Nostr notes by Peter du Toit

Nepal, the least responsible for the ~427 ppm CO2 in the ...

2026-10-11T13:07:57Z

Nepal, the least responsible for the ~427 ppm CO2 in the atmosphere, is currently on the front lines of the #ClimateCrisis

IPCC (‘23) one of the places most at risk in the near-term (‘23-‘40): “Places where people and species live in close proximity to seasonal rivers.”

https://youtu.be/veaTu3mEvoc

Because of the relentless burning of fossil fuels and the ...

2026-08-08T05:37:43Z

Because of the relentless burning of fossil fuels and the resulting atmospheric pollution, we are rapidly leaving what was the climatic safe zone.

We are unprepared for lies outside this zone.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/gallery/2026/aug/07/europe-dry-riverbeds-scorched-earth-hot-weather-in-pictures

"The climate emergency kills and that’s why it’s not ...

2026-08-02T09:16:30Z

"The climate emergency kills and that’s why it’s not enough to address the consequences, which we do; what we have to do is reduce its causes, anticipate its effects, and, consequently, better prepare our country to protect people’s lives."—Pedro Sánchez

100% correct.

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2026/aug/02/climate-change-kills-pedro-sanchez-speaks-plain-truth-to-spains-deniers

“I thought I would have time to prepare.” IPCC 2023: “ High ...

2026-07-20T04:12:01Z

“I thought I would have time to prepare.”

IPCC 2023: “ High risks are now assessed to occur at lower global warming levels.”

We continue to underestimate the risk as we reach 1.5°C of heating. For the most part we are not prepared.

https://www.lemonde.fr/en/economy/article/2026/07/19/an-organic-farmer-s-dismay-at-the-speed-of-climate-change-i-thought-i-would-have-time-to-prepare_6755633_19.html

For the most part, we are completely & utterly unprepared for ...

2026-07-11T09:21:30Z

For the most part, we are completely & utterly unprepared for ~1.5ºC of heating. We underestimate the high risks at this level of heating.

We are certain, given our current non-emergency approach to curbing fossil fuel burning, that 2ºC will be passed. What happens then?

https://www.theguardian.com/education/2026/jul/11/uk-pupils-struggle-extreme-heat-schools-classrooms

Why buy a car that then results in being held hostage by fuel ...

2026-06-29T05:34:38Z

Why buy a car that then results in being held hostage by fuel prices when you can buy a car powered by the sun?

Being behind the transition curve is going to cost so many automakers!

https://english.kyodonews.net/articles/-/78856

Well there you have it - the oceans are currently hotter than ...

2026-06-21T09:53:19Z

Well there you have it - the oceans are currently hotter than they have ever been for this time of year.

Brought to you by our relentless fossil fuel burning ways.

Reality Check: The message on this cover of the UNEP Adaptation ...

2026-05-13T05:19:15Z

Reality Check:

The message on this cover of the UNEP Adaptation Gap Report 2023 remains 100% accurate 3 years later:

Underfinanced.
Underprepared.
Inadequate investment and planning on climate adaptation leaves world exposed

We are *completely* unprepared for what's coming.

#ClimateCrisis

This is such a joke. Bending the knee to the planet destroying ...

2026-04-23T04:53:44Z

This is such a joke.

Bending the knee to the planet destroying US. What the actual.

https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20260423-g7-climate-change-omits-paris-meeting-us-france

When you look at an image like this and realise this is all ...

2026-04-04T12:21:40Z

When you look at an image like this and realise this is *all* we’ve got, we need to jail every political leader and business executive that is hell-bent on destroying this jewel, our only home, for fossil fuel profit.

To hell with them all, seriously.

Maybe it is time to revisit the 10-Point Plan to Cut Oil Use? ...

2026-03-10T03:57:17Z

Maybe it is time to revisit the 10-Point Plan to Cut Oil Use?

This could reduce global oil demand by 2.7 million barrels a day in 4 months.

Source: https://www.iea.org/reports/a-10-point-plan-to-cut-oil-use

We are officially in the Age of Climate Chaos at ~1.5ºC At the ...

2026-02-16T06:53:49Z

We are officially in the Age of Climate Chaos at ~1.5ºC

At the current decadal heating trajectory we will reach 2ºC in the next ~12 years.

We are completely and UTTERLY unprepared.

#ClimateCrisis

Background global heating is at ~1.5ºC Current avg global CO2 ...

2026-01-25T06:10:49Z

Background global heating is at ~1.5ºC
Current avg global CO2 concentrations: 427.07 ppm

Global emissions from burning fossil fuels keeps rising. Heating will thus continue. We are now 75% certain we will reach 2ºC in ~16yrs at current heating rates.

What then?

#ClimateCrisis

https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-weather/heat-dome-heatwave-australia-summer-2026-wildfire-threat-mk/

This is a world at ~1.5ºC We are rapidly moving into the era of ...

2026-01-23T08:33:53Z

This is a world at ~1.5ºC

We are rapidly moving into the era of physical environment destabilisation.

Do you have a resilience plan in place?

https://www.climatecentre.org/16628/this-is-a-total-transformation-of-the-australian-summer/

#ClimateCrisis

The first half of January 2026 has averaged +1.55ºC above ...

2026-01-17T07:02:56Z

The first half of January 2026 has averaged +1.55ºC above preindustrial
Average global CO2 concentrations for the same period 427.03 ppm (vs 424.69 ppm for the same period in 2025)

Meanwhile fossil fuel usage remains firmly in place.

This is a highway to hell.

Graphic: https://pulse.climate.copernicus.eu
CO2 concentrations: https://gml.noaa.gov/ccgg/trends/gl_data.html

#ClimateCrisis

RE: https://fediscience.org/@ZLabe/115800336826737654 The three ...

2025-12-29T02:32:16Z

RE: https://fediscience.org/@ZLabe/115800336826737654

The three graphs that explain the escalating #ClimateCrisis

“To date, no [governments] have set targets to reduce oil and gas production or phase out inefficient fossil fuel subsidies”—UNEP 2025

As a result we are 75% certain to cross 2°C of heating.

We are on a highway to hell.
nostr:note1lthrgpzhkgf4zs5slhpu7stwrjm73usjkuz2x0u3vk6mque9wdxsppmgxg

From the frontlines of the #ClimateCrisis where 3.3 — 3.6 ...

2025-11-30T02:26:49Z

From the frontlines of the #ClimateCrisis where 3.3 — 3.6 BILLION people live.

All these climate refugee stories are taking place with the background global heating at ~1.5°C

With current government emission reduction commitments there is 75% chance heating will pass 2°C

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2025/nov/29/people-fleeing-climate-breakdown-in-pictures

"A climate decision that cannot even say fossil fuels is not ...

2025-11-22T18:45:09Z

"A climate decision that cannot even say fossil fuels is not neutrality, it is complicity. And what is happening here transcends incompetence.”— Juan Carlos Monterrey, Panama

https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/cop/cop30-talks-grind-into-overtime-eu-objects-proposed-deal-2025-11-22/

#COP30

The refusal to stop extracting and burning fossil fuels did this. ...

2025-11-19T11:17:54Z

The refusal to stop extracting and burning fossil fuels did this.

What a catastrophic unforgivable failure.

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2025/nov/19/two-out-of-three-corals-in-world-heritage-listed-ningaloo-reef-are-dead

This is where we are headed. Do you want to know why? UNEP ...

2025-11-05T03:53:58Z

This is where we are headed.

Do you want to know why?

UNEP Emissions Gap Report 2025:

“To date, no NDCs have set targets to reduce oil and gas production or phase out inefficient fossil fuel subsidies.”

Physics be damned. We are on a highway to hell.

#ClimateCrisis

Another 2025 report and another signal that we are failing at ...

2025-10-29T12:35:37Z

Another 2025 report and another signal that we are failing at facing the crisis head on.

No one is treating this as an emergency!

WMO: Emissions are still going up.
UNFFFC: Nations have only committed to 10% reduction in emissions by 2035 (35% required to stay below 2ºC)

Now this👇🏻

UNEP Adaptation Gap Report 2025: https://www.unep.org/resources/adaptation-gap-report-2025

Imagine not having to be held captive by the Petrostates! African ...

2025-10-12T08:01:11Z

Imagine not having to be held captive by the Petrostates!

African countries are discovering that energy security is within their reach!

Africa can leapfrog fossil fuels as electricity generation source!

Graphic source: https://ember-energy.org/latest-insights/the-first-evidence-of-a-take-off-in-solar-in-africa/

These charts are something else. New battery electric car sales ...

2025-10-09T13:24:29Z

These charts are something else.

New battery electric car sales so far in 2025:

China: 31%
US: 8%

Source: https://robbieandrew.github.io/carsales/

The emissions produced by this event will last in the atmosphere ...

2025-09-21T11:25:49Z

The emissions produced by this event will last in the atmosphere for 300 to 1,000 years.

Let's hope it's worth it.

https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/cop/new-york-eyes-record-climate-week-despite-trump-attacks-green-agenda-2025-09-20/

Why should employees be allowed to work from home at least 3 days ...

2025-09-19T09:18:07Z

Why should employees be allowed to work from home at least 3 days a week?

IEA: "Three days of working from home avoids around 𝟱𝟬𝟬,𝟬𝟬𝟬 𝗯𝗮𝗿𝗿𝗲𝗹𝘀 𝗼𝗳 𝗼𝗶𝗹 𝗽𝗲𝗿 𝗱𝗮𝘆" from being used.

We have the solutions we just need to use them!

Source: https://www.iea.org/reports/a-10-point-plan-to-cut-oil-use

#ClimateCrisis #Mitigation #WorkFromHome

In the US, the transport sector is responsible for most emissions ...

2025-09-15T18:12:01Z

In the US, the transport sector is responsible for most emissions (as is the case in many developed nations)

We know how to radically cut these emissions:

🚶‍♀️walk to work if you can
🚲 cycle to work if you can
🚋 use public transport more
🚗 drive less
✈️ fly less
👩🏻‍💻 meet online more
🏡 work from home more

And in case you are wondering what role the US has played in the ...

2025-08-21T04:47:20Z

In reply to nevent1q…nnjs
_________________________

And in case you are wondering what role the US has played in the mess we are in, here is the data:

Reminder: CO2, once in the atmosphere, doesn’t just vanish, it lasts there for 300-1,000 years with some lingering even longer.

Data: https://robbieandrew.github.io/GCB2024/

The science: Emissions need to fall by 5.5% in 2025 and EVERY ...

2025-08-21T04:21:19Z

The science: Emissions need to fall by 5.5% in 2025 and EVERY year thereafter to stand a chance of staying under 2°C

Meanwhile from the US, that has put more greenhouse gas pollution into the atmosphere than any nation on earth, comes this:

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/08/20/trump-says-us-will-not-approve-solar-or-wind-power-projects.html

The cooling towers of the Nottinghamshire coal power plant, which ...

2025-08-17T13:26:12Z

The cooling towers of the Nottinghamshire coal power plant, which operated 1968-2019 and was responsible for approximately ~400 million tonnes (MtCO₂) going into the atmosphere (and which will remain there for 300 to 1,000 years) were demolished Aug 14th.

Damage done.

But satisfying to see this!

Source: https://www.bbc.com/news/videos/cqle96yxd1vo

As we steadily march toward 2ºC this must never be forgotten: ...

2025-08-14T10:21:14Z

As we steadily march toward 2ºC this must *never* be forgotten:

All adaptation has limits!

and the lesser people (the majority) in democracies keep voting ...

2025-08-12T05:33:44Z

In reply to nevent1q…knmk
_________________________

and the lesser people (the majority) in democracies keep voting for people who are bought by the billionaires 🤷🏻

“We basically have three choices: mitigation, adaptation and ...

2025-08-12T03:27:36Z

“We basically have three choices: mitigation, adaptation and suffering. We’re going to do some of each. The question is what the mix is going to be. The more mitigation [reduction of emissions] we do, the less adaptation will be required and the less suffering there will be.”—Dr. John Holdren, 2007

We have clearly chosen suffering.

https://bsky.app/profile/glenpeters.bsky.social/post/3luzhodo4q22s

The chickens are coming home to roost. Current instrument ...

2025-08-11T14:23:26Z

The chickens are coming home to roost.

Current instrument readings:

+1.53°C (12-month running mean)
425 ppm CO2 (global average year to date)
1935 ppb CH4 (global average year to date)

https://apnews.com/article/weather-wisconsin-flooding-rain-1557a999c587bc9c6d6fe0bb6363add2

#ClimateCrisis

"Climate-based conscientious objection" dr. Gianluca ...

2025-08-05T08:08:53Z

"Climate-based conscientious objection" dr. Gianluca Grimaldaas (https://bsky.app/profile/did:plc:xixmnxupkvdopxempni6pifd) likes to call it, is making people make some radical choices.

Case in point former pilot George Hibberd.

It's also great to hear these individuals tell their stories!

https://vm.tiktok.com/ZMSEr4fe1/

#ClimateCrisis

Have just spent sometime going through the UN's new Global ...

2025-07-20T08:05:47Z

Have just spent sometime going through the UN's new Global Risk report. My only conclusion is for the most part there is a complete blind spot as to what is coming!

https://peterdutoit.com/we-dont-see-it-coming/

#ClimateCrisis

NEW Preliminary ERA5 data: November 2024 ended at +1.62ºC above ...

2024-12-02T05:28:55Z

NEW Preliminary ERA5 data:

November 2024 ended at +1.62ºC above the 1850-1900 November average
12-month running mean is now +1.61ºC

Final confirmation of the above later this week.

#ClimateLiteracy #ClimateCrisis

IPCC Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability report 2022: “Global ...

2024-11-25T12:42:52Z

IPCC Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability report 2022:

“Global warming, reaching 1.5°C in the near-term, would cause unavoidable increases in multiple climate hazards and present multiple risks to ecosystems and humans (𝙫𝙚𝙧𝙮 𝙝𝙞𝙜𝙝 𝙘𝙤𝙣𝙛𝙞𝙙𝙚𝙣𝙘𝙚).”

#SouthWales #StormBert #ClimateLiteracy

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cgj7qvj097po

Refusing to admit the global failure at keeping below +1.5°C is ...

2024-11-18T05:43:51Z

Refusing to admit the global failure at keeping below +1.5°C is going to get people killed!

The sooner we accept this as well as almost certainly blowing past 2°C the sooner we can get on with the *urgent* business of preparing as best we can for the consequences of this failure!

#ClimateCrisis

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2024-11-18/cop29-what-does-1-5c-s-failure-mean-for-climate-negotiations

The US released an estimated 5,970 MtCO2e in 2023 (excl. LULUCF), ...

2024-11-17T12:10:16Z

The US released an estimated 5,970 MtCO2e in 2023 (excl. LULUCF), a change of -1.4 % compared to 2022.

Per capita GHG emissions were 18 tCO2e in 2023. (Highest in the world)

Cumulative CO2 emissions since 1850 were 527 GtCO2, or about 20% of global emissions to date.

Meanwhile at #COP29 “House Republicans delivered an aggressive message in support of oil, gas, and coal”

https://grist.org/politics/cop29-republicans-august-pfluger-congress-trump/

#ClimateCrisis

Facing reality. Graphic: ...

2024-11-15T08:42:40Z

Facing reality.

Graphic: https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/14/climate/climate-action-tracker-temperatures-emissions.html

Emission reduction requirements: https://www.unep.org/resources/emissions-gap-report-2021

#ClimateLiteracy #ClimateCrisis

The magnitude of the task to achieve a 2ºC pathway. Take a look ...

2024-11-13T07:00:53Z

The magnitude of the task to achieve a 2ºC pathway.

Take a look at the reduction in emissions from covid. In this dataset you are looking at a 5.7% reduction.

We need to have a reduction at this level EVERY year from now until 2030.

EVERY year.

#ClimateCrisis

this is massively problematic of course but there is a strong ...

2024-11-10T10:55:30Z

In reply to nevent1q…ekuq
_________________________

this is massively problematic of course but there is a strong case that the rest of the world will simply leave the US behind.

Eg:

https://cleantechnica.com/2024/11/06/world-moving-on-without-usa-as-it-declines/

Everyone and I mean everyone should have a plan to become more ...

2024-11-10T10:27:50Z

Everyone and I mean *everyone* should have a plan to become more resilient in the face of increasing climate chaos, driven by our inability/reluctance to stop burning fossil fuels

Here is a great Climate Resilient Toolkit

https://toolkit.climate.gov/steps-to-resilience/get-started

#Adaptation #Resilience #ClimateCrisis

Just so no one is surprised when we pass 2°C. Emissions Gap ...

2024-11-10T06:10:41Z

Just so no one is surprised when we pass 2°C.

Emissions Gap Report:

“There are NO SIGNS of accelerated implementation, and countries are not even on track to deliver on their current NDCs.”

Emission reduction requirements from now until 2030:

For a 1.5° pathway 9% per year
Fora 2°C pathway 5.5% per year

Source: https://www.unep.org/resources/emissions-gap-report-2024

#ClimateCrisis

As the US finalizes its voting today, there is a minor to ...

2024-11-05T08:38:15Z

As the US finalizes its voting today, there is a minor to moderate heat advisory in place.

In November.

To stand an outside chance of slamming the brakes on our current trajectory and the US's rather large part in this don't vote for the guy who keeps calling this a hoax.

#ClimateCrisis

I cannot overemphasise how bad this is, if this decadal warming ...

2024-11-03T05:39:46Z

I cannot overemphasise how bad this is, if this decadal warming trend sustains itself.

We will be arriving at 2°C about 15 years ahead of projections!

#ClimateCrisis

I just had a look at this. Thanks for flagging. Denialism is ...

2024-10-31T10:18:47Z

In reply to nevent1q…tcgy
_________________________

I just had a look at this. Thanks for flagging. Denialism is already killing people. I guess you get what you vote for.

"Valencia's regional government admitted that it had only ...

2024-10-31T08:36:07Z

"Valencia's regional government admitted that it had only sent out a text message warning residents of the impending catastrophe at 8:12 PM, eight hours after the first floods were reported, and 10 hours after Spain’s AEMET issued an alert highlighting “extreme danger” across the region."

Disasters like this will keep happening because we are NOT ready. Nearly 100 lives lost because the early warning system failed.

#ClimateCrisis #Valencia #FlashFloods

https://www.politico.eu/article/spain-floods-valencia-europe-climate-change-preparation/

“The average annual economic losses from weather-related ...

2024-10-30T12:19:34Z

“The average annual economic losses from weather-related extreme events increased by 23% from 2010–14 to 2019–23, to US$227 billion - a value exceeding the GDP of about 60% of the world’s economies” (Lancet Countdown 2024)

We are not prepared for this!

#Valencia today👇🏻

#ClimateCrisis

Lancet: https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(24)01822-1/fulltext
Image: https://apnews.com/article/spain-floods-valencia-weather-ef0dffabe1a106a05c239dca4dfec1ae

We have now arrived at a point where the science underpinning ...

2024-10-25T08:26:47Z

We have now arrived at a point where the science underpinning these two reports need equal *urgent* attention.

Adaptation to attempt surviving 2°C

Mitigation to attempt preventing 2.1° then 2.2° and heaven forbid 2.9°

Both actions are now critical

#ClimateCrisis #Adaptation #Mitigation

#Vancouver ~ "The season's first significant storm is ...

2024-10-20T07:15:03Z

#Vancouver ~ "The season's first significant storm is expected to dump 90-150mm of rain on Metro."

The laws of thermodynamics playing out in real-time:

“For every ºC that Earth’s atmospheric temperature rises, the amount of water vapor in the atmosphere can increase by about 7%”

https://vancouversun.com/news/bc-weather-heavy-rain-power-outages-as-atmospheric-river-hits-bc-south-coast

#ClimateCrisis

REMINDER as we are about to breach +1.5°C of heating permanently ...

2024-10-18T15:20:03Z

REMINDER as we are about to breach +1.5°C of heating permanently shortly.

IPCC:

“High risks are now assessed to occur at LOWER global warming levels”

#ClimateCrisis

NEW from The Lancet: “The survey provides evidence that climate ...

2024-10-18T13:02:11Z

NEW from The Lancet:

“The survey provides evidence that climate change is causing widespread distress among adolescents and young adults, and is affecting multiple aspects of their planning for the future”

“Feeling anxious, powerless, afraid, sad, and angry were the most frequently endorsed emotions”

We have *utterly* failed young people.

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanplh/article/PIIS2542-5196(24)00229-8/fulltext

#ClimateCrisis #ClimateStress

As physical environments continue to destabilise as we approach ...

2024-10-18T05:08:45Z

As physical environments continue to destabilise as we approach the permanent breaching of +1.5°C we need urgent conversations about #adaptation and #resilience in *many* places.

Good to see an earnest conversation about this taking place in #Asheville post Helene.

#ClimateCrisis https://www.citizen-times.com/story/news/2024/10/14/climate-change-helene-prompts-asheville-need-for-resilience/75646046007/

#ClimateCrisis

Parts of #France have been experiencing extreme precipitation and ...

2024-10-17T12:30:07Z

Parts of #France have been experiencing extreme precipitation and resulting dangerous #FlashFloods

We are *absolutely not* prepared for a world at +1.5ºC of heating, now imminent.

#ClimateCrisis

Imagine pilots ignoring all the alarms on their flight deck. What ...

2024-10-12T08:22:37Z

Imagine pilots ignoring all the alarms on their flight deck. What would call that?

Gross negligence?
Being on a suicide mission?

The instruments on earth's "flight deck" have been flashing red for decades and we are just ignoring this. A catastrophic crash imminent.

#ClimateCrisis

Earth instrument data: https://academic.oup.com/bioscience/advance-article/doi/10.1093/biosci/biae087/7808595

The remainder of #Kirk is causing some major flooding in #France ...

2024-10-10T10:38:35Z

The remainder of #Kirk is causing some major flooding in #France

#ClimateCrisis
#FlashFloods

"The average anomaly for Oct–Dec 2024 would need to drop by ...

2024-10-09T07:41:22Z

"The average anomaly for Oct–Dec 2024 would need to drop by at least 0.41°C for 2024 not to be warmer than 2023.

"A drop of this magnitude in Oct–Dec has never occurred in the ERA5 dataset, therefore, it is almost certain that 2024 will be the warmest calendar year on record."

Source: https://climate.copernicus.eu/surface-air-temperature-september-2024

#ClimateLiteracy #ClimateCrisis

As we watch what are described as “catastrophic” extreme ...

2024-10-01T04:15:09Z

As we watch what are described as “catastrophic” extreme climate events unfold it is worth revisiting this work by Luke Kemp et al.

As they say “prudent risk management requires consideration of bad-to-worst-case scenarios.”

Considering these is essential in any adaptation conversations!

“Climate Endgame: Exploring catastrophic climate change scenarios”
https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2108146119

#ClimateCrisis

Zooming out from the #Helene coverage, there is this from #Nepal ...

2024-09-29T05:25:23Z

Zooming out from the #Helene coverage, there is this from #Nepal

We are in a #ClimateEmergency

From: Steve Herman (npub1akj…7u7q)
https://journa.host/@w7voa/113218903515422567

As a result of Covid restrictions "global emissions from ...

2024-09-26T13:07:52Z

As a result of Covid restrictions "global emissions from surface transport fell by –36% or –7.5 (–5.9 to –9.6) MtCO2 d−1 by 7 April 2020 and made the largest contribution to the total emissions change."

Why can't we do this again?

Here is one way:

🚶‍♀️walk to work if you can
🚲 cycle to work if you can
🚋 use public transport more
🚗 drive less
✈️ fly less
👩🏻‍💻 meet online more
🏡 work from home more

#ClimateCrisis

Source: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/341496430_Temporary_reduction_in_daily_global_CO2_emissions_during_the_COVID-19_forced_confinement

September Eastern Europe flooding. Climate change doubled the ...

2024-09-25T07:07:27Z

September Eastern Europe flooding.

Climate change doubled the likelihood and increased the intensity of rainfall by 7% - a conservative estimate. This all at +1.3ºC of heating.

At +2ºC climate models predict even heavier 4-day rainfall events, with a further expected increase of about 5% in rainfall intensity and a further 50% increase in likelihood.

#ClimateCrisis #ClimateLiteracy

Source https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/climate-change-and-high-exposure-increased-costs-and-disruption-to-lives-and-livelihoods-from-flooding-associated-with-exceptionally-heavy-rainfall-in-central-europe/

Facing reality. If consecutive days above 2°C are possible in a ...

2024-09-24T06:30:17Z

Facing reality.

If consecutive days above 2°C are possible in a world that has heated +1.3°C then what happens when we pass +1.5°C permanently (now unavoidable) or +2°C (almost unavoidable)?

We better begin having some *serious* adaptation conversations.

Impacts:

Week of Aug 1st - https://www.instagram.com/reel/C-IoMl4v9-g/
Week of Aug 15th - https://www.instagram.com/reel/C-srm--sfVM/
Week of Aug 22nd - https://www.instagram.com/reel/C--puu9MbN6/
Week of Sep 5th - https://www.instagram.com/reel/C_iuKE8vHcl/
Week of Sep 19th - https://www.instagram.com/reel/DAG2xMeMIa4/

#ClimateCrisis

It is worth noting that the global surface anomaly is coming off ...

2024-09-19T04:33:27Z

In reply to nevent1q…0cgh
_________________________

It is worth noting that the global surface anomaly is coming off its 2023 and early 2024 highs as expected due to the developing La Niña. This is already visible in the data.

Global heating is expected to drop to ~1.4°C at the bottom of this La Niña.

Image 1: https://pulse.climate.copernicus.eu/
Image 2: http://www.columbia.edu/~mhs119/Temperature/

NEW from IRI: “Regarding temperature, strongly enhanced ...

2024-09-19T03:38:34Z

NEW from IRI: “Regarding temperature, strongly enhanced probabilities for above-normal temperature are forecasted across most land areas throughout the forecast period.” (Oct-Dec 2024 through Jan-Mar 2025)

This despite a 71% chance of La Niña emerging Sep-Nov.

https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/seasonal-climate-forecasts/

#ClimateLiteracy #ClimateCrisis

NEW United in Science 2024 report. How far are we off track to ...

2024-09-18T08:46:38Z

NEW United in Science 2024 report.

How far are we off track to stay below 2ºC?

"It is estimated that the full implementation of unconditional and conditional NDCs would reduce global emissions in 2030 by 2% and 9%, respectively, compared with current policy projections. "However, to reach levels consistent with limiting global warming to below 2 °C and 1.5 °C, global GHG emissions in 2030 must be reduced by 28% and 42%, respectively (UNEP, 2023a)."

#ClimateCrisis

1/

“People can no longer cope” “South Sudan floods: the first ...

2024-09-16T04:27:32Z

“People can no longer cope”

“South Sudan floods: the first example of a mass population permanently displaced by climate change?” https://theconversation.com/south-sudan-floods-the-first-example-of-a-mass-population-permanently-displaced-by-climate-change-238461

This at current heating levels (+1.3°C)

+1.5°C imminent

We are NOT prepared for mass climate migration

#ClimateCrisis

IPCC 2022: "In the near-term, [as we continue to heat] risks ...

2024-09-15T09:24:07Z

IPCC 2022: "In the near-term, [as we continue to heat] risks are highest where species and people exist close to their upper thermal limits, along coastlines, in close association with ice or seasonal rivers (high confidence)."

An example of the above mentioned risks, Głuchołazy, #Poland, August 15, 2024

Picture credit: https://radio.opole.pl/

#ClimateCrisis #FlashFloods

There is a lot of talk that things are going to be ok. Here is ...

2024-09-13T05:55:06Z

There is a lot of talk that things are going to be ok.

Here is the honest truth. We did not slam on the brakes to avoid passing 1.5°C

We have NOT slammed on the brakes in the 2°C car. Brakes = 5.3% emissions reduction in 2024 and EVERY year thereafter until 2030.

Emissions are projected to GROW in 2024.

We must now prepare our communities for the impacts of this negligence. Here is probably the most important document of our time:

https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/

#ClimateCrisis #ClimateLiteracy

In January 2024, the projected date for us to cross +1.5ºC ...

2024-09-10T13:41:09Z

In January 2024, the projected date for us to cross +1.5ºC permanently in the ERA5 dataset was September 2033.

8 months later this is where we are now.

The speeding freight train is coming straight at us. We need to prepare for this eventuality in earnest!

Source: https://cds.climate.copernicus.eu/cdsapp#!/software/app-c3s-global-temperature-trend-monitor?tab=app

#ClimateCrisis

Reality check: "In the best case, we calculate that rapid ...

2024-09-10T11:08:12Z

Reality check:

"In the best case, we calculate that rapid changes will affect 1.5 billion people. The only way to deal with this is to prepare for a situation with a much higher likelihood of unprecedented extreme events, already in the next one to two decades."

This is the reality of getting close to or crossing +2ºC

https://phys.org/news/2024-09-extreme-weather-rapidly-decades.html

#ClimateCrisis #ClimateLiteracy #Adaptation

“In very warm areas, the wet bulb temperature is a good measure ...

2024-09-08T05:41:38Z

“In very warm areas, the wet bulb temperature is a good measure of extreme heat stress. In India, prior to 1990 there was little to no dark blue on this map, now nearly 15% of India is covered by dark blue.”— Brian Brettschneider

This at +1.3°C of long-term heating and a current 12-month running mean of +1.64°C

Now see the IPCC heat-humidity stress projection as we continue to heat.

#ClimateCrisis #Heatwaves #ClimateLiteracy #WetBulb

We use #EnROADS in all our #ClimateLiteracy workshops. For ...

2024-09-05T10:30:01Z

We use #EnROADS in all our #ClimateLiteracy workshops.

For example, using the simulator we can answer the question: Will electric cars keep enough oil in the ground?

Take a look at the answer here:

https://www.climateinteractive.org/blog/analyzing-climate-silver-bullets-with-system-dynamics/

#ClimateCrisis

“The sooner we stop expecting Australia’s weather to be ...

2024-09-02T06:18:39Z

“The sooner we stop expecting Australia’s weather to be “normal”, the sooner we can prepare for life in a wild climate.”

“We must open our minds to this if we want to be prepared.”

Background long-term heating +1.3°C
1.5°C imminent

#Adaptation conversations are becoming urgent in *many* places!

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/article/2024/sep/02/australia-august-weather-records-heat-wind-storm-bom-forecast/

#ClimateCrisis #Australia

We are in no way shape or form prepared for what is to come. To ...

2024-09-01T08:04:22Z

We are in no way shape or form prepared for what is to come.

To avoid power blackouts "some machinery and auto parts makers have halted operations and some shopping centers and large supermarkets in Chengdu are shutting off air conditioning during the peak hours of 11 a.m. to 3 p.m."

https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Environment/Climate-Change/Extreme-heat-in-China-triggers-power-warnings-factory-stoppages/

#ClimateCrisis #China #Heatwaves

ICYMI (The Berkeley Earth dataset is one of the 6 datasets the ...

2024-08-30T18:38:20Z

ICYMI

(The Berkeley Earth dataset is one of the 6 datasets the WMO uses to determine each years mean heating above the 1850-1900 average)

#ClimateCrisis #ClimateLiteracy

(Source: https://bsky.app/profile/rarohde.bsky.social/post/3l2xcvl3dzj2f)

There are vast numbers of people who think of climate change as a ...

2024-08-26T09:47:19Z

There are vast numbers of people who think of climate change as a "2100 problem" and then add "I won't be here to see it."

However, the next 20 years, as we crash through +1.5ºC (imminent) and then approach +2ºC is going to bring some serious challenges to billions of people.

Median age per country in 2050
https://database.earth/population/median-age/2050

#ClimateCrisis #ClimateCrisis

Here is John Sterman on the research: 2/ ...

2024-08-25T06:50:09Z

In reply to nevent1q…ns6n
_________________________

Here is John Sterman on the research:

2/

NEW: First comprehensive global evaluation of 1,500 climate ...

2024-08-25T06:48:46Z

NEW: First comprehensive global evaluation of 1,500 climate policy measures from 41 countries across six continents.

“Only 63 cases of successful climate policies, leading to average emission reductions of 19 percent, were identified. The key characteristic of these successful cases is the inclusion of tax and price incentives in well-designed policy mixes.”

https://www.pik-potsdam.de/en/news/latest-news/what-works-groundbreaking-evaluation-of-climate-policy-measures-over-two-decades

#ClimateCrisis

1/

Yeah everything is NOT fine. #Mediterranean #ClimateCrisis ...

2024-08-23T07:04:55Z

Yeah everything is NOT fine.

#Mediterranean
#ClimateCrisis

Here is another example of "business as usual" as we ...

2024-08-21T08:50:35Z

Here is another example of "business as usual" as we hurtle towards catastrophe.

The 2024 requirement - and *every year* thereafter until 2030 - for an attempted 2ºC pathway, was an emissions reduction of 5.3%. The projection for 2024 is a 0.6% *increase* in emissions.

This behaviour *does not* match the above requirement. It's just one example of thousands.

We are firmly on a highway to hell.

#ClimateCrisis

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/08/20/starbucks-new-ceo-brian-niccol-will-supercommute-to-seattle-instead-of-relocating.html

“More people [in the US] believe that warming will affect ...

2024-08-20T11:49:19Z

“More people [in the US] believe that warming will affect future generations more than it will affect them personally.”—RFF

Meanwhile in June 2024: “More than 70 million Americans - about one in five of the population - are living under heat alerts as temperatures soar.”

This at +1.3°C of warming!

+1.5°C in the next 5 years
+2°C in the next 20 years

#ClimateCrisis

#France: Car parks with space for 80 cars or more are now ...

2024-08-18T07:10:03Z

#France:

Car parks with space for 80 cars or more are now required by law to be covered with solar panels.

- Parks between 80-400 spaces have 5 years to comply
- Parks with spaces of 400+ have 3 years to comply

This will result in about 11 gigawatts of power.

This should be required everywhere!

#ClimateCrisis #Mitigation #Electrification

there are people in all countries - including developing - that ...

2024-08-17T12:18:28Z

In reply to nevent1q…vypt
_________________________

there are people in all countries - including developing - that need to dial back their energy usage so that everyone can enjoy a decent living standard, as illustrated here.

It is slowly dawning on more and more people that the projections ...

2024-08-17T11:30:01Z

It is slowly dawning on more and more people that the projections that global GDP is going to take a major hit as we continue to heat is accurate.

Billions of $'s, £'s and €'s are *already* needing to be spent on infrastructure repair and we are "only" at +1.3ºC of heating.

What happens at +1.5ºC and then 2ºC?

We know the answer.

#ClimateCrisis

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/article/2024/aug/15/cost-of-fighting-flooding-is-soaking-up-english-councils-cash-ministers-warned

Reality check - mid 2024 What are the emission reduction ...

2024-08-17T07:50:04Z

Reality check - mid 2024

What are the emission reduction requirements for 2025, now that we have failed at the 2024 requirement?

Asking for the children.

#ClimateCrisis

to be fair government does play a role, as is illustrated here in ...

2024-08-12T05:59:34Z

In reply to nevent1q…6gkq
_________________________

to be fair government does play a role, as is illustrated here in the latest IPCC Synthesis Report.

However, when those actions fail relocation is the only option.

In Florida they may have the challenge that “government” doesn’t think this is real 🤷🏻

Its getting real even at 1.3ºC of heating. What happens at ...

2024-08-11T13:08:45Z

Its getting real even at 1.3ºC of heating. What happens at 1.5ºC, which is now imminent?

"The only path forward for homeowners in markets that will be hit hardest by an exorbitant rise in home insurance premiums is to sell and move — before their neighbors do"

https://www.businessinsider.com/real-estate-housing-market-outlook-climate-change-flood-insurance-burt-2024-8

#ClimateCrisis

Florida is definitely going to be going through some things. ...

2024-08-08T13:41:32Z

Florida is definitely going to be going through some things.

Current instrument readings:
1.3ºC latest 5-year average above preindustrial
1.64ºC latest 12-month running mean above preindustrial

1.5ºC imminent (late 2020s early 2030s)

https://www.newsweek.com/florida-biggest-insurer-increase-rates-1935388

#Florida #Insurance #ClimateCrisis #ClimateLiteracy

“The ‘emergence’ of climate impacts consistently occurs ...

2024-08-05T05:45:03Z

“The ‘emergence’ of climate impacts consistently occurs earlier in the new projections—before 2040 for several main producing regions. These results suggest that major breadbasket regions will face distinct anthropogenic climatic risks sooner than previously anticipated.”

https://www.nature.com/articles/s43016-021-00400-y

#ClimateCrisis

As we continue to heat, let us never underestimate the far ...

2024-07-31T06:40:23Z

As we continue to heat, let us never underestimate the far reaching impacts of #heatwaves

Image credit: https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/wp-content/uploads/India_Pak-Heatwave-scientific-report.pdf

#ClimateCrisis #ClimateRisk