governance in #Bitcoin is stuck because the mining power is too centralized and miners don’t really care about politics, they just want to make money for securing the network. Now imagine that governance would be decided by node runners and that to an eligible node runner you just need to prove that you are a unique human to prevent Sybil attacks. Would it be a bad way to govern the protocol?

Even better for decentralized coordination is PoHW ...

2026-04-17T07:05:15Z

In reply to nevent1q…vmkj
_________________________

Even better for decentralized coordination is PoHW (proof-of-human-work). 1 person, 1 vote. It doesn’t get more decentralized than that. #Idena

Interesting. How about this photo that circulated? #IranWar ...

2026-04-07T06:20:26Z

In reply to nevent1q…fmcx
_________________________

Interesting. How about this photo that circulated? #IranWar

quoting
nevent1q…yf4c
How about this photo that is supposedly of the second pilot captured by Iranians forces? Apparently, it’s neither an AI generated photo nor an old one.

#IranWar

How about this photo that is supposedly of the second pilot ...

2026-04-06T06:24:06Z

In reply to nevent1q…zg7w
_________________________

How about this photo that is supposedly of the second pilot captured by Iranians forces? Apparently, it’s neither an AI generated photo nor an old one.

#IranWar

@npub18m7…q955 @npub1xts…kk5s this problem is still going on. ...

2026-03-09T15:51:53Z

In reply to nevent1q…wd6m
_________________________

damus (npub18m7…q955) jb55 (npub1xts…kk5s) this problem is still going on. Any idea why I can’t post this message on my timeline and why it doesn’t appear in the the related tags? It seems that it is still showing in some users timeline though (as some reacted to it).

With #Trump going to war with #Iran some of his supporters come ...

2026-03-07T14:15:13Z

With #Trump going to war with #Iran some of his supporters come to realize that he is being owned. However, this is not a recent phenomena, Trump has been owned for decades and that’s why he was elected twice. They don’t care if he lose the mid-terms because the final objective of having him as President was to start this war. The mission is already accomplished.

People got fooled once again although there were telling signs that he was compromised such as his documented relation with Epstein and Maxwell, his participation in the #QAnon psyop and his acting role in the staging of his failed assassination attempt.

Today, the DOJ released more #EpsteinFiles accusing Trump in the rape of underage girls. Those are FBI reports so they can be dismissed to some extent, but if you understand that those are likely real testimonials, you can only imagine how much more leverage they have on him. He will do anything they ask him to prevent the release of the video footages tapped by Epstein.

Also my note isn’t showing in the related hashtags.

2026-03-07T05:07:12Z

In reply to nevent1q…lms2
_________________________

Also my note isn’t showing in the related hashtags.

That’s crazy, every time I try to copy/paste the text from the ...

2026-03-07T05:03:30Z

That’s crazy, every time I try to copy/paste the text from the note below (in a new note), it wouldn’t post on my timeline. Is damus (npub18m7…q955) filtering out the #EpsteinFiles or what? 🤣

#nostr #asknostr

quoting
nevent1q…2muq
With #Trump going to war with #Iran some of his supporters come to realize that he is being owned. However, this is not a recent phenomena, #Trump has been owned for decades and that’s why he was elected twice. They don’t care if he lose the mid-terms because the final objective of having him as President was to start this war. The mission is already accomplished.

People got fooled once again although there were telling signs that he was compromised such as his documented relation with Epstein and Maxwell, his participation in the #QAnon psyop and his acting role in the staging of his failed assassination attempt.

Today, the DOJ released more #EpsteinFiles accusing Trump in the rape of underage girls. Those are FBI reports so they can be dismissed to some extent, but if you understand that those are likely real testimonials, you can only imagine how much more leverage they have on him. He will do anything they ask him to prevent the release of the video footages tapped by Epstein.

All the duplicated notes, none of which is showing in my timeline ...

2026-03-07T04:56:15Z

In reply to nevent1q…f6rt
_________________________

All the duplicated notes, none of which is showing in my timeline (see screenshot). I could only see them because someone replied.

quoting
nevent1q…2muq

With #Trump going to war with #Iran some of his supporters come to realize that he is being owned. However, this is not a recent phenomena, #Trump has been owned for decades and that’s why he was elected twice. They don’t care if he lose the mid-terms because the final objective of having him as President was to start this war. The mission is already accomplished.

People got fooled once again although there were telling signs that he was compromised such as his documented relation with Epstein and Maxwell, his participation in the #QAnon psyop and his acting role in the staging of his failed assassination attempt.

Today, the DOJ released more #EpsteinFiles accusing Trump in the rape of underage girls. Those are FBI reports so they can be dismissed to some extent, but if you understand that those are likely real testimonials, you can only imagine how much more leverage they have on him. He will do anything they ask him to prevent the release of the video footages tapped by Epstein.

quoting
nevent1q…2x4u

With #Trump going to war with #Iran some of his supporters come to realize that he is being owned. However, this is not a recent phenomena, #Trump has been owned for decades and that’s why he was elected twice. They don’t care if he lose the mid-terms because the final objective of having him as President was to start this war. The mission is already accomplished.

People got fooled once again although there were telling signs that he was compromised such as his documented relation with Epstein and Maxwell, his participation in the #QAnon psyop and his acting role in the staging of his failed assassination attempt.

Today, the DOJ released more #EpsteinFiles accusing Trump in the rape of underage girls. Those are FBI reports so they can be dismissed to some extent, but if you understand that those are likely real testimonials, you can only imagine how much more leverage they have on him. He will do anything they ask him to prevent the release of the video footages tapped by Epstein.

quoting
nevent1q…agxl

With #Trump going to war with #Iran some of his supporters come to realize that he is being owned. However, this is not a recent phenomena, #Trump has been owned for decades and that’s why he was elected twice. They don’t care if he lose the mid-terms because the final objective of having him as President was to start this war. The mission is already accomplished.

People got fooled once again although there were telling signs that he was compromised such as his documented relation with Epstein and Maxwell, his participation in the #QAnon psyop and his acting role in the staging of his failed assassination attempt.

Today, the DOJ released more #EpsteinFiles accusing Trump in the rape of underage girls. Those are FBI reports so they can be dismissed to some extent, but if you understand that those are likely real testimonials, you can only imagine how much more leverage they have on him. He will do anything they ask him to prevent the release of the video footages tapped by Epstein.

nostr:nevent1qqsdyc9wl37um9a5pjjfzve2hzdjavh84fxprk8h9083smsmmq3356spz4mhxue69uhhwmm59ehx7um5wgh8qctjw3usz9nhwden5te0wdjkzunrdqhxummn9e6x7erp0yqs7amnwvaz7tmwdaehgu3wd4hk6qgcwaehxw309aex2mrp0yh8xmn0wf6zuum0vd5kzmqzyzpaxq44cf0dg0jmw4fjlf4xhk3pcjmra863dqn8nr63dlzptxuuwqcyqqqqqqgjh049e

@npub18m7…q955 here is the note that I was able to see from my ...

2026-03-07T04:50:21Z

In reply to nevent1q…f6rt
_________________________

damus (npub18m7…q955) here is the note that I was able to see from my replies tab only when toggling off the « trusted network » option. That said I cannot see the note in my timeline…

quoting
nevent1q…2muq
With #Trump going to war with #Iran some of his supporters come to realize that he is being owned. However, this is not a recent phenomena, #Trump has been owned for decades and that’s why he was elected twice. They don’t care if he lose the mid-terms because the final objective of having him as President was to start this war. The mission is already accomplished.

People got fooled once again although there were telling signs that he was compromised such as his documented relation with Epstein and Maxwell, his participation in the #QAnon psyop and his acting role in the staging of his failed assassination attempt.

Today, the DOJ released more #EpsteinFiles accusing Trump in the rape of underage girls. Those are FBI reports so they can be dismissed to some extent, but if you understand that those are likely real testimonials, you can only imagine how much more leverage they have on him. He will do anything they ask him to prevent the release of the video footages tapped by Epstein.

I can see this note 👆😂

2026-03-07T04:45:57Z

In reply to nevent1q…f6rt
_________________________

I can see this note 👆😂

I don’t know what’s going on with #Nostr / @npub18m7…q955 ...

2026-03-07T04:45:21Z

I don’t know what’s going on with #Nostr / damus (npub18m7…q955) but I can’t see a note that I have posted multiple times while I can see my « GM » note (that I posted as a test). It seems that someone has replied to the note (that I can’t see) as I received a push notification for the reply but I just can’t see the note anywhere. It seems I’m having a lot of similar glitches lately (especially getting notified for people replies but. Ot being able to see the reply). I don’t even know how I can troubleshoot this. I may just have to try a new client. We are still a long way to be able to compete with centralized social media platforms…

#asknostr

With #Trump going to war with #Iran some of his supporters come ...

2026-03-07T04:36:05Z

With #Trump going to war with #Iran some of his supporters come to realize that he is being owned. However, this is not a recent phenomena, #Trump has been owned for decades and that’s why he was elected twice. They don’t care if he lose the mid-terms because the final objective of having him as President was to start this war. The mission is already accomplished.

People got fooled once again although there were telling signs that he was compromised such as his documented relation with Epstein and Maxwell, his participation in the #QAnon psyop and his acting role in the staging of his failed assassination attempt.

Today, the DOJ released more #EpsteinFiles accusing Trump in the rape of underage girls. Those are FBI reports so they can be dismissed to some extent, but if you understand that those are likely real testimonials, you can only imagine how much more leverage they have on him. He will do anything they ask him to prevent the release of the video footages tapped by Epstein.

With #Trump going to war with #Iran some of his supporters come ...

2026-03-07T04:34:04Z

With #Trump going to war with #Iran some of his supporters come ...

2026-03-07T04:28:19Z

With #Trump going to war with #Iran some of his supporters come ...

2026-03-07T04:11:40Z

With #Trump going to war with #Iran some of his supporters come ...

2026-03-07T04:11:08Z

So Dutch people are selling it all for gold?

2026-03-01T04:54:16Z

In reply to nevent1q…q3ws
_________________________

So Dutch people are selling it all for gold?

Whether it is the #EpsteinFiles or the #PodestaEmails , this is ...

2026-02-13T06:16:08Z

Whether it is the #EpsteinFiles or the #PodestaEmails , this is nothing new. Some had warned us years ago. Interesting how Andrew Breitbart tweet somehow got deleted from his Twitter account years after his death.

Some MAGA folks claim that #Trump is clean from the #EpsteinFiles ...

2026-02-13T05:16:40Z

Some MAGA folks claim that #Trump is clean from the #EpsteinFiles because a document shows that he called the police on Epstein (and supposedly he was one of the first to do so). This claim is made without considering the broader context. Trump called the police AFTER it was known that an investigation had been opened on #Epstein. This seems like a lame attempt from Trump to save his ass before the scandal blows up to Epstein’s circle. If Trump would have really cared about saving the children from Epstein’s evil, he would have contacted the police years before and not just when shit is about to hit the fan.

It’s been know for years that Trump is owned by the Rothschild and now that the connection between them and Epstein is confirmed, it becomes increasingly difficult to make the case that Trump is not implicated in wrongdoing along with Epstein.

https://www.bitchute.com/video/QAW9y6emuHWB

The Bitcoin Cash roadmap has certainly diverged over time but the ...

2026-02-10T01:13:40Z

In reply to nevent1q…ppkd
_________________________

The Bitcoin Cash roadmap has certainly diverged over time but the scaling vision is a bit in limbo especially since the ABC left BCH for eCash. Roger’s team hasn’t contributed much to the code anyway. I’m not aware that Gavin has ever been involved in BCH.

Sure but they gonna need some else to take his role. He publicly ...

2026-02-09T23:10:48Z

In reply to nevent1q…e2e8
_________________________

Sure but they gonna need some else to take his role. He publicly lost all credibility.

Sad but true: Satoshi invented #Bitcoin, #Epstein captured it.

2026-02-09T22:52:28Z

In reply to nevent1q…ghnp
_________________________

Sad but true: Satoshi invented #Bitcoin, #Epstein captured it.

The #epsteinfiles are rewritting the history of #Bitcoin and ...

2026-02-09T22:29:36Z

The #epsteinfiles are rewritting the history of #Bitcoin and demonstrate how a grass-root movement can remain co-opted for years by social engineers.

What is the path forward for Bitcoin to repair the damage of a lost decade?

https://brownstone.org/articles/the-hijacking-of-bitcoin/

I’m not surprised there was some blackmailing going on ...

2026-02-03T01:31:18Z

I’m not surprised there was some blackmailing going on targeting some key #Bitcoin figures.

Interesting how, they’ve had identified the Bitcoin threat early on.

https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%2010/EFTA01928856.pdf

#EpsteinFiles

Here is the most recent research on the topic: ...

2025-12-28T06:29:06Z

In reply to nevent1q…crt7
_________________________

Here is the most recent research on the topic: https://arxiv.org/abs/2504.12256

#Idena

I would like to know. Nostr.band has been broken for months and ...

2025-12-28T06:11:17Z

In reply to nevent1q…4zjy
_________________________

I would like to know. Nostr.band has been broken for months and doesn’t work anymore. #asknostr

Too many #Bitcoin (Saylor, ETF & more) are held by large ...

2025-12-24T06:51:56Z

In reply to nevent1q…j6ld
_________________________

Too many #Bitcoin (Saylor, ETF & more) are held by large custodians like Coinbase who are then lended to short sellers. This allows institutional players to keep BTC in a range while chopping retail investors. The only solution is for retail to take their money out of those custodians and to self-custody but of course it won’t happen.

I think we’re going to go for a multi-year consolidation range ...

2025-12-22T02:52:14Z

In reply to nevent1q…xf4z
_________________________

I think we’re going to go for a multi-year consolidation range

quoting note1rsg…kl76
#Bitcoin price forecast update:

The recent move down had #BTC broke down of the curved wedge for the first time since this bull market. For the bull case to have a chance of playing out (path 2), BTC needs to remain above $92k and to reclaim the wedge before the end of November. That said, I think there are good odds for this last move down to have found a temporary bottom. From here, I’m expecting a leg up that should bring Bitcoin back to the $120k area. This will probably be the last chance for the bulls to attempt a break out from the curved wedge. However, if the price falls back down and goes out of the wedge, the bull case will become very unlikely at this point.

Already, I’m downgrading the probability of the bull case to 20% (from 25%) and upgrading the bear case to 70% (from 65%).

Again, even if the bear case is at play, we have good chances of seeing a new ATH next year (in the $135k area ). However, this would be preceded by a drop to the $94k area. For those looking to sell some bitcoins near the top of this bull market, the next leg up may be a good time to consider doing so.

As long as the price stays out of the grayed out area, the bear case will maintain a high likelihood of playing out.

Emotions are high with Bitcoin trading in this range but keep in mind that this is only a 20% range over a period of 4 months. If the bear case plays out, I’m expecting a 40-50% range over the next four years. I think most long term hodlers are not prepared to navigate this type of price action…

#Trading #Tradestr

note1cyx…uhrm

Quick #Bitcoin price update: #BTC broke the $90,672 level which ...

2025-11-18T08:01:44Z

Quick #Bitcoin price update:

#BTC broke the $90,672 level which was the last line in the sand for the bull scenario to remain probable. With this level broken and even if we bounce from here, I give the bull path under 10% chance of playing out. The bear path likelihood is now at 80%. There probably won’t be much to update on the high time frame moving forward as I don’t see a strong alternative to a multi years sideway consolidation for now (unless we reach the grayed out box). If I keep on doing those updates, it will probably be to zoom in on the lower time frame.

#Trading #Tradestr

quoting
note1rsg…kl76
#Bitcoin price forecast update:

The recent move down had #BTC broke down of the curved wedge for the first time since this bull market. For the bull case to have a chance of playing out (path 2), BTC needs to remain above $92k and to reclaim the wedge before the end of November. That said, I think there are good odds for this last move down to have found a temporary bottom. From here, I’m expecting a leg up that should bring Bitcoin back to the $120k area. This will probably be the last chance for the bulls to attempt a break out from the curved wedge. However, if the price falls back down and goes out of the wedge, the bull case will become very unlikely at this point.

Already, I’m downgrading the probability of the bull case to 20% (from 25%) and upgrading the bear case to 70% (from 65%).

Again, even if the bear case is at play, we have good chances of seeing a new ATH next year (in the $135k area ). However, this would be preceded by a drop to the $94k area. For those looking to sell some bitcoins near the top of this bull market, the next leg up may be a good time to consider doing so.

As long as the price stays out of the grayed out area, the bear case will maintain a high likelihood of playing out.

Emotions are high with Bitcoin trading in this range but keep in mind that this is only a 20% range over a period of 4 months. If the bear case plays out, I’m expecting a 40-50% range over the next four years. I think most long term hodlers are not prepared to navigate this type of price action…

#Trading #Tradestr

note1cyx…uhrm

#Bitcoin price forecast update: The recent move down had #BTC ...

2025-11-06T05:23:01Z

#Bitcoin price forecast update:

The recent move down had #BTC broke down of the curved wedge for the first time since this bull market. For the bull case to have a chance of playing out (path 2), BTC needs to remain above $92k and to reclaim the wedge before the end of November. That said, I think there are good odds for this last move down to have found a temporary bottom. From here, I’m expecting a leg up that should bring Bitcoin back to the $120k area. This will probably be the last chance for the bulls to attempt a break out from the curved wedge. However, if the price falls back down and goes out of the wedge, the bull case will become very unlikely at this point.

Already, I’m downgrading the probability of the bull case to 20% (from 25%) and upgrading the bear case to 70% (from 65%).

Again, even if the bear case is at play, we have good chances of seeing a new ATH next year (in the $135k area ). However, this would be preceded by a drop to the $94k area. For those looking to sell some bitcoins near the top of this bull market, the next leg up may be a good time to consider doing so.

As long as the price stays out of the grayed out area, the bear case will maintain a high likelihood of playing out.

Emotions are high with Bitcoin trading in this range but keep in mind that this is only a 20% range over a period of 4 months. If the bear case plays out, I’m expecting a 40-50% range over the next four years. I think most long term hodlers are not prepared to navigate this type of price action…

#Trading #Tradestr

quoting
note1cyx…uhrm
#Bitcoin price forecast update:

Nothing has changed since my last update except that reaching $119,261 by the end of November would not have me to reduce the odds for the bear scenario (path 1) as I was previously anticipating. Based on the structure that has developed, there are good chances that this level will be reached before the end of November without impacting the bear case. In fact, there is a lot of room for #BTC to run higher without impacting the odds for the bear case. The structure that will develop between now and the end of the year is going to matter more than the price itself to gauge whether or not the 65% odds in favor of the bear case can be reduced. That said, I think it’s unlikely for BTC to move sustainably and significantly beyond the current ATH in 2025.

#Trading #Tradestr

note1r8h…xdqh

#Bitcoin price forecast update: Nothing has changed since my last ...

2025-10-27T06:42:08Z

#Bitcoin price forecast update:

Nothing has changed since my last update except that reaching $119,261 by the end of November would not have me to reduce the odds for the bear scenario (path 1) as I was previously anticipating. Based on the structure that has developed, there are good chances that this level will be reached before the end of November without impacting the bear case. In fact, there is a lot of room for #BTC to run higher without impacting the odds for the bear case. The structure that will develop between now and the end of the year is going to matter more than the price itself to gauge whether or not the 65% odds in favor of the bear case can be reduced. That said, I think it’s unlikely for BTC to move sustainably and significantly beyond the current ATH in 2025.

#Trading #Tradestr

quoting
note1r8h…xdqh
#Bitcoin price forecast update:

$BTC broke some key levels on this dump that were important for the bulls to defend. There is still a bull case to be made (Path 2) but the probability for it to play out is significantly reduced (25%). Dipping below $90,672 would reduce its probability to under 10% and this bull path would be fully invalidated at $75,017.

Path 1 is the most likely scenario with 65% chance of playing out. This path consists in a long sideway consolidation (probably past 2029) within a 80% or so range between $70K and $135K. Because of its corrective structure, this path could take a multitude of shapes between these two levels. in this scenario, it’s still possible for BTC to put on a new ATH. Even if we don’t put a new ATH it’s more likely than not that we’ll revisit the region of the last ATH. So far, there is no hard invalidation for this scenario but reaching $119,261 before the end of November will have me reduce its probability in favor of the bull case.

#Trading #Tradestr

note1hcw…mqss

#Bitcoin price forecast update: $BTC broke some key levels on ...

2025-10-11T02:10:33Z

#Bitcoin price forecast update:

$BTC broke some key levels on this dump that were important for the bulls to defend. There is still a bull case to be made (Path 2) but the probability for it to play out is significantly reduced (25%). Dipping below $90,672 would reduce its probability to under 10% and this bull path would be fully invalidated at $75,017.

Path 1 is the most likely scenario with 65% chance of playing out. This path consists in a long sideway consolidation (probably past 2029) within a 80% or so range between $70K and $135K. Because of its corrective structure, this path could take a multitude of shapes between these two levels. in this scenario, it’s still possible for BTC to put on a new ATH. Even if we don’t put a new ATH it’s more likely than not that we’ll revisit the region of the last ATH. So far, there is no hard invalidation for this scenario but reaching $119,261 before the end of November will have me reduce its probability in favor of the bull case.

#Trading #Tradestr

quoting
note1hcw…mqss
#Bitcoin price forecast update:

With #BTC putting on a new ATH, the bear path that could have opened the door for a full retracement of the current bull cycle becomes very unlikely. However, I wouldn’t discard a high probability (45%) for the top to be in for this bull cycle. If that’s the case, it is more likely that Bitcoin will see a multi years sideway consolidation ranging between $134k and $70K (see path 1). This scenario would become quite unlikely if $125,220 is breached before the price reaches $105,128 first.

If we get a extended bull cycle, I see two paths:

Path 2 that would see the price of Bitcoin grinding up in the already established channel until September 2026 to then consolidate sideways until 2030 or so.

Path 3 that would consist in a blow-off top running until the end of 2026.

Both paths would become less likely if the price can’t hold $105,138. I put a probability of playing out at 35% for path 2 and 15% for path 3.

#Trading #Tradestr

note1wgq…0uwy

#Bitcoin price forecast update: With #BTC putting on a new ATH, ...

2025-10-08T05:47:09Z

#Bitcoin price forecast update:

With #BTC putting on a new ATH, the bear path that could have opened the door for a full retracement of the current bull cycle becomes very unlikely. However, I wouldn’t discard a high probability (45%) for the top to be in for this bull cycle. If that’s the case, it is more likely that Bitcoin will see a multi years sideway consolidation ranging between $134k and $70K (see path 1). This scenario would become quite unlikely if $125,220 is breached before the price reaches $105,128 first.

If we get a extended bull cycle, I see two paths:

Path 2 that would see the price of Bitcoin grinding up in the already established channel until September 2026 to then consolidate sideways until 2030 or so.

Path 3 that would consist in a blow-off top running until the end of 2026.

Both paths would become less likely if the price can’t hold $105,138. I put a probability of playing out at 35% for path 2 and 15% for path 3.

#Trading #Tradestr

quoting
note1wgq…0uwy
#Bitcoin price forecast update:

The advance shown by the bulls over the past week doesn’t yet invalidate the path 1 (bear case) but makes it a lot less likely. Its probability of happening is now downgraded to 25% (from 45%). The path 2 (bull case) is upgraded to 50% (from 30%).

The thesis for an extended cycle appears a lot more probable. Although anything is possible, I don’t think that #BTC will see another parabolic advance within the next five years but rather a steady grind higher with pullbacks no greater than 25% or so. Unless advance in quantum computers shows readiness to wreak havoc Bitcoin, I wouldn’t expect any major bear market as we’ve seen in past cycles.

For the short term, I’m expecting more consolidation until December before the next major leg up (which isn’t exactly reflected in the chart below).

Invalidation for the bear case is still $125,409 while a soft invalidation for the bull case is still $105,128.

#Trading #Tradestr

note1x78…u0jv

#Bitcoin price forecast update: The advance shown by the bulls ...

2025-10-03T05:18:40Z

#Bitcoin price forecast update:

The advance shown by the bulls over the past week doesn’t yet invalidate the path 1 (bear case) but makes it a lot less likely. Its probability of happening is now downgraded to 25% (from 45%). The path 2 (bull case) is upgraded to 50% (from 30%).

The thesis for an extended cycle appears a lot more probable. Although anything is possible, I don’t think that #BTC will see another parabolic advance within the next five years but rather a steady grind higher with pullbacks no greater than 25% or so. Unless advance in quantum computers shows readiness to wreak havoc Bitcoin, I wouldn’t expect any major bear market as we’ve seen in past cycles.

For the short term, I’m expecting more consolidation until December before the next major leg up (which isn’t exactly reflected in the chart below).

Invalidation for the bear case is still $125,409 while a soft invalidation for the bull case is still $105,128.

#Trading #Tradestr

quoting
note1x78…u0jv
#Bitcoin price forecast update:

The rejection of #BTC below $118,000 and the failure to hold key levels on the downside, shifts the momentum back to the bear count (path 1).

The probability weighting for path 1 (bear scenario) is now 45% (up from 30%). Path 2 (bull scenario) now weights at 30% (down from 45%) probability of playing out.

#Trading #Tradestr

note1cct…djrs

#Bitcoin price forecast update: The rejection of #BTC below ...

2025-09-26T02:12:24Z

#Bitcoin price forecast update:

The rejection of #BTC below $118,000 and the failure to hold key levels on the downside, shifts the momentum back to the bear count (path 1).

The probability weighting for path 1 (bear scenario) is now 45% (up from 30%). Path 2 (bull scenario) now weights at 30% (down from 45%) probability of playing out.

#Trading #Tradestr

quoting
note1cct…djrs
#Bitcoin price forecast update:

I don’t have much changes to make to the two paths described below other than increasing the weighting for path 2 to 45% (from 35%) and decreasing the weighting for path 1 to 30% (from 45%). So far the bulls have successfully defended the $105,580 level and based on lower time frame price action the odds for this level to remain untouched has increased. The invalidation for the path 1 remains $125,759 although breaching $118,680 would significantly decrease the odds of seeing path 1 playing out. Path 2 will likely see a longer consolidation phase between $107,000 and $125,000 that shown on the latest chart screenshot.

#BTC #Trading #Tradestr

note15uw…8qrm

#Bitcoin price forecast update: I don’t have much changes to ...

2025-09-12T04:08:34Z

#Bitcoin price forecast update:

I don’t have much changes to make to the two paths described below other than increasing the weighting for path 2 to 45% (from 35%) and decreasing the weighting for path 1 to 30% (from 45%). So far the bulls have successfully defended the $105,580 level and based on lower time frame price action the odds for this level to remain untouched has increased. The invalidation for the path 1 remains $125,759 although breaching $118,680 would significantly decrease the odds of seeing path 1 playing out. Path 2 will likely see a longer consolidation phase between $107,000 and $125,000 that shown on the latest chart screenshot.

#BTC #Trading #Tradestr

quoting
note15uw…8qrm
#Bitcoin price forecast update:

Maybe more than ever in this cycle Bitcoin is at a crossroad with a strong probability that the cycle top is already in. However, this scenario has a clear invalidation at $125,759. Breaching this price may be the sign of an extended bull cycle that could continue beyond 2030. However, as long as #BTC trades below this price, being risk-off or hedging is probably not a bad move.

Path 1 (45% probability): 🐻 The top of the four year cycle is already in. This scenario will be off the table if $125,759 gets breached. If this scenario plays out, Bitcoin could take a multitude of paths (I drew one possible path for illustration purpose). My base case would be a long bear market extending beyond 2030 that would range between this market top and the $20k area. The bear market could also be shorter with a more shallow retracement ($70k being the minimum target) but I see the base case as more likely considering that we could be correcting the full 16 year bull market cycle.

Path 2 (35% probability): 🐂 BTC would keep consolidating at the top for a few more weeks then resume its uptrend. In this scenario, Bitcoin is likely to keep trading within the channel established during this bull cycle. Bitcoin would reach the $200k area around 2027 then range between this zone and $150k until 2030 or so. Although not totally invalidated, this scenario would become a lot less likely if BTC breaches $105,580 (in this case the cycle top scenario probability would jump to around 70%).

The remaining 20% of probabilities are assigned to other bullish scenarios which I see as less likely including a deeper retracement before resuming the uptrend or a parabolic ascent.

#Trading #Tradestr

note1r7z…ny2n

#Bitcoin price forecast update: Maybe more than ever in this ...

2025-08-24T08:48:05Z

#Bitcoin price forecast update:

Maybe more than ever in this cycle Bitcoin is at a crossroad with a strong probability that the cycle top is already in. However, this scenario has a clear invalidation at $125,759. Breaching this price may be the sign of an extended bull cycle that could continue beyond 2030. However, as long as #BTC trades below this price, being risk-off or hedging is probably not a bad move.

Path 1 (45% probability): 🐻 The top of the four year cycle is already in. This scenario will be off the table if $125,759 gets breached. If this scenario plays out, Bitcoin could take a multitude of paths (I drew one possible path for illustration purpose). My base case would be a long bear market extending beyond 2030 that would range between this market top and the $20k area. The bear market could also be shorter with a more shallow retracement ($70k being the minimum target) but I see the base case as more likely considering that we could be correcting the full 16 year bull market cycle.

Path 2 (35% probability): 🐂 BTC would keep consolidating at the top for a few more weeks then resume its uptrend. In this scenario, Bitcoin is likely to keep trading within the channel established during this bull cycle. Bitcoin would reach the $200k area around 2027 then range between this zone and $150k until 2030 or so. Although not totally invalidated, this scenario would become a lot less likely if BTC breaches $105,580 (in this case the cycle top scenario probability would jump to around 70%).

The remaining 20% of probabilities are assigned to other bullish scenarios which I see as less likely including a deeper retracement before resuming the uptrend or a parabolic ascent.

#Trading #Tradestr

quoting
note1r7z…ny2n
Quick #Bitcoin price forecast update:

There is a high probability (close to 50%) that the top for this Bitcoin cycle is in. If #BTC goes below $105k, then probability would rise to 75% or so. I’ll try to take the time to share more details this week.

#Trading #Tradestr

note1rtl…c3q6

Quick #Bitcoin price forecast update: There is a high probability ...

2025-08-18T04:53:10Z

Quick #Bitcoin price forecast update:

There is a high probability (close to 50%) that the top for this Bitcoin cycle is in. If #BTC goes below $105k, then probability would rise to 75% or so. I’ll try to take the time to share more details this week.

#Trading #Tradestr

quoting
note1rtl…c3q6
#Bitcoin price forecast update:

Below are the two paths for #BTC that I see as the most likely.

Path 1: The typical 4-year cycle. This path would send Bitcoin to around $135k in the next weeks/months and would be followed by about 200 days of sideway consolidation. A final leg up to around $150k in around May 2026 would mark the top for this bull cycle.

Path 2: The extended supercycle. This path would send Bitcoin upward to around $220k by the mid-year next year. This move would be follow by close to 400-500 days of sideway consolidation. A final leg up to around $250k in 2028 would mark the top for this bull cycle.

The key area to watch for is the resistance line (white line) drawn from the tops of the current cycle. Reaction at this inflection point is likely to determine which path Bitcoin will take. If Bitcoin fails to break above on the next leg up, then path 2 will be favored. If it convincingly breaks above then, the supercycle scenario will be at play. As always many alternative scenarios are possible including a deeper retracement or more consolidation in the current range before the next leg up. Those can take place and still keep the character of these two paths possible.

#Trading #Tradestr

note1647…543p

The #Qubic price dump is going to be as good as a #XMR buy ...

2025-08-12T19:19:36Z

The #Qubic price dump is going to be as good as a #XMR buy opportunity as the Binance delisting price dump was.

#Monero

#Bitcoin price forecast update: Below are the two paths for #BTC ...

2025-07-26T05:57:08Z

#Bitcoin price forecast update:

Below are the two paths for #BTC that I see as the most likely.

Path 1: The typical 4-year cycle. This path would send Bitcoin to around $135k in the next weeks/months and would be followed by about 200 days of sideway consolidation. A final leg up to around $150k in around May 2026 would mark the top for this bull cycle.

Path 2: The extended supercycle. This path would send Bitcoin upward to around $220k by the mid-year next year. This move would be follow by close to 400-500 days of sideway consolidation. A final leg up to around $250k in 2028 would mark the top for this bull cycle.

The key area to watch for is the resistance line (white line) drawn from the tops of the current cycle. Reaction at this inflection point is likely to determine which path Bitcoin will take. If Bitcoin fails to break above on the next leg up, then path 2 will be favored. If it convincingly breaks above then, the supercycle scenario will be at play. As always many alternative scenarios are possible including a deeper retracement or more consolidation in the current range before the next leg up. Those can take place and still keep the character of these two paths possible.

#Trading #Tradestr

quoting
note1647…543p
#Bitcoin price forecast update:

Although Bitcoin has seen a nice breakout to ATH, it needs to do a bit more work to fully invalidate the bearish path and prevent this breakout from turning into a nasty bull trap.

Path 1 🐻 : The bearish path remains possible as long as $121,100 isn’t crossed. The bulls couldn’t quite get there on the last impulse. Not crossing this level in the next month or so would make the bear path more likely. The path 1 could take a multitude of shapes but I drew what I think would be the most likely which is a slow sideway downtrend that could last up to the end of 2029 and reach sub $20K. The unusual length of this bearish path would be justified by a structure correcting 16 years of bull cycle down to the base of the fan formation (yellow lines).

Path 2 🐂 : The bullish path will require a demonstration of force from the bulls as there are still quite a lot of upward resistance above the current level particularly the upward trend line formed by the three tops of this bull market (white line) and the upward trend line from the fan that has formed over the last 16 years (yellow line). #BTC just tagged the latter and while it can reject from here and still cross it, I would like to see a shallow pullback to then come back with strength to breach it in a convincing fashion. Crossing the yellow, then the white trend lines would prove the strength of this bull market that could then certainly be qualified as the supercycle that would definitely put an end to the 4 years cycle model. In this scenario, I would expect a massive uptrend to around $270K from now to mid 2026, followed by a long period of consolidation until the end of 2027, then a final up leg that would end this five and a half year long bull cycle at around $290K. Crossing $110,970 would make this scenario significantly less likely but still possible with a deeper pullback. Crossing $89,300 would make this path very unlikely and it would be fully invalidated if $74,480 is breached.

I put both paths at an equal probability of 35% as the current invalidation levels remain untapped. Other alternative scenarios in between can play out although it’s unclear to me what those would look like. Probably, a lot of chops without a clear direction if I had to guess.

I’m expecting more clarity in which path becomes more likely in the next month or so.

#Trading #Tradestr

note1ah4…x2rn

#Bitcoin price forecast update: Although Bitcoin has seen a nice ...

2025-07-12T06:32:21Z

#Bitcoin price forecast update:

Although Bitcoin has seen a nice breakout to ATH, it needs to do a bit more work to fully invalidate the bearish path and prevent this breakout from turning into a nasty bull trap.

Path 1 🐻 : The bearish path remains possible as long as $121,100 isn’t crossed. The bulls couldn’t quite get there on the last impulse. Not crossing this level in the next month or so would make the bear path more likely. The path 1 could take a multitude of shapes but I drew what I think would be the most likely which is a slow sideway downtrend that could last up to the end of 2029 and reach sub $20K. The unusual length of this bearish path would be justified by a structure correcting 16 years of bull cycle down to the base of the fan formation (yellow lines).

Path 2 🐂 : The bullish path will require a demonstration of force from the bulls as there are still quite a lot of upward resistance above the current level particularly the upward trend line formed by the three tops of this bull market (white line) and the upward trend line from the fan that has formed over the last 16 years (yellow line). #BTC just tagged the latter and while it can reject from here and still cross it, I would like to see a shallow pullback to then come back with strength to breach it in a convincing fashion. Crossing the yellow, then the white trend lines would prove the strength of this bull market that could then certainly be qualified as the supercycle that would definitely put an end to the 4 years cycle model. In this scenario, I would expect a massive uptrend to around $270K from now to mid 2026, followed by a long period of consolidation until the end of 2027, then a final up leg that would end this five and a half year long bull cycle at around $290K. Crossing $110,970 would make this scenario significantly less likely but still possible with a deeper pullback. Crossing $89,300 would make this path very unlikely and it would be fully invalidated if $74,480 is breached.

I put both paths at an equal probability of 35% as the current invalidation levels remain untapped. Other alternative scenarios in between can play out although it’s unclear to me what those would look like. Probably, a lot of chops without a clear direction if I had to guess.

I’m expecting more clarity in which path becomes more likely in the next month or so.

#Trading #Tradestr

quoting
note1ah4…x2rn
This week will be pivotal for the the price of #Bitcoin. By the end of it, we are likely to get a better sense about which path will #BTC take for the next years ahead.

Supercycle bull 🐂 or end of 16 years cycle bear 🐻 ?

#Trading #Tradestr

note12ww…mcwd

This week will be pivotal for the the price of #Bitcoin. By the ...

2025-07-07T04:45:15Z

This week will be pivotal for the the price of #Bitcoin. By the end of it, we are likely to get a better sense about which path will #BTC take for the next years ahead.

Supercycle bull 🐂 or end of 16 years cycle bear 🐻 ?

#Trading #Tradestr

quoting
note12ww…mcwd
Here is an update on the #Bitcoin price forecast:

I usually don’t update these forecasts very often but I had overlooked a bearish option which I think has a high probability of playing out.

Path 1: 45% probability. This is the bear case in which #BTC would range between $70k and $120k until at least the end of 2027. The current high would hold for the time being and the price would start retracing to low 80’s/high 70’s. We would still see a final leg up that may take the current high marking the end of this bull market cycle. This path is the best fit for what would be expected of a typical 4-years cycle in terms of price and time.

Path 2: 35% probability. This is the bull “supercycle” case. We would see a retracement from the current high to the $94K area. Then we would continue upward towards higher highs. This bull cycle could end in early 2028 at a price around $230K which would constitute an atypical bull market.

#Trading #Tradestr

note1r2q…kkqc

Here is an update on the #Bitcoin price forecast: I usually ...

2025-05-29T23:49:48Z

Here is an update on the #Bitcoin price forecast:

I usually don’t update these forecasts very often but I had overlooked a bearish option which I think has a high probability of playing out.

Path 1: 45% probability. This is the bear case in which #BTC would range between $70k and $120k until at least the end of 2027. The current high would hold for the time being and the price would start retracing to low 80’s/high 70’s. We would still see a final leg up that may take the current high marking the end of this bull market cycle. This path is the best fit for what would be expected of a typical 4-years cycle in terms of price and time.

Path 2: 35% probability. This is the bull “supercycle” case. We would see a retracement from the current high to the $94K area. Then we would continue upward towards higher highs. This bull cycle could end in early 2028 at a price around $230K which would constitute an atypical bull market.

#Trading #Tradestr

quoting
note1r2q…kkqc
Here is an update on the #Bitcoin price forecast:

As it stands, I think we are more likely than not to see an atypical extended cycle in time that could top around early 2027 (which is the path 3 in the previous note).

Updated paths:

Path 1: 45% probability. #BTC breaks out without any substantial pull back from the current levels. The top could be reach at around 240K early in 2027.

Path 2: 25% probability. Pretty much the same as path 1 but with a retracement of the current move up (we shouldn’t revisit the last low though) before the break out.

Path 3: 20% probability. There is still a possibility that this market cycle has completed and that we take out the recent low with more downward chop to follow.

#Trading #Tradestr

note1nd0…l8mn

Here is an update on the #Bitcoin price forecast: As it stands, I ...

2025-05-21T23:31:23Z

Here is an update on the #Bitcoin price forecast:

As it stands, I think we are more likely than not to see an atypical extended cycle in time that could top around early 2027 (which is the path 3 in the previous note).

Updated paths:

Path 1: 45% probability. #BTC breaks out without any substantial pull back from the current levels. The top could be reach at around 240K early in 2027.

Path 2: 25% probability. Pretty much the same as path 1 but with a retracement of the current move up (we shouldn’t revisit the last low though) before the break out.

Path 3: 20% probability. There is still a possibility that this market cycle has completed and that we take out the recent low with more downward chop to follow.

#Trading #Tradestr

quoting
note1nd0…l8mn
Here is an update on #Bitcoin price. The previous path 2 was invalidated although a variant of this path has a low probability (5%) of playing out (not in the chart).

35% probability: Path 1 is now the most likely. I made some slight adjustments to it but the final timeline and price target remain the same with a top at around $135k by the end of this summer.

30% probability: New path 2 is the most bearish case with the top already and the start of a downtrend that could send us as low as $13k.

25% probability: Path 3 is now the most bullish with good odds of playing out but less likely than path 1 & 2. This one would follow a parabola. That would send us to around $240k by the end of 2026.

#BTC #Trading #Tradestr

note1ptd…fpsk

Here is an update on #Bitcoin price. The previous path 2 was ...

2025-04-30T06:06:24Z

Here is an update on #Bitcoin price. The previous path 2 was invalidated although a variant of this path has a low probability (5%) of playing out (not in the chart).

35% probability: Path 1 is now the most likely. I made some slight adjustments to it but the final timeline and price target remain the same with a top at around $135k by the end of this summer.

30% probability: New path 2 is the most bearish case with the top already and the start of a downtrend that could send us as low as $13k.

25% probability: Path 3 is now the most bullish with good odds of playing out but less likely than path 1 & 2. This one would follow a parabola. That would send us to around $240k by the end of 2026.

#BTC #Trading #Tradestr

quoting
note1ptd…fpsk
We are back to 25%/25% probability for each path with path 2 being close to be invalidated.

#Bitcoin #BTC #Trading #Tradestr

note1lr4…5260

We are back to 25%/25% probability for each path with path 2 ...

2025-04-12T23:47:58Z

We are back to 25%/25% probability for each path with path 2 being close to be invalidated.

#Bitcoin #BTC #Trading #Tradestr

quoting
note1lr4…5260
My two most likely outcomes for #BTC price this cycle:

- Either #Bitcoin grinds up from here and top at around $135K this summer, or
- Bitcoin dumps to $45K-$38K by end of April/early May, then it goes for an extended cycle that would put us at $160K-$220K by 2027-2029.

As always, there are many other possible scenarios.

#Trading #Tradestr

My two most likely outcomes for #BTC price this cycle: - Either ...

2025-04-09T00:20:23Z

My two most likely outcomes for #BTC price this cycle:

- Either #Bitcoin grinds up from here and top at around $135K this summer, or
- Bitcoin dumps to $45K-$38K by end of April/early May, then it goes for an extended cycle that would put us at $160K-$220K by 2027-2029.

As always, there are many other possible scenarios.

#Trading #Tradestr

The Darwin’s theory is as scientifically unproven as the ...

2024-09-23T23:39:59Z

The Darwin’s theory is as scientifically unproven as the #creationism theory hence 99% of people probably have an erroneous view of the mechanisms of #evolution.

#Darwin #Biology

https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/life-after-darwin-2012-07

Thanks for the tip but it seems that it still involves a ...

2024-09-06T05:18:51Z

In reply to nevent1q…6geg
_________________________

Thanks for the tip but it seems that it still involves a custodial element which I want to avoid especially if I was to start accumulating #zaps over a long period of time. I felt the pain when my Twitter account to which I had invested a lot of time was gone overnight with no option to recover it. That’s why I’m on #nostr so I don’t want to reproduce the same mistake when it comes to how I secure my funds on this platform. Unfortunately, running my own channel isn’t an option I’d consider so I guess no #lightning zaps for me…

#WalletOfSatoshi rugged pull some of their users (if not why ...

2024-09-06T04:02:21Z

In reply to nevent1q…vhp6
_________________________

#WalletOfSatoshi rugged pull some of their users (if not why can’t I transfer out my funds?) and if I was still a user of WoS I would make sure to only keep amounts I’m comfortable losing.

Is there a non-custodian option that doesn’t require to run your own #Lightning node? I think that is the case for #Phoenix but I’m now wary of this option as I thought funds would be safe on #Mutiny which was non-custodial but it turns out that you can still suddenly lose access to your funds unless you’re willing to set up your own node after losing access. Wouldn’t it be the case for Phoenix as well?

#Bitcoin

Is there an easy way to set up a #Lightning wallet on #Nostr to ...

2024-09-06T03:27:24Z

Is there an easy way to set up a #Lightning wallet on #Nostr to send and receive #zaps without encountering the risk of loosing my funds in the future due to updates out of my control?

I’m asking because I already lost my sats (thanksfully an insignificant amount) when #WalletOfSatoshi rug pulled its users and I understand similar situations have happened with #Mutiny (although the funds could be recover it requires technical proficiency to do so).

I think the answer is no but still #asknostr just in case.

#Bitcoin

What pieces would be missing to implement on-chain KYC if ...

2024-08-08T22:02:09Z

In reply to nevent1q…uz6k
_________________________

What pieces would be missing to implement on-chain KYC if recursive covenants are enabled?

Regarding the possibility to do it with multisig, my understanding is that it would be easier for regulators to have it implemented/enforced through recursive covenants.

Isn’t Mutiny non-custodial? Why would it be a rug pull if you ...

2024-08-08T17:27:48Z

In reply to nevent1q…zjsc
_________________________

Isn’t Mutiny non-custodial? Why would it be a rug pull if you can still withdraw your funds?

True, but this mechanism isn’t as flexible as what would be ...

2024-06-11T19:33:44Z

In reply to nevent1q…m90n
_________________________

True, but this mechanism isn’t as flexible as what would be allowed with recursive covenants.

I’m surprised there is no more outrage from bitcoiners ...

2024-05-13T21:29:41Z

I’m surprised there is no more outrage from bitcoiners regarding #covenants. After doing a cursory research on the topic, it seems that covenants would mean the end of permissionless #Bitcoin and the generalization of #KYC-ed #BTC.

- Covenants can enforce spending outputs to KYCed addresses only.
- Covenants can enforce receiving BTC from KYCed addresses only
- #Covenant rules applied to a given output would propagate to future spending of this output.

In short, all BTC leaving a regulated entity could only be spend to KYCed addresses forever.

Maybe I missed it, but I haven’t seen the plebs being outrage about this risk for Bitcoin. I heard a lot more criticism about #drivechains though. This tell me that some of the vocal opposition is either controlled opposition or uninformed.

#OPCAT #OPCTV #drivechain

The US administration is advancing its plan for the ...

2024-05-13T17:04:12Z

The US administration is advancing its plan for the implementation of a #DigitalID.

#CBDC #TheGreatReset

https://reclaimthenet.org/biden-cybersecurity-plan-vows-to-support-development-of-a-digital-identity-ecosystem

Soon people will have to choose between using #crypto or #CBDC. ...

2023-02-18T22:47:14Z

Soon people will have to choose between using #crypto or #CBDC. Freedom Money VS. Prison Money. It seems to me like the choice is obvious.