2026-02-05T14:59:19Z https://nostr.now Marcus Satbard https://nostr.now/npub1kt3zf9yrvf9su558yfepw9mzvqax6yc57gwqecp035jal2ktk30shk98al https://i.imgur.com/2oS7PbX.jpg https://i.imgur.com/2oS7PbX.jpg https://nostr.now/nevent1qqsq23l995dv6n753udl82stlxkk77s3ap88rwg0rtr0rayc07hjd5czyzewyfy5sd3ykrjjsu38y9chvfsr5mgnznepcr8q97xjtha2ew6979dfqqk In reply to <a href='/nevent1qqsqqqzayws2f844j6mtuawmk64f5kvn7xmp63feh3dfnca4lyfpw4spz4mhxue69uhhyetvv9ujuerpd46hxtnfduhssmatuf'>nevent1q…atuf</a><br/>_________________________<br/><br/><span itemprop="mentions" itemscope itemtype="https://schema.org/Person"><a itemprop="url" href="/nprofile1qqs2fj6373scelx3dvknzuwyvctehmvwr97y8wze3q3mqn0zvm80zyqppemhxue69uhkummn9ekx7mp0qywhwumn8ghj7mn0wd68ytnzd96xxmmfdejhytnnda3kjctv9u5luues" class="bg-lavender dark:prose:text-neutral-50 dark:text-neutral-50 dark:bg-garnet px-1"><span>Clark Moody</span> (<span class="italic">nprofile…uues</span>)</a></span> the hash price has been broken for a few days. 2026-10-27T14:58:51Z https://nostr.now/nevent1qqswverd3gkh03zqjdgnx42ftpzkmz3qwk23q7pmrhqe4we6hxwxhlqzyzewyfy5sd3ykrjjsu38y9chvfsr5mgnznepcr8q97xjtha2ew697dm8zxq In reply to <a href='/nevent1qqs22vt3lkh84tugf059uan874fa3pny6l6hehtxhmsteklpnp37clgpzamhxue69uhkummnw3ezuct60fsk6mewdejhgtcxvry0a'>nevent1q…ry0a</a><br/>_________________________<br/><br/>I haven&#39;t received any sats 2026-10-27T07:29:45Z https://nostr.now/nevent1qqs22vt3lkh84tugf059uan874fa3pny6l6hehtxhmsteklpnp37clgzyzewyfy5sd3ykrjjsu38y9chvfsr5mgnznepcr8q97xjtha2ew6975t0zuc In reply to <a href='/nevent1qqsf8t5qfv5ewv30y2ujtx4n2w6c8ca7zevqssmm4hujjqjtnyfekwgpzamhxue69uhhyetvv9ujuurjd9kkzmpwdejhgtcp2zse3'>nevent1q…zse3</a><br/>_________________________<br/><br/>Odell back on RHR npub1kt3zf9@sats.mobi 2026-10-17T17:24:42Z https://nostr.now/nevent1qqspfda6jf7k6xtvytgrwshl9ek5980kxksjpkepg3pr0kextsep3rczyzewyfy5sd3ykrjjsu38y9chvfsr5mgnznepcr8q97xjtha2ew697mpepft In reply to <a href='/nevent1qqsyuer4uua86y5p0y66wfwvwhpmg7mda2h63v0zjxqz6s43kt79g2spzamhxue69uhhyetvv9ujuurjd9kkzmpwdejhgtcwg4f59'>nevent1q…4f59</a><br/>_________________________<br/><br/>Napastnika to bym zostawił dla znaczenia fizycznej napaści na kogoś. Tutaj bardziej pasuje cyberprzestępca. 2026-10-09T07:23:18Z https://nostr.now/nevent1qqsrrzrr6qs5rkruy23ctarz9m6ax696wnrnw8kq4m2v38k772kwy0gzyzewyfy5sd3ykrjjsu38y9chvfsr5mgnznepcr8q97xjtha2ew697geajtt In reply to <a href='/nevent1qqs0rzmnvlzg2rathd5seldez2wd84s30f2ylp9ydq0a4gf0eu5ljvcpr9mhxue69uhhqun9d45h2mfwwpexjmtpdshxuet59ulgyf5e'>nevent1q…yf5e</a><br/>_________________________<br/><br/>He does the editing for Knut&#39;s podcast but does not work for him 🤡 2026-07-23T06:56:13Z https://nostr.now/nevent1qqsq6ezyzqvnaeut0wayx023tc054urvskaj4mlx9xphklf3ky2vngczyzewyfy5sd3ykrjjsu38y9chvfsr5mgnznepcr8q97xjtha2ew697kdg3nw In reply to <a href='/nevent1qqs2657hz7mdrduttaysdqgtsde2c25klt72f609lquc7xq84hv0pjcpzamhxue69uhhyetvv9ujuurjd9kkzmpwdejhgtcpj0z5e'>nevent1q…0z5e</a><br/>_________________________<br/><br/>Community warning: a shitfork shill who promotes the fork but refuses to swap sats to get more on its side, hence himself deeming it less valuable<br/><blockquote class="border-l-05rem border-l-strongpink border-solid"><div class="-ml-4 bg-gradient-to-r from-gray-100 dark:from-zinc-800 to-transparent mr-0 mt-0 mb-4 pl-4 pr-2 py-2">quoting <br/><span itemprop="mentions" itemscope itemtype="https://schema.org/Article"><a itemprop="url" href="/nevent1qqsvwxur99dpn7euhuq0vrspkr3j7q3fpanlmemcfr7eguzavrs64qq5jlymc" class="bg-lavender dark:prose:text-neutral-50 dark:text-neutral-50 dark:bg-garnet px-1">nevent1q…lymc</a></span> </div> It’s important to have a futures market with any contentious fork in Bitcoin.<br/><br/>Why?<br/><br/>Because the party forking gets what is called the “free call option”.<br/><br/>They can tweet, do long monologue videos about how their fork will win, and how no one will oppose them. They can use company resources to legally pressure miners, post populist rhetoric disassociated from reality (pľēb şľőp) and then… wait.<br/><br/>The activation comes, and they are delta neutral on a fork.<br/><br/>If…<br/><br/>No fork happens - they have their bitcoin.<br/>The fork is successful - they have their bitcoin.<br/>A chain split happens - they get Bitcoin on each side of the fork <br/><br/>See the problem? There is an opportunity cost of time and resources coordinating the fork (maybe reputation too), but that’s it! They can antagonize the network at no cost of bitcoin.<br/><br/>It’s worse than that though, everyone who told them they were wrong can’t even dump their hostile fork if they fail to even launch it.<br/><br/>The actual party who has to put up material cost in a fork are the miners. Since they cannot mine on both chains at once, they must choose where to secure coins. The only publicly stated mining pool position on this fork is f2 pool opposing it (~12% of hash rate).<br/><br/>My proposed on chain futures market requires no ecosystem coordination. The Bitcoin is settled automatically, and in the event there is a chain split, each side gets 2 BTC (each party gets the bitcoin they think will “win”).<br/><br/>A futures market forces actors among the Bitcoin network with different opinions to put skin in the game, price the risk, and act. It presents an opportunity to lock up Bitcoin for a time, and profit as a rational actor if they have conviction in their position.<br/><br/>The market will do this independent of your wishes otherwise. Via prediction markets, on chain, or exchange future markets (any exchange could get fees for swapping the fork to buy more bitcoin). We saw futures markets with the last contentious fork in 2017 when bitfinex listed futures.<br/><br/>If no market forms at all, it shows there are not two sides to the market, I’m here as one side of the market, so we know the side that is a no show.<br/><br/>This kind of weakness is death for a fork. If the side forking is unwilling to burn the ships, and put their bitcoin at risk, they are of low conviction and the fork will fail.<br/><br/>There will be a myriad of reasons as to why people who are so vocal and certain that BIP 444 will activate, won’t bet. To be clear, it’s cope.<br/><br/>Their optimal positioning as it relates to the opportunity to wager is:<br/><br/>1. Ignore<br/>2. Public consider the bet, but to never commit.<br/>3. Hand wave any reason to say the market is either immoral, illegitimate, impractical etc.<br/><br/>Any of these maintains the illusion of strength when they are actually weak. A requirement in fork psychology is to appear as if it’s a certainty, because forking is a game of chicken with the network.<br/><br/>A 1:1 ratio implies a 50% chance likelihood to succeed, far lower than they’d have you believe success is.<br/><br/>Additionally, to counter offer with a differnt ratio/odds gives up the game. They blink, show their hand and signal that they think 50% is way to high of a likelihood, and all the bluster comes tumbling down.<br/><br/>I’ve given feedback on the GitHub already from a technical perspective my objections to the BIP, they went largely unaddressed before the GitHub was locked.<br/><br/>Notice who will continue engaging in this content without taking the bet, they are seeking attention because they must consume the discourse as their shred of a hope to win.<br/><br/>Surely, there is already rumbling of restricting how 444 works, already a weakening of their position.<br/><br/>People will say I am wrong, but won’t take the wager.<br/><br/>Makes you think right?<br/><br/>I’ll give 10% of my potential winnings from the contract if you refer a BIP444 proponent into actually making the bet with me.<br/><br/>So whenever you see someone talking about the certainty of this fork activating, link them to this post so we can both make some bitcoin! </blockquote> 2026-07-22T18:36:30Z https://nostr.now/nevent1qqsf2pqcyypf95xfm4zjstnfyp3adfak5ewxszwutawfqjudz4fe33gzyzewyfy5sd3ykrjjsu38y9chvfsr5mgnznepcr8q97xjtha2ew697hf673m In reply to <a href='/nevent1qqsp42y0ev0q332jasqttuy6pax6c99z3m7femu6n0rv8z65fwaqqhspzamhxue69uhhyetvv9ujuurjd9kkzmpwdejhgtcg96g4k'>nevent1q…6g4k</a><br/>_________________________<br/><br/>Community warning: a shitfork shill who promotes the fork but refuses to swap sats to get more on its side, hence himself deeming it less valuable<br/><blockquote class="border-l-05rem border-l-strongpink border-solid"><div class="-ml-4 bg-gradient-to-r from-gray-100 dark:from-zinc-800 to-transparent mr-0 mt-0 mb-4 pl-4 pr-2 py-2">quoting <br/><span itemprop="mentions" itemscope itemtype="https://schema.org/Article"><a itemprop="url" href="/nevent1qqsvwxur99dpn7euhuq0vrspkr3j7q3fpanlmemcfr7eguzavrs64qq5jlymc" class="bg-lavender dark:prose:text-neutral-50 dark:text-neutral-50 dark:bg-garnet px-1">nevent1q…lymc</a></span> </div> It’s important to have a futures market with any contentious fork in Bitcoin.<br/><br/>Why?<br/><br/>Because the party forking gets what is called the “free call option”.<br/><br/>They can tweet, do long monologue videos about how their fork will win, and how no one will oppose them. They can use company resources to legally pressure miners, post populist rhetoric disassociated from reality (pľēb şľőp) and then… wait.<br/><br/>The activation comes, and they are delta neutral on a fork.<br/><br/>If…<br/><br/>No fork happens - they have their bitcoin.<br/>The fork is successful - they have their bitcoin.<br/>A chain split happens - they get Bitcoin on each side of the fork <br/><br/>See the problem? There is an opportunity cost of time and resources coordinating the fork (maybe reputation too), but that’s it! They can antagonize the network at no cost of bitcoin.<br/><br/>It’s worse than that though, everyone who told them they were wrong can’t even dump their hostile fork if they fail to even launch it.<br/><br/>The actual party who has to put up material cost in a fork are the miners. Since they cannot mine on both chains at once, they must choose where to secure coins. The only publicly stated mining pool position on this fork is f2 pool opposing it (~12% of hash rate).<br/><br/>My proposed on chain futures market requires no ecosystem coordination. The Bitcoin is settled automatically, and in the event there is a chain split, each side gets 2 BTC (each party gets the bitcoin they think will “win”).<br/><br/>A futures market forces actors among the Bitcoin network with different opinions to put skin in the game, price the risk, and act. It presents an opportunity to lock up Bitcoin for a time, and profit as a rational actor if they have conviction in their position.<br/><br/>The market will do this independent of your wishes otherwise. Via prediction markets, on chain, or exchange future markets (any exchange could get fees for swapping the fork to buy more bitcoin). We saw futures markets with the last contentious fork in 2017 when bitfinex listed futures.<br/><br/>If no market forms at all, it shows there are not two sides to the market, I’m here as one side of the market, so we know the side that is a no show.<br/><br/>This kind of weakness is death for a fork. If the side forking is unwilling to burn the ships, and put their bitcoin at risk, they are of low conviction and the fork will fail.<br/><br/>There will be a myriad of reasons as to why people who are so vocal and certain that BIP 444 will activate, won’t bet. To be clear, it’s cope.<br/><br/>Their optimal positioning as it relates to the opportunity to wager is:<br/><br/>1. Ignore<br/>2. Public consider the bet, but to never commit.<br/>3. Hand wave any reason to say the market is either immoral, illegitimate, impractical etc.<br/><br/>Any of these maintains the illusion of strength when they are actually weak. A requirement in fork psychology is to appear as if it’s a certainty, because forking is a game of chicken with the network.<br/><br/>A 1:1 ratio implies a 50% chance likelihood to succeed, far lower than they’d have you believe success is.<br/><br/>Additionally, to counter offer with a differnt ratio/odds gives up the game. They blink, show their hand and signal that they think 50% is way to high of a likelihood, and all the bluster comes tumbling down.<br/><br/>I’ve given feedback on the GitHub already from a technical perspective my objections to the BIP, they went largely unaddressed before the GitHub was locked.<br/><br/>Notice who will continue engaging in this content without taking the bet, they are seeking attention because they must consume the discourse as their shred of a hope to win.<br/><br/>Surely, there is already rumbling of restricting how 444 works, already a weakening of their position.<br/><br/>People will say I am wrong, but won’t take the wager.<br/><br/>Makes you think right?<br/><br/>I’ll give 10% of my potential winnings from the contract if you refer a BIP444 proponent into actually making the bet with me.<br/><br/>So whenever you see someone talking about the certainty of this fork activating, link them to this post so we can both make some bitcoin! </blockquote> 2026-07-19T05:31:29Z https://nostr.now/nevent1qqsxsl62vw7yc7d2l7s5wtt8xsvaauzp0f22zsukdgkhdcxqdlf683gzyzewyfy5sd3ykrjjsu38y9chvfsr5mgnznepcr8q97xjtha2ew697w7trhw In reply to <a href='/nevent1qqsdt6606prv55lhhv5al5yd5rx3hsr9xxgxaawvq3dsjh6mc0raxtspzamhxue69uhhyetvv9ujuurjd9kkzmpwdejhgtcva36eg'>nevent1q…36eg</a><br/>_________________________<br/><br/>Community warning: a shitfork liar who promotes the fork but refuses to swap sats to get more on its side, hence himself deeming it less valuable<br/><blockquote class="border-l-05rem border-l-strongpink border-solid"><div class="-ml-4 bg-gradient-to-r from-gray-100 dark:from-zinc-800 to-transparent mr-0 mt-0 mb-4 pl-4 pr-2 py-2">quoting <br/><span itemprop="mentions" itemscope itemtype="https://schema.org/Article"><a itemprop="url" href="/nevent1qqsvwxur99dpn7euhuq0vrspkr3j7q3fpanlmemcfr7eguzavrs64qq5jlymc" class="bg-lavender dark:prose:text-neutral-50 dark:text-neutral-50 dark:bg-garnet px-1">nevent1q…lymc</a></span> </div> It’s important to have a futures market with any contentious fork in Bitcoin.<br/><br/>Why?<br/><br/>Because the party forking gets what is called the “free call option”.<br/><br/>They can tweet, do long monologue videos about how their fork will win, and how no one will oppose them. They can use company resources to legally pressure miners, post populist rhetoric disassociated from reality (pľēb şľőp) and then… wait.<br/><br/>The activation comes, and they are delta neutral on a fork.<br/><br/>If…<br/><br/>No fork happens - they have their bitcoin.<br/>The fork is successful - they have their bitcoin.<br/>A chain split happens - they get Bitcoin on each side of the fork <br/><br/>See the problem? There is an opportunity cost of time and resources coordinating the fork (maybe reputation too), but that’s it! They can antagonize the network at no cost of bitcoin.<br/><br/>It’s worse than that though, everyone who told them they were wrong can’t even dump their hostile fork if they fail to even launch it.<br/><br/>The actual party who has to put up material cost in a fork are the miners. Since they cannot mine on both chains at once, they must choose where to secure coins. The only publicly stated mining pool position on this fork is f2 pool opposing it (~12% of hash rate).<br/><br/>My proposed on chain futures market requires no ecosystem coordination. The Bitcoin is settled automatically, and in the event there is a chain split, each side gets 2 BTC (each party gets the bitcoin they think will “win”).<br/><br/>A futures market forces actors among the Bitcoin network with different opinions to put skin in the game, price the risk, and act. It presents an opportunity to lock up Bitcoin for a time, and profit as a rational actor if they have conviction in their position.<br/><br/>The market will do this independent of your wishes otherwise. Via prediction markets, on chain, or exchange future markets (any exchange could get fees for swapping the fork to buy more bitcoin). We saw futures markets with the last contentious fork in 2017 when bitfinex listed futures.<br/><br/>If no market forms at all, it shows there are not two sides to the market, I’m here as one side of the market, so we know the side that is a no show.<br/><br/>This kind of weakness is death for a fork. If the side forking is unwilling to burn the ships, and put their bitcoin at risk, they are of low conviction and the fork will fail.<br/><br/>There will be a myriad of reasons as to why people who are so vocal and certain that BIP 444 will activate, won’t bet. To be clear, it’s cope.<br/><br/>Their optimal positioning as it relates to the opportunity to wager is:<br/><br/>1. Ignore<br/>2. Public consider the bet, but to never commit.<br/>3. Hand wave any reason to say the market is either immoral, illegitimate, impractical etc.<br/><br/>Any of these maintains the illusion of strength when they are actually weak. A requirement in fork psychology is to appear as if it’s a certainty, because forking is a game of chicken with the network.<br/><br/>A 1:1 ratio implies a 50% chance likelihood to succeed, far lower than they’d have you believe success is.<br/><br/>Additionally, to counter offer with a differnt ratio/odds gives up the game. They blink, show their hand and signal that they think 50% is way to high of a likelihood, and all the bluster comes tumbling down.<br/><br/>I’ve given feedback on the GitHub already from a technical perspective my objections to the BIP, they went largely unaddressed before the GitHub was locked.<br/><br/>Notice who will continue engaging in this content without taking the bet, they are seeking attention because they must consume the discourse as their shred of a hope to win.<br/><br/>Surely, there is already rumbling of restricting how 444 works, already a weakening of their position.<br/><br/>People will say I am wrong, but won’t take the wager.<br/><br/>Makes you think right?<br/><br/>I’ll give 10% of my potential winnings from the contract if you refer a BIP444 proponent into actually making the bet with me.<br/><br/>So whenever you see someone talking about the certainty of this fork activating, link them to this post so we can both make some bitcoin! </blockquote> 2026-07-18T06:09:12Z https://nostr.now/nevent1qqsf8tl2m8thsrztgfd28jzpyn7kdf657upuczmwsz3ahdcrl900efgzyzewyfy5sd3ykrjjsu38y9chvfsr5mgnznepcr8q97xjtha2ew697m3h2x0 KYC is a crime against humanity. Don&#39;t strip in front of criminals if you care about your family&#39;s safety. The best option is to buy p2p from a trusted bitcoiner who earns in bitcoin, like me.<br/><blockquote class="border-l-05rem border-l-strongpink border-solid"><div class="-ml-4 bg-gradient-to-r from-gray-100 dark:from-zinc-800 to-transparent mr-0 mt-0 mb-4 pl-4 pr-2 py-2">quoting <br/><span itemprop="mentions" itemscope itemtype="https://schema.org/Article"><a itemprop="url" href="/nevent1qqsx9ch4m49m6qlm3putw3xg5fwl90gyxk3x08lh05rzt5vwgjmzjtgpzamhxue69uhhyetvv9ujuurjd9kkzmpwdejhgtczyqlnlaadkwg4n3pvp2sk657qfqalh7k40hez4857jdj2xpn5r6ev7qcyqqqqqqgl6zpd4" class="bg-lavender dark:prose:text-neutral-50 dark:text-neutral-50 dark:bg-garnet px-1">nevent1q…zpd4</a></span> </div> In Europe, DAC8 has turned “Know Your Customer” into “Kill Your Customer.”<br/><br/>Today, Bull Bitcoin is officially opening the first legal front against DAC8.<br/><br/>We have brought a case before France’s Conseil d’État, the country’s highest administrative court, to strike down the decree implementing DAC8 in French law.<br/><br/>Since January 1, 2026, DAC8 has required crypto-asset service providers to systematically collect user and transaction data and subsequently report it to national tax authorities.<br/><br/>These authorities will automatically exchange this information across the European Union and with tax administrations in other participating countries around the world.<br/><br/>The result is a massive international financial-data honeypot linking people’s legal identities, home addresses and crypto activity, including information with no relevance whatsoever to taxation.<br/><br/>This is grossly disproportionate and poses a serious threat to the physical safety of crypto holders and their families.<br/><br/>Until now, most customer data remained within each crypto-asset service provider unless a suspicious transaction was reported or a competent authority made a lawful request.<br/><br/>DAC8 replaces this model with the systematic reporting and cross-border sharing of highly sensitive financial information.<br/><br/>The more authorities, civil servants, contractors, systems and foreign jurisdictions that have access to this data, the greater the risk that it will eventually be leaked, stolen, illegally accessed or sold to criminal organizations.<br/><br/>At the same time, kidnappings and violent attacks against crypto holders and their families are rising, with leaked personal and financial data increasingly being used to identify and target victims.<br/><br/>France has already suffered numerous breaches of highly sensitive government and financial databases.<br/><br/>Given enough time, a database of this scale is almost certain to be breached.<br/><br/>When that happens, criminal organizations will gain a ready-made map of who to target and where to find them.<br/><br/>This is not responsible financial oversight. It is a recipe for disaster.<br/><br/>We filed our initial application before the Conseil d’État on February 24, 2026, followed by a substantive legal brief setting out the full grounds of our case.<br/><br/>This is not a symbolic gesture. It is a serious legal action, grounded in law and handled by experienced legal professionals.<br/><br/>We are seeking the outright annulment of the French decree implementing DAC8’s crypto-asset reporting regime, on the grounds that automated mass financial-data collection violates fundamental human rights.<br/><br/>If necessary, we are prepared to take this fight before the Court of Justice of the European Union and the French Constitutional Council.<br/><br/>A victory in France could establish an important judicial precedent and provide a blueprint for other European actors seeking to fight DAC8 in their own countries.<br/><br/>Someone has to draw a line in the sand.<br/><br/>Bull Bitcoin is willing to do it.<br/><br/>Alongside this legal challenge, we are launching: <a href="https://dac8.com">https://dac8.com</a><br/>A complete, fully sourced resource for citizens, journalists and policymakers.<br/><br/>JOIN THE FIGHT. Read it, share it.<br/><br/>Watch <span itemprop="mentions" itemscope itemtype="https://schema.org/Person"><a itemprop="url" href="/nprofile1qyv8wumn8ghj7mn0wd68ytn90p68yctzd968xtnfduq3jamnwvaz7tmwdaehgu3wwpskcctwv35jucmvda6kgqpqt289s8ck5qfwynf2vsq49t2kypvvkpj7rhegayrur0ag9s2sezaqggvcjg" class="bg-lavender dark:prose:text-neutral-50 dark:text-neutral-50 dark:bg-garnet px-1"><span>FRANCIS</span> (<span class="italic">nprofile…vcjg</span>)</a></span> keynote at <span itemprop="mentions" itemscope itemtype="https://schema.org/Person"><a itemprop="url" href="/nprofile1qqsd0f68dvf98gvs9am9dp0lu0f4r7xzu2k89rm9tt448axf5tu6wlgphpy4c" class="bg-lavender dark:prose:text-neutral-50 dark:text-neutral-50 dark:bg-garnet px-1"><span>BTCPrague</span> (<span class="italic">nprofile…py4c</span>)</a></span> on the threat DAC8 poses to crypto holders and why Bull Bitcoin is leading the fight against it 👇<a href="https://x.com/BULLBITCOIN_/status/2074770378350617052">https://x.com/BULLBITCOIN_/status/2074770378350617052</a><br/> <img src="https://blossom.primal.net/b0cf57b9d2c8305a472a3f60d07996c08ed59138eb04279fbeb0fb86e4fcc332.png"> <br/><br/> </blockquote> 2026-07-09T07:17:10Z https://nostr.now/nevent1qqswphvh9s8yu8yu22ehmm3wz3wm9dpqeuue56xh0rnqh5utpshz06czyzewyfy5sd3ykrjjsu38y9chvfsr5mgnznepcr8q97xjtha2ew697gdkwnp In reply to <a href='/nevent1qqswc48x2h5znvk05dtvutz7acrxs9sdg5ew8qr3juvz9cuk2skmehgpzamhxue69uhhyetvv9ujuurjd9kkzmpwdejhgtc4xuasa'>nevent1q…uasa</a><br/>_________________________<br/><br/>Community warning: a shitfork liar who sold out to provide a platform for the fork promotion but refuses to swap sats to get more on its side, hence deeming himself it less valuable<br/><blockquote class="border-l-05rem border-l-strongpink border-solid"><div class="-ml-4 bg-gradient-to-r from-gray-100 dark:from-zinc-800 to-transparent mr-0 mt-0 mb-4 pl-4 pr-2 py-2">quoting <br/><span itemprop="mentions" itemscope itemtype="https://schema.org/Article"><a itemprop="url" href="/nevent1qqsvwxur99dpn7euhuq0vrspkr3j7q3fpanlmemcfr7eguzavrs64qq5jlymc" class="bg-lavender dark:prose:text-neutral-50 dark:text-neutral-50 dark:bg-garnet px-1">nevent1q…lymc</a></span> </div> It’s important to have a futures market with any contentious fork in Bitcoin.<br/><br/>Why?<br/><br/>Because the party forking gets what is called the “free call option”.<br/><br/>They can tweet, do long monologue videos about how their fork will win, and how no one will oppose them. They can use company resources to legally pressure miners, post populist rhetoric disassociated from reality (pľēb şľőp) and then… wait.<br/><br/>The activation comes, and they are delta neutral on a fork.<br/><br/>If…<br/><br/>No fork happens - they have their bitcoin.<br/>The fork is successful - they have their bitcoin.<br/>A chain split happens - they get Bitcoin on each side of the fork <br/><br/>See the problem? There is an opportunity cost of time and resources coordinating the fork (maybe reputation too), but that’s it! They can antagonize the network at no cost of bitcoin.<br/><br/>It’s worse than that though, everyone who told them they were wrong can’t even dump their hostile fork if they fail to even launch it.<br/><br/>The actual party who has to put up material cost in a fork are the miners. Since they cannot mine on both chains at once, they must choose where to secure coins. The only publicly stated mining pool position on this fork is f2 pool opposing it (~12% of hash rate).<br/><br/>My proposed on chain futures market requires no ecosystem coordination. The Bitcoin is settled automatically, and in the event there is a chain split, each side gets 2 BTC (each party gets the bitcoin they think will “win”).<br/><br/>A futures market forces actors among the Bitcoin network with different opinions to put skin in the game, price the risk, and act. It presents an opportunity to lock up Bitcoin for a time, and profit as a rational actor if they have conviction in their position.<br/><br/>The market will do this independent of your wishes otherwise. Via prediction markets, on chain, or exchange future markets (any exchange could get fees for swapping the fork to buy more bitcoin). We saw futures markets with the last contentious fork in 2017 when bitfinex listed futures.<br/><br/>If no market forms at all, it shows there are not two sides to the market, I’m here as one side of the market, so we know the side that is a no show.<br/><br/>This kind of weakness is death for a fork. If the side forking is unwilling to burn the ships, and put their bitcoin at risk, they are of low conviction and the fork will fail.<br/><br/>There will be a myriad of reasons as to why people who are so vocal and certain that BIP 444 will activate, won’t bet. To be clear, it’s cope.<br/><br/>Their optimal positioning as it relates to the opportunity to wager is:<br/><br/>1. Ignore<br/>2. Public consider the bet, but to never commit.<br/>3. Hand wave any reason to say the market is either immoral, illegitimate, impractical etc.<br/><br/>Any of these maintains the illusion of strength when they are actually weak. A requirement in fork psychology is to appear as if it’s a certainty, because forking is a game of chicken with the network.<br/><br/>A 1:1 ratio implies a 50% chance likelihood to succeed, far lower than they’d have you believe success is.<br/><br/>Additionally, to counter offer with a differnt ratio/odds gives up the game. They blink, show their hand and signal that they think 50% is way to high of a likelihood, and all the bluster comes tumbling down.<br/><br/>I’ve given feedback on the GitHub already from a technical perspective my objections to the BIP, they went largely unaddressed before the GitHub was locked.<br/><br/>Notice who will continue engaging in this content without taking the bet, they are seeking attention because they must consume the discourse as their shred of a hope to win.<br/><br/>Surely, there is already rumbling of restricting how 444 works, already a weakening of their position.<br/><br/>People will say I am wrong, but won’t take the wager.<br/><br/>Makes you think right?<br/><br/>I’ll give 10% of my potential winnings from the contract if you refer a BIP444 proponent into actually making the bet with me.<br/><br/>So whenever you see someone talking about the certainty of this fork activating, link them to this post so we can both make some bitcoin! </blockquote> 2026-05-21T14:28:02Z https://nostr.now/nevent1qqs8rnh5v96crd9q6msarljf8l9rhcw9esl9umalw5eg2ung60z0v0qzyzewyfy5sd3ykrjjsu38y9chvfsr5mgnznepcr8q97xjtha2ew697j6fzuy In reply to <a href='/nevent1qqsvj5anfj365uhmmpc3xv8rfu9m74vzuaqwrykkasddegptuxrefhspzamhxue69uhhyetvv9ujuurjd9kkzmpwdejhgtcz7dp9t'>nevent1q…dp9t</a><br/>_________________________<br/><br/>Burning sats on cloud mining is not decentralization, it&#39;s not incentive compatible 2026-04-02T11:05:43Z https://nostr.now/nevent1qqsvl7cfcv8a6xmx6vu0u0spjx4fr6jvk8yxtfveg739pl6p9hhmjrszyzewyfy5sd3ykrjjsu38y9chvfsr5mgnznepcr8q97xjtha2ew6973t37ax In reply to <a href='/nevent1qqs8ruva80rellerpew2upjr8qqqm3cn5zyktllductnuhf0m9fx7hcppemhxue69uhkummn9ekx7mp0p6xuc7'>nevent1q…xuc7</a><br/>_________________________<br/><br/>It&#39;s way less when you price in custiodial/beta platform risks, locking capital for 6 months and the fees. I estimate the chances at below 2% but having my buy No trigger below 90%. The other side has plenty of margin to price in those factors. 2026-03-05T07:05:51Z https://nostr.now/nevent1qqsxr2syt7lcphtye46cm7z8f7dnullacs8xsygxu8yvgq4j5a53y8gzyzewyfy5sd3ykrjjsu38y9chvfsr5mgnznepcr8q97xjtha2ew697qgt0w9 In reply to <a href='/nevent1qqsgx5pp0txpgq9wwsj0xesxeel6kaqs7q25r73k0d6mr0smhvyfxfgpzamhxue69uhhyetvv9ujuurjd9kkzmpwdejhgtcq37afq'>nevent1q…7afq</a><br/>_________________________<br/><br/>Indeed, it should be called BEP: Bitcoin Enshitification Proposal 2026-01-29T10:42:40Z