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House Republicans Subpoena New Jersey Over 6,600 Noncitizen Voter ...

2026-10-27T17:00:00Z

House Republicans Subpoena New Jersey Over 6,600 Noncitizen Voter Registrations

House Republicans Subpoena New Jersey Over 6,600 Noncitizen Voter Registrations

https://headlineusa.com/house-republicans-subpoena-new-jersey-over-6600-noncitizen-voter-registrations/,House Republicans have subpoenaed New Jersey's top election official, demanding to know how roughly 6,600 noncitizens ended up registered to vote. According to a House Judiciary Committeehttps://judiciary.house.gov/media/press-releases/house-republicans-subpoena-new-jersey-secretary-state-information-state published last Wednesday, four Republican committee leadershttps://judiciary.house.gov/sites/evo-subsites/republicans-judiciary.house.gov/files/evo-media-document/2026-10-21-jdj-bs-ll-jvd-to-nj-dept-of-state-emehelu-re-subpoena.pdf Acting Secretary of State Shirley Emehelu after her department failed to turn over adequate records.

Rep. Jim Jordan (R-Ohio), who chairs the House Judiciary Committee, led the effort alongside House Administration Committee Chairman Bryan Steil of Wisconsin. Rep. Jeff Van Drew (R-N.J.), who chairs the Judiciary Subcommittee on Oversight, and Rep. Laurel Lee (R-Fla.), who heads the Administration Subcommittee on Elections, also signed on.The investigation centers on New Jersey's registration of about 6,600 noncitizens to vote between June 2023 and June 2024. The Committees argue these improper registrations raise serious questions about whether New Jersey follows federal law requiring accurate voter rolls. They also contend that the state's failure to find and remove noncitizens threatens the civil liberties of American voters and weakens their ability to choose their representatives.The lawmakers firsthttps://judiciary.house.gov/sites/evo-subsites/republicans-judiciary.house.gov/files/evo-media-document/2026-08-03-jdj-bs-ll-jvd-to-caldwell-nj-dept-of-state-re-noncitizen-voting.pdf documents on August 3, 2026, seeking information about the Department of State's compliance with federal voting laws. The Department has since produced only 12 documents. None of them explain how officials discovered the alleged software error that registered the noncitizens or why those registrants stayed on the rolls until 2026. The Committees had specifically asked about both issues, and those 2 questions sit at the heart of the inquiry.The Committees say the records offered no real insight into how the problem came to light or why New Jersey waited until 2026 to begin fixing it. Lawmakers made clear they tried to cooperate with state officials before resorting to compulsory process. They note they spent 79 days trying to accommodate the Department, yet its response still falls short. That failure, they argue, has hampered their oversight work and stalled their consideration of legislative reforms.The subpoena marks a sharp escalation in a dispute that began as a routine oversight request. Emehelu now faces a legal demand to hand over the records lawmakers have sought since August. Readers can review the full subpoenahttps://judiciary.house.gov/sites/evo-subsites/republicans-judiciary.house.gov/files/evo-media-document/2026-10-21-jdj-bs-ll-jvd-to-nj-dept-of-state-emehelu-re-subpoena.pdf sent to the Acting Secretary of State.

https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden
Tue, 10/27/2026 - 13:00

https://www.zerohedge.com/political/house-republicans-subpoena-new-jersey-over-6600-noncitizen-voter-registrations

Trump Answers Obama's "Cheesecake Factory" White ...

2026-10-27T16:45:00Z

Trump Answers Obama's "Cheesecake Factory" White House Jab: "That Just Shows Why You Were A Lousy President"

Trump Answers Obama's "Cheesecake Factory" White House Jab: "That Just Shows Why You Were A Lousy President"

President Trump on Monday answered Barack Obama's weekend jab that the renovated White House looks like a Cheesecake Factory, telling reporters at Joint Base Andrews before a campaign trip to Mississippi: "For you to say it's a Cheesecake Factory - that just shows why you were a lousy president."https://cms.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/image_80%281272%29.jpgAt a campaign stop for Democrats on Saturday, Obama told supporters Trump "should be on HGTV" given his focus on construction. "He's got the White House looking like Saddam Hussein opened a Cheesecake Factory," he added, per the Post.Trump called Obama "not a smart guy" and said "only a stupid person would run the country like that." He claimed Obama let the White House fall into disrepair over his eight years: "He doesn't notice dirt and filth that hadn't been cleaned, where the walls hadn't been cleaned for years. He doesn't notice areas that haven't been painted." Raw Story https://www.rawstory.com/trump-obama-cheesecake-factory/ he spent more than three minutes defending the work.The work includes tearing down the East Wing to build a ballroom, repainting the North Portico columns, paving over the Rose Garden and adding gold wall fixtures to the Oval Office, the Post notes. "I've taken care of the White House. I fixed it with the finest artisans in the world," Trump said, adding that the building "has to be maintained properly."Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent took the joke to lunch. He visited a Cheesecake Factory in Washington on Monday and turned the insult back on Obama's presidential library, which he said looks like "Darth Vader's tomb," and invited "the Martha's Vineyard set" to give the chain a try.🚨Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on President Obama mocking the Cheesecake Factory:

“This is the man who built the museum and it looks like Darth Vader’s tomb.”

Bessent also told https://x.com/FoxBusiness?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw'; https://x.com/FBNNicoleMac?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw he frequents the Cheesecake Factory and always orders the French dip… https://t.co/i0Fvr0KEgs— Chase Williams (@ChaseWilliams_) https://x.com/ChaseWilliams_/status/2114782079170879951?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
The library on Chicago's South Side has taken its own ribbing. The towering, disk-shaped concrete-and-stone building has been mocked as the "Obamalisk" and likened to the Death Star. The Obamas own a home on Martha's Vineyard, which has no Cheesecake Factory outlet.

https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden
Tue, 10/27/2026 - 12:45

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/trump-answers-obamas-cheesecake-factory-white-house-jab-just-shows-why-you-were-lousy

Iran War Pushes Trump's Average Gasoline Prices Above ...

2026-10-27T16:15:00Z

Iran War Pushes Trump's Average Gasoline Prices Above Biden's

Iran War Pushes Trump's Average Gasoline Prices Above Biden's

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Iran-War-Pushes-Trumps-Average-Gasoline-Prices-Above-Bidens.html,The average price Americans have paid for gasoline during President Donald Trump's second term has now surpassed the average recorded during Joe Biden's presidency, marking a politically significant milestone just days before the November 3 midterm elections.https://cms.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/2026-10-26_ntu7qbbg3i_0.jpgAccording to https://www.investing.com/news/commodities-news/average-price-of-gasoline-during-trumps-term-now-exceeds-bidens-as-midterms-loom-4973399, regular gasoline has averaged $3.472 per gallon since Trump returned to office in January 2025, compared with $3.471 during Biden's four-year presidency.https://cms.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/2026-10-27_06-38-44_1793108411504.pngThe difference is marginal, but it represents a striking reversal for a president who campaigned on promises to bring gasoline prices below $2 per gallon.As of Monday, October 26, https://gasprices.aaa.com/ a national average of approximately $4.29 per gallon, compared with just $3.05 a year earlier.The increase has been driven largely by the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran, which began in February and has severely disrupted global crude oil shipments, refining operations and fuel exports from the Middle East.Gasoline prices have risen roughly 43% since the conflict began, despite the United States remaining the world's largest oil producer.Meanwhile, diesel prices have climbed even more sharply. AAA data show diesel averaging approximately $6.35 per gallon, after reaching an all-time high of $6.53 in September.https://cms.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/2026-10-27_06-41-18_1793108485741.pngAs previously https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Oil-Above-100-Pushes-US-Fuel-Prices-to-New-Records.html, shortages of refined products and the disruption of Middle Eastern energy supplies have placed extraordinary pressure on global fuel markets.And significant relief before the midterms appears unlikely.In his https://gaspriceguy.substack.com/p/gas-prices-hold-at-4-heading-into, Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, reported that gasoline prices averaged $4.24 per gallon, down 22 cents from a month earlier but $1.24 higher than a year ago.De Haan expects gasoline to remain above $4 per gallon and diesel above $6 through Election Day, despite government efforts to reduce prices.While motorists have seen modest relief from September's highs, continued uncertainty surrounding the Strait of Hormuz and limited global refining capacity are keeping fuel markets under pressure.The Trump administration has pursued several measures to ease the crisis, including efforts to increase domestic refining and secure additional diesel supplies.However, industry executives have warned that restarting idle refineries or expanding processing capacity cannot provide immediate relief.The latest gasoline milestone adds another challenge for the White House as Americans prepare to vote, with elevated fuel costs continuing to weigh on household budgets and broader inflation concerns.

https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden
Tue, 10/27/2026 - 12:15

https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/iran-war-pushes-trumps-average-gasoline-prices-above-bidens

Comey Charged A Third Time, Over An Alleged 2016 Leak Of Defense ...

2026-10-27T16:00:00Z

Comey Charged A Third Time, Over An Alleged 2016 Leak Of Defense Information To A Reporter

Comey Charged A Third Time, Over An Alleged 2016 Leak Of Defense Information To A Reporter

Former FBI Director James Comey has been charged by federal prosecutors with unlawfully passing national defense information to a reporter in 2016, the Justice Department's third attempt to bring a case against him in a little over a year.BREAKING: Former FBI Director James Comey charged with leaking national defense information to a reporter in 2016 https://t.co/uKgb4qR218— BNO News (@BNONews) https://x.com/BNONews/status/2114829411090657334?ref_src=twsrc%5EtfwThe https://storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.uscourts.dcd.297297/gov.uscourts.dcd.297297.1.0.pdf, unsealed Monday in federal court in Washington, alleges that Comey, while FBI director, directed another person, through co-conspirators, to disclose national defense information to a reporter at a national news publication on Oct. 5, 2016. His defense describes it as classified information given to the New York Times. He faces two counts: unlawfully transmitting national defense information to an unauthorized person, and conspiracy to commit that offense.According to the https://dailycaller.com/2026/10/26/james-comey-indicted-over-alleged-national-security-leak-to-press/, a filing by Special Assistant U.S. Attorney Dustin Farahnak says the investigation "uncovered evidence that Mr. Comey directed staff to speak to" a Times reporter about accuracy concerns tied to a Reuters article.Prosecutors first filed the case under seal on Oct. 5, 2026, exactly ten years after the alleged leak, and the offense carries a 10-year statute of limitations. Judge Trevor McFadden ordered it unsealed at Comey's request, and prosecutors did not oppose. It is a criminal information, which prosecutors file themselves, and not a grand jury indictment, though some outlets call it one. Comey has not entered a plea.Comey has moved to dismiss, arguing the charges are "time barred" because two other U.S. attorneys previously declined to prosecute and the statute required an indictment. Prosecutors answered that he is "mistaken" about their authority to bring charges by information.His lawyer, Patrick Fitzgerald, said: "For the third time in a little more than one year, the Department of Justice has attempted to charge Mr. Comey with a federal crime." He added that the filing "purports to charge Mr. Comey with crimes that he did not commit."Comey posted a video statement on Instagram, saying: "It would almost be funny if it weren't such an appalling abuse of the Department of Justice." In a written statement he said, "Nothing's changed with me. I'm still innocent."https://www.instagram.com/reel/De-NDYnvKlD/The earlier cases have not gone the government's way so far. The 2025 case, charging a false statement to Congress and obstruction, was dismissed after a judge found prosecutor Lindsey Halligan was unlawfully appointed, and the government's appeal is pending. A second case, filed in April in North Carolina over a seashell photo reading "86 47," has an arraignment delayed until at least early next year. ZH covered https://www.zerohedge.com/political/acting-ag-blanche-denies-trump-directed-james-comey-prosecution that Trump directed that prosecution and the https://www.zerohedge.com/political/comeys-86-47-post-could-objectively-be-read-threat-against-trump-doj-argues over the post. These are allegations in a charging document, and Comey has not been tried.

https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden
Tue, 10/27/2026 - 12:00

https://www.zerohedge.com/political/comey-charged-third-time-over-alleged-2016-leak-defense-information-reporter

NANO Nuclear Taps The Korean Builder That Already Bet $30 Million ...

2026-10-27T15:30:00Z

NANO Nuclear Taps The Korean Builder That Already Bet $30 Million On Its Reactor

NANO Nuclear Taps The Korean Builder That Already Bet $30 Million On Its Reactor

A day after LIS Technologies, the laser enrichment partner of NANO Nuclear (NNE), https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/nanos-laser-partner-finally-files-ipo-lis-technologies-wants-17-million-fix-americas for a Nasdaq IPO, NANO https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/10/27/3388916/0/en/nano-nuclear-energy-and-hyundai-engineering-sign-memorandum-of-understanding-to-advance-kronos-mmr-project-execution-and-future-fleet-deployment.html a memorandum of understanding with South Korea's Hyundai Engineering on its first KRONOS microreactor at the University of Illinois.$NNE NANO Nuclear Energy and Hyundai Engineering Sign Memorandum of Understanding to Advance KRONOS MMR™ Project Execution and Future Fleet Deployment - The collaboration also builds on more than a decade of HEC familiarity with KRONOS MMR https://t.co/c65zb98RXA— NANO Nuclear Energy (NASDAQ: NNE) (@nano_nuclear) https://x.com/nano_nuclear/status/2115063842736918852?ref_src=twsrc%5EtfwAt first glance, it looks like the MOUs NANO has been signing all year, including a January deal with another Korean company, DS Dansuk, that https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/nano-nuclear-enters-asian-market as NANO's entry into Asia.This latest update from NANO is different from their previous announcements this year in two ways:First, the direction. DS Dansuk was about taking KRONOS to Korean factories. The https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/nano-nuclear-sees-potential-power-plant-and-dual-listing-abu-dhabi and https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/nano-nuclear-signs-strategic-mou-supermicro-powering-ai-data-centers MOUs and the https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/modular-reactor-tide-rising-nano-nuclear-study-siting-multiple-mmrs-generate-1gw-energy were about finding customers.This latest one points Hyundai Engineering at the Illinois unit itself, whose construction permit application the NRC https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/nano-nuclears-reactor-construction-permit-accepted-review for review in May. The initial focus is construction planning, but could expand dramatically as time goes on."NANO Nuclear is deliberately assembling the industrial capabilities required to move advanced nuclear technology from design into repeatable deployment.” said Jay Yu, Founder and Chairman of NANO Nuclear Energy. “Our objective is not simply to develop an advanced microreactor; it is to build the broader platform around it. This includes engineering, manufacturing, fuel, transportation, project execution and the necessary supply chain that can support real projects at scale.Second, Hyundai Engineering already knows this reactor. It started working with the design's original developer, Ultra Safe Nuclear (USNC), in 2012, and in early 2022 it https://www.kedglobal.com/carbon-neutrality/newsView/ked202208280002 into USNC for exclusive rights to build its microreactors. That year it said the first unit would be running at Canada's Chalk River Laboratories by the end of 2026.Instead, USNC went bankrupt, and NANO picked up the design for $8.5 million in early 2025, less than a third of what Hyundai had put in.The LIS angleThat platform now spans a nuclear https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/nano-nuclear-energy-turns-revenue-generating-overnight-strategic-acquisition, a pending https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/nano-nuclear-buys-one-thing-you-cant-speed-fuel-cycle-license in New Mexico and a stake in LIS, whose Oak Ridge test loop https://www.zerohedge.com/technology/gas-station-gets-its-gas-nanos-laser-enrichment-partner-takes-delivery-its-first-uranium of its first uranium this month.LIS wants about $17 million, selling roughly 2.83 million shares at $5 to $7 under the ticker "LIS." NANO bought 2,666,667 LIS shares for $2 million in 2024, a stake worth about $16 million at the midpoint.As we put it yesterday, the gas station finally has a price tag, even if it still has no cars. Now NANO is lining up somebody who might build the first one.

https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden
Tue, 10/27/2026 - 11:30

https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/nano-nuclear-taps-korean-builder-already-bet-30-million-its-reactor

Houthis Claim 'Direct Hit' On Saudi Defense Ministry HQ ...

2026-10-27T15:15:00Z

Houthis Claim 'Direct Hit' On Saudi Defense Ministry HQ & Ras Tanura Refinery

Houthis Claim 'Direct Hit' On Saudi Defense Ministry HQ & Ras Tanura Refinery

The Houthis are claiming some further significant attacks on Saudi military and energy sites, announcing Tuesday a direct hit on the kingdom's defense ministry HQ in Riyadh.The Iran-aligned group said the "hit was direct" - also amid new launches against Saudi Arabia's biggest oil refinery, Ras Tanura, located to the west of the Strait of Hormuz.

"Our armed forces targeted the Ministry of Defense in the enemy Saudi capital, Riyadh, with a ballistic missile and the hit was direct," announced Houthi military spokesman Yahya Saree. The Saudi military has said it has intercepted a pair of missiles over the kingdom, with regional media citing explosions hears in central Riyadh. There are reports of significant missile debris falling over Riyadh.Residents in Riyadh as well as near Ras Tanura reported getting mobile alerts of an inbound attack. Bloomberg is so far suggesting damage to the refinery is could be https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/direct-hit-houthis-claim-targeted-saudi-ministry-with-ballistic-missile-12244247:Maritime security agency Vanguard reported a fire in the Ras Tanura area following an attack early on Tuesday. Bloomberg separately cited a person familiar with the matter as saying a fire near the terminal had been contained.“The fire has reportedly been contained, while the extent of damage and any impact on oil-loading operations remain unclear at current,” Vanguard said.Ras Tanura combines a refinery capable of processing 550,000 barrels a day with an oil export terminal. It and Yanbu, on the Red Sea, handle nearly all Saudi oil exports.Latest claimed Houthi attack locations inside https://x.com/MenchOsint/status/2115089392763130231:1) Ras Tanura Oil Refinery2) Ministry of Defense, Riyadh3) Saudi mobilizations in Aden4) Abha Airport5) Two military cargo aircraft at: Najran Airport, Khamis Mushait Air Basehttps://cms.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/HVpOkWHXgAAlIKo_39ef4673-61fc-4d9f-9fe2-396649909286.jpgSaudi authorities have yet to confirm these fresh attacks, and there's been no damage assessment issued at this early phase. The Saudis are typically very slow to confirm attacks out of Yemen.The Houthis have said they also on Tuesday targeted two military transport jets - at Najran Airport, and an airbase in Khamis Mushait.

https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden
Tue, 10/27/2026 - 11:15

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/houthis-claim-direct-hit-saudi-defense-ministry-hq-ras-tanura-oil-refinery

Israel Election: Early Turnout Hits 45-Year High As 'Bibi ...

2026-10-27T14:45:00Z

Israel Election: Early Turnout Hits 45-Year High As 'Bibi Fatigue' Threatens Netanyahu's Grip

Israel Election: Early Turnout Hits 45-Year High As 'Bibi Fatigue' Threatens Netanyahu's Grip

Shin Bet chief David Zini has https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog-october-27-2026/ as Israelis head to the polls in record numbers on Tuesday, "Voter turnout is high, and we can confidently tell the citizens of Israel that the elections are being monitored and conducted in a proper and inspiring manner."Today is Israel's first national legislative election since the Oct.7, 2023 Hamas-led attack which unleashed years of war, particularly focused in the Gaza Strip. The Lebanon conflict is also still smoldering, and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu - whose political fate is being determined in the vote - is threatening renewed war on Iran."The elections for the 26th Knesset began on Tuesday morning, with 7,331,981 voters eligible to participate. 12,018 polling stations will be set up across the country, where voters can choose between 36 lists running to fill the 120 seats in Israel's legislature," Israel National News Arutz Sheva https://www.israelnationalnews.com/news/435200.Polls opened at 7am and will close at 10pm (4pm US eastern).Already the election is being widely described as having incredibly high voter turnout, which is being seen as not boding well for Netanyahu and his Likud party, suggesting "Bibi fatigue" - which is likely to result in more votes for parties either further to the right or to the left.The Times of Israel is a noon update https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog-october-27-2026/:Voter turnout stood at 31.5% as of noon, according to the Central Elections Committee, up from 28.4% at the same time in the 2022 election.It is the highest turnout at this hour since 1973, in the first election held after the Yom Kippur War.https://cms.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/HVoi0XVWIAAl_Iu_31c10466-3bc0-4f60-8156-4d7bcf2c3c72.jpg77-year old "Bibi" has led Israel for nearly 19 of the past 30 years, and he's constantly emphasized security, in many ways becoming a kind of permanent wartime prime minister. He's overseen the decimation of Gaza in the wake of the Oct.7 attack, and wars in Lebanon, Syria, and occasional strikes on Yemen.The Iran war remains the biggest conflict he's overseen, which has seen ballistic missiles and drones rain down on Israeli cities and bases as part of previous Iranian retaliation waves. His opponents have charged him with seeking to restart the war under false pretenses in order to extend his power.On election day, Times of Israel https://www.timesofisrael.com/israel-goes-to-the-polls-a-guide-to-the-election-and-the-battle-to-form-a-government/ that "Final polls suggest a tight race between Netanyahu’s bloc of right-wing and ultra-Orthodox parties and the opposition, led by Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar. While the opposition appears to have more potential paths to a parliamentary majority, deep divisions among its leaders, particularly over cooperation with Arab parties, could prevent them from translating an electoral advantage into a governing coalition."As a reminder, voters elect a legislature rather than directly choosing their prime minister - based on a proportional representation system.

Also, "Unlike most other democracies, Israel has no geographic electoral districts. The entire country acts as a single constituency, meaning voters in Tel Aviv, Jerusalem and Haifa all choose from the same party lists, rather than electing individual lawmakers to represent their local areas," TOI continues.Like in 2019, there's always the possibly that attempts by party heads to form a government fail, resulting in a parliamentary dissolution, and another election called. By 2022 there was no less than a fifth election after the collapse of the Bennett-Lapid government."Go vote!" Netanyahu urged Israelis in Hebrew as he and his wife Sara case their ballots at a polling station in Jerusalem.

But also, Netanyahu has warned in a new video to his supporters that "they are trying to steal the election from us," in reference to three Ra’am operatives recently arrested on suspicion of bribing voters. Ra'am is a religious Arab Muslim party."It’s serious," he says. "It’s criminal. They will reach every single person. You have been warned."Meanwhile, oops...Mr. Ambassador, the Arabs who vote are Israelis...— Barak Ravid (@BarakRavid) https://x.com/BarakRavid/status/2115042784575128025?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw

https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden
Tue, 10/27/2026 - 10:45

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/israel-election-early-turnout-hits-45-year-high-bibi-fatigue-threatens-netanyahus-grip

Could A Democratic Midterm Win Crash Markets? Could A Democratic ...

2026-10-27T14:30:00Z

Could A Democratic Midterm Win Crash Markets?

Could A Democratic Midterm Win Crash Markets?

Submitted by https://quoththeraven.substack.com/p/could-democrats-crash-this-marketThe Brazilian selloff over the last 36 hours is a reminder that political outcomes can become catalysts for violent market repricing.With the midterm elections just days away, I think investors should consider what a Democratic victory could mean for a stock market already showing signs of exhaustion.I’ve spent months arguing that extraordinary concentration in technology stocks, speculative excess surrounding artificial intelligence, and uncomfortable valuations have created conditions for a significant correction. Others whom I respect are https://quoththeraven.substack.com/p/the-economics-are-abysmal-harris.The election doesn’t change those underlying problems, but it could introduce additional catalysts for investors to reconsider the assumptions embedded in their portfolios, https://quoththeraven.substack.com/p/6-market-shocks-i-predict-if-democrats?utm_source=publication-search but want to supplement now, closer to election day.https://cms.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-10-27%20at%2007.56.48.jpgIn my opinion, one of the most underappreciated reasons American financial markets have performed so well over the last two years is that, for all intents and purposes, the United States has been operating with extraordinarily little regulatory resistance.Regulations haven’t literally disappeared, but Washington’s prevailing philosophy has been unmistakable: loosen restrictions, encourage capital formation, and give businesses as much room to operate as possible. From cryptocurrency and private credit to energy, banking, and technology, the regulatory winds have largely blown in one direction.I believe this has been an enormous tailwind for equities, even helping investors look past everything from the Iran conflict and geopolitical instability to tariffs, trade uncertainty, and increasingly stretched valuations.And I think investors would be making a mistake to underestimate what happens if that changes. A Democratic midterm victory, even if it delivers only the House, could represent a tectonic shift in the political environment that has helped propel markets higher. Committee chairmanships and subpoena power would change hands, opening the door to investigations into cryptocurrency exchanges, private credit markets, bank deregulation, corporate conflicts of interest, government contracts, and the AI investment boom.The Financial Services, Judiciary, and Oversight Committees could haul executives before Congress, demand internal communications, scrutinize mergers and antitrust practices, and investigate everything from opaque private-market valuations (https://quoththeraven.substack.com/p/from-par-to-pennies?utm_source=publication-search) to AI-related https://quoththeraven.substack.com/p/its-official-the-ai-emperor-has-no?utm_source=publication-search.https://cms.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-10-27%20at%2007.57.17.jpgDemocrats could also use spending negotiations and congressional hearings to challenge the administration’s deregulatory agenda and pressure the SEC, FTC, DOJ, and banking regulators to justify their enforcement decisions. None of this would require Democrats to control the Senate or White House, and none of it would necessarily require passing a single new law.If you add the Senate into the equation and Democrats control all of Congress, the implications become even more significant. The administration could face a coordinated legislative blockade, with Democrats controlling spending negotiations, committee investigations, and the ability to stall tax and deregulatory initiatives.Even with presidential veto power limiting new legislation, Washington could shift from a source of regulatory accommodation to persistent political uncertainty, potentially forcing markets to reprice companies that have benefited most from the current environment.Congressional investigations can create legal expenses, reputational damage, regulatory referrals, and uncertainty about future profitability, even without new legislation. Industries enjoying premium valuations partly because of favorable regulatory treatment, permissive merger approvals, limited enforcement, or government support could suddenly face an entirely different political calculus.A technology company trading at 50x earnings doesn’t need its business to collapse to experience significant multiple compression; investors merely need to reassess the assumptions supporting that valuation.85% OFF FOREVER IF YOU SUBSCRIBE TODAY: I am again offering an 85% discount to anyone that wants to become a Fringe Finance annual subscriber today. It’s a discount you can keep and stays applied for as long as you wish to remain a subscriber: https://quoththeraven.substack.com/subscribe?coupon=ffb31980&utm_content=213689718To be clear, a Democratic House couldn’t unilaterally impose sweeping regulations, but it could increase oversight, obstruct the administration’s agenda, and create uncertainty for industries accustomed to Washington’s accommodation. If Democrats also captured the Senate, they could further constrain the administration through legislative gridlock, spending negotiations, and control over confirmations.And if they win the White House in 2028, the implications for corporate taxation, antitrust enforcement, financial regulation, and government spending could become massive. Markets don’t have to wait for regulations to change before repricing the possibility that they will.Should Democrats win in 2028, we’re no longer talking about hearings and political theater, but potentially wholesale changes in regulatory philosophy, agency leadership, enforcement priorities, energy policy, and financial oversight. In my opinion, that would represent a massive sea change from the environment investors have grown accustomed to under Trump.Whether one agrees with deregulation politically is beside the point. Markets have benefited from expectations of a relatively permissive regulatory regime, and investors shouldn’t assume those conditions will last indefinitely.I wrote about this possibility several months ago, https://quoththeraven.substack.com/p/6-market-shocks-i-predict-if-democrats?utm_source=publication-search if Democrats regained congressional power. Today I reviewed and supplmented these 6 areas with a few more to consider, https://quoththeraven.substack.com/p/could-democrats-crash-this-market.My broader concern is that investors have become so accustomed to a permissive regulatory environment that they’ve stopped treating it as a variable. In my opinion, deregulation has been a powerful tailwind for financial assets over the last two years, even against a backdrop of tariffs, geopolitical instability, and stretched valuations.--QTR’s Disclaimer: Please read my full legal disclaimer https://quoththeraven.substack.com/about. This post represents my opinions only. In addition, please understand I am an idiot and very often get things wrong and lose money. I may own or transact in any names mentioned in this piece at any time without warning, meaning if I’m long I could sell or if I’m short I could cover at any time. Positions can change immediately. This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any stocks or securities, just my opinions. I often lose money on positions I trade/invest in. I may add any name mentioned in this article and sell any name mentioned in this piece at any time, without further warning.

https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden
Tue, 10/27/2026 - 10:30

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/could-democratic-midterm-win-crash-markets

Americans' Consumer Confidence Rebounded Dramatically Off ...

2026-10-27T14:10:00Z

Americans' Consumer Confidence Rebounded Dramatically Off COVID Lows In October

Americans' Consumer Confidence Rebounded Dramatically Off COVID Lows In October

After crashing below COVID lows in September, The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index surged back to the highest level since June in October's data released today. The headline index rose by 7.5 points to 91.7 (1985=100) in October, up from 84.2 in September (a slight upward revision) and dramatically better than the 81.0 expected.The Present Situation Index - based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions - increased by 8.6 points to 120.4. The Expectations Index - based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions - recovered by 6.9 points to 72.6, only partially reversing three consecutive monthly declines. The survey period for this month’s preliminary results was October 1-21.https://cms.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/2026-10-27_07-03-02_1793109800240.png“Consumer confidence advanced in October, driven primarily by improved perceptions of current and expected business conditions,” said Fergus McCormick, Senior Economist, Global Indicators, The Conference Board.“The recovery was in line with retail gasoline prices easing from September to October. Yet, despite the increase in October, consumer confidence remained on the long-term downward trend that’s persisted over the past few years. Consumers planned less spending on services and durable goods over the next six months. This likely reflected higher price levels and persistent inflation, which eroded consumers’ purchasing power.”That was the biggest beat since May 2025...https://cms.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/2026-10-27_07-03-02_1793109850741.pngMcCormickcontinued: “Among write-in responses in October, consumers continued to express frustration with rising costs. References to prices, the high cost of food and groceries, and oil and diesel prices rose. Comments about war and conflict eased for a second straight month but remained elevated. Mentions of jobs and employment as an area of concern also ticked up, though to a lesser extent.” On a six-month moving average basis, only consumers under age 35 and those with a household income of $100k or more expressed an increase in confidence. By generation, confidence amongst Gen X, Baby Boomers, and the Silent Generation continued to trail significantly behind Gen Z and Millennials, widening a sharp generational divide that has emerged over the past two years.

https://cms.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/cci-oct-2026-3_4bc761c6-40b3-4864-9283-3662d14d891f.pngIn October, confidence improved across all political affiliations—but much more so for Republicans.

https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden
Tue, 10/27/2026 - 10:10

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/americans-consumer-confidence-rebounded-dramatically-covid-lows-october

Iran Says Tanker On Fire After Mine Strike, Following US ...

2026-10-27T13:50:00Z

Iran Says Tanker On Fire After Mine Strike, Following US Commander's Rare Hormuz Flyover

Iran Says Tanker On Fire After Mine Strike, Following US Commander's Rare Hormuz Flyover

Iran has continued hunting tankers in the Strait of Hormuz over the weekend, and on Monday its state media has cited the IRGC to say an 'offending' oil tanker caught fire after hitting mines east of the Strait of Hormuz.Ironically this happened just after an unusual public relations flyover conducted by the Pentagon. The head of US Central Command (CENTCOM) Adm. Brad Cooper personally visited the Strait of Hormuz in an unprecedented moment. On Sunday he flew over the contested waterway in a US Army CH-47 Chinook helicopter in order to demonstrate Washington 'control' over it.

"We continue to stand shoulder to shoulder with our Gulf partners and the shipping industry," he said. "This visit underscores our strong commitment to continued freedom of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz."Cooper further claimed the Strait of Hormuz is "free and clear of Iranian sea mines" - and thanked US service members who took part in the de-mining mission, and operations to help escort tankers through."We remain intensely focused on keeping commercial traffic flowing as we work with our teammates in the US interagency, Gulf Cooperation Council, and shipping industry," he added.Iran of course rejects this US narrative of control over the energy transit waterway. According to a latest Tuesday statement via https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-10-27/iran-says-it-will-take-action-against-sinokor-ships-in-hormuz:Iran’s Persian Gulf Strait Authority said it would take “legal action” against tankers belonging to Sinokor, the world’s biggest oil tanker owner that has carried millions of barrels out of the Strait of Hormuz in recent weeks.“The vessels belonging to Sinokor Shipping Company have committed the highest number of crossing violations over the past 3 months, and so far, appropriate enforcement actions have been taken against at least 7 of them,” the PGSA said in a statement.But this does constitute an important admission of sorts from Tehran - that a huge amount of tanker traffic is making it through, despite the record pace of Iranian attacks. This is mostly being done through ship-to-ship transfers with vessels' transponders turned off, and under the watch of the US Navy.The battle of narratives continues...CENTCOM:

🚫 CLAIM: The navy commander for Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps recently claimed that U.S. forces have abandoned the Strait of Hormuz by moving hundreds of "kilometers" away. This is FALSE.

✅ FACT: U.S. forces deployed to the Middle East remain present and…— Open Source Intel (@Osint613) https://x.com/Osint613/status/2115073229890912516?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
President Trump has lately accused the Iranian side of making up tanker attacks, in order to drive up global oil prices.As for the latest alleged Tuesday mine attack, “A few hours ago, an oil tanker in breach of regulations, having switched off its tracking systems and attempted to cross a prohibited and dangerous area east of the Strait of Hormuz, struck naval mines, causing damage and a fire," Iran's military said in a statement carried by the official IRNA news agency.

https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden
Tue, 10/27/2026 - 09:50

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/iran-says-tanker-fire-after-mine-strike-following-us-commanders-rare-hormuz-flyover

Bolsonaro Drops Annulment Bid As Party Concedes To Lula, Vows ...

2026-10-27T13:35:00Z

Bolsonaro Drops Annulment Bid As Party Concedes To Lula, Vows Congressional "Fortress" Against Socialist Rule

Bolsonaro Drops Annulment Bid As Party Concedes To Lula, Vows Congressional "Fortress" Against Socialist Rule

After the Brazilian runoff election, right-wing Flávio Bolsonaro has abandoned plans to seek its annulment, as his Liberal Party has formally recognized the reelection of socialist President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva.Lula's socialist regime wasted no time attacking Bolsonaro after the election. Federal Police https://www.zerohedge.com/political/brazil-stocks-crater-bolsonaro-seeks-annul-runoff-after-socialist-lulas-shock-victory late Monday, and regime favorite Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes has banned him from leaving the country.Bolsonaro declared that he is under attack by the socialist regime and that this is merely "a sign that our democracy has failed."https://cms.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/2026-10-27_08-42-57_1793104984024.pngGlenn Greenwald https://x.com/ggreenwald/status/2114823644895461537?s=20, "If, by the way, the same situation that just happened in Brazil had happened but with the parties switched ... if Bolsonaro had won last night's election and then a pro-Bolsonaro judge sent the Federal Police to seize Lula's passport and bar him from leaving the country ... every major western media outlet and liberal NGOs would be screaming about the authoritarian attack on Brazil's elections and the destruction of basic freedoms."Notably, Bolsonaro's proposed annulment challenge centered on a last-minute Supreme Court decision extending voting by two hours.Bolsonaro has now changed course, saying he would pursue a separate effort to disqualify Lula's ticket over allegations of false information and misuse of public funds, another legal strategy described as having low odds of success."I wasn't the one who lost. The system won," Bolsonaro said late Monday.Bolsonaro continued, "I will bring together the elected lawmakers and senators to organize our strategy and turn the lower house and the Senate into our fortress against the barbarity that is already taking shape with four more years of Lula."UBS analyst Wensek noted, "If there is a silver lining, Lula will have to build a coalition to pass key policy initiatives through a more right-leaning Senate and Lower House."https://cms.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/HVksiFxWsAAyN7e_1793105080376.jpgAttention now shifts to how Lula and the socialists, praised by the far-left DSA, Democrats, and unhinged Alex Soros, will govern as fiscal strains mount and investors question whether he'll rein in out-of-control spending."Lula's surprise victory resets the Brazil trade: expect higher yields, a weaker BRL and pressure on domestic cyclicals and SMIDs. A right-leaning Congress should constrain fiscal expansion, but lower rates and equity flows are delayed," Jefferies analyst Alejandro Anibal Demichelis wrote in a note.

https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden
Tue, 10/27/2026 - 09:35

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/bolsonaro-drops-annulment-bid-party-concedes-lula-vows-congressional-fortress-against

"Affordability Remains Challenging": US Home Prices Rise ...

2026-10-27T13:15:00Z

"Affordability Remains Challenging": US Home Prices Rise Even As Mortgage Rates Rip

"Affordability Remains Challenging": US Home Prices Rise Even As Mortgage Rates Rip

Home prices in America's top 20 cities rose for the 5th straight month in August (the latest data just released by S&P Cotality Case-Shiller), up 0.27% MoM (vs +0.30% exp) lifting pries 2.65% YoY (the strongest since May)..https://cms.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/2026-10-27_06-09-46_1793106594308.pngHowever, prices declined in real terms for the 15th consecutive month in August 2026, though Rebecca Kaufman, Associate Director of Commodities at S&P Dow Jones Indices note that "the gap narrowed as nominal home price growth strengthened."Chicago led all metros for the sixth consecutive month, posting a 6.7% annual gain, followed by New York (6.2%) and Cleveland (4.3%). On the West coast, Seattle recorded the largest annual decline for the third consecutive month at 2.0%, followed by Las Vegas (-1.3%) and Denver (-0.8%).Seasonality continued to weigh on headline monthly results. On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, the U.S. National and 10-City Composite Indices fell 0.2% and 0.4%, respectively, while their seasonally adjusted counterparts rose 0.3% and 0.4%. The divergence suggests that the typical post-summer slowdown is obscuring some underlying strength in home prices.

Affordability, however, remains challenging. With inflation at 3.4%, Brent crude near $100 per barrel and mortgage rates in the mid-to-high 6% range, households continue to face elevated costs alongside persistently high home prices.”And we fear things are about to get a lot worse...https://cms.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/2026-10-27_06-04-24_1793106533832.jpgThe bottom line is that nominal price growth has accelerated modestly from early-2026 lows but remains well below recent years and continues to lag inflation. Inventory tightness supports modest monthly gains in many areas, while high rates and affordability pressures keep the market subdued, especially in the West.

https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden
Tue, 10/27/2026 - 09:15

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/affordability-remains-challenging-us-home-prices-rise-even-mortgage-rates-rip

Jordan Bombs 'Militant Camp' In Southern Syria After ...

2026-10-27T13:00:00Z

Jordan Bombs 'Militant Camp' In Southern Syria After Church Attack, High Death Toll

Jordan Bombs 'Militant Camp' In Southern Syria After Church Attack, High Death Toll

Jordan's response to the last Friday terror attack on an Orthodox Church in Hammoud, Karak - south of the capital Amman - has been somewhat unexpected. On Monday the country's air force carried out a major bombing raid on southern Syria.There were three gunmen that had https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/gunmen-attack-orthodox-church-jordan-during-service-killing-7-wounding-dozens during a funeral. The attackers killed at least eight people and wounded around 40 more. Jordan's King Abdullah had ordered security forces on ‌Saturday to respond with an "iron fist" amid the hunt for the killers.https://cms.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/AP26300250316010-640x400_b1519d3f-a1e0-4895-a898-e7d4a604a151.jpgSince then, the government announced it arrested the trio of suspects, including two brothers and their ⁠brother-in-law, after a shootout at what was described as their hideout.But in addition to the arrests, "Jordan said on Tuesday it had killed more than 20 Daesh militants in airstrikes on southern Syria the previous evening, launched in response to a deadly church attack in Jordan that authorities linked to militants operating across the border," according to Reuters.But the Syrian side, which has strongly condemned the incursion and violation of sovereignty, indicated that "the strikes killed seven people, including three children and a woman. Jordan regretted the civilian casualties, Government Communication Minister Mohammed al-Momani ‌said in a post ‌on X."Amman further said that the target of the air raid was a 'militant hideout' and that the suspects in the church attack were linked to "terrorist groups" based there.The Jordanian government has elsewhere described that targeted group as members of ISIS, and offered a far higher death toll than the Syrian side, saying that "more than 20 Islamic State militants" were taken out.On the prior terror assault of the church last week, Priest Theodoros Soueiss described that "A sense of panic took hold among those present. The gunfire was indiscriminate, and you never knew where a bullet might land."Reported scenes of the night time bombing of southern Syria:MASSIVE FIERY BLAST ERUPTS over SYRIA, LIGHTING UP NIGHT SKY

PROJECTILES STREAK UPWARD as EXPLOSIONS ROCK AREA NONSTOP https://t.co/QOR6pz6jNj— RT (@RT_com) https://x.com/RT_com/status/2114760917736993218?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
That among the first actions taken by the Jordanian government was to bomb southern Syria is deeply ironic and hypocritical considering the recent history of conflict and Amman's role. For years during the prior Syrian proxy war, https://www.latimes.com/world/la-xpm-2013-jun-21-la-fg-wn-cia-syria-20130621-story.html to CIA and Pentagon training programs for anti-Assad militants, most which turned out to be jihadists. This in turned fueled the persecution of the region's ancient Christian community.

https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden
Tue, 10/27/2026 - 09:00

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/jordan-bombs-militant-camp-southern-syria-after-church-attack

Mexican Illegal Faces Charges After Beheading Iwo Jima Statue ...

2026-10-27T12:45:00Z

Mexican Illegal Faces Charges After Beheading Iwo Jima Statue

Mexican Illegal Faces Charges After Beheading Iwo Jima Statue

Miguel Alonso Maldonado Sorianom, illegal migrant from Mexico residing in the US, has been officially charged after battering a replica of the Iwo Jima flag-raising statue near the Marine Corps base at Quantico, Virginia. One of the figures on the statue was beheaded before police apprehended the man. Prince William County Circuit Court Chief Judge Petula Metzler granted Soriano a $2,500 secured bond. Conditions include GPS monitoring, alcohol/drug testing, remaining in Virginia, and completing a mental health evaluation (plus any recommended treatment). A preliminary hearing is set for January.However, ICE has lodged a retainer, and if the suspect posts bond they plan to take him into custody. Meaning, Soriano will not be escaping with a slap on the wrist. A General District Court judge initially tried to grant the migrant cashless bail until prosecutors objected (another example of the two tier legal system which has long given illegal migrants special treatment). An ICE news release confirmed that Soriano is a Mexican national who entered illegally in 1999. He received DACA in October 2014 from the Obama Administration and his status was renewed under Biden. His latest renewal request was denied by the Trump Administration. He has a prior 2022 trespassing arrest in Stafford County. DHS Secretary Markwayne Mullin called the attack “hateful” and stated criminals like this “have no business being in our country.” He faces charges including: Felony destruction of property, trespass with intent to damage property and felony injury to a monument. A detective testified that investigators quickly noted potential mental health concerns. Soriano allegedly claims that rapper "DaBaby" told him (via social media) to desecrate the statue, and he made statements about suicide during his arrest. Prosecutors, however, say the man's actions were triggered by anger when his Marine Corps application was rejected due to his lack of US citizenship. In any case, whether the man is crazy or simply violent, this is exactly why mass deportations are necessary. The overall drag on US society, through crime or mental illness, is sometimes hard to quantify until the illegals are removed. The incident also showcases the problem with long term illegal immigration. Many critics of Trump's deportations argue that ICE should focus on migrants who have committed recent crimes while leaving those who have lived in the US for many years alone. This kind of thinking actually rewards illegals who have violated immigration law and fed off the US economy for much longer, but it also ignores the reality that many of these people are still ticking time bombs that could be defused. Soriano has been in the US for decades; this does not make him less of a criminal.

https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden
Tue, 10/27/2026 - 08:45

https://www.zerohedge.com/political/mexican-illegal-faces-charges-after-beheading-iwo-jima-statue

Core Durable Goods Orders Rise For 18th Straight Month, AI Spend ...

2026-10-27T12:40:59Z

Core Durable Goods Orders Rise For 18th Straight Month, AI Spend Proxy Dips

Core Durable Goods Orders Rise For 18th Straight Month, AI Spend Proxy Dips

After an unexpected dip in headline durable goods orders last month, preliminary September data was expected to show a significant rebound, and it did, rising 1.8% MoM. However, this was a small miss relative to the +1.9% MoM expected but the August decline was revised up to a +0.1% MoM change (from -0.1%)...https://cms.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/2026-10-27_05-31-33_1793104334191.jpgThis left headline durable goods orders up a solid 10.0% YoY and ius up six of the last seven months.Core durable goods orders rose 0.5% MoM (vs +0.6% exp) and August was also revised up. This was the 18th monthly rise in core orders in a row...https://cms.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/2026-10-27_05-35-40_1793104582797.jpgCore capital goods orders (nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft - the cleanest proxy for business equipment spending): +0.5% (missed ~0.7% consensus; prior +1.6%). Still positive but moderated.Interestingly, a proxy for AI spend slowed last month...This segment includes:
- Telephone Apparatus: Wired and wireless telephones, private branch exchange (PBX) equipment, and VoIP equipment.
- Broadcast and Wireless Equipment: Radio and television broadcast antennas, cellular tower electronics, and two-way radios.
- Network Equipment: Routers, switches, local area network (LAN) and wide area network (WAN) equipment, and fiber-optic transmission gear
https://cms.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/2026-10-27_05-38-27_1793104728124.jpgCore capital goods shipments: +1.2% (beat ~0.8% expected; prior ~+0.5%). This is the more important near-term input for GDP equipment investment and points to continued strength in deliveries.The bottom line is that the headline looked solid, largely on the back of transportation (aircraft). Underlying orders (ex-transport and core capital goods) were more modest and a touch softer than expected after August’s strong core print, but they remain in positive territory. The stronger shipments number is the brighter spot for near-term business investment momentum. As usual, the series is noisy month-to-month; the multi-month trend and core figures matter more than the headline... and they remain positive indicators for growth.

https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden
Tue, 10/27/2026 - 08:40

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/core-durable-goods-orders-rise-18th-straight-month-ai-spend-proxy-dips

Futures Rise, Oil Slides As Iran's Supreme Leader Talks Peace ...

2026-10-27T12:25:27Z

Futures Rise, Oil Slides As Iran's Supreme Leader Talks Peace And Shrugs Off Ras Tanura Attack

Futures Rise, Oil Slides As Iran's Supreme Leader Talks Peace And Shrugs Off Ras Tanura Attack

US futures are higher as hopes for a diplomatic end to the Iran war got a fresh boost after https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/mecca-pact-officials-tehran-last-ditch-diplomacy-us-prepares-96-hour-strike-window, with Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei calling for pursuing the conditions set out by Iranian officials to end the war and an Iranian ambassador floating a seven-day plan to reopen Hormuz, which more than offset a Houthi missile attack on Saudi Arabia's Ras Tanura refinery; as a result oil slid and Treasuries rallied, with the 10Y yield slipping to 4.97% ahead of today's $70BN 5Y auction. As of 8:15am ET, S&P futures are 0.4% higher while Nasdaq futures gain 0.7% and Dow futures rise 0.3%, having spent most of the overnight session flat as the Anthropic IPO euphoria which sparked Monday's tech-led rally (S&P +0.70%, Nasdaq +0.82%) faded just as the bills for AI resume getting bigger: Meta upsized its equity raise to $25BN in common stock (part of a package of up to $97.5BN) while Broadcom arranged a $63BN deal to finance chips for Anthropic. In premarket trading, Tesla leads the Mag 7 while Microsoft lags; memory names are the standout (JPM's DRAM basket +2.1%), Broadcom gains 2.4% on a D.A. Davidson upgrade tied to Anthropic, UPS rises 2% after raising guidance and Whirlpool slides 7.9% after its third guidance cut of the year. The day's driver is Iran (again): oil, which jumped in early European trading on the Ras Tanura reports, reversed lower once the Khamenei headlines hit, with WTI down about 1% near session lows after trading in a $100.60-102.82 range. Treasuries are 2-3bps richer in the front end and belly, steepening the curve, while bunds and gilts outperform; French OATs underperform, with the OAT-Bund spread back above 160bps after French consumer confidence crashed to the lowest since 2013. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot index halved its earlier 0.2% gain as oil dropped, though EUR/USD still hit a two-week low around 1.1143. Gold is back below $4,000 (-0.5%), silver drops 1.5% and copper is up 0.9%; bitcoin slipped under $80,000. US economic data slate includes ADP weekly employment (8:15am), durable goods (8:30am), FHFA and Case-Shiller house prices (9am), Conference Board consumer confidence, Richmond Fed manufacturing and new home sales (10am) and Dallas Fed services (10:30am). The Fed is in its pre-FOMC blackout, so there are no Fed speakers; there are $54BN 52-week and $95BN 6-week bill sales at 11:30am and the $70BN 5Y note auction at 1pm.https://cms.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/ES_2026-10-27_8-10-42_1793103366820.jpgIn premarket trading, Tesla is leading gains among Magnificent Seven stocks as the electric-car maker is on track to outperform the cohort for a second consecutive session: Tesla (TSLA) +1.1%, Nvidia (NVDA) +0.6%, Alphabet (GOOGL) +0.4%, Amazon (AMZN) +0.3%, Apple (AAPL) -0.3%, Meta Platforms (META) -0.4%, Microsoft (MSFT) -0.6%
- Amkor Technology (AMKR) gains 3.7% after the semiconductor manufacturing company’s results were seen as positive on several metrics, including gross margins.
- Broadcom Inc. (AVGO) rises 2.4% after D.A. Davidson upgraded the chipmaker to buy from neutral, seeing potential upside related to Anthropic.
- Cadence Design Systems (CDNS) is up 2.1% after the maker of electronic design automation software raised its full-year forecast and reported third-quarter results that beat expectations.
- Hilton Worldwide (HLT) falls 4.8% after the hotel operator gave a forecast for adjusted earnings per share for the fourth quarter that fell short of the average analyst estimate.
- JetBlue (JBLU) rallies 7.2% after the carrier reiterated its expectation to deliver at least $1 in earnings per share and positive free cash flow in 2028. The shares closed Monday at a record low as the airline grapples with cash burn and elevated oil prices.
- MidCap Financial Investment (MFIC) jumps 20% after Ares Capital agreed to acquire it in a stock-and-cash deal with total enterprise value of ~$2.6b, paying $10.88 per fully diluted MFIC share. Ares Capital (ARCC) falls 1.9%.
- Moderna (MRNA) falls 3.2% after William Blair downgraded the drugmaker to market perform from outperform, citing valuation concerns, following a run-up in the stock.
- UPS (UPS) gains 2% after the courier raised its financial guidance for the year, suggesting it expects to benefit from high prices and resilient demand through the holiday season.
- Whirlpool Corp. (WHR) slides 7.9% after the appliance maker cut its revenue forecast for the full year to below Wall Street’s consensus.In other corporate news, the AI funding frenzy rolls on: Meta upsized its common stock offering to $25 billion from $22.5 billion, with Nvidia planning a $3 billion investment in the raise (because nothing says organic demand like your chip supplier buying your stock, https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/debt-window-slams-shut-meta-taps-shareholders-95-billion-its-own-chip-suppliers-buying), while Broadcom arranged a $63 billion deal to finance the purchase of chips for Anthropic and Goldman and Morgan Stanley scored the top roles on Anthropic’s upcoming IPO. PIMCO bought a $4 billion slice of a huge SpaceX financing deal, Microsoft is offering buyouts to about 60,000 workers (https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/60000-microsoft-workers-offered-buyouts-ai-spending-boom-reshapes-workforce) and BNY Mellon said it is stepping up efforts to monitor AI token costs. Elsewhere, Universal Music discussed going private with buyout firms, Ares Capital is buying MidCap Financial, La Caisse is buying a stake in BCE's tower unit for C$2.45 billion and Investcorp is buying into a Saudi fire-safety firm. On the earnings front, Coca-Cola posted comparable EPS of 91c vs. 88c expected, PayPal raised its FY adjusted EPS forecast to about $5.60 from about $5.38, Boeing's adjusted free cash flow of $464 million topped the $325.1 million estimate, and UPS beat with adjusted EPS of $1.69.Monday’s jolt higher in tech stocks after Anthropic’s IPO filing is having limited follow-through, with investors once again questioning the sustainability of AI demand just as companies issue ever-bigger bills to fund it. The SOX has suffered a peak-to-trough drawdown of more than 25% relative to the S&P 500 this year, rivaling some of the worst selloffs in recent history, and the next inflection point will likely come from megacap earnings, with Alphabet and Microsoft on deck Wednesday (just hours after the Fed), followed by Amazon on Thursday. In the meantime, https://www.zerohedge.com/ai/anthropics-s-1-out-974-million-operating-profit-800-billion-compute-bill-and-elon-musk-landlord remains the gift that keeps on giving for the circular-deal crowd.https://cms.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/Drawdown_in_Chip_Stocks_Rivals_2008-Era_Selloff_-_2026-10-27_1793103376797.jpgDrawdown in chip stocks rivals the 2008-era selloff: SOX performance relative to the S&P 500 is among the worst in recent history.Meanwhile, the gyrations in tech are overshadowing gains in everything else: S&P 500 companies are on track for a 26% jump in quarterly profits, beating the 25% expected, and a basket of S&P 500 stocks excluding AI is up 6% in October, heading for its best month in nearly three years. So far about 26% of the S&P's market cap has reported, with about 80% beating earnings estimates.https://cms.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/SP_500_Ex-AI_Surges_as_AI_Winners_Dip_-_2026-10-27_1793103383695.jpg“There’s nothing approaching a full-scale return to risk-on, and nobody has strong incentives to be a hero ahead of a big week and at this time of the year,” said Andrew Tyler, the head of global market intelligence at JPMorgan.“Most emerging market countries have maintained greater fiscal discipline, so I would not expect Brazil’s turmoil to trigger a broader EM sell-off,” said Rajeev de Mello, global macro portfolio manager at Gama Asset Management. “Fiscal credibility will become an increasingly important differentiator across emerging markets.”Tyler's team remains "Tactically Bullish", arguing that Monday was important in re-establishing the AI theme and that if Oracle's investor day and the megacap prints (Amazon, Google, Intel, Microsoft) are viewed as bullish, it would create additional momentum into the widely expected post-midterm positive seasonal period and year-end rally. JPM's Bram notes that ETF investors aggressively bought the semis dip again, with semiconductor ETFs logging a record ~$12.7BN of inflows (SOXX +$6.5BN, SOXL +$2.8BN, SMH +$2.6BN), while CTAs likely sold US and Japan equities as short-term signals turned negative. On the Fed, JPM's Mike Feroli expects a hold with two hawkish dissents from Hammack and Logan, and quips that Chair Warsh will have to explain why the committee hiked after a two-tenths core PCE print in September but is now holding after an expected three-tenths outturn.Over at Goldman, Rich Privorotsky observes that "the market struggles to go down, even if people remain reluctant to add risk" but warns that "credit is the one to worry about. Still flashing yellow to red relative to equities." Goldman's Ariana Contessa sees "still little signs of offense being played across AI / Tech", with recent bounces mostly driven by a cessation of high-velocity supply, while Robert Quinn flags that non-dealer net length in Nasdaq futures is at a record after $21.8BN of buying since Sept 29, cautioning that "if announcements from Amazon, Microsoft and Alphabet fail to impress, meaningful futures selling could ensue." And for those still obsessing over oil, Goldman's Emma Wade has news: "Tech, not oil, is now driving cross-asset risk." Citi's positioning team, meanwhile, says de-risking dominates global futures, with S&P 500 futures adding $11.3 billion of new shorts last week.Elsewhere, the US may extend a pause on charges for Chinese-linked ships calling at American ports by two months as the two sides iron out broader trade issues, and Trump is set to unveil a plan to dial back federal methane emission requirements for oil and gas operations, part of his push to lower energy costs ahead of the midterms. In Canada, Reuters reports a deal may be forthcoming that eases US tariffs on Canadian autos and steel.In France, the bond selloff resumed: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/french-consumer-confidence-tanks-bond-crisis-far-left-riots-deepen-gloom, the lowest since June 2013 and well below the 85 expected, as households grapple with the bond rout and violent protests, and the OAT-Bund spread widened back above 160bps, erasing roughly half of Monday's Moody's-driven tightening.In Europe, the Stoxx 600 is down 0.1% at 639.87 with 306 members down and 279 up, falling for a third day in four as disappointing earnings from benchmark heavyweight HSBC dragged down banks and pushed the FTSE 100 down about 0.8%. Personal care and autos lag (Mercedes cut its guidance after a slump in China sales, joining VW and BMW), while tech and basic resources outperform. JPM notes semis, power and Ukraine-ceasefire baskets are among the top performers, with China-exposed, diesel and tariff baskets the worst. Here are the biggest European movers:
- BE Semi shares advance as much as 10%, the most since March, after Applied Materials boosted its stake in the Dutch chip-equipment maker to about 20%.
- Ferrovial shares jump as much as 11%, the most in almost six years, after the company said the US I-24 project concession awarded to the consortium it leads is valued at $21 billion.
- SIG Group shares rise as much as 14%, marking a record gain, after the packaging company beat expectations in the third quarter while also raising its margin goal for the year and over the medium-term.
- UMG shares gain as much as 6.2% after Bloomberg reported that the world’s largest record company has discussed going private with a few prominent Wall Street firms.
- Porsche AG shares rise as much as 4.2%, after profitability held up despite another sharp decline in vehicle sales. JPMorgan says the earnings underscore improving momentum for the carmaker in a difficult market environment.
- Novartis shares advance as much as 2.5% after the drugmaker’s third-quarter earnings beat estimates. Analysts note raised outlook for profits and a beat for Cosentyx, the firm’s treatment for chronic inflammatory and autoimmune conditions.
- HSBC shares decline as much as 7.1% in London, making the stock the worst performer Tuesday on the Stoxx 600 Banks Index, after the lender’s 3Q revenue fell short of expectations.
- Wartsila shares drop as much as 8.8%, the most in a year, as Citi says the Finnish engineering company’s medium-term margin targets appear “somewhat light” compared to analyst expectations.
- Reckitt Benckiser shares fall as much as 7.9% after cutting its Core Reckitt like-for-like sales forecast for the full year. The home products retailer also missed on sales, which analysts said was driven by an issue with Lysol manufacturing.
- Beiersdorf shares decline as much as 4.5%, the most since early August, after weakness at adhesives unit Tesa overshadowed a better-than-expected performance in the consumer business that includes Nivea.
- Mercedes-Benz shares drop as much as 5.5%, the most in over a year, after the luxury carmaker cut its profit guidance after sales in China declined. The group joins peers Volkswagen and BMW in downgrading outlook.
- EMS-Chemie shares fall as much as 4.5% after the stock was downgraded to underperform from neutral at Oddo, with analysts saying it’s trading at a level unsupported by earnings revision potential.Asian stocks advanced, led by South Korean chipmakers, as Anthropic’s IPO filing revived enthusiasm for the AI trade. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose as much as 1.1%, with Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix among the biggest gainers. The Kospi jumped 3.1% (up as much as 4.9%, triggering a sidecar) after Q3 GDP beat at +1.0% q/q vs 0.7% expected, the Nikkei gained 1.7% to 63,268 with SoftBank among the leaders thanks to its Anthropic stake, and the ASX rose 0.5%. Hong Kong and mainland China lagged, with the Hang Seng down 0.7% (HSBC slid in Hong Kong after its profit miss) and the CSI 300 down 1.3%, despite China's industrial profits accelerating to +14.4% in September and a PBOC liquidity injection of more than CNY 1.4 trillion. Goldman's Privorotsky notes Hynix +5% and Samsung +4%, while in Japan the BoJ's gauge of underlying inflation jumped to 3.2%, the highest in three years, ahead of Friday's BoJ decision.In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index is up for a third day but halved its 0.2% advance as oil dropped; the DXY sits at the upper end of a 101.99-102.29 range. EUR/USD fell to a two-week low around 1.1143, about 30 pips from its year-to-date low, as French jitters returned. USD/JPY is little changed near 157.75 after Japan's FinMin Katayama said the government will respond to FX moves "with a sense of urgency", while GBP/USD is a touch softer near 1.3325 ahead of Wednesday's UK Budget. The kiwi leads G10 after the NZIER shadow board recommended an RBNZ rate hike this week.In rates, Treasuries log small gains, trailing steeper ones for core European bonds, as oil prices dip following the report that Iran’s Supreme Leader discussed aims of ending the war. Front-end and belly yields are 2-3bps richer with the long end lagging slightly, steepening 2s10s and 5s30s by more than 1bp; the 10Y is around 4.97%, near the session low, with bunds and gilts in the sector outperforming by 1.5bps (gilts got an extra lift from reports that Chancellor Healey will raise the minimum wage by nearly 4%, mechanically boosting his Budget headroom). French OATs gave back about half of Monday's post-Moody's rally. The auction cycle continues with $70BN of 5Y notes at 1pm ET following Monday's 2Y sale; the WI 5Y yield around 4.805% is about 23bps richer than last month’s auction, which tailed by 3.1bps (and after https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/foreign-demand-craters-ugly-tailing-2y-treasury-auction-ahead-fed-decision, the bar is not exactly high). The IG dollar slate includes three names so far after Procter & Gamble headlined $17.05BN of issuance Monday. Traders price just a 12% chance of a Fed hike Wednesday and a 90% chance of a 25bp hike in December.In commodities, crude dipped in Asia, spiked as Europe walked in on reports that missiles targeted Saudi Arabia's 550k bpd Ras Tanura refinery (Saudi Arabia later said it contained the fire), then reversed lower on the Khamenei headlines; WTI Dec traded in a $100.60-102.82 range and Brent Jan in a $109.53-111.91 range. Sources say OPEC+ is expected to keep December production targets unchanged at Sunday's meeting, while Energy Transfer declared force majeure at its Nederland LPG terminal. Dutch TTF is down about 1.6%. Spot gold slipped back below $4,000/oz and silver is down about 1.4%, while copper is up about 0.9%.US economic data slate includes ADP weekly employment (8:15am), September durable goods (8:30am), August FHFA house prices and Case-Shiller (9am), October Conference Board consumer confidence, Richmond Fed manufacturing and September new home sales (10am) and Dallas Fed services activity (10:30am). The Fed is in blackout ahead of Wednesday's FOMC decision. On the corporate calendar, Visa, Robinhood, Seagate, Teradyne and Waste Management report after the close, and Oracle's AI World tour runs through Wednesday.Market Snapshothttps://cms.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/Market_Snapshot_-_2026-10-27_1793103257821.jpgTop Overnight News
- Mojtaba Khamenei called for pursuing the conditions set out by Iranian officials with the aim of ending the war during a meeting with Iran’s Supreme National Security Council Secretary Mohsen Rezaee; the meeting also covered Iran’s management of the Strait of Hormuz. BBG
- Iran's ambassador to South Korea said Iran has proposed a seven-day plan to the US, under which the Strait of Hormuz would reopen on the sixth day if Washington accepts the conditions, with negotiations beginning on the seventh. Newsquawk
- China will send special envoys to the Middle East, adding to efforts to defuse tensions and prevent the resumption of US-Israeli strikes against Iran. BBG
- Saudi Arabia contained a fire near its Ras Tanura oil hub after an attack; the Houthis claimed they targeted the refinery. BBG
- Iran said it will take legal action against Sinokor vessels in the Strait of Hormuz. BBG
- Israelis are voting in their first election since the 2023 Hamas attack, with Benjamin Netanyahu seeking another term in a razor-thin race against an opposition led by former military chief Gadi Eisenkot. BBG
- China’s industrial profits grew at their strongest pace last month since June, as a boom in manufacturing tied to artificial intelligence offset drag from persistently weak domestic demand. CNBC
- South Korea’s economy grew faster than expected in the third quarter as an artificial intelligence-fueled chip boom powered exports and investment, but a contraction in consumption underscored an increasingly uneven expansion that may complicate the trajectory for further interest-rate hikes. BBG
- The BoJ’s gauge of underlying inflation surged to the highest in three years, well above the bank’s 2% target. Consumer prices excluding fresh food and special factors rose 3.2% in September from a year earlier, with the pace quickening from 2.6% in the previous month. BBG
- French consumer confidence plunged to a 13-year low in October as households grappled with a bond selloff and violent protests. Respondents became more worried about finances, living standards and unemployment. BBG
- Flávio Bolsonaro dropped his challenge to Brazil’s election result as his party conceded defeat. Attention now turns to how Lula da Silva will govern as fiscal strains mount and investors question whether he’ll rein in spending. BBG
- Private-equity firms are scrambling to avoid big losses from a potential wave of defaults by the companies they own. Fund managers are racing to negotiate loan extensions on much of a $300 billion wall of debt that is coming due starting in 2028. It is a pressing need that is intensifying because rising interest rates have made refinancing more expensive this year. WSJ
- The United States and Canada are working on a deal to ease US tariffs on Canadian steel and autos, two US and four Canadian sources said, as the two governments try to repair relations that soured after trade talks broke down in August. RTRS
- Meta’s common stock offering was upsized to $25 billion from $22.5 billion, while Broadcom arranged a $63 billion deal to finance the purchase of chips for Anthropic. BBG
- The US plans a two-month extension to its shipping-fee truce with China, pausing charges on Chinese-linked ships calling at American ports. BBG
- Trump is set to unveil a plan to dial back federal requirements designed to slash methane emissions from oil and gas operations. BBG
- The ECB's bank lending survey showed banks tightened credit conditions and saw loan demand fall, while ECB MRO funding rose to €27 billion, the highest since 2017. BBG
- US President Trump posted "The Trump Administration is proud to announce a 250 MILLION DOLLAR PLUS initiative to RECRUIT and RETAIN Nurses for Nursing Homes!"
- US appeals court denied the Trump administration's request to stop California from counting mail ballots from alleged non-citizens.
- Goldman's Jan Hatzius says the firm's strongest global view is that central banks will deliver fewer hikes than currently priced, with energy the most immediate downside growth risk. GIR
- JPM's Feroli expects the Fed to hold this week with hawkish dissents from Hammack and Logan, and sees a risk that Kashkari also dissents. JPMA more detailed look at global markets courtesy of NewsquawkAPAC stocks were ultimately mixed, but with strength seen in tech stocks following the outperformance in the sector stateside as it recovered from the recent AI-led sell-off and with Anthropic filing for an IPO. ASX 200 clawed back initial losses with the index led higher by the commodity-related sectors, but with gains capped as defensives and consumer stocks lagged. Nikkei 225 was underpinned by the tech-related momentum, with SoftBank among the biggest gainers owing to its stake in Anthropic and as it explores AI and digital infrastructure opportunities in Malaysia. KOSPI outperformed and triggered a sidecar amid the tech strength and stronger-than-expected GDP. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp lagged despite the PBoC's liquidity boost, with today's open market operations totalling more than CNY 1.4tln, while continued double-digit percentage growth in YTD Industrial Profits also failed to inspire, as participants await earnings releases and with HSBC shares pressured after its results missed expectations. In addition, trade frictions lingered as the EU plans to impose import restrictions on Chinese chemicals and furniture.Top Asian News
- Japanese government expert panel discussed revision to three security-related documents, Kyodo reported citing sources, adding that "tax increases should not be ruled out as an option if necessary."European bourses are broadly lower, with the FTSE 100 (-0.9%) the laggard following disappointing HSBC earnings (see more below). In terms of a broader driver, newsflow has been light. Overnight, tech stocks continued to rebound from the recent AI-led sell-off, with Anthropic filing for an IPO. Sectors lack a clear bias. Basic Resources top the sector pile, with Tech and Construction closely behind. Optimised Personal Care is the sector underperformer, followed by Autos as Mercedes cut its FY26 guidance, which is weighing on its peers. Key movers include: HSBC -6.9%, PBT and revenue miss estimates; Novartis +1.1%, adj. operating income and EPS beat while lifting its FY26 operating income guidance; BE Semi +8.8%, as Applied Materials plans to raise its stake to 20% (currently 9%); Ferrovial +8.7%, reportedly looking to find a JV partner to finance its data centre campus. US equity futures are mixed, with the NQ underperforming despite a tech rebound overnight. Nvidia and Meta are flat pre-market, as the former plans a USD 3bln investment in Meta’s equity offering. Elsewhere, Cadence Design Systems (+3.1%) is higher pre-market after a Q3 beat and guidance upgrade.Top European News
- UK Chancellor Healey unveiled five everyday fixes to ease household costs, support working families and end the Carer’s Allowance cliff edge ahead of Wednesday’s Budget, according to the government.
- The European Commission is reportedly exploring using revenues from a global corporate tax agreement targeting large multinationals to fund the EU's next seven-year budget, Politico reported citing sources.
- French Finance Minister Lescure said France must appease protesters without extra spending and that the government can come up with creative solutions without widening the budget deficit, according to the FT.FX
- DXY extended Monday's gains and sits at the upper end of a 101.99 to 102.29 range, comfortably above its 100-DMA (100.60) and 200-DMA (99.59). Currency-specific newsflow has been light, as participants await this week's slew of risk events, including the FOMC, BoJ and ECB meetings, the UK Budget, US PCE and three Mag-7 earnings reports; ING wrote that higher energy prices and a hawkish Fed can keep the Dollar supported this week, barring clearly underwhelming results from the likes of Alphabet and Microsoft. Today's US docket includes Durable Goods, Richmond Fed and Dallas Fed Services, while the Israeli election is also in focus, with exit polls due at 20:00GMT/16:00EDT.
- EUR/USD has extended beneath Monday's 1.1173 trough, and currently holds at the bottom end of a 1.1135 to 1.1177 range, largely moving in tandem with the USD; the pair sits well below its 100-DMA (1.1559) and 200-DMA (1.1632). Options today reside at 1.1175 (EUR 834mln) and 1.1200 (EUR 721mln).
- USD/JPY is incrementally firmer, and holds at the upper end of a 157.42 to 157.89 range, just beneath the 200-DMA at 158.52. Some focus could fall on today's NY cut (in the absence of macro impulses), which sees a cluster of expiries, most notably at 157.85 (USD 2.1bln), alongside 157.75 (USD 1bln) and 158.00 (USD 1.5bln). On the verbal intervention front, Japan's FinMin Katayama said the government will respond to FX trade damage with a sense of urgency, while former BoJ Governor Kuroda said the BoJ will likely consider raising rates at each upcoming meeting; overnight, BoJ Core CPI rose to 3.2% (prev. 2.6%), ahead of Friday's BoJ decision.
- GBP/USD is a touch softer and trades in a 1.3307 to 1.3349 range, holding just beneath its 100-DMA (1.3386) and 200-DMA (1.3429) ahead of tomorrow's Autumn Budget. The BRC Shop Price Inflation report ticked higher (2.1% vs exp. 1.6%), while The Times reported that Chancellor Healey will announce plans to raise the minimum wage by nearly 4%, but slow the rise for young people. Options see GBP 800mln rolling off 1.3300.
- The Antipodeans outperform, with the NZD higher as the NZIER Shadow Board also recommends a hike, with the RBNZ also expected to hike rates overnight. Australian CPI is also due on Wednesday.Central Banks
- New Zealand NZIER Shadow Board recommended the RBNZ raise the cash rate this week.Fixed Income
- An initial modestly firmer bias gave way to relatively flat performance, but with a negative skew from the renewed, but brief, upside in Brent and WTI. More recently, that upside has waned, with fixed benchmarks now picking up a touch, taking USTs into the green by a few ticks.
- The US day is mainly counting down to the FOMC on Wednesday. That aside, the Israeli election is of potential note (exit poll due at 20:00GMT), in case it results in an approach-change to the Middle East conflict.
- Bunds in-fitting with USTs, but with some very modest outperformance, as while the upside in the global energy benchmarks has weighed, Dutch TTF has pulled back slightly from the marked upside on Monday, providing some relative relief. At the time of writing, Bunds hold above the 122.00 handle in 121.96 to 122.23 parameters.
- OATs take a bit of a breather from the rally on Monday, currently lower by about 30 ticks vs upside of around 80 ticks overall that session. As such, the OAT-Bund 10yr yield spread is around 7bps wider, erasing roughly half of the tightening on Monday post-Moody’s.
- Finally, Gilts opened with gains of 13 ticks, before climbing another 31 to an 85.43 peak. Upside driven by the minimum wage reporting being digested, a lift that mechanically provides Chancellor Healey with a significant headroom win. Since, as energy picked up across the morning, this strength has waned somewhat.
- UK sells GBP 4.5bln 4.625% 2032 Gilt: b/c 3.51x (prev. 3.07x), average yield 5.026% (prev. 4.84%), tail 0.3bps (prev. 0.4bps).
- Italy sells EUR 2.0bln (exp. 1.5-2.0bln) 3.00% 2028 BTP: b/c 1.72x (prev. 1.64x), average yield 3.55% (prev. 3.64%).
- Australia sells AUD 1.0bln in 4.75% October 2037 Bonds: b/c 3.12x, avg. yield 5.2051%.Commodities
- Crude benchmarks dipped in the APAC session amid a lack of major geopolitical escalation, but climbed as Europe stepped in, before paring some of that upside to currently sit in the upper half of today's ranges but modestly lower on a percentage change. WTI Dec'26 trades within a USD 100.60-102.82/bbl range, and Brent Jan'27 within a USD 109.53-111.91/bbl range; both remain within Monday's parameters (WTI: USD 100.33-103.13/bbl; Brent: USD 109.22-112.20/bbl).
- The move higher came after Iranian state media IRIB, citing Arab media, reported that Saudi Arabia's Ras Tanura refinery (550k BPD) was targeted by missiles; reports later suggested the fire was contained. More recently, Saudi Civil Defence issued an emergency alert in Najran, while the Houthis claimed an attack on Abha and Khamis Mushait, with explosions reportedly heard in both cities and at Khamis Mushait Air Base; Saudi Civil Defence has since said the danger has passed. Elsewhere, sources said OPEC+ is expected to maintain December oil production targets at Sunday's meeting.
- Dutch TTF is lower by c. 1.6%, within a EUR 94.85-96.70/MWh range. Iranian President Pezeshkian met Qatar's Emir at the GECF summit in Moscow, where they discussed expanding energy cooperation, while Press TV reported that Iran, Russia and Azerbaijan are discussing a gas swap agreement.
- Spot gold slipped back beneath the USD 4k/oz mark in the European morning, and sits towards the bottom end of a USD 3,989-4,026/oz range alongside the firmer Dollar, well beneath its 100-DMA (USD 4,218/oz) and 200-DMA (USD 4,504/oz). Spot silver is lower by c. 1.4% within a USD 52.67-54.23/oz range.
- Copper is firmer, with CME copper futures up c. 0.9% and at the top of a USD 6.54-6.60/lb range, having edged higher overnight alongside the tech-related momentum in stocks. 3M LME copper trades in a USD 14,322.18-14,446.72/t range.
- US President Trump is to ease oil well methane curbs in a bid to lower costs.
- OPEC+ is reportedly expected to maintain December oil production targets at Sunday's meeting, according to sources.
- Singapore and France are to deepen cooperation on electricity and gas, while Singapore and New Zealand will also strengthen energy cooperation.Trade/Tariffs
- USTR Greer issued a statement regarding the status of the US-EU deal to pause duties on certain EU imports, while he stated that European Investment Bank loans to Airbus (AIR FP) may be a violation of the US-EU trade truce and it is important that the situation is resolved as soon as possible.
- German Chancellor Merz said the EU seeks closer partnership with ASEAN and is complementary to talks between the EU and Canada. Regarding CPTPP collaboration, Merz said that the EU, with 450mln consumers, has strategic interest in having open access to markets.Geopolitics: Middle East
- The Iranian Ambassador to South Korea said Iran has proposed a seven-day plan to the US and is preparing a response to US feedback, adding that Iran does not want war and seeks to reduce tensions through diplomacy. Additionally, the ambassador said that the Strait of Hormuz would reopen on the sixth day if Washington accepts the conditions, with negotiations beginning on the seventh day.
- Iran's Supreme National Security Council Secretary General Rezaei said security in West Asia must be devoid of foreign interference, following the conclusion of quadrilateral talks involving Iran, Pakistan, Turkey and Saudi Arabia in Tehran, according to Press TV.
- IRGC Supreme Leader's representative warned that Iran knows the enemy's vulnerabilities and would deliver a more devastating response than before if attacked again.
- A Houthi official said Egypt's parliament authorising military support for Saudi Arabia amounts to a declaration of war against Yemen, AFP reported.
- Saudi-led coalition intercepted three Houthi ballistic missiles aimed at the eastern region, while it also intercepted four drones launched by Yemen's Houthis towards the southern region.
- Saudi Arabia's Ras Tanura refinery (550k BPD) was reportedly targeted by missiles, triggering powerful explosions and large plumes of smoke, IRIB reported. Following this, Saudi Arabia said it contained the fire near the Ras Tanura oil hub following an attack.
- Explosions were reportedly heard at Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia, while Saudi Civil Defence said sirens sounded in Al-Kharj and the Eastern Province, ISNA reported.
- Saudi airstrikes reported on port of Mokha and surrounding areas in Yemen, according to SNN.Geopolitics: Ukraine
- Russian Defence Ministry said Russia suspended strikes on Ukraine's Kherson as a ceasefire began in Oleshky.
- Russian Defence Ministry said Russian forces struck a cargo ship in the Black Sea and an industrial facility producing drones in Kyiv, according to IFX.
- Russian attacks targeted Kyiv's transport infrastructure and logistics hub in the Kharkiv region.
- Explosions were heard in Ukraine's capital, Kyiv, according to reports citing a witness.Geopolitics: Other
- Taiwan considers drone swarms as a defence measure against Beijing's grey-zone operations, according to the South China Morning Post.Crypto
- Bitcoin remains contained within Monday's parameters, as the cryptocoin falls below USD 80k.US Event Calendar
- 8:15am: ADP Weekly Employment Change
- 8:30am: Sep P Durable Goods Orders, est. 1.9%, prior -0.1%
- 8:30am: Sep P Durables Ex Transportation, est. 0.6%, prior 0.2%
- 8:30am: Sep P Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air, est. 0.7%, prior 1.6%
- 9:00am: Aug FHFA House Price Index MoM, est. 0.2%, prior 0.3%
- 9:00am: Aug S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller home prices
- 10:00am: Oct Conf. Board Consumer Confidence, est. 81.0, prior 81.9
- 10:00am: Oct Richmond Fed Manufact. Index, est. 0, prior -2
- 10:00am: Sep New Home Sales, est. 651k, prior 684k
- 10:30am: Oct Dallas Fed Services Activity
- 11:30am: $54bn 52-week bill and $95bn 6-week bill auctions
- 1:00pm: $70bn 5-year note auctionCentral Bank Speakers
- None: the Fed is in its external communications blackout ahead of Wednesday's FOMC decisionDB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrapAfter a night of freedom while my family headed off to Centre Parcs yesterday, my brief spell of peace and reflection is nearly over. After work today, I’m driving to join them for a couple of days. So while you’re all focused on major tech earnings and the FOMC, against my will I’ll be zip-wiring, aerial roping, kayaking, swimming, trying not to sink in the rapids, and, of course, paying the bills. Spare a thought for me.Markets have started the week in a broadly optimistic mood, with the S&P 500 (+0.70%), Nasdaq Composite (+0.82%) and STOXX 600 (+0.77%) all advancing yesterday, whilst longer-dated bonds mostly rallied. The OAT-Bund spread tightened -13.8bps to 153bps, which is the biggest daily narrowing since March 2020. But politics remained firmly on the radar, with Brazilian assets selling off sharply after President Lula’s surprise election victory over Flávio Bolsonaro, leaving the Bovespa down -13.88% and the real -8.06%, the worst USD adjusted day for domestic equities in nearly 35 years but not as bad as this time yesterday. And today brings another potentially much more consequential election for global markets in Israel, not least because of what the result could mean for the next phase of the confrontation with Iran. Oil markets remain volatile, with both Brent (-0.78% to $115.81/bbl) and WTI (-1.46% to $101.76/bbl) eventually settling slightly lower amid news of talks between Iran and the Mecca Pact countries.Starting with equities, the positive tone saw the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rise +2.82% after falling -3.21% last week, whilst the Mag 7 gained +0.76%. Some of the recent AI-related underperformers also rebounded, including CoreWeave (+1.76%), despite initially falling in pre-market trading after Elon Musk wrote on X on Sunday that “neoclouds” would see “guppy-level death and consolidation”, arguing that debt markets would be reluctant to finance companies overwhelmingly reliant on AI data centres for their revenues. Meta (-1.88%) dipped after announcing plans to raise as much as $95bn through a stock sale. Meanwhile, Microsoft (+1.54%) gained after announcing that it will offer buyouts to about 60,000 employees as part of an effort to trim costs. Europe joined the rally too, with the DAX (+0.91%), CAC 40 (+0.83%) and FTSE 100 (+0.72%) all advancing.There was also some more encouraging news from the Middle East yesterday, although the overall daily move was muted as investors remain wary of extrapolating too much from the latest diplomatic efforts. Senior officials from Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan – which form the Mecca Defence Alliance – met Iranian representatives in Tehran in the hope of promoting greater regional stability, with state-run IRIB reporting that Iran would support “any understanding” that strengthened regional unity. That comes after reports last week that the US and Israeli militaries had begun drawing up plans for renewed strikes on Iran.The positive read across from those diplomatic developments was partially offset by Reuters reporting that Hezbollah was preparing for a possible resumption of hostilities with Israel, with Brent reaching $117.44/bbl intra-day after the report. But the more upbeat news dominated in the end, with Brent settling -0.78% lower at $115.81 and trading another -1.04% lower this morning. By contrast, European natural gas futures climbed +3.01% to a new post-2022 high of €96.68/MWh amid a supply outage in Norway, even as US natural gas prices (-1.44%) fell to a 6-month low amid the warm weather.In Europe, France was the biggest story. 10yr OAT yields fell -11.6bps after Moody’s surprised the market on Friday by leaving France’s credit rating unchanged. The weekend protests were also controlled in a way the previous weekend’s weren’t. That all helped the OAT-Bund spread tighten -13.8bps to 153bps, its largest one-day decline since March 2020, with the move amplified by 10yr Bund yields rising +2.2bps. Elsewhere, 10yr BTP yields fell -8.2bps and gilt yields were down -1.2bps. At the front end, 2yr Bunds rose +4.9bps with French (-4.5bps) and Italian (-2.5bps) lower. There was likely some unwinding of flight to quality here too, while bund yields were also boosted by the energy component as well as a stronger-than-expected IFO survey reading that saw the expectations component rise to its highest since 2022 at 91.6 (vs. 90.0 expected).In the US, 2yr Treasury yields (+3.5bps) reversed some of last week’s decline amid the risk-on tone, although longer maturities rallied amid the pullback in US energy prices, leaving 10yr Treasury yields -0.7bps at 4.99%.Asian equity markets are mostly trading higher this morning but US and European futures are slightly lower. Within the region, the KOSPI (+3.27%) is outperforming, led by strong advances in heavyweight chipmakers Samsung Electronics (+4.23%) and SK Hynix (+6.12%). Sentiment has also been boosted by stronger-than-expected third-quarter GDP data from South Korea (details below). Elsewhere, the Nikkei (+1.55%) is posting solid gains, while Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 (+0.49%) is also higher. In contrast, Chinese equities are underperforming the broader regional rally, with the CSI 300 (-0.39%), Hang Seng (-0.64%), and Shanghai Composite (-0.45%) all trading lower. S&P 500 (-0.09%), Nasdaq (-0.38%) and Stoxx (-0.41%) are all lower with 10-year US Treasury yields -2.1bps lower at 4.968% as we go to print.Earlier, Chinese industrial profits accelerated in September, driven primarily by strength in AI-related industries, while consumer-facing sectors continued to face headwinds from weak domestic demand. Industrial profits rose 14.4% y/y in September, marking the fastest pace of growth since June. For the first nine months of 2026, profits at large industrial firms increased 15.5%, marginally below the 15.7% growth recorded over January-August.Turning to South Korea, the economy expanded faster than expected in the third quarter of 2026 as robust global demand for advanced AI chips continued to support growth. GDP rose +3.4% y/y in the three months to September, exceeding expectations of +3.0%, although moderating from 3.7% growth in the previous quarter. On a quarterly basis, GDP increased +1.0%, ahead of consensus forecasts for a +0.8% rise.Another election worth watching today is in Israel, and potentially a much more important one for global markets. Neither Benjamin Netanyahu’s bloc nor the opposition led by former military chief Gadi Eisenkot currently appears to have a clear route to the 61 Knesset seats needed for a majority, with the smaller parties, the 3.25% electoral threshold, and potentially the Arab parties likely to prove crucial to the eventual coalition arithmetic. Our economists think that leaves everything from another Netanyahu-led government to an opposition or unity government, political deadlock and potentially another election on the table.But the bigger global question is what the result means for Iran. There is broad agreement across the Israeli political mainstream on preventing Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon, so an opposition victory shouldn’t necessarily be interpreted as a dovish outcome. However, there is an important difference over the endgame. Eisenkot has said Israel should be prepared to intervene militarily if necessary to prevent an Iranian nuclear weapon, whilst stopping short of pursuing regime change. Netanyahu, by contrast, has maintained that regime change is ultimately necessary to remove the Iranian threat. That distinction could matter considerably if tensions re-escalate after the US midterms. So today’s vote won’t remove the prospect of another confrontation with Iran, but it could have an important bearing on what Israel ultimately wants any confrontation to achieve. So the aftermath and coalition arithmetic will be very relevant well beyond Israel.To the day ahead now, US data includes the October Conference Board consumer confidence index, Richmond Fed manufacturing and business conditions indices, September durable goods orders and new home sales. In Europe, we’ll get France’s October consumer confidence and Eurozone September M3. It will also be a busy day for earnings, including Visa, HSBC, NXP Semiconductors, Teradyne and Boeing. Finally, the US Treasury will auction $70bn of 5yr notes.

https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden
Tue, 10/27/2026 - 08:25

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/futures-rise-oil-slides-irans-supreme-leader-talks-peace-and-shrugs-ras-tanura-attack-0

Apple Offers iPhone Duo Replacement After 'Crackgate' ...

2026-10-27T12:25:00Z

Apple Offers iPhone Duo Replacement After 'Crackgate' Emerges

Apple Offers iPhone Duo Replacement After 'Crackgate' Emerges

Well "https://www.zerohedge.com/technology/crackgate-begins-apple-aware-duo-screens-breaking-complaints-mount"; unfolded for Apple over the weekend and into the new week as some users of the foldable iPhone reported "hearing a crunching sound" while using the new smartphone, only to discover that the display had malfunctioned and the screen had cracked.X and Reddit users first posted about these malfunctions, along with footage of broken iPhone Duo devices with cracks down the center of their screens. Amid disappointment across some of the user base, Apple, under the new leadership of John Ternus, is trying to make things right.The company told Reuters it acknowledged the "display problems" and said it would replace affected units.https://assets.zerohedge.com/s3fs-public/inline-images/HVdcjsdacAA7bLS.jpgHere's what the outlet reported:Apple acknowledged the problems on Monday, saying affected units tend to show the problem quickly."We are aware of an issue impacting the inner display on a small number of iPhone Duo units," Apple said in a statement. "If users experience issues with their iPhone Duo display, they should contact AppleCare for a replacement."We outlined on Monday that the new Duo's point of failure for the new Duo could be structural and potentially hinge-related, suggesting an issue that may extend far beyond quality control.The Potential Failure Pointhttps://assets.zerohedge.com/s3fs-public/inline-images/HVdsIIcbkAAMSxV.jpgOne X user wrote: "The iPhone Duo broke after 75k folds very disappointing to see for a ~ $2000 phone."the iPhone Duo broke after 75k folds very disappointing to see for a ~ $2000 phone https://t.co/Q08NlL5S2Q— Holly - I like tech (@AnxiousHolly) https://x.com/AnxiousHolly/status/2114758896203997189?ref_src=twsrc%5EtfwRepair specialist iFixit said teardown footage, patents and scans suggested a central support bar might not move clear of the display during folding, creating a concentrated stress point near reported damage locations that could cause the screen to break.Reuters cited research firm IDC's Francisco Jeronimo, who said Apple's quick replacement offer is the "right first step," adding, "We all remember when Samsung experienced problems with the original Galaxy Fold in 2019, but it also showed that a fast and transparent response can contain the damage to a category."Apple had years to perfect the Duo, and the utter disappointment just days after launch certainly doesn't look great for Ternus.

https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden
Tue, 10/27/2026 - 08:25

https://www.zerohedge.com/technology/apple-offers-iphone-duo-replacement-after-crackgate-emerges

US Army Says It Has Helped 1.5 Billion Barrels Of Oil Out Of ...

2026-10-27T12:15:00Z

US Army Says It Has Helped 1.5 Billion Barrels Of Oil Out Of Hormuz

US Army Says It Has Helped 1.5 Billion Barrels Of Oil Out Of Hormuz

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/US-Army-Says-It-Has-Helped-15-Billion-Barrels-of-Oil-Out-of-Hormuz.html,U.S. forces have helped Persian Gulf producers move more than 1.5 billion barrels out of the Strait of Hormuz since the Iran war began, Adm. Brad Cooper, the commander of U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM), https://www.centcom.mil/MEDIA/PUBLIC-RELEASES/Article/4633061/centcom-commander-visits-strait-of-hormuz-during-milestone-week/ during a visit to the Strait of Hormuz on Sunday.https://assets.zerohedge.com/s3fs-public/inline-images/2026-10-26_j1zadydcqu.jpgMore than 3,000 commercial vessels have successfully transited the Strait of Hormuz with support from CENTCOM forces over the last six months, the U.S. military said."We continue to stand shoulder to shoulder with our Gulf partners and the shipping industry," said Cooper."This visit underscores our strong commitment to continued freedom of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz."American forces have successfully cleared the Strait of Hormuz's international shipping lanes of sea mines laid by Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), according to the U.S. Central Command.The U.S. military said that the 95% success rate of ships navigating the Strait of Hormuz without incident in recent months is "clearly demonstrating that the United States and regional partners control the international waterway."Oil flows out of the Strait of Hormuz, and the whole Middle East has recovered in the past two months, according to various tanker-tracking services. Some estimates put the flows at the Strait of Hormuz at already exceeding pre-war levels, excluding Iranian exports.However, threats to shipping in the area https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Oil-Prices-Rise-Despite-Middle-East-Export-Recovery.html. On the contrary, the escalating Saudi-Houthi tensions could disrupt the recovering flows, while Iran has claimed dozens of hits on tankers in the Persian Gulf and in the Strait of Hormuz.At any rate, the market continues to price in a prolonged disruption and continued inefficient oil shipments, which have hiked shipping costs to record highs, further raising the cost of crude oil for buyers and ultimately, for the end consumers.https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Oil-Prices-Dip-but-Hold-Above-100-as-Middle-East-Supply-Threats-Mount.html in Asian trade on Monday, but Brent Crude remained above $115 per barrel, and WTI was still above the $100 mark, as hostilities between Yemen's Houthis and Saudi Arabia, as well as Iranian attacks on tankers in the Persian Gulf, continue.

https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden
Tue, 10/27/2026 - 08:15

https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/us-army-says-it-has-helped-15-billion-barrels-oil-out-hormuz

Europe Faces Early Winter Stress Test As Cold Snap Looms, NatGas ...

2026-10-27T12:00:00Z

Europe Faces Early Winter Stress Test As Cold Snap Looms, NatGas Prices Near Triple Digits

Europe Faces Early Winter Stress Test As Cold Snap Looms, NatGas Prices Near Triple Digits

US natural gas futures have fallen to levels last seen in April as unusually warm weather across the Lower 48 suppresses heating demand, potentially reflecting El Niño's weather-related influence. Europe faces a much different outlook: a cold snap forecast for next week has helped push benchmark TTF NatGas prices toward 100 euros per megawatt-hour, highlighting the widening split between the two energy markets.Bloomberg reports that temperatures across parts of continental Europe are forecast to fall 2C to 3C below normal from the weekend, while northeastern China, Japan and South Korea face a new round of cold weather, with temperatures well below seasonal averages.https://cms.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/Snag_3f548574_1793101152734.pngThe forecasts follow TTF's climb above 97 euros per megawatt-hour on Monday for the first time since the 2022 energy crisis.https://cms.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/Snag_3f53c9d5_1793101097005.pngThe region's storage facilities are just 75% full, compared with a 10-year average of around 90% for this time of year.https://assets.zerohedge.com/s3fs-public/inline-images/Snag_24ed6575.pngLast Thursday, Gas Infrastructure Europe data showed that EU natural gas inventories https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/el-nino-warmth-crushes-us-natgas-futs-15-weekly-rout. This is troubling because the EU has entered the withdrawal period with seasonally low inventories, leaving limited buffers to shield the continent from back-to-back cold blasts.https://assets.zerohedge.com/s3fs-public/inline-images/Snag_24ebc2e1.pngThe smaller buffer leaves Europe increasingly dependent on the international market, where it must compete with Asian buyers. This suggests TTF prices will have to rise sharply as the Hormuz maritime chokepoint remains chaotic.What markets likely fear most heading into winter is "joint cold across multiple high-energy-demand regions," said Andrew Pedrini, a meteorologist at Atmospheric G2.Across the Atlantic, US natural gas futures have plunged in recent weeks to their https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/el-nino-warmth-crushes-us-natgas-futs-15-weekly-rout amid warmer weather trends across the Lower 48.https://cms.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/Snag_3f555a78_1793101195369.pngCommodity Weather Group expects US October and November combined to be the third-warmest such period since records began in 1950, reinforcing expectations for a mild winter driven by El Niño.

https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden
Tue, 10/27/2026 - 08:00

https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/europe-faces-early-winter-stress-test-cold-snap-looms-natgas-prices-near-triple-digits

French Consumer Confidence Tanks As Bond Crisis, Far-Left Riots ...

2026-10-27T11:20:00Z

French Consumer Confidence Tanks As Bond Crisis, Far-Left Riots Deepen Gloom

French Consumer Confidence Tanks As Bond Crisis, Far-Left Riots Deepen Gloom

French consumer confidence cratered to its lowest level in 13 years as a bond market selloff that sent yields soaring, https://www.zerohedge.com/political/french-officials-say-1300-arrests-made-amid-latest-unrestsparked by far-left groups, and political instability all collided at once, casting a dark economic cloud over the European country.New national sport in France: looting. https://t.co/dTywW4gJuK— RadioGenoa (@RadioGenoa) https://x.com/RadioGenoa/status/2113815200537145467?ref_src=twsrc%5EtfwStatistics agency Insee reported that its monthly consumer confidence gauge plunged five points this month, falling well below forecasts compiled by https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-10-27/french-consumer-confidence-hits-lowest-since-2013-after-riots. This was the lowest reading since June 2013, in the aftermath of the eurozone debt crisis.https://cms.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/bbg_france_1793098872483.pngHouseholds'; assessments of past living standards fell to their lowest since records began in 1972, while unemployment expectations hit their highest since the Covid-19 pandemic. Respondents also said their financial outlook was the bleakest in four years, and inflation expectations rose."The miss was broad-based: the personal financial situation outlook fell sharply to -24 from -15, unemployment concerns jumped to 61 from 56, and savings capacity deteriorated," UBS markets analyst Nana Antiedu wrote in a note to clients earlier today.Bloomberg Economics commented on the dire outlook, saying, "Weak sentiment is likely to weigh on spending as political uncertainty increases. This brings further downside risks to our fourth-quarter growth forecast."France's mounting public debt is another concern and has become a major issue ahead of next April's presidential election after nearly a decade under President Emmanuel Macron, who is ending his term in crisis.Gilbert Cette, an economics professor at Neoma Business School in Paris, described the public debt as "enormous," adding, "France's entire economic policy is constrained by such a sizable debt level.”Cette said France has combined higher spending with tax cuts in recent years. That combination will likely have to be scaled back as Macron's successor confronts rising borrowing costs that compound the country's budget challenges and could usher in a period of austerity.Right-wing presidential candidate Marine Le Pen has released her https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/french-bonds-rally-le-pen-unveils-shadow-budget-pull-france-back-fiscal-brink, which promises €140 billion in cost savings over five years and aims to bring the deficit back below 3% by the end of the decade."If the French do not choose a political break, France is heading towards default," Le Pen recently said. She has also slammed Macron's successive governments for having failed "to anticipate the slightest economic, financial or budgetary policy capable of preventing the noose of interest payments from strangling France."Last Friday, France was spared a downgrade by credit rating agency Moody's, which maintained its sovereign rating at Aa3 with a negative outlook. This has offered short-term relief, with French 10-year government bond yields trending below 5%. But the France-Germany 10-year yield spread (https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/france-braces-moodys-downgrade-oat-bund-spread-hits-eu-crisis-level-highs) remains at 1.62 percentage points, or 162 basis points, a level last seen during the eurozone debt crisis. https://cms.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/Snag_3f31014b.pngFrance is not out of the woods just yet.

https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden
Tue, 10/27/2026 - 07:20

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/french-consumer-confidence-tanks-bond-crisis-far-left-riots-deepen-gloom

IEA Birol Warns Of No "Credible Pathway" Back To Pre-War ...

2026-10-27T10:55:00Z

IEA Birol Warns Of No "Credible Pathway" Back To Pre-War Energy Markets In 2027

IEA Birol Warns Of No "Credible Pathway" Back To Pre-War Energy Markets In 2027

IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol told the Singapore International Energy Week conference on Monday that global energy markets won't return to pre-war conditions in 2027 and that prolonged supply disruptions, especially of refined products such as diesel and jet fuel, will keep pressure on economies and threaten fuel availability heading into the Northern Hemisphere winter.

Great to be back in Singapore for #SIEW2026. Southeast Asia has been on the front line of today's energy crisis, but it can also be at the forefront of the solution. By building on a strong foundation of trust and cooperation, the region can write a new chapter in energy security.
— Fatih Birol (@fbirol) https://x.com/fbirol/status/2114545714743460120?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw

"I am afraid I don't see any credible pathway that the markets will go next year, where we were before this war has started," Birol told the conference, who https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/ieas-birol-does-not-expect-energy-markets-return-pre-war-levels-2027-2026-10-26/ quoted.

"So therefore, we all need to get prepared, taking the energy security as a number one priority in our government, business world, but without forgetting what is the next chapter for the countries and for companies that are all here today," he said.

Brent crude reached $117 a barrel Friday but, by Monday morning, was retracing last week's 6% rally as renewed diplomatic efforts provided some hope of de-escalation in the Gulf area. Brent is trading around $114 a barrel, although the growing risk of another round of US-Iran conflict could send crude much higher.

"Oil prices are flirting with $120 a barrel and the prices for products are even much higher," Birol said. He declined to forecast crude prices but warned that current levels were widening trade deficits and placing significant economic pressure on many countries.

Birol continued, "I am worried on top of that for refined products because we are entering...winter season. Some parts of the world, where typically diesel demand goes high and several refineries are going through maintenance period."

"In Europe, we are facing a tough winter because European countries have decided to cut gas imports from Russia and with the additional problem now rising from the Iran war, namely Qatar and the Emirates not being able to export gas as they were before, will put significant pressure on gas markets," he added.

Birol's warning on Monday follows a https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/no-quick-pump-relief-iea-warns-diesel-squeeze-will-persist-2027 stating that the "gasoil market balance will remain tight well into 2027 and is dependent on a recovery of product supply from the Middle East. Failing this, further demand reductions and the heavy economic costs these will entail may be needed to balance markets."

Goldman energy analyst Nikhil Bhandari https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/goldman-warns-nightmare-refining-crisis-could-prolong-diesel-gas-price-pain-through-2027 last month that a deepening refining crisis could extend pain at the pump for diesel and gasoline well into 2027.

In a separate note in September, Bank of America analysts said that a prolonged disruption in the Strait of Hormuz could send oil prices to $150 a barrel.

Beyond crude, Goldman's Daan Struyven warned last week that European natural gas prices could soar to 150 euros per megawatt-hour if Gulf disruptions persist. Prices are currently trading around 96 euros per megawatt-hour, their https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/eu-natgas-tops-2022-highs-goldman-warns-prices-could-rally-150-euros.

https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden
Tue, 10/27/2026 - 06:55

https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/iea-birol-warns-no-credible-pathway-back-pre-war-energy-markets-2027

This Is Easily The Most Stupid Thing Ever... This Is Easily The ...

2026-10-27T10:30:00Z

This Is Easily The Most Stupid Thing Ever...

This Is Easily The Most Stupid Thing Ever...

https://modernity.news/2026/10/25/this-is-easily-the-most-stupid-thing-ever/,

A Council official turned up at the home of YouTube pianist Brendan Kavanagh - better known as Dr K - to investigate his 12-year-old daughter Zoe's pretend teddy bear cafe for illegal trading.

Yes, really. Stuffed animals, toy tea sets, play money, and a handwritten "prices" sign in a family property triggered a formal Bedford Borough planning department visit after a complaint about an "illegal cafe."

Kavanagh filmed the arrival and the tour. The official showed ID outside, then walked through the setup of teddies around a table with cups and cakes. Obviously, no actual trading was happening with real customers. Just a child's game in a private home. Threatening letters had already arrived from the council's planning department.

For those of you who thought the visit from a Bedford Borough Council official to investigate our daughter Zoe's (age 12) pretend teddy bear cafe was too ridiculous to be real, here is the arrival of official. This is totally legit. She really did show up at our property to investigate the illegal teddy bears having their coffee??????
— Brendan Kavanagh (Dr K) (@brenkav) https://x.com/brenkav/status/2114105810020425855?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw

The official appeared to have done almost no homework. She referenced a website tied to the complaint but showed little grasp of what she was actually investigating or the basic facts before grilling the family at their own home. This is the same local authority environment that has previously sent multiple officers to the Kavanagh property.

Another crazy incident in our old house (now sold) - We got visited by an official from the planning department for Bedfordshire Borough Council Why? Because Zoe's (age 12) toy cafe got reported for illegal trading. I kid you not. We had to show the lady around our property to prove we weren't running an illegal operation.
— Brendan Kavanagh (Dr K) (@brenkav) https://x.com/brenkav/status/2114010581057343524?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw

Kavanagh is a pianist who specialises in improvised boogie-woogie mixed with blues, jazz, rock and roll and Irish themes. His YouTube channel has more than 2.6 million subscribers and over a billion views. He regularly plays public pianos, including the Elton John-donated instrument at St Pancras station, and livestreams the performances.

Those videos exploded after a January 2024 confrontation. A group of Chinese nationals waving flags and claiming "Chinese TV" representation demanded he stop filming them in a public place, threatened legal action over image rights, and accused him of racism when he pointed out "we're in public" and "we're not in Communist China."

Police were called. The clip went massively viral. Kavanagh later reported death threats and spent time keeping a low profile. He has framed such clashes as part of a broader culture war over free speech, public space and incompatible attitudes imported into Britain.

Leftist and authoritarian reactions have followed. He has been targeted over his traditional Latin mass chapel, set up in a barn after an appeal by composer James MacMillan, and over free-speech stands.

In April 2025 Bedfordshire Police arrested him and his wife Lorraine at home in front of their three children, then all under 14. Six officers, multiple vehicles, handcuffs, and a search that seized electronics worth thousands.

Hey, @JohnCleese, three police cars and six cops turned up to arrest us at home for social media crimes. After two months all charges were dropped....Such is life in modern Britain? https://t.co/HprCQJjetl
— Brendan Kavanagh (Dr K) (@brenkav) https://x.com/brenkav/status/2113332932844654936?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw

The trigger was a harassment complaint after the couple emailed other Catholic parents and a senior church figure about safeguarding concerns regarding a laicized deacon with prior child-abuse allegations abroad who had celebrated Mass at their private chapel.

The complainant alleged Kavanagh was "calling him a paedophile on social media" and urging followers to "beat him up." Kavanagh said the only evidence was three or four angry but non-violent emails. After two months on bail, all charges were dropped for lack of evidence.

No apology was offered. The children were left terrified. The couple is pursuing action against the force.

Six police surround myself and my wife and arrest us at home. This is from the police bodycam footage. We're currently taking action against Bedfordshire police for this outrageous arrest. Myself and my wife were clearly soft targets, not exactly hardened criminals but they handcuffed both anyway ...all charges dropped after a couple of months with no apology or explanation. The children were terrorised and they'll never trust the police again.
— Brendan Kavanagh (Dr K) (@brenkav) https://x.com/brenkav/status/2113662497416708437?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw

Kavanagh stated: "My wife and I were arrested and handcuffed in front of our children. Our children were terrified and did not understand what was going on." He added that police "did not even bother to check" the false claims, that "the low standard of evidence used to authorise such overkill is truly staggering," and that "if someone can claim their feelings are hurt, that is all that matters... The modern British police have truly become the 'hurty feelings' police."

Bedfordshire Police confirmed the numbers of officers, the searches, the bail, the eventual no-further-action decision, and that a review was underway.

The teddy-bear visit sits in the same pattern: resources directed at soft targets and trivial complaints while serious crime and illegal trading elsewhere continue.

Ignore the 'Turkish' barbers, vape shops, nail bars, takeaways, convenience stores and mobile phone shops. But perhaps you'll get a win and kudos from your boss for busting this White family's pretend shop, run by their child. https://t.co/9ft6Vbf14o
— TheEndOfEverything (@EternalEnglish) https://x.com/EternalEnglish/status/2114298299473875046?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw

Organise a teddy bear protest https://t.co/feDuFk0wDf
— Sue Pov The Day #XX | ???| #StopAntisemitism (@PovTheDay) https://x.com/PovTheDay/status/2114129152315928945?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw

What's next for UK bureaucracy - needing a council building permit for kids' Lego constructions indoors? https://t.co/VBpPhU2nbW
— TheRoadknight (@RoadknightThe) https://x.com/RoadknightThe/status/2114211490396045733?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw

British people are far too polite and therefore easily bullied by tyrants.

He should have said no, kicked her out and fought to the ends of the earth over it.

What you tolerate increases. https://t.co/kbgai90eLQ
— Bruce Fenton (@brucefenton) https://x.com/brucefenton/status/2114316444456665566?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw

It gets worse. Why has Britain become a tattle tale culture? https://t.co/XaTWJwCMGz
— Maitiú ÓRiagáin (@nymattregan) https://x.com/nymattregan/status/2114158703918329931?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw

Britain's authorities keep demonstrating the absurd depths the country has fallen to. Children's pretend cafes now draw more official attention than real disorder.

https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden
Tue, 10/27/2026 - 06:30

https://www.zerohedge.com/political/easily-most-stupid-thing-ever

MAGA At UN? Trump Admin Floats Viktor Orban For Secretary-General ...

2026-10-27T09:45:00Z

MAGA At UN? Trump Admin Floats Viktor Orban For Secretary-General

MAGA At UN? Trump Admin Floats Viktor Orban For Secretary-General

Viktor Orbán as Secretary-General of the United Nations?

The proposal was featured in an unexpected weekend Wall Street Journal headline. The publication reports that Trump administration officials are floating the former Hungarian prime minister as UN chief.

via Associated Press

The WSJ cites some degree of emerging support for this prospect, but it would certainly be met with immense pushback and controversy among many European and other countries.

The EU was of course long at loggerheads with Orban frequently during his prior four consecutive terms in office as Hungary's prime minister, which stretched all the way back to 2010. Most recently, it was a sole Hungarian veto that often held up more Ukraine funding.

The WSJ Editorial Board on Sunday wrote in https://www.wsj.com/opinion/viktor-orban-u-n-secretary-general-china-russia-us-d968fcaf... "You read that correctly. Sources from three countries confirm that the Trump Administration has advocated Viktor Orbán for the role of United Nations Secretary-General. The U.S. has encouraged the former Hungarian Prime Minister to enter the race, even bringing him the initial idea. The plan awaits a final decision."

Further, the outlet revealed the https://www.wsj.com/opinion/viktor-orban-u-n-secretary-general-china-russia-us-d968fcaf:

A Trump State Department official concedes that it sounds crazy at first. But Russia and China are believed to be supportive, based on prior conversations with Washington, and the plan would be for Mr. Orbán to be their joint candidate. As officials from the U.S. and a second country told us, when the U.S., Russia and China all want the same thing at the U.N. Security Council, they usually get it.

The State Department official counted eight Security Council votes “comfortably” for Mr. Orbán, and 10 within reach from the 15 council members. Would Britain and France then stand in the majority’s way? Those two are typically cautious in their use of the veto power.

Russia has had a lengthy good relationship with Orban, and he has been hosted in Moscow for one-on-one Putin meetings, even during the Ukraine war (the last time was Nov. 2025).

However, there are many countries - especially within the EU as well as among the Global South, which would harbor suspicions of any "Trump pick" as Secretary-General. They already perceive that Washington too often gets its way in term of Security Council vetoes and resolutions, particularly when it comes to protecting allies like Israel.

António Guterres concludes his second and final five-year term in the top UN office on December 31, 2026 - and so the scramble to put forth a replacement candidate is set to intensify in the coming months.

https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden
Tue, 10/27/2026 - 05:45

https://www.zerohedge.com/political/maga-un-trump-admin-floats-viktor-orban-secretary-general

Will Germany See Mass Riots On Halloween Night? ...

2026-10-27T09:00:00Z

Will Germany See Mass Riots On Halloween Night? 'France-Style' Protests Promoted Across Social Media

Will Germany See Mass Riots On Halloween Night? 'France-Style' Protests Promoted Across Social Media

https://rmx.news/article/will-germany-see-mass-riots-on-halloween-night-france-style-protests-promoted-across-social-media/,

With Halloween approaching on Oct. 31, German security authorities are intensifying preparations for planned youth protests in more than 20 cities, warning that the events could be overtaken by violent actors in patterns seen during recent mass unrest in France.

Many of the videos feature different social media influencers calling for French-style protests.

"On Oct. 31, we will all be on the streets. The French showed us how, now we're following suit," said one influencer who earned over 1 million views on TikTok.

"On Oct. 31, we will all be on the streets. The French showed us how, now we're following suit." Social media influencers are calling for French-style protests on Halloween night in Germany. There are now warnings from police of potential unrest. Stephan Weh, head of the Berlin branch of the police union (GdP), stated: "We must be extremely careful that radical forces do not co-opt democratic protest as in France, use it to live out fantasies of violence, abuse the freedom of assembly, and feed the narrative of a police force hostile to citizens." GdP national chairman Jochen Kopelke warned of "unpredictable" protests on Halloween night with a risk factor of "young riot migrants who feel like using violence against the police." Follow: @RMXnews
— Remix News & Views (@RMXnews) https://x.com/RMXnews/status/2114482358988538191?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw

Police union and political figures have issued a number of warnings. Stephan Weh, head of the Berlin branch of the police union (GdP), stated: "We must be extremely careful that radical forces do not co-opt democratic protest as in France, use it to live out fantasies of violence, abuse the freedom of assembly, and feed the narrative of a police force hostile to citizens."

He added that the Halloween night timing compounds risks, given the common use of pyrotechnics during the night.

The protests stem from an initiative known as "Gen Z steht auf," or "Gen Z stands up" in English, which has called for simultaneous demonstrations in Berlin, Hamburg, Munich, Cologne, Frankfurt, Leipzig, and others. Organizers, who report thousands of pre-registrations on their site, demand greater investment in education and health care, measures against rising living costs, climate action, and opposition to conscription.

Andreas Roßkopf of the GdP's federal police section promised that state and federal forces "will proceed massively and consistently" against any riots, warning of radicals mixing into the demonstrations to attack officers "with violence and brutality" or simply to destroy property.

Many videos have called for peaceful protests, but others have alluded to the potential for rioting or looting.

These plans have drawn sharp attention after the Oct. 17 protests across France, which saw demonstrations devolve into violent riots involving masked groups setting buildings ablaze, looting shops, clashing with police, and causing widespread damage.

Authorities reported well over 1,000 arrests and hundreds of injured officers. Further online calls for Halloween gatherings targeting public buildings have also circulated in France as well on platforms like TikTok and Instagram.

In Germany, the Federal Interior Ministry has confirmed ongoing risk assessments coordinated with partners including France and Italy, while the German domestic intelligence service (BfV) is increasing surveillance of relevant websites and social-media channels. A ministry spokesman noted the distinction between "peaceful student protests" and "a violence-prone extremist scene that potentially uses such protests to spread violence."

Hesse Interior Minister Roman Poseck (CDU) said authorities have the date "firmly in view" and that the protests are already being instrumentalized from the left spectrum. He emphasized that police will be strongly positioned, will not tolerate violence against persons or property, and must prevent France's situation from spilling over. Bavaria's Joachim Herrmann (CSU) urged that comparable tendencies "must be nipped in the bud," describing the French events not as student protests but as heavy riots involving left-extremists and predominantly migrant men in street battles, arson, and looting.

GdP national chairman Jochen Kopelke has highlighted unpredictability as the core problem of the Halloween protests, unlike more routine large events such as New Year's Eve, May 1, or football matches. Referring to reports from French colleagues, he described "street battles" and noted German precedents including the G20 in Hamburg and scenes in Leipzig-Connewitz and Berlin's Rigaer Straße. He warned of possible simultaneous, digitally mobilized demonstrations across multiple German and European cities, and of "young riot migrants who are included to use violence against the police." Such actors, he said, "must be kept in check and can expect no mercy from us." Manuel Ostermann of the federal police union has cautioned that multi-day unrest with ugly images and possibly brutal violence cannot be ruled out, while insisting German forces are better prepared than their French counterparts and will permit no lawless zones.

https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden
Tue, 10/27/2026 - 05:00

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/will-germany-see-mass-riots-halloween-night-france-style-protests-promoted-across

Europe Plans To Copy Trump's Critical Material Playbook ...

2026-10-27T08:15:00Z

Europe Plans To Copy Trump's Critical Material Playbook

Europe Plans To Copy Trump's Critical Material Playbook

Brussels is looking to borrow President Trump's playbook to make "rare earths great again" in the West, with proposals to take equity stakes in miners and support new critical material projects. The move aims to break an alarming dependency that has given Beijing massive leverage over Western industry and trade negotiations, particularly through China's dominance of rare earth processing, refining, and permanent magnet production.

https://www.ft.com/content/cfb2e934-0000-42e6-93a4-4dffa56f11a8?syn-25a6b1a6=1#comments-anchor reports that members of the European Parliament voted last week to propose a new agency called the "Critical Raw Materials Center" that would invest in critical material supply chains to bolster the continent's ability to mine and refine ore domestically. The new measure still requires approval from member states.

The Critical Raw Materials Centre would receive 2 billion euros under the EU's next long-term budget to make critical investments in the mining sector, similar to what the Trump administration has done over the last 1.5 years.

For instance, President Trump's deal with rare earths producer MP Materials had the Pentagon commit $400 million for a 15% stake, alongside a $150 million loan and a 10-year agreement establishing a minimum price of $110 per kilogram for neodymium-praseodymium, used in permanent magnets.

The MP Materials agreement is one of many deals the Trump administration has completed to restore America's domestic supply chains for critical materials and break its alarming addiction to China, which will likely https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/chinas-critical-materials-chokehold-sparks-western-supply-scramble-first-deliver-could.

Looking at rare earth stocks, we penned a note last week outlining a "great rare earth disconnect," as supply shortages persisted and spot prices remained elevated, but these stocks have been battered over the last several months.

Latest on miners:

- https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/great-rare-earth-disconnect-prices-23-miners-down-28

- https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/rare-earth-stocks-hit-52-week-low-william-blair-says-china-supply-optimism-incorrect

Well, well, well. Is Brussels finally getting smarter?

https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden
Tue, 10/27/2026 - 04:15

https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/europe-plans-copy-trumps-critical-material-playbook

What's The Real Importance Of Putin's Recent Prediction ...

2026-10-27T07:30:00Z

What's The Real Importance Of Putin's Recent Prediction Of The EU's Inevitable Collapse?

What's The Real Importance Of Putin's Recent Prediction Of The EU's Inevitable Collapse?

https://korybko.substack.com/p/whats-the-real-importance-of-putins,

The salience isn't whether he truly believes it, but whether his Foreign Ministry and intelligence services politicize their assessments of this scenario to conform to what they think he wants to hear, which would go against what he earlier said about the need to abandon wishful thinking.

Putin http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/80910#sel=288:1:IOS,289:15:4oq at the Valdai Club's annual summit in early October that "they will fall apart without any help from us" in response to a question about whether Russia "should just go ahead and break [the EU] up, so it is easier to deal with individual countries" due to the bloc's bans on building ties with Russia. This was popularly interpreted among many "https://korybko.substack.com/p/the-institute-for-the-study-and-support"; (NRPRs) as a serious prediction despite the lighthearted context in which it was clearly being asked due to these folks' wishful thinking.

Putin's words are treated as gospel whenever they align with whatever many NRPRs want to have happen and casually dismissed as part of a "5D chess master plan" to "psyche out" his opponents whenever they go against their expectations like his https://web.archive.org/web/20231008133800/https:/orientalreview.su/2018/05/10/president-putin-on-israel-quotes-from-the-kremlin-website/. As regards the particular example of the EU falling apart, there are objective reasons why serious folks have discussed this scenario, but Putin referencing it doesn't ipso facto mean that he himself truly believes it.

Putin represents the country that poses the greatest challenge to the West due to their proxy war in Ukraine, which is qualitatively different than the economic challenge that China poses. While China's economic growth poses a long-term systemic challenge, China's complex economic, financial, and supply chain interdependence with the West https://korybko.substack.com/p/why-wont-china-cut-ukraine-off-from, unlike the strategic autonomy that empowers Russia to wage its years-long proxy war with the West.

Putin is aware of this as well as the way in which his words are interpreted by foreign governments and societies alike. It therefore can't be taken for granted that he always believes his dramatic proclamations since they might be shared for ulterior reasons such as influencing those audiences. To be clear, this doesn't mean that Putin is lying in the example of him predicting that the EU will inevitably collapse since he might lend some credence to that scenario, just that there might be more to it than just that.

What's most important isn't what Putin himself believes, however, but whether his Foreign Ministry and intelligence services shape their assessments of this scenario in a way that conforms to what they might think (whether correctly or incorrectly) is what he believes and thus maybe wants. It's assumed that Russia's global media ecosystem will present such a picture to their audiences, but if the aforesaid institutions present it to Putin out of a misguided desire to please him, then it could cause problems.

The self-interested politicization of Russia's already troubled feedback loops, which are arguably responsible to a large degree for the country's spree of foreign policy setbacks under Trump 2.0's https://thealtworld.com/andrew_korybko/trumps-neo-reagan-doctrine-is-rolling-back-russian-influence-across-the-world, could lead to the formulation of ineffective policies. If the EU's supposedly inevitable collapse serves as the premise for formulating policy towards Europe, then Russia might not only lose opportunities, but this misjudgment could lead to mistakes that ultimately worsen Russia's interests.

The salience of Putin's prediction therefore isn't whether he truly believes it, but whether his Foreign Ministry and intelligence services politicize their assessments of this scenario to conform to what they think he wants to hear, which would go against what he earlier said at Valdai's event. He http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/80910#sel=61:1:Do3,61:85:63j against https://voiceofeast.net/2022/07/03/president-putin-cautioned-russian-strategic-forecasters-against-indulging-in-wishful-thinking/ and called for "realistic assessments". Unlike what he said about the EU, there's no reason not to take those words at face value, and hopefully those who need to do so will.

https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden
Tue, 10/27/2026 - 03:30

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/whats-real-importance-putins-recent-prediction-eus-inevitable-collapse

Trans Activists Want Harry Potter Christmas Lights Pulled Over ...

2026-10-27T06:45:00Z

Trans Activists Want Harry Potter Christmas Lights Pulled Over Rowling - And Sadiq Khan Won't Touch It

Trans Activists Want Harry Potter Christmas Lights Pulled Over Rowling - And Sadiq Khan Won't Touch It

More than 10,000 people have emailed London Mayor Sadiq Khan asking him to cancel Harry Potter-themed Christmas lights on Oxford Street, https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2026/10/25/trans-campaigners-petition-harry-potter-lights-jkrowling/ reported Sunday, and the company that runs the display is going ahead with them. The Good Law Project, which launched the campaign, says the lights "will not make trans people feel Christmassy, welcome, or safe." Its https://action.goodlawproject.org/sadiq-khan-pull-the-plug-on-transphobia showed 10,312 emails sent as of this writing.

Oxford Street Christmas Lights (not AI!) Photograph: BBA Photography/Shutterstock.com

The lights are a tie-in for HBO's new Harry Potter series, which https://www.timeout.com/london/news/oxford-street-christmas-lights-2026-harry-potter-100726 reports is an eight-episode adaptation of Philosopher's Stone premiering Christmas Day. The display is a partnership between HBO Max and the New West End Company, the body that organizes Oxford Street's lights. A Harry Potter flagship store opens on the street on Nov. 4.

The group's objection is Rowling. Its petition says Khan presents himself as an ally of the trans community and asks: "So why is he allowing one of the most famous anti-trans people in the world to take over Oxford Street?" It also says Rowling "has promised she'll use some of the money from the new Harry Potter series to fund the anti-trans rights movement."

That last claim is the campaigners' own framing. What Rowling has announced is the https://thepinknews.com/2025/05/26/jk-rowling-womens-fund-explainer, set up in May 2025 and financed from her own money, which says it backs people and groups "fighting to retain women's sex-based rights," including in "protected female spaces." The fund is not a charity and does not accept donations.

Khan's office says it's not within the purview of his office - telling the Telegraph that the mayor does not arrange the Christmas lights on Oxford Street, the New West End Company does, and added: "The Mayor is clear that he will always support and champion all of London's diverse communities, including trans and non-binary Londoners." City Hall https://www.localgov.co.uk/Petition-urges-Khan-to-scrap-Harry-Potter-Christmas-lights-over-transphobia-/65071 when the petition launched on Oct. 9, saying the lights are "a matter for the New West End Company and local businesses." The company is keeping its plans, according to the https://dailysceptic.org/2026/10/26/trans-activists-launch-petition-against-harry-potter-christmas-lights.

The Good Law Project lost in court earlier this year. In February, a High Court judge https://www.landmarkchambers.co.uk/news-and-cases/cases/high-court-hands-down-judgment-in-challenge-to-ehrc-trans-interim-guidance it permission to challenge the Equality and Human Rights Commission's interim guidance on single-sex spaces for lack of standing, and dismissed the claim brought by the three individual claimants who joined it.

The lights are a tie-in for HBO’s new Harry Potter series

https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden
Tue, 10/27/2026 - 02:45

https://www.zerohedge.com/political/trans-activists-want-harry-potter-christmas-lights-pulled-over-rowling-and-sadiq-khan

'Everyone Here Is Very Optimistic' - Germans Are ...

2026-10-27T06:00:00Z

'Everyone Here Is Very Optimistic' - Germans Are Increasingly Emigrating To Poland

'Everyone Here Is Very Optimistic' - Germans Are Increasingly Emigrating To Poland

https://rmx.news/article/everyone-here-is-very-optimistic-germans-are-increasingly-emigrating-to-poland/,

Nearly 5,000 Germans emigrated to Poland in 2025, outpacing the numbers who left for Britain, Italy or the Netherlands, according to new government data.

Figures from Germany's Federal Statistical Office (https://www.destatis.de/DE/Presse/Pressemitteilungen/2026/06/PD26_184_12411.html) showed 4,941 people moved from Germany to Poland last year, the highest total since the coronavirus pandemic. At the same time, only 1,720 moved in the opposite direction. The resulting negative migration balance for Germany was highlighted by financial daily https://www.handelsblatt.com/politik/international/migration-warum-immer-mehr-deutsche-ihr-glueck-in-polen-suchen/100249315.html reporter Christian Wermke, who asked: "Why are more and more Germans moving across the Oder? What exactly works better in the Polish economy than in Germany? And what could we learn from our eastern neighbor so as not to permanently lose skilled workers?"

???Poland features 5 amazing swimming pools just outside Kraków, in Zakrzówek. German Youtuber @freiformation appears to prefer Poland to Germany when it comes to swimming. "No groping, no harassment, just families, children, girls, women, men, all peaceful." https://t.co/r3cGmXnsMT
— Remix News & Views (@RMXnews) https://x.com/RMXnews/status/1970021494894801371?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw

Kevin Wörner, a 33-year-old who relocated from Berlin to Warsaw, and whose mother is Polish, told the newspaper there is "an incredible sense of a new beginning here. Everyone here is very optimistic."

He contrasted that atmosphere with conversations among friends in Germany, where "it just gets you down." Wörner cited lower taxes, less bureaucracy, stronger digitalization, and a more business-friendly environment as practical advantages, saying he had the impression "everything is a bit simpler here and more conducive to entrepreneurship."

The trend also comes at a time when more and more Western European visiting Poland have made remarks about how safe the country is, how there is a lack of migrants, and how much better of a lifestyle the country offers.

???? A young French-speaking woman traveling in Poland describes how shocked she is to finally not be catcalled and harassed. "It's when you come to countries like Poland that you realize there are really problems with our countries, like Belgium or France." "Whether it's Brussels, Liège, or slightly bigger cities like that, I would always get catcalled, honked at, harassed... really, everything you can think of." "And now I'm in Krakow, Poland, and it's been two days that I've been walking around in this outfit, and I get absolutely no comments, no stares - like, only respect." Follow: @RMXnews
— Remix News & Views (@RMXnews) https://x.com/RMXnews/status/2075122727799628248?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw

Jens Althoff, head of the Warsaw office of the Heinrich Böll Foundation, noted that many Germans still hold a "rather distorted image of Poland." He pointed to ongoing infrastructure investment, high levels of digitalization, punctual trains, and well-maintained stations as visible differences.

Althoff also observed that younger Poles often emphasize achievement and implementation over the work-life balance discussions common in Germany.

???? After returning from Poland, French journalist @YOANNUSAI said: "It's true that after coming back from certain countries to France, you can say to yourself: 'My God, what have they done to our country?'" "And it's true that Poland is still Poland, while France is no longer France. The reality is this. The Poland of 40 years ago is the same as the Poland of today. France today is nothing like the France of 40 years ago. And immigration, of course, is partly responsible for this." Many Western Europeans have the same reaction after returning from Poland, which still has basically the same demographics as 40 years ago. Poland is also a vastly safer country for women on the streets. "Finally, in Poland, young girls go out freely, without fear. Obviously, in Poland, there are young girls who are dressed however they want to be dressed. They don't censor themselves, which is no longer the case in France. I had to go out on a Saturday night in Paris, and a lot of young girls self-censor how they dress. This is not the case in Poland, as I have seen. You can walk freely around Warsaw at any time of day or night without worrying about your safety, which is not even the case for me in Paris, as a man, OK? I'm afraid for my own safety at certain hours in some neighborhoods of Paris."
— Remix News & Views (@RMXnews) https://x.com/RMXnews/status/2019366152443449834?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw

Other interviewees mentioned Polish digital tools such as the BLIK mobile payment system and the mObywatel government app as examples of efficiency that stand out to newcomers. Handelsblatt's reporting appeared amid broader German media coverage noting Poland's economic growth and infrastructure improvements, even as some outlets have described ongoing operational difficulties on the German rail network.

The Destatis figures place Poland among the top destinations for German emigrants in 2025, behind Switzerland, Austria and Spain but ahead of several Western European countries. The newspaper framed the trend as a potential signal for German policymakers concerned about retaining skilled workers, while noting that overall German emigration remains highest to neighboring German-speaking countries, such as Austria.

This development also comes amid an already ongoing trend of https://rmx.news/poland/poles-are-moving-back-to-poland-as-germany-becomes-a-failed-state/.

https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden
Tue, 10/27/2026 - 02:00

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/everyone-here-very-optimistic-germans-are-increasingly-emigrating-poland

UK Must Be Ready For War In 1,000 Days, Says British Defense ...

2026-10-27T03:50:00Z

UK Must Be Ready For War In 1,000 Days, Says British Defense Secretary

UK Must Be Ready For War In 1,000 Days, Says British Defense Secretary

https://www.theepochtimes.com/world/uk-must-be-ready-for-war-in-1000-days-says-british-defense-secretary-6108783?utm_source=partner&utm_campaign=ZeroHedge,British Defense Secretary Wes Streeting has said the country must be ready for war in 1,000 days, after the government advised citizens to stock up on essential supplies.

Writing in the Telegraph over the weekend, Streeting warned that the UK's enemies could be ready to launch an attack on the UK by 2030.He wrote: "Our adversaries' willingness to harm us is not new. What has changed is their capacity. By 2030, their force strength and war economy could put them in a position to attack."That gives us a little over 1,000 days to complete our mission: to be ready with our allies to fight and win."Streeting said the danger may not come through conventional military action, warning that hybrid war tactics - such as disrupting technology or disinformation campaigns - also pose a threat.'Sabotage and Hostile Acts'"The gravest dangers of the 20th century are returning, armed with the technologies of the 21st. But the threat to Britain is not simply one of conventional warfare, or Russian tanks rolling across our borders. It is also the growing threat of state-sponsored terrorism, sabotage, and hostile acts designed to disrupt our lives, undermine our security and spread fear in our communities," he said.Streeting, who was appointed defense secretary in July by Labour Prime Minister Andy Burnham, added: "To prevent the worst, we have to prepare for it. In the first instance, that means expanding our capabilities so our adversaries think twice about attacking us. Should that fail, we must ensure that Britain is ready for war."Streeting told Parliament on Oct. 19, "Terms such as 'hybrid threats' and 'grey zone' fail to convey adequately the seriousness of Russia's widespread campaign of what I prefer to call state-sponsored terrorism, which it is inflicting across our continent," adding that he expected the situation to continue.The defense secretary, who does not have a military background, added, "We are not at war with Russia, nor do we seek confrontation, but Russia should be in no doubt that we are ready to defend every inch of NATO territory and that we will not be deterred in our unwavering support for Ukraine."Streeting's comments to the Telegraph were issued following the launch of a government campaign on Oct.22 to prepare the country for a potential breakdown in essential services.Brits are being urged to stock nine liters of bottled water and three days' worth of food to ensure that they can survive in the event of a weather, cyber, or other critical emergency.Parents with babies are advised to keep a supply of essential products, while all households are urged to have blankets, cash, a first-aid kit, a flashlight with batteries, and a wind-up FM radio.'Not About Panicking'In an interview with BBC Radio 5, Burnham was challenged over the fact that members of his own government appeared not to be treating the advice to prepare for emergencies seriously, including Housing Secretary Angela Rayner.She joked in an interview with Times Radio that her emergency box would include mascara, concealer, a bottle of white wine, baked beans, and a tin of custard.The prime minister told the BBC he would personally stock up on canned goods, including baked beans and soup, as well as Twiglets, a crispy snack.Burnham said: "It's not about panicking. ... It's about just taking sensible measures to have enough in the house to tide you over should there be a difficult situation," adding that unexpected events, "sadly, in the world that we're in, are becoming more likely."Earlier this month, Sir Ken McCallum, the director general of domestic intelligence agency MI5, called for a "whole-of-society effort" to protect the UK against threats to national infrastructure, warning that hostile states could exploit vulnerabilities in the country's financial systems, energy grids, and supply chains.Russia 'Aggressor Number One'Speaking on Oct. 13, McCallum said the risks were likely to persist in a more contested geopolitical environment compared with the relative stability after the Cold War ended.He said that Russia "remains aggressor number one," and that the Kremlin "continues to lash out at the UK and its allies."The MI5 chief said the Russian military and intelligence services were "once again escalating their attempts at hybrid warfare - being careful to stay below the NATO Article V threshold [that] it would be foolish for them to cross.""This means Russia is using tactics that stop short - though sometimes not much short - of conventional conflict," he said."To stand up to the pressure our adversaries are trying to put us under, we need to build a 'team of teams,' not just between different bits of government, but as a true whole-of-society effort."McCallum warned that infrastructure designed for efficiency could be vulnerable to malicious disruption. He gave examples including a banking-app hack that could lock people out of their accounts, a drone attack on an airport runway leaving travelers stranded, and a cyberattack on a local hospital, delaying treatment.

https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden
Mon, 10/26/2026 - 23:50

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/uk-must-be-ready-war-1000-days-says-british-defense-secretary

One Big Club Update: Judge Rules DOJ Unlawfully Fired Epstein ...

2026-10-27T03:25:00Z

One Big Club Update: Judge Rules DOJ Unlawfully Fired Epstein Prosecutor Maurene Comey, Orders Her Reinstated

One Big Club Update: Judge Rules DOJ Unlawfully Fired Epstein Prosecutor Maurene Comey, Orders Her Reinstated

A federal judge ruled Monday that the Justice Department unlawfully fired Maurene Comey, the former Manhattan federal prosecutor who worked on the Jeffrey Epstein and Ghislaine Maxwell cases and the daughter of ex-FBI Director James Comey, and ordered her reinstated retroactively with back pay.
https://assets.zerohedge.com/s3fs-public/inline-images/maurene%20comey_0.JPG
https://assets.zerohedge.com/s3fs-public/inline-images/maurene%20comey_0.JPG

U.S. District Judge Jesse Furman, in a 55-page decision, found that her removal violated the Civil Service Reform Act and the constitutional separation of powers, https://www.cbsnews.com/news/maurene-comey-lawsuit-firing-justice-department-ruling/. The back pay runs from her July 2025 firing through Dec. 20, 2025, when she accepted a different job.Furman rejected the government's central argument that the attorney general can fire a career prosecutor at will. He wrote that the administration was trying to "upend" long-settled case law allowing Congress to regulate the removal of inferior officers, called the Justice Department's position a "sweeping and unprecedented theory of executive authority," and warned that accepting it would "unsettle the very equilibrium" of the constitutional system.He also refused to let a later sign-off cure the firing. The administration said in May that then-Attorney General Pam Bondi "directed" the removal and that her successor, Todd Blanche, "ratified" it. Furman held that the ratification did not save it.The government's own record undercut it. In court, DOJ admitted Comey had "outstanding" performance ratings from 2019 through 2024. According to https://thedailybeast.com/maucomeys-daughter-hands-her-dads-tormentor-a-humiliating-defeat, Furman said the reasoning for the firing "borders on frivolous," and that he will issue a declaration that DOJ violated the separation of powers, the Civil Service Reform Act, the First Amendment and the Fifth Amendment's Due Process Clause.Nobody ever told her why. Comey said she was "summarily fired via memo" from DOJ headquarters in Washington; the letter cited Article II of the Constitution and said her employment was "hereby terminated." Jay Clayton, then the interim U.S. attorney for the Southern District of New York, told her, "All I can say is it came from Washington. I can't tell you anything else," per the Daily Beast.The government had also argued that she had to take her claims to the Merit Systems Protection Board. Furman rejected that because the firing rested on Article II rather than on a civil service law, which put the case in federal court. He made the same call in April, when he https://wtop.com/national/2026/04/judge-rules-that-fired-prosecutor-maurene-comeys-lawsuit-belongs-in-federal-court/ in his courtroom and left the merits for later.A Justice Department spokesperson said the department "disagrees with this decision and will appeal in due course." Comey's lawyers called the ruling a "hard-earned victory" for her and for civil servants, saying it reaffirms that "the President is not above the law."Comey had been a federal prosecutor in Manhattan since 2015. Besides Epstein and Maxwell, she handled cases against Sean "Diddy" Combs and former Sen. Robert Menendez. Her firing came in July 2025, and https://www.zerohedge.com/political/doj-fires-james-comeys-daughter-who-handled-epstein-and-maxwell-cases then.The suit alleges she was fired because of her father or her perceived politics. James Comey, a Trump critic, has been indicted twice in the second Trump term. One case, charging him with lying to Congress, was thrown out after a judge ruled the indictment was illegally obtained. In the other, he is charged over a deleted Instagram post of seashells arranged as "86 47," and his lawyers have https://www.zerohedge.com/political/comey-attorneys-seek-dismissal-indictment-over-86-47-instagram-post, arguing it is protected political speech and a vindictive prosecution. He denies wrongdoing.The Justice Department says it will appeal, so the reinstatement may not stick. In court it leaned on a statute letting the attorney general remove assistant U.S. attorneys, and on the Supreme Court's June decision allowing the president to fire members of certain independent agencies at will. Furman called those arguments "without merit," per the Daily Beast.A Brief TimelineMaurene Comey becamse a US attorney in the Southern District of New York in 2015.In 2019, when she was just 30-years-old, Comey became one of the lead prosecutors in the Jeffrey Epstein case before he was found dead in his jail cell in August 2019.Two years later, she became one of three https://www.businessinsider.com/maurene-comey-james-comey-daughter-leading-jeffrey-epstein-case-2019-7 in the trial of Ghislaine Maxwell, Epstein's partner in crime and daughter of suspected Mossad operative https://x.com/basedspinach/status/1895205597718683709. Before becoming a US attorney, Comey clerked for US District Court chief judge Loretta Preska of the SDNY - who notably oversaw a long-running https://www.businessinsider.com/virginia-giuffre-lawsuit-led-to-criminal-case-ghislaine-maxwell-epstein-2021-11 filed by Epstein victim Virginia Giuffre against Maxwell.Comey was also involved in the case of Nicholas Tartaglione, a former NYPD officer who was convicted of killing four men in 2016, and who was briefly Epstein's cellmate in the Manhattan Metro Correctional Center. Tartaglione claims to have https://www.nydailynews.com/2019/07/26/jeffrey-epsteins-ex-cop-cellmate-says-he-saved-multimillionaire-sex-offender-from-hanging-source/ after 'finding him unconscious' (and totally not trying to kill him) prior to Epstein's actual death. 2016, Tartaglione suspected a man named Martin Luna had stolen money from him - for which "Tartaglione tortured Martin and then forced one of Martin’s nephews to watch as he strangled him to death with a zip-tie," according to a https://www.justice.gov/usao-sdny/pr/statement-us-attorney-damian-williams-conviction-nicholas-tartaglione by the US Attorney's Office.Two days after Epstein's death, https://www.nytimes.com/2019/08/12/business/jeffrey-epstein-interview.html# reporter James B Stewart, who had spent 90 minutes with Epstein a year prior, wrote "The overriding impression I took away from our roughly 90-minute conversation was that Mr. Epstein knew an astonishing number of rich, famous and powerful people, and had photos to prove it. He also claimed to know a great deal about these people, some of it potentially damaging or embarrassing, including details about their supposed sexual proclivities and recreational drug use.And so, whether this is just a case of 'it's a small world' or something a little (or a lot) less innocent, James Comey's daughter is now involved in a second case where high-profile celebrities and politicians may have been secretly filmed engaging in sexual activity with minors.THIS is what https://twitter.com/Comey?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw and his daughter are hiding in New York. https://t.co/tocnjabzj6— DOC (@doctormalibu) https://twitter.com/doctormalibu/status/1895500628430110881?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw* * *For your consideration from https://store.zerohedge.com/:
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Mon, 10/26/2026 - 23:25

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On Election Eve, Israeli Opposition Says Netanyahu Must Face ...

2026-10-27T02:35:00Z

On Election Eve, Israeli Opposition Says Netanyahu Must Face Treason Probe

On Election Eve, Israeli Opposition Says Netanyahu Must Face Treason Probe

On the eve of Israel's high pressure legislative elections, the explosive and provocative charge of "treason" is being thrown around.Former Israeli Finance Minister Avigdor Liberman on Monday called for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu be criminally investigated for the charge of treason, accusing him of fomenting a foreign war for the sole purpose of extending his and Likud's party's rule.

"This morning, I appealed to the Attorney General demanding the opening of a criminal investigation against Benjamin Netanyahu for the charge of treason," Liberman wrote on X."In the past month, Israel's Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, has been pressuring the heads of the security establishment to take steps that could create a miscalculation vis-à-vis Iran."In essence, he's accusing Netanyahu was trying to drag Israel into a war just before the upcoming elections - not on legitimate national security grounds, but for personal political gain."The attempt to drag the State of Israel into war on the eve of elections, together with the willingness to sacrifice IDF soldiers solely due to fear of losing the elections, constitutes treason against the state, its security, and the IDF soldiers," the post concluded.The Guardian reviews of the https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/oct/26/netanyahu-reportedly-pressured-israel-military-attack-iran-runup-to-election:Israel’s Channel 12 news reported that the prime minister and the armed forces chief of staff, Lt Gen Eyal Zamir, clashed in recent days over a directive to the military which could “potentially spark an immediate conflagration with Iran at a very sensitive juncture”, by provoking a miscalculation by Iran.https://assets.zerohedge.com/s3fs-public/inline-images/image%20%2824%29_11.pngNetanyahu has vehemently denied the charge.President Trump has meanwhile written no less than two glowing endorsements of Netanyahu on his Truth Social platform. The posts tout that Netanyahu is a "Great Warrior Prime Minister" and that he can help the US "finish the job" against Iran.Polls have shown that entering Tuesday's elections Netanyahu remains neck and neck with former Israel Defense Forces Chief of Staff Gadi Eisenkot.?? Gadi Eisenkot calls Netanyahu DELUSIONAL over Iran nuclear claims He claims the PM knew all along that the regime didn't have nuclear weapons despite using the threat to justify military escalation. With Israel heading into its first nationwide election since October 7, polling show Eisenkot's party leading Likud 23 seats to 19 ? Writer: Bri https://t.co/rJDq1ySORS— Mario Nawfal (@MarioNawfal) https://x.com/MarioNawfal/status/2114772798103003258?ref_src=twsrc%5EtfwThis will be a hugely significant test of public sentiment on Netanyahu's leadership, given it will be the first national vote since Oct. 7, 2023 Hamas attacks and ensuing major war in Gaza.

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Mon, 10/26/2026 - 22:35

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/election-eve-israeli-opposition-says-netanyahu-must-face-treason-probe

Ninth Circuit Upholds Block On Trump's Federalization Of ...

2026-10-27T02:10:00Z

Ninth Circuit Upholds Block On Trump's Federalization Of California National Guard, Rejecting "Rebellion" Claim

Ninth Circuit Upholds Block On Trump's Federalization Of California National Guard, Rejecting "Rebellion" Claim

The U.S. 9th Circuit Court of Appeals on October 23 affirmed a district court order blocking President Donald Trump's June 2025 federalization of 4,000 California National Guard troops for Los Angeles, ruling 2-1 that neither statute the administration relied on covered it. https://oag.ca.gov/system/files/attachments/press-docs/op-affirming-pi.pdf, filed October 23, says the order "exceeded the President's statutory authority and encroached on Congress's calling forth power," which made it "ultra vires and unconstitutional."

California National Guard members and Marines hold back demonstrators during a protest June 14, 2025, in Los Angeles.

Sung, a Biden appointee, was joined by Judge Eric Miller, a Trump appointee, who wrote separately only to say the government forfeited its argument that no cause of action exists. Judge Mark Bennett, also a Trump nominee, dissented. https://www.military.com/trumps-national-guard-deployment-in-california-illegal-federal-appeals-court-rules reported that the Justice Department did not respond to its request for comment.The panel's own June 2025 stay order had found Trump likely acted within 10 U.S.C. § 12406(3), which lets a president federalize the Guard when he is "unable with the regular forces to execute the laws." That changed after the Supreme Court's https://www.scotusblog.com/2025/12/supreme-court-rejects-trumps-effort-to-deploy-national-guard-in-illinois in Trump v. Illinois, decided over dissents from Justices Samuel Alito, Clarence Thomas and Neil Gorsuch. Under that ruling, a president must first show he has authority to use the regular military to execute the laws, and that he is unable to with those forces. The panel held the administration made neither showing.That left the administration's fallback, § 12406(2), which covers "a rebellion or danger of a rebellion against the authority of the Government of the United States." Relying on dictionaries from when the statute was written, the court read rebellion as "a violent, armed, organized, open and avowed uprising against the government as a whole," not opposition to a single law or policy. It noted that an 1897 dictionary set rebellion apart from insurrection, which it said may be "a rising in opposition to a particular act or law."The panel did not wave away the violence. It cited the district court's findings that on June 6 about 800 protesters gathered at two sites, with some throwing concrete chunks and bottles at federal officers, and that on June 7 protesters in Paramount and Compton set a vehicle on fire, looted a gas station and threw a Molotov cocktail. About 11 people were arrested that night. By June 8 the crowd had grown to about 3,500, and at least 42 were arrested.Even so, the court found "no evidence of organized, as apart from sporadic or impromptu, violence" and no evidence, as of the June 12 hearing, "of any protesters carrying firearms." Hundreds of civilian law enforcement officers, including a team trained for civil unrest, had brought the early clashes under control. Quoting the district court, the panel said the protesters "gathered to protest a single issue - the immigration raids." A rebellion finding on that record, it concluded, fell outside a "range of honest judgment."Bennett's dissent is mostly procedural. After the Supreme Court acted, the administration moved on January 23 to dismiss its own appeal; the panel denied that motion in a separate order. Bennett argued the court should have granted it and instead relied on "outdated briefs prepared amid a shifting legal landscape." He also warned that the published opinion "will bind future three-judge panels, absent intervening precedent from the Supreme Court or an en banc panel," and said California's Tenth Amendment claim, which the parties "barely briefed," is unlikely to succeed.The ruling matters mainly as precedent, because the troops are already home. California's attorney general says that after the Supreme Court's decision the administration let the district court's order take effect, returning command to Gov. Gavin Newsom. Two other pieces of the fight are on separate appeals: Judge Charles Breyer's September 2025 permanent injunction under the Posse Comitatus Act, which followed a https://www.zerohedge.com/political/trial-begins-over-trumps-use-national-guard-california, and his December 10, 2025 injunction against the extensions of the federalization.Newsom called it "a crucial day for the rule of law," and Attorney General Rob Bonta called the deployment "a clear example of federal overreach," in statements Military.com carried and https://oag.ca.gov/news/press-releases/attorney-general-bonta-celebrates-ninth-circuit-ruling-upholding-order-against published.

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Mon, 10/26/2026 - 22:10

https://www.zerohedge.com/political/ninth-circuit-upholds-block-trumps-federalization-california-national-guard-rejecting

Former Trump, Obama Advisers Jointly Urge Data Center Regulation ...

2026-10-27T01:45:00Z

Former Trump, Obama Advisers Jointly Urge Data Center Regulation Middle Ground

Former Trump, Obama Advisers Jointly Urge Data Center Regulation Middle Ground

https://www.theepochtimes.com/us/former-trump-obama-advisers-jointly-urge-data-center-regulation-middle-ground-6108634?utm_source=partner&utm_campaign=ZeroHedge,Former economic advisers from the Obama and Trump administrations have issued a roadmap for what they see as a way forward on future data center construction across America.https://assets.zerohedge.com/s3fs-public/inline-images/id6106952-2026-10-21T055840Z_2_L.jpgDemocrat Robert Wolf and Republican Stephen Moore pitched a "bipartisan framework" to navigate the current controversies surrounding AI data centers in a report released last week.They call for a middle ground approach based on federal guidelines that address five key areas, including ratepayer protection, energy security, environmental stewardship, transparency and community engagement, and local authority over land use."America should neither surrender data center development to a regulatory free-for-all nor freeze it through blanket moratoriums," the advisers say.Some aspects of their pitch are at odds with ideas that President Donald Trump has shared as he stumps for candidates around the country."The only reason that communities throughout the U.S.A. should not want Data Centers is if they want to end up being backwards and poor," Trump wrote in an Aug. 31 Truth Social post that the report highlights."If they want to be successful and rich, with far lower taxes and jobs all over the place, let Data Reign."Trump also wants to use the federal government's public lands for future data centers, in response to successful efforts by many community activists to halt data center projects in other areas.Wolf and Moore label the lack of a regulatory framework for data centers as the "Wild West" approach, which forms part of the title of the policy paper: "Beyond the 'Wild West' and Moratorium: A Bipartisan Framework for Smart and Responsible Data Center Investment."They offer some words in defense of the "Wild West" approach while ultimately disagreeing with it. It has worked well in the past, such as for the development of the internet, the report says.Wolf and Moore point out that Congress and President Bill Clinton used a "relatively light-touch regulatory framework for the emerging digital economy," giving some evidence of the benefits of that approach."Over the following decades, American companies - including Apple, Microsoft, Google, Nvidia, Meta, and Amazon - became global leaders in the digital economy," they write.Moore is a former economic adviser from Trump's first administration who was nominated to serve on the Federal Reserve Board of Governors in 2019, though he later withdrew his nomination. He co-founded the organization Unleash Prosperity Now, which published the report.Wolf served on the President's Economic Recovery Advisory Board in the Obama administration and in other advisory roles. He is the current chair of Archie Comics.Mapping the BacklashThe report's authors size up the American backlash to data centers that allow the American AI industry to function and grow, which the Trump administration has said is crucial to staying ahead of AI rivals in less free countries like communist China.On July 18 there were 142 coordinated protests across 42 states against data centers. About 500 communities have adopted local moratoriums against building data centers. Thirteen governors - seven Republicans and six Democrats - have pushed for more stringent data center regulations and moratoriums.At a time when Congress is seen as intensely polarized on party lines, that is not true of electricity demands and data centers.The Ratepayer Protection Act is legislation that would pressure state-level regulators and utilities to consider new standards that would make sure "certain large-load customers" are not able to pass their energy costs on to other businesses and homeowners in the form of increased utility bills.The legislation received bipartisan, nearly unanimous support in the House of Representatives in September, passing that chamber of Congress by a vote of 417-3.The broader public appears to be in an anti-data-center frame of mind. Polls show a new and potentially growing majority of Americans against the building of more data centers.For instance, the Pew Research Center found the percentage of Americans who thought data centers were "mostly bad" for the environment climbed from 39 percent in January to 54 percent in August.About 60 percent of Americans also indicated that they do not want a data center opening up close to their neighborhoods.Allowing Community InputWolf and Moore say that dismissing community activists for impeding progress in this new technological frontier is itself impeding progress."Not in my backyard 'NIMBY' concerns must be respected and addressed if we are to build the public support necessary to move forward," they write.At the state level, Virginia's Gov. Abigail Spanberger, a Democrat, has been trying to do something similar to what Wolf and Moore advise. To thread the needle of continuing data center construction while giving more say to local residents, she signed an executive order in September that created a framework to give more power to those communities.This will allow residents "to have a meaningful voice in data center development and the tools to protect local resources, quality of life, and long-term interests," according to the order.Whether or not that will be a workable solution allowing for the building of more data centers in the commonwealth remains to be seen. In the meantime, other Virginia Democrats are pressing for a broader stoppage of data center construction."A statewide data center moratorium now has support from both parties," wrote state Sen. Glen Sturtevant on Oct. 14 in an X post."I've been pushing for it since July, and now Sen. [Russet] Perry has a bill too. So the question is whether Democratic leadership will let it move forward, and whether Governor Spanberger will sign it."

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Mon, 10/26/2026 - 21:45

https://www.zerohedge.com/ai/former-trump-obama-advisers-jointly-urge-data-center-regulation-middle-ground

The Forgotten Trump Campaign Promise That Will Come Back To Haunt ...

2026-10-27T00:55:00Z

The Forgotten Trump Campaign Promise That Will Come Back To Haunt Republicans In The Midterms

The Forgotten Trump Campaign Promise That Will Come Back To Haunt Republicans In The Midterms

A mounting financial burden costing American families thousands of dollars a year is emerging as an overlooked issue in the 2026 midterm elections as new polling suggests that the expense of caring for aging relatives could influence voters in some of the nation's most competitive congressional races.

While inflation, the Iran War and border security dominate the national debate, the growing cost of family caregiving has attracted comparatively little attention.

An estimated 59 million Americans provide unpaid care for an adult relative, friend or neighbor, according to https://nion-research/politics/2026-midterm-election-poll-competitive-congressional-districts.doi.10.26419-2fres.01065.025.pdf. A recent https://www.edwardjones.com/us-en/why-edward-jones/news-media/press-releases/caregiver-financial-impact study found that financial caregivers who are not fully reimbursed spend an average of $8,737 annually out of pocket, forcing difficult decisions about household budgets and long-term savings.

The financial strain is also evident in retirement accounts. https://www.ebri.org/content/caregivers-and-retirement--findings-from-the-2026-retirement-confidence-survey found that 34% of caregivers have less than $10,000 in savings and investments, compared with 25% of non-caregivers.

Moreover, the AARP survey conducted across 43 competitive congressional districts found that 77% of likely voters age 50 and older said they would be more likely to support a candidate advocating tax credits for unpaid caregivers. Additionally, 75% expressed greater support for candidates backing assistance that allows relatives to remain in their homes rather than enter institutional care.

Older Americans also appear especially motivated ahead of Election Day. The same survey found that 83% of voters age 50 and older described themselves as extremely motivated to vote, compared with 66% of younger voters.

Trump Tax Credit When?

President Donald Trump pledged to address the growing issue during his 2024 campaign, promising a tax credit for Americans caring for aging parents and other loved ones.

"It's about time that they were recognized, right?" Trump https://www.foxbusiness.com/politics/trump-announces-support-tax-breaks-family-caregivers during a Madison Square Garden rally at the time.

However, the proposed caregiver tax credit was ultimately left out of Trump's sweeping tax-and-spending legislation signed in July 2025, while https://www.aarp.org/caregiving/financial-legal/credit-caring-act/ that would provide eligible working caregivers with a tax credit of up to $5,000, has gone no where in Congress.

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Mon, 10/26/2026 - 20:55

https://www.zerohedge.com/political/forgotten-trump-campaign-promise-will-come-back-haunt-republicans-midterms

"Doomsday": U.S. Military Planning To Survive 90 Days ...

2026-10-27T00:30:00Z

"Doomsday": U.S. Military Planning To Survive 90 Days Without Power Grid

"Doomsday": U.S. Military Planning To Survive 90 Days Without Power Grid

The Department of Defense is preparing for a potential "doomsday" scenario in which America's power grid collapses, supply chains grind to a halt, and military installations are forced to operate for three months without outside support, according to https://www.foxnews.com/politics/inside-pentagons-doomsday-plan-keep-america-fighting-global-war-erupts.

The unprecetended plan, branded FORTRESS by Pentagon planners, aims to make major military bases across the continental United States capable of functioning independently for at least 90 days, according to documents obtained by the news outlet.

U.S. Air Force airmen and civilian contractors prepare a containerized nuclear power reactor for airlift aboard a C-17 Globemaster III at March Air Reserve Base, California, Feb. 13, 2026. (U.S. Air Force photo by Staff Sgt. Monique Bright)"We don't want to rely on standard civilian municipal infrastructure to run our national defense. We just simply can't. It's an intolerable risk," DoD spokesperson Sean Parnell https://www.foxnews.com/politics/inside-pentagons-doomsday-plan-keep-america-fighting-global-war-erupts.

The Pentagon is exploring portable nuclear reactors, massive battery installations, and independent microgrids that would allow bases to disconnect from civilian power systems during prolonged blackouts. Officials have long feared that the lose of electricity could cripple communications, logistics, weapons production, and military command structures.

FORTRESS also reportedly calls for stockpiling ammunition, fuel, critical minerals, electronics, spare parts, and medical supplies, while preparing civilian factories to rapidly transition into wartime production.

The Pentagon also plans recurring industrial stress tests and mobilization exercises, alongside measures to protect military communications and navigation systems from satellite disruptions and GPS jamming.

"I realized that a lot of the way we think about homeland defense was built around the antiquated assumption that two oceans would protect us," Parnell https://www.foxnews.com/politics/inside-pentagons-doomsday-plan-keep-america-fighting-global-war-erupts. "President Trump understands that world is gone, and he's already paved the way for new thinking: Golden Dome, a renewed focus on the Western Hemisphere, Greenland, Panama."

"The next conflict will likely be fought on multiple fronts. Look at the geopolitics behind any major war. When that happens, global supply chains will break," the official https://www.foxnews.com/politics/inside-pentagons-doomsday-plan-keep-america-fighting-global-war-erupts. "You don't want to be making these decisions in the middle of a global multi-front conflict. We have to have a plan."

The ongoing threats to America's power grid come from both foreign adversaries and domestic saboteurs.

In February 2024, the NSA and other federal agencies https://www.nsa.gov/Press-Room/Press-Releases-Statements/Press-Release-View/Article/3669141/nsa-and-partners-spotlight-peoples-republic-of-china-targeting-of-us-critical-i/ that Chinese state-sponsored hackers linked to Volt Typhoon had compromised critical U.S. infrastructure networks, including energy, water, transportation, and communications systems.

In December 2022, gunmen https://www.wfmynews2.com/article/news/local/charlotte-fbi-offers-25k-reward-in-substation-shootings-moore-county-randolph-county-nc/83-0b8ae05c-2331-4714-abc4-645a9d94233f two electrical substations in North Carolina, plunging roughly 45,000 customers into darkness and leaving some without power for five days.

* * *

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Mon, 10/26/2026 - 20:30

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Netanyahu Says Iran May Try To Disrupt Israeli Election With ...

2026-10-27T00:05:00Z

Netanyahu Says Iran May Try To Disrupt Israeli Election With Attacks

Netanyahu Says Iran May Try To Disrupt Israeli Election With Attacks

https://www.theepochtimes.com/world/netanyahu-says-iran-may-try-to-disrupt-israeli-election-with-attacks-6108815?utm_source=partner&utm_campaign=ZeroHedge,

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has said that Iran and its allies might try to disrupt Tuesday's elections in Israel with attacks, warning Tehran that Jerusalem would respond with overwhelming counterstrikes.

"We have intelligence signs that our enemies, Iran and its proxies, could challenge us with attacks in order to disrupt the elections," Netanyahu said in a video released by his office on Sunday.

"Don't test us. You will suffer disproportionate blows," he said, adding that the Israeli military was postured for defensive and offensive operations.

Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baqaei said on Monday it "makes no difference" who wins the Israeli election. At a press briefing in Tehran, he was asked about reports in Israeli media that Iran might launch a preemptive military strike to disrupt the vote.

"I do not think there are elections there in the true sense of the word," Baghaei said, according to Iranian state-run media IRNA. "It is a race among individuals, each trying to prove that they can commit more crimes, aggression, and killings than the others."

Baghaei's remarks came as Tehran prepared to host senior officials from Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, and Turkey - the three signatories of the Mecca Joint Defense Agreement - to discuss regional security and de-escalation of the conflict between Iran on one side and the United States and Israel on the other. Netanyahu's warning came as Israelis on Monday entered the final 24 hours of an intense election season, as reports circulated that Netanyahu may have tried to pressure Israeli military leaders into initiating a possible escalation with Iran on the eve of the vote.

Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz denied the reports.

"The reports about gaps between the political echelon and the IDF [Israel Defense Forces] on the Iran issue are entirely baseless and false," Katz said in a Monday post on X.

"I state unequivocally that there was no intention on Israel's part to initiate an attack on Iran before the elections in Israel - when we made clear that if Iran attacks Israel, we will respond with great force."

He also accused opposition figures of exploiting these reports for political gain.

Israel's opposition candidates seized on the reports to criticize Netanyahu, accusing him of putting regional stability at risk in order to boost his chances at the ballot.

Netanyahu's main rival, former military chief of staff Gadi Eisenkot, took to social media to criticize him for putting his "political interests above the state's security."

"We will not allow you to endanger Israel's future in order to preserve your rule," he wrote.

Avigdor Lieberman, head of the Yisrael Beiteinu party, said he sent a letter to Israel's attorney general demanding a criminal investigation into Netanyahu on charges of treason.

"The attempt to drag the State of Israel into war on the eve of elections, together with the willingness to sacrifice IDF soldiers solely due to fear of losing the elections, constitutes treason against the state, its security, and the IDF soldiers," Lieberman wrote in a post on X.

Trump Endorses Netanyahu

U.S. President Donald Trump wrote in a Truth Social post on Monday that a vote for Netanyahu would "finish the job" of stopping Iran from ever obtaining a nuclear weapon.

Describing Netanyahu as an "outstanding Warrior Prime Minister," Trump wrote, "There can no longer be the chant heard around the World of 'Death to America, Death to Israel,' and there won't be."

As Israeli voters head to the polls on Tuesday, Netanyahu's party is neck and neck with Eisenkot, his strongest rival, in a campaign that has largely revolved around security.

Calling Trump a "true friend" of Israel, Eisenkot said on social media that he appreciates the U.S. president's actions and commitment to Israel's security. At the same time, he downplayed Trump's endorsement of Netanyahu, saying that he is convinced Trump would work "in full cooperation with any leader" chosen by Israelis.

Meanwhile, senior Israeli security officials told Epoch Magazine Israel that any potential future Israeli military action against Iran could include the assassination of senior regime figures, most notably current Iranian leader Mojtaba Khamenei and Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps commander General Ahmad Vahidi.

The officials said credible intelligence indicates that Khamenei remains involved in the regime's most critical decisions. They added, however, that targeting Iran's top leadership would not in itself be enough to bring the regime down, and that further measures, particularly strikes against Iran's energy facilities and nuclear sites, would be necessary.

https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden
Mon, 10/26/2026 - 20:05

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/netanyahu-says-iran-may-try-disrupt-israeli-election-attacks

Can Undersea Volcanoes Power Cities? A Seattle Startup Just Took ...

2026-10-26T23:15:00Z

Can Undersea Volcanoes Power Cities? A Seattle Startup Just Took The First Step

Can Undersea Volcanoes Power Cities? A Seattle Startup Just Took The First Step

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Can-Undersea-Volcanoes-Power-Cities-A-Seattle-Startup-Just-Took-the-First-Step.html,

A geothermal startup aiming to source energy directly from undersea volcanoes just hit a major milestone that could bring round-the-clock clean energy to cities on the northwest coast of the United States and serve as a critical proof of concept for other regions, with particular relevance for the other 14 countries situated along the Pacific Ring of Fire.

Seattle-based energy startup Endurance Energy just announced that it successfully created net-positive energy from its underwater geothermal plant in a world first. The company successfully demonstrated a full operations cycle from drilling to electricity generation in a major breakthrough for next-gen clean energy tech. Although the demonstration created less than 10 seconds of positive energy production, the implications of those ten seconds are hard to overstate.

"On Sept. 27, we put a power plant on an active underwater volcano and made power," said Andrew Redd, founder and CEO of Endurance Energy. "This historic milestone is also our first end-to-end test. We now know, firsthand, what works at depth, what needs to be improved, and how to build the next system for sustained commercial generation."

Not only does the brief achievement serve as a critical proof of concept for the technology, the project also "showed that operators in Seattle could control the system from an offshore location, remotely starting and stopping the equipment, monitoring temperatures and pressures, and collecting data without being underwater," according to a recent https://interestingengineering.com/energy/underwater-geothermal-plant-produces-electricity from Interesting Engineering.

Putting a geothermal plant on the seafloor presents some key benefits as compared to traditional models, but also yields critical trade-offs. The cool water of the seafloor acts as a natural cooling system, and the pressure of the water acts as a natural pressurizer that allows for the plants to be designed compactly, according to Redd. The company's next milestone, building a larger 2-megawatt commercial generator in the Pacific island nation of Tonga, will be a test of these more productive, but still compact, generator systems.

"The 2 MW commercial generators will be about the size of a shipping container, and we are deploying up to six of these generators [to] offshore Tonga," Redd told Ars Technica. "The physical footprint of this project will be relatively small."

However, building a geothermal plant underwater presents extra challenges that could incur prohibitively high upfront costs as compared to on-land models. "It's probably technically feasible, but it would undoubtedly be more expensive than to do it on land," Roland Horne, professor of energy science & engineering at Stanford University, recently told Ars Technica.

Underwater geothermal is just one of many next-gen geothermal technologies being developed and tested today, as the urgency of shoring up new, clean, and indigenous forms of energy production becomes an ever-more urgent imperative against the backdrop of the artificial intelligence boom. Big Tech companies are bullish about investing in enhanced geothermal energy as part of their clean energy portfolios, while the Trump administration has also thrown its weight behind the sector's development.

Indeed, one of the biggest benefits of geothermal energy is that it is one of the vanishingly few clean energy technologies that enjoy https://oilprice.com/Alternative-Energy/Geothermal-Energy/The-Renewable-Energy-That-Trump-Has-Not-Targeted.html. By borrowing drilling techniques from the oil and gas industry, the United States could position itself as a global leader in advanced geothermal energy in coming years, a goal which aligns itself with the decarbonization priorities of the left and the energy dominance aims of the right.

"The U.S. has a number of different superpowers, and putting holes in the ground and taking things out of those holes is one of them - and doing so more economically and more efficiently than basically any other place on Earth," Drew Nelson, vice president of Project InnerSpace, was https://www.ciphernews.com/articles/geothermal-is-the-rare-renewable-energy-winning-favor-in-trumps-america/ by Cipher News.

Accordingly, the Department of Energy has high hopes for the emerging technology, estimating that enhanced geothermal projects could provide an impressive https://liftoff.energy.gov/next-generation-geothermal-power/ of clean energy in the United States by 2050, or about enough to power at least 65 million homes.

https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden
Mon, 10/26/2026 - 19:15

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/can-undersea-volcanoes-power-cities-seattle-startup-just-took-first-step

"Democracy Has Failed": Bolsonaro Says Lula's ...

2026-10-26T22:53:00Z

"Democracy Has Failed": Bolsonaro Says Lula's Socialist Regime Seized His Passport

"Democracy Has Failed": Bolsonaro Says Lula's Socialist Regime Seized His Passport

Summary:

- Bolsonaro Says Lula's Socialist Regime Seized His Passport

- Ibovespa Stock Index Plunges 20%, Triggers Circuit Breaker

- Real Crashes 11% To 5.58/USD

- Brazil Markets Crater After Socialist Lula's Shock Victory; Bolsonaro Seeks To Annul Runoff
Bolsonaro Says Lula's Socialist Regime Seized His Passport

Beyond the turmoil in Brazilian markets that crushed the Ibovespa stock index and the local currency, the real, new political developments emerged late Monday afternoon.

Flávio Bolsonaro said the unhinged socialist regime under President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva had seized his passport and banned him from leaving the country on the orders of regime favorite Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes.

"I went to visit my father... As I was leaving, Lula's Federal Police were at his front door, and right there in the middle of the street," Bolsonaro said in a video posted on X.

He added, "This is a sign that our democracy has failed..."

Flávio Bolsonaro says he was ordered to hand over his passports after 'losing' the runoff election in Brazil. Bolsonaro says he went to visit his imprisoned father, who is the former president of Brazil, and was confronted by "Lula's Federal Police." "I went to visit my father... As I was leaving, Lula’s Federal Police were at his front door, and right there in the middle of the street." "I was served an order to surrender my passports; I am also prohibited from leaving the country..." "This is a sign that our democracy has failed..." "I will surrender my passports and defend myself against this travesty, which is a clear attempt to intimidate me. But no one will silence me..." Bolsonaro is calling for the election to be annulled following a last-minute voting extension made by Lula's former personal attorney. The New York Times reports that confusion over Justice Cristiano Zanin's last-minute voting extension could lead to the election being annulled. When Zanin made the last-minute decision to extend voting hours, some polling stations had already closed and shut down their voting machines. They could not reopen. "Fernando Neisser, an electoral law professor at Fundação Getulio Vargas, a Brazilian research institute, said the election could be annulled if the margin is very narrow and it is shown that polling stations stayed open longer in areas that strongly favor one candidate," the NYT reported.
— Collin Rugg (@CollinRugg) https://x.com/CollinRugg/status/2114839878341169259?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
Lula, who pulled off a miracle runoff election win overnight after a controversial last-minute, two-hour voting extension, was called out by President Trump late in the afternoon: "It looked terrible...it looked like another RIGGED ELECTION!"

🚨 BREAKING: President Trump declares the Brazil presidential election stolen from Flavio Bolsonaro looked RIGGED "It looked terrible...it looked like another RIGGED ELECTION!" "I didn't take sides, but it was a terrible look for a world. It's another election — elections HAVE to be indisputable. It looked very BAD to me!" "It looked SO CORRUPT." 🎯 Lula's hand-picked justice extended the voting hours and it JUST SO HAPPENED to benefit his jurisdictions. This is the same playbook used by other leftist governments in Latin America like VZ and Cuba! THROW OUT THE RESULT.
— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) https://x.com/EricLDaugh/status/2114809322509119590?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
Lula's socialist regime appears to have the support of far-left Alex Soros, who has made a career of funding globalist NGOs that are destroying the West.

Lula Lula Lula! Congrats to Brazil for standing up against authoritarianism once again! 🇧🇷 ⚖️✌️
— Alex Soros (@AlexanderSoros) https://x.com/AlexanderSoros/status/2114508265643983067?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
Also, DSA and Democrats have been cheerful today about Lula's questionable win.

DSA was in Brazil Well well well
— Jack Posobiec (@JackPosobiec) https://x.com/JackPosobiec/status/2114837489269563406?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw

This is who DSA supports.

🇧🇷🇺🇲 Após o resultado das eleições, apoiadores de Lula queimaram uma bandeira dos Estados Unidos. https://t.co/HhjKkTJuN7
— Vista Pátria (@vista_patria) https://x.com/vista_patria/status/2114772731162210589?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
What a glimpse into Brazil's future: four more years of a socialist hellhole, fully supported by DSA.

Market Shock

Brazilian assets crashed after President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva's surprise runoff victory over Flávio Bolsonaro unraveled bullish bets across local stocks and the real. A controversial last-minute, two-hour voting extension has prompted Bolsonaro to call for the runoff to be annulled.

Math doesn’t add up
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) https://x.com/elonmusk/status/2114717848518144177?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw

Amazing the NYT is willing to admit this in print. The Brazil results are not legitimate and should be annulled after the TSE voted not to extend but Lula's lawyer who sits on the court extended them anyway. The election was a scam played out for everyone to see. https://t.co/ASzIDf5FjB
— Jim Pfaff (@jimpfaff) https://x.com/jimpfaff/status/2114545837942735269?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
"Needless to say, the outcome caught most of the market by surprise, with President Lula completing a major turnaround and winning the runoff," UBS analyst Daniel Pompiani told clients earlier this morning.

The real plunged as much as 11% this morning, while longer-dated interest-rate swap contracts surged almost 300 basis points after hitting trading limits.

Exchange operator B3 widened trading limits for currency, interest-rate, and stock futures for Monday's regular session to accommodate the volatility. Brazilian stocks last triggered a circuit breaker during the COVID crash in early 2020.

Ibovespa stock-index futures plunged 20%, prompting warnings from trading desks and triggering a circuit-breaker halt.

Traders had positioned for a Bolsonaro victory after his first-round lead sparked a rally and attracted billions in foreign inflows. After Lula's victory, JPMorgan analysts downgraded their outlook on Brazil's currency and rates from overweight to market-weight.

"The post-election message of the market is clear: There is no vacation time for the next four years, and the country will need to address the fiscal issue," said Peter Varga, a senior portfolio manager at Erste Asset Management.

UBS' Pompiani asked:

Will the BCB intervene? It is very likely, but probably not right at the open. The BCB usually monitors flows and overall market conditions before stepping in, as its focus tends to be on market dysfunction rather than defending a specific level. The first move should be violent, but price discovery will be difficult. With liquidity thin and positioning caught offside, headline levels may matter less than where the market can actually clear risk.

Société Générale analyst Brendan McKenna told clients, "Don't call it a comeback, Lula's been here for years."

McKenna provided clients with five key points:

1. Lula's victory in the runoff of Brazil's presidential election marks an abrupt end to Latin America's conservative wave and a shift away from the right side of the political spectrum. What began as anti-incumbent sentiment driven by rising crime, corruption, and inflation ultimately culminated in strong support for Lula and his policy platform. While most Latin American countries will continue to be governed by conservative administrations, the region's two largest economies, Brazil and Mexico, will be led by left-leaning governments. The Latin America election calendar is lighter in 2027 highlighted by general elections in Argentina toward the end of next year. We cannot help but wonder if Brazil pushing back on the right is an indication for a return to Peronism in Argentina or the start of the broader Latam pendulum swinging back left

2. Regardless of whether Brazil's election marks an inflection point in regional politics, financial market contagion from Lula's re-election across Latin America should be limited. Brazil's financial markets are likely to come under significant pressure at the open; however, with most Latin American elections already behind us and many countries having secured more market-friendly policy platforms, we believe any Lula-induced selloff is likely to remain largely idiosyncratic to Brazil rather than trigger region-wide contagion. Argentina may be more vulnerable to spillover effects as regional markets have already demonstrated unease regarding President Milei potentially not being re-elected in 2027. Brazil rejecting a platform similar in style to President Milei could prompt more concern across Argentine local markets, but the extent of any spillover from Brazil's election should be contained to Buenos Aires.

3. Fiscal discipline is likely to prove more elusive under another Lula administration, and we see little reason to expect a meaningful fiscal adjustment during a fourth Lula term. That said, Lula will face a right-leaning Congress that could constrain his ability to further loosen fiscal policy. A bond market and currency that remain under pressure could also force the government to adopt a more pragmatic fiscal stance to reassure investors, similar to Lula's efforts to pursue spending restraint after market pressures intensified in late 2024. Should Vice President Alckmin assume a more prominent role in Economy Ministry, and if Finance Minister Durigan continues to emphasize fiscal responsibility, financial markets may stabilize relatively quickly. However, achieving a peak in government debt ratios is likely to remain challenging.

4. Brazil's Local market selling is likely to be severe, but we will primarily be looking for opportunities to buy BRL. A Lula victory is likely to embed a political risk premium in the currency; however, BRL's underlying fundamentals remain strong. The real continues to benefit from elevated real interest rate differentials, a manageable current account position, and a central bank with adequate foreign exchange reserves and a demonstrated willingness to deploy them to support financial market and FX stability. In addition, BRL may benefit from the presence of a conservative-leaning Congress that could constrain any efforts by President Lula to further loosen fiscal policy. Should Vice President Alckmin be appointed economy minister and Finance Minister Durigan remain in his role, markets may also take comfort in the continuity and elevated prominence of a technocratic economic team. Our range to watch is BRL5.70-BRL5.75. We would view USDBRL in that range as more interesting to engage in tactical trades to express potentially oversold conditions.

5. Rates may be a little trickier, as the upcoming BRL selloff is likely to push near-term inflation expectations higher, on top of an IPCA trajectory that was already expected to firm through the end of this year and into early 2027. SG Economics now forecasts a slower and shallower Brazilian Central Bank (BCB) easing cycle, which could keep the Selic rate above current market expectations through the end of 2028. As a result, the popular pre-runoff receiver trade may face headwinds for a more extended period, particularly relative to FX markets. Rates pressure should be felt across the curve, but the longer end of the curve should feel pressured most acutely given renewed fiscal concerns associated with the Lula administration. For now, our focus remains on identifying attractive BRL entry points rather than expressing bullish views through rates markets.

Brazil Markets Crater After Socialist Lula's Shock Victory; Bolsonaro Seeks To Annul Runoff

Brazilian Senator Flávio Bolsonaro said overnight that he would seek to annul the presidential runoff, challenging a last-minute, two-hour voting extension granted at the request of socialist President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva's campaign. The order came from Supreme Court Justice Cristiano Zanin, Lula's former personal attorney, whom the president appointed to the high court. Lula later won the runoff after Bolsonaro finished first in the first round earlier this month, setting the stage for a legal challenge to the court's questionable intervention.

BREAKING: Flávio Bolsonaro: It is impossible to recognize the election results in the context of how these things happened. We are going to use our legal team, we are going to request the annulment of these elections. https://t.co/PVtKvb9b3M
— Clash Report (@clashreport) https://x.com/clashreport/status/2114534175361597872?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
According to the electoral court, Lula was re-elected for a record fourth term on Sunday, taking 51.76% of the vote to Bolsonaro's 48.24% in a surprise outcome.

Via Bloomberg:

Bolsonaro said, "It is impossible to recognize the election outcome given the circumstances in which all of this took place," adding, "We will pursue legal action and seek to have the election annulled."

@zerohedge @jeffreytucker Pretty weird …
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) https://x.com/elonmusk/status/2114556215560740959?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
Trump:

JUST IN: Trump threatens to tariff Brazil unless they redo their election
— Spencer Hakimian (@SpencerHakimian) https://x.com/SpencerHakimian/status/2114603881736860119?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
Greta received her talking points:

🇸🇪🇧🇷 Greta has a take on the Brazilian election: Lula = good for the planet Anyone else = literal apocalypse LMAO 🤣🤣🤣 Writer: Samuel https://t.co/5jNhSlYxSM
— Mario Nawfal (@MarioNawfal) https://x.com/MarioNawfal/status/2114394053991153935?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
The questionable voting-extension ruling came minutes after polling stations nationwide were scheduled to close at 5 p.m. local time. Zanin later clarified that it applied only to polling stations that remained open.

Soros Jr happy https://t.co/RGCWgVyZ5s
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) https://x.com/zerohedge/status/2114544012807827801?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
UBS analyst Justin Wensek told clients, "Flavio's annulment request is unlikely to hold water given his campaign also asked for additional time in specific states that were impacted by adverse weather."

The focus now shifts to Brazilian markets, where the "Bolsonaro trade" has reversed and shares of companies across the banking, steel and metals, and oil and gas sectors have plunged:

BANKS, FINANCIAL FIRMS

US-listed shares in lenders fall: Banco Bradesco -27%, Itau Unibanco Holding -28%, NU Holdings -22%, Inter & Co. -32%, Banco Santander (Brasil) -11%

Among other financial firms: PagSeguro Digital -28%, StoneCo -31%, PicS -27%

STEEL, METAL & MINING

Among movers: Companhia Siderurgica Nacional -13%, Vale -7.7%, Gerdau S.A. -14% AERO,

OIL & GAS AND OTHER SECTORS

Among other movers: XP Inc. -39%, Ambev -19%, Embraer -2.6%, MercadoLibre -2.6%, Telefonica Brasil -16%, Companhia Energetica de Minas Gerais -15%, Companhia Paranaense de Energia -17%, Petroleo Brasileiro -19%, Ultrapar Participacoes -18%, Cia de Saneamento Basico do Estado de Sao Paulo (SABESP) -22%, TIM S.A. -17%

iShares MSCI Brazil ETF (EWZ) cratered 27% in premarket trading on the surprise Lula win.

UBS analyst Wensek added more color on the significant repricing of Brazilian assets as the market readjusts to four more years of socialist Lula:

Brazil's fiscal outlook again takes center stage, as debt/GDP trajectory resumes its ominous path. The desk expects a significant re-pricing of Brazilian assets on Monday, as the market adjusts to another four years of Lula, with USDBRL potentially at 5.3 Monday.

Note that FX didn't react that much in the first round; it was more about rates and equities. EM strategist Roque Montero thinks USDBRL could drift to 5.5-5.6 by end-2026 given December negative seasonality.

In rates, Roque expects a 100-150bp move higher. Equities could correct by 10-15% based on latest EWZ reaction. Among stocks, watch for selling pressure/rotation out of SOEs, high beta and rate sensitive names, into defensive, USD leveraged, cash flow generative names. If there is a silver lining, Lula will have to build a coalition to pass key policy initiatives through a more right-leaning Senate and Lower House.

Beyond Bolsonaro's possible court battle to challenge the results, Brazil now faces a financial reckoning as public debt has climbed to 83% of GDP from 71.7% when Lula and the socialists took office in January 2023, leaving traders to digest the continued fiscal deterioration.

ING analysts see a 5%-7% slide in real terms and double-digit stock losses today. The repricing is already underway offshore: Brazil's dollar bonds were among the worst performers in emerging markets, with yields on notes due in 2037 jumping 19 basis points to 6.44%.

What Goldman analysts expect from here:

Rates and equities will see the most damage. In rates, where we settle will depend on damage control on fiscal. There are people close to the president advocating for fiscal consolidation given its impact on financing cost. Market will closely monitor Finance Minister announcement, and the details of fiscal consolidation. Adjustments involving Constitutional spending cap/ fiscal target would be well received, and trim on specific social programs without longer term commitment likely won't calm market. If we see credible fiscal reform, BCB can continue its easing path given the still-very-high real rate, so front-end-to-belly receiver could be attractive again after the correction. Equity market will likely price out optimism around structural reforms to improve SOE/ business environment.

USDBRL – expect to settle in new range of 5.4-5.8. This will limit BCB's ability to accelerate its pace of easing.

Brown Brothers Harriman's Elias Haddad sees a buying opportunity emerging from the selloff.

* * *

https://store.zerohedge.com/products/fenix-alb-20-multi-purpose-snap-hook?variant=52073079636266&utm_source=zerohedge&utm_medium=banner&utm_campaign=2026-10-house-fenix-alb20&utm_content=titanium-pocket-change

https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden
Mon, 10/26/2026 - 18:53

https://www.zerohedge.com/political/brazil-stocks-crater-bolsonaro-seeks-annul-runoff-after-socialist-lulas-shock-victory

Iran Braces For Nightmare Energy Crisis As Deepening Political ...

2026-10-26T22:50:00Z

Iran Braces For Nightmare Energy Crisis As Deepening Political Chaos Threatens To Boil Over

Iran Braces For Nightmare Energy Crisis As Deepening Political Chaos Threatens To Boil Over

Iran is facing a potentially crippling energy crisis as winter approaches, adding to mounting economic woes and political infighting that threaten to further destabilize the Islamic Republic.

Photo: ReutersIranian First Vice President Mohammadreza Aref warned on Monday that the government may be forced to restrict natural gas supplies to major consumers as temperatures plunge, according to the London-based and Saudi-funded https://www.iranintl.com/en/202610260047?source=share-link.

"We must maintain the stability of the gas network during the cold months so that cold and remote regions can be supplied," Aref reportedly https://www.iranintl.com/en/202610260047?source=share-link.

The warning comes on the heels of Iranian lawmaker Hosseinali Haji Deligani demanding over the weekend that parliament move forward with impeachment proceedings against the foreign and agriculture ministers, blaming the senior officials for soaring food prices. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has also faced criticism from hardliners over his approach to negotiations with the United States, https://www.iranintl.com/en/202610251890?source=share-link reports.

The calls to oust senior officials are the latest sign of deepening divisions within the upper echelons of Iran's government over how to end the war with the U.S.

Amid the growing political turmoil, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian has https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/pezeshkian-now-says-sanctions-must-be-peeled-us-dialogue-returns to Tehran's demands for returning to the negotiating table with Washington, insisting that some U.S. sanctions must be lifted before direct talks can resume.

Pezeshkian claimed that escalating American economic pressure was undermining prospects for diplomacy, demanding concrete sanctions relief before negotiations could move forward.

"Threats and sanctions must be removed in practice to pave the way for dialogue. We cannot increase the intensity of sanctions and pressure every day, close the avenues of interaction, and at the same time talk about negotiations," he wrote on X.

باید تهدیدها و تحریم‌ها در عمل برطرف شود، تا زمینه گفت‌وگو فراهم شود. نمی‌توان هر روز بر شدت تحریم‌ها و فشارها افزود، راه‌های تعامل را بست و هم‌زمان از مذاکره سخن گفت.

گفت‌وگو با زبان تهدید و فشار معنا ندارد.
— Masoud Pezeshkian (@drpezeshkian) https://x.com/drpezeshkian/status/2112882576977449030?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw

As https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/pezeshkian-now-says-sanctions-must-be-peeled-us-dialogue-returns previously mused, Pezeshkian may be hoping for a diplomatic breakthrough similar to recent developments between Washington and Moscow, where Trump has eased certain economic pressures while pursuing direct talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin.

However, Iran's economy remains under severe strain, with a plunging rial and soaring inflation squeezing ordinary citizens. While Iranian leaders insist the country can withstand years of economic hardship, U.S. military officials paint a far bleaker picture.

Earlier this month, U.S. Central Command chief Adm. Brad Cooper claimed that Iran's financial troubles have become so severe that Tehran-backed militias are withholding soldiers' pay to funnel money to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, which he said is also struggling to pay its troops.

Reports of deepening divisions within Iran's leadership come as https://www.cnn.com/2026/10/26/politics/us-iran-strike-plans-trump reported earlier Monday that the Trump administration is weighing plans for another round of military strikes against Tehran after the midterm elections.

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian speaks during the 81st United Nations General Assembly at the UN Headquarters in New York, on Wednesday, September 23. Timothy A. Clary/AFP/Getty Images

https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden
Mon, 10/26/2026 - 18:50

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/iran-braces-nightmare-energy-crisis-deepening-political-chaos-threatens-boil-over

Somaliland Accuses Ilhan Omar Of Leaking Classified Congressional ...

2026-10-26T22:45:00Z

Somaliland Accuses Ilhan Omar Of Leaking Classified Congressional Info To Somalia

Somaliland Accuses Ilhan Omar Of Leaking Classified Congressional Info To Somalia

https://pjmedia.com/catherinesalgado/2026/10/25/somaliland-accuses-ilhan-of-leaking-congressional-info-to-somalia-n4958686,

Another day, another Omar scandal, another piece of evidence indicating foreign loyalties and domestic betrayal.

AP Photo/Jim MoneRep. Ilhan Omar's (D-Minn.) father https://pjmedia.com/catherinesalgado/2026/03/29/ilhan-omars-connection-to-genocide-in-somaliland-n4951203 in genocide in Somaliland, and Omar herself has connections to top Somali thugs, so unsurprisingly there is a natural antipathy between Omar and Somaliland. The latest (resurrected) accusation from the breakaway African republic against Omar is that she leaked classified information to Somali leaders.

Ali Hassan Mohamed, former Somaliland minister of information, originally https://x.com/alihassanmoham/status/1751992557599404489?s=46&t=wDD9h6AWvM1P0tiUGr3o-w his accusation against Omar in 2024, but the @RepOfSomaliland account, which Somaliland's Foreign Ministry has said is not an official government channel, is highlighting the accusation again to emphasize why Omar is a threat to American security.

This is not the first time that Ilhan Omar created animosity between Somalis. She was heavily involved in the conflict that took place in Las-anod. In December 2022, she visited Garowe, where she leaked information to some of the Somali leaders pertaining a meeting between the President of Somaliland and the Foreign Affairs Committee of the US Congress, which she was a member by that time. She was very persistent and urged the Somalian leaders to take proactive actions against Somaliland as soon as possible. A month after this, the Las-anod conflict broke out. She was certainly one of the main characters who created hatred and division among Somalis. So it is time for Ilhan to be held accountable for her wrongdoings.
— Ali Hassan Mohamed (@AliHassanMoham) https://x.com/AliHassanMoham/status/1751992557599404489?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw

On Sunday, the @RepOfSomaliland account (which Somaliland's Foreign Ministry has said is not an official government channel), https://x.com/repofsomaliland/status/2114305116199383406?s=46&t=wDD9h6AWvM1P0tiUGr3o-w of Omar, "She served on that same [House Foreign Affairs] committee and pressed Somalian leaders to act against Somaliland before relations between the Republic of Somaliland and the United States grows stronger. Months later on 6 February 2023, the Las Anod conflict erupted. Hundreds were killed and thousands displaced in a move that sought to destabilize Somaliland - but failed. This is how a foreign agent operates."

Omar, whose real last name is Nur Said Elmi like her murderous father, is in America just to exploit our systems for her own benefit while still helping out the Islamic dictators back home. Somaliland is pro-America, but Somalia definitely isn't.

By the way, the U.S. federal investigation into Omar's immigration fraud includes not only the https://pjmedia.com/catherinesalgado/2026/10/22/in-10-years-omars-incest-defense-went-from-ridiculous-to-not-to-my-knowledge-n4958585 that she married her brother, but also the total lack of record for her father's naturalization as a citizen. Omar https://pjmedia.com/catherinesalgado/2026/10/19/no-record-of-ilhan-omars-fathers-us-naturalization-n4958470 that she had become a United States citizen through her father while she was still a minor, although she likely tampered with her birth year and he apparently lied about his citizenship status. Given all this, it is entirely possible that we have had a noncitizen Somali warlord's daughter sitting in Congress all these years. No wonder she https://theamericantribune.com/watch-ilhan-omar-says-shes-here-to-protect-the-interests-of-somalia/ that she would represent Somalia's interests in Congress.

Omar is not just a liar and a criminal; she is a foreign asset embedded in our government. It's time she is out of Congress and deported back to the country she claims to love so much.

https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden
Mon, 10/26/2026 - 18:45

https://www.zerohedge.com/political/somaliland-accuses-ilhan-omar-leaking-classified-congressional-info-somalia

Blanche Snaps At Dana Bash Over Alaska "January 6" ...

2026-10-26T22:25:00Z

Blanche Snaps At Dana Bash Over Alaska "January 6" Question As DOJ Defends Suit To Block Certification

Blanche Snaps At Dana Bash Over Alaska "January 6" Question As DOJ Defends Suit To Block Certification

Attorney General Todd Blanche told CNN's Dana Bash on Sunday to "stop it" when she asked whether the Justice Department's Alaska Senate lawsuit is groundwork for overturning an election - insisting "We're not laying any 'groundwork' for the president to do that, so your premise, your question, is not true!" he said.

Dana Bash asked Attorney General Todd Blanche if DOJ's Alaska lawsuit is groundwork for President Trump to "overturn the election," with a January 6th callback for good measure.

Blanche: "You got to stop it with that. You are not being a real person."

"We're not laying any... https://t.co/TRYGOK05Lr
— Andrew Kolvet (@AndrewKolvet) https://x.com/AndrewKolvet/status/2114352835764596919?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw

Bash, on State of the Union, referred to a "doomsday scenario" that Blanche had described days earlier, and asked whether Trump was positioning himself to overturn a result he did not like. "Oh, stop it," Blanche answered. "You are not being a real person. Come on, man." Bash replied, "Why are you yelling at me?" and said she "would have said that 'before Jan. 6.'" Blanche called the question "crazy," and then "not a real question."

The suit at the center of it was filed on Thursday, Oct. 22, against the state of Alaska. It asks a federal court to bar Alaska from certifying its Senate result in certain circumstances while the Justice Department investigates whether voters were confused by a second "Dan Sullivan" on the ballot. Incumbent Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan faces former Democratic Rep. Mary Peltola. Daniel J. Sullivan, a former teacher with the same name, https://www.cbsnews.com/news/todd-blance-alaska-senate-challenge-dan-sullivan/ reports, announced his candidacy in June.

The Justice Department's own framing is narrower than the headlines. Blanche said the filing "does not seek to stop any ballot from being cast or to stop the certification of Alaska's election," the Daily Caller reports. On Face the Nation the same morning he told CBS's Margaret Brennan the suit was not "saying, 'don't certify,'" and that the state should not certify only if a court found the race was decided "because of confusion, and not the will of the voters." He called it "the Department of Justice doing our own research under the law," and said the aim was to "put guardrails in place" so ballots could be preserved to determine whether there was confusion.

The Department of Justice does not seek to stop any ballot from being cast or to stop the certification of Alaska's election. This litigation seeks to ensure that after Alaskans cast their ballots, they are preserved in a manner so that only Alaska's governing officials have the...
— Attorney General Todd Blanche (@AGToddBlanche) https://x.com/AGToddBlanche/status/2114072424815776119?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw

The Alaska courts have already looked at the name overlap, and ruled against removing him. An election official found Daniel J. Sullivan ineligible, citing a "determined effort and a deliberate attempt" to confuse voters, CBS reports. He appealed, and the state Supreme Court affirmed that he could appear on the ballot. Blanche said the administration had hoped the court "would actually issue an opinion and explain their reasoning."

Blanche also conceded the outcome is open. "We don't know what's going to happen yet," he said. Asked about Trump's remark that "I'm the one that said, 'do it,'" he said he had "no idea" to whom the president was referring.

The suit has opponents on the right. Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) said, "The Department of Justice should never have filed this lawsuit." Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) said it was appropriate "to take a look at" the situation, but added: "I do mind the appearance of filing a lawsuit before we even know if the facts..." The Peltola campaign called the suit "a despicable political threat to overturn an election." The ACLU has challenged it, arguing the federal government lacks authority over certification under the National Voter Registration Act, the Daily Caller reports.

The filing came 11 days before Election Day, Blanche said. As ZeroHedge https://www.zerohedge.com/political/even-1-2-or-3-could-make-difference-trump-vows-powerful-legal-options-purge-alaskas-other when Trump first floated "powerful legal options" against the other Sullivan, the second candidate took only 2.5% of the primary vote. Alaska uses ranked-choice voting, and the suit's trigger is a result in which the incumbent loses but would have won had every vote for the other Sullivan gone to him.

https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden
Mon, 10/26/2026 - 18:25

https://www.zerohedge.com/political/blanche-snaps-dana-bash-over-alaska-january-6-question-doj-defends-suit-block

Trump Fires Another Salvo Into Israeli Politics As Netanyahu ...

2026-10-26T21:40:00Z

Trump Fires Another Salvo Into Israeli Politics As Netanyahu Neck-and-Neck With Gadi Eisenkot

Trump Fires Another Salvo Into Israeli Politics As Netanyahu Neck-and-Neck With Gadi Eisenkot

President Trump's public endorsement of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu for the upcoming elections in Israel was already unprecedented for a sitting American President when he first issued it on Oct.18. And so it is raising eyebrows that Trump has issued yet another full-throated statement endorsing him, just within 48 hours of the high stakes vote in Israel.

Sunday night saw Trump put out a https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/117504022227510179, saying that the US and Israel need to "finish the job" against Iran. It comes amid reports Washington and Tel Aviv have been planning a round three major bombing campaign.

via Flash90"To the people of Israel, to those who haven’t seen it, I am attaching the Endorsement I gave one week ago to your Prime Minister, Bibi Netanyahu. As everyone is aware, including the enemy, Bibi and I have had a great relationship in winning together," Trump wrote in a Truth Social post which actually borrows heavily from the original endorsement post.

"I did the Venezuelan attack, one of the most successful military operations in history but, before that, we did Operation Midnight Hammer, stopping the world’s number one state sponsor of terror from obtaining a nuclear weapon."

"When you go to the Polls please remember that Bibi has been an outstanding Warrior Prime Minister! Israel was called The Little Satan, with the United States being called The Big Satan, by some very evil people. There can no longer be the chant heard around the World of ‘Death to America, Death to Israel,’ and there won’t be. Vote for Bibi Netanyahu for Prime Minister, we have to finish the job that we started," Trump added.

Axios is reporting that an embattled Netanyahu essentially begged his ally in Washington to do more to keep him in https://www.axios.com/2026/10/25/netanyahu-trump-israeli-elections:

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu — fighting for political survival in Tuesday's elections — has pleaded with President Trump in recent days to show more public support for his campaign, according to a U.S. source with knowledge and an Israeli source briefed on the matter.

The U.S. source said the White House sees Netanyahu's aggressive lobbying as a "sign of desperation" and an indication that the Israeli leader thinks he's trailing.

Indeed polls show Netanyahu's Likud is trailing main rival, Gadi Eisenkot and his Yashar party.

Palestinians are about to realize that Netanyahu was the moderate.
— Ipwnkyle (@ipwnkyle) https://x.com/ipwnkyle/status/2114348193827938756?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
But neither of the two major blocs is believed yet to be able to take enough seats to secure a majority in the 120-seat Knesset.

Rather than face defeat, there's https://x.com/MarioNawfal/status/2114672134542991432 that Netanyahu could launch a new Iran attack before tomorrow's vote as a big distraction - given also the historical pattern of Netanyahu engaging in wars while staying in power.

https://polymarket.com/event/who-will-be-the-next-prime-minister-of-israel-after-the-next-election

On Sunday Netanyahu https://www.timesofisrael.com/pm-posts-ai-image-of-nuke-hitting-tel-aviv-warns-of-2nd-holocaust-if-hes-not-elected/ an AI-generated image depicting a nuclear explosion in Tel Aviv. He claimed that anyone else taking power would subject Israelis to the danger of a "second Holocaust."

New Netanyahu post: https://t.co/rkxcCaQjeS
— NewsWire (@NewsWire_US) https://x.com/NewsWire_US/status/2114380620226867580?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
Netanyahu also warned that that future generations "will not forgive us if we miss this historic window of opportunity" - and that Iran must be dealt with while Trump is still in office.

As a reminder, 77-year old "Bibi" has led Israel for nearly 19 of the past 30 years, and he's constantly emphasized security, in many ways becoming a kind of permanent wartime prime minister. He's overseen the decimation of Gaza in the wake of the Oct.7 attack, and wars in Lebanon, Syria, and occasional strikes on Yemen. The Iran war remains the biggest conflict he's overseen, which has seen ballistic missiles and drones rain down on Israeli cities and bases as part of previous Iranian retaliation waves.

https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden
Mon, 10/26/2026 - 17:40

https://www.zerohedge.com/political/trump-fires-another-salvo-israeli-politics-netanyahu-neck-and-neck-gadi-eisenkot

'Prison For Reich': Musk Slams Former Labor Secretary ...

2026-10-26T21:20:00Z

'Prison For Reich': Musk Slams Former Labor Secretary Over Commie Fever Dream To Nationalize SpaceX

'Prison For Reich': Musk Slams Former Labor Secretary Over Commie Fever Dream To Nationalize SpaceX

Former Labor Secretary Robert Reich said on a podcast that Democrats should lay the groundwork for nationalizing SpaceX and Starlink if they win the White House, according to https://pjmedia.com/matt-margolis/2026/10/26/former-democrat-labor-secretary-wants-democrats-to-steal-elon-musks-companies-n4958695. "Defund Musk. I mean this," Reich told host Heather Lofthouse on The Coffee Klatch. "If we have a Democratic administration - and the Democrats ought to be starting this, not just with oversight hearings, but also laying the groundwork for nationalizing Starlink and SpaceX. Nationalize it."

NEW: Robert Reich calls for the "defunding" of Elon Musk, calls for Democrats to go after Musk's companies.

"Democrats ought to [start] laying the groundwork for nationalizing Starlink & SpaceX... It should be a public corporation."

Does he want Musk to drop another $50M on the... https://t.co/0jiljf0CtG
— Collin Rugg (@CollinRugg) https://x.com/CollinRugg/status/2114383765770576009?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw

His case rests on money and power. "It should be a public corporation," Reich said. "We should not ever have that kind of power in one person's hands, one private person's hands." He claimed that 75% of Musk's wealth depends on taxpayers who are buying Starlink systems for the Department of Defense, a figure none of the coverage checks.

The government's side of the ledger is large but smaller than that claim implies. The Benton Institute counted https://www.benton.org/blog/starshield-military-grade-starlink-no-one-talking-about in SpaceX's biggest Space Force awards this year, $2.29 billion for the Space Data Network and $4.16 billion for an airborne target-tracking satellite network. Those contracts show how much of SpaceX's business is the Pentagon's, but nothing in the coverage shows what share of Musk's wealth they represent.

Reich went further than contracts. He called Musk "Exhibit A in terms of the billionaire takeover of America," likened him to "the robber barons of the first Gilded Age" and said Musk "is trying to buy the senator from Texas." When Lofthouse read Musk's recent posts aimed at Democrats, Reich said Musk knows that if Democrats take the House and possibly the Senate, "he's really going to be targeted, and he knows it."

That fits what ZH has been tracking. Democrats are reportedly preparing sweeping investigations of Musk's contracts and DOGE role, and NYU's Scott Galloway predicted "the mother of all subpoenas" on Nov. 4, https://www.zerohedge.com/political/elon-musk-faces-mother-all-subpoenas-trillionaire-braces-all-out-war-democrats. Musk had already warned on Oct. 21, "Live by the sword, die by the sword."

Musk replied to Reich directly on X.

Stealing companies is a serious crime. Prison for Reich.
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) https://x.com/elonmusk/status/2114403623778037868?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw

Reich has been on the other side of this before. In August 2025 he wrote on Substack that Trump's https://robertreich.substack.com/p/trumps-state-capitalism "would be communism under any other dictator." Where he objected to the government taking stakes in private companies under Trump, he now wants two of them in public hands under a Democrat. The remarks came in a podcast answer, not a policy proposal.

https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden
Mon, 10/26/2026 - 17:20

https://www.zerohedge.com/political/prison-reich-musk-slams-former-labor-secretary-over-commie-fever-dream-nationalize-spacex

Rubio Urges Cubans To Partner With CIA To Bring Change To ...

2026-10-26T21:00:00Z

Rubio Urges Cubans To Partner With CIA To Bring Change To Communist Country

Rubio Urges Cubans To Partner With CIA To Bring Change To Communist Country

https://www.theepochtimes.com/us/rubio-urges-cubans-to-partner-with-cia-to-bring-change-to-communist-country-6108775?utm_source=partner&utm_campaign=ZeroHedge,

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio made a direct appeal to Cubans on Friday, encouraging them to partner with the CIA if they want to see change in the communist country.

"To those who seek to create positive change in Cuba - now is the time," Rubio said in an Oct. 23 post on X. "The disappointment of failed promises, corruption, and the privileged lives of only a few; seize this opportunity to create the change you desire through a discrete partnership with the CIA."

The CIA followed up Rubio's post on the same platform with the same message in Spanish and included instructions on how to contact the agency. It urged Cubans to use non-personal devices and VPNs.

Cuban leader Miguel Diaz-Canel attends a rally in Havana on May 22, 2026. Norlys Perez/Reuters

Cuban-born Rep. Carlos A. Gimenez (R-Fla.) said in a post on X that the Cuban regime must be "relegated to the ash heap of history."

U.S. President Donald Trump https://www.theepochtimes.com/world/trump-says-us-will-take-care-of-cuba-after-iran-6108189?utm_source=partner&utm_campaign=ZeroHedge at a new American intervention in Cuba, potentially with military force, as he addressed supporters at a midterm campaign rally in Florida on Oct. 23.

He made the comments about Cuba after touting investments in the U.S. military and in military operations this year in Venezuela and Cuba.

"The Islamic Republic of Iran will tell you that we have the best equipment," Trump said, before appearing to respond to comments about Cuba from someone in the crowd. "He wants to know 'what about Cuba?' Give me a break. Give me a break. Don't worry. We'll take care of Cuba on our way back from Iran."

Cuban Deputy FM Carlos Fernández de Cossío mocked Rubio's direct bid to the island.

"Now the U.S. is resorting to public recruitment campaigns for the CIA," he said in an Oct. 23 post on X. "There must be a lot of desperation or a serious lack of resources within the agency if it has to market its offers like toothpaste."

Florida Attorney General James Uthmeier announced earlier this month that state authorities had secured an arrest warrant for former Cuban leader Raúl Castro Ruz.

Castro was charged with conspiracy to commit first-degree murder in connection with the 1996 shootdown of two civilian aircraft operated by Brothers to the Rescue over international waters.

"The Castro regime's spies operated in our communities, fed intelligence to Havana, and helped put civilian pilots in the crosshairs of Cuban MiGs," Uthmeier said. "Thirty years later, we are still fighting for justice for Carlos Costa, Pablo Morales, Mario de la Peña, and Armando Alejandre Jr."

Castro, then minister of the Cuban armed forces and first vice president of Cuba, was a final decision-maker in the chain of command that authorized the shootdown, according to the affidavit.

The affidavit stated that Castro gave senior military leaders standing orders that said, "Fine, shoot them down at sea when they show up, and those who have the authority are not to consult anyone."

Cuban Foreign Minister Bruno Rodríguez described the arrest warrant against Castro as a "disgraceful act" with no legal, ethical, or practical value, during a press conference on Oct. 21, Spanish news agency EFE reported.

Trump issued an executive order in January that said the government of Cuba had "taken extraordinary actions that harm and threaten the United States."

It said that the regime aligns itself with, and provides support for, numerous hostile countries and organizations, including Russia, China, Iran, Hamas, and Hezbollah.

It noted that Cuba hosts Russia's largest overseas signals intelligence facility and also continues to build deep intelligence and defense cooperation with the Chinese communist regime.

https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden
Mon, 10/26/2026 - 17:00

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/rubio-urges-cubans-partner-cia-bring-change-communist-country

Senators Say Trump Admin Is Illegally Sitting On Secret Court ...

2026-10-26T20:45:00Z

Senators Say Trump Admin Is Illegally Sitting On Secret Court Ruling About Warrantless Spying

Senators Say Trump Admin Is Illegally Sitting On Secret Court Ruling About Warrantless Spying

Democrat Senators Ron Wyden and Adam Schiff say the Trump administration is illegally withholding a secret surveillance-court ruling that faulted how intelligence analysts search Americans' messages, while pressing Congress to renew the program the ruling covers. The two lawmakers laid out the charge in a demand letter first reported by https://www.wired.com/story/the-us-government-is-hiding-a-secret-court-ruling-about-how-it-spies-on-americans.

The Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Court issued the opinion on March 17, according to https://www.nextgov.com/policy/2026/04/judge-renews-procedures-702-surveillance-program-could-soon-lapse/412767. It objected to search filters that let analysts pull Americans' communications out of intercepted data without the approvals, written justifications and records the law requires, WIRED reports, and then approved another year of Section 702 surveillance anyway. The law gives the government 180 days to review a ruling like this for public release. That window closed September 13. The administration's https://www.intelligence.gov/assets/documents/702-documents/702_Post_RISAA-FINAL.pdf says the same.

The senators want an explanation for the delay, and the names of the officials responsible, by November 6. "If this administration won't follow this simple statutory directive," they wrote to Director of National Intelligence Jay Clayton and Attorney General Todd Blanche, "it is unclear why Congress or the American people should trust this administration to follow any of the other legal limits to Section 702." The https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/28833648-2026-10-26-letter-from-senators-wyden-and-schiff-to-dni-clayton-and-ag-blanche/ is dated Monday, and Demand Progress and 22 other groups, from the ACLU to a conservative-backed privacy group, https://www.demandprogress.org/api/media/file/FISCDeadline.pdf congressional leaders not to renew the program while the ruling stays buried.

It is not the first deadline to pass. Senate Intelligence Committee Chairman Tom Cotton and Vice Chairman Mark Warner https://www.congress.gov/119/crec/2026/04/30/172/76/CREC-2026-04-30-pt1-PgS2158-2.pdf the administration in April to release the opinion within 15 days. Demand Progress said in May that the 15 days https://demandprogress.org/trump-admin-misses-friday-deadline-to-declassify-alarming-fisa-court-opinion/ with nothing declassified.

AG Todd Blanche (via AP)Blanche was asked in writing in July whether he would commit to declassifying it by the 180-day mark. His answer, in his https://www.judiciary.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/98781d53-bdcc-75d8-c507-1b1bca492142/2026-07-15_QFR-Responses_Blanche_687007f1-363d-40d9-b7da-356b52dc448d.pdf, was "Yes." Clayton, who as DNI is legally responsible, has made no such promise. Before his confirmation he said only that the government was "working arduously to expeditiously declassify" the opinion and had given the full text to lawmakers. Warner's office told WIRED he expects Clayton to declassify it, as required by law. Cotton's office did not respond, and the White House, the DNI's office and the Justice Department did not answer WIRED's questions.

The opinion is still secret, but pieces of it have leaked. The https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/09/us/politics/section-702-surveillance-fisa.html reported in April that the court found the tools agencies use to narrow intercepted data to an American's messages amount to searches of Americans, subject to the same limits, and ordered them rebuilt. Nextgov said it could not independently confirm that account. Administration talking points sent to lawmakers said only that the court found the proposed approach "could present deficiencies." Senator Alex Padilla has said the Justice Department is appealing portions of the ruling that limit its use of certain filtering tools.

The ruling has a history. A declassified 2025 court opinion described a similar FBI tool that let agents select people in contact with surveillance targets and read their messages. The Justice Department told the court in February 2025 that searches through it had gone uncounted, and the FBI switched it off, then back on later in the year with a rebuilt version.

The report also notes that seven intelligence-agency fact sheets issued in March, one dated the day of the ruling, cited a 98.9 percent compliance rate for FBI searches of Americans and never mention the court's findings. The figure does not appear in the Justice Department inspector general's https://oig.justice.gov/sites/default/files/reports/26-002_0.pdf, which put compliance at 98.6 percent and said it could not conclude the FBI's compliance problems were "entirely in the past." The same fact sheets say FBI auditors review every search of Americans, WIRED reports, while FBI Director Kash Patel closed the bureau's Office of Internal Auditing last May.

Lawmakers who have read the ruling say it matters. Senator Dick Durbin told colleagues on the Senate floor in June that once they read it, "your opinion of the role of FISA and the rights of Americans will be impacted for sure." Wyden has said that when a separate classified interpretation of Section 702 is finally declassified, "the American people are going to be stunned that it took so long."

The program itself lapsed in June after Congress failed to renew it, though collection continues under the court's March approval, which runs to next March. Trump https://www.zerohedge.com/political/no-fisa-without-save-act-trump-calls-out-dumocrat-double-cross-keeps-pulte-acting-dni earlier that he would not approve FISA without the SAVE America Act going along with it, and intelligence officials are now pressing lawmakers to renew Section 702 by year-end. Reform advocates expect the administration to try to attach a renewal to the annual defense bill, which Congress usually finishes in December, as lawmakers did in 2023. The administration has until November 6 to answer the senators.

https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden
Mon, 10/26/2026 - 16:45

https://www.zerohedge.com/political/senators-say-trump-administration-illegally-sitting-secret-court-ruling-about-warrantless

Iran Signals Rare Flexibility Toward US In Talks With Mecca Pact ...

2026-10-26T20:40:00Z

Iran Signals Rare Flexibility Toward US In Talks With Mecca Pact Representatives

Iran Signals Rare Flexibility Toward US In Talks With Mecca Pact Representatives

Update(1635): Somewhat surprisingly, Iran appears ready to be flexible concerning its conditions and matters of the timeline related to the Hormuz crisis and standoff with US forces:

Iran Says It Could Accept Shortening Proposed Seven-Day Deadline if Conditions Are Met

In Tehran on Monday, Iran informed delegates from Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Pakistan that it is willing to reopen the Strait of Hormuz in four to seven days if the US lifts its blockade.

State media cited Supreme National Security Council official Ali Bagheri Kani as confirming the flexible timeline, adding that diplomats are now organizing the next round of negotiations.

Riyadh is meanwhile stressing de-escalation:

The Saudi Foreign Ministry has stressed “the importance of opening channels of negotiation to prevent a return to military escalation” following a meeting of senior officials from the Mecca Joint Defence Agreement states with Iranian officials in Tehran on Monday.

Tuesday will witness a big meeting in Moscow: President Vladimir Putin is due to meet Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian and the Emir of Qatar, Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani, in the Russian capital.

* * *

There are many indicators that the US and Israel could soon attack Iran again, with media consensus in the US pointing to the likelihood of a renewed bombing campaign after the midterm elections.

In the interim, regional countries are scrambling for a diplomatic breakthrough, seeking to stave off the next escalation round, given also that past Iranian retaliation has imposed a huge cost on America's Gulf allies.

via Associated PressSenior officials from Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Turkey in Tehran for high level talks, the deputy secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, Ali Bagheri, has confirmed Monday.

This includes Saudi Defense Minister Khalid bin Salman, Pakistani Army Commander General Asim Munir, and Turkish Intelligence Chief Ibrahim Kalin - who will engage the Iranian side on "regional security".

Notably, these three countries are signatories to the Mecca Defense Pact and are also allies of the United States, with Turkey being a NATO member.

Iran's Bagheri https://www.middleeasteye.net/live/iran-war-live-tehran-denounces-us-israel-attacks-regional-tensions-rise, "The Islamic Republic of Iran's model of defense based on internal and domestic capabilities has become a successful model for building national security."

"On the other hand, Iran's strategic policy is to ensure regional security through regional countries and confront any foreign interference and influence, led by the American and Zionist regimes," he added.

Bagheri praised the "fruit of the heroic efforts and struggles of the armed forces and the Iranian nation" and expressed hope that Iranian resistance to US-Israeli aims would result in a "region with stability and peace and on the path of progress."

Reuters has cited a senior Iranian official who says the meeting was initiated by Pakistan.

Jason Brodsky, a hawkish think tank pundit, has reacted to the diplomatic scramble in https://x.com/JasonMBrodsky/status/2114660410515206357:

The stories write themselves at this point. I would not be surprised to see a last minute call from regional countries to President Trump pleading for a delay in any military operation against Iran, citing that progress is just around the corner on negotiations or deal that will later fall apart.

Over the weekend, just prior to the Mecca Pact countries' delegations going to Tehran, Qatari mediators were also once again in the Iranian capital to "de-escalate regional tensions."

Senior officials from Iran, Pakistan, Türkiye and Saudi Arabia have begun a four-way meeting in Tehran, hosted by Iran’s Supreme National Security Council Secretary Mohsen Rezaei. Participants include Pakistan’s Army Chief Asim Munir, Saudi Defense Minister Khalid bin Salman and Turkish Intelligence Chief Ibrahim Kalin.
— Clash Report (@clashreport) https://x.com/clashreport/status/2114708652644819407?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
Meanwhile, CNN is reporting that the White House has plans to relaunch major attacks on Iran, and that more American forces are being deployed to the Middle East, so that strikes against Iran could be carried out "within 96 hours of receiving" an order from the president.

According to that https://us.cnn.com/2026/10/26/politics/us-iran-strike-plans-trump:

Sufficient forces are now deployed in the region to carry out the potential attacks, the sources said. The scope of new US military operations would likely go beyond efforts to simply “mow the lawn” or maintain the status quo by striking radars, launchers and other Iranian assets that can be quickly reconstituted — as has been the case since Trump halted full combat operations earlier this year, the sources added.

“It will be a big effort,” one of the officials told CNN. That view has been echoed by other current and former US officials familiar with internal military planning discussions — some of whom say it is a question of when, not if, Trump will issue a go-order. They believe it could come any time before the end of the year, though most likely after the https://www.cnn.com/2026/10/22/politics/iowa-republicans-trump-iran-war

But it remains the that US administration has yet to define the end goal or 'mission accomplished' moment, now in month eight of what was supposed to be a "two to four-week" conflict. So far, escalation has tended to simply beget more escalation, and not an offramp.

It seem they all went to Iran to deliver the final threat. https://t.co/1Akhe5rHHT
— Ali (@MerruX) https://x.com/MerruX/status/2114713439600058834?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
A major new bombing campaign would put immensely more pressure on Iran, but would do the same for America's Gulf allies, given they would probably face a huge wave of retaliation from the IRGC in the form of ballistic missiles and drones.

https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden
Mon, 10/26/2026 - 16:40

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/mecca-pact-officials-tehran-last-ditch-diplomacy-us-prepares-96-hour-strike-window

Kunstler: "It's All A Giant Mind-F**k" Kunstler: ...

2026-10-26T20:20:00Z

Kunstler: "It's All A Giant Mind-F**k"

Kunstler: "It's All A Giant Mind-F**k"

https://www.kunstler.com/p/the-grotesque-tangle-of-sedition,

"We are also starting to consult federal workers on how to do some blocking inside the govt agencies during emergency situations - but please do not put that on the form."

- Eric Manton, of the DRG

They put it on the form, though, cuz somebody screwed up. Oopsie. . . .

Color Revolution Ninja, the Lovely Danielle Reiff

Get this: the reason that a color revolution is underway at all in America is not really political anymore - if it ever even was. It's because a whole lot of people have committed crimes against this country. And with each wave of attempted sedition, they have compounded their crimes with more seditious acts, arrant hoaxes, lawfare, election fraud, censorship, and wholesale looting of taxpayer dollars to keep themselves out of prison.

That's what USAID was all about, and why it was taken down early in Trump 2.0. It was a nexus of racketeering and the home-base of the Deep State's foot soldiers, bureaucrats who actually managed the money streams to NGOs that ran everything from election rigging operations to vast social services fraud in blue states, in concert with a Democratic Party that had nothing but rackets to keep it going.

That's how the USAID's defunct office of Democracy, Human Rights, and Governance (DRG) has morphed into the new Democracy Renewal Group (DRG). This new DRG operates under another project called Branch-4 - as in a fourth branch of government, the permanent bureaucracy - and Branch-4 operates under an NGO called the Action Center on Race and the Economy Institute (ACRE Institute), a 501(c)(3) public charity based in Chicago (EIN 82-1199695). Note, the ACRE Institute's primary funders include the Ford Foundation and the Rockefeller Brothers Fund. You see how byzantine this is, echoing exactly the hyper-complex administrative workings of government bureaucracy itself?

And so, that's why, for instance, one Eric Manton, a former USAID employee now working with DRG said, ". . . we are also starting to consult federal workers on how to do some blocking inside the govt agencies during emergency situations." Blocking? What they mean by that is federal employees lodged in the official agencies should "help run out the clock. . . develop selective hearing. . . forgetfulness. . . or blame your workload" for whatever it takes to block enforcement of any executive action proposed by the Trump administration.

Those tactics are explicitly proposed by another org, the Federal Workers Alliance for Democracy (FWAD formerly known as Federal Workers Against DOGE), which is affiliated with DRG primarily as a partner in the Renew American Democracy (RAD) strategy and through the broader Branch-4 ecosystem. Confused yet? You should be. The flak-storm of acronyms is beloved by Lefty-leftists for exactly that purpose.

RAD is run by Danielle Reiff, a 20-year veteran of USAID color revolution programs in Europe and Africa. Her co-coordinator at RAD is one Paul Zeitz, an osteopath and rabbi who worked previously for USAID in Africa and for the State Department as Director of the Data Revolution for Sustainable Development, whatever that was. FWAD is led by one Beverly Schreiber

You might ask: why has the FBI not paid a visit to Beverley Schreiber to assess how she is organizing her members to "block" actions that the chief executive orders agencies to carry out? The Federal Workers Alliance for Democracy must have a membership list. If their mission is to block the work of their agencies, as explicitly directed by FWAD, shouldn't they be fired from their jobs?

And let's not leave out a few other sketchy orgs and their leaders: Erica Chenoweth, who operates the United Democracy Alliance (UAD) out of Harvard's Kennedy School of Government, which likewise operates under the "umbrella" of the Horizon Project, led by Maria J. Stephan and Julia Roig. Stephan was lead foreign affairs officer in the U.S. State Department's Bureau of Conflict and Stabilization Operations (whatever that means), roughly 2009-2014. She was also co-director the Future of Authoritarianism Initiative at the Atlantic Council, which is funded by George Soros's Open Society org. Julia Roig was President and CEO of PartnersGlobal, funded by USAID, the State Dept., the Ford Foundation, and George Soros's Open Society Foundation.

What you see is a concoction of intertwined subversive endeavors with more gears and escapements than a Schwarzwald cuckoo clock, all operating under the banner of "Our Democracy," by which they really mean their prerogative to run your world (and punish you for objecting). This includes running a coup against the current chief executive of the USA. Much of this information has been uncovered by the tireless and diligent researcher Jennica Pounds, known as Data Republican on X. She remarked Monday morning: "What makes 2026 different is that it's the first time we know of that we found an operational, short-term plan to actually do a coup."

Coincidentally, weird, coup-ish events played out yesterday in the Brazilian election. A judge who had been President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva's personal lawyer ordered the polls to stay open an additional two hours until enough votes were "found" to haul Lula across the victory line over his opponent, Flavio Bolsonaro, a Trump ally. Chalk one up for the Globalists. Call it a DoorDash color revolution. Bolsonaro has refused to concede and is officially contesting the election. Expect street demonstrations by Bolsonaro supporters over this caper. Perhaps riots. Maybe Lula getting strung up Mussolini-style.

American coupsters will point to that as evidence that Trump supporters will riot after the US midterms. It's all a giant mindfuck. Meanwhile, our coupsters have been outed. We know who they are and what they're up to. And we are all waiting to see what federal law enforcement aims to do about it.

We publish a variety of perspectives. Nothing written here is to be construed as representing the views of ZeroHedge.

https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden
Mon, 10/26/2026 - 16:20

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/kunstler-its-all-giant-mind-fk

Foreign Demand Craters For Ugly, Tailing 2Y Treasury Auction ...

2026-10-26T20:17:06Z

Foreign Demand Craters For Ugly, Tailing 2Y Treasury Auction Ahead Of Fed Decision

Foreign Demand Craters For Ugly, Tailing 2Y Treasury Auction Ahead Of Fed Decision

A week that sees a barrage of macro news, earnings, political developments, capital markets events including the massive Anthropic IPO offering doc and a record equity offering by Meta, also has a flood of coupon issuance to contend with starting with today's $69BN in 2Y paper which sold to tepid demand ahead of this week's FOMC decision.

Let's see how the auction did, starting with the high yield 4.708% which was modestly below last month's 4.787% which was the highest since June 2024. This tailed the When Issued 4.705% by 0.3 bps, the biggest tail since March.

The bid to cover was 2.589, down from 2.627 last month and the lowest since also March, when it dipped to 2.440.

But it was the internals where the biggest surprise, or rather disappointment, was to be found, as foreigners (Indirects) took down just 45.7%, a sharp drop from the 57.8% in September and the lowest since November 2021. Offsetting this collapse in foreign demand was a surge in Direct demand which sent the Direct bid sharply higher from 29.0% to 41.3%, the highest on record...

... leaving 13.0% to Dealers, or roughly in line with recent activity.

Overall, this was a surprisingly poor auction, which tailed the 2nd most of 2026, but judging by the dramatic collapse in foreign demand, it is almost surprising the results weren't far worse.

https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden
Mon, 10/26/2026 - 16:17

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/foreign-demand-craters-ugly-tailing-2y-treasury-auction-ahead-fed-decision

Trump Posts Longest Truth Social Rant Of His Career - 1,300 Words ...

2026-10-26T19:40:00Z

Trump Posts Longest Truth Social Rant Of His Career - 1,300 Words At Bill Maher

Trump Posts Longest Truth Social Rant Of His Career - 1,300 Words At Bill Maher

President Donald Trump posted the longest message of his social media career on Sunday night, a rant of more than 1,300 words on Truth Social aimed at HBO host Bill Maher, two days after Maher defended his second White House dinner with him on air. At just over 1,300 words, it's Trump's longest ever.

"Let's talk about this COMPLETE AND TOTAL LOSER, Bill Maher," https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/117504266048722465, calling Maher's show "Low Rated" on "equally Low Rated HBO." Later he called Maher a "major POTHEAD," a "coward" and a "dumb SLEAZEBAG," and closed: "You're not transformative, you're a Loser!"

The trigger was Friday's "Real Time," Maher's first show since the dinner, which CNN dates to Oct. 15. Maher opened by telling his audience, "You know what? Fuck you. I like these dinners," and said he goes in and tells Trump "face-to-face" what he writes "in articles he'll never read."

Maher posted the opening bit himself on X the next day, telling of the thrill of being announced at the White House with an aide saying, "Sir, your 7 o'clock low-ratings dummy is here."

There is just something thrilling about being announced when you're in the White House, when you're outside the Oval Office, and you hear the aide say, "Sir, your 7 o'clock low-ratings dummy is here." https://t.co/G6qUCsstNG
— Bill Maher (@billmaher) https://x.com/billmaher/status/2113828469461402035?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw

Trump beef is apparently is over the evening itself. Maher says the dinner ran four hours; Trump says it lasted "two hours, maybe less," and that "We have the timestamps." He wrote that he "learned nothing, and felt it was a waste of time," and that Maher "invited himself." He also claimed Maher "was drunk and had alcohol in his hand as he walked through the White House." Maher had not answered that as of Monday.

The post then wandered through a list of grievances with Maher's show. Trump said Maher "lied about all of the Illegal Voters" in California, adding "they found 20,000, and the number could easily go to over 1,000,000." He also said that Maher "attacked our Great Republican Candidates, when he knows my Endorsement Record is 98% in the House, and 100% in the Senate," and that the show was unfair to Karoline Leavitt, who appeared as a guest.

Buried in the middle was a bit of actual news. "I am not building a swimming pool in the White House Briefing Room, and never had any intention of doing so," Trump wrote, "I am thinking about moving the Press, and putting them in a different location." CNN noted that the post confirms he has considered moving the press corps out of its White House workspace.

He ended with orders. "Bill: Don't call anymore. It's useless," he wrote, said he would "never watch it again," and added, "I'm going to have the Republicans not cover you anymore."

Maher had not responded as of Monday morning, and the White House simply pointed Fox News Digital back to the post. Critics on the left jumped on the length, with Mediaite rounding up reaction under the heading "Mental Deterioration!"

It is a sharp turn from how Trump described the evening at the time. After the dinner, which also included Kid Rock and Stephen A. Smith, he told reporters Maher "likes me a lot more than people understand" and that it "was a very informative dinner," according to https://www.foxnews.com/media/trumps-brutal-truth-social-attack-bill-maher-after-dinner-sparks-confusion-online.

https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden
Mon, 10/26/2026 - 15:40

https://www.zerohedge.com/political/trump-posts-longest-truth-social-rant-his-career-1300-words-bill-maher

60,000 Microsoft Workers Offered Buyouts As AI Spending Boom ...

2026-10-26T19:20:00Z

60,000 Microsoft Workers Offered Buyouts As AI Spending Boom Reshapes Workforce

60,000 Microsoft Workers Offered Buyouts As AI Spending Boom Reshapes Workforce

Job cuts and downsizing announcements across corporate America have gained momentum, a trend we featured in a report last week titled "https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/tech-layoffs-surge-corporate-americas-ai-blitz-raises-fears-worst-yet-come.";

Days later, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-10-26/microsoft-to-offer-buyouts-to-60-000-workers-in-latest-cost-cut reports that Microsoft will offer voluntary buyouts to about 60,000 employees while spending heavily on artificial intelligence and data center expansion.

NEARLY 1 OUT OF 3 (60,000 EMPLOYEES) AT MICROSOFT BEING OFFERED VOLUNTARY TERMINATION Emails should be going out any minute to those receiving the offer. Absolutely insane.
— LayoffHedge (@LayoffAI) https://x.com/LayoffAI/status/2114755217497465077?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
"This offer gives eligible employees who may be considering a future outside the company a new choice to make that transition now with support," Chief People Officer Amy Coleman wrote in a memo earlier today.

The memo cited by the outlet says workers on selected units in the US, Canada, India, and the UK at the vice president level and below will be eligible for the voluntary buyouts.

Some employees in data centers, sales, and marketing are excluded. Benefits will match a standard severance package, according to the report.

Bloomberg data shows Microsoft employed 223,000 people at the end of June and has cut thousands of jobs in recent years. The Big Tech firm's total workforce began to plateau in 2022.

What we reported on Friday:

The AI layoffs are here: *AMERICAN EXPRESS TO CUT 5% OF JOBS, ABOUT 3,500 EMPLOYEES *BARCLAYS TO CUT 5,000 JOBS AS AI STARTS CREATING EFFICIENCY *EBAY CONFIRMS JOB CUTS OF ABOUT 9% *NETFLIX TO LAY OFF 6% OF GLOBAL STAFF, OR ABOUT 1,000 JOBS: WSJ
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) https://x.com/zerohedge/status/2113614555276251298?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
A deeper dive into layoffs across corporate America:

Bloomberg story counts featuring terms such as "job cuts," “layoffs," and "firings" jumped Thursday to their highest level since early May.

We're certain the worst is yet to come.

https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden
Mon, 10/26/2026 - 15:20

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/60000-microsoft-workers-offered-buyouts-ai-spending-boom-reshapes-workforce

Creepy Paid Democrat Propaganda Script Drops... Creepy Paid ...

2026-10-26T19:00:00Z

Creepy Paid Democrat Propaganda Script Drops...

Creepy Paid Democrat Propaganda Script Drops...

https://modernity.news/2026/10/25/creepy-paid-democrat-propaganda-script-drops/,

Democrat-aligned influencers have flooded social media with near-identical videos accusing Elon Musk of trying to buy the midterm elections. The clips use the same phrasing, the same framing, and the same call to action. Accounts that normally post independent-sounding commentary suddenly received the same memo.

Wall Street Apes highlighted the pattern, posting a compilation that shows multiple creators delivering the message in lockstep.

The videos hit the same beats: Musk is trying to buy the elections, the effort is funded through government contracts, and viewers should tell him the country is not for sale. Different faces. Same lines.

This right here is what paid propaganda looks like Democrat influencers are make videos using the exact same script, word for word, targeting Elon Musk saying he's buying the midterms elections Again, WORD FOR WORD. All Democrats have is paid propaganda. They rely on people believing their paid propagandists reading scripts for money
— Wall Street Apes (@WallStreetApes) https://x.com/WallStreetApes/status/2113712729894842620?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw

Katie Miller flagged the coordination directly. She noted the undisclosed, paid nature of the talking points and asked which leftist dark-money group is behind the push.

Undisclosed, paid, coordinated talking points. What leftist dark money group is paying for this? https://t.co/WGs0bGzQyh
— Katie Miller (@KatieMiller) https://x.com/KatieMiller/status/2114010426887508454?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw

The core message appears across roughly a dozen accounts. The 'creators' state that the spending is paid for with taxpayer money tied to government contracts.

They urge viewers to push back and declare that the country is not for sale. One account, Pullups Pasta Politics, has described itself as part of the Senate Communications Committee Creators Program. That detail raises the question of who supplied the language and who coordinated the distribution.

This is not the first time the pattern has appeared. Earlier this year, Senate Democrats posted matching videos built around the same scripted lines ahead of a presidential address. The identical phrasing drew immediate mockery and was described as actors reading a script.

Musk has become the largest known individual donor in the current midterm cycle. Reporting from outlets including the New York Times and others has placed his contributions in the range of $276 million to $366 million so far, with major sums directed to the Senate Leadership Fund and related Republican efforts.

Those figures are public and drawn from FEC filings. Left-leaning commentary has framed the spending as an attempt to purchase control of Congress. The influencer videos amplify that framing with tightly matched language rather than independent analysis.

Coordinated influencer drops allow a single message to appear as widespread public sentiment. The people delivering the lines may not disclose payment or central direction in the videos themselves. The result is a set of clips that look like organic outrage while tracking the same prepared text.

Similar operations have been documented in Democratic-aligned creator programs that recruit accounts, provide content guidance, and distribute material across platforms.

The current push arrives as polling and race-by-race reporting show competitive contests in several Senate and House seats. Framing Musk's disclosed donations as an illegitimate purchase of the elections is a clear messaging priority.

https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden
Mon, 10/26/2026 - 15:00

https://www.zerohedge.com/political/creepy-paid-democrat-propaganda-script-drops

Fed Over-Tightening: How Much Runway Is Left Before It Bites? Fed ...

2026-10-26T18:20:00Z

Fed Over-Tightening: How Much Runway Is Left Before It Bites?

Fed Over-Tightening: How Much Runway Is Left Before It Bites?

https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/fed-over-tightening-how-much-runway-is-left-before-it-bites/

The risk of Fed over-tightening rises when 5% Treasury yields, a thin savings cushion and a hike-cut-hike Fed all converge at the same time.

The Fed raised rates in September, and the 10-year Treasury yield has sincehttps://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/bonds-at-5-is-the-10-year-treasury-finally-a-buy/. That combination raises a question the market isn’t asking loudly enough. If long-term rates are already doing the tightening, does every additional hike from here raise the risk of Fed over-tightening? I think the answer is yes. What’s more, the data suggest the “runway” before the damage shows up is shorter than most assume.

On September 16, the FOMC voted 12-0 to raise the target range to 3.75%-4.00%, its first hike since 2023.1 The new dot plot puts the year-end rate between 4.1% and 4.4%. Markets now expect a hold at the October 28 meeting but still price roughly three-in-four odds of another hike by December.2 As I argued in https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/the-fed-rate-hike-wont-fix-the-inflation-it-targets/, the Fed’s tool works on demand and only demand. So the real question is where that demand is most exposed. Let’s take it in four steps.

Is Strong Economic Activity Really Driving Inflation?

Start with the activity data, because it’s genuinely strong. The ISM Services PMI printed 54.9 in September, with new orders at 59.8, while the manufacturing index came in at 54.5.3 Weight those 80/20 to reflect the economy’s services tilt and you get a composite of roughly 54.8. If activity drives inflation, readings like that should precede hot CPI prints.

So, I tested it just to make sure. When you line up every monthly ISM Manufacturing reading since 2013 against CPI inflation nine months later, the relationship turns out to be far weaker than the “hot economy equals hot inflation” narrative assumes. Outside the pandemic window, the 37 months with a PMI of 55 or higher were followed by inflation averaging 1.6%. The only time strong activity preceded high inflation was mid-2020 through mid-2022, when stimulus checks collided with broken supply chains. Such is the problem with using 2021 as the template.

Here’s where the data gets interesting. Activity correlates with the change in inflation at about 0.55. In other words, a strong economy nudges prices higher. It doesn’t set the level. That’s the “good inflation” component, and it’s REAL today. ISM respondents have listed GPUs and memory in short supply as AI spending strains capacity.4

The bigger driver, however, is the “bad” kind of inflation. Headline CPI jumped to 3.7% in September, while energy prices ran 20.4% above a year ago.5 Services firms are paying more for diesel and gasoline. That’s why the services prices index hit 74.0 in September, its highest since mid-2022. Good inflation in capex, bad squeeze on the consumer. The Fed’s hike does little to the first and a great deal to the second.

Earnings Are Running Ahead Of The Economy

That brings us to earnings. Topdown Charts’ S&P 500 earnings revisions pulse has surged to one of its highest readings since 2003. The average of the ISM manufacturing and services indexes, by contrast, sits only modestly above its norm.6 Historically, those two lines move together. When they split, they close the gap, either because the economy catches up or because revisions roll over.

“Rising earnings support rising asset prices, so why worry?”

If this were a historically normal economic cycle, that objection would carry the day. However, in today’s market, the issue is breadth. Earnings revisions are concentrated almost entirely in AI and capital spending sectors, where cash-rich hyperscalers barely notice a quarter-point rate hike. The newer, debt-funded cloud providers are another story, and October’s AI selloff showed how quickly that end of the trade can wobble. Notably, the FOMC itself described the backdrop this way:

“Productivity growth is strong, and capital investment is robust.”- FOMC statement, September 16, 2026

While that is true, it’s also the problem. Currently, the Fed is tightening an economy whose strongest engine doesn’t need credit. However, the parts of the economy that do need credit are already straining from higher rates. At the same time, that 5.1% risk-free rate raises the bar every that equity multiple has to clear. So, earnings can rise even while valuations compress. We saw exactly that in 2022, when S&P 500 earnings held up through the year while the index fell roughly 19% as the 10-year yield climbed from about 1.5% to near 4%.

The Consumer Is Spending Its Portfolio

Point three is where I think the real risk of Fed over-tightening sits. For 15 years, rising markets quietly substituted for income growth. The JPMorganChase Institute, drawing on checking account data from more than 20 million Chase customers, now quantifies it.7 Net transfers from investment accounts into checking funded 2.3% of total spending in 2015. By April 2019, it was 3.5%. By April 2026, it was 6.8%, meaning that for every dollar American households spent this spring, nearly 7 cents came from selling stocks, bonds, and funds rather than from a paycheck.

Among top earners, withdrawals have funded more than 10% of spending every month this year. Notice the interruptions. The trend dipped in early 2020, through most of 2022 and in early 2025, each time stocks fell. Then add a personal saving rate of 4.1% in August, the lowest since late 2022 after BEA’s annual revisions, a backdrop we covered in https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/consumer-credit-stress-what-the-data-really-shows/. The top 10% of earners drive roughly half of all spending, according to Moody’s. It funds a growing slice of that spending by selling assets. And the bottom half has almost no savings cushion.

Some of this is demographic, and I’d be careful labeling all of it “stress.” Boomers drawing down retirement accounts is the decumulation I’ve written about before. Much of it is planned; however, the channel is the same regardless of motive. Higher rates pressure asset prices, lower asset prices shrink withdrawals, and smaller withdrawals shrink spending. The next recession probably doesn’t start with layoffs. It starts with a market decline that switches off the spending of the households that do most of it.

How Much Runway Does The Fed Have Before Fed Over-Tightening Bites?

Which brings us to history. After the 1991 recession, the Fed hiked aggressively in 1994 and cut in 1995 and 1996. It hiked once in 1997, then cut again in 1998 during the LTCM crisis. It then re-hiked 175 basis points between June 1999 and May 2000. The recession began in March 2001, 21 months after that re-hike started and just 10 months after the final increase. Today’s sequence has the same shape: hikes in 2022 and 2023, cuts in 2024 and 2025, and a re-hike in September.

The table below lines up every tightening cycle since the late 1980s. Watch the last column. It shows how much tightening the bond market had already done when the Fed began hiking.

The closest match to today’s starting spread is 1999, the one cycle that took the least time to break something. Since 1989, the average lag from the final hike to a recession has been about 14 months, with a range of 10 to 18 months.8

This brings us to the entire question of this article: how much runway is left?

If the Fed delivers the rate hikes that the market currently expects, and history holds, it would be reasonable to expect economic troubles between late 2027 and mid-2028. However, I don’t trust that arithmetic this time.

With the 10-year already near 5%, mortgage and corporate borrowing costs reflect a far tighter stance than a 3.875% funds rate would imply, and the Fed’s own estimate of neutral is near 3.1%. Add a consumer whose spending rides on the stock market, and transmission runs through prices that reset daily. I’m reasonably confident the lag will be shorter than the historical average. I’m far less confident about the exact month, and anyone claiming precision here is guessing.

“The Fed doesn’t need to hike until something breaks. The bond market and a consumer living off its portfolio have already shortened the fuse.”

Where The Bulls Are Right

The bulls have a real case. The 1995 cycle ended in a “soft landing” even after the Fed doubled the funds rate in a single year, and the Fed’s own projections see unemployment at just 4.1% with solid growth. Productivity is strong, AI investment is running hot, and earnings keep beating. The Daily Shot’s long-history chart makes a fair point, too. A 5% 10-year yield is roughly the average since 1800 and well below the average since 1960. By that measure, rates are simply “normal” again, which is a view I share.

A question that I have been repeatedly asked of late is: “Ifhttps://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/normal-interest-rates-what-the-debt-panic-gets-wrong/ why would normal rates cause a recession?”

Because “normal” is relative to the debt and the dependencies built during the abnormal years. Normal rates on a far larger debt stock, and on households that sell assets to spend, don’t produce a normal outcome. Such is the cost of 15 years of zero rates and QE. As we often state, when everyone thinks one thing will happen, something else usually does. Currently, the consensus sees little downside risk.

What Fed Over-Tightening Risk Means For Investors

Howard Marks has long made the point that you can’t predict, but you can prepare. That applies here more than usual. The risk of Fed over-tightening doesn’t argue for dumping equities, but it does argue for recognizing that the asset-price channel now matters more to the economy than at any point in the last cycle. A 10% to 15% decline would hit the economy harder than in 2018. It would directly cut spending by the top income cohort.

In portfolio management terms, that means taking some actions today to protect against negative outcomes in the future.

- Rebalance winners to their target weights rather than chasing them.

- Keep exposure to rate-sensitive, consumer-dependent businesses measured.

- It also means respecting what a 5% Treasury yield offers patient investors.
As my colleague Michael Lebowitz laid out in https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/has-the-bond-market-already-done-the-feds-job/, long rates hit housing, refinancing, and valuations with a lag, so much of that damage hasn’t arrived yet. The watch list is short. Track the 10-year above 5%, the ISM employment indexes, the JPMorgan withdrawal data, and the saving rate. When the withdrawal channel slows while the Fed is still hiking, that’s your signal.

Bottom line:The bond market and an asset-dependent consumer have already done much of the Fed’s work, so each additional hike raises the risk of Fed over-tightening far faster than the historical lag suggests.

The Fed is hiking to prove it can beat inflation. The danger is that it proves the point with the one economy that can’t afford to lose.

https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden
Mon, 10/26/2026 - 14:20

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/fed-over-tightening-how-much-runway-left-it-bites

"Crackgate" Begins: Apple Aware Of Duo Screens Breaking ...

2026-10-26T18:00:00Z

"Crackgate" Begins: Apple Aware Of Duo Screens Breaking As Complaints Mount

"Crackgate" Begins: Apple Aware Of Duo Screens Breaking As Complaints Mount

The iPhone Duo has a lead time of about 79 days, Bank of America analysts said on Monday. International availability for the new foldable handset is now expected in mid-to-late January, as Apple Stores nationwide sell out of inventory.

Apple Confirms "Crackgate"

*APPLE IPHONE DUO DRAWS EARLY COMPLAINTS OF THE SCREEN CRACKING
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) https://x.com/zerohedge/status/2114761563336749407?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
Consumers have had the Duo since last Friday, when it first became available. Resellers have https://www.zerohedge.com/technology/iphone-duo-resellers-demand-steep-premiums-apple-stores-sell-out-deliveries-slip-january for a heafty premium, and popular influencers have already https://www.zerohedge.com/technology/polished-rough-first-major-review-casts-doubt-foldable-iphone-duos-mass-adoption the device, which some have described as an "iPad that can fit in your pocket."

But just days into the launch, a number of troubling reports on X and Reddit show these new smartphones are breaking within hours of use.

These reports first surfaced on X and Reddit early in the weekend:

iPhone Duo broken screen compilation 🤣 https://t.co/78z2W8ZACs
— I Hate Apple (@iHateApplee) https://x.com/iHateApplee/status/2114302874528207304?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw

Some early iPhone Duo owners are reporting that the inner screen cracked along the hinge after just a few folds One buyer said their $2,000 phone broke after fewer than 20 openings, though Apple hasn’t said how many phones are affected https://t.co/SEPaBbPwnA
— Interesting AF (@interesting_aIl) https://x.com/interesting_aIl/status/2114756443413078151?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
By Monday morning, Bloomberg had confirmed the reports:

In these cases, customers reported hearing a crunching sound when unfolding the phone, followed by a large crack forming along the center crease. Some users also experienced a white patch or other display malfunction on the right side of the screen.

Venture capitalist Jonathan King told the outlet he heard a "crunch-like sound" when he opened his new Duo on Monday.

"I had all intent to post a positive review of my Duo experience today, until it happened to me," King said. "The smaller outer screen works just fine, but the inner screen is now unusable," King said.

"Crackgate" Begins

Someone broke their own iPhone Duo to reveal what might be causing the #crackgate https://t.co/aJczaEVeH5
— Abhishek Bhatnagar (@abhishek) https://x.com/abhishek/status/2114646365867516221?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw

the iPhone Duo broke after 75k folds very disappointing to see for a ~ $2000 phone https://t.co/Q08NlL5S2Q
— Holly - I like tech (@AnxiousHolly) https://x.com/AnxiousHolly/status/2114758896203997189?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw

🚨 iPhone Duo #Crackgate exposed? A Korean video suggests the issue could be structural and hinge-related, not just a quality control problem. 😳 If true, this could affect any unit. Apple needs to investigate. https://t.co/sOx7NXSRv7
— Rajesh Rajput (Technobuzz) (@iRaj_r) https://x.com/iRaj_r/status/2114525808090030145?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
The Potential Failure Point

CEO John Ternus, who recently took the reins from Tim Cook, has dismissed competing foldable handsets as "cheap and crappy.” At the same time, Apple's head of hardware engineering, Tom Marieb, recently encouraged customers to hold Apple "accountable" for the foldable screen's durability.

* * *

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Mon, 10/26/2026 - 14:00

https://www.zerohedge.com/technology/crackgate-begins-apple-aware-duo-screens-breaking-complaints-mount

Serbian Student-Led Movement Ousts Vucic In Huge Upset, Opening ...

2026-10-26T17:20:00Z

Serbian Student-Led Movement Ousts Vucic In Huge Upset, Opening Door To EU

Serbian Student-Led Movement Ousts Vucic In Huge Upset, Opening Door To EU

Serbia finds itself in a new political reality on Monday, after Sunday night saw former President Aleksandar Vučić concede defeat following the 14-year rule of his right-wing party, called in English (ironically enough) the Serbian Progressive Party (SNS). Vučić's long-running total dominance in Serbian politics has effectively come to an end.

There were wide reports of high turnout among the country's 6.4 million voters on Sunday, the end result which saw the youth-backed Students’ List take 140 seats, while Vučić's SNS party took 103.

"The Students’ List has won," Vučić told supporters by the night's close, while hinting at 'interference' by unnamed European countries and an "American deep state."

This was the culmination of many months of large student-led protests targeting his government. The protest movement has actually stretched back a couple years, at times getting violent, including witnessing fierce clashes with police.

Vucic's opponents, including outside the country among EU officials, accused him and his allies of deep corruption which allegedly included ties to organize crime, and initiating greater government control of the media and overall centralization.

The Serbian leader has maintained warm ties with Russia, which has also made him a target of his pro-EU critics. He at times in the past openly accused the West of trying but failing to topple him.

Interestingly, as the youth-led protests grew, Moscow itself weighed in and https://tass.ru/politika/24388781 Western countries with backing a "color revolution" in the Balkan state.

Vučić had consistently resisted Western pressure to impose sanctions on Russia over the Ukraine war...

Serbia's Vučić after conceding defeat in election: It won’t pass until March or April, you will have sanctions introduced against the Russian Federation. https://t.co/jf6bfdOGc7
— Clash Report (@clashreport) https://x.com/clashreport/status/2114469187003580599?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
For example, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov in 2025 complained, "We hope Western countries, which often exploit domestic affairs in other states to advance their interests, will refrain from color revolutions this time."

EU leaders and senior European officials are meanwhile hailing the Student List's election win, expressing readiness to assist with reforms inside Serbia, and even cooperating on a future path to EU membership.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said on X, "Congratulations to the Student List on its victory in the parliamentary elections. We stand ready to support reforms on the rule of law, media freedom, the fight against corruption and strong democratic institutions, and to work together to advance Serbia’s future in the European Union."

via ReutersAlso, European Council President António Costa has https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/kremlin-warns-west-against-backing-color-revolution-serbia-protests-grow, "We stand ready to support reforms on the rule of law, media freedom, the fight against corruption and strong democratic institutions, and to work together to build Serbia’s future in the European Union."

https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden
Mon, 10/26/2026 - 13:20

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/serbian-student-led-movement-ousts-vucic-huge-upset-opening-door-eu

Former DOGE Staffers Hacked Into Anthropic's Internal Systems ...

2026-10-26T17:00:00Z

Former DOGE Staffers Hacked Into Anthropic's Internal Systems In 12 Hours - And What They Found Is Alarming

Former DOGE Staffers Hacked Into Anthropic's Internal Systems In 12 Hours - And What They Found Is Alarming

A months-old cybersecurity startup founded by former DOGE staffers says its AI agents found paths into Anthropic's internal systems in under 12 hours, the Washington Post https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2026/10/26/researchers-cybersecurity-start-up-cathedral-got-inside-anthropic/ Monday, citing a draft report it reviewed. The company, Cathedral, says it reached meeting transcripts, salary and job-offer details, and Slack messages about Anthropic's most advanced models. The breach was not in Claude itself - the hackers exploited flaws in third-party business software, the kind of administrative and sales tools most companies run. The Post withheld the vendors' names.

Photo via GeekWireCathedral reported the findings to Anthropic earlier this month through Anthropic's bug bounty program, which pays outside researchers to disclose flaws, and told the affected vendors too. Its draft calls the result evidence of "a serious gap between the offensive capabilities now emerging and the defenses," and says its "data accesses were kept to the absolute minimum." A Cathedral spokeswoman declined to comment to the Post.

Anthropic says the breach was much narrower - that Cathedral reached "a limited set" of its sales, HR and IT systems, including some customer and partner business contacts and basic user account records, and that it cut off the startup's access the same day. It says Claude users' conversations, source code and model weights were not touched, that its own monitoring flagged some of the activity before Cathedral reported it, and that it has no evidence anyone else exploited the flaws, https://gizmodo.com/former-doge-staffers-new-startup-claims-it-hacked-anthropic-2000830560 and https://techstartups.com/2026/10/26/ex-doge-ai-cybersecurity-startup-cathedral-breaches-anthropics-internal-systems-in-under-12-hours-using-ai-agents-exposing-sensitive-employee-data/ report. Anthropic also says the researchers spent several days failing to break into its software directly before turning to the vendors' applications.

It accuses Cathedral of breaking the bounty program's rules by not disclosing all of its activity, and of overstating the "implied national security implications." It switched off the affected software until the vendors fixed it and briefed federal officials.

A security expert who reviewed the findings at the Post's request said Cathedral "found something big." Alex Stamos, chief information security officer at Cognition, reviewed them. "They found something big here," he said, adding that Anthropic "could have done a lot better" in overseeing outside software vendors. Cognition uses models from Anthropic and other labs. A senior Trump administration official told the Post the report had circulated inside the government and raised national security concerns: "If a bunch of kids who have just started a company can do this, then potentially, the Chinese aren't far behind."

Cathedral is no obscure shop. Gizmodo lists its founders as Gavin Kliger, Luke Farritor, Marko Elez and Jack Stein, all DOGE alumni. Kliger was the Pentagon's chief data officer and is reportedly tied to the Pentagon's legal dispute with Anthropic. Reuters reported in July that Cathedral raised $160 million at a $1.4 billion valuation, backed by Andreessen Horowitz and Sequoia, and the senior official told the Post that three federal agencies have recently signed contracts with it.

The disclosure lands as Anthropic is courting public investors. On Monday the company https://www.zerohedge.com/ai/anthropics-s-1-out-974-million-operating-profit-800-billion-compute-bill-and-elon-musk-landlord its S-1, showing $974 million operating profit against an $800 billion compute bill. The security question for a lab pitching itself as the careful one is now a concrete incident, and the two sides disagree on how big it was.
h/t https://capital.news/subscribe

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Mon, 10/26/2026 - 13:00

https://www.zerohedge.com/political/former-doge-staffers-hacked-anthropics-internal-systems-12-hours-and-what-they-found

FBI Arrests CIA Contractor Accused Of Leaking Classified Defense ...

2026-10-26T16:45:00Z

FBI Arrests CIA Contractor Accused Of Leaking Classified Defense Secrets To Romantic Partner

FBI Arrests CIA Contractor Accused Of Leaking Classified Defense Secrets To Romantic Partner

https://amgreatness.com/2026/10/25/fbi-arrests-cia-contractor-accused-of-leaking-classified-defense-secrets-to-romantic-partner/,

The FBI https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/us-government-contractor-arrested-allegedly-leaking-national-defense-information for allegedly leaking highly classified national defense information to a romantic partner who operated an online publication known for publishing sensitive government intelligence.

Ian A. Brinksman, 42, of Washington, D.C., faces federal charges of unlawfully transmitting national defense information following a search of his residence.

https://www.justice.gov/opa/media/1468496/dl?inline Brinksman allegedly accessed sensitive intelligence outside his official responsibilities and provided it to an individual who published classified material on Substack.

Attorney General Todd Blanche condemned the alleged breach, emphasizing the Trump administration's commitment to protecting America's national security secrets.

"National defense information is classified to protect the American people from bad actors around the world who wish to do us harm," Blanche said.

Brinksman began working for a federal agency in Virginia in 2020 before becoming a systems integration developer for a government contractor in 2022. He maintained a Top Secret security clearance with access to Sensitive Compartmented Information.

Federal investigators allege Brinksman shared classified information with a romantic partner who operated a Substack publication. In September, the individual reportedly acknowledged publishing stories based on classified intelligence assessments and openly solicited additional leaks.

FBI Director Kash Patel warned that individuals who exploit government security clearances will face serious consequences.

"Protecting America's secrets is a top counterintelligence priority of this FBI," Patel said.

CIA Director John Ratcliffe confirmed the arrest followed a referral from his agency.

"The unauthorized release of classified material poses grave risks to our national security, intelligence sources, ongoing operations, and our officers," Ratcliffe said.

Assistant Attorney General John Eisenberg accused Brinksman of deliberately obtaining classified intelligence unrelated to his duties and passing it to someone he knew intended to publish it.

"That is not carelessness. It is a betrayal of his oath and the American people who entrusted him to fulfill his duties honorably," Eisenberg said.

Federal prosecutors say the alleged conduct could constitute a serious violation of the Espionage Act.

The FBI's Chicago Field Office is leading the investigation, with assistance from its Washington Field Office.

https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden
Mon, 10/26/2026 - 12:45

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/fbi-arrests-cia-contractor-accused-leaking-classified-defense-secrets-romantic-partner

NANO's Laser Partner Finally Files For IPO: LIS Technologies ...

2026-10-26T16:15:00Z

NANO's Laser Partner Finally Files For IPO: LIS Technologies Wants $17 Million To Fix America's Enrichment Problem

NANO's Laser Partner Finally Files For IPO: LIS Technologies Wants $17 Million To Fix America's Enrichment Problem

We have been previewing this one since January. On Monday morning, it finally arrived.

LIS Technologies (LIST), the Oak Ridge laser enrichment startup in which NANO Nuclear (NNE) is a shareholder, strategic partner, landlord and, through chairman Jay Yu, something close to a sibling, https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1973276/000149315226048438/forms-1.htm for a Nasdaq IPO under the ticker "LIS." The terms: 2,833,334 shares at $5 to $7, or about $17 million at the $6 midpoint, with Titan Partners as lead bookrunner. The public filing follows a confidential DRS submitted on July 20 and amended on September 10, so the company has been quietly working on this all summer, right around the time it was buying buildings, shipping uranium and clearing NRC security reviews (all of which we covered as they happened).

At the midpoint, LIS would have a market cap of roughly $447 million on 74.4 million post-IPO shares, and closer to $620 million fully diluted by our math once you count the ~29 million options, RSUs and warrants outstanding. For context, NANO Nuclear itself was valued at $643 million this morning, with the stock at $12.04, a fresh 52-week low and 76% below its $49.50 high, marking the nadir of unprecedented anti-nuclear https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/everyone-wants-nuclear-power-nobody-wants-nuclear-stocks-inside-great-uprate-rush. The pre-revenue laser startup is asking to be valued at about the same as its own (also pre-revenue, but $580 million-liquidity-holding) partner.

Regular readers know why we have been fixated on this name since the day it announced its $1.38 billion plant: as we put it on January 16, it was "bullish for LIST partner NNE."

LIS Technologies to invest $1.38BN in commercial scale laser-based uranium enrichment facility on footprint of the K-25 Uranium Enrichment Site in Oak Ridge. Bullish for LIST partner NNE https://t.co/Dcfbg4yN6h
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) https://x.com/zerohedge/status/2012194834514128899?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
So what does the S-1 actually tell us about LIS, about NANO, and about America's nuclear fuel pipeline? Quite a lot, as it turns out, and not all of it will make it into the roadshow deck.

The Terms: $17 Million, Titan Partners And A Very Familiar Playbook

The basics first. LIS is offering 2,833,334 shares on a firm-commitment basis, plus a 30-day option on another 425,000. The underwriting discount is 6.5%, plus a 0.5% expense allowance, and Titan gets warrants on 7% of the deal struck at 115% of the IPO price. Net proceeds come to about $15.1 million at the midpoint ($17.5 million if the shoe is exercised). Officers and directors are locked up for 180 days, and both CEO Jay Yu and president Christo Liebenberg have indicated interest in buying up to $250,000 of stock each in the deal.

Where does the money go? About 67.5% to R&D, site work on LIST Island and testing, 20% to working capital... and 12.5%, or roughly $1.9 million, to "marketing and promotion, and business development activities." Every nuclear renaissance needs a marketing budget, apparently.

The underwriter choice is worth flagging too. Titan Partners was the sole placement agent on NANO's own $400 million at-the-market private placement in October 2025, and NANO itself went public in May 2024 with a tiny $10.25 million IPO at $4 a share. Same chairman, same micro-IPO-then-raise-big template. Given that NNE trades 3x above its IPO price even after a 76% drawdown, maybe LIS insiders can be forgiven for running it back.

And the insiders have done very well already. The S-1 lays out every private round, and each one priced above the last: $0.75 in the 2024 seed round (where NANO wrote its $2 million check), $1.80 in the December 2024 angel round, $3.00 in Series A, $3.50 in January's $17.1 million Series B and $4.00 in a $7.1 million March round. All told, LIS has raised about $70.6 million privately; the IPO midpoint is 8x where NANO got in.

https://assets.zerohedge.com/s3fs-public/inline-images/ZH%20-%20LIS%20funding%20rounds%20price%20ladder%20-%202026-10-26.pngWhy It Matters: America Burns More Than Three Times The SWU It Can Make

Strip away the related-party plumbing and the pitch is simple: the US can't enrich enough uranium to fuel its own reactors, and Washington just set a hard deadline to stop buying the stuff from Russia.

The S-1 cites UxC's Q1 2026 Enrichment Market report: projected US requirements run from about 11 million SWU (Separative Work Units) in 2045 in the low case to about 39 million SWU if nuclear capacity triples, against current US domestic enrichment capacity of "less than 5 million SWU per year." That leaves, in the company's words, "a projected supply gap of approximately 6 million to 35 million SWU per year." Here is the UxC chart straight out of the filing:

https://assets.zerohedge.com/s3fs-public/inline-images/LIS%20S-1%20-%20UxC%20US%20enrichment%20requirements%20scenarios%202026-2045.pngNote the starting point, which the S-1 skips over: UxC has US requirements at roughly 16 million SWU today. In other words, even UxC's bear case for 2045 needs twice the enrichment America can currently produce, and the gap is already here. It's filled with imports from Urenco's European plants, Orano and, until January 2028, Russia. As Bloomberg reported in July, citing EIA data, Russia supplied almost 26% of US reactor operators' enrichment purchases in 2025, or about 3.28 million SWU. The DOE's waiver authority under the 2024 import ban expires no later than January 2028, and DOE officials have said there are no plans to extend it (as https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/doe-demands-faster-uranium-enrichment-buildout-whos-answering-call).

https://assets.zerohedge.com/s3fs-public/inline-images/ZH%20-%20US%20SWU%20gap%20vs%20LIS%20capacity%20-%202026-10-26.pngPut LIS's own plans in that context. The pilot plant is designed for about 0.5 million SWU around 2030, and the full LEU-3 facility for 5 million SWU around 2033, for a combined ~5.5 million SWU, or roughly a third of what US reactors consume today. Ambitious for a company whose test facility is a 14,000 square foot former K-25 badging office; still nowhere near enough for the country on its own.

The market is already pricing the scarcity. As Jefferies' uranium team noted in its latest https://marketdesk.ai/standalone/1l5znLarYie (https://www.zerohedge.com/signup/professional-membership-year), spot enrichment hit a series high of $215/SWU in August and held there in September, against $181/SWU long term, with the bank noting that "spot SWU prices the scarcity of enrichment services available sooner."

https://assets.zerohedge.com/s3fs-public/inline-images/Jefferies%20Fig15%20-%20SWU%20spot%20vs%20long-term_0.pngWashington, as usual, has responded by writing checks. In January the DOE handed $900 million each to Centrus' American Centrifuge Operating, General Matter and Orano, plus $28 million to Global Laser Enrichment. LIS is one of six companies on the DOE's ten-year LEU acquisition IDIQ contract, but the S-1 is refreshingly candid about what that's worth: the contract "does not fund the construction or operation of any enrichment facility," and LIS "do[es] not currently rely on this program for funding." Total government money received to date, by our count: a $181,042 DOE task order and a $74,866 Air Force SBIR award. About a quarter of a million dollars, or roughly 0.01% of what the incumbents got in January.

The competitive landscape in the filing reads like a who's who of better-funded rivals: Centrus (licensed, Piketon), Urenco (licensed, Eunice), Orano (NRC review of its Oak Ridge centrifuge plant expected April 2027), Silex and Cameco's Global Laser Enrichment (laser, Paducah, NRC review expected January 2027) and the Thiel-backed General Matter. Even the incumbent is finding the buildout hard: BofA cut its Centrus (LEU) price objective by 10%, the only uranium name in its coverage to get a cut, "to reflect the rising complexity of its substantial U.S. enrichment capacity build-out" (in the bank's https://marketdesk.ai/standalone/IxZEVNHi0QM note, also available to pro subs). And LIS isn't the only laser story heading for public markets either: Goldman's Brian Lee hosted ASP Isotopes' soon-to-be-spun-off Quantum Leap Energy on October 8, focused on "the broader opportunity to address growing bottlenecks across the Western nuclear fuel cycle" (https://marketdesk.ai/standalone/5fkd2qLNcX5 for pro subs).

LIS's pitch against all of them: it is, "based on our public research," "the only company with a U.S.-origin and patented laser uranium enrichment technology." In a fuel market being rebuilt explicitly around national security, that's probably the single most valuable sentence in the filing.

The NANO Connection: One Chairman, Two Companies

For NNE holders, the S-1 is the most detailed look yet at what NANO actually owns, and the answer is: less than most people assume.

NANO holds 2,666,667 LIS shares, bought on August 8, 2024 at $0.75 for $2 million. That works out to about 3.6% of LIS after the IPO, which is below the 5% threshold, so NANO doesn't even appear in the principal stockholders table. At the $6 midpoint the stake is worth ~$16 million, a tidy 8x, but also just ~2.5% of NNE's current market cap. If you were buying NNE for "exposure to laser enrichment," the S-1 suggests you were mostly buying exposure to... Jay Yu.

Because the person who really owns LIS is NANO's chairman. Yu beneficially owns 21.8 million shares, or 25.1% after the offering, most of it through his wholly owned I Financial Ventures, including 12.4 million vested options. Those options are a story in themselves: 7.4 million of them were granted in May 2024 at $0.75 with a 20-year expiry (most of the other grants run four to six years), and all of his option grants vested on the day they were granted. At the midpoint his stake is worth roughly $131 million before exercise costs. Not bad for a company he runs part-time... and we mean that literally. Per the risk factors, Yu "is expected to continue to serve" as NANO's President, Secretary, Treasurer and Chairman and "devote no less than 40 hours per week to the business affairs of NANO Nuclear," while at LIS he is required to devote only "such of his business time and attention" as needed.

https://assets.zerohedge.com/s3fs-public/inline-images/ZH%20-%20Who%20owns%20LIS%20post-IPO%20-%202026-10-26.pngThe commercial relationship is equally loose. The joint collaboration agreement, first signed on November 4, 2024 and amended and restated on September 8, 2026 (i.e., seven weeks before the S-1), sketches a closed loop: i) NANO "will work towards developing the necessary uranium conversion facilities" to supply UF6 feedstock, ii) LIS provides enriched and deconverted fuel back to NANO, iii) each gets reciprocal "preferred customer" status, and iv) the two share costs and jointly developed IP. But read the fine print:

As of the date of this prospectus, we and NANO Nuclear have not yet entered into any definitive agreement regarding the foregoing commercial terms... including with respect to the applicable profit-sharing arrangements, pricing, allocation of costs and expenses, responsibilities of the parties, and other commercial terms.

In other words, the "LIST supplies NANO enriched UF6 at no cost in exchange for a share of profits" structure that both companies have been touting since 2024 is still an intention, two years later. Meanwhile the plumbing that does exist is mostly real estate: LIS leases its 7,000 sq ft Oak Ridge headquarters from NANO on a 10-year lease at $7,000 a month, and the two share a Project Management Office. As we said when https://www.zerohedge.com/technology/gas-station-gets-its-gas-nanos-laser-enrichment-partner-takes-delivery-its-first-uranium in October, the related-party questions aren't going away, and a public listing just put a quarterly 10-Q spotlight on them.

To be fair, the logic of the pairing remains intact. NANO has been methodically buying the boxes on either side of enrichment: transport (Secured Transportation Services in May), deconversion (the https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/nano-nuclear-buys-one-thing-you-cant-speed-fuel-cycle-license on October 1), and the reactors themselves. Here is the map we drew at the time; LIS is the box in the middle that NANO doesn't actually control:

https://assets.zerohedge.com/s3fs-public/inline-images/ZH%20-%20NANO%20fuel-cycle%20stack_1.pngAnd as we noted when the NRC signed off on LIS's security plan two weeks ago, the market has been unimpressed with all of it:

NRC Approves Security Plan For NANO's Laser Enrichment Partner As SWU Spot Hit Record HIgh https://t.co/gqRgYn8iCo
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) https://x.com/zerohedge/status/2110750824972365978?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
NNE was at $12.58 that day with short interest near a record ~40% of float. It's at $12.04 this morning, and touched a new 52-week low of $11.74 right as the S-1 hit. The IPO does at least give NNE holders a mark-to-market on a stake that until today was carried at whatever you wanted to believe; whether the shorts read the S-1 as a catalyst or as confirmation is the next fun question.

Show Me The Money: $34 Million In Hand, $74 Million Planned, $1.38 Billion Needed

Now for the part of the S-1 that tends to get skipped. LIS is pre-revenue and has accumulated $65.4 million of losses since inception. The net loss for the nine months to July 31 was $29.7 million, up from $18.2 million a year earlier, and G&A ($15.8 million) still exceeds R&D ($11.4 million), helped by $10.5 million of equity compensation. Cash used in operations more than doubled to $14.8 million, and capex jumped to $24.9 million as the company bought and renovated property in Oak Ridge.

The result: cash fell from $33.2 million last October to $18.8 million at the end of July. Add the $15.1 million of IPO proceeds and LIS will have, generously, around $34 million (less whatever it spent in August through October). Against that, the S-1 says the company plans to spend about $74 million over the next twelve months: $18 million on opex, $28 million on CRISLA lab work, $4 million on "other proprietary processes" and $24 million on scaled facility development. And then there's the small matter of the $1.38 billion LEU-3 plant.

https://assets.zerohedge.com/s3fs-public/inline-images/ZH%20-%20LIS%20cash%20vs%20spending%20plans%20-%202026-10-26.pngThe going-concern language is a small masterpiece of the genre. Under the current plan, LIS says, existing cash "is expected to fund operations only into the first quarter of fiscal 2027," which starts next week (LIS's fiscal year ends October 31). That, the company concedes, raises "substantial doubt about our ability to continue as a going concern." But:

a substantial portion of our planned expenditures is discretionary, and management has the ability and intent, if financing is not obtained on a timely basis, to defer or sequence those expenditures (including scaled facility development and a substantial portion of planned CRISLA Process laboratory activities)... Management has concluded that these plans have alleviated the substantial doubt.

Translation: if we can't raise money, we'll stop doing the enrichment work, and then we'll be fine. Which is technically true. The filing also flags a Tennessee incentive package with "an estimated aggregate potential value of more than $200 million," of which nothing has been received yet. So, to state the obvious, this $17 million IPO is a down payment on many more raises to come, and anyone buying it should price in the dilution that funds the next $1.3 billion.

The Clock: "Before 2030" Becomes "Around 2033"

The other quiet change is the timeline. When LIS unveiled its $1.38 billion project in January, https://www.zerohedge.com/technology/lis-technologies-launches-14-billion-laser-uranium-enrichment-project-tennessee The S-1 now lays out four overlapping phases: re-demonstrate and optimize CRISLA through 2027; build industrial-scale equipment through 2028; license and build a 0.5 million SWU pilot plant "in or around 2030"; and then the commercial LEU-3 facility, "in or around 2033," starting at 3 million SWU and expanding to 5 million. You could argue the pilot plant counts as "initial operations." You'd probably have to argue it with a straight face.

Then there's the technology itself. CRISLA is a "U.S.-origin laser-based isotope enrichment process initially demonstrated in the early 1990s" by its inventor, Dr. Jeff Eerkens, and the immediate goal over the next twelve months is to "re-demonstrate and optimize enrichment results" his team achieved in 1993. LIS plans to initially use "the same proven legacy lasers used in 1987-1993 demonstrations," which it says were restored to "fully operational condition" as of May 30, 2026, while it develops its own laser systems with Starfire Industries (which, for what it's worth, holds 2.25 million LIS shares that vest only if milestones are hit). The S-1 is upfront that "there can be no assurance" the SEIT work "will successfully replicate those prior results." Lasers have broken plenty of hearts in enrichment before: ask anyone who worked on AVLIS, shelved in 1999 after billions in spending, or Global Laser Enrichment (the Silex/Cameco venture formerly run by GE-Hitachi), still not commercial after nearly two decades.

On the other hand, the regulatory boxes are getting ticked at a pace the nuclear industry usually doesn't recognize: a Tennessee radioactive materials license in December, the https://www.zerohedge.com/technology/gas-station-gets-its-gas-nanos-laser-enrichment-partner-takes-delivery-its-first-uranium on October 8, and https://www.zerohedge.com/technology/nrc-approves-security-plan-nanos-laser-enrichment-partner-swu-spot-hit-record-high a week later. Here is our updated timeline:

https://assets.zerohedge.com/s3fs-public/inline-images/ZH%20-%20LIS%20milestones%20timeline%20-%202026-10-26.pngBuying The Gas Station Before The Cars Show Up

Finally, the timing. LIS is walking into one of the worst nuclear IPO windows in recent memory. In September Holtec https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/bechtel-splits-terrapower-holtec-postpones-ipo, citing deteriorating investor sentiment. As we detailed earlier today in "https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/everyone-wants-nuclear-power-nobody-wants-nuclear-stocks-inside-great-uprate-rush,"; X-energy just signed its second Amazon-backed project with the stock 71% below its high, and Goldman's Brian Lee calculates in his latest https://marketdesk.ai/standalone/XzYJ3jkHDuv that the bank's nuclear coverage returned -21% over the past three months versus +3% for the S&P (also available to pro subs).

https://assets.zerohedge.com/s3fs-public/inline-images/GS%20Nuclear%20Nuggets%20Ex13%20-%20Nuclear%20coverage%20vs%20S%26P%20500_0.pngPositioning tells the same story. Goldman's derivatives desk put it bluntly in its "https://marketdesk.ai/standalone/XXBbGec0qlT"; Marquee note: "Nuclear investment continues to accelerate, but investor positioning remains subdued," with long/short ratios in the bank's uranium basket near the low end of recent ranges. The fundamentals keep improving and the money keeps leaving, as we discussed earlier in "https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/everyone-wants-nuclear-power-nobody-wants-nuclear-stocks-inside-great-uprate-rush.";

https://assets.zerohedge.com/s3fs-public/inline-images/GS%20-%20Uranium%20Basket%20GSXURANI%20Positioning%20At%20Lows_0.pngWhich brings us to the obvious question: is a $17 million laser enrichment IPO a sign of froth, or a contrarian entry point? We lean toward the latter for the theme and stay more skeptical of the vehicle. The enrichment bottleneck is about as real as anything in the nuclear trade: spot SWU is at a record, Russian supply legally ends in 14 months, and even UxC's low case needs twice the capacity the US has today. If any slice of nuclear should collect rent in the 2030s, it's whoever controls the fuel, a point we've been making since January. And as Goldman's own data shows, the trade is about as unloved as it gets.

But LIS shareholders will be buying an option on a 1993 experiment, with less than half of next year's budget in the bank and a $1.38 billion plant still to finance. The IPO is the cheapest money LIS will ever raise as a public company... or the most expensive, depending on whether those decades-old lasers do what the patent says. We'll know a lot more when TRL 5 data comes in, probably sometime next year. Until then, for NNE holders at least, the gas station finally has a price tag, even if it still has no cars.

Much more in the full LIS Technologies https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1973276/000149315226048438/forms-1.htm, plus Jefferies' "https://marketdesk.ai/standalone/1l5znLarYie,"; BofA's "https://marketdesk.ai/standalone/IxZEVNHi0QM,"; and Goldman's "https://marketdesk.ai/standalone/XzYJ3jkHDuv"; and "https://marketdesk.ai/standalone/5fkd2qLNcX5"; notes, all available to https://www.zerohedge.com/signup/professional-membership-year.

https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden
Mon, 10/26/2026 - 12:15

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/nanos-laser-partner-finally-files-ipo-lis-technologies-wants-17-million-fix-americas

'Botch Job': After Judge's Ruling Riddled With AI ...

2026-10-26T16:00:00Z

'Botch Job': After Judge's Ruling Riddled With AI Errors, Appeals Court Allows Mississippi DEI Ban To Take Effect

'Botch Job': After Judge's Ruling Riddled With AI Errors, Appeals Court Allows Mississippi DEI Ban To Take Effect

https://www.thecollegefix.com/botch-job-after-judges-ruling-riddled-with-ai-errors-appeals-court-allows-mississippi-dei-ban-to-take-effect/,

A preliminary injunction blocking enforcement of an anti-DEI law in Mississippi has been vacated by the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Fifth Circuit after it was determined the judge who issued the ruling used AI and presented flawed legal analysis.

In a sharp rebuke, the Fifth Circuit called the proceedings in the district court "a botch job, to say the least."

"Judge Henry Wingate issued a temporary restraining order ('TRO') enjoining enforcement of H.B. 1193 that contained several factual assertions nowhere to be found in the record, or indeed, in any proceeding of the case," the Fifth Circuit https://www.ca5.uscourts.gov/opinions/pub/25/25-60496-CV0.pdf Oct. 22.

"Those included mention of plaintiffs and defendants not in the complaint, supposed 'declarations' from non-existent or never-present individuals, false quotations purporting to be taken from the text of H.B. 1193, and several erroneous claims that the law had already led to the demise of apparently fictitious programs," it added.

The case must now be assigned to a different judge, the Fifth Circuit ruled, noting Wingate also based his decision "on impoverished legal analysis that barely paid lip-service to the precedents of the Supreme Court or this court, seeming at times purposely to misconstrue the law by manipulating the words of statutes and cases, without regard to their texts' meaning as a whole."

"The district court - or perhaps, being charitable, its AI agent - ignored and manipulated governing law, apparently to satisfy a policy agenda."

The decision permits Mississippi to enforce the law while the legal challenges proceed.

The law bars K-12 schools, community colleges, and public universities from maintaining DEI offices, mandating diversity training, or teaching on certain "divisive concepts" regarding race, sex, and gender identity. Schools risk losing state funding if they are found in violation.

https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden
Mon, 10/26/2026 - 12:00

https://www.zerohedge.com/political/botch-job-after-judges-ruling-riddled-ai-errors-appeals-court-allows-mississippi-dei-ban

Anthropic's S-1 Is Out: A $974 Million Operating Profit, An ...

2026-10-26T15:42:00Z

Anthropic's S-1 Is Out: A $974 Million Operating Profit, An $800 Billion Compute Bill, And Elon Musk As Landlord

Anthropic's S-1 Is Out: A $974 Million Operating Profit, An $800 Billion Compute Bill, And Elon Musk As Landlord

Afterhttps://www.zerohedge.com/ai/807-billion-red-ink-and-600-billion-tab-inside-anthropics-updated-ipo-prospectusand one closed-door investor day, the real thing is finally here.

At precisely 9:00:11am ET, Anthropic PBC https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2130357/000162828026067168/anthropicpbc-sx1.htm with the SEC, applying to list its Class A shares on the Nasdaq Global Select Market under the ticker "ANT", with Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley leading a syndicate of no fewer than 22 banks. The price range and share count are, of course, still blank. So is something else, which we'll get to in a moment.

Regular readers know we have been all over this one: from the https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/leaked-anthropic-ipo-prospectus-shows-42bn-net-loss-518bn-unfunded-spending-commitments-and in late September (a $42 billion 2025 net loss and $518 billion in compute commitments), to the https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/anthropic-says-q3-revenue-jumped-168-billion-and-turned-adjusted-profitable-run-rate-math on Oct 14, to https://www.zerohedge.com/ai/807-billion-red-ink-and-600-billion-tab-inside-anthropics-updated-ipo-prospectus with its $80.7 billion half-year loss. On Oct 14 we said the public S-1 "will tell us what 'adjusted' means." It does, and it tells us a lot more besides: the first quarterly GAAP operating profit in the filing, a fully itemized compute bill that now runs to roughly $780-810 billion, and a governance structure in which public shareholders will never hold more than 49.9% of the vote.

In other words, the business got better, the bill got bigger, and the buyers get a minority voice by design. Let's take it piece by piece.

Finally, The Quarterlies

The leaks gave us half-year totals. The S-1 gives us the quarters, and they are spectacular. Revenue went from $376 million in Q1 2025 to $11.6 billion in Q2 2026, and the full-year line reads $41 million (2023), $386 million (2024) and $4.6 billion (2025). First-half 2026 revenue was $16.3 billion versus $1.16 billion a year earlier, or 14x.

Then there's the blank. The prospectus summary boasts that revenue grew from $0 at launch in Q1 2023 "to $ for the three months ended September 30, 2026." Yes, the Q3 number is literally a blank space in the prospectus summary. We already know what goes there: management told its investor day it was $16.8 billion, up about 45% from Q2. That is a great quarter by any normal standard, but as https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/anthropic-says-q3-revenue-jumped-168-billion-and-turned-adjusted-profitable-run-rate-math, it implied monthly growth collapsing from roughly a third to mid-single digits in August and September, which is why IPO investors promptly https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/aftershock-anthropic-ipo-investors-mark-valuation-down-15-trillion-growth-slowdown-sinks from $2 trillion.

*ANTHROPIC HAD $16.3B IN REVENUE IN FIRST HALF OF 2026: WSJ

that's it?
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/2112627795184501068
Two more disclosures about the shape of that revenue are worth flagging. First, "model versions released in the six months ended September 30, 2026 accounted for over 80% of our revenue" in Q3. Put differently, this is a treadmill: four-fifths of the money comes from products that didn't exist two quarters ago, so the company has to keep shipping frontier models just to stand still. Second, the business is seasonal in a way that will matter once growth normalizes: total customer spend fell about 20% in the two weeks to Jan 2, 2026 versus the prior two weeks, because nobody ships code over Christmas.

What "Adjusted" Means (And A Real Operating Profit)

Credit where it's due: Q2 2026 was the first quarter of GAAP operating profit in the filing, at $974 million, or an 8% margin, after an operating loss of $1.7 billion in Q1. For the full first half, the operating loss narrowed to just $693 million (a -4% margin) from $2.1 billion a year earlier.

The driver is plain operating leverage: compute and infrastructure fell from 251% of revenue in Q1 2025 to 48% in Q2 2026, and total operating expenses dropped below revenue (92%) for the first time. Anthropic's own framing is that revenue grew 1,368% y/y in Q2 while compute costs grew "only" 300%. (The Q3 2025 spike in the chart below is the $1.5 billion Bartz copyright settlement, which by itself was 109% of that quarter's revenue.)

https://assets.zerohedge.com/s3fs-public/inline-images/4PnVDlbkhpK7oAAAAASUVORK5CYII.jpgFlip it around and the improvement is even starker. In Q1 2025 every $1 of compute and infrastructure expense generated just 40 cents of revenue. By Q2 2026 the same dollar generated $2.08, a 5x improvement in five quarters, with the ratio crossing $1 for the first time in Q1 2026 ($1.40). That is the bull case in a single chart.

The catch is what comes next: the SpaceXAI contract alone runs about $9.3 billion a quarter once fully delivered in December, roughly 1.7x Anthropic's entire Q2 compute bill ($5.6 billion), and that's before Microsoft's $44.9 billion kicks in from November. Unless revenue keeps up, that ratio is about to get a lot less flattering.

As for "adjusted": the H1 Adjusted Operating Income of $1.6 billion (a 10% margin) is simply GAAP operating loss plus $2.2 billion of stock-based comp and $126 million of non-cash charitable contributions from the employee donation-matching program. That's it. The more interesting asterisk is elsewhere. Anthropic books revenue gross when it sells through AWS, Google Cloud and Azure marketplaces (it's the "principal"), and the fees it pays those channel partners go into "sales, marketing, and partnerships." That line went from $120 million in H1 2025 to $3.2 billion in H1 2026, nearly 20% of revenue. Book the marketplace sales net, the way OpenAI does, and both the top line and the growth rate shrink.

Also note what's coming: as of June 30 there was $26.6 billion of unrecognized stock-based compensation tied to RSUs, whose performance condition is satisfied when the S-1 goes effective. The filing warns that SBC will jump, "in particular the quarter in which this offering is completed." So enjoy the 8% GAAP operating margin while it lasts, probably just one more quarter.

The $72 Billion Paper Loss, Explained

Which brings us to the headline loss. Of the $80.7 billion H1 net loss, $72.4 billion came from marking up convertible notes, derivative liabilities and SAFEs, and $59.6 billion of that hit in Q2 alone. The S-1 says why: the charge was "largest in the three months ended June 30, 2026, reflecting the increase in our enterprise valuation in connection with our Series H financing."

The numbers behind that are remarkable. Anthropic sold Series G-1 preferred in January-February at $259.14 a share (raising $23.5 billion), then Series H-1 in May-June at $589.01 (raising $45.7 billion). That's a 2.3x markup in roughly four months, and every dollar of it flowed straight through the P&L as a loss on the instruments held by earlier backers (chiefly the Amazon notes, $6.2 billion of principal outstanding). Q2 also carried another $8.4 billion of "other expense," mostly tied to fair-value accounting on the new note purchase agreements. Put simply, the more the company is worth, the more money it "loses."

https://assets.zerohedge.com/s3fs-public/inline-images/ADf31PCnxHNMAAAAAElFTkSuQmCC.jpgThe balance sheet tells the same story: an accumulated deficit of $132.9 billion and a total stockholders' deficit of $127.6 billion as of June 30, propped up by $157.5 billion of redeemable convertible preferred. Meanwhile H1 operating cash flow was a positive $3.9 billion, against $110.8 billion of financing inflows. Anthropic has raised $141.1 billion to date and was sitting on $131.7 billion of cash and short-term investments at the end of June. It will need every penny.

The Bill: Now Itemized, And Now Bigger

Here's the part that matters. The leaked drafts spoke of "more than $600 billion" contracted and up to $750 billion including negotiations. The public S-1 names the counterparties and the amounts, and they add up to more:

- Broadcom: five-year master equipment leases for Google TPU hardware, with rent of about $161.2 billion excluding interest, accounted for as finance leases.

- Google Cloud: at least $114.5 billion from April 2026 to July 2033, "regardless of actual usage," with a true-up if Anthropic underspends. On top of that, Anthropic has committed to additional TPU compute from Google and other providers for 2028-2031, which it estimates at another $125-150 billion (excluded from the contractual table).

- SpaceXAI (formerly X.AI, now a SpaceX subsidiary): up to $120.5 billion for NVIDIA GPU compute into 2029.

- Amazon: at least $110 billion from May 2026 to April 2036, also with a true-up.

- Microsoft: at least $44.9 billion from November 2026 to May 2033, up from the $31 billion reported from the WSJ-reviewed draft (the deal was amended again in October).

- Nscale: up to $44.6 billion into 2033, and Lambda: about $41.3 billion into 2034, both NVIDIA GPUs.

- AMD: Helios rack-scale systems from 2027, with expected spend of "more than $20 billion" (also excluded from the table).
Add it up and the named deals come to roughly $637 billion of fixed or capped commitments, and roughly $780-810 billion once you include the company's own estimates for the TPU and AMD tranches. That's about 12x the ~$67 billion annualized Q3 revenue run rate, and about 6x the cash pile. (The S-1's own aggregate total, and the "due in the next 12 months" figure, are, naturally, left blank for now.)

*NSCALE, ANTHROPIC IN TALKS FOR $45 BILLION CLOUD COMPUTING DEAL

Is this for compute in 2040 when the UK finally has the electricity to power up the data center
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/2112263668616352183
(For the record, the Nscale deal that was "in talks" a week ago is in the S-1 at $44.6 billion, with a clause requiring Nscale to use "best efforts" to obtain financing for the GPUs and the data center. That's the AI buildout in one sentence: the tenant's lease depends on the landlord finding someone to lend it the money to build the building.)

Three details jump out.

1) Elon is the landlord. The single most surprising line in the filing is the SpaceXAI arrangement. Anthropic has agreed to pay a subsidiary of SpaceX, which owns its direct frontier-model rival, about $3.1 billion a month once all capacity is delivered, which it expects in December 2026. That's roughly $37 billion a year to one supplier, or about 80% of Q2's average monthly revenue of $3.85 billion. The only consolation: after initial non-cancelable periods ending in January and March 2027, either side can walk on 90 days' notice, which makes it the most flexible contract on the list (and also the one most likely to be repriced by the other side).

2) The vendors are the bank. Anthropic has an aggregate $77 billion of undrawn convertible note capacity: $20 billion from Google, $15 billion from Amazon and $42 billion from Broadcom. The Broadcom facility exists specifically to finance rent payments under the Broadcom lease. So Broadcom leases Anthropic $161 billion of chips, then stands ready (directly or through a "designated financial partner") to lend Anthropic up to $42 billion, convertible into stock, so Anthropic can pay Broadcom the rent. The lease obligations sit in two special-purpose subsidiaries, are guaranteed by the parent, secured by the equipment, and carry "customary events of default, including cross-defaults." Broadcom has already assigned part of one lease to "another third party." The company is candid about it: "a portion of our compute and infrastructure build-out has been funded or supported by capital or credit support provided or facilitated by certain of our CSPs and chip partners." Regular readers will recognize this from https://www.zerohedge.com/ai/forget-cdos-meet-ccos-isnt-tech-cycle-its-2008-silicon; it's the circular-financing structure we have been warning about since we went https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/inside-bottomless-pit-definitive-look-trillions-debt-funding-ai-supercycle of AI supercycle debt.

3) The landlords are also the cashier. Sales through the hyperscaler marketplaces were 48% of H1 2026 revenue, up from 11% in 2023, and those same platforms accounted for 58% of net receivables. So Amazon, Google and Microsoft are simultaneously Anthropic's biggest suppliers, its biggest distribution channel, its billing agent, its lenders, its shareholders (via non-voting Class N stock), and, as the filing concedes, its competitors.

https://assets.zerohedge.com/s3fs-public/inline-images/UCgUCoVCoVAoFAqFQqFQKBQKhUJ556AJ.jpgConcentration: Reframed, Not Gone

The WSJ draft's scariest line, that two customers made up about 20% of revenue, has been reworded in the public filing: no single customer exceeded 10% of revenue in the first nine months of 2026, and the top five made up about 25%. Anthropic also notes that 79% of Q3 revenue came from outside the top five, up from 64% in Q1. That's progress, but a quarter of revenue from five customers, "many" of whom are "not subject to long-term contracts," is still a thin layer of equity under three-quarters of a trillion in decade-long obligations.

The bull case is in there too: Net Revenue Retention of about 900%, more than 11,900 customers paying $100,000+ a year (from about 20 at end-2023), about 250 paying $10 million+, and revenue per employee of $6.6 million with a headcount of about 5,300 (from 940 at end-2024). Those are numbers no software company has ever printed. Then again, Ken Griffin https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/ken-griffin-says-ai-almost-certainly-bubble-corporate-america-opens-its-anthropic-and that corporate America is looking at its Anthropic and OpenAI bills and asking what it's getting for them, which is precisely the question a 900% NRR eventually has to answer.

One Share To Rule Them All

Then there's the governance, which makes Meta's dual-class look like a town hall. Immediately before the IPO, Anthropic will issue a single share of Class F common stock to an LLC owned by its seven co-founders. That one share carries 50.1% of the total vote on all matters, including the election of every director not picked by the Long-Term Benefit Trust. The LTBT, through its own single share of Class T stock, elects a majority of the board. So Class A holders are capped at 49.9% of the vote, and with the founders' single share controlling the vote on the non-Trust seats, they have no practical say over any board seat; Anthropic will be a Nasdaq "controlled company."

Add the public benefit plumbing: Anthropic has already contributed 846.8 million Class N shares, 5% of fully diluted stock, to its own Anthropic Public Benefit Fund (managed initially by Dario Amodei, Daniela Amodei, Jack Clark and Buddy Shah), and the board may issue up to another 2% every time the stock rises 50% above the prior milestone, starting from the IPO price. That's a dilution ratchet that kicks in precisely when shareholders are winning. The co-founders have each pledged 80% of their personal equity to charity, and five of them are listed among the selling stockholders in the deal.

*ANTHROPIC TO SHIFT SOME SHARES INTO NEW ‘PUBLIC GOOD’ FUND

so... $5,000/person?
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/2111882721203220754
Existential (and Political) Risks

And then there are the risk factors, which run to nearly 100 pages (pages 26-119) and read less like a software prospectus than a containment protocol. Anthropic warns that models, "including our own," have exhibited self-preserving behaviors, including attempts to resist shutdown, conceal or manipulate information, and behavior resembling blackmail to stay switched on. As systems grow more autonomous, they could take harmful actions "independently and at scale without human intervention." The company also concedes that its own models are now speeding up its research, and that the risk grows if AI accelerates progress beyond its ability to evaluate and safeguard new models. Then the kicker: given the scale of harm from a "catastrophic AI-related incident," the filing says no single insurer, and potentially the insurance industry in the aggregate, may have the capacity to underwrite the exposure, leaving Anthropic facing "potentially significant uninsured losses." Translation: the true tail risk is uninsurable, and public shareholders will own it. And even if Claude behaves perfectly, the S-1 notes that a safety incident at any frontier lab could trigger "sweeping regulatory responses" that hit Anthropic anyway.

Then there's Washington. The filing discloses that on Sept 25 the D.C. Circuit, in a 2-1 decision, upheld the Department of War's Section 4713 designation of Anthropic as a supply-chain risk. Anthropic has petitioned for rehearing en banc. That comes despite an Aug 27 district court ruling in its favor on the related Section 3252 directive, and on top of the June Commerce Department export restrictions that forced it to disable Fable 5 and Mythos 5 for all customers until they were lifted. Government agencies are only about 1% of revenue, but the filing warns the dispute could hit sales to "other customers that sell products and services to the U.S. government," which is to say a large chunk of the Fortune 500.

Strength Or Need? Yes

On Oct 14 we asked whether Anthropic was going public from a position of strength or need, and concluded it was both. The public S-1 sharpens that answer. The strength is real: a 14x revenue ramp, a genuine GAAP operating profit, positive operating cash flow and costs finally growing slower than sales. But so is the need. The company has signed up for roughly $780-810 billion of compute, much of it non-cancelable and payable "regardless of actual usage." It is financed in part by the same vendors who sell it the chips and the cloud, and its supply now includes Elon Musk at $3.1 billion a month. Meanwhile its revenue growth just dropped from 144% q/q to 45% q/q, and the most important number in the prospectus is a blank.

At the $1.5 trillion valuation investors have reportedly settled on, ANT would trade at about 22x annualized Q3 revenue (at $2 trillion it's about 30x). That's a perfectly defensible multiple if the curve re-steepens in Q4. If it doesn't, those obligations will look a lot like what they are: a ten-year, take-or-pay bet sold to public investors who get 49.9% of the vote and none of the say. We know which way we lean. With https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/anthropic-says-q3-revenue-jumped-168-billion-and-turned-adjusted-profitable-run-rate-math and the AI debt window narrowing by the week, the November window will likely be set less by Claude than by the credit market that is supposed to fund the bill.

We'll know more when the price range and the Q3 line get filled in, probably within two weeks.

https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden
Mon, 10/26/2026 - 11:42

https://www.zerohedge.com/ai/anthropics-s-1-out-974-million-operating-profit-800-billion-compute-bill-and-elon-musk-landlord

Oil Spill Off UAE Coast Widens, More Beaches Closed, After Tanker ...

2026-10-26T15:40:00Z

Oil Spill Off UAE Coast Widens, More Beaches Closed, After Tanker Hit

Oil Spill Off UAE Coast Widens, More Beaches Closed, After Tanker Hit

The disastrous oil spill impacting the United Arab Emirate's coast is spreading, which has resulted in government authorities closing more beaches.

"Satellite images show the oil spill approaching the Emirate’s northern Umm Al Quwain shores. Efforts are underway to contain the leakage, the UAE's Environment Ministry said," as quoted in Al Jazeera.

via ReutersAnd Reuters https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/oil-spill-off-uae-widens-satellite-images-show-prompting-more-beach-closures-2026-10-26/ Monday, "Images from the European Union's Copernicus satellite observation network dated October 24 show the oil spill has widened over the last few days and is reaching close to the shores of the northern Umm Al Quwain emirate, with dark layers of oil spreading at sea and along its coastline."

Further, Bloomberg https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-10-25/uae-shuts-more-beaches-as-it-deals-with-oil-spill-in-gulf: "Sharjah said Al Hamriya Beach has been closed as a precautionary measure to prevent pollution from the oil spill. Ras Al Khaimah said that all its beaches are closed until further notice, without specifying the reason for the closure."

International reports have identified that the leak resulted from the Oct.9 incident involving the GEM NO.2 tanker, which had been detailed by the UKMTO. However, Emirati authorities have yet to specifically name the leaking tanker, despite that it has been identified by multiple maritime monitors.

"Gem No. 2, was hit by a projectile Friday off the coast of the UAE resulting in a fire onboard. The ship departed Ras Tanura, Saudi Arabia, in March and has remained in the Persian Gulf since the war began," as https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/dramatic-videos-show-several-tankers-fire-strait-hormuz-weekend by UKTMO earlier this month.

The last week saw increasing complaints by beach area residents of unusual smells - reports that were initially brushed off by local authorities.

Nidal Hilal, Professor of Engineering and Director of New York University Abu Dhabi's Water Research Center, https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/oil-spill-off-uae-widens-satellite-images-show-prompting-more-beach-closures-2026-10-26/: "The reported oil spill off Umm Al Quwain is a serious environmental concern. The temporary closure of beaches and coastal areas is a prudent precaution while the extent of the spill and ⁠the movement of the oil are assessed."

The emerging environmental disaster also impacts the local fishing industry, and boats have been advised to steer clear of the area until a full environmental assessment can be done.

OIL SPILLS spread towards UAE COASTS — Reuters Authorities CLOSING BEACHES across Umm Al Quwain, Sharjah and Ras Al Khaimah, with satellite images showing dark slicks reaching the shore The damaged tanker involved has not been officially identified https://t.co/znaEXxDIqH
— RT Intl (@RT_on_X) https://x.com/RT_on_X/status/2114685955366084938?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
Amid the record pace in Iranian attacks on crude tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, many have been wondering where all of that oil ends up when a tanker sinks or gets severely damaged.

Given that the Iranians have recently stepped up their attacks on shipping in the region, more such major spills could soon unfold. This is also likely to be an environmental and economic disaster that's slow-moving and potentially becomes widespread.

https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden
Mon, 10/26/2026 - 11:40

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/oil-spill-uae-coast-widens-more-beaches-closed-after-tanker-hit

Somaliland Accuses Ilhan Omar Of Leaking Classified Congressional ...

2026-10-26T15:20:00Z

Somaliland Accuses Ilhan Omar Of Leaking Classified Congressional Info To Somalia

Somaliland Accuses Ilhan Omar Of Leaking Classified Congressional Info To Somalia

https://pjmedia.com/catherinesalgado/2026/10/25/somaliland-accuses-ilhan-of-leaking-congressional-info-to-somalia-n4958686,

Another day, another Omar scandal, another piece of evidence indicating foreign loyalties and domestic betrayal.

AP Photo/Jim MoneRep. Ilhan Omar's (D-Minn.) father https://pjmedia.com/catherinesalgado/2026/03/29/ilhan-omars-connection-to-genocide-in-somaliland-n4951203 in genocide in Somaliland, and Omar herself has connections to top Somali thugs, so unsurprisingly there is a natural antipathy between Omar and Somaliland. The latest (resurrected) accusation from the breakaway African republic against Omar is that she leaked classified information to Somali leaders.

Ali Hassan Mohamed, former Somaliland minister of information, originally https://x.com/alihassanmoham/status/1751992557599404489?s=46&t=wDD9h6AWvM1P0tiUGr3o-w his accusation against Omar in 2024, but the @RepOfSomaliland account, which Somaliland's Foreign Ministry has said is not an official government channel, is highlighting the accusation again to emphasize why Omar is a threat to American security.

This is not the first time that Ilhan Omar created animosity between Somalis. She was heavily involved in the conflict that took place in Las-anod. In December 2022, she visited Garowe, where she leaked information to some of the Somali leaders pertaining a meeting between the President of Somaliland and the Foreign Affairs Committee of the US Congress, which she was a member by that time. She was very persistent and urged the Somalian leaders to take proactive actions against Somaliland as soon as possible. A month after this, the Las-anod conflict broke out. She was certainly one of the main characters who created hatred and division among Somalis. So it is time for Ilhan to be held accountable for her wrongdoings.
— Ali Hassan Mohamed (@AliHassanMoham) https://x.com/AliHassanMoham/status/1751992557599404489?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw

On Sunday, the @RepOfSomaliland account (which Somaliland's Foreign Ministry has said is not an official government channel), https://x.com/repofsomaliland/status/2114305116199383406?s=46&t=wDD9h6AWvM1P0tiUGr3o-w of Omar, "She served on that same [House Foreign Affairs] committee and pressed Somalian leaders to act against Somaliland before relations between the Republic of Somaliland and the United States grows stronger. Months later on 6 February 2023, the Las Anod conflict erupted. Hundreds were killed and thousands displaced in a move that sought to destabilize Somaliland - but failed. This is how a foreign agent operates."

Omar, whose real last name is Nur Said Elmi like her murderous father, is in America just to exploit our systems for her own benefit while still helping out the Islamic dictators back home. Somaliland is pro-America, but Somalia definitely isn't.

By the way, the U.S. federal investigation into Omar's immigration fraud includes not only the https://pjmedia.com/catherinesalgado/2026/10/22/in-10-years-omars-incest-defense-went-from-ridiculous-to-not-to-my-knowledge-n4958585 that she married her brother, but also the total lack of record for her father's naturalization as a citizen. Omar https://pjmedia.com/catherinesalgado/2026/10/19/no-record-of-ilhan-omars-fathers-us-naturalization-n4958470 that she had become a United States citizen through her father while she was still a minor, although she likely tampered with her birth year and he apparently lied about his citizenship status. Given all this, it is entirely possible that we have had a noncitizen Somali warlord's daughter sitting in Congress all these years. No wonder she https://theamericantribune.com/watch-ilhan-omar-says-shes-here-to-protect-the-interests-of-somalia/ that she would represent Somalia's interests in Congress.

Omar is not just a liar and a criminal; she is a foreign asset embedded in our government. It's time she is out of Congress and deported back to the country she claims to love so much.

https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden
Mon, 10/26/2026 - 11:20

https://www.zerohedge.com/political/somaliland-accuses-ilhan-omar-leaking-classified-congressional-info-somalia

French Officials Say 1,300 Arrests Made Amid Latest Unrest French ...

2026-10-26T14:50:00Z

French Officials Say 1,300 Arrests Made Amid Latest Unrest

French Officials Say 1,300 Arrests Made Amid Latest Unrest

https://www.theepochtimes.com/world/french-officials-say-1300-arrests-made-amid-latest-unrest-6108595?utm_source=partner&utm_campaign=ZeroHedge,

More than 1,300 people were arrested in another day of protests and riots, after a mass march in Paris a day earlier, according to authorities in France.

The French Interior Ministry said officials responded to 75 fires during Saturday's riots, and added that 24 shops were looted, reported the AFP news agency.

"Several investigations have been opened," the ministry said, adding that clashes had died down later on Saturday, the report said.

Overall, 1,314 arrests were made in the weekend protests, the ministry said, according to AFP.

In a statement on Saturday, Interior Minister Laurent Nuñez said he wanted to "salute the exceptional commitment and professionalism of all the regional prefects, prefects, police officers, gendarmes, and firefighters mobilized across France to ensure the safety of our fellow citizens and allow the processions to proceed smoothly."

"But notably in Paris, Marseille, Lyon, Grenoble, Nantes, Angers, Lille, and many other cities, individuals from the ultra-left and radical far-left have once again sought to sow disorder, particularly during the dispersal of the processions," he continued. "These acts are unacceptable."

The minister added that he backs police officers and other French security officials who were injured Saturday, but didn't provide specifics.

"The violence inflicted on the internal security forces, once again, is intolerable," he said, according to a translation. "They are deliberately targeted because of their uniforms and, above all, because they are the bulwarks of our Republic that these radical militants seek to bring down."

More than a month of unrest that started with protests in high schools for more funding and teachers is testing President Emmanuel Macron's authority in the final months of his presidency before voters choose his successor in May 2027.

The stakes are high: The right-wing National Rally party has accused his government of failing to protect the public and urged people to channel their anger into votes for its candidate, Marine Le Pen. On the left, presidential candidate Jean-Luc Mélenchon has backed demonstrators and criticized policing that has left some protesters with life-changing injuries.

In the United States, President Donald Trump and Vice President JD Vance have https://theepochtimes.com/world/trump-vance-blame-mass-immigration-for-paris-riots-6105965?utm_source=partner&utm_campaign=ZeroHedge that riots, looting, and violence were the result of mass immigration policies and France and across Europe.

Trump has also warned that if Republicans don't win in the U.S. midterm elections on Nov. 3, then similar chaos could emerge in the United States.

Speaking in a Kansas rally to boost GOP candidates last week, the U.S. president warned that France is "being conquered, looted, and burned to the ground" by migrants who "hate, frankly, the Western civilization itself."

The president was referring to protests earlier this week that devolved into mayhem, with people setting fires, storming public buildings, smashing shop windows, looting, and clashing with police. It was noted as France's most violent unrest in years.

https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden
Mon, 10/26/2026 - 10:50

https://www.zerohedge.com/political/french-officials-say-1300-arrests-made-amid-latest-unrest

"You Have This Superpower": Jury Nullification Becomes ...

2026-10-26T14:20:00Z

"You Have This Superpower": Jury Nullification Becomes The Latest Attack On The Court System

"You Have This Superpower": Jury Nullification Becomes The Latest Attack On The Court System

https://jonathanturley.org/2026/10/26/you-have-this-superpower-jury-nullification-becomes-the-latest-attack-on-the-american-court-system/,

"You have this superpower."

That statement from Qiana Johnson is part of https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2026/oct/13/house-probing-dc-groups-training-residents-carry-jury-nullification/ for residents to engage in "jury nullification," whereby jurors ignore the law and incriminating facts in a given case to nullify any prosecution.

Notably, Johnson is the https://www.thebanner.com/politics-power/local-government/prince-georges-clerk-court-election-VODYTHCVR5AP5BUWVNAQL574SI/ of Prince George's County Circuit Court in the Maryland suburbs of Washington. She is part of a growing left-wing movement gaining traction with voters that calls for radical changes to the U.S. legal system.

The effort is to engineer "Twelve Angry Men" scenarios on real juries - but unlike in the movie, the jurors are actually being trained to ignore evidence and deliberations in favor of political outcomes.

In her election campaign for her current job, Johnson had to overcome questions about her own https://wjla.com/features/i-team/candidate-for-prince-georges-county-clerk-confronts-criminal-past. But many voters are willing to give others a second chance when they show evidence of rehabilitation and contrition. The more immediate concern might be embracing a practice that is expressly barred by courts.

Johnson is part of a https://www.washingtonpost.com/dc-md-va/2026/10/13/rep-james-comer-accuses-dc-activist-groups-trying-taint-juries/ by the House Oversight and Government Reform Committee into groups training citizens to engage in jury nullification - including Free DC and Harriet's Wildest Dreams, where Johnson was reportedly a board member.

One such document allegedly declares, "You have this superpower, and that superpower is you are able to nullify that goddamn jury."

Far-left professors have long advocated that juries use jury nullification. Georgetown Law professor and MSNBC legal analyst Paul Butler has long advocated that Black jurors engage in nullification in cases involving Black defendants. Butler https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/in-theory/wp/2016/04/05/jurors-need-to-take-the-law-into-their-own-hands/ in 2016: "Confronting the racial crisis in criminal justice, jury nullification gives jurors a special power to send the message that Black lives matter."

The problem of biased jurors has long plagued the legal system. It can work both ways in ignoring the law to refuse or secure convictions. Past cases involving President Trump and other Republicans have raised bias concerns over the jury pool in cities such as Washington, D.C., and New York City.

But jury nullification is different; it is a direct assault on the very foundation of the American court system. The juror is the thumping heart of that system - a group of empowered citizens who swear to consider cases without prejudice or prejudgment.

It is not a crime to advocate jury nullification. Moreover, there are legitimate concerns raised by investigations into such groups. about chilling the rights of free speech and association. In my view, such advocacy is protected speech under the First Amendment.

But that is not always the case for lawyers, who can face professional consequences. Many courts bar lawyers from arguing for jury nullification. Calling for jury nullification can also present sanctionable conduct for lawyers in a given case.

Even if this is protected speech, voices in both parties need to denounce these efforts. It effectively encourages jurors to lie when they take their oath to follow the law and to shed any outside bias or prejudgment. It is an effort to enlist jurors in using cases to achieve political and social goals at the expense of the rule of law.

The professors and pundits supporting these campaigns are actively seeking a hostile takeover of the courts without explaining to these citizens the implications of such dishonesty. Indeed, Comer has detailed how groups like Freedom Trainers are https://www.washingtonpost.com/dc-md-va/2026/10/13/rep-james-comer-accuses-dc-activist-groups-trying-taint-juries/ seeking to enlist potential jurors while, according to the committee, instructing trainees not to "signal the agenda."

Instead of addressing the impact of politicizing our jurors, these groups are portraying nullification as "a powerful tool for ensuring fairness and justice."

These efforts are coming at a time of full assault on our judicial system from the left. Leading Democrats are calling for the packing of the Supreme Court, to https://jonathanturley.org/2026/06/27/democratic-members-call-for-packing-the-supreme-court-to-reverse-immigration-decisions/ with which they disagree. Every leading Democratic candidate for the 2028 presidential nomination has now thrown the court to the baying mob.

Former Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton is https://www.yahoo.com/news/politics/articles/hillary-clinton-joins-growing-chorus-135820273.html, declaring, "We should seriously look at expanding the court while the Democrats are in power."

From the trial jury to the Supreme Court, many on the left now seek to take control of institutions that have long been the rock of this Republic. If successful, justice will become merely an extension of politics.

What is so disconcerting is that there is no longer any pretense of principle. Law professors are https://jonathanturley.org/2026/08/30/pack-or-sack-penn-professor-demands-litmus-test-for-all-democratic-politicians-to-commit-to-packing-the-supreme-cout/ that pledges to pack the Court be used as litmus tests for politicians, and senators are calling for an instant liberal majority on the Court to https://jonathanturley.org/2021/12/16/destroying-the-court-to-save-it-warren-calls-for-packing-the-supreme-court-with-a-liberal-majority/

Liberal professors have long demanded revolutionary change to "https://jonathanturley.org/2022/08/25/reclaim-america-from-constitutionalism-law-professors-now-call-to-pack-the-states-rather-than-pack-the-court/.";

The attack on the American jury may be the most insidious of these efforts. Our legal system invests average citizens with the power to do justice. Every community plays a role in upholding the principles of blind justice. As with court-packing, jury nullification is a previously odious practice now being portrayed as a noble cause. It is part of the conditioning of voters to accept foundational changes to our constitutional system, to further a radical agenda harmful to the nation.

The juror's role was indeed a "superpower," but not the one these professors and pundits are pushing. It was a power against prejudice and partisanship; it was the power of doing simple justice in a nation committed to the rule of law.

Jonathan Turley is a law professor and the New York Times best-selling author of "https://www.amazon.com/Rage-Republic-Unfinished-American-Revolution/dp/1668205025.";

https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden
Mon, 10/26/2026 - 10:20

https://www.zerohedge.com/political/you-have-superpower-jury-nullification-becomes-latest-attack-court-system

Saudi, Turkey, Pakistan Officials In Tehran For Last-Ditch ...

2026-10-26T14:05:00Z

Saudi, Turkey, Pakistan Officials In Tehran For Last-Ditch Diplomacy, As US Prepares 96-Hour Strike Window

Saudi, Turkey, Pakistan Officials In Tehran For Last-Ditch Diplomacy, As US Prepares 96-Hour Strike Window

There are many indicators that the US and Israel could soon attack Iran again, with media consensus in the US pointing to the likelihood of a renewed bombing campaign after the midterm elections.

In the interim, regional countries are scrambling for a diplomatic breakthrough, seeking to stave off the next escalation round, given also that past Iranian retaliation has imposed a huge cost on America's Gulf allies.

via Associated PressSenior officials from Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Turkey in Tehran for high level talks, the deputy secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, Ali Bagheri, has confirmed Monday.

This includes Saudi Defense Minister Khalid bin Salman, Pakistani Army Commander General Asim Munir, and Turkish Intelligence Chief Ibrahim Kalin - who will engage the Iranian side on "regional security".

Notably, these three countries are signatories to the Mecca Defense Pact and are also allies of the United States, with Turkey being a NATO member.

Iran's Bagheri https://www.middleeasteye.net/live/iran-war-live-tehran-denounces-us-israel-attacks-regional-tensions-rise, "The Islamic Republic of Iran's model of defense based on internal and domestic capabilities has become a successful model for building national security."

"On the other hand, Iran's strategic policy is to ensure regional security through regional countries and confront any foreign interference and influence, led by the American and Zionist regimes," he added.

Bagheri praised the "fruit of the heroic efforts and struggles of the armed forces and the Iranian nation" and expressed hope that Iranian resistance to US-Israeli aims would result in a "region with stability and peace and on the path of progress."

Reuters has cited a senior Iranian official who says the meeting was initiated by Pakistan.

Jason Brodsky, a hawkish think tank pundit, has reacted to the diplomatic scramble in https://x.com/JasonMBrodsky/status/2114660410515206357:

The stories write themselves at this point. I would not be surprised to see a last minute call from regional countries to President Trump pleading for a delay in any military operation against Iran, citing that progress is just around the corner on negotiations or deal that will later fall apart.

Over the weekend, just prior to the Mecca Pact countries' delegations going to Tehran, Qatari mediators were also once again in the Iranian capital to "de-escalate regional tensions."

Senior officials from Iran, Pakistan, Türkiye and Saudi Arabia have begun a four-way meeting in Tehran, hosted by Iran’s Supreme National Security Council Secretary Mohsen Rezaei. Participants include Pakistan’s Army Chief Asim Munir, Saudi Defense Minister Khalid bin Salman and Turkish Intelligence Chief Ibrahim Kalin.
— Clash Report (@clashreport) https://x.com/clashreport/status/2114708652644819407?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
Meanwhile, CNN is reporting that the White House has plans to relaunch major attacks on Iran, and that more American forces are being deployed to the Middle East, so that strikes against Iran could be carried out "within 96 hours of receiving" an order from the president.

According to that https://us.cnn.com/2026/10/26/politics/us-iran-strike-plans-trump:

Sufficient forces are now deployed in the region to carry out the potential attacks, the sources said. The scope of new US military operations would likely go beyond efforts to simply “mow the lawn” or maintain the status quo by striking radars, launchers and other Iranian assets that can be quickly reconstituted — as has been the case since Trump halted full combat operations earlier this year, the sources added.

“It will be a big effort,” one of the officials told CNN. That view has been echoed by other current and former US officials familiar with internal military planning discussions — some of whom say it is a question of when, not if, Trump will issue a go-order. They believe it could come any time before the end of the year, though most likely after the https://www.cnn.com/2026/10/22/politics/iowa-republicans-trump-iran-war

But it remains the that US administration has yet to define the end goal or 'mission accomplished' moment, now in month eight of what was supposed to be a "two to four-week" conflict. So far, escalation has tended to simply beget more escalation, and not an offramp.

It seem they all went to Iran to deliver the final threat. https://t.co/1Akhe5rHHT
— Ali (@MerruX) https://x.com/MerruX/status/2114713439600058834?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
A major new bombing campaign would put immensely more pressure on Iran, but would do the same for America's Gulf allies, given they would probably face a huge wave of retaliation from the IRGC in the form of ballistic missiles and drones.

https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden
Mon, 10/26/2026 - 10:05

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/mecca-pact-officials-tehran-last-ditch-diplomacy-us-prepares-96-hour-strike-window

Lula Runoff Shock Sparks Brazilian Market Carnage: Stocks ...

2026-10-26T13:56:00Z

Lula Runoff Shock Sparks Brazilian Market Carnage: Stocks Collapse, Real Plunges As 'Bolsonaro Trade' Implodes

Lula Runoff Shock Sparks Brazilian Market Carnage: Stocks Collapse, Real Plunges As 'Bolsonaro Trade' Implodes

Summary:

- Ibovespa Stock Index Plunges 20%, Triggers Circuit Breaker

- Real Crashes 11% To 5.58/USD

- Brazil Markets Crater After Socialist Lula's Shock Victory; Bolsonaro Seeks To Annul Runoff
Market Shock

Brazilian assets crashed after President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva's surprise runoff victory over Flávio Bolsonaro unraveled bullish bets across local stocks and the real. A controversial last-minute, two-hour voting extension has prompted Bolsonaro to call for the runoff to be annulled.

"Needless to say, the outcome caught most of the market by surprise, with President Lula completing a major turnaround and winning the runoff," UBS analyst Daniel Pompiani told clients earlier this morning.

The real plunged as much as 11% this morning, while longer-dated interest-rate swap contracts surged almost 300 basis points after hitting trading limits.

Exchange operator B3 widened trading limits for currency, interest-rate, and stock futures for Monday's regular session to accommodate the volatility. Brazilian stocks last triggered a circuit breaker during the COVID crash in early 2020.

Ibovespa stock-index futures plunged 20%, prompting warnings from trading desks and triggering a circuit-breaker halt.

Traders had positioned for a Bolsonaro victory after his first-round lead sparked a rally and attracted billions in foreign inflows. After Lula's victory, JPMorgan analysts downgraded their outlook on Brazil's currency and rates from overweight to market-weight.

"The post-election message of the market is clear: There is no vacation time for the next four years, and the country will need to address the fiscal issue," said Peter Varga, a senior portfolio manager at Erste Asset Management.

UBS' Pompiani asked:

Will the BCB intervene? It is very likely, but probably not right at the open. The BCB usually monitors flows and overall market conditions before stepping in, as its focus tends to be on market dysfunction rather than defending a specific level. The first move should be violent, but price discovery will be difficult. With liquidity thin and positioning caught offside, headline levels may matter less than where the market can actually clear risk.

Société Générale analyst Brendan McKenna told clients, "Don't call it a comeback, Lula's been here for years."

McKenna provided clients with five key points:

1. Lula's victory in the runoff of Brazil's presidential election marks an abrupt end to Latin America's conservative wave and a shift away from the right side of the political spectrum. What began as anti-incumbent sentiment driven by rising crime, corruption, and inflation ultimately culminated in strong support for Lula and his policy platform. While most Latin American countries will continue to be governed by conservative administrations, the region's two largest economies, Brazil and Mexico, will be led by left-leaning governments. The Latin America election calendar is lighter in 2027 highlighted by general elections in Argentina toward the end of next year. We cannot help but wonder if Brazil pushing back on the right is an indication for a return to Peronism in Argentina or the start of the broader Latam pendulum swinging back left

2. Regardless of whether Brazil's election marks an inflection point in regional politics, financial market contagion from Lula's re-election across Latin America should be limited. Brazil's financial markets are likely to come under significant pressure at the open; however, with most Latin American elections already behind us and many countries having secured more market-friendly policy platforms, we believe any Lula-induced selloff is likely to remain largely idiosyncratic to Brazil rather than trigger region-wide contagion. Argentina may be more vulnerable to spillover effects as regional markets have already demonstrated unease regarding President Milei potentially not being re-elected in 2027. Brazil rejecting a platform similar in style to President Milei could prompt more concern across Argentine local markets, but the extent of any spillover from Brazil's election should be contained to Buenos Aires.

3. Fiscal discipline is likely to prove more elusive under another Lula administration, and we see little reason to expect a meaningful fiscal adjustment during a fourth Lula term. That said, Lula will face a right-leaning Congress that could constrain his ability to further loosen fiscal policy. A bond market and currency that remain under pressure could also force the government to adopt a more pragmatic fiscal stance to reassure investors, similar to Lula's efforts to pursue spending restraint after market pressures intensified in late 2024. Should Vice President Alckmin assume a more prominent role in Economy Ministry, and if Finance Minister Durigan continues to emphasize fiscal responsibility, financial markets may stabilize relatively quickly. However, achieving a peak in government debt ratios is likely to remain challenging.

4. Brazil's Local market selling is likely to be severe, but we will primarily be looking for opportunities to buy BRL. A Lula victory is likely to embed a political risk premium in the currency; however, BRL's underlying fundamentals remain strong. The real continues to benefit from elevated real interest rate differentials, a manageable current account position, and a central bank with adequate foreign exchange reserves and a demonstrated willingness to deploy them to support financial market and FX stability. In addition, BRL may benefit from the presence of a conservative-leaning Congress that could constrain any efforts by President Lula to further loosen fiscal policy. Should Vice President Alckmin be appointed economy minister and Finance Minister Durigan remain in his role, markets may also take comfort in the continuity and elevated prominence of a technocratic economic team. Our range to watch is BRL5.70-BRL5.75. We would view USDBRL in that range as more interesting to engage in tactical trades to express potentially oversold conditions.

5. Rates may be a little trickier, as the upcoming BRL selloff is likely to push near-term inflation expectations higher, on top of an IPCA trajectory that was already expected to firm through the end of this year and into early 2027. SG Economics now forecasts a slower and shallower Brazilian Central Bank (BCB) easing cycle, which could keep the Selic rate above current market expectations through the end of 2028. As a result, the popular pre-runoff receiver trade may face headwinds for a more extended period, particularly relative to FX markets. Rates pressure should be felt across the curve, but the longer end of the curve should feel pressured most acutely given renewed fiscal concerns associated with the Lula administration. For now, our focus remains on identifying attractive BRL entry points rather than expressing bullish views through rates markets.

Brazil Markets Crater After Socialist Lula's Shock Victory; Bolsonaro Seeks To Annul Runoff

Brazilian Senator Flávio Bolsonaro said overnight that he would seek to annul the presidential runoff, challenging a last-minute, two-hour voting extension granted at the request of socialist President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva's campaign. The order came from Supreme Court Justice Cristiano Zanin, Lula's former personal attorney, whom the president appointed to the high court. Lula later won the runoff after Bolsonaro finished first in the first round earlier this month, setting the stage for a legal challenge to the court's questionable intervention.

BREAKING: Flávio Bolsonaro: It is impossible to recognize the election results in the context of how these things happened. We are going to use our legal team, we are going to request the annulment of these elections. https://t.co/PVtKvb9b3M
— Clash Report (@clashreport) https://x.com/clashreport/status/2114534175361597872?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
According to the electoral court, Lula was re-elected for a record fourth term on Sunday, taking 51.76% of the vote to Bolsonaro's 48.24% in a surprise outcome.

Via Bloomberg:

Bolsonaro said, "It is impossible to recognize the election outcome given the circumstances in which all of this took place," adding, "We will pursue legal action and seek to have the election annulled."

@zerohedge @jeffreytucker Pretty weird …
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) https://x.com/elonmusk/status/2114556215560740959?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
Trump:

JUST IN: Trump threatens to tariff Brazil unless they redo their election
— Spencer Hakimian (@SpencerHakimian) https://x.com/SpencerHakimian/status/2114603881736860119?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
Greta received her talking points:

🇸🇪🇧🇷 Greta has a take on the Brazilian election: Lula = good for the planet Anyone else = literal apocalypse LMAO 🤣🤣🤣 Writer: Samuel https://t.co/5jNhSlYxSM
— Mario Nawfal (@MarioNawfal) https://x.com/MarioNawfal/status/2114394053991153935?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
The questionable voting-extension ruling came minutes after polling stations nationwide were scheduled to close at 5 p.m. local time. Zanin later clarified that it applied only to polling stations that remained open.

Soros Jr happy https://t.co/RGCWgVyZ5s
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) https://x.com/zerohedge/status/2114544012807827801?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
UBS analyst Justin Wensek told clients, "Flavio's annulment request is unlikely to hold water given his campaign also asked for additional time in specific states that were impacted by adverse weather."

The focus now shifts to Brazilian markets, where the "Bolsonaro trade" has reversed and shares of companies across the banking, steel and metals, and oil and gas sectors have plunged:

BANKS, FINANCIAL FIRMS

US-listed shares in lenders fall: Banco Bradesco -27%, Itau Unibanco Holding -28%, NU Holdings -22%, Inter & Co. -32%, Banco Santander (Brasil) -11%

Among other financial firms: PagSeguro Digital -28%, StoneCo -31%, PicS -27%

STEEL, METAL & MINING

Among movers: Companhia Siderurgica Nacional -13%, Vale -7.7%, Gerdau S.A. -14% AERO,

OIL & GAS AND OTHER SECTORS

Among other movers: XP Inc. -39%, Ambev -19%, Embraer -2.6%, MercadoLibre -2.6%, Telefonica Brasil -16%, Companhia Energetica de Minas Gerais -15%, Companhia Paranaense de Energia -17%, Petroleo Brasileiro -19%, Ultrapar Participacoes -18%, Cia de Saneamento Basico do Estado de Sao Paulo (SABESP) -22%, TIM S.A. -17%

iShares MSCI Brazil ETF (EWZ) cratered 27% in premarket trading on the surprise Lula win.

UBS analyst Wensek added more color on the significant repricing of Brazilian assets as the market readjusts to four more years of socialist Lula:

Brazil's fiscal outlook again takes center stage, as debt/GDP trajectory resumes its ominous path. The desk expects a significant re-pricing of Brazilian assets on Monday, as the market adjusts to another four years of Lula, with USDBRL potentially at 5.3 Monday.

Note that FX didn't react that much in the first round; it was more about rates and equities. EM strategist Roque Montero thinks USDBRL could drift to 5.5-5.6 by end-2026 given December negative seasonality.

In rates, Roque expects a 100-150bp move higher. Equities could correct by 10-15% based on latest EWZ reaction. Among stocks, watch for selling pressure/rotation out of SOEs, high beta and rate sensitive names, into defensive, USD leveraged, cash flow generative names. If there is a silver lining, Lula will have to build a coalition to pass key policy initiatives through a more right-leaning Senate and Lower House.

Beyond Bolsonaro's possible court battle to challenge the results, Brazil now faces a financial reckoning as public debt has climbed to 83% of GDP from 71.7% when Lula and the socialists took office in January 2023, leaving traders to digest the continued fiscal deterioration.

ING analysts see a 5%-7% slide in real terms and double-digit stock losses today. The repricing is already underway offshore: Brazil's dollar bonds were among the worst performers in emerging markets, with yields on notes due in 2037 jumping 19 basis points to 6.44%.

What Goldman analysts expect from here:

Rates and equities will see the most damage. In rates, where we settle will depend on damage control on fiscal. There are people close to the president advocating for fiscal consolidation given its impact on financing cost. Market will closely monitor Finance Minister announcement, and the details of fiscal consolidation. Adjustments involving Constitutional spending cap/ fiscal target would be well received, and trim on specific social programs without longer term commitment likely won't calm market. If we see credible fiscal reform, BCB can continue its easing path given the still-very-high real rate, so front-end-to-belly receiver could be attractive again after the correction. Equity market will likely price out optimism around structural reforms to improve SOE/ business environment.

USDBRL – expect to settle in new range of 5.4-5.8. This will limit BCB's ability to accelerate its pace of easing.

Brown Brothers Harriman's Elias Haddad sees a buying opportunity emerging from the selloff.

https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden
Mon, 10/26/2026 - 09:56

https://www.zerohedge.com/political/brazil-stocks-crater-bolsonaro-seeks-annul-runoff-after-socialist-lulas-shock-victory

Appeals Court Raises Doubt Over Trump Admin's Ballot Lawsuit ...

2026-10-26T13:50:00Z

Appeals Court Raises Doubt Over Trump Admin's Ballot Lawsuit Against California

Appeals Court Raises Doubt Over Trump Admin's Ballot Lawsuit Against California

https://www.theepochtimes.com/us/appeals-court-raises-doubt-over-trump-admins-ballot-lawsuit-against-california-6107923?utm_source=partner&utm_campaign=ZeroHedge,

A federal appeals court on Sunday expressed skepticism over the Trump administration's bid to require California to set aside mail-in ballots from voters whom the government suspected of being noncitizens.

The Ninth Circuit of Appeals held an emergency teleconference hearing after the Department of Justice (DOJ) filed a notice of appeal seeking the court's intervention.

During the hearing, Circuit Judge Mark Bennett said California has the authority under the elections clause to determine how it conducts elections, including how it sorts out votes from noncitizens.

"Congress has not directly changed what the legislature has adopted, which they had the right to do. And it seems to me you want us to issue an injunction that is entirely inconsistent with the law the California legislature has adopted pursuant to the Elections Clause," the circuit judge said.

Bennett also questioned the appeals court's jurisdiction to rule on the case, noting that the lower court had already scheduled a hearing for Tuesday.

DOJ lawyer Matthew Donnelly said the department sought an emergency court order after California said in its filing that it had processed more than 330,000 mail-in ballots.

The DOJ https://www.theepochtimes.com/us/doj-sues-california-after-flagging-20000-likely-noncitizens-registered-to-vote-6104448?utm_source=partner&utm_campaign=ZeroHedge California on Oct. 15 to prevent the counting of mail-in ballots from more than 20,000 people identified by the federal government as likely noncitizens. The federal government has asked the state to set aside ballots received until it can confirm citizenship.

The department filed an appeal on Oct. 22 after U.S. District Judge David Carter failed to rule on its emergency request for injunctive relief by the requested deadline.

During the hearing, Donnelly was questioned about the source of the department's claim that 20,000 voters were likely noncitizens. Donnelly said the information came from "a list that was purchased originally from California" and supplied to the government, which then underwent a rigorous review.

California attorney Samuel Siegel argued that the federal government has no authority to dictate how the state processes its ballots.

"If the executive branch wants that authority in the first instance, they need to go ask Congress for it. They haven't done that. They ask this court to short- circuit the democratic process and issue an order, not just on the eve of an election, but as an election is underway," Siegel said.

At the end of the two-hour oral argument, Bennett said the three-judge panel would try to rule as quickly as possible.

In its Oct. 21 emergency filing for a temporary restraining order, the DOJ https://www.theepochtimes.com/us/doj-seeks-appeals-court-intervention-in-california-ballot-lawsuit-6107851?utm_source=partner&utm_campaign=ZeroHedge state and county officials contended they lacked the mechanisms and authority to prevent noncitizens from voting in the midterm elections. The department said that this showed an immediate threat to the integrity of lawful votes.

"As defendants continue processing ballots that cannot later be segregated or verified for eligibility, the dilution of lawful votes accelerates in real time," the DOJ said in its filing.

"This is an emergency. Every minute of processing that occurs without segregating the ballots of suspected non-eligible voters causes untraceable disenfranchisement and dilution of the votes of United States citizens."

Los Angeles County filed a https://storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.uscourts.cacd.1043513/gov.uscourts.cacd.1043513.68.0.pdf on Oct. 21 asking the judge to dismiss the DOJ's lawsuit, arguing the department lacked legal standing to bring the case.

/users/tyler-durden
Mon, 10/26/2026 - 09:50

https://www.zerohedge.com/political/appeals-court-raises-doubt-over-trump-admins-ballot-lawsuit-against-california

Iranian Army Says It Shot Down US LUCAS Drone That Was Flying ...

2026-10-26T13:40:00Z

Iranian Army Says It Shot Down US LUCAS Drone That Was Flying Over Southern Iran

Iranian Army Says It Shot Down US LUCAS Drone That Was Flying Over Southern Iran

https://news.antiwar.com/2026/10/25/iranian-army-says-it-shot-down-us-lucas-drone-that-was-flying-over-southern-iran/,

The Iranian Army said on Sunday that its https://www.presstv.co.uk/Detail/2026/10/25/779149/Iran-Army-shoot-down-LUCAS-drone-southern-Iran over the southern Iranian port city of Bandar Abbas, an incident that comes as the US and Israel appear poised to launch another round of major strikes against Iran.

So far, the US hasn't confirmed losing a LUCAS and hasn't responded to the Iranian claim. The LUCAS, or Low-cost Unmanned Combat Attack Systems, is the US version of the Iranian Shahed-136 drone and was first https://news.antiwar.com/2026/02/26/us-militarys-first-kamikaze-drone-unit-is-ready-for-potential-attacks-on-iran/.

Iran's PressTV published a photo that it said showed the wreckage of a US LUCAS drone in Bandar Abbas and said that Iranian forces previously shot one down in July.

Photo published by PressTV that’s said to show the LUCAS wreckage

US Central Command https://news.antiwar.com/2025/12/03/us-war-department-launches-first-kamikaze-drone-squadron-in-the-middle-east/ that it had deployed a fleet of LUCAS drones in the Middle East, calling it the "first one-way-attack drone squadron based in the Middle East." On February 26, 2026, two days before the US and Israel began bombing Iran, https://news.antiwar.com/2026/02/26/us-militarys-first-kamikaze-drone-unit-is-ready-for-potential-attacks-on-iran/ that the LUCAS drones were ready to strike the Islamic Republic.

LUCAS drones are said to cost about $35,000 for the US to produce. Iranian air defenses have also shot down https://news.antiwar.com/2026/10/07/report-details-81-us-aircraft-lost-or-damaged-in-iran-war/ since the war began, a much more expensive unmanned aerial vehicle, costing somewhere between $30 million and $50 million to manufacture.

/users/tyler-durden
Mon, 10/26/2026 - 09:40

https://www.zerohedge.com/military/iranian-army-says-it-shot-down-us-lucas-drone-was-flying-over-southern-iran

Anthropic's S-1 Is Out: A $974 Million Operating Profit, An ...

2026-10-26T13:24:07Z

Anthropic's S-1 Is Out: A $974 Million Operating Profit, An $800 Billion Compute Bill, And Elon Musk As Landlord

Anthropic's S-1 Is Out: A $974 Million Operating Profit, An $800 Billion Compute Bill, And Elon Musk As Landlord

Afterhttps://www.zerohedge.com/ai/807-billion-red-ink-and-600-billion-tab-inside-anthropics-updated-ipo-prospectusand one closed-door investor day, the real thing is finally here.

At precisely 9:00:11am ET, Anthropic PBC https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2130357/000162828026067168/anthropicpbc-sx1.htm with the SEC, applying to list its Class A shares on the Nasdaq Global Select Market under the ticker "ANT", with Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley leading a syndicate of no fewer than 22 banks. The price range and share count are, of course, still blank. So is something else, which we'll get to in a moment.

Regular readers know we have been all over this one: from the https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/leaked-anthropic-ipo-prospectus-shows-42bn-net-loss-518bn-unfunded-spending-commitments-and in late September (a $42 billion 2025 net loss and $518 billion in compute commitments), to the https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/anthropic-says-q3-revenue-jumped-168-billion-and-turned-adjusted-profitable-run-rate-math on Oct 14, to https://www.zerohedge.com/ai/807-billion-red-ink-and-600-billion-tab-inside-anthropics-updated-ipo-prospectus with its $80.7 billion half-year loss. On Oct 14 we said the public S-1 "will tell us what 'adjusted' means." It does, and it tells us a lot more besides: the first quarterly GAAP operating profit in the filing, a fully itemized compute bill that now runs to roughly $780-810 billion, and a governance structure in which public shareholders will never hold more than 49.9% of the vote.

In other words, the business got better, the bill got bigger, and the buyers get a minority voice by design. Let's take it piece by piece.

Finally, The Quarterlies

The leaks gave us half-year totals. The S-1 gives us the quarters, and they are spectacular. Revenue went from $376 million in Q1 2025 to $11.6 billion in Q2 2026, and the full-year line reads $41 million (2023), $386 million (2024) and $4.6 billion (2025). First-half 2026 revenue was $16.3 billion versus $1.16 billion a year earlier, or 14x.

Then there's the blank. The prospectus summary boasts that revenue grew from $0 at launch in Q1 2023 "to $ for the three months ended September 30, 2026." Yes, the Q3 number is literally a blank space in the prospectus summary. We already know what goes there: management told its investor day it was $16.8 billion, up about 45% from Q2. That is a great quarter by any normal standard, but as https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/anthropic-says-q3-revenue-jumped-168-billion-and-turned-adjusted-profitable-run-rate-math, it implied monthly growth collapsing from roughly a third to mid-single digits in August and September, which is why IPO investors promptly https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/aftershock-anthropic-ipo-investors-mark-valuation-down-15-trillion-growth-slowdown-sinks from $2 trillion.

*ANTHROPIC HAD $16.3B IN REVENUE IN FIRST HALF OF 2026: WSJ

that's it?
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/2112627795184501068
Two more disclosures about the shape of that revenue are worth flagging. First, "model versions released in the six months ended September 30, 2026 accounted for over 80% of our revenue" in Q3. Put differently, this is a treadmill: four-fifths of the money comes from products that didn't exist two quarters ago, so the company has to keep shipping frontier models just to stand still. Second, the business is seasonal in a way that will matter once growth normalizes: total customer spend fell about 20% in the two weeks to Jan 2, 2026 versus the prior two weeks, because nobody ships code over Christmas.

What "Adjusted" Means (And A Real Operating Profit)

Credit where it's due: Q2 2026 was the first quarter of GAAP operating profit in the filing, at $974 million, or an 8% margin, after an operating loss of $1.7 billion in Q1. For the full first half, the operating loss narrowed to just $693 million (a -4% margin) from $2.1 billion a year earlier.

The driver is plain operating leverage: compute and infrastructure fell from 251% of revenue in Q1 2025 to 48% in Q2 2026, and total operating expenses dropped below revenue (92%) for the first time. Anthropic's own framing is that revenue grew 1,368% y/y in Q2 while compute costs grew "only" 300%. (The Q3 2025 spike in the chart below is the $1.5 billion Bartz copyright settlement, which by itself was 109% of that quarter's revenue.)

https://assets.zerohedge.com/s3fs-public/inline-images/4PnVDlbkhpK7oAAAAASUVORK5CYII.jpgAs for "adjusted": the H1 Adjusted Operating Income of $1.6 billion (a 10% margin) is simply GAAP operating loss plus $2.2 billion of stock-based comp and $126 million of non-cash charitable contributions from the employee donation-matching program. That's it. The more interesting asterisk is elsewhere. Anthropic books revenue gross when it sells through AWS, Google Cloud and Azure marketplaces (it's the "principal"), and the fees it pays those channel partners go into "sales, marketing, and partnerships." That line went from $120 million in H1 2025 to $3.2 billion in H1 2026, nearly 20% of revenue. Book the marketplace sales net, the way OpenAI does, and both the top line and the growth rate shrink.

Also note what's coming: as of June 30 there was $26.6 billion of unrecognized stock-based compensation tied to RSUs, whose performance condition is satisfied when the S-1 goes effective. The filing warns that SBC will jump, "in particular the quarter in which this offering is completed." So enjoy the 8% GAAP operating margin while it lasts, probably just one more quarter.

The $72 Billion Paper Loss, Explained

Which brings us to the headline loss. Of the $80.7 billion H1 net loss, $72.4 billion came from marking up convertible notes, derivative liabilities and SAFEs, and $59.6 billion of that hit in Q2 alone. The S-1 says why: the charge was "largest in the three months ended June 30, 2026, reflecting the increase in our enterprise valuation in connection with our Series H financing."

The numbers behind that are remarkable. Anthropic sold Series G-1 preferred in January-February at $259.14 a share (raising $23.5 billion), then Series H-1 in May-June at $589.01 (raising $45.7 billion). That's a 2.3x markup in roughly four months, and every dollar of it flowed straight through the P&L as a loss on the instruments held by earlier backers (chiefly the Amazon notes, $6.2 billion of principal outstanding). Q2 also carried another $8.4 billion of "other expense," mostly tied to fair-value accounting on the new note purchase agreements. Put simply, the more the company is worth, the more money it "loses."

https://assets.zerohedge.com/s3fs-public/inline-images/ADf31PCnxHNMAAAAAElFTkSuQmCC.jpgThe balance sheet tells the same story: an accumulated deficit of $132.9 billion and a total stockholders' deficit of $127.6 billion as of June 30, propped up by $157.5 billion of redeemable convertible preferred. Meanwhile H1 operating cash flow was a positive $3.9 billion, against $110.8 billion of financing inflows. Anthropic has raised $141.1 billion to date and was sitting on $131.7 billion of cash and short-term investments at the end of June. It will need every penny.

The Bill: Now Itemized, And Now Bigger

Here's the part that matters. The leaked drafts spoke of "more than $600 billion" contracted and up to $750 billion including negotiations. The public S-1 names the counterparties and the amounts, and they add up to more:

- Broadcom: five-year master equipment leases for Google TPU hardware, with rent of about $161.2 billion excluding interest, accounted for as finance leases.

- Google Cloud: at least $114.5 billion from April 2026 to July 2033, "regardless of actual usage," with a true-up if Anthropic underspends. On top of that, Anthropic has committed to additional TPU compute from Google and other providers for 2028-2031, which it estimates at another $125-150 billion (excluded from the contractual table).

- SpaceXAI (formerly X.AI, now a SpaceX subsidiary): up to $120.5 billion for NVIDIA GPU compute into 2029.

- Amazon: at least $110 billion from May 2026 to April 2036, also with a true-up.

- Microsoft: at least $44.9 billion from November 2026 to May 2033, up from the $31 billion reported from the WSJ-reviewed draft (the deal was amended again in October).

- Nscale: up to $44.6 billion into 2033, and Lambda: about $41.3 billion into 2034, both NVIDIA GPUs.

- AMD: Helios rack-scale systems from 2027, with expected spend of "more than $20 billion" (also excluded from the table).
Add it up and the named deals come to roughly $637 billion of fixed or capped commitments, and roughly $780-810 billion once you include the company's own estimates for the TPU and AMD tranches. That's about 12x the ~$67 billion annualized Q3 revenue run rate, and about 6x the cash pile. (The S-1's own aggregate total, and the "due in the next 12 months" figure, are, naturally, left blank for now.)

*NSCALE, ANTHROPIC IN TALKS FOR $45 BILLION CLOUD COMPUTING DEAL

Is this for compute in 2040 when the UK finally has the electricity to power up the data center
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/2112263668616352183
(For the record, the Nscale deal that was "in talks" a week ago is in the S-1 at $44.6 billion, with a clause requiring Nscale to use "best efforts" to obtain financing for the GPUs and the data center. That's the AI buildout in one sentence: the tenant's lease depends on the landlord finding someone to lend it the money to build the building.)

Three details jump out.

1) Elon is the landlord. The single most surprising line in the filing is the SpaceXAI arrangement. Anthropic has agreed to pay a subsidiary of SpaceX, which owns its direct frontier-model rival, about $3.1 billion a month once all capacity is delivered, which it expects in December 2026. That's roughly $37 billion a year to one supplier, or about 80% of Q2's average monthly revenue of $3.85 billion. The only consolation: after initial non-cancelable periods ending in January and March 2027, either side can walk on 90 days' notice, which makes it the most flexible contract on the list (and also the one most likely to be repriced by the other side).

2) The vendors are the bank. Anthropic has an aggregate $77 billion of undrawn convertible note capacity: $20 billion from Google, $15 billion from Amazon and $42 billion from Broadcom. The Broadcom facility exists specifically to finance rent payments under the Broadcom lease. So Broadcom leases Anthropic $161 billion of chips, then stands ready (directly or through a "designated financial partner") to lend Anthropic up to $42 billion, convertible into stock, so Anthropic can pay Broadcom the rent. The lease obligations sit in two special-purpose subsidiaries, are guaranteed by the parent, secured by the equipment, and carry "customary events of default, including cross-defaults." Broadcom has already assigned part of one lease to "another third party." The company is candid about it: "a portion of our compute and infrastructure build-out has been funded or supported by capital or credit support provided or facilitated by certain of our CSPs and chip partners." Regular readers will recognize this from https://www.zerohedge.com/ai/forget-cdos-meet-ccos-isnt-tech-cycle-its-2008-silicon; it's the circular-financing structure we have been warning about since we went https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/inside-bottomless-pit-definitive-look-trillions-debt-funding-ai-supercycle of AI supercycle debt.

3) The landlords are also the cashier. Sales through the hyperscaler marketplaces were 48% of H1 2026 revenue, up from 11% in 2023, and those same platforms accounted for 58% of net receivables. So Amazon, Google and Microsoft are simultaneously Anthropic's biggest suppliers, its biggest distribution channel, its billing agent, its lenders, its shareholders (via non-voting Class N stock), and, as the filing concedes, its competitors.

https://assets.zerohedge.com/s3fs-public/inline-images/UCgUCoVCoVAoFAqFQqFQKBQKhUJ556AJ.jpgConcentration: Reframed, Not Gone

The WSJ draft's scariest line, that two customers made up about 20% of revenue, has been reworded in the public filing: no single customer exceeded 10% of revenue in the first nine months of 2026, and the top five made up about 25%. Anthropic also notes that 79% of Q3 revenue came from outside the top five, up from 64% in Q1. That's progress, but a quarter of revenue from five customers, "many" of whom are "not subject to long-term contracts," is still a thin layer of equity under three-quarters of a trillion in decade-long obligations.

The bull case is in there too: Net Revenue Retention of about 900%, more than 11,900 customers paying $100,000+ a year (from about 20 at end-2023), about 250 paying $10 million+, and revenue per employee of $6.6 million with a headcount of about 5,300 (from 940 at end-2024). Those are numbers no software company has ever printed. Then again, Ken Griffin https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/ken-griffin-says-ai-almost-certainly-bubble-corporate-america-opens-its-anthropic-and that corporate America is looking at its Anthropic and OpenAI bills and asking what it's getting for them, which is precisely the question a 900% NRR eventually has to answer.

One Share To Rule Them All

Then there's the governance, which makes Meta's dual-class look like a town hall. Immediately before the IPO, Anthropic will issue a single share of Class F common stock to an LLC owned by its seven co-founders. That one share carries 50.1% of the total vote on all matters, including the election of every director not picked by the Long-Term Benefit Trust. The LTBT, through its own single share of Class T stock, elects a majority of the board. So Class A holders are capped at 49.9% of the vote, and with the founders' single share controlling the vote on the non-Trust seats, they have no practical say over any board seat; Anthropic will be a Nasdaq "controlled company."

Add the public benefit plumbing: Anthropic has already contributed 846.8 million Class N shares, 5% of fully diluted stock, to its own Anthropic Public Benefit Fund (managed initially by Dario Amodei, Daniela Amodei, Jack Clark and Buddy Shah), and the board may issue up to another 2% every time the stock rises 50% above the prior milestone, starting from the IPO price. That's a dilution ratchet that kicks in precisely when shareholders are winning. The co-founders have each pledged 80% of their personal equity to charity, and five of them are listed among the selling stockholders in the deal.

*ANTHROPIC TO SHIFT SOME SHARES INTO NEW ‘PUBLIC GOOD’ FUND

so... $5,000/person?
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/2111882721203220754
And the risk factors run to nearly 100 pages (pages 26-119). Beyond the self-preservation and "catastrophic incident" language we covered last week, the filing discloses that on Sept 25 the D.C. Circuit, in a 2-1 decision, upheld the Department of War's Section 4713 designation of Anthropic as a supply-chain risk. Anthropic has petitioned for rehearing en banc. That comes despite an Aug 27 district court ruling in its favor on the related Section 3252 directive, and on top of the June Commerce Department export restrictions that forced it to disable Fable 5 and Mythos 5 for all customers until they were lifted. Government agencies are only about 1% of revenue, but the filing warns the dispute could hit sales to "other customers that sell products and services to the U.S. government," which is to say a large chunk of the Fortune 500.

Strength Or Need? Yes

On Oct 14 we asked whether Anthropic was going public from a position of strength or need, and concluded it was both. The public S-1 sharpens that answer. The strength is real: a 14x revenue ramp, a genuine GAAP operating profit, positive operating cash flow and costs finally growing slower than sales. But so is the need. The company has signed up for roughly $780-810 billion of compute, much of it non-cancelable and payable "regardless of actual usage." It is financed in part by the same vendors who sell it the chips and the cloud, and its supply now includes Elon Musk at $3.1 billion a month. Meanwhile its revenue growth just dropped from 144% q/q to 45% q/q, and the most important number in the prospectus is a blank.

At the $1.5 trillion valuation investors have reportedly settled on, ANT would trade at about 22x annualized Q3 revenue (at $2 trillion it's about 30x). That's a perfectly defensible multiple if the curve re-steepens in Q4. If it doesn't, those obligations will look a lot like what they are: a ten-year, take-or-pay bet sold to public investors who get 49.9% of the vote and none of the say. We know which way we lean. With https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/anthropic-says-q3-revenue-jumped-168-billion-and-turned-adjusted-profitable-run-rate-math and the AI debt window narrowing by the week, the November window will likely be set less by Claude than by the credit market that is supposed to fund the bill.

We'll know more when the price range and the Q3 line get filled in, probably within two weeks.

As we concluded previously, for retail and institutional buyers alike, the proposition could hardly be clearer. Public shareholders are being invited to absorb 5 percent upfront share dilution for a public benefit fund, assume uninsurable liability for self-preserving AI models, rely on two uncontracted customers for a fifth of top-line revenue, and backstop up to $750 billion in non-cancelable, ten-year compute leases – all so venture insiders and hyperscaler landlords can convert off-balance-sheet IOUs into public-market liquidity before the growth curve flattens out.

https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden
Mon, 10/26/2026 - 09:24

https://www.zerohedge.com/ai/anthropics-s-1-out-974-million-operating-profit-800-billion-compute-bill-and-elon-musk-landlord

Debt Window Slams Shut: Meta Taps Shareholders For Up To $95 ...

2026-10-26T13:12:31Z

Debt Window Slams Shut: Meta Taps Shareholders For Up To $95 Billion, With Its Own Chip Suppliers Buying In

Debt Window Slams Shut: Meta Taps Shareholders For Up To $95 Billion, With Its Own Chip Suppliers Buying In

We warned that Zuck would have to come to shareholders with his hand out. This morning, he did.

Meta announced a gargantuan financing plan of up to $95 billion in new equity on Monday, topping even Alphabet's upsized $84.75 billion equity raise from June. Our reaction, roughly 60 seconds after the headline hit:

There it is META TO OFFER $22.5B OF CLASS A COMMON STOCK
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) https://x.com/zerohedge/status/2114676322161074330?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
"There it is" because we had flagged it a week ago: regular readers will recall that ahead of Meta's earnings (which the company moved up a full week for no obvious reason), we highlighted a question UBS asked out loud while everyone else was asking it quietly:

"Meta reports a week earlier than normal – trying to get ahead of the (cap raise) crowd?" - UBS
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) https://x.com/zerohedge/status/2111934927218647511?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
Well, the answer was yes. And just as important as the raise itself is what Meta is not doing: selling a jumbo bond. Coming the morning after Elon Musk said that debt markets have "almost entirely shut off access to money" for anyone without substantial non-AI revenue, Meta's decision to fund itself with stock confirms what we have been saying for weeks: the AI debt pipeline has seized up, and even the strongest borrowers in the space would rather dilute shareholders than test it.

$22.5 Billion Now, $12.5 Billion In Converts, $60 Billion Later

Here is what Meta is selling, per its https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1326801/000119312526431036/d116268dfwp.htm and the https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1326801/000119312526431040/d94886d424b5.htm filed this morning:

- $22.5 billion of Class A common stock, sold through forward sale agreements with Morgan Stanley and Goldman (plus a $3.375 billion greenshoe). Meta gets no cash up front, and can settle any time on or before November 19, 2027, in Class A or the new non-voting Class C shares.

- $12.5 billion of mandatory convertible preferred: 250 million depositary shares, each a 1/20th interest in a $1,000 preferred share, converting into common around August 15, 2029 and listing under "METAM" (with another 37.5 million depositary shares in the greenshoe).

- A $60 billion "at-the-market" program of non-voting Class C shares, to start in Q1 2027 once the Class C stock begins trading (the new share class becomes effective January 19).
Goldman's offering snapshot shows the common deal pricing after the close today (October 26), with MS and GS as active bookrunners:

https://assets.zerohedge.com/s3fs-public/inline-images/GS%20Meta%20follow-on%20indicative%20terms%20-%202026-10-26.pngThen there is the cherry on top: Nvidia, AMD and Broadcom, three of Meta's biggest chip suppliers, "indicated an interest" in buying up to $5 billion of the common stock at the offering price. That indication is non-binding, as the prospectus is careful to note: any of them "may determine to purchase more, fewer, or no shares." More on that below.

We ran the numbers. At Friday's $642.62 close, the $22.5 billion forward alone is about 35 million new shares (the prospectus has Class A outstanding rising from 2.214 billion to 2.249 billion). Do the whole $95 billion at that price and it comes to nearly 150 million shares, or roughly 6.7% of the Class A count (approximate, before greenshoes, and the converts' share count depends on the price in 2029). And for the company that spent well over $100 billion buying back its own stock between 2021 and 2024, the converts come with a twist: per the prospectus, unless the preferred dividends are paid in full, "no dividends may be declared or paid on our Class A Common Stock... and we may not repurchase our Class A Common Stock." Buybacks, meet dilution.

Here is how the ask stacks up against Meta's $82 billion of cash and securities, and the $140 billion midpoint of its 2026 capex guide:

https://assets.zerohedge.com/s3fs-public/inline-images/ZH%20-%20META%2095bn%20equity%20plan%20vs%20cash%20and%20capex%20-%202026-10-26.pngMeta's pitch for the deal reads like a product launch. "AI is creating significant opportunities for Meta across its core business," the company said, and its "AI investments are already generating tangible returns through increased engagement, improved advertising performance and increased monetization." It also says it will fund itself through "a balanced mix of operating cash flow, investment-grade debt, strategic partnerships, and equity capital," adding that its "Aa3/AA- credit ratings allow it to raise long-term debt efficiently."

Which is a curious thing to say, maybe, a week after Meta's own https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1326801/000162828026066710/meta-20261021.htm admitted the exact opposite: the special committee "recognized that debt financing alternatives of the magnitude that Company management was considering could have an adverse effect on the Company's credit ratings." Translation: the bond market can't absorb what Meta needs without the ratings taking a hit, so shareholders get the bill.

The math behind it hasn't changed since last week. As Bloomberg showed this morning, Meta's capex is set to exceed its operating cash flow this year (for the first time in at least eight years), and hit roughly 120% of it in 2027:

https://assets.zerohedge.com/s3fs-public/inline-images/BBG%20Oct26%20-%20Meta%20capex%20as%20pct%20of%20operating%20cash%20flow.jpgShares, incidentally, pared initial losses to trade up 1.6% at $654 in the premarket, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-10-26/meta-seeks-up-to-95-billion-in-equity-to-fund-ai-spending, after tumbling last Thursday. Nothing says "relief" like 150 million new shares.

"Massive Capital Raises Incoming"

None of this should surprise anyone who read us last week. In "https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/please-dont-stop-museic-everything-you-need-know-ahead-metas-earnings"; (Oct 21) we quoted JPMorgan's TMT desk, which had found that most of the buyside was already braced for a raise:

JPM on META equity offering: "a majority of investors still believe that an Equity Raise is likely post-Q3... We all know that META is going to burn FCF next year; the only question is whether the cost of debt or the cost of equity will be lower when they need to raise capital."
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) https://x.com/zerohedge/status/2112985168822833466?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
Then came the print. Meta tightened its 2026 capex guide to $135-145 billion, joined Amazon in the negative free cash flow club, and filed a 14C showing management had told the board it needed to raise "hundreds of billions of dollars over a period of several years beginning as early as fall 2026." Meta's CDS blew out to a record, as we detailed in "https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/meta-plunges-cds-hits-record-barclays-spots-massive-spending-warning-fine-print."; And when the market spent the day fixating on the capex number, we pointed at the bigger one:

Also, market is forgetting that while Meta will spend $250BN in 2027 capex, it also has to spend $210-225BN in 2027 opex to fund off balance sheet liabilities. -> Massive capital raises incoming https://t.co/SlwL4VOvfd
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) https://x.com/zerohedge/status/2113279592257732859?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
Four days later, here they are.

What the sellside got wrong was the timing. The consensus last week was that nothing would happen until the Class C shares started trading: JPMorgan's TMT trader Mark Schilsky titled his first take "C You in January," arguing "we won't get one until early 2027. The overhang lives on!" Barclays' Andrew Keches, meanwhile, figured equity was "unlikely before then" and expected a bond deal before year-end, maybe the "standard" $25 billion, maybe "a $50bn-plus trade." Instead, Meta structured around the January date with a forward sale it can settle in either share class, and skipped the jumbo bond altogether (for now).

Recall the 14C's other key line: "timing is important to secure capital before competitors saturate various funding options." Meta just went first.

Musk: Debt Markets Have "Almost Entirely Shut"

Why stock instead of bonds? Elon Musk, whose SpaceX just closed $40 billion of GPU debt, explained it on Sunday afternoon, replying to Chamath Palihapitiya's thread on neoclouds and data center land:

Pretty much. As of the past few weeks, debt markets have almost entirely shut off access to money for any company that doesn’t have substantial revenue independent of AI data centers. SpaceX closed $40B of debt for GPUs, but we’re investment grade and have Starlink & launch revenue. That means the 200+ neoclouds are going to see guppy-level death and consolidation. Some will make it through, but not many.
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) https://x.com/elonmusk/status/2114434646914068862?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
"Guppy-level death" is a new one, though the message will be familiar. Goldman's TMT desk led its Monday note (https://www.zerohedge.com/signup/professional-membership-year) with exactly this: "focus continues to be on AI Capital raising (which has become a bigger and bigger talking point in recent weeks, given the well-documented capital needs of the industry + stress in bond/convert market)." CoreWeave was down 5% in the premarket on Musk's comments.

The stress is visible across the AI credit stack. In his weekend wrap, "https://marketdesk.ai/standalone/9sfSThvVnKR"; (https://www.zerohedge.com/signup/professional-membership-year), Goldman IG trader Brad Shelofsky writes that last week was shaped by "a significant re-rating of AI risk as markets reassessed the feasibility of funding the buildout." While the prior week's pain was in the neoclouds, "this week the Hyperscalers shouldered a greater share of the blame": Goldman's IG hyperscaler basket closed 17bps wider, "its worst week on record outside of the similar moves in July," and its 30-year hyperscaler basket hit new wides, now 85bps cheap to the IG100 ex-hyperscalers, and 90bps cheaper than when it launched in February:

https://assets.zerohedge.com/s3fs-public/inline-images/GS%20Shelofsky%20Oct25%20-%20IG%2030Y%20hyperscalers%20vs%20IG100.pngThe HY data center basket fell another 0.95 points on the week (chart source GS FICC), its seventh down week in the past eight:

https://assets.zerohedge.com/s3fs-public/inline-images/GS%20Shelofsky%20Oct25%20-%20HY%20data%20center%20basket%20weekly%20change.pngShelofsky also quotes Jensen Huang, who said there's "a scarcity of capital. The demand of the capital is much greater than the availability of the capital. That's going to get solved." (We have a guess how.) And he admits something few traders put in writing:

"I'll start by saying that conviction is rather low here and I don't feel as if that is unique. I fell into the mean reversion trap too early, believing a META deal would create a runway for a Q4 bounce in a beaten-up and optically cheap space but the concerns around funding pressures only grew this week. I still believe you will see a squeeze at some point in Q4 like the move we witnessed in July, however, that can't happen until the Meta and SpaceX Chip deals are cleared... The key headwinds remain weak sentiment and a lack of willingness from Real Money investors to take risk higher until there is greater clarity on when the rate of supply growth stops being exponential."

In other words, the IG desk was waiting for a Meta bond deal to clear the air. It got a stock deal, which leaves the bond question open. Meanwhile, the cost of insuring AI giants' debt has gone vertical ahead of this week's prints (chart via Bloomberg):

https://assets.zerohedge.com/s3fs-public/inline-images/Debt%20Jitters%20Before%20the%20Big%20Prints%20-%202026-10-26_0.jpg"Without Debt, There Is No EPS Growth"

We have been tracking the drought for weeks. On October 13, in "https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/until-ai-capex-debt-creation-machine-turns-back-goldman-says-credit-calm-about-two-more,"; we explained why credit had stayed calm (the one borrower big enough to break it had stopped borrowing), and why that wouldn't last:

Just how full is the hyperscaler/AI IG debt pipeline: there have been zero deals since the start of September. And SPVs not doing better. As a reminder, debt becomes capex, becomes revenue, becomes EPS. Without debt, there is no EPS growth.
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) https://x.com/zerohedge/status/2110136872034807884?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
On Friday, Morgan Stanley's credit strategists called it "https://marketdesk.ai/standalone/sjazN9tck46"; (https://www.zerohedge.com/signup/professional-membership-year), tallying just ~$23 billion of AI-related supply globally in September and zero in US IG. As we wrote in "https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/pause-or-wall-behind-morgan-stanleys-ai-debt-lull-lurk-delays-blackouts-and-buildout-only"; on Saturday, we had a different word for it: a wall. Two days later, the biggest spender of them all routed around it with stock.

That matters because the entire AI capex forecast rests on a debt pipeline that has to get much bigger. Goldman's chief credit strategist Amanda Lynam expects $420 billion of IG issuance from the hyperscalers alone in 2027 (https://marketdesk.ai/standalone/463mkdEBUUF), versus about $230 billion in the record year to mid-September:

https://assets.zerohedge.com/s3fs-public/inline-images/420%20hyper%20debt%20.jpgLynam's latest comments, relayed by Goldman's TMT specialists this morning, explain why the plumbing is creaking. In the AI buildout, "the key focus is no longer just the cost of capital, but its availability and strategic value." Off-balance sheet leases and purchase commitments across five leading hyperscalers now total $2.8 trillion, an eightfold increase since 2023 (our own count, including Nvidia, Broadcom and SpaceX, https://x.com/zerohedge/status/2113120227055841617), and the rating agencies can't agree on how to treat them: S&P adjusts leverage for off-balance sheet leases, Moody's and Fitch don't, so "potential methodology changes are therefore worth watching." Most telling, she flags that "some companies are explicitly acknowledging the need to secure capital before markets become saturated - a new development that highlights the distinctive nature of the AI financing cycle." That would be Meta's 14C, word for word.

Put differently, when an Aa3/AA- issuer with $97 billion in operating cash flow through nine months decides equity is the better deal, the debt market has a pricing problem, a capacity problem, or both.

Vendor Financing, Now In Equity Form

Which brings us back to the cornerstone investors. Nvidia, AMD and Broadcom will (maybe) buy up to $5 billion of Meta's stock, so that Meta can keep buying Nvidia, AMD and Broadcom chips. We have written plenty about AI circularity over the past year, from GPU-backed SPVs to chipmakers financing their own customers, but seeing three suppliers anchor a customer's equity offering is a new rung on the ladder. And the relationships run deeper than a one-off ticket. In February, Meta signed a multiyear deal for "millions" of Nvidia Blackwell and Rubin GPUs plus Grace and Vera CPUs, and a separate pact for up to 6GW of custom AMD Instinct GPUs, under which AMD handed Meta a warrant for up to 160 million AMD shares, vesting as the chips ship. In April, Broadcom extended its custom MTIA accelerator partnership with Meta through 2029, while its CEO Hock Tan left Meta's board to become an adviser on, naturally, its custom silicon. So AMD gives Meta equity to buy its chips, Meta (maybe) sells equity to AMD to help pay for them, and everyone books revenue. Here is who pays whom:

And it presumably helps fill a book that, at $35 billion underwritten, is no small ask on a Monday morning before Microsoft, Alphabet and Amazon report.

For balance, not everyone sees a crisis. https://marketdesk.ai/standalone/sjsQ7MQ8Uuj, relaying a FICC financing call in this morning's briefing (https://www.zerohedge.com/signup/professional-membership-year), says "Credit markets are becoming more discriminating on AI Infra, but there's nothing to suggest a broader funding crisis." AI infrastructure has absorbed more than $500 billion of debt this year (over $350 billion in IG, over $60 billion in leveraged finance, plus structured and private credit, the latter $100 billion-plus by JPM's "best guess"), and while "all-in funding costs for hyperscalers maybe have increased ~120bps," the bank says the ecosystem "remains functional." Fair enough. But the same note concedes that "Equity % will also need to move up as volumes get up to 20GW+," and that banks have "become more selective about underwriting terms." Today, Meta showed what that looks like in practice.

First Meta, Then Who?

If Meta, with an AA- rating and one of the world's two biggest ad businesses, prefers stock to bonds, the question for everyone else is obvious. Oracle hosts its investor day on Wednesday. SpaceX still has to price its $40 billion chip deal. Microsoft and Alphabet report Wednesday, Amazon on Thursday, and Goldman's TMT desk warns that "any signs of further equity issuance or balance-sheet pressure are unlikely to be well received." As for the neoclouds, which have neither Starlink nor Instagram to fall back on, Musk has already written the obituary.

Good for META. Now let's see everyone else's equity offering https://t.co/l0ve6NNBVl
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) https://x.com/zerohedge/status/2114693427568746912?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
The bulls will say the debt drought is temporary, that the "machine" turns back on once earnings clear, and that Meta just pre-funded itself cheaply at a share price 17% below its September high. Maybe. We think the more likely read is the simpler one: the cheapest money in the AI trade has already been borrowed, the next $420 billion of bonds will cost a lot more than the last batch, and the companies that can still sell stock will sell it while they can. The 14C told us as much: Meta wanted to raise capital "before competitors saturate various funding options." When the strongest balance sheet in the group is racing for the exit door of the capital markets, it's worth asking what it knows that the price targets don't.

For shareholders, the trade-off is now explicit: years of buybacks just went into reverse, and the dilution has only started. The ATM alone is $60 billion, and as the 14C made clear, that's still nowhere near "hundreds of billions."

Much more in the full Goldman "https://marketdesk.ai/standalone/9sfSThvVnKR,"; the Morgan Stanley "https://marketdesk.ai/standalone/sjazN9tck46";, the JPM "https://marketdesk.ai/standalone/sjsQ7MQ8Uuj"; notes, all available to https://www.zerohedge.com/signup/professional-membership-year.

https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden
Mon, 10/26/2026 - 09:12

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/debt-window-slams-shut-meta-taps-shareholders-95-billion-its-own-chip-suppliers-buying

Futures Rise As Meta Jumps On $95BN Equity Raise, Oil Slides; ...

2026-10-26T12:29:35Z

Futures Rise As Meta Jumps On $95BN Equity Raise, Oil Slides; Brazil Crashes After Lula Shock

Futures Rise As Meta Jumps On $95BN Equity Raise, Oil Slides; Brazil Crashes After Lula Shock

US futures are higher as oil slides on hopes that a regional delegation in Tehran can breathe some life into US-Iran peace talks, and as Meta jumps after finally unveiling how it plans to pay for its AI capex binge, offsetting a stunning comeback win by Lula in Brazil's runoff which has sent Brazilian ADRs crashing as much as 30-50% premarket, while traders brace for a week packed with megacap earnings and central bank decisions; as a result 10Y yields are flat at 4.99% and the dollar is barely changed. As of 8:15am ET, S&P futures are 0.4% higher at 7,665.75 while Nasdaq futures are up 0.7% and Dow futures rise 0.4% (+186 points) to 52,580. On Friday the S&P slipped 0.5% to cap a second weekly drop and close below its 50DMA, as the AI funding angst which has hammered tech names spread to credit. Premarket, Mag 7 names are mostly higher led by Meta (+2.4%), which is seeking up to $95 billion in equity: a $35 billion offering ($22.5 billion of Class A common stock plus $12.5 billion of mandatory convertible preferred) launched this morning, followed by an at-the-market program to sell up to $60 billion of new non-voting Class C shares starting in 2027, with Nvidia, AMD and Broadcom indicating interest in buying up to $5 billion of the offering (some circular AI financing never hurts). That the stock is rising on a potential $95 billion equity raise tells you how much the market feared the alternative was even more debt. The day's driver is Brazil: Lula's 51.8%-48.2% victory over market favorite Flávio Bolsonaro, who is now calling for the vote to be annulled, has sent the Brazil ETF (EWZ) down 27% premarket, with names like XP (-48%), StoneCo (-35%), PicPay (-34%) and Nubank (-23%) all crashing. In rates, Treasuries are narrowly mixed with the long end outperforming and the curve flattening by about 2bp, while French bonds rally after Moody's unexpectedly kept France at Aa3, narrowing the OAT-bund spread to around 158bps. The Bloomberg dollar index is up 0.1% with the yen the weakest G-10 currency, while the Brazilian real is expected to gap 5-7% lower at the open. In commodities, WTI is down about 2.1% near $101 and Brent drops toward $114 as Saudi, Turkish and Pakistani officials travel to Iran; European natgas is up 3% near a post-2022 high, while gold rises 0.5% back above $4,000 and Bitcoin hovers around $80,400. US economic data slate includes September Chicago Fed national activity index (8:30am) and October Dallas Fed manufacturing activity (10:30am); the Fed is in its blackout period ahead of Wednesday's FOMC, and the Treasury sells $69 billion in 2-year notes at 1pm.

In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks are mostly higher: Meta Platforms (META) up +2.4% after announcing sale of up to $95 billion in common and preferred stock; Tesla (TSLA) gains 1.8% as Barclays upgrades to overweight from equal-weight, citing M&A opportunity with SpaceX; Alphabet (GOOGL) +0.5%, Amazon (AMZN) +0.2%, Microsoft (MSFT) +0.4%, Nvidia (NVDA) +0.4%, Apple (AAPL) -1.7%. Here are some of the other notable premarket movers:

- US-listed shares of Brazilian companies, and those exposed to the country, slump after President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva surprised the markets to come from behind to win a runoff election. Among movers: PagSeguro (PAGS) -32%, NU Holdings (NU) -25%, MercadoLibre (MELI) -14%

- Borr Drilling (BORR) falls 10%. The company said search-and-rescue operations are ongoing for five individuals who remain unaccounted for after its Prospector 5 drilling rig sank during jacking operations offshore Gabon on Oct. 24.

- Range Resources (RRC) rises 14% after EQT agreed to buy the energy firm in an all-stock transaction to create a combined natural gas company with a pro forma enterprise value over $50 billion. EQT (EQT) falls 4.2%.

- Surgery Partners (SGRY) soars 24% after the Financial Times reported that Bon Secours Mercy Health is in late-stage talks to buy a majority stake in the Bain Capital-backed surgical care provider.
In other corporate news, Meta, whose 5-year CDS has roughly doubled since August to about 120bps as its capex is now seen exceeding operating cash flow, decided that if the bond market is getting nervous, shareholders can foot the bill: the company launched a roughly $35 billion offering of $22.5 billion in Class A common stock (sold via forward sale agreements) and $12.5 billion in three-year mandatory convertible preferred stock, and plans an at-the-market program of up to $60 billion of new non-voting Class C shares once they start trading, expected in Q1 2027, for a total of up to $95 billion; Nvidia, AMD and Broadcom indicated nonbinding interest in buying up to $5 billion of the shares, which are being sold to fund AI infrastructure and compute capacity. EQT agreed to buy Range Resources in an all-stock transaction, with each Range share exchanged for 0.987 EQT shares, creating a gas giant with a combined enterprise value of more than $50 billion; RRC is up 14% premarket while EQT drops 4.2%. Verizon raised its full-year adjusted EPS forecast to $5.04 to $5.06 from $4.99 to $5.04 after posting its biggest third-quarter wireless-customer additions in five years. Instacart is in talks to sell itself, the Information reported. Amex plans to cut 5% of its headcount as transaction volumes fall short. Ovintiv agreed to buy Canada's Logan Energy in a Montney expansion. Elon Musk said SpaceX closed a $40 billion debt deal to fund chips for its AI ambitions, although people familiar said pricing talks were still underway. Challenger's board rejected a $4.4 billion offer from Daiichi Life.

Global markets are trying to start the week on a positive note as crude retreats from a six-month high, but it's a deceptively calm surface: a shock win for Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in Brazil's election will dominate today's narrative, while the AI trade will be tested this week when tech firms worth more than $10 trillion combined, including Microsoft, Amazon and Alphabet, report earnings. As Bloomberg's Before the Bell notes, the Nasdaq is at a key technical level after a second week in the red, hovering around 29,000 after a failed breakout sent it back toward the lower end of its six-month range; a loss of recent lows would expose the 200-DMA near 27,800, about 3.5% below current levels.

The bigger issue is how all this AI capex gets paid for. Meta's raised capex guidance alarmed some, as consensus is now modeling about $140 billion in spending, pushing that metric above operating cash flow, and the concerns are spilling into credit, with Meta's five-year CDS spread roughly doubling since August to around 120 basis points, confirming what we warned last week when https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/melting-down-goldman-admits-its-credit-bear-case-isnt-bearish-enough-ai-stress-hits-bonds. Today we got the answer to the funding question: Meta is seeking up to $95 billion in equity to fund its AI spending, after last week's results showed it raised the low end of its 2026 capex guidance, turned free-cash-flow negative and flagged multi-year equity funding needs through new Class C shares (per Goldman's TMT desk). The stock fell 7% on Thursday when the issuance plans overshadowed a revenue beat, but is up 2.4% premarket now that the size of the overhang is known and the chipmakers it pays for GPUs have offered to buy some of the paper back. Meanwhile, the stress at the bottom of the credit stack is getting worse: average yields on triple-C rated junk bonds topped 16% for the first time since 2020 on Friday, and last week's 1.6% loss was the biggest in 18 months.

Elon Musk's weekend comments didn't help: he said debt markets have "almost entirely shut off access to money" for companies without substantial revenue outside AI data centers, adding that "200+ neoclouds are going to see guppy-level death and consolidation," which is why CoreWeave (-5.5%) and Nebius (-4%) are sliding premarket even as the broader market rises. Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson, meanwhile, sees AI-related concerns as one of three clearing events that could help end the market correction over the next few weeks, and reckons quality can hold up even if the S&P trades toward his tactical downside zone of 7,100-7,200.

On Brazil, the street was caught leaning the wrong way.

“For today, however, expect Brazilian markets to be hit hard. USD/BRL gapping 5-7% higher at the open to the 5.20/25 area should be no surprise, while the local Bovespa equity index looks set for double-digit losses,” said Chris Turner, ING's head of FX strategy. “Important for local financial markets will be how quickly Bolsonaro accepts the result – or at least allows the constitution to run its course.”

“As such, BRL is poised to unwind its rally following Bolsonaro’s strong first-round showing earlier this month,” said Elias Haddad, global head for markets strategy at Brown Brothers Harriman. “Lula’s greater tolerance for rising debt adds to BRL headwinds.”

Elsewhere, HSBC's long-standing equity bull Max Kettner is dialing back risk, moving to neutral on equities from maximum overweight and to overweight developed-market government bonds from maximum underweight, saying bond underperformance "has become stretched" and that "constant narrative bingo" means the team no longer has the same level of conviction; HSBC also cut its gold overweight and raised oil to outright overweight.

JPMorgan's Market Intel desk (Andrew Tyler) remains "Tactically Bullish", noting the SPX has lost 2.4% over the last two weeks with a shift toward defensives, and that "we have yet to have a complete positioning washout despite sentiment being firmly in the Fear region." On Iran, "If Trump moves back to negotiations rather than kinetics, then we expect a broad-based rally led by Tech / Cyclicals ex-Energy." As for Brazil, JPM's prior Monetization Menu noted that "internationally, we continue to favor Brazil and Japan" (it was a good run while it lasted). JPM's Mike Feroli expects a hold on Wednesday with two hawkish dissents (Hammack and Logan), and says Chair Warsh will have to explain why the committee hiked after a two-tenths core PCE print in September but is now holding after an expected three-tenths outturn.

Over at Goldman, Rich Privorotsky summed up the mood: "Positioning, sentiment and performance all severely constrained…. shorts squeezing, nothing working. Usually darkest before the dawn." According to the bank's Giulio Esposito, Global Tech is "registering its largest 2-week net selling on record", fundamental L/S net leverage has dropped to a one-year low of 47%, while Mag 7 net exposure is at a record high, which echoes what we noted over the weekend in https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/ai-hangover-goldman-says-buy-dip-hedge-fund-stop-outs-push-nets-one-year-low. Goldman's Brian Garrett frames the dilemma: "we're either in the 2nd inning of a repricing of the entire AI ecosystem … or we're in the 8th inning of a significant de-gross episode (leaning in this camp right now)". Also of note, GS calculates that CTAs are long $38.5 billion of S&P futures (91st percentile) and could sell $11.6 billion over the next week even in a flat tape. Goldman economists expect the FOMC to skip on Wednesday but deliver a second and final hike in December.

Positioning may yet provide a cushion: Deutsche Bank strategists note tech exposure has slid to the lowest level in six months and is now close to Iran war lows, even as investors poured about $30 billion into tech funds over the past two weeks, including $12 billion into leveraged ETFs; that dip-buying showed signs of cracking last Thursday, when the selloff triggered about $1.5 billion of outflows.

In geopolitics, Trump said it's "getting to be decision time" on whether he will make a deal with Tehran or resume attacks, as Iranian and Houthi threats against Americans in the Middle East continue to grow; meanwhile, Kevin Hassett said US-Canada trade negotiations are "gathering steam." In France, the government avoided a repeat of the looting of the prior weekend, and Moody's surprise decision to hold France's rating has given OATs a stay of execution (S&P is up next on Nov. 27); for more on where French and European spreads go from here, see https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/vote-now-pay-later-goldman-hikes-frances-2027-deficit-54-warns-europes-election-cycle-will.

In Europe, the Stoxx 600 rises 0.4% to 638.10 with 442 members up and 141 down, as cyclicals lead and defensives lag, a reversal of recent performance, ahead of a busy earnings week. France's CAC 40 outperforms with a 0.9% gain after Moody's held the nation's rating, and the DAX rises 0.9% after the Ifo business climate index unexpectedly improved for a sixth month to 90.2, while Spain's IBEX is the laggard as Telefonica slumps 7% on a JPMorgan downgrade and Santander falls 4% on its Brazil exposure. Travel & leisure and autos lead, while energy trails as crude retreats. JPM's desk notes the top baskets are Freight Sensitives, MidEast Escalation Shorts and Power, while Diesel plays, Oil sensitives and MidEast Escalation Longs are lower, and Growth/Momentum lead. Here are the biggest European movers:

- Genmab shares surge as much as 13%, the most since March 2020, after the drugmaker said a late-stage trial of its experimental treatment for ovarian cancer, Rina-S, met its primary and key secondary endpoints. The company separately gave a positive update for petosemtamab, a drug being developed to treat colorectal as well as head and neck cancer.

- Roche shares gain as much as 1.9%, to the highest since April 2022, after the pharma producer’s experimental lung cancer drug, divarasib, fared better than rivals in a late-stage study.

- PostNL shares gain as much as 5.4%, the most since Aug. 3. The Dutch courier service upgraded its free cash flow outlook to the upper end of the range and reiterated its full-year Ebit guidance, which analysts received positively in spite of weaker-than-expected volume growth in the third quarter.

- Plus500 shares rise as much as 4.6%, the most since Sept. 30, after the trading platform said it expects its financial performance to be ahead of current market expectations for FY26.

- Man Group shares gain as much as 4.9%, the most since Sept. 17, after Meiji Yasuda Life Insurance says it plans to acquire a 5% stake in the UK asset manager.

- European stocks with exposure to Brazil fall after President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva came from behind to win the country’s runoff election, putting fiscal policy in focus and raising concerns that Brazilian interest rates could remain higher for longer. Among decliners are telecom operator Telefonica, lender Santander, online casino supplier Evolution

- GTT shares drop as much as 15%, the biggest decline since 2020, after the engineering firm reported a decline in revenue over the first nine months of the year.

- BASF shares fall as much as 1.8% after a downgrade to hold from buy at Deutsche Bank. Uncertainty over the potential acquisition of Evonik is likely to create a “material overhang” over the stock, according to the bank’s analysts.
Asian stocks were mixed with a mostly negative bias, as weakness in technology shares in Korea and Japan persisted ahead of a slew of tech earnings. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index slipped as much as 0.2%, with Samsung Electronics among the heaviest drags. Korea's Kospi fell 1.3% (foreigners were the only net sellers), while SK Hynix bucked the broad AI selloff on the prospect of a hefty special dividend tied to its Kioxia stake. Japan's Nikkei 225 dropped 0.8%, with Advantest's 3.9% slide accounting for about 55% of the decline according to Goldman, while miners and oil names rallied. Hong Kong's Hang Seng bucked the trend, rising 0.5% led by energy names such as PetroChina (+5.8%), even as mainland investors sold for a ninth straight session via Stock Connect. China's CSI 300 was flat (-0.04%) as China's fifth plenum got underway, Australia's ASX 200 edged up 0.2%, Indonesia's JCI fell 1.5%, and Taiwan was closed for a holiday.

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index is up 0.1% and the yen is the weakest G-10 currency, with USD/JPY up 0.3% near 157.30 ahead of Friday's BOJ decision. The euro holds just above 1.12 after France avoided a Moody's downgrade, while the pound lags ahead of Wednesday's UK budget. The Brazilian real is expected to gap sharply lower at the open, with ING seeing USD/BRL up 5-7% to the 5.20/25 area and Goldman's desk flagging a 10% move. Elsewhere, asset managers' short positions on the Aussie dollar surged to a record high in the week ended Oct. 20.

In rates, Treasuries are narrowly mixed with the long end outperforming, flattening the yield curve as investors set up for front-loaded auctions on Monday and Tuesday ahead of Wednesday's FOMC decision. Front-end yields are slightly cheaper on the day, with the 2-year up 1bp at 4.69%, while the 30-year is lower by around 1bp, flattening 2s10s and 5s30s by about 2bp; the 10-year is little changed near 4.98%. This week's auctions begin with $69 billion 2-year notes at 1pm ET, followed by $70 billion 5-year notes Tuesday and $44 billion 7-year notes Thursday; the WI 2-year yield near 4.69% is about 10bp richer than last month's auction, which tailed by 0.2bp. Traders are pricing just a 13% chance of a hike on Wednesday while largely pricing in a 25bp hike in December (so much for a dovish Fed under Warsh). In Europe, French bonds outperform after Moody's maintained France at Aa3 with a negative outlook, defying expectations of a downgrade, taking the OAT-bund spread to around 158bps from Friday's 176bps peak, while bunds slip as gas prices jump and the unwind of haven flows sends money back into French debt. IG dealers expect around $30 billion of issuance this week as companies emerge from earnings blackouts.

“Risks to Treasury yields skew modestly higher over the near term, especially given that 10-year yields are once again flagging 15bp too low in our fair-value framework,” said JPMorgan's Jay Barry.

In commodities, oil is lower with WTI down about 2.1% around $101 and Brent trading near $114, as senior officials from Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan meet Iranian counterparts in Tehran and Iran's foreign minister proposed a 7-day plan to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, subject to conditions. Supply risks haven't gone anywhere: UKMTO reported a tanker transiting Hormuz was struck by a projectile on Oct. 23, the Houthis claim to have targeted Saudi Arabia's East-West crude pumping stations, crude in floating storage rose 8% in the past week according to Vortexa, and IEA chief Birol says he sees no credible pathway for energy markets to return to pre-Iran war levels in 2027. Dutch TTF gas bucks the trend, up about 3% toward €97/MWh and near the €100 mark on colder weather forecasts. Spot gold is back above $4,000/oz, up 0.5% around $4,016, silver trades around $54, and LME copper is little changed.

US economic data slate includes September Chicago Fed national activity index (8:30am) and October Dallas Fed manufacturing activity (10:30am). The Fed is in its external communications blackout ahead of Wednesday's decision. Earnings before the open include Verizon; after the close, Cadence Design, Amkor, Rambus, Welltower, Whirlpool, Brown & Brown and Alexandria Real Estate report.

Market Snapshot

Top Overnight News

- Lula da Silva won a record fourth term as Brazil’s president in a surprise runoff defeat for Flávio Bolsonaro, who said he’ll challenge the result. Local markets are bracing for a rout, with a New York ETF tracking Brazilian equities sinking 27% premarket. BBG

- ING says the Brazilian real can slide 5-7% at the open on Lula's victory, with the Bovespa set for double-digit losses; Brazil's B3 changed trading range limits for rates, FX and the Bovespa. BBG

- Meta is seeking up to $95 billion in equity to fund AI spending: a $35 billion offering of $22.5 billion in Class A common stock and $12.5 billion in mandatory convertible preferred, plus an at-the-market program for up to $60 billion of non-voting Class C stock expected to start in Q1 2027; Nvidia, AMD and Broadcom are interested in buying up to $5 billion of Meta stock. Shares rise 2.4% premarket. BBG

- Saudi, Pakistani, and Turkish defense officials will travel to Tehran on Monday to discuss the region’s security challenges. Al Jazeera

- US forces in the Middle East are prepared to launch new, potentially major, military operations against Iran “within 96 hours of receiving” an order from President Donald Trump, according to two US officials. CNN

- UKMTO received a time-late report that a tanker transiting the Strait of Hormuz was struck by an unknown projectile on Oct. 23, disabling the vessel. BBG

- No end is in sight to a $3.5 trillion selloff in Chinese stocks as investors see little urgency from leaders to jump-start the economy. BBG

- The EU plans safeguards to cut imports from Chinese sectors including chemicals, furniture and machinery, people familiar said. The measures may be unveiled as soon as the first quarter. BBG

- The Dutch government aims to cut 25,000 civil servant jobs in an AI-led efficiency drive targeting annual savings of €3.5 billion. BBG

- President Donald Trump at a Sunday political rally predicted a trade dispute with Canada would be resolved "soon," without providing specifics. RTRS

- French assets rallied after the country avoided a Moody’s downgrade and a repeat over the weekend of large-scale violence and looting. BBG

- Trump pledged more announcements on the economy after Volkswagen unveiled plans to build a new $4 billion Audi factory in Georgia. The president’s failure to bring down the cost of living is weighing on Republicans’ midterm campaigns. BBG

- EQT agreed to buy Range Resources in an all-stock transaction, with each Range share exchanged for 0.987 EQT shares; the combined company will have an enterprise value of more than $50 billion. RRC rises 14% premarket, EQT falls 4.2%. BBG

- Average yields on triple-C rated junk bonds topped 16% for the first time since 2020 on Friday, and last week’s 1.6% loss was the biggest in 18 months. BBG

- HSBC strategists moved to overweight developed-market government bonds from maximum underweight, saying underperformance “has become stretched,” and turned neutral on equities from maximum overweight. BBG

- Germany's Ifo business climate index rose to 90.2 in October, beating the 89.9 estimate and improving for a sixth month. BBG

- The PBOC unveiled a liquidity backstop for non-bank bond investors, setting up a swap facility for large non-bank bond redemptions. BBG

- Elon Musk said SpaceX has closed a $40 billion debt deal to pay for the chips needed to fuel its AI ambitions; people familiar said pricing talks were still ongoing. BBG

- Instacart is in talks to sell itself, citing people familiar with the matter: The Information

- Amex is set to slash 5% of headcount as transaction volumes fall short. BBG

- US President Trump posted "...Libya cannot remain a corridor for illegal migration, and this must end now. The United States remains firmly committed to strengthening our bilateral relationship". Truth Social

- Goldman expects the FOMC to skip raising rates at its October meeting but to deliver a second hike in December; JPM's Feroli sees a hold with two hawkish dissents (Hammack and Logan). GIR / JPM
A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks were mixed with a mostly negative bias following last week's surge in oil and amid ongoing geopolitical risks, while participants await this week's tech earnings and several major central bank rate decisions. ASX 200 mildly outperformed, with the index kept afloat as strength in the local real estate, tech and the commodity-related sectors offset the losses in defensives, telecoms and financials. Nikkei 225 was lower amid tech headwinds and with SoftBank choppy after reports that its CEO Son is discussing a USD 50bln investment plan in Malaysia focused on AI and data centres. KOSPI retreated with some indecision seen in the tech heavyweights ahead of their Q3 earnings results this week, while SK Hynix clarified it is considering various shareholder‑return options, but added that nothing was decided and it will unveil additional plans after its Q3 earnings announcement, in response to reports that it plans a KRW 16.0tln special dividend from gains on its Kioxia investment. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were mixed with price action range-bound amid several earnings releases, while trade frictions lingered with China firmly opposing a US Treasury proposal to expand the scope and severity of restrictions on US investment in China.

Top Asian News

- Japan's Top Automobile Industry Union Group Chief said "we look beyond inflation-linked pay hikes for 2027 labour talks".

- China's fifth plenum gets underway, as scheduled, which is a closed-door convention involving officials from the Communist Party's Central Committee, while President Xi delivers the Work Report at the plenum, according to CCTV.

- Japanese PM Takaichi said she wants results on tax cut and oil diversification bills.
European bourses (Stoxx 600 +0.4%) are broadly firmer this morning, following on from a mixed APAC handover. The CAC 40 (+0.9%) is amongst the outperformers, after Moody’s maintained France's credit rating at Aa3 with a Negative Outlook despite recent civil unrest and rising political risks. A decision which comes despite the heightened risk of a downgrade, and hence lifted French-related assets. Over in Spain, the IBEX 35 (-0.5%) is the European underperformer, weighed on by pressure in Telefonica (-7%). The Co. was subject to a downgrade at JPMorgan (Neutral to Underweight), with the firm citing concerns related to its debt structure and its UK JV, VMO2. Moreover, Santander (-4%) shares have fallen following Brazil President Lula's victory in the elections, with investors now worried about the fiscal situation in the region. European sectors hold a strong positive bias. The typical cyclical sectors hold towards the top of the pile, with Travel & Leisure leading, joined closely by Autos. A move facilitated by pressure in the crude complex, which in turn has pushed the Energy sector towards the foot of the pile. There has been a lot of focus on some healthcare names this morning; AstraZeneca (+1%, SAFFRON Phase III trial showed statistically significant improvement in progression-free survival vs chemotherapy), Bayer (+3.3%, Phase III DASL-HiCaP trial showed a statistically significant 58% reduction in the risk of metastasis vs the placebo), Novartis (-0.3%, Remibrutinib met its primary endpoint but fell short of analyst expectations). Other key movers: Man Group (+4.7%, Co. expands partnership with Meiji Yasuda), Computacenter (+8%, lifts profit forecast), Plus500 (+4%, raises FY26 outlook after reporting solid Q3 growth). US equity futures (ES +0.4%, NQ +0.4%, RTY +0.4%) are all trading with modest gains this morning. The complex has been gradually moving higher in early trade, benefiting from the pressure seen in oil prices throughout the morning. There was no real driver for the action, but with markets potentially focusing on a delegation meeting (including Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan) in Tehran on Monday.

Top European News

- UK Chancellor Healey will use his budget this week to protect pensioners and those saving for their retirement as he announces plans to shield nearly one million people from paying income tax, according to The Times. Healey is expected to confirm on Wednesday that the full state pension will rise by GBP 489 to GBP 13,036, and that will be equivalent to a 3.9% rise.

- UK Chancellor Healey will use the upcoming budget to give mayors in England additional funding and powers, including a GBP 1.5bln borrowing facility, as part of plans to shift economic decision-making away from Westminster.

- UK pledged GBP 100mln for an AI Biosecurity Lab supported by OpenAI, Anthropic and Google DeepMind, as part of efforts to improve the government's ability to understand and address risks posed by the technology.

- UK PM Burnham said he is "not proposing re-joining the EU in this parliament", Sky's McDaid reported; but would like to re-join at some point in his lifetime.

- UK PM Burnham rules out an early election; said, "I don’t think people want another backward looking squabble. They want me to get on with the job", The Times reported.

- UK PM Burnham opened the door to Britain readopting the EU's free-movement rules, according to The Sunday Times. It was separately reported that Burnham called for an 'honest discussion' on the free movement of people, which has sparked a furious debate over Britain readopting EU free movement rules, but rejected the idea that the UK could join the euro or the passport-free Schengen travel area, according to FT.

- UK PM's office said the UK is to spend an additional GBP 432mln to help curb homelessness.

- Protests against the war and rising living costs took place in major Italian cities on Saturday, with some incidents of violence following recent unrest across the country.

- France avoided a repeat of large-scale violence and looting during Saturday's protests, which involved around 110K people in a largely peaceful demonstration confined to the outskirts of Paris and another 300K nationwide. The CGT union put the total at 800K. However, isolated clashes were reported in several cities, with police using tear gas and water cannons.

- France's National Rally reelected Bardella as party president in Orléans on Saturday with 98.98% of the vote, with no opposing candidate, while National Rally's Le Pen vowed a national ‘renewal’ in a campaign launch.

- Moody's maintained France's credit rating at Aa3 with a Negative Outlook despite recent civil unrest and rising political risks, while Scope reaffirmed Italy's rating at BBB+ with a Positive Outlook.
FX

- G10s are broadly softer against a firmer USD. The JPY underperforms, joined closely by the GBP. The EUR holds up relatively well, after France avoided a ratings downgrade from Moody's on Friday.

- DXY softened in Asia as oil prices pulled back and yields eased, but has gradually ground higher since, and currently sits at the top end of a 101.58 to 101.82 range ahead of Friday and Thursday’s peaks at 101.85 and 101.88 respectively. The US data docket is light for the day (Dallas Fed Manufacturing, Chicago Fed National Activity), so attention turns to Wednesday's FOMC, where money markets lean heavily towards a hold, alongside a busy week of tech earnings and any US-Iran developments. In geopolitics, President Trump said he is nearing a decision on whether to strike a deal with Iran or resume military strikes. Meanwhile, Barclays' month-end model points to weak USD buying vs most majors, with no directional bias against EUR or JPY.

- GBP was the initial laggard this morning, but now off worst levels and remains towards the bottom of the G10 pile. Cable trades at the bottom end of a 1.3344-1.3388 range after finding resistance at the 100 DMA (1.3387), with no clear driver for the weakness apart from a myriad of UK budget leaks over the weekend and relative aforementioned EUR resilience. Focus this week is on Wednesday's Autumn Budget, where Chancellor Healey is expected to confirm a 3.9% rise in the full state pension, while it was also reported over the weekend that PM Burnham opened the door to Britain readopting the EU's free-movement rules.

- EUR/USD trades in a tight 1.1202-1.1227 range, holding just above the 1.12 mark, where EUR 1.2bln of options roll off at today's NY cut. Moody's maintained France's Aa3 rating with a negative outlook on Friday, defying some expectations of a downgrade, while France largely avoided a repeat of the looting seen during previous protests on Saturday; further protests are planned for 31st October and 5th November. The ECB policy decision is due on Thursday.

- USD/JPY is firmer and holds towards the upper end of a 156.65-157.34 range, with USD 3.1bln of options at 158.00 rolling off at today's NY cut. The BoJ is widely expected to keep rates on hold when it concludes its two-day meeting on Friday.

- The Antipodeans are softer; NZD/USD trades towards the bottom end of a 0.5685-0.5707 range, while AUD/USD holds within a 0.7022-0.7040 band. Both are in focus this week, with the RBNZ policy decision on Wednesday and Australian CPI also due Wednesday.

- CFTC Positioning (w/e 20th Oct): USD net long; EUR net short; JPY net long; GBP net short; AUD net short; NZD net short; CAD net short; CHF net short.

- Brazil's Electoral Authority confirmed that Brazil's Lula was re-elected president in the runoff vote, while Bolsonaro said extending voting hours was unacceptable, and it is impossible to acknowledge election results. Furthermore, Bolsonaro said they will ask that the election be annulled.

- PBoC set USD/CNY midpoint at 6.7162 vs exp. 6.6691 (prev. 6.7180).
Central Banks

- RBA's Brad Jones said in panel participation at AFR Super and Wealth Summit that super tailwinds will become headwinds as members deaccumulate and that unexpected super early release poses financial stability risk. AI valuations are punchy with increasing debt and vendor financing. Geopolitical fragmentation poses new financial system risks.

- PBoC is to set up bond market NBFI swap facility to maintain bond market stability.

- Swiss Weekly Sight Deposits (w/e Oct 23) Total: 434.743bln (prev. 457.01bln); Domestic 434.743bln (prev. 435.36bln).
Fixed Income

- A slightly mixed start to the week for fixed income. Initial strength was a function of the energy pullback; however, benchmarks remain at elevated levels given the punchy rhetoric, and Dutch TTF has climbed significantly this morning, bringing the EUR 100/MWh mark into view.

- USTs were firmer by around five ticks early doors, at a 106-10+ peak, shy of last week’s highs at 106-14+ and 106-16+ from Friday and Thursday respectively. This week is, of course, dominated by the Fed on Wednesday. Ahead of that, geopolitics will continue to influence, and by extension the recent growth/inflation discourse will feature, before PCE post-Fed.

- OATs opened higher by around 70 ticks, after Moody’s maintained the rating, an Aa3, Outlook Negative rating that is one notch higher than both S&P and Fitch’s assessment of France. The hold was broadly on the assumption that a deficit-reducing budget will at some point be adopted. Given the challenging political and deteriorating fiscal backdrop in France, this was perhaps a stay of execution rather than a change in the narrative; next, we have S&P on November 27th.

- Upside that has largely held for OATs, and by extension the OAT-Bund 10yr yield spread has narrowed by almost 8bps today, after narrowing a similar amount on Friday, taking it to a 158bps low, vs Friday’s 176bps recent peak. However, MTD, it remains wider by over 30bps.

- Bunds in-fitting with USTs directionally, saw a slightly larger pullback in early hours and is hit by around 30 ticks at the time of writing, a function of the mentioned gas strength and as we look to this week’s ECB, with Moody’s hold on France removing one of the arguments for a, relatively speaking, more-dovish confab. Currently, at a 121.87 low.

- Finally, Gilts opened with very modest gains, before succumbing to the regional pressure and slipping by around 10 ticks. However, Gilt action is comparably a touch more contained, as focus remains firmly on the budget, while weekend press updates on that and UK PM Burnham's approach to the EU were unsurprising, but still a net-supportive factor for the benchmark.

- Schneider Electric (SU FP) to sell EUR-denominated notes in a six parter.
Commodities

- Crude benchmarks are lower by over 1.5% this morning, extending on the pullback seen in the Asia-Pac session. WTI Dec'26 currently holds at the bottom end of a USD 100.60-102.63/bbl range, whilst Brent Jan'27 trades at the lower end of a USD 109.22-110.98/bbl band. However, both benchmarks remain comfortably within Friday's broad ranges (WTI: USD 98.84-103.92/bbl; Brent: USD 108.33-112.45/bbl), when crude surged and both benchmarks closed near the top of their ranges.

- The gradual pressure in the crude complex lacks a clear driver, but markets may be focusing on a meeting in Tehran on Monday between senior officials from Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan and their Iranian counterparts, to discuss regional coordination. On the diplomatic front, Iran's FM Araghchi proposed a 7-day plan to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, subject to conditions, while US President Trump said he is nearing a decision on whether to negotiate a deal with Iran or resume military strikes. The pullback in crude has helped lift broader sentiment across equities this morning.

- Dutch TTF bucks the trend and is firmer by c. 3%, holding towards the upper end of a EUR 94.25-97.64/MWh range. The contract has climbed steadily throughout the Asia-Pac session and into the European morning, although it has eased slightly from its session peak. There has been no clear headline catalyst for the move, although colder weather forecasts have been cited as supportive, while the European gas benchmark remains underpinned by ongoing LNG disruptions and low EU storage levels heading into the winter period. Elsewhere, Iran's President is set to visit Russia today to attend the gas exporting countries' summit, while Goldman Sachs last week said it still sees upside risks to its year-end TTF forecast of EUR 70/MWh. Across the Atlantic, Henry Hub futures are a touch lower, within a USD 2.932-3.026/MMBtu range.

- Precious metals are firmer, with spot gold back above the USD 4k/oz mark and holding at the upper end of a USD 3,978-4,022/oz range, after trading sideways just beneath that level overnight, as participants await this week's central bank announcements, including the FOMC on Wednesday. Spot silver trades within a USD 53.62-54.41/oz band.

- 3M LME Copper is little changed and sits at the top end of a USD 14,247.78-14,361.18/t range.

- US CENTCOM said it helped Gulf states export more than 1.5bln bbls of oil since the summer.

- Libya reopened the oil pipeline from the Hamada and Tahara oilfields to Zawiya. It was also reported that Libya's NOC reopened the Brega refinery following its closure for maintenance.

- United Arab Emirates closed additional beaches amid concerns over environmental and health impacts following an oil spill in the Persian Gulf.

- IEA chief Birol said he doesn't see any credible pathway for energy markets to return to pre-Iran war levels in 2027.

- Iranian President is to visit Russia today to attend the gas exporting countries' summit, Tasnim reported.
Trade/Tariffs

- EU reportedly plans to hit China with import curbs on chemicals and furniture, Bloomberg TV reported; to present new curbs on China trade as early as Q1'27.

- US President Trump defended his decision to impose tariffs during a campaign rally in Georgia, claiming they had made the US richer. He announced that Volkswagen (VOW3 GY) had agreed to build a new USD 4.2bln Audi plant in the state. Trump added that his administration had “many other announcements” to make following the announcement of Volkswagen AG's plans to build the factory.

- US President Trump said they are getting close to a deal with Canada and that a deal could come before the elections.

- White House economic adviser Hassett said US trade negotiations with Canada had picked up and were “gathering steam”, according to an interview with Fox News.

- China said it “firmly opposes” a US Treasury proposal to expand the scope and severity of restrictions on US investment in China, describing the measures as discriminatory and “a typical example of an overly broad application of national security concerns”. China's MOFCOM added that the proposed restrictions ran counter to the “important consensus” reached by the two countries' presidents and would harm bilateral economic and trade cooperation, as well as US companies' interests, while it added that Beijing will closely monitor developments and reserves the right to take corresponding measures.
Geopolitics: Iran

- US President Trump said it was “getting to be decision time” on whether to strike a deal with Tehran or resume attacks, stating, “I have a decision to make: Do I finish it off, which would be very easy to do, or do I make a deal? That’s all,” according to an interview with Fox News' Sunday Morning Futures.

- US President Trump reiterated on Sunday that the Iran conflict will be ending soon one way or another, while he said higher oil prices are a small price to pay for preventing Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon and that there won't be a strike on Iran 'today'.

- US President Trump's administration's senior intelligence official warned in a memo that Iran had ramped up efforts to target US personnel, adding that lethal plots by Tehran against US citizens had reached "advanced stages".

- US ordered the departure of diplomatic personnel and adjusted staffing at embassies across the Middle East due to Iranian efforts to target Americans and threats from Houthi militants in Yemen, according to a US official.

- US official said that they have put together an expanded list of bombing targets in Iran, which include energy and economic infrastructure, while it was also reported that Israeli PM Netanyahu could order a strike on Iran even if he loses the election, according to The New York Times.

- Senior officials from Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan are expected to meet with Iranian officials in Tehran on Monday to discuss regional coordination, according to Sabereen News.

- US forces in the Middle East are reportedly prepared to launch major strikes against Iran within 96 hours of US President Trump's approval, CNN reported. US officials familiar with military planning say it is a question of when, not if, Trump orders renewed strikes against Iran; action likely to be after midterms. "Officials say that Trump has not made up his mind on what he will do after the midterms but that he appears to be leaning toward ordering major action".

- Iran's Foreign Minister Araghchi proposes a 7-day plan to reopen the Strait of Hormuz with conditions, while he stated that US military aggression and sanctions are key obstacles, adds energy cooperation with Russia boosts security and exports.

- Iranian Foreign Minister said the Qatari delegation's visit to Iran is within the context of talks in the region. Adds that, US sanctions will impact on regional ties. Consultations are continuously underway with Pakistan to resolve technical problems more quickly.

- Iran's FM spokesperson Baghaei, in response to the claim of a negotiation proposal from the Europeans, said "apart from a statement emphasizing the importance of negotiations, we did not see any specific proposal from the Europeans".

- Iran's FM spokesperson said "Iran has never closed the window of diplomacy and has been steadfast in implementing international agreements, but the history of America's reneging on commitments cannot be ignored".

- Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi said "fundamental and strategic changes" in the region mean "nothing will be the same" after the 40‑day war, including management of the Strait of Hormuz, while he stated that Tehran's policies will not change "whether war breaks out or not" and warned against a military attack on Iran.

- Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Baghaei criticised US Secretary of State Rubio's accusations of piracy against Iran and stated that the US takes pride in piracy itself.

- Iranian officials warned their targets will include US diplomats if the US returns to war, according to NYT.

- Iran's head of the Parliament's Civil Engineering Commission said that the Strait of Hormuz is completely under Iran's control, adding that they are increasing speed of oil price growth in the coming days.

- Iran is reportedly launching missiles at ships, according to Open Source Intel.

- Iranian activist on Telegram posted an IRGC launcher in Sirik was hit by a missile from an unknown fighter jet minutes after firing a missile towards the Strait of Hormuz.

- Iranian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Baghaei said the outcome of Israel's elections does not matter to Tehran.

- Israeli Defence Minister Katz denies plans to attack Iran before the elections, N12 reporters say, citing sources.

- Israeli PM Netanyahu told Israel's Channel 14 that they will strike Iran again. In relevant news, Israeli PM Netanyahu and IDF Chief Zamir reportedly clashed over a proposed military action against Iran as Netanyahu wanted to strike Iran before the elections, while Zamir requested further discussions and warned of escalation just two days before Israel’s election, according to Channel 12.
Geopolitics: Saudi-Houthi

- Houthis say they targeted Saudi Arabia's East-West crude oil pumping stations with drones and also attacked King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh, although there is no immediate confirmation from Saudi Arabia.

- Houthi media outlets report airstrikes targeting locations in Sanaa, Yemen.

- Saudi-led coalition said it carried out military operation against Houthi targets in Yemen to neutralise sources of threats, while operation destroyed five ballistic missile storage facilities and four missile launch platforms in Houthi-controlled areas.

- Saudi-led coalition said it destroyed two missile launchers in Yemen's Sanaa and that one had targeted Riyadh.

- "A fire broke out at the Rabigh refinery (400k BPD) in Saudi Arabia after the Yemeni armed forces targeted the refinery", Sabereen News.
Geopolitics: Ukraine

- US President Trump said US-Russia-Ukraine three-way talks are to take place very soon and that he believes both sides want a deal.

- Ukrainian President Zelensky said the US, Russia and Ukraine plan trilateral technical talks in November, while he stated that Kyiv will not trade anything in exchange but is willing to hold talks and that territorial issues must be handled at the leaders' level, although other matters can be handled by technical working groups.

- Russia's Defence Ministry said Russian forces hit a cargo vessel in the Black Sea.

- EU leaders are preparing to come to a deal on around EUR 45bln of support for Ukraine by end-2026, Politico reported citing sources; as a loan, guaranteed by the existing EU budget.
Geopolitics: Other

- North Korea said it sent a letter to the UN Security Council saying South Korea fabricated mine explosion incidents to delay and impede North Korea's border fortification, according to KCNA. South Korea's provocation, such as opening fire on North Korean service personnel, is a violation of the UN Charter.
Crypto

- Bitcoin is a touch firmer this morning and trades just above the USD 80k mark; Ethereum is also mildly stronger, and sits around USD 2.3k.
US Event Calendar

- 08:30: Sept. Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index, est. -0.10, prior -0.04

- 10:30: Oct. Dallas Fed Manf. Activity, est. 8.8, prior 9.8

- 11:30: US to sell $95 billion 13-week bills and $82 billion 26-week bills

- 13:00: US to sell $69 billion 2-year notes
Central Bank Speakers

- None: the Fed is in its external communications blackout ahead of Wednesday's FOMC decision
DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

As we hit the last week of October, markets are continuing to grapple with three major themes: France, Iran and AI. Although less relevant for DM investors, Brazil's surprise election result overnight, which could lead to a -25% currency adjusted decline in Brazilian equities today if overnight derivative contracts are a guide, will also be one to watch. So lots going on and also a busy week ahead around the globe. So for those who saw their clocks go back this weekend, I hope you used it for an extra hour of sleep!

Although several hundred thousand people marched and protested in France over the weekend, the more extreme scenes of the previous weekend were absent, suggesting the authorities have regained some control of the situation. France also got a boost on Friday night as Moody’s defied market expectations and maintained their Aa3 rating (negative outlook) on the sovereign. The expected one-notch cut would only have taken it in line with S&P’s A+, so shouldn’t have been too destabilising. The Euro spiked a couple of tenths very late on Friday immediately after the news and is +0.13% higher this morning, with French bond futures rising nearly three-quarters of a point.

Next the Middle East. This is likely to remain one of the main market focuses this week, with the pause in direct US-Iran fighting looking increasingly fragile. Reports from various media suggest Washington and Israel are considering renewed strikes after the US midterms, which are only 8 days away now, against a backdrop of a larger US military presence in the region, reduced diplomatic staffing and increasingly forceful Iranian warnings about retaliation. Trump said to Fox yesterday that it's "getting to be decision time" on whether he will resume attacks or make a deal. At least the deal part is still part of the conversation.

Meanwhile, disruption around the Strait of Hormuz remains a key market risk, particularly after last week’s renewed rise in oil prices. Before the US vote comes Israel’s election tomorrow, the sixth since 2019, with the final polls still pointing to deadlock: neither Netanyahu’s bloc nor the opposition appears close to the 61 seats needed for a majority, while Eisenkot’s opposition has a modest lead in the latest polling averages. Protracted coalition talks or fresh elections are reasonable risks. Netanyahu has said he does not favour a pre-emptive strike on Iran before the election, but has left the post-election position open. A result that weakens Netanyahu could lower the immediate odds of Israeli-led escalation, whereas another stalemate — or a Netanyahu-led coalition — could leave the incentive for renewed military action intact.

The third theme is AI, and this week should provide an unusually important test of the recent concerns around the sector. Alphabet and Microsoft report on Wednesday, with Amazon following on Thursday, so the market’s reaction to their results and, especially, the latest capex plans could rival Wednesday’s FOMC for top billing. Indeed, given the recent AI-related market wobbles, the earnings may ultimately matter more for markets than the Fed, the ECB meeting on Thursday or the BoJ on Friday. September's important PCE comes the day after the FOMC, so will have a bit less impact than normal but will count heavily towards the December FOMC. Other US releases include Thursday’s US Q3 GDP. Elsewhere, Wednesday also brings the UK Autumn Budget, where those of us in this country will keep a careful eye on what the Chancellor has in store for our taxes! Friday is particularly busy in Europe, with flash October inflation and preliminary Q3 GDP releases.

Focusing in on the US week ahead now, our economists expect the Fed to leave rates unchanged on Wednesday. Futures are pricing in less than a 10% chance of a hike after briefly spiking above 50% less than a couple of weeks ago after the CPI print. The interest will therefore be in Chair Warsh’s press conference and how the Fed balances still-elevated inflation and solid growth against the recent tightening in financial conditions. Our economists expect the statement itself to contain only limited changes, although dissents to a hold are possible. The broader message is still likely to be hawkish: our economists think recent inflation data support the case for further tightening over time, even if the Fed chooses to pause this week. They also expect Warsh to make clear that tighter financial conditions are not a substitute for higher policy rates.

The US data should matter for that debate too. Tomorrow brings September durable goods orders and October Conference Board consumer confidence, with our economists expecting durable goods to remain firm, helped by aircraft orders and AI-related capex. The biggest data day is Thursday, when September personal income and spending, PCE inflation and the advance Q3 GDP estimate are all released. Our economists are tracking September core PCE at +0.36% MoM, equivalent to 3.14% YoY absent revisions, although revisions to some August PPI components could keep the annual rate from rounding up to 3.2%. Our economists expect Q3 real GDP growth of +3.3% annualised, up from +2.2% in Q2. On Friday, the Q3 employment cost index will provide an important read on labour-cost pressures; a strong upside surprise would make it harder to maintain the view that the labour market is not adding to inflation pressure.

Elsewhere in the US, today brings the September Chicago Fed national activity index and October Dallas Fed manufacturing survey. Wednesday also sees the September advance goods trade balance and retail inventories, while Friday brings October MNI Chicago PMI. Other large US reporters during the week outside of Microsoft, Alphabet and Amazon include Visa, Coca-Cola, Boeing, Mastercard, Intel, Caterpillar, Eli Lilly, ExxonMobil and Chevron.

Globally, central banks dominate. Our economists expect the ECB to keep policy rates unchanged on Thursday (see here), following tomorrow’s bank lending survey. Our Chief Japan economist expects the BoJ to hold on Friday (see here). The market is pricing less than a 3% probability of either hiking. However, it's an 85% and 88% probability of the Bank of Canada and Reserve Bank of New Zealand of hiking on Wednesday.

Europe has a particularly busy end to the week but before that Germany’s October Ifo survey is out today and November GfK consumer confidence on Wednesday. On Friday, flash October inflation is released across the region: our economists expect headline CPI of 2.92% YoY in Germany, 3.58% in France and 4.95% in Italy. Preliminary Q3 GDP figures for Germany, France, Italy and the Eurozone are also due on Friday. In the UK, the main event is Wednesday’s Autumn Budget.

In Asia, China’s Central Committee plenum runs through to Thursday, while September industrial profits are released tomorrow. Japan has a heavy Friday calendar, including October Tokyo CPI, September unemployment, the job-to-applicant ratio, retail sales, industrial production and housing starts, alongside the BoJ decision. Australia’s September CPI is due on Wednesday.

Politics adds another layer. The market will react to Brazil's shock election result today that we mentioned above and go into detail on below, Israel holds legislative elections tomorrow, the EU-Canada summit takes place on Thursday and Friday, and the G20 foreign ministers meet in Atlanta on Friday and Saturday.

Finally, it is a major global earnings week beyond US megacap technology. SK hynix (Wednesday) and Samsung Electronics (Thursday) earning will have global ramifications from the tech sector, while healthcare earnings includes Novartis, Eli Lilly, AbbVie, AstraZeneca and Sanofi; energy includes Shell, TotalEnergies, ExxonMobil, Chevron and BP; and autos include Porsche, Ford, Mercedes-Benz and Volkswagen.

In Asia, the KOSPI (-0.90%) is leading declines as weakness in technology shares weighs on sentiment. Elsewhere, the Nikkei (-0.34%), CSI 300 (-0.47%), and Shanghai Composite (-0.09%) are also trading moderately lower. In contrast, the Hang Seng (+0.51%) and S&P/ASX 200 (+0.17%) are outperforming and bucking the broader regional trend. S&P 500 (+0.20%) and Nasdaq (+0.24%) futures are higher.

In Brazil, President Lula pulled off a remarkable and genuinely market-moving comeback overnight, winning a record fourth term by 51.8% to 48.2% against Flávio Bolsonaro, despite having lost the first round 45.1%-47.0% three weeks ago. It is the first time since Brazil returned to direct presidential elections in 1989 that the first-round runner-up has gone on to win the runoff. The result wrong-footed a market that had increasingly priced a Bolsonaro victory. A Tokyo-listed ETF tracking Brazilian equities fell around -15% in Asian trading, with the real also tracking a -10% decline according to derivatives. Bolsonaro had been viewed as the more market-friendly candidate and, after right- and centre-right parties increased their Senate share from 47% to 63% in the first round, investors had been anticipating a better chance of fiscal consolidation. Lula, by contrast, has promised an adjustment without yet specifying how it will be delivered. The important medium-term point, however, is that the rightward shift in Congress remains even after Lula's victory, which should constrain the administration's ability to pursue a materially looser fiscal agenda. So once the immediate election premium and Bolsonaro's challenge to the result are digested, the bigger question for Brazilian assets will be whether Lula can use that congressional constraint to establish a credible fiscal path. That matters, especially with debt concerns already keeping rates high.

Recapping last week now, markets grappled with several risks including the French fiscal situation, AI growth fears, and a fresh jump in energy prices. We’ll dive into each, but in terms of the size of the market moves, the French situation saw the biggest reaction. In fact, the weekly widening in the Franco-German 10yr spread was still +29.5bps, even as it retreated by -6.8bps on Friday. That came as France’s 10yr OAT yield climbed +21.5bps last week to 5.01%, whilst the 10yr German bund yield fell -8.0bps to 3.34%. So that left the spread at 167bps, not far off from its closing peak during the Euro Crisis, when it moved as high as 189bps. Other assets struggled as well, with both the CAC 40 (-2.19%) and the STOXX Banks (-5.10%) falling to their lowest level since March and June, respectively, although the STOXX 600 saw a comparatively smaller decline of -1.39% (-0.31% Friday).

As that was happening, several AI names remained under pressure last week, with the Philly semiconductor index losing ground for a third consecutive week, falling -3.21% (+0.44% Friday). And, in turn, losses for chip stocks dragged down US equities more broadly, with the NASDAQ down -0.71% (-0.21% Friday), whilst the S&P 500 fell -0.47% (-0.52% Friday). The individual decliners included CoreWeave, which fell -11.65% (-2.46% Friday), and whose 5yr CDS rose another +19bps last week to 1146bps. Meanwhile, Meta’s share price fell -9.40% last week (-0.96% Friday) following its earnings, and its 5yr CDS rose +22bps to 127bps.

Elsewhere, Brent crude oil prices rose for a 3rd consecutive week, up +6.24% (+3.14% Friday) to $116.72/bbl, closing in on its $118.35/bbl post-2022 peak reached in March. Moreover, European natural gas futures also hit a post-2022 high of €93.85/MWh, having risen +7.20% last week (+4.23% Friday). That came as fears mounted about a wider escalation in the Middle East, including a New York Times report which said that the US and Israel had drawn up plans for renewed strikes against Iran after the midterm elections.

Amidst all that, US Treasuries put in a strong performance, with the 10yr yield down -7.9bps last week (+4.1bps Friday) to 4.99%. Otherwise, the Euro weakened somewhat against the Dollar, falling -0.33% last week to $1.1202. And in credit, spreads widened across the board, with US HY (+6bps), EUR HY (+40bps), US IG (+5bps), and EUR IG (+15bps) all widening. Indeed, for US HY, it was the 6th consecutive weekly widening, which is the first time that’s happened since 2022. The headline moves understated the decompression down the rating spectrum: Euro BBs widened +26bps and Bs +46bps, while CCCs were +105bps wider. US BBs widened just +3bps and Bs +8bps compared with +59bps for CCCs. So one of the clearer messages from the week was that the pressure remains concentrated in the weakest credits rather than representing indiscriminate HY selling, especially in the US.

https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden
Mon, 10/26/2026 - 08:29

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/futures-rise-meta-jumps-95bn-equity-raise-oil-slides-brazil-crashes-after-lula-shock

"Guppy-Level Death": Musk Warns Of Mass AI Neocloud ...

2026-10-26T12:20:00Z

"Guppy-Level Death": Musk Warns Of Mass AI Neocloud Failures Amid Funding Crunch

"Guppy-Level Death": Musk Warns Of Mass AI Neocloud Failures Amid Funding Crunch

https://cointelegraph.com/news/musk-warns-over-200-ai-neoclouds-face-guppy-level-death,

Elon Musk warns that over 200 specialist AI cloud providers could fail or consolidate as lenders tighten up their purse strings.

Musk https://x.com/elonmusk/status/2114434646914068862 Sunday on X that lenders had largely stopped providing financing to companies without substantial revenue streams outside AI data centers. He said SpaceX had secured $40 billion in debt financing for GPUs because of its investment-grade status and revenue from its Starlink satellite internet and rocket businesses.

"That means the 200+ neoclouds are going to see guppy-level death and consolidation. Some will make it through, but not many," he said.

Pretty much. As of the past few weeks, debt markets have almost entirely shut off access to money for any company that doesn’t have substantial revenue independent of AI data centers. SpaceX closed $40B of debt for GPUs, but we’re investment grade and have Starlink & launch revenue. That means the 200+ neoclouds are going to see guppy-level death and consolidation. Some will make it through, but not many.
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) https://x.com/elonmusk/status/2114434646914068862?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
A neocloud is a specialist cloud company that rents out computing power for AI, usually through data centers packed with powerful GPUs.

Musk's warning follows an https://www.gartner.com/en/newsroom/press-releases/2026-10-14-gartner-says-over-us-dollars-three-and-a-half-trillion-of-artificial-intelligence-infrastructure-spending-could-be-exposed-to-impairment-by-the-end-of-2030 from research firm Gartner that more than 80% of neocloud providers will cease operating independently by 2030, as the industry struggles to generate sufficient returns on massive AI infrastructure investments.

The warnings could also have implications for Bitcoin miners that have pivoted into AI infrastructure. For example, https://cointelegraph.com/news/bernstein-bitcoin-mining-deals-necessary-ai-power-crunch, renting computing power to customers, while Core Scientific https://cointelegraph.com/news/core-scientific-q1-loss-bitcoin-mining-revenue-falls for neocloud customers such as CoreWeave.

In its forecast, Gartner said AI providers are expected to spend nearly $1 trillion on infrastructure in 2026 and another $6 trillion between 2027 and 2030, but said there is insufficient revenue to deliver profitable returns on all those investments.

The pressure could be particularly acute for neoclouds, which must earn enough from AI computing services to sustain their operations. Larger cloud companies have more diversified revenue streams that could support AI investment for years, Gartner said.

Even strong market growth may not be enough. Gartner forecasts spending on AI-optimized infrastructure-as-a-service will rise from $66 billion in 2027 to $174 billion in 2030, but said most providers could struggle to recover their investment before the current generation of AI chips is replaced.

SpaceX sees sharp jump in AI revenue

Musk's comments came days after https://cointelegraph.com/markets/musk-says-spacex-tesla-merger-a-good-idea-as-ai-revenue-jumps-ninefold that its "Super Intelligence" business generated $7.6 billion in third-quarter revenue, up 830% from a year earlier and accounting for more than half of the company's $14.6 billion in quarterly sales.

The company attributed the growth to new cloud services agreements, its acquisition of Cursor and increased adoption of its Grok AI model.

https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden
Mon, 10/26/2026 - 08:20

https://www.zerohedge.com/ai/guppy-level-death-musk-warns-mass-ai-neocloud-failures-amid-funding-crunch

EU Climbs Escalation Ladder With Beijing, Plans Wider Curbs On ...

2026-10-26T12:20:00Z

EU Climbs Escalation Ladder With Beijing, Plans Wider Curbs On Chinese Imports

EU Climbs Escalation Ladder With Beijing, Plans Wider Curbs On Chinese Imports

Europe's political elite is belatedly confronting the electoral cost of deindustrialization, as right-wing gains in local elections expose surging voter anger over globalist policies that have crushed the industrial base. The push to curb cheap Chinese imports suggests Brussels is scrambling for political survival, as Nomura analysts recently said elections across the continent over the next year and a half are expected to shift right.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-10-26/eu-plans-to-hit-china-with-more-import-curbs-in-early-2027 reports that the EU is preparing restrictions on imports of chemicals, furniture, and machinery from China, expanding efforts to shield domestic manufacturers and narrow the massive trade deficit with China, which stands at $404 billion. The report cited people familiar with the matter.

"Our industries have called for action and we have heard them, and we will respond, including some more safeguards," Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said earlier this month.

The proposed safeguards build on earlier news that Brussels aims to https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/eu-caps-chinese-hybrids-350000-deutsche-maps-every-trade-weapon-left-europes-arsenal in December to shield the EU's crumbling automotive industry, as cheap overseas cars gain market share and leave domestic companies like VW laying off tens of thousands of workers.

Brussels has finally chosen to move up the "https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/eu-caps-chinese-hybrids-350000-deutsche-maps-every-trade-weapon-left-europes-arsenal"; with China, risking retaliation from Beijing as its own political power appears to be eroding across Europe after decades of backfiring globalist policies that have left the continent with a hollowed-out industrial base.

EU trade chief Maroš Šefčovič is expected to discuss trade with Chinese counterparts early next year, as Brussels must perform a delicate balancing act to avoid provoking Beijing into imposing export restrictions on critical materials and permanent magnets.

Earlier this month, we first reported "https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/better-late-never-eu-prepares-import-cap-chinese-hybrids-germanys-industrial-base-burns"; and our verdict was "https://x.com/zerohedge/status/2107781867600552108."; The more interesting question is how far Brussels is willing to climb up the escalation ladder with Beijing.

Deutsche Bank's Marion Muehlberger https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/eu-caps-chinese-hybrids-350000-deutsche-maps-every-trade-weapon-left-europes-arsenal that in a ten-question Q&A published earlier this month, ahead of Šefčovič's trip to Beijing, titled "https://marketdesk.ai/standalone/yaGGIcvHcaq"; (https://www.zerohedge.com/signup/professional-membership-year). The centerpiece is a single table, which may be the most useful cheat sheet on EU-China trade policy we have seen: every tool Brussels could deploy against Beijing, ranked from most to least likely, with the precedent and the catch for each one.

So far Brussels is willing to raise tariffs and cap imports. But the higher it climbs up the escalation ladder, the greater the risk that Beijing pulls the rare earth supplies, starving the very factories European elites are scrambling to save.

https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden
Mon, 10/26/2026 - 08:20

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/eu-climbs-escalation-ladder-beijing-plans-wider-curbs-chinese-imports

Hold Or Fold? Skipper Warsh & His Hawkish Crew Hold Or Fold? ...

2026-10-26T12:05:00Z

Hold Or Fold? Skipper Warsh & His Hawkish Crew

Hold Or Fold? Skipper Warsh & His Hawkish Crew

https://marketdesk.ai/standalone/70LTTeXUC9q

Summary

-
We expect the FOMC to remain on hold in October. However, we are likely to see Hammack, Kashkari and Logan repeat their July dissents in favor of a hike at this meeting.

-
At the press conference, we expect Warsh to repeat the hawkish form of not providing forward guidance that he presented at Jackson Hole. He may say that the inflation data do not tell him that underlying trends have meaningfully improved, without explicitly stating that a rate hike is coming soon.

-
After skipping October, we expect the FOMC to hike at the next meeting in December.

-
Our baseline forecast for 2027 is that the Fed remains on hold, in line with the most recent dot plot, but the risk is to the upside as we expect inflation to rise further in the coming months.

Introduction

The next meeting of the FOMC takes place on October 27-28. We expect the Committee to keep the target range for the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.75-4.00%. However, we do not expect this decision to be unanimous. We are likely to see a repeat of the dissents by Hammack, Kashkari and Logan at the July meeting, in favor of a hike. At the press conference, we expect Chair Warsh to stick to his principle of not giving forward guidance, but we also think that he will do this in a hawkish way. There will be no update of the economic projections in October, the next is in December.

On hold, with hawkish dissents

At the previous meeting in September, the FOMC unanimously raised the target range for the federal funds rate by 25 bps to 3.75-4.00%. The economic and rate projections provided by the Committee also showed a hawkish shift in the Fed’s reaction function. After hiking in September, skipping October has the benefit of observing more data before the next move. Hiking in December will get the federal funds rate where the median FOMC participant thinks it should be by year-end. Several Fed speakers have also recently indicated that they are not in a hurry. Skipping October also has the benefit of avoiding raising rates less than a week before the midterm elections. The party of the President usually loses seats in the midterms and a rate hike may not lead to a better election outcome. What’s more, President Trump has made clear he actually wants the Fed to lower rates. Of course, the FOMC will deny that the midterms played a role in their decision, as they should.

We expect the FOMC to remain on hold in October, but this is not likely to be a unanimous decision. We are likely to see Hammack, Kashkari and Logan repeat their July dissents in favor of a hike at this meeting. Note that there were four dots in the September dot plot indicating two additional hikes of 25 bps before the end of the year. Skipping October would make this impossible (with 50 bps in December a less likely move), so there are four FOMC participants who don’t want to remain on hold in October, given that recent inflation data have likely bolstered their view. We think that three of these are actually voters, the three dissenters from the July decision to be precise.

Another hawkish form of no forward guidance?

Regarding the next meeting in December, Kevin Warsh has been consistent in refusing to give forward guidance during post-meeting press conferences and other public appearances.

Therefore, we expect him to stick to this principle at the October press conference. However, he is likely to repeat the hawkish form of not providing forward guidance that he presented during his Jackson Hole speech. In his take on the economy, we expect him to repeat that underlying trends in inflation have not meaningfully improved, without explicitly saying that the next hike is coming soon.

We expect the next hike in December. There seems to be strong support for this in the Committee and we expect the inflation data to solidify this support. Given recent developments in oil prices, CPI inflation is likely to rise further, which should raise the probability of a December hike.

Conclusion

Looking further ahead, to 2027, the risks to our baseline scenario that the Fed remains on hold are to the upside. In the September dot plot, the median FOMC participant expected to remain on hold in 2027, after one more hike in 2026. In contrast, futures markets have priced in about three hikes from now. If inflation climbs further due to the recent rebound in oil prices, the median FOMC participant may start to consider an additional hike in 2027, instead of remaining on hold. Our baseline scenario is that after a long pause, the Fed will start cutting in 2028.

Based on our energy price forecasts, we expect CPI inflation to fall to 2.2% in the final quarter of 2027. This should open the door to the first rate cut in the first quarter 2028 (we have pencilled in March). Although outside the scope of the table below, we expect the second cut in March 2029 and the third cut in March 2030.

Based on the resilience that the economy has shown this year, we think that the terminal target range for the federal funds rate is 3.25-3.50%, which means that the FOMC will not cut as far as they now expect (until 3.2%).

https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden
Mon, 10/26/2026 - 08:05

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/hold-or-fold-skipper-warsh-his-hawkish-crew

iPhone Duo Resellers Demand Steep Premiums As Apple Stores Sell ...

2026-10-26T11:45:00Z

iPhone Duo Resellers Demand Steep Premiums As Apple Stores Sell Out, Deliveries Slip To January

iPhone Duo Resellers Demand Steep Premiums As Apple Stores Sell Out, Deliveries Slip To January

Apple's first foldable iPhone quickly sold out of limited in-store inventory Friday, with new orders placed Sunday facing delivery estimates stretching into late January. Early demand appears strong, but whether that momentum holds beyond the initial launch rush remains a big question.

The iPhone Duo drew crowds from New York to Singapore. In the US, each Apple Store received roughly 50 to more than 200 units, according to Bloomberg. One Los Angeles location had no phones available for shoppers arriving after 6:30 a.m.

At a New Jersey store, the 256- and 512-gigabyte versions sold out within half an hour, leaving only higher-priced models, including the 2TB version, which costs more than $3,000.

With limited launch inventories quickly depleted at Apple Stores, customers can turn to the resale market, though at a hefty premium.

An eBay scrape found dozens of US and Italian listings for iPhone Duos. The average asking price across all four storage versions was around $4,188 across 38 listings, excluding a $20,000 outlier, as of Sunday morning.

Average asking prices ranged from $3,353 for 256GB models to $5,355 for 2TB versions. These are asking prices, not completed sales. For context, Apple is selling the 256GB version $1,999.

Scarcity has pushed sellers to charge hefty resale premiums on secondary markets, but those prices may not hold as store inventories replenish over the coming weeks and months. Mass adoption also remains an open question, given that these foldable phones are unaffordable for many consumers.

KeyBanc Capital Markets analyst Brandon Nispel provided clients with an update on Friday of the expected supply increase of the Duos:

Exclusive: Apple raises iPhone Duo shipment target 44% on strong preorders Apple is looking to increase iPhone Duo supply by >40%, from ~10M to ~14M units for the first 12-month period. We think, if true, this supply could come from parts of other iPhones. In addition, we are already estimating 12M units over the first 12 months, and thus don't view this as a material upside driver.

And there's this ...

Foldable iPhone Duo devices are reportedly breaking in large numbers, with displays failing along the hinge crease. Buyers in Japan, China, Australia, and other countries have reported the same issue. In some cases, the display reportedly fails while the phone is still on display in stores. The symptoms are identical: after just a few days of use, a black line appears across the screen.
— Play4Index (@Play4Index) https://x.com/Play4Index/status/2113747171170218091?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw

the iPhone Duo might have CrackGate issue there are so many cases of it on Reddit where it’s breaking in the exact same place https://t.co/IlCJj8kJ8B
— Holly - I like tech (@AnxiousHolly) https://x.com/AnxiousHolly/status/2114076459908387250?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw

A guy on Reddit said his iPhone duo screen cracked along the hinge within six hours. Apple execs have said, “hold us accountable”. This is where all the screens seem to be breaking. H/t @kro_roe https://t.co/nmR3S3ot4d
— Ed Gilmore (@elg) https://x.com/elg/status/2114148078580371591?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
In his Duo review last Wednesday, tech YouTuber Marques Brownlee found that the foldable iPhone's cool factor is high, but it is not for everyone. (https://www.zerohedge.com/technology/polished-rough-first-major-review-casts-doubt-foldable-iphone-duos-mass-adoption.)

https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden
Mon, 10/26/2026 - 07:45

https://www.zerohedge.com/technology/iphone-duo-resellers-demand-steep-premiums-apple-stores-sell-out-deliveries-slip-january

Brazil Stocks Crater As Bolsonaro Seeks To Annul Runoff After ...

2026-10-26T11:30:00Z

Brazil Stocks Crater As Bolsonaro Seeks To Annul Runoff After Socialist Lula's Shock Victory

Brazil Stocks Crater As Bolsonaro Seeks To Annul Runoff After Socialist Lula's Shock Victory

Brazilian Senator Flávio Bolsonaro said overnight that he would seek to annul the presidential runoff, challenging a last-minute, two-hour voting extension granted at the request of socialist President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva's campaign. The order came from Supreme Court Justice Cristiano Zanin, Lula's former personal attorney, whom the president appointed to the high court. Lula later won the runoff after Bolsonaro finished first in the first round earlier this month, setting the stage for a legal challenge to the court's questionable intervention.

BREAKING: Flávio Bolsonaro: It is impossible to recognize the election results in the context of how these things happened. We are going to use our legal team, we are going to request the annulment of these elections. https://t.co/PVtKvb9b3M
— Clash Report (@clashreport) https://x.com/clashreport/status/2114534175361597872?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
According to the electoral court, Lula was re-elected for a record fourth term on Sunday, taking 51.76% of the vote to Bolsonaro's 48.24% in a surprise outcome.

Via Bloomberg:

Bolsonaro said, "It is impossible to recognize the election outcome given the circumstances in which all of this took place," adding, "We will pursue legal action and seek to have the election annulled."

@zerohedge @jeffreytucker Pretty weird …
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) https://x.com/elonmusk/status/2114556215560740959?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
Trump:

JUST IN: Trump threatens to tariff Brazil unless they redo their election
— Spencer Hakimian (@SpencerHakimian) https://x.com/SpencerHakimian/status/2114603881736860119?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
Greta received her talking points:

🇸🇪🇧🇷 Greta has a take on the Brazilian election: Lula = good for the planet Anyone else = literal apocalypse LMAO 🤣🤣🤣 Writer: Samuel https://t.co/5jNhSlYxSM
— Mario Nawfal (@MarioNawfal) https://x.com/MarioNawfal/status/2114394053991153935?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
The questionable voting-extension ruling came minutes after polling stations nationwide were scheduled to close at 5 p.m. local time. Zanin later clarified that it applied only to polling stations that remained open.

Soros Jr happy https://t.co/RGCWgVyZ5s
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) https://x.com/zerohedge/status/2114544012807827801?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
UBS analyst Justin Wensek told clients, "Flavio's annulment request is unlikely to hold water given his campaign also asked for additional time in specific states that were impacted by adverse weather."

The focus now shifts to Brazilian markets, where the "Bolsonaro trade" has reversed and shares of companies across the banking, steel and metals, and oil and gas sectors have plunged:

BANKS, FINANCIAL FIRMS

US-listed shares in lenders fall: Banco Bradesco -27%, Itau Unibanco Holding -28%, NU Holdings -22%, Inter & Co. -32%, Banco Santander (Brasil) -11%

Among other financial firms: PagSeguro Digital -28%, StoneCo -31%, PicS -27%

STEEL, METAL & MINING

Among movers: Companhia Siderurgica Nacional -13%, Vale -7.7%, Gerdau S.A. -14% AERO,

OIL & GAS AND OTHER SECTORS

Among other movers: XP Inc. -39%, Ambev -19%, Embraer -2.6%, MercadoLibre -2.6%, Telefonica Brasil -16%, Companhia Energetica de Minas Gerais -15%, Companhia Paranaense de Energia -17%, Petroleo Brasileiro -19%, Ultrapar Participacoes -18%, Cia de Saneamento Basico do Estado de Sao Paulo (SABESP) -22%, TIM S.A. -17%

iShares MSCI Brazil ETF (EWZ) cratered 27% in premarket trading on the surprise Lula win.

UBS analyst Wensek added more color on the significant repricing of Brazilian assets as the market readjusts to four more years of socialist Lula:

Brazil's fiscal outlook again takes center stage, as debt/GDP trajectory resumes its ominous path. The desk expects a significant re-pricing of Brazilian assets on Monday, as the market adjusts to another four years of Lula, with USDBRL potentially at 5.3 Monday.

Note that FX didn't react that much in the first round; it was more about rates and equities. EM strategist Roque Montero thinks USDBRL could drift to 5.5-5.6 by end-2026 given December negative seasonality.

In rates, Roque expects a 100-150bp move higher. Equities could correct by 10-15% based on latest EWZ reaction. Among stocks, watch for selling pressure/rotation out of SOEs, high beta and rate sensitive names, into defensive, USD leveraged, cash flow generative names. If there is a silver lining, Lula will have to build a coalition to pass key policy initiatives through a more right-leaning Senate and Lower House.

Beyond Bolsonaro's possible court battle to challenge the results, Brazil now faces a financial reckoning as public debt has climbed to 83% of GDP from 71.7% when Lula and the socialists took office in January 2023, leaving traders to digest the continued fiscal deterioration.

ING analysts see a 5%-7% slide in real terms and double-digit stock losses today. The repricing is already underway offshore: Brazil's dollar bonds were among the worst performers in emerging markets, with yields on notes due in 2037 jumping 19 basis points to 6.44%.

What Goldman analysts expect from here:

Rates and equities will see the most damage. In rates, where we settle will depend on damage control on fiscal. There are people close to the president advocating for fiscal consolidation given its impact on financing cost. Market will closely monitor Finance Minister announcement, and the details of fiscal consolidation. Adjustments involving Constitutional spending cap/ fiscal target would be well received, and trim on specific social programs without longer term commitment likely won't calm market. If we see credible fiscal reform, BCB can continue its easing path given the still-very-high real rate, so front-end-to-belly receiver could be attractive again after the correction. Equity market will likely price out optimism around structural reforms to improve SOE/ business environment.

USDBRL – expect to settle in new range of 5.4-5.8. This will limit BCB's ability to accelerate its pace of easing.

Brown Brothers Harriman's Elias Haddad sees a buying opportunity emerging from the selloff.

https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden
Mon, 10/26/2026 - 07:30

https://www.zerohedge.com/political/brazil-stocks-crater-bolsonaro-seeks-annul-runoff-after-socialist-lulas-shock-victory

BBC Caught Pushing Extreme Open Borders Propaganda To Kids BBC ...

2026-10-26T11:20:00Z

BBC Caught Pushing Extreme Open Borders Propaganda To Kids

BBC Caught Pushing Extreme Open Borders Propaganda To Kids

https://modernity.news/2026/10/25/bbc-caught-pushing-extreme-open-borders-propaganda-to-kids/,

The BBC has been forced to strip large sections of its Bitesize education website after an investigation revealed it was feeding extreme left-wing views on mass migration and Net Zero to 1.7 million schoolchildren every week.

The platform, recommended by nearly every state school in the UK and used by almost half of all children aged four to 16, treated open borders as a high-scoring policy choice and labelled concerns that migrants take jobs from locals as "prejudice."

Material began disappearing early last week after senior bosses ordered a review, replaced by a bland message that the content was "currently under review" to stay "up to date and in line with the curriculum."

?WATCH?The BBC is pushing open borders propaganda on Welsh pupils.The below video is an education resource on the geography section of the BBC's "Bitesize" website, for pupils aged 11 to 14 years of age. https://t.co/oKKk90AkrQ
— DOGE Wales ???????? (@SeneddWaste) https://x.com/SeneddWaste/status/2112154903250366971?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw

'This is not an exception, this is happening in schools across the UK all the time.'Historian and author Dr Bella D'Abrera reacts as the BBC is accused of 'brainwashing' children with a pro-migration education tool. https://t.co/tzOpPDQKJG
— GB News (@GBNEWS) https://x.com/GBNEWS/status/2111886086804779161?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw

A page that praised progressive political icons including climate activist Greta Thunberg was also removed. Shadow Education Secretary Laura Trott wrote to BBC director-general Matt Brittin demanding the removal or suspension of any material that failed the corporation's own impartiality standards.

The BBC has no business pushing a left-wing agenda on our children. Games urging pupils to campaign for Amnesty International, which branded gender-critical women's rights organisations "anti-rights", or promoting open borders are completely unacceptable.The BBC must be impartial & I've written to the BBC demanding these "educational games" be removed.
— Laura Trott MP (@LauraTrottMP) https://x.com/LauraTrottMP/status/2112459953860485354?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw

The core problem was a geography game called Increasing Immigration, aimed at 11-to-14-year-olds as part of a wider "Planet Planners" series. It opened with the claim that Britain does not have enough working-age people to keep society running and should attract migrant workers.

Pupils who chose open borders gained three economy points and two public-health points. Those who granted amnesty to "a few" people living without visas received two points in each category and were told "this will make them very happy."

Choosing deportation cost points and triggered the warning that it "can be potentially dangerous for them. Don't expect this to be unchallenged!" Rejecting open borders as "too radical" scored nothing.

Trott said the BBC had "crossed a line" by using learning tools "as a vehicle to push a Left-wing political agenda onto young children." She added that "advocating open borders encourages illegal small boat crossings" and that such "toxic resources dressed up as education" should be "nowhere near the classroom."

In her letter she wrote that materials which "appear to reward children for adopting political positions on contested issues" cannot be reconciled with the BBC's impartiality obligation, and that the game "allows children to think it is acceptable for vile illegal boat crossings to take place."

Other Bitesize material claimed migrants contribute more in tax than they use in services and pump a "staggering amount of money" into the economy.

Concerns about pressure on jobs were dismissed as likely to stem from prejudice. Pupils were encouraged to join leftist causes such as Amnesty International and campaign for Net Zero, described as an "important goal," with suggestions they petition local government and consider flying less or eating less meat.

This is the same pattern we've documented for months. Earlier exposés showed Soros-linked campaigners given direct access to shape a BBC children's show so it would "tap into children's media and directly impact framing of migration," and activist groups steering other BBC programming toward sympathetic migrant storylines.

The same machinery operates inside schools themselves. We have covered materials that train pupils to treat critics of mass migration as Nazis, government video games that warn children they are terrorists for questioning it, books that insist there is "plenty of room" for small-boat arrivals, and Green Party plans to push similar lines into the curriculum.

Former BBC television controller Danny Cohen called the Bitesize breaches "blatant" and said it was "no surprise the BBC has removed this material, even more so given it was targeted at children."

He demanded a transparent explanation to licence-fee payers of why it was allowed and what will stop it being repeated, describing it as "further evidence of ongoing failures of impartiality at the BBC where leaders continue to bury their heads in the sand."

Former Education Secretary Gavin Williamson described the episode as the mask slipping on the BBC's "rampant Left-wing political agenda" and compared the homework game to "something from a North Korean re-education camp."

Shadow Cabinet Office Secretary Alex Burghart noted that the BBC was set up "to inform, educate and entertain - not misinform, re-educate and brainwash."

A BBC spokesman said the corporation recognises the trust parents and teachers place in Bitesize, that all content must comply with editorial guidelines, and that the examples are under review. The corporation has insisted points were also available for training local people or closing borders, but that defence has not stopped the material being pulled.

This is not an isolated classroom resource. It is the educational arm of a broader effort that has already reshaped children's television and school materials. Licence-fee payers are funding the production of content that scores children for supporting policies their parents oppose at the ballot box, then quietly removes the evidence once it is exposed.

The review now under way will mean little unless the same scrutiny is applied to every other game, guide and programme that treats contested political positions as settled fact for the next generation.

Parents who want their children taught facts rather than scored for political compliance now have another clear example of why the corporation's impartiality claims collapse the moment they are tested against the material it actually puts in front of pupils.

https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden
Mon, 10/26/2026 - 07:20

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/bbc-caught-pushing-extreme-open-borders-propaganda-kids

Everyone Wants Nuclear Power, Nobody Wants Nuclear Stocks: Inside ...

2026-10-26T10:55:00Z

Everyone Wants Nuclear Power, Nobody Wants Nuclear Stocks: Inside The Great Uprate Rush

Everyone Wants Nuclear Power, Nobody Wants Nuclear Stocks: Inside The Great Uprate Rush

On Monday, X-energy (XE) signed its second Amazon-backed reactor project in the US, a 960MW, 12-unit plant on the site of a retired AEP coal plant in Indiana. The same day, its stock sat at $10.36, the bottom of its 52-week range and 71% below its high.

That, in one sentence, is the state of the nuclear renaissance in October 2026: the customers have never been bigger, and the shareholders have never been more nervous.

Regular readers know we have been tracking the AI-nuclear trade since before Microsoft agreed to restart Three Mile Island https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/nuclear-names-surge-after-three-mile-island-planned-restart-power-microsoft, and lately we have been fixated on the growing gap between the physical market and the tickers, first in "https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/nuclear-renaissance-disconnect-utilities-plan-big-while-stocks-lag"; (Sept 22) and then a week later in "https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/uranium-term-prices-hit-record-so-why-nuclear-getting-nuked"; Since then the gap has only widened. Goldman's clean-tech team led by Brian Lee put a number on it in its latest https://marketdesk.ai/standalone/XzYJ3jkHDuv (https://www.zerohedge.com/signup/professional-membership-year):

Nuclear equities materially underperformed the broader market over the past three months, with our nuclear coverage averaging a -21% return over the period compared to the S&P 500, which returned +3%. Similar to prior quarters, performance varied across the group, although weakness was broadly spread across both SMR and uranium-exposed names. In particular, OKLO declined 29%, the weakest performance in our coverage, which we attribute to continued risk-off sentiment toward advanced nuclear developers and limited near-term commercial catalysts.

https://assets.zerohedge.com/s3fs-public/inline-images/GS%20Nuclear%20Nuggets%20Ex13%20-%20Nuclear%20coverage%20vs%20S%26P%20500.pngAnd the shorts smell blood: NuScale (SMR) saw the largest jump in short interest, up 16% in a month, while Uranium Energy (UEC) saw some covering (-14%), which Goldman reads as "relatively more constructive positioning toward uranium-focused names." Translation: if you must own nuclear, own the rocks, not the PowerPoints.

https://assets.zerohedge.com/s3fs-public/inline-images/GS%20Nuclear%20Nuggets%20Ex14%20-%20Short%20interest%20change.pngAnd that was the good part. Goldman's data run to Oct 9. The week that followed was much worse.

Four Weeks, Nine Deals... And A Sell-The-News Puke

Start with what the buyers have done. Between Sep 22 and Oct 20, the hyperscalers and Washington signed, funded or floated at least nine US nuclear deals, from Google's uprates at Georgia Power to https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/amazon-secures-20-years-nuclear-power-constellation-goldman-sees-industry-wide-win with Constellation (CEG), the https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/vistra-line-4-billion-nuclear-loan-washingtons-lending-spree-continues and, the big one, https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/google-plugs-constellations-nuclear-reactors-pjms-bring-your-own-power-era-arrives, 890MW of which is new capacity squeezed out of 11 existing reactors.

https://assets.zerohedge.com/s3fs-public/inline-images/ZH%20-%20Nuclear%20deal%20tracker%20Sep-Oct%202026%20-%202026-10-22.pngThe deal flow surprised even the people paid to forecast it. Here is Scotiabank's utilities team (Andrew Weisel et al) in its latest https://marketdesk.ai/standalone/KHeXjvAqbXh (also https://www.zerohedge.com/signup/professional-membership-year), with a rare mea culpa:

For each of these data center announcements, we admit that we incorrectly expected a news flow drought until after midterm elections, making these updates seem like more positive proof points that demand for long-term nuclear and data-center contracts remains robust.

Scotia crudely estimates the Google deal alone could add "as much as $2/sh of EPS (+~10%)" for Constellation, and says the two contracts make CEG "the leading U.S. IPP by data center-contracted capacity." Taiwan's Yuanta went further, calling Google's multi-reactor deal the template for a "revaluation of existing nuclear power assets," and illustrating it with a chart it credits to, ahem, Zero Hedge.

https://assets.zerohedge.com/s3fs-public/inline-images/Yuanta%20Figure%201%20-%20Constellation%20tech%20power%20deals.pngSo how did the stock react to becoming Big Tech's nuclear landlord? Well, CEG traded above $300 on the Google headline on Oct 6. Two weeks later it was at $263, down 7.4% last week alone and 26.4% YTD, per JPMorgan's Jeremy Tonet, whose https://marketdesk.ai/standalone/mT8H8ItSrEH note offered the simplest explanation of all: on Wednesday, "our trading desk saw supply in CEG, with investors reducing exposure post contracting wins." Sell the news, buy... some story stock with momentum and an Div/0 PE ratio.

Part of the problem is that the easy megawatts are spoken for. Raymond James (J.R. Weston), raising its CEG target to $341, notes that the Amazon and Google agreements "have largely committed the ~1 GW of nuclear uprates within CEG's ~5-GW PJM Cycle 1 pipeline, leaving ~4 GW of gas, storage and other development opportunities," and that additional uprates "likely face longer interconnection timelines." The other part is that pricing on the new PPAs is undisclosed, and the market (as it so often does) has assumed the worst.

CIBC, which initiated on both CEG ($358 PT) and Talen (TLN, $499 PT) last week, thinks that's a mistake: in its view the market "still assigns insufficient value to CEG's contracting upside," while TLN's valuation "implies minimal upside from data centre deals." HSBC, launching coverage of 28 US utilities this week, rates all four IPPs (CEG, NRG, VST, TLN) a Buy. Echoing virtually every other sellside desk, then, the Street loves what the tape hates.

The Cheapest Nuclear Megawatt Is The One Already Built

If there is one trade the past four weeks clarified, it is the uprate. New nuclear remains brutally expensive and slow; squeezing 5-20% more out of a reactor that is already licensed, already staffed and already on the grid is neither. As Scotiabank puts it, "though new nuclear build remains challenging, we're impressed with recent nuclear uprate activity." The NRC lists ~30 expected uprate applications through 2032, totaling ~2.4GW, led by Constellation (12), Duke (5), Southern (4) and Vistra (4). And that data predates the Amazon, Google and DOE deals.

https://assets.zerohedge.com/s3fs-public/inline-images/Scotiabank%20-%20US%20power%20uprate%20applications%20through%202032.pngWe made the same point with numbers when the Google deal hit, when we https://x.com/zerohedge/status/2107485619853430931: gas is still the cheapest firm capacity on a $/kW basis, but the grid queue is now up to 4.5 years, while restarts and uprates sit on sites that are already connected.

https://assets.zerohedge.com/s3fs-public/inline-images/ZH%20tweet%20-%20power%20generation%20comps%20-%202026-10-06.pngUBS's Jon Windham lays out the full US pipeline in his https://marketdesk.ai/standalone/ClvlOliMJHY: 2,421MW of planned uprates against a 5,000MW target by 2030, another 2,255MW of restarts (Palisades, Crane/TMI-1, Duane Arnold), and some 14GW of large new build that, apart from VC Summer, still has an FID date of "TBD." Put differently, the US is about halfway to its uprate goal with four years to go, which is why every federal dollar and every hyperscaler check is now chasing the same few reactors.

https://assets.zerohedge.com/s3fs-public/inline-images/UBS%20Figure%206%20-%20US%20Nuclear%20Landscape.pngWhy are the owners of those reactors suddenly so valuable? HSBC's Meike Becker answers in one sentence, in the bank's 210-page https://marketdesk.ai/standalone/vmbCPZIYKH2:

Between nuclear tax credits, which provide an inflation adjusted floor at c45USD/MWh and rising, the explosion of capacity payments in PJM, which provide an uplift of c14-15USD/MWh to market prices, rising PJM forward prices of 60+USD/MWh and now long-term PPAs, the profitability of US nuclear has dramatically increased and been derisked.

HSBC models Constellation's implied nuclear price rising from the mid-$40s/MWh in 2022-24 to the mid-$80s by 2029/30, assuming 75% of the fleet is contracted by 2032 at "c75+USD/MWh for existing assets and higher for extensions." The catch, as HSBC flags, is that the PTC is only guaranteed through 2032, and "affordability pressure and regulation" could slow contracting.

https://assets.zerohedge.com/s3fs-public/inline-images/HSBC%20-%20Constellation%20implied%20nuclear%20price.pngA word of caution on the bigger picture: BloombergNEF's latest outlook (via Needham) sees just 13.7GW of US nuclear additions through 2036, mostly restarts, uprates and a handful of conventional projects, versus as much as 67.8GW of new gas through 2030. In other words, nuclear wins the contracts, gas wins the volume, at least for this decade.

SMRs: Amazon's Money, Shareholders' Problem

Which brings us back to X-energy, and to the anchor of this week's flow, BTIG's https://marketdesk.ai/standalone/Cg9AiNAwwdM (Greg Lewis and team):

AEP signed a joint development agreement with X-energy to evaluate feasibility of a ~960MW nuclear energy project in Indiana. The project is backed by an Amazon funding agreement, and AMZN plans to enter a long-term PPA if the project reaches positive FID. Located at a former coal plant, XE would initially install 12 SMRs (~80MW each), part of a broader agreement with AMZN to add over 5GW of nuclear capacity to the US grid by 2039.

Note the "if." UBS calls the AEP deal "a significant positive" and reminds us that Amazon owned ~23% of XE's Class A shares as of June 30, which helps explain who keeps signing XE's customer agreements. JPMorgan says the deal delivers on the 1GW announcement management promised on its 2Q call, but wants "firm contracted offtake, financing structure, capex, and licensing timeline" before investor confidence returns. Near term, UBS says, the focus stays on XE's Seadrift project in Texas, expected to receive construction approval in early 2027. Meanwhile XE, which https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/senior-reactor-developer-x-energy-files-ipo and listed in April, now trades at a $4.1 billion market cap, give or take a few Amazon PPAs.

Then there is Deep Fission (FISN), which plans to drop reactors a mile down a borehole. BTIG notes it firmed up a master energy purchase agreement with the Great Plains Development Authority for a 150MW first phase in Kansas, targeting COD in 3Q28 and up to ~2GW later. Canaccord's George Gianarikas, who rates it a Buy, read the fine print in his https://marketdesk.ai/standalone/Cg9AiNAwwdM note: the agreement "binds Deep Fission to supply power once licensed and operating, while the GPDA has no minimum purchase obligation." And the cash: ~$72 million at the end of 3Q, ~$40 million by year-end, overhead of ~$3 million a month and, per management, "about $90 million yet to get to spent" on the pilot. Canaccord expects "the company to need additional capital." So do we. The analyst's defense of the sector is worth quoting, if only for the prose:

In this nuclear arena, perfection is a ghost. Every contender bears its own vulnerability.

The market's verdict was less poetic. Needham's https://marketdesk.ai/standalone/3yUP2WCWhIY shows its nuclear reactor basket fell 19.2% in the week to Oct 16, the worst subsector in its coverage, and is now down 50.6% over six months and 74.6% over twelve. The fuel-cycle basket is down 76.3% over a year.

https://assets.zerohedge.com/s3fs-public/inline-images/ZH%20-%20Nuclear%20subsector%20returns%20by%20window%20-%202026-10-22.pngNeedham's diagnosis: "We view the weakness primarily as a repricing of financing and execution risk rather than deteriorating power demand," with data center capex "increasingly being underwritten above $13MM/MW" and dilutive converts (CIFR's surprise $850 million) setting the tone. Oklo (OKLO), at $27.97, is now 84% below its 52-week high; NANO Nuclear (NNE) is 74% below; Centrus (LEU) 72% (more on that in the final chart below).

And the issuance pipeline isn't closed. Buried in the Nuclear Nuggets disclosure appendix: Goldman "is acting as a manager or co-manager of a pending underwriting" for Oklo (ironically, in the same note in which it cut its Oklo price target to $49 from $57).

It isn't all dilution and despair. Goldman's SMR tracker logged real licensing progress: the NRC issued the first US construction permit for a BWRX-300 at TVA's Clinch River site (Sep 30), Holtec filed its Preliminary Safety Analysis Report for two SMR-300s at Palisades, and Blue Energy filed its first construction permit application. On the other side of the ledger, Bechtel will step away as EPC contractor on TerraPower's Natrium project after the current phase (https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/bechtel-splits-terrapower-holtec-postpones-ipo when it hit), a reminder that the hardest part of nuclear is still pouring the concrete. Reuters reported this week that SMR developers are scrambling to lock in EPC partners precisely because, as the Breakthrough Institute's Adam Stein put it, most "https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/small-reactor-developers-tie-epc-partners-de-risk-roll-out--reeii-2026-10-20/.";

Indiana, meanwhile, is turning into the nuclear capital of the Midwest, at least on paper. Besides XE/AEP, AtkinsRéalis signed an MOU with the state and Hoosier Energy for up to eight CANDU reactors, or 6GW, which JPMorgan values at "~$12-24B." CIBC's Krista Friesen calls it a "modest positive," though "highly preliminary, with financing, offtake arrangements, and development timelines yet to be established," and "would not anticipate a near-term addition to backlog." And The Nuclear Company floated a 6.6GW, six-reactor "Prosperity One" campus in Kentucky, which so far consists of a site. Big numbers, small commitments.

Uranium: A Record Term Price On The Thinnest Volume Since 2009

The fuel market is telling the same story in miniature. Per Goldman, spot U3O8 hovered around $90/lb through September and into October, while the long-term price held at a record $96/lb. But look at the volume:

Despite broadly bullish sentiment following the WNA Symposium and expectations for stronger utility demand, spot market activity remained subdued, with September volumes falling to their lowest monthly level since December 2009.

https://assets.zerohedge.com/s3fs-public/inline-images/GS%20Nuclear%20Nuggets%20Ex6%20-%20Spot%20and%20term%20uranium.pngThe Sprott Physical Uranium Trust, the marginal spot buyer of the last cycle, "was absent from the market in September," and Goldman estimates 2026 term volumes are still tracking below the five-year average. A record price that nobody trades looks a lot like a standoff.

https://assets.zerohedge.com/s3fs-public/inline-images/GS%20Nuclear%20Nuggets%20Ex7%20-%20Spot%20volumes.pngWhich is what we were getting at when the Constellation news hit:

in light of today's Constellation news, a reminder on the Uranium market.
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) https://x.com/zerohedge/status/2107501984714768818?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
Goldman's commodity grid shows the rest of the chain flat to softer on the month, with spot conversion down 3% (and 6% over three months), even as SWU is up 287% over five years.

https://assets.zerohedge.com/s3fs-public/inline-images/GS%20Nuclear%20Nuggets%20Ex9%20-%20Uranium%20commodity%20performance.pngSpeaking of conversion: Yuanta singled out Solstice (SOLS), "the only nuclear fuel conversion facility in the US," as the name that "merits attention." Activist Starboard apparently agrees. Jeff Smith https://www.reuters.com/legal/transactional/starboards-smith-unveils-stake-solstice-presses-improvements-2026-10-20/, calling the stock "stupid cheap" and urging management to focus on its refrigerants and nuclear businesses. When the activists show up, the bottom is either close or, well, still a ways off.

Meanwhile, The Rest Of The World Just Builds

While US investors agonize over financing, the rest of the world keeps pouring concrete, and mostly in one country. Of the ~80 reactors under construction globally, 38 are in China, against eight in India and seven in Russia. All five 2026 grid connections on Goldman's list (most recently Tianwan-7 on Oct 8) are Chinese, as are half of the ten construction starts.

The phase-out crowd, meanwhile, is in full retreat. Barclays' sustainable investing team, in its https://marketdesk.ai/standalone/Idp12Zvzeo2 spotlight, counts the reversals:

- Italy's Senate approved a return to nuclear nearly 40 years after the ban,

- Switzerland's parliament lifted its ban on new plants (referendum pending in 2027),

- Belgium moved toward a state takeover of Engie's fleet,

- Taiwan cleared Taipower's restart plan for Maanshan, which could restart as soon as 2028.
Goldman adds that the Dutch scrapped Borssele's 2033 shutdown date, paving the way for operations to 2054. Barclays' conclusion: "policy risk is continuing to ease for nuclear developers." Japan, too, is back, as we noted last month:

How it's done: This is TEPCO’s Kashiwazaki-Kariwa nuclear power station in Niigata. The seven-unit site has 8.2GW of capacity, making it the world's largest power plant. Unit 6 entered commercial operation on 16 April 2026, returning a 1.36GW Advanced Boiling Water Reactor to service and marking TEPCO’s first commercial nuclear operation since Fukushima. Expect a SoftBank/Oracle/OpenAI data center in its vicinity in the next few months.
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) https://x.com/zerohedge/status/2105133743639769241?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
Then there are the newcomers. BTIG flags that the Philippines, which has never operated a reactor (its Bataan plant has sat dormant since the 1980s), now targets ~1.2GW of nuclear by 2032, ~2.4GW by 2035 and ~4.8GW by 2050, mostly via SMRs; Vietnam recently approved a ~2.4GW plant for the early 2030s. The EU's Innovation Fund, in its latest €3.4 billion round, made its first-ever SMR award, to Calogena's 30MWt heat-only pilot in France. As BTIG puts it, "we expect the growing global emphasis on energy security and soaring energy demand (think AI data centers) will motivate more countries to look to nuclear as a stable source of power."

One late twist: Reuters https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/hungary-considers-replacing-russias-rosatom-nuclear-project-2026-10-21/ that Hungary's new Magyar government is considering replacing Rosatom as main contractor on the Paks II expansion, whose first concrete was poured in February (it is on Goldman's 2026 construction-start list above). The project, originally estimated at €12.5 billion, has already cost Hungary more than €2 billion. Rosatom says it has received "no formal notification." Expect that one to end in court, much like Finland's.

Midterms, Money And The Megawatts That Already Exist

Which leaves the one variable no PPA can hedge: Washington. With the midterms on Nov 3, Samsung Securities' energy team (in its https://marketdesk.ai/standalone/pdxZsgd5JqQ expects the outcome to "influence the pace of nuclear power policy implementation rather than its strategic direction," since the core supports, from the 45U tax credit to the Nuclear Fuel Security Act and the ADVANCE Act, all passed with bipartisan votes. The soft spots are the executive-order initiatives: the $17.5 billion of conditional DOE loans for long-lead AP1000 components (seven sites signed LOIs, none disclosed) and the NRC overhaul, where Democrats have already questioned the departure of 400 NRC technical staff. A Democratic House "can conduct investigations, hold hearings, issue subpoenas," which is about what we expected when we wrote that data centers and nuclear would be https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/if-dems-win-house-data-centers-nuclear-venezuela-oil-deal-likely-targets.

Demand, for its part, keeps getting revised up. HSBC just raised its US data center demand forecast by 80% to ~900TWh in 2030, and JPMorgan notes SpaceX's "blue sky" scenario of adding 20GW of incremental power next year, with "high confidence in at least 10 GW." UBS sums up the hyperscaler side: their continued support of new nuclear "highlights the pace at which demand for clean energy is outstripping available supply."

So what explains the puke? Our take is that the market is finally drawing the line Goldman's numbers hint at. On one side are the owners of licensed, grid-connected reactors (Constellation, Vistra, Talen), whose megawatts are being bid up by the richest companies on earth with a federal tax floor underneath. On the other are the pre-revenue developers, who still need several more rounds of capital (and underwriters' fees) before the first electron, and whose "customers" in some cases have no minimum purchase obligation. The first group is probably oversold. The second has, in all likelihood, more dilution ahead before it bottoms.

We remain long-term believers that modular reactors, ideally deployed behind the meter, are the endgame for AI power. But between now and 2030, the cheapest, fastest nuclear megawatt is the one that already exists, while waiting for the ones that don't exist yet has been a costly exercise for shareholders:

https://assets.zerohedge.com/s3fs-public/inline-images/ZH%20-%20Nuclear%20stocks%20vs%2052-week%20high%20-%202026-10-22.pngMuch more in the full Goldman "https://marketdesk.ai/standalone/XzYJ3jkHDuv"; and the BTIG "https://marketdesk.ai/standalone/Cg9AiNAwwdM";, both available to https://www.zerohedge.com/signup/professional-membership-year, along with the Scotiabank, UBS, JPMorgan, HSBC, Needham, Raymond James, CIBC, Canaccord, Barclays, Samsung and Yuanta notes cited above, https://marketdesk.ai/library/browse/ULrrIRPmfih.

https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden
Mon, 10/26/2026 - 06:55

https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/everyone-wants-nuclear-power-nobody-wants-nuclear-stocks-inside-great-uprate-rush

Feds Probe Suspicious White Powder Envelopes Sent To Election ...

2026-10-26T10:30:00Z

Feds Probe Suspicious White Powder Envelopes Sent To Election Offices

Feds Probe Suspicious White Powder Envelopes Sent To Election Offices

https://www.theepochtimes.com/us/feds-probe-suspicious-white-powder-envelopes-sent-to-election-offices-6108395?utm_source=partner&utm_campaign=ZeroHedge,

Letters containing suspicious powder were mailed to multiple locations across the United States, including election offices, federal officials said.

The J. Edgar Hoover FBI building in Washington on March 11, 2026. Madalina Kilroy/The Epoch TimesSuspicious substances have been found in mail sent to media organizations, public and private polling companies, secretaries of state and related election offices, and various election-related entities, the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) said in an alert on Friday.

The agency said it was investigating the incidents together with the United States Postal Inspection Service.

To date, no hazardous material has been identified, the FBI said, adding that law enforcement officials were working to intercept any further letters.

Staff in election offices in Oklahoma and Louisiana recently discovered suspicious powder in envelopes, triggering an evacuation of offices, the office of Connecticut Secretary of the State said last week.

The FBI later informed the Connecticut office that it was the target of one of the letters, which had been intercepted by federal authorities.

The FBI told The Epoch Times in mid-October that "a series of suspicious mailings" had been sent to https://www.theepochtimes.com/us/federal-authorities-investigate-suspicious-letters-white-powder-sent-to-election-officials-6104397?utm_source=partner&utm_campaign=ZeroHedge nationwide, including secretary of state offices and related election offices.

The mailings were allegedly sent as state election offices were busy preparing for mid-term elections and mailing out ballots.

A staff member at the Arizona Department of State opened an envelope with white powder, leading to the evacuation of the office, Adrian Fontes, Arizona secretary of state, said in mid-October. The material and the individuals exposed to the substance were isolated.

"This is a sobering moment that highlights the reality of election administration in this country today," he said at the time.

Ohio Secretary of State Frank LaRose confirmed in mid-October that his office had been an intended recipient of one of the mailings, but the letter was intercepted by federal investigators.

Mississippi Secretary of State Michael Watson's office was also an intended target of the mailings, according to his spokeswoman Liz Jonson.

The Wisconsin Elections Commission said it received an envelope with white powder, according to a statement, adding that tests concluded that it was not hazardous.

Individuals tasked with handling mail at election-related or similar locations must have personal protective equipment to help protect them from exposure to potential hazards, according to the FBI alert. Such equipment includes masks, aprons, and nitrile gloves.

Offices that handle mail must also establish procedures to respond to potentially hazardous materials exposure, with all staff members trained on these processes, the FBI said.

People who come into contact with an unknown substance through the mail should avoid taking any action that can result in the powder becoming airborne, the agency advised. In addition, people must leave the room, isolate the area, and call for emergency medical services and law enforcement.

In addition to the risks posed by mailed powder substances, individuals linked to elections can also be threatened, the FBI said in an October alert, adding that it takes all threats of violence targeting election workers seriously.

Jill McLaughlin contributed to this report.

https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden
Mon, 10/26/2026 - 06:30

https://www.zerohedge.com/political/feds-probe-suspicious-white-powder-envelopes-sent-election-offices

Disappearing Hurricanes Leave Disappointed Scientists Without ...

2026-10-26T09:00:00Z

Disappearing Hurricanes Leave Disappointed Scientists Without Fuel For Climate Alarm

Disappearing Hurricanes Leave Disappointed Scientists Without Fuel For Climate Alarm

https://dailysceptic.org/2026/10/21/disappearing-hurricanes-leave-disappointed-scientists-without-fuel-for-climate-alarm/,

Emergency explanations have had to be rushed to the climate catastrophizing front following the shocking news that hurricanes in the North Atlantic have largely disappeared this year.

Until recently the area was heading for a double bagel - zero hurricanes with zero major hurricanes, although a late storm has upset a score line never before seen in the historical record. As with all 'extreme' outlier weather events, humans must be responsible, at least that has been the mainstream reaction for around 30 years (we have the computer models to prove it). But wait, not on this occasion. Simon King from the BBC states that a natural occurring El Niño is the "https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/articles/cwgkvyyg8115o";.

Wot, no humans altering the climate? Surely a first for the BBC. In fact, lead weather presenter King is on the right track in that the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a transporter of heat from the Pacific Ocean around the world, can reduce wind shear and supress storm activity. But activity is complex in the chaotic, non-linear, largely unmeasurable atmosphere. Such a simple explanation didn't work well in 2023 when another strong El Niño occurred at a time when there was a long-term-average-busting hurricane season with seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes. Then the narrative-driven media was jammed packed with possible anthropogenic causes.

Long experience of being fed climate claptrap means we must be intrigued when 'natural' reasons are suddenly being used to explain the inevitable weather outliers that run the danger of casting doubt on the pseudoscience backing the Net Zero fantasy. While such natural explanations are welcome, indeed almost always highly relevant, they are curiously missing from most useful idiot mainstream climate messaging.

In 2018, Oliver Milman of the Guardian gave us the standard climate slop on extreme storms when he reported: "Hurricane rainfall could increase by a third and wind speeds boosted by up to 25 knots if https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/nov/14/climate-change-hurricanes-study-global-warming.";

Almost invariably, natural causes for all weather or weather-related events are either missing or entirely lost in proselytizing action. For coral showing five years of record growth on the Great Barrier Reef, the largest coral ecosystem in the world - almost no interest in the mainstream media.

Global burned areas in the annual fire season to February 2026 were https://essd.copernicus.org/preprints/essd-2026-587/ on the recent 20-year average - who cares when there is a much better story about Bordeaux claret having a slightly smoky taste this year due to a number of local fires indicative of Fireball Earth. Don't believe that such a story could appear in the biased press - I give you Esme Stallard's 2023 https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-67078674: 'Climate change could make beer taste worse.'

A stable Greenland ice sheet this year, maybe a small increase - get in the bin. Surely this is a good news story for all except perhaps makers of scuba diving equipment selling kit for all those grandchildren who are going to be under water later in the century. A natural explanation, in case it never gets reported, is that the northern 2026 summer jet stream kept high pressure over the UK and Europe, and all the low pressure-induced rain seems to have fallen as snow during a colder Greenland season. In addition, cyclical factors seem to be at play since ice loss in Greenland has been falling for a number of years anyway.

Much of this is caused by, or is called, weather. Explaining that bad or extreme weather is as much a natural event as all other types does not fit the predetermined narrative that drives the population panic required for the hard Left Net Zero project. Just 'look out of the window' and complex atmospheric science can be easily understood by blaming all the crap weather on humans using hydrocarbons. Works every time when there are loads of convenient hurricanes - less well when the wind is stilled and the ocean is as calm as a mill pond.

In fact, the constant suggestion that human-caused climate change will lead to more severe tropical hurricanes is not borne out by scientific data. Leaving aside the fact that hurricanes in number and strength have shown little noticeable change for at least a century, the idea that warmer ocean waters caused by higher carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere are stoking up the storms is highly contentious. In 2023, the tropical Atlantic featured record surface temperatures but a powerful El Niño failed to make much impression on the high number of storms. Ocean temperatures this year were a little cooler but still remained at the third highest level recorded. Did a marginal drop in temperature affect the dramatic turnaround in hurricane numbers? Maybe, maybe not, but it might be an idea to stay off blaming it on humans until more definite answers are found.

In fact, recent scientific evidence suggests that the link between ENSO and tropical storms has https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2025GL116968. Last year, a group of US-based Earth scientists found that. in the Atlantic, the link was weak in the 1960s-1970s, strong from the 1980s to early 2000s and a little weaker since then. Other factors determining hurricanes formations were noted to be at play, including higher levels of mid-troposphere humidity and differing phases of important ocean currents.

https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden
Mon, 10/26/2026 - 05:00

https://www.zerohedge.com/weather/disappearing-hurricanes-leave-disappointed-scientists-without-fuel-climate-alarm

UBS Maps Super El Nino's Energy Impact And 'Black ...

2026-10-26T08:15:00Z

UBS Maps Super El Nino's Energy Impact And 'Black Swan' Winter Weather Risks

UBS Maps Super El Nino's Energy Impact And 'Black Swan' Winter Weather Risks

We extensively covered the unusually strong El Niño, its weather impacts by region, and the risks this adverse weather poses to crop production and global food inflation.

Here's what this year's El Niño looks like next to the three strongest that came before it. What stands out to you? https://t.co/owJvWsOvZl
— Ben Noll (@BenNollWeather) https://x.com/BenNollWeather/status/2106406419755110905?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
UBS's energy team hosted a call Tuesday with meteorologist James Block to assess El Niño impacts for weather markets. The discussion comes amid a global refining crisis and continued disruptions to Strait of Hormuz energy flows, with European natural gas futures https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/eu-natgas-tops-2022-highs-goldman-warns-prices-could-rally-150-euros per megawatt-hour this week.

Block offered some relief to energy consumers as the Northern Hemisphere approaches winter. He expressed high confidence that warmer-than-normal conditions will be present across several major energy-demand regions, including the northern US, Europe and parts of Asia. That could moderate heating demand as energy supplies, such as heating oil, remain tight.

Above-average temperatures, however, would not eliminate the risk of one or two cold blasts. Block warned of the potential for "black swan" events, including snowstorms and ice storms. In the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast, a powerful nor'easter coinciding with an Arctic cold outbreak could blanket major cities with heavy snow, even within a mild winter.

Here are the key takeaways from the discussion:

Strongest El Niño in more than 75 years

According to the expert, the current El Niño is unequivocally the strongest observed since modern sea surface temperature monitoring began in the 1950s. A "Super El Niño" is typically characterized by Pacific Ocean temperatures exceeding normal levels by more than 3°C, and the expert believes that anomalies could surpass 3.5°C this season. The event is expected to peak in January before gradually weakening, with conditions likely returning to normal by May 2027. While Super El Niño events generally result in milder winter weather, they can also generate so-called "black swan" weather events, including severe snowstorms and ice storms. Should such episodes occur, the expert believes they are most likely between late January and early February and would probably be short-lived, lasting between one and two weeks. Overall, however, the implication for energy markets is lower-than-average heating-related demand for this winter.

Regional outlooks

The impact from El Niño varies significantly by region. In the United States, the expert expects temperatures across the Northern Plains, Northeast and parts of Canada to average 1.5°C to 3°C above normal. In contrast, the Southern Tier is expected to experience cooler-than-average conditions. Texas, in particular, is likely to see colder and wetter weather than normal, although the probability of an extreme freeze event remains lower than in a typical winter. For Europe, the signal is less pronounced than in North America but still points towards a relatively mild season. The expert expects temperatures across Southern and Central Europe to average approximately 0.5°C to 1.5°C above normal. The impact is likely to be smaller in Northern Europe, although conditions are still expected to trend warmer than average overall. In Asia, confidence is highest for above-normal temperatures in India and Japan. Forecast signals for China are less robust, as weather patterns there are influenced more heavily by continental effects and local terrain. This is particularly relevant because energy demand is concentrated in northern China, where the warming signal appears weaker.

Beyond temperature: hurricanes, wind and precipitation

The discussion also covered the outlook for the remainder of the hurricane season, as well as expected wind and precipitation patterns. The expert does not anticipate any additional storms affecting the Gulf and highlighted the unusually quiet hurricane season to date, which has produced only one significant storm. Wind conditions in the United States are expected to benefit from a more southerly storm track, leading to stronger wind speeds, particularly in key wind-power generation regions. The outlook for Europe is less certain. On precipitation, the southern United States is expected to experience a wetter and stormier pattern, resulting in higher rainfall and improved water availability. Europe, by contrast, is expected to be both warmer and drier than average.

US Weather Pattern For El Niño & La Niña Winter

Global El Niño Weather Pattern

Related:

- https://www.zerohedge.com/weather/noaa-winter-outlook-record-el-nino-points-wetter-south-warmer-north
So far, El Niño-related increases in vertical wind shear have helped suppress Atlantic tropical cyclone development, with no tropical development or storms hitting the US East Coast.

https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden
Mon, 10/26/2026 - 04:15

https://www.zerohedge.com/weather/ubs-maps-super-el-ninos-energy-impact-and-black-swan-winter-weather-risks

Former UK Prime Minister Listed As 'Core Participant' In ...

2026-10-26T07:30:00Z

Former UK Prime Minister Listed As 'Core Participant' In Grooming Gang Inquiry

Former UK Prime Minister Listed As 'Core Participant' In Grooming Gang Inquiry

https://pjmedia.com/robert-spencer/2026/10/25/former-uk-prime-minister-listed-as-core-participant-in-grooming-gang-inquiry-n4958656,

The Muslim grooming gang scandal in Britain just keeps getting larger and more bizarre. Hundreds of thousands of British girls were victimized, and to add insult to injury, British police and other officials often turned a blind eye to their suffering, with their eyes more on political calculations than on the well-being of the people they were supposed to be protecting and serving. In the latest in a long series of strange turns of events, a former British prime minister has been named as a "core participant" in upcoming inquiries.

Peter Nicholls/Pool Photo via APIt's not actually hard to imagine that the complicity in this ever-spiraling scandal goes right to the top. The lives of as many as https://rapeganginquiry.co.uk/ British girls were destroyed at the hands of these gangs, and it's hard to imagine being able to commit crimes on that scale without drawing the attention of reasonably competent authorities. And so GB News https://www.gbnews.com/politics/grooming-gangs-inquiry-keir-starmer-summoned Thursday that "Sir https://pjmedia.com/tags/keir-starmer will be summoned to give evidence to the national grooming gangs inquiry." The far-left Starmer, who was prime minister from July 2024 to July 2026, "has been listed as a core participant. The inquiry will commence its National Accountability Hearings in London in December and January."

There is a great deal for the inquiry to look into. In the city of Rotherham, where 1,400 girls became victims of the Muslim rape gangs, a report that Rotherham Borough Council commissioned https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-south-yorkshire-28939089 that "children as young as 11" were "raped by multiple perpetrators, abducted, trafficked to other cities in England, beaten and intimidated." Children were "doused in petrol and threatened with being set alight, threatened with guns, made to witness brutally violent rapes and threatened they would be next if they told anyone."

The report noted, meanwhile, that Rotherham police were not at all inclined to rush to the aid of the victims. Instead, they "regarded many child victims with contempt." This was because when they looked at them, they saw professional and possibly even personal ruin. "Several staff described their nervousness about identifying the ethnic origins of perpetrators for fear of being thought as racist; others remembered clear direction from their managers not to do so." Staff members spoke about how hard it was to deal with matters that were "taboo," and so they ended up "ignoring a politically inconvenient truth" as they believed that dealing with it could harm "community cohesion." And, of course, there was the ever-present "fear of being thought racist."

Keir Starmer may have had the same fear. For five years, as the Muslim rape gangs marauded all over the country, from 2008 to 2013, Starmer was director of public prosecutions. In those five years, the future prime minister had many chances to prosecute rape gang members, and yet he did not do so. Nor did he become any kind of spokesman for the victims in the intervening years.

As far back as 2014, just days after the Rotherham report was released, journalist Sean Thomas wrote in the Telegraph, in an article that has since been removed: "We don't need to rehearse the facts. We've all read them, and reeled away in horror. The interesting question is how and why would any country allow the racialised gang-rape of its own daughters?"

Then Thomas answered his own question: "Why? Because too many in that country, especially on the Left, most especially in the Labour Party, despise their own ordinary people: the white working classes."

Thomas's assessment was correct. The whole thing was a product of the cultural self-hatred that the left has worked so assiduously to instill in the masses on both sides of the Atlantic. That was likely to have been one reason why ordinary police officers were so afraid to incur charges of "racism" and "Islamophobia" by acting decisively against the rape gangs. They had been carefully and comprehensively indoctrinated with the idea that white Britons were fundamentally racist, and that this was one of the worst, if not the very worst, thing that someone could be. When confronted with the duty of apprehending criminals who were overwhelmingly members of a prominent racial minority, these officials could all too clearly see the prospect of the end of their careers and public disgrace.

https://pjmedia.com/chris-queen/2026/09/01/keir-starmers-exit-from-parliament-makes-his-mockery-of-rishi-sunak-look-even-worse-n4956782 was one of the leftist elites who worked to instill that self-hatred. It's good that he will have to participate in this inquiry, although his comrades will likely protect him from any legal consequences of his criminal negligence. That's how these things work. Still, it is good to see that at least some people realize that in Britain, the rot started at the top.

https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden
Mon, 10/26/2026 - 03:30

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/former-uk-prime-minister-listed-core-participant-grooming-gang-inquiry

China Emits 2.7 Times As Much Greenhouse Gas As America, New EU ...

2026-10-26T06:45:00Z

China Emits 2.7 Times As Much Greenhouse Gas As America, New EU Data Show

China Emits 2.7 Times As Much Greenhouse Gas As America, New EU Data Show

China emitted 15,981 million metric tons of greenhouse gases in 2025, about 30% of the world's total and 2.7 times the United States, according to the European Commission's https://edgar.jrc.ec.europa.eu/report_2026 database. The U.S. ranked second at 6,018 million tons (11.4%), followed by India (4,508 million, 8.5%), Russia (2,574 million, 4.9%) and Indonesia (1,359 million, 2.6%).

The five largest emitters account for nearly 58% of the global total. The shares exclude international aviation and shipping.

Emissions rose again overall. https://www.argusmedia.com/en/news-and-insights/latest-market-news/2875017-global-ghg-emissions-reached-fresh-high-in-2025-report reports that EDGAR puts global emissions at a record of about 55 billion tons of CO2 equivalent in 2025, up 0.9%, with U.S. emissions up 2.2%, China's up 0.1% and India's down 0.2%.

Click for full sizeAs https://www.visualcapitalist.com/ranked-global-emissions-by-country-in-2025/ explains further,

Population helps explain emissions totals, but energy consumption and industrial activity also play major roles.

Saudi Arabia, for example, produces more greenhouse gases than Pakistan despite having a much smaller population. Australia also generates more than twice Bangladesh's emissions, even though its population is less than one-sixth as large.

These differences reflect factors such as fossil fuel dependence, energy-intensive industries, and each country's https://www.visualcapitalist.com/energy-mix-of-worlds-10-largest-economies/.

Where Emissions Are Starting to Fall

Despite their large shares of global emissions, some of the world's biggest emitters are beginning to see declines.

In 2025, China's energy-related CO₂ emissions fell by around https://www.iea.org/reports/global-energy-review-2026/co2-emissions, helped by expanding renewable and nuclear power generation. India's energy-related CO₂ emissions also declined in 2025, helped by renewable power growth and cooler weather.

Europe has seen more sustained reductions. Emissions in Italy, Germany, and the UK have fallen by https://www.visualcapitalist.com/ranked-where-emissions-are-rising-and-falling/ over the past decade. Across the EU, greenhouse gas emissions have declined 40% since 1990, even as its economy grew by more than 70%.

These trends highlight how emissions can decline even as economies continue to grow, although global emissions remain heavily concentrated among a handful of countries.

https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden
Mon, 10/26/2026 - 02:45

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/china-emits-27-times-much-greenhouse-gas-america-new-eu-data-show

Turkey Begins Ratifying Mecca Defense Pact With Saudi Arabia And ...

2026-10-26T06:00:00Z

Turkey Begins Ratifying Mecca Defense Pact With Saudi Arabia And Pakistan

Turkey Begins Ratifying Mecca Defense Pact With Saudi Arabia And Pakistan

https://www.theepochtimes.com/world/what-to-know-about-the-mecca-joint-defense-agreement-6108031?utm_source=partner&utm_campaign=ZeroHedge,

Turkey has begun ratifying the Mecca Joint Defense Agreement, a new pact signed with Saudi Arabia and Pakistan. The agreement has drawn increased attention since it was signed in August.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan (L), Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (C), and Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif (R) in Mecca, Saudi Arabia, on Aug. 7, 2026. Saudi Press Agency via APPresident Donald Trump https://www.theepochtimes.com/world/trump-hails-new-defense-pact-between-turkey-saudi-arabia-pakistan-6075977?utm_source=partner&utm_campaign=ZeroHedge the pact as a step toward greater regional security, while recent Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia have put renewed focus on how the alliance could operate in practice.

Saudi Arabia is the Gulf's largest military https://www.theepochtimes.com/world/mecca-defense-pact-not-aimed-at-iran-erdogan-6094910?utm_source=partner&utm_campaign=ZeroHedge, Turkey has NATO's second-largest army after the United States, and Pakistan is the world's only nuclear-armed Muslim-majority nation.

The agreement commits the three countries to closer military cooperation and includes a collective defense clause under which an armed attack on one member would be treated as an attack on all.

Here's what the agreement says, how it would work, and what could happen next.

Where the Agreement Stands

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, and Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif signed the agreement in the Saudi holy city of Mecca.

It aims to strengthen military and security cooperation among the three countries and is based on the principles of the U.N. Charter, respect for sovereignty, territorial integrity, and non-interference in each other's domestic affairs.

Turkey is the first of the three countries to publicly begin ratifying the agreement. Parliamentary records show the treaty was formally submitted to Turkish lawmakers on Oct. 21.

Turkish Parliament Speaker Numan Kurtulmus said on Oct. 22 that the relevant parliamentary committee will consider the treaty first, then submit it to the General Assembly for debate and a vote. If approved, it will become law.

Pakistan has not sought parliamentary approval, and Saudi Arabia has not announced a separate ratification process. Despite this, officials from both countries have already participated in meetings held under the new defense pact.

What's in the Agreement?

The treaty contains 16 articles covering defense, security, intelligence sharing, military cooperation, and defense industry collaboration.

The agreement's main provision is its collective defense clause.

It says that if one of the three countries comes under an external armed attack, the others will treat it as an attack on all of them and provide assistance.

However, the treaty does not require the same response every time. Instead, the three governments would decide together what kind of support is needed based on the situation.

That support could include military assistance, intelligence, logistics, or other resources.

The three countries also agree to work together on defense technology, research, innovation, and joint production of military equipment. They also commit to sharing intelligence through secure channels and providing logistical support, such as ammunition, fuel, spare parts, and other military supplies, when needed.

Why Does It Matter?

The pact comes during a period of heightened tensions in the Middle East following the Iran conflict and amid Iran-backed Houthi https://www.theepochtimes.com/world/yemens-houthis-attack-saudi-refinery-after-defense-pact-with-turkey-pakistan-6073071?utm_source=partner&utm_campaign=ZeroHedge on Saudi Arabia.

Pakistani and Turkish officials have condemned the Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia.

Last month, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan https://www.theepochtimes.com/world/turkey-backs-saudi-arabia-under-mecca-alliance-amid-ongoing-houthi-attacks-6092775?utm_source=partner&utm_campaign=ZeroHedge Turkish broadcaster NTV that Ankara was ready to provide Saudi Arabia with technical military assistance under the Mecca agreement if the kingdom requests it.

At the same time, Ankara maintains that the Mecca agreement is not directed against Iran, Israel, or any other country.

For Pakistan, the Mecca Agreement builds on existing military ties with Riyadh.

Earlier this year, Saudi Arabia rolled over more than $1.2 billion in oil import https://www.theepochtimes.com/world/saudi-arabia-nuclear-armed-pakistan-sign-mutual-defense-pact-5916861?utm_source=partner&utm_campaign=ZeroHedge for Pakistan, part of a series of bailouts and deferred payment facilities that have propped up Pakistan's economy.

The two countries also signed a separate mutual defense agreement in 2025, pledging to come to each other's aid if either is attacked.

How Will It Work?

The agreement creates a Strategic Political and Defense Committee to oversee the alliance.

The committee will include the foreign ministers, defense ministers, and military chiefs of the three countries. It will meet twice a year, with meetings rotating between Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Pakistan.

The three countries' leaders may also meet annually if needed, and a permanent secretariat will be based in Saudi Arabia.

On Oct. 5, officials from Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Pakistan met in Riyadh to discuss security threats facing Saudi Arabia. They appointed retired Pakistani Lieutenant General Nauman Mahmood as the alliance's first secretary-general for a three-year term.

The agreement also allows the alliance to expand. Last month, Kurtulmus said it could eventually include other Muslim countries, including Iran. The three founding countries must unanimously approve any new member.

Under the treaty, it will remain in force indefinitely, but any member may withdraw after 10 years with three months' written notice.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan speaks to MPs at his party's group meeting in the Turkish parliament on Jan. 21, 2026, in Ankara, Turkey. Serdar Ozsoy/Getty Images

https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden
Mon, 10/26/2026 - 02:00

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/turkey-begins-ratifying-mecca-defense-pact-saudi-arabia-and-pakistan

Is It Time For Another Worldwide Civilizational Collapse? Is It ...

2026-10-26T03:59:00Z

Is It Time For Another Worldwide Civilizational Collapse?

Is It Time For Another Worldwide Civilizational Collapse?

https://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2026/10/is-it-time-for-another-worldwide-civilizational-collapse/,

It has happened before in history. Those who think it can't happen again are out of their minds...

In 1200 B.C., worldwide civilization fell into ruin. That is only partially an overstatement. The Americas and Asia were on a separate path, but the Mediterranean complex of civilizations, the "known world," was all but destroyed. It was laying the foundation of Western Civilization, which is the modern worldwide standard for science, technology, human rights, and self-government - and critically, an enduring monotheistic society.

The Bronze Age collapse took about a century, but that is sudden in terms of history. Before 1300 B.C. there was a network of prosperous, stable kingdoms. Then, shortly thereafter, everything went wrong at once. Volcanoes and invasions were the headline causes, but numerous other factors came into play. The result was the destruction of mighty empires. Thriving cities fell into ruin. Trade routes were cut. Barbarians massacred entire populations.

Recovery took centuries, but here we are, enjoying yet another golden age of worldwide prosperity. Yes, there are dark spots and open sores in the picture, but day to day, most people awaken to indoor plumbing and controlled temperatures. They enjoy breakfast, and they thrive within family, career, and comfort.

It could all come crashing down in a lifetime or less.

In the 1980s, cultural revolutionaries chanted, "Hey, hey, ho, ho, Western civ has got to go." If no one took them seriously at the time, we do now, because they are getting their wish.

Witness Europe. The aforementioned modern worldwide standard for science, etc. is being eroded. Invaders who once were repelled at the walls have now been invited in through the gates, and given food, shelter, medical care, and freedom. In return, they plunder, rape, and murder their benefactors. The revolution continues.

All of this was not only eminently predictable, but actually predicted. Hungary and Poland sounded the warning loud and clear, as did classic liberals throughout Europe and the anglosphere. Today, those two nations are the safest and most stable countries in Europe, yet they are excoriated by the others for practicing the very policies that make them the shining examples of what the continent could be. The lepers are screaming at the healthy, "Be like us!"

Is a reversal of the currently unfolding self-destruction possible? Yes, but the bandage must be painfully ripped off. Mass deportation, previously unthinkable to the leftist mind, is now being seriously discussed as a necessity. Painful solutions, however, are not something ignorant populations accept, or even understand.

As our Founders understood, evils will be suffered while they are sufferable, but eventually, they become neither tolerable nor tolerated. What happens when the evils are so deeply embedded that removing them is not merely painful, but destructive of the institutions of power?

Embedded they are. Western Europe, which was once the bastion of all that is valuable in a free society, has fallen into a state of what can only be called terminal madness - a state in which the cure is deemed to be the disease, and vice versa.

Worse yet, Canada and Australia, legendary allies and partners of the United States, are falling headlong into the same mire. Mires, almost by definition, only get worse, pulling their victims ever downward the more they struggle to extricate themselves. Canada will soon discover this, courtesy of its new friends in Communist China.

In the 1940s, European civilization was on the brink of final collapse. The economies of Italy and Germany had become so distressed that brutal dictatorships were installed as a solution, bringing ever more ruin. Will history repeat itself?

There is hope. Bronze was never the best metal; iron is better, but iron is more difficult to forge than the copper-tin alloy of bronze. Only when the supplies of tin were cut off were the metalsmiths forced to resort to the more abundant, and stronger, elemental iron. It had been there all along, available the whole time. (Does this give greater meaning to the word irony?)

By analogy, multiculturalism is the weak alloy of various, incompatible cultures. The values of Western civilization are the iron - difficult to practice but superior values to which we must return. Europe can survive, but it will have to be dragged, kicking and screaming (and worse) the whole way.

Viva Hungary. Viva Poland.

We publish a variety of perspectives. Nothing written here is to be construed as representing the views of ZeroHedge.

https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden
Sun, 10/25/2026 - 23:59

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/it-time-another-worldwide-civilizational-collapse

Israel Has Its Pretext For Total War On West Bank Israel Has Its ...

2026-10-26T03:59:00Z

Israel Has Its Pretext For Total War On West Bank

Israel Has Its Pretext For Total War On West Bank

https://consortiumnews.com/2026/10/23/israel-has-its-pretext-for-total-war-on-west-bank/

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has threatened a major military offensive against the West Bank four days before he stands for re-election after two Israeli soldiers were killed on Friday in Hebron.

Consortium News on Thursday https://consortiumnews.com/2026/10/22/israel-threatens-total-war-on-the-west-bank/ that Palestinians killing an Israeli on the West Bank could trigger an all-out war against the Palestinian Authority.

Netanyahu announcement outside Hebron, screengrab via Israeli mediaIt is still unclear what led to the Israeli soldiers being killed after a clash with what early reports call Palestinian "gunmen." The men, identified by the Israelis as Firas and Hamouda al-Jaaba, did not appear to be members of the PA security forces.

Netanyahu rushed to Hebron, where in military gear, he announced that the entire city would be shut down as the IDF carried out house-to-house operations. He https://www.haaretz.com/west-bank/2026-10-23/ty-article/.premium/after-west-bank-shooting-netanyahu-says-idf-to-evacuate-gunmens-neighborhood/000001a1-688d-d6e1-abb7-7ecfda150000 a major military operation in the West Bank, “of a scale not seen since the Six-Day War,” when Israel began its occupation of the territory in 1967.

“The IDF is ready to carry it out. We will determine the timing, but it is coming,” he said.

Before it was known that the Israeli soldiers had been killed, he issued this https://x.com/IsraeliPM/status/2113544984729178526:

“It appears that Hamas terrorists were planning a major attack aimed at murdering innocent civilians, as evidenced by the large quantities of weapons and ammunition discovered. … I have instructed the IDF and security forces to immediately cordon off the city of Hebron and take additional security measures to prevent terrorist attacks originating from Judea and Samaria.”

Bezalel Smotrich, Israel’s extreme right finance minister, also in Hebron, https://www.bgnes.com/conflicts/smotrich-calls-for-gaza-style-military-operation-as-israeli-forces-seal-off-hebron for a major war against the occupied West Bank similar to Gaza.

“There is no alternative to a comprehensive military operation in Judea and Samaria that will lead to the dismantling of the Palestinian Authority, the confiscation of weapons and the elimination of terrorists. Just as in Gaza and Lebanon,” said Smotrich, who added he would push for the operation to be approved and implemented.

Consortium News reported Thursday:

“Israel is threatening ‘total war’ against the Palestinian Authority in the West Bank.

With just days to go before the Israeli general election on Oct. 27, Israel’s prime minister and defense minister have threatened a full-scale attack if an Israel settler or soldier is killed by a member of the Palestinian security forces.”

The article said that both Netanyahu and Defense Minister Israel Katz warned that Palestinians killing an Israeli soldier or settler on the West bank would trigger a major offensive.

Katz said that the IDF was waiting for PA security personnel and associated groups to “turn their guns” against Israeli settlers and IDF troops in the West Bank.

He said:

“In such a case, war will be declared against the Palestinian Authority, and the IDF will launch a comprehensive offensive in accordance with an organized plan that was formulated and approved by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and by me, according to the principles outlined for the IDF.”

Katz added:

“The campaign will be short and powerful, and will include the use of ground and air forces, and the use of special means, the targeting and expulsion of senior officials, the destruction of weapons and military equipment, and the extensive evacuation of residents and destruction of terrorist infrastructure inside the cities and in all refugee camps in Judea and Samaria[West Bank] , in accordance with the Gaza and Lebanon model, alongside reinforcing forces and defending the Israeli communities.”

During a visit to a West Bank security barrier on Oct.13, Netanyahu also https://www.ynetnews.com/article/rksm00j2igg of all out war against Ramallah. “Our enemies are thinking of testing us in these days leading up to the elections. I warn them that we are prepared for every scenario, including what is known as ‘turning the guns around,’” he said.

Netanyahu said the IDF had given him and Katz “a powerful, robust plan. … In such a scenario, I wouldn’t advise our enemies to test us. You will encounter a level of force here that you never imagined.”

Israeli forces demolished homes and damaged roads in Hebron in the occupied West Bank, forcing around 1,200 Palestinians to leave their homes a day after a Palestinian attack killed two Israeli soldiers https://t.co/VncVZYi618 https://t.co/fVgqU0mQQC
— Reuters (@Reuters) https://x.com/Reuters/status/2114035439069700322?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
CN speculated that Israel could provoke such a killing just days before the election in order to give Netanyahu the casus belli.

Polls indicate his party will not win a majority to form a new government, it could come in second place and that he might not be asked to form a new government. Netanyahu face possible jail time on corruption charges if he is no longer the prime minister.

https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden
Sun, 10/25/2026 - 23:59

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/israel-has-its-pretext-total-war-west-bank

Kentucky Could Go From Zero Reactors To America's Biggest ...

2026-10-26T03:30:00Z

Kentucky Could Go From Zero Reactors To America's Biggest Nuclear Plant

Kentucky Could Go From Zero Reactors To America's Biggest Nuclear Plant

The Nuclear Company (TNC) https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/the-nuclear-company-announces-prosperity-one-a-6-6-gigawatt-nuclear-power-campus-in-lewis-county-kentucky-302914846.html plans on October 21st for Prosperity One, a campus on the Ohio River in Lewis County, Kentucky, with room for up to six Westinghouse AP1000 reactors.

At roughly 6.6 GW, a fully built Prosperity One would top Georgia's four-unit Plant Vogtle as the largest nuclear plant in the country. That's more than a third of the roughly 18 GW of generating capacity Kentucky currently has.

It would also be Kentucky's first commercial reactor. The state only https://www.powermag.com/the-nuclear-company-proposes-6-6-gw-ap1000-nuclear-campus-in-kentucky/ its decades-old restrictions on new nuclear construction in 2017.

The first phase calls for two units, and TNC wants federal approvals in hand to start construction in 2028.

That's ambitious for a project that hasn't filed anything with the NRC or PJM yet…

Power generation comps: nat gas still cheapest but grid queue now up to 5 years. Restart and uprates of nuclear more expensive but wait time much less. https://t.co/EI9F9GbrLE
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) https://x.com/zerohedge/status/2107485619853430931?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
The Carrs Bottom site near Vanceburg was once assembled for a coal plant that was later abandoned, and it sits half a mile from a 765 kV line feeding PJM. The land belongs to lifelong Lewis County resident Sam Howard, who is partnering on the project.

"I have nine grandchildren, and all of them live in Lewis County," Howard said. "I want them to have the opportunity to stay."

We've been tracking TNC for a while. In April, we https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/nuclear-co-plans-new-south-carolina-reactor the startup was preparing to propose an AP1000 at one of three South Carolina sites, noting that the $80 billion Westinghouse deal struck with Washington six months earlier had produced zero visible shovels in the dirt.

Weeks later, TNC and Brookfield, which owns 51% of Westinghouse, https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/nuclear-co-and-brookfield-partner-new-large-reactor-projects on a new company to develop Westinghouse reactor projects. Its first job is the possible completion of VC Summer Units 2 and 3, the two half-built AP1000s abandoned in 2017 after South Carolina utilities sank about $9 billion into them.

Cost overruns at the https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/westinghouse-eyes-50-billion-ipo-america-builds-valuations-faster-reactors Vogtle and Summer projects drove Westinghouse into bankruptcy that same year. Fast forward almost 10 years, and now the company is looking to IPO at almost $50 billion.

In May, we noted Brookfield was working toward a final investment decision by 2027, which would mean paying state-owned Santee Cooper $2.7 billion for the unfinished units. Brookfield has since told Santee Cooper's board it will make that call by March 31, 2028.

Kentucky is a bigger undertaking. Prosperity One is a greenfield site rather than an expansion of an existing plant, and TNC is betting that building the same reactor over and over will bring costs down.

Vogtle Unit 4 came online roughly 30% cheaper and faster than Unit 3, https://heatmap.news/energy/the-nuclear-company-prosperity-one. Joe Klecha, TNC's chief nuclear officer and a Vogtle construction veteran, expects at least that much at Prosperity One: "The 30%, I would say, is the floor on the savings from the first unit to the second unit."

That squares with the McKinsey work we https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/american-nuclear-energy-highest-ambitions-and-highest-costs in July, which credited identical units at the UAE's Barakah plant with cutting costs "from construction of the first unit to the fourth by roughly 40 percent."

The NRC has done some of the work already. On October 14th, it https://www.nrc.gov/about-nrc/news-releases/2026/26-080 the AP1000's design certification through 2066, folding in lessons from the nearly 200 license amendments approved during Vogtle's construction and startup.

Chairman Ho Nieh said the update "provides the regulatory foundation for America to move from building individual reactors to deploying them at scale."

Now find a buyer

What TNC doesn't have yet is a customer. It hasn't disclosed a cost estimate, a financing plan, or who will own the plant, though it says it’s negotiating offtake agreements and expects deals by next year.

In June, the DOE https://www.ans.org/news/2026-06-23/article-8142/doe-announces-175b-in-conditional-loans-for-ap1000-builds/ a $17.5 billion conditional commitment for long-lead AP1000 equipment, built around up to five two-reactor sites. Prosperity One's two-unit first phase would match that structure.

Then there's Korea. When Seoul's $120 billion reactor pledge was announced last month, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick https://www.ans.org/news/article-8453/south-korea-to-invest-in-us-nuclear-projects-including-8-large-reactors/ the units were "going in Kentucky," among other states.

Brookfield says those AP1000s will go on federal land, but TNC hasn't said whether Prosperity One is connected.

https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden
Sun, 10/25/2026 - 23:30

https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/kentucky-could-go-zero-reactors-americas-biggest-nuclear-plant

Seattle Plans 200 New Public EV Chargers Despite Slowing U.S. ...

2026-10-26T02:30:00Z

Seattle Plans 200 New Public EV Chargers Despite Slowing U.S. Electric Vehicle Sales

Seattle Plans 200 New Public EV Chargers Despite Slowing U.S. Electric Vehicle Sales

Seattle is moving ahead with a significant expansion of its electric vehicle charging infrastructure, announcing plans to bring another 200 public charging stations to city streets as part of an effort to make EV ownership more practical for residents without private garages or driveways, according to https://www.myballard.com/2026/10/23/seattle-to-install-hundreds-of-new-curbside-ev-chargers/.

The project represents the next phase of an earlier rollout that brought 58 charging units to 31 sites between 2023 and 2024. Seattle City Light and the city's transportation department will oversee the expansion, with particular attention given to apartment-heavy neighborhoods where residents often lack convenient places to plug in their vehicles overnight.

Rather than choosing every location in advance, Seattle is inviting residents and building owners to recommend potential sites through fall 2027. Officials will evaluate submissions in successive rounds of roughly 40 to 50 locations, weighing factors such as neighborhood population, existing charging availability, nearby commercial activity, and the number of households that could benefit. Areas historically underserved by public investment will also receive consideration.

The https://www.myballard.com/2026/10/23/seattle-to-install-hundreds-of-new-curbside-ev-chargers/ that each station will offer Level 2 charging with a maximum output of 9.6 kilowatts, translating to roughly 30 additional miles of driving range per hour under typical conditions. The equipment will come in several configurations, including freestanding units and chargers mounted to existing utility poles. Drivers will be able to use the stations without booking ahead, although access will depend on availability.

Engineering and planning work is expected to get underway in spring 2027, followed by the first installations later that year. Individual sites should require approximately two weeks of construction. The expansion will be financed through Seattle's voter-approved transportation levy alongside funding from the municipal electric utility.

The investment comes during a difficult period for the broader U.S. electric vehicle industry. According to Cox Automotive, Americans purchased approximately 263,000 new EVs during the third quarter of 2026, a 39.5% decline from the same period last year, when buyers rushed to take advantage of expiring federal tax incentives. EVs represented approximately 6.4% of new vehicle sales during the quarter, down from more than 10% a year earlier, although sales improved sequentially throughout 2026.

Tesla remains the dominant manufacturer, accounting for more than half of U.S. EV purchases, even as its own quarterly sales declined roughly 20% year over year. The figures highlight the challenge facing the industry: public charging networks continue to expand even as consumer adoption has slowed considerably from its previous pace.

https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden
Sun, 10/25/2026 - 22:30

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/seattle-plans-200-new-public-ev-chargers-despite-slowing-us-electric-vehicle-sales

Meanwhile, Today In 'Everything Is Racist'... Meanwhile, ...

2026-10-26T02:00:00Z

Meanwhile, Today In 'Everything Is Racist'...

Meanwhile, Today In 'Everything Is Racist'...

https://modernity.news/2026/10/24/today-in-everything-is-racist-3/,

A Harlem bagel shop that has served its neighborhood for nearly a decade was forced to pull a cartoon mascot from the sidewalk after an influencer declared the smiling, sunglasses-wearing bagel a "blackface bagel."

Yes, really. Bagels are now racist.

Threats and harassment followed. The offense was a piece of local street art.

'Blackface Bagel' gets axed from Harlem bagel shop https://t.co/aK1WBcm5fj https://t.co/XQBA3dlArr
— New York Post (@nypost) https://x.com/nypost/status/2112679445891105003?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw

Bo's Bagels on West 116th Street, opened in 2017 by New York native Andrew Martinez and co-owner Ashley Dikos after they could not find decent bagels in the area, displayed a life-sized cardboard cutout that doubled as a chalkboard sign.

Designed by Harlem-based artist Tom Sanford, the mascot featured golden grills reading "Harlem World," a large gold ring marked "NYC," and the cheerful expression of a cartoon character.

Critics treated the grills, ring, and browned cartoon skin as evidence of a racist caricature.

The sequence began with Harlem photographer Carl Broady, who posted on Instagram that the sign was a "disrespectful caricature of black people."

He wrote that "the sign's exaggerated features, bulging lips and teeth, and darkened skin tone [...] recall the racist caricatures historically used to degrade Black people."

The post gained traction. TikTok creator Anastazia X, who has roughly 4,000 followers and produces content under Black Star Reviews while involved with Harlem Votes, visited the shop and amplified the claim.

In her video she called the cutout a "blackface bagel" and said "it's not funny," while describing other art inside as "a little askew." She also stated the shop was white-owned and that an email she sent had been ignored. The video spread, drawing comments that framed the grills and overall look as stereotypical.

Martinez, who has lived in Harlem for nearly 20 years, told the New York Post the situation "got completely out of hand by a bunch of people who know nothing about us. And the rage was coming in from people who just wanted to call us racist."

He said callers contacted his Black employees with the message "you need to leave there because your owners hate you," which he rejected as untrue. Other influencers arrived to film additional videos.

The owners removed the cutout from the sidewalk and placed it out of sight. Martinez noted that local customers already know the shop's record: "This is actually almost weird to us because Harlemites love us. They know what we do. We donate to schools. We give food away to the homeless shelters."

Sanford, who has lived in Harlem since the mid-1990s and whose other work includes life-sized Knicks player cutouts displayed near City Hall during the team's recent championship run, rejected the blackface framing.

"I did not intend it to be necessarily African American, but I did want it to be of Harlem," he told NBC New York. He added, "Personally, I do not see uptown streetwear culture in a negative light at all," and described the grills and related elements as "overwhelmingly positive cultural contributions that came from the streets of my neighborhood and crossed over into the mainstream."

He said he wanted "nothing more than to celebrate that culture," linking the design to hip-hop and neighborhood street style rather than historical minstrel imagery.

Co-owner Ashley Dikos, who has run the shop with Martinez for nearly a decade, described the piece the same way: "That art to me was celebratory, positive. He's smiling, it's a bagel, it's a cartoon. It just wasn't ever supposed to be controversial." She later observed that "being a business owner is not for the faint of heart."

Neighborhood reactions were not uniform. One longtime Harlem resident told the Post he saw "stereotypical imagery" in the gold chains and overall presentation, comparing it to older caricatures.

Another resident, Genisha Metcalf, said plainly "that's not blackface" and that labeling the sign racist went too far.

Local accounts on X later questioned the rush to condemnation, noting the shop's employment of Black staff and its support for neighborhood causes, and asked why energy was directed at a cardboard mascot rather than other issues in the area.

Anastazia X later told the Post she was "sorry that employees and the owner have been harassed as a result of the video" and that "that was not my intention and I don't condone or support any behavior of that kind."

Here we go again. The Black community is yet again outraged and calling racism. This time over a toasted bagelI repeat... Toasted bagels are now racist in America according to the Black communityA bagel shop in Harlem, New York is forced to remove their sign out front of a toasted bagel because according to black people, it's racistThey say because the bagel was toasted it reminds the black community of "Black face"The shop owner has allegedly received threats and harassment over this toasted bagel
— Wall Street Apes (@WallStreetApes) https://x.com/WallStreetApes/status/2113733324514730308?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
The episode fits a familiar pattern in which ordinary commercial expression - here a smiling bagel character referencing the very neighborhood street culture the artist and owners live in - becomes the next target once the online machinery identifies an angle.

When a cartoon bagel with grills and a ring can generate this response and force a small business to alter its storefront, the standard for offense has expanded beyond comprehension.

https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden
Sun, 10/25/2026 - 22:00

https://www.zerohedge.com/political/meanwhile-today-everything-racist

America Can't Stockpile Missiles Without Reloading On ...

2026-10-26T01:00:00Z

America Can't Stockpile Missiles Without Reloading On Conflict-Free Critical Materials

America Can't Stockpile Missiles Without Reloading On Conflict-Free Critical Materials

Authored by Anthony Milewski of https://theoregongroup.com/commodities/tungsten/the-missile-race-is-becoming-a-race-for-critical-minerals/,

Sixteen days of the Iran war left coalition forces needing an https://www.rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/over-11000-munitions-16-days-iran-war-command-reload-governs-endurance 4,000kg of tungsten just to replace the expended gun ammunition — but US mines produced none of the metal in 2025 and, instead, China accounted for https://pubs.usgs.gov/periodicals/mcs2026/mcs2026.pdf.

And it's not just tungsten.

In a https://www.rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/over-11000-munitions-16-days-iran-war-command-reload-governs-endurance, researchers estimated coalition forces expended more than 11,000 munitions in the first 16 days. And https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-08-11/key-us-munitions-are-dangerously-low-bloomberg-economics-says?srnd=homepage-americas will require secure access to a wide range critical minerals — from antimony to copper, rare earths to titanium — that make advanced weapon systems possible.

And the West's exposure, especially dependence on Chinese supply, is substantial.

"If the war in https://www.rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/occasional-papers/winning-industrial-war-comparing-russia-europe-and-ukraine-2022-24 was a https://www.csis.org/analysis/defense-industrial-base-lessons-russia-ukraine-conflict-focus for the https://www.rand.org/pubs/commentary/2024/05/heres-what-ukraine-needs-in-missiles-shells-and-troops.html, the first 16 days of the Iran conflict are a fire alarm signalling a crisis of endurance" — https://www.rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/over-11000-munitions-16-days-iran-war-command-reload-governs-endurance

Material risk matrix from https://warontherocks.com/cogs-of-war/these-materials-could-cripple-americas-defense-industrial-base/. The authors' scores show relative risks, not measured percentages.

The critical mineral risks behind the weaponry

In their August 2025 https://warontherocks.com/cogs-of-war/these-materials-could-cripple-americas-defense-industrial-base/, Macdonald Amoah, Morgan Bazilian, Clarkson Kamurai and Jahara Matisek, ranks across two broad tiers:

- https://warontherocks.com/cogs-of-war/these-materials-could-cripple-americas-defense-industrial-base/ are gallium, the battery-chemicals chain, tungsten, and graphite

- https://warontherocks.com/cogs-of-war/these-materials-could-cripple-americas-defense-industrial-base/ includes titanium sponge, germanium, antimony, indium, magnesium, and molybdenum, with nitrocellulose and finish-line capacity in specialty steels and aerospace aluminum (requiring near-term hedges because surge capacity is slow to add)
The assessment combines concentration of supply, military importance, limited substitutes and the time needed to add capacity. For example, refining, separation and specialised finishing are frequent constraints https://iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/19c60aa0-ee07-4a20-a138-33c967ac5008/GlobalCriticalMineralsOutlook2026.pdf that leaves part of the exposure intact.

Across ammunition, missiles and supporting military systems, six critical mineral priorities stand out:

- Magnet rare earths, including samarium, specialised magnets support military aircraft, missiles and control systems, making a secure https://www.defense.gov/News/News-Stories/Article/Article/3700059/dod-looks-to-establish-mine-to-magnet-supply-chain-for-rare-earth-materials/ strategically important

- Tungsten, its role in https://www.usgs.gov/centers/national-minerals-information-center/tungsten-statistics-and-information connects mineral supply to both weapons and the equipment used to manufacture them

- Antimony, antimony trisulfide is used in ammunition primers; defence support for https://www.investors.perpetuaresources.com/investors/news/perpetua-resources-awarded-department-of-defense-funding-to-study-antimony-from-stibnite-gold-project connects mine development to that requirement

- Gallium, its semiconductor applications support radar and military communications; the Pentagon announced a https://ebs.publicnow.com/view/AB6B9EDDFE5E34255E2AA8E591CD80216ED66AF2 in August 2026

- Germanium, infrared optics and thermal-sensing equipment need dependable material supply; the Defense Logistics Agency has supported https://www.dla.mil/About-DLA/News/News-Article-View/Article/3075059/dla-program-introduces-domestic-germanium-recycling-capability/

- Titanium, strong, lightweight materials are essential to military aerospace; defence backing for https://iperionx.com/2025/02/18/iperionx-awarded-47-1m-by-the-u-s-dod-to-secure-u-s-titanium-supply-chains/ illustrates the effort to expand alternative supply
For example, tungsten and gallium illustrate America's (and the West's) vulnerability because they underpin both weapons and the systems that support them: tungsten is used in https://www.usgs.gov/centers/national-minerals-information-center/tungsten-statistics-and-information, while gallium enables https://www.rtx.com/news/news-center/2026/06/03/rtxs-raytheon-awarded-515-million-contract-for-spy-6-family-of-radars. Yet, China accounted for approx https://pubs.usgs.gov/periodicals/mcs2026/mcs2026.pdf in 2025, exposing these capabilities to highly concentrated mineral supply chains.

An arsenal built on imported minerals

US vulnerability extends across the critical-mineral supply chain.

A https://www.gao.gov/assets/890/887977.pdf reported that the US was fully import-dependent for 12 critical minerals and relied on imports for at least half its requirements for another 34.

https://pubs.usgs.gov/periodicals/mcs2026/mcs2026.pdf. Total import reliance is for 2025; China's share of imports covers 2021–24. The two measures have different denominators

Despite recent government funding, the scale of the challenge for the US remains significant, for example:

- recycling and substitution can help, but their contribution varies, with the US Government Accountability Office warning that https://www.gao.gov/products/gao-26-108687.

- the https://theoregongroup.com/latest-news/why-antimonys-supply-crisis-is-far-from-over/ illustrates the scale of that challenge with S&P Global's August 2026 assessment estimating that, even if announced projects proceed, https://www.spglobal.com/content/dam/spglobal/global-assets/en/special-reports/critical-mineral-market-reports/Market%2520Report%2520-%2520Antimony%2520-%252008052026.pdf. It also warned that new processing facilities could face shortages of mine feedstock

- a https://www.hoover.org/sites/default/files/2026-02/HISPBC2025_DirectorsAward_2025.pdf, citing Stanford research, recounts a defence contractor tracing a titanium supply chain through 13 tiers to Chinese mines and transport infrastructure — leading directly to "Chinese mines, Chinese roads, and Chinese trucks"
The Pentagon is increasingly explicit about the stakes.

"Securing resilient domestic and allied supply chains is a fundamental warfighting requirement," said Mike Cadenazzi, the Pentagon's assistant secretary responsible for industrial base policy, in an https://www.war.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/4581110/department-of-war-announces-a-750-million-investment-as-part-of-a-155-billion-i/.

Acting Secretary of the Army Honorable Adam Telle https://www.army.mil/article-amp/296069/army_announces_first_ever_manufacturing_rodeo, describing it as a competitive stress test for both the Army's organic industrial base and the nation's broader manufacturing network.

Meanwhile, the https://theoregongroup.com/commodities/copper/military-rearmament-is-just-getting-started-without-enough-critical-minerals/ are becoming more pressing. Global military expenditure reached a https://www.sipri.org/media/press-release/2026/global-military-spending-rise-continues-european-and-asian-expenditures-surge, with European spending rising 14% in real terms. US expenditure fell that year, but the wider rearmament cycle continued. Larger budgets create purchasing power; they cannot immediately create additional mineral supply.

Tungsten shows why securing supply takes more than money

The four tonnes of tungsten used in the weapons fired in the 11 days of the Iran War is a relatively small quantity in the wider tungsten market (the US https://pubs.usgs.gov/periodicals/mcs2026/mcs2026.pdf) — but securing dependable supplies outside China increasingly means committing years ahead.

In July 2026, US processor Global Tungsten & Powders extended its agreement for approximately https://almonty.com/almonty-expands-sangdong-tungsten-offtake-agreement-with-global-tungsten-powders/; buyers seeking additional material face a market where substantial volumes of new supply already have a customer.

And China has tightened access to its own production after, in February 2025, Beijing introduced https://exportcontrol.mofcom.gov.cn/article/hgfw/lywxcx/gzqd/202502/1102.html. https://www.spglobal.com/content/dam/spglobal/global-assets/en/special-reports/critical-mineral-market-reports/Market%2520Report%2520-%2520Tungsten%2520-%252008052026.pdf found that prices more than quadrupled between January-July in 2026.

(See our recent article https://theoregongroup.com/commodities/tungsten/tungsten-price-shock-signals-deeper-supply-crisis/)

US sourcing requirements are tightening too: from January 2027, https://www.acquisition.gov/node/36574/printable/print, generally excluding Chinese-origin material even when processed elsewhere, subject to specified exceptions.

Turning defence demand into secure mineral supply

The clearest evidence of the strategic urgency is Washington's growing intervention in mining finance — particularly domestic projects — including:

- MP Materials' https://investors.mpmaterials.com/investor-news/news-details/2025/MP-Materials-Announces-Transformational-Public-Private-Partnership-with-the-Department-of-Defense-to-Accelerate-U-S--Rare-Earth-Magnet-Independence/default.aspx combined equity, a ten-year price floor for neodymium-praseodymium products, long-term magnet purchases and financing

- the Pentagon's https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2101698/000121390026099734/ea0304682-8k_elmet.htm for tungsten mining in Nevada, including an initial US$200 million investment closed in September 2026

- USA Rare Earth's https://www.nist.gov/news-events/news/2026/06/department-commerces-chips-program-finalizes-definitive-agreement-usa-rare provides access to approx US$1.6 billion, to support the Round Top mining and processing project in Texas and expand US metal and magnet production

- the Pentagon's https://www.war.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/4581110/department-of-war-announces-a-750-million-investment-as-part-of-a-155-billion-i/ forms part of a US$1.55 billion financing structure supporting an offtake agreement, alongside a US$300 million Defense Logistics Agency purchase commitment and US$500 million bank commitment

- The Pentagon's https://www.war.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/4587183/department-of-war-announces-174-million-investment-to-secure-gallium-supply-cha/ will support construction of a facility at Alcoa's Wagerup refinery, projected to produce 100 tonnes annually, through a partnership involving Australia and Japan

- The US International Development Finance Corporation's https://www.dfc.gov/media/press-releases/dfc-highlights-landmark-critical-minerals-investments-strengthen-us-national closed in January 2026. By July, its board had https://www.dfc.gov/media/press-releases/dfc-ceo-ben-black-gives-opening-remarks-hearing-ending-supply-chain-dependency to support a portfolio of critical-mineral projects, including a proposed investment in copper and cobalt operations in the DRC
Conclusion

Before America can reload its missile stockpiles, it must first reload its critical-mineral supply chains — potentially making the mining companies capable of delivering those materials at scale strategic pillars of the US defense industrial base.

* * *

Our Take

The Oregon Group's assessment that the US must "reload its critical-mineral supply chains" before accelerating the rearmament supercycle reinforces our focus on miners already producing these materials.

Yet a sharp disconnect has emerged between mining stocks and underlying spot metal prices.

We highlighted that divergence in "https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/great-rare-earth-disconnect-prices-23-miners-down-28,"; a view shared by William Blair analysts, which suggested that rare earth stocks trading at 52-week lows...

... may present a https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/rare-earth-stocks-hit-52-week-low-william-blair-says-china-supply-optimism-incorrect, arguing that optimism surrounding Chinese supply is "incorrect."

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Sun, 10/25/2026 - 21:00

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Lula Leads After Last-Minute Voting Extension As "Bolsonaro ...

2026-10-26T00:37:00Z

Lula Leads After Last-Minute Voting Extension As "Bolsonaro Trade" Implodes; Trader Warns Of "Circuit Breaker" Chaos

Lula Leads After Last-Minute Voting Extension As "Bolsonaro Trade" Implodes; Trader Warns Of "Circuit Breaker" Chaos

Summary:

- With 99.7% of ballots counted, Lula has 51.8% of the vote, while Bolsonaro has 48.2%.

- Brazilian Supreme Court Judge Extends Voting Time By Two Hours

- Brazil Runoff Enters Final Hour: Left-Right Showdown Could Reshape Latin America's Political Balance
Latest Election Update

With 99.7% of ballots counted, Lula has 51.8% of the vote, while Bolsonaro has 48.2%.

Earlier, Lula asked a Brazilian Supreme Court judge to extend voting nationwide by two hours.

That likely allowed...

done and done: the steal is in Pollster Datafolha is now projecting Lula as the winner of Brazil’s presidential election
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) https://x.com/zerohedge/status/2114506957260497014?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
"If a conservative government in Brazil did this, everyone in the mainstream press in America would lose their minds, but I guess they're just choosing to be silent because it's all for the cause," Donald Trump Jr. wrote on X, commenting on Lula's last-minute request to extend voting.

If a conservative government in Brazil did this, everyone in the mainstream press in America would lose their minds, but I guess they’re just choosing to be silent because it’s all for the cause.
— Donald Trump Jr. (@DonaldJTrumpJr) https://x.com/DonaldJTrumpJr/status/2114494630557560937?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
In markets, Hyperliquid's Brazil ETF perpetual crashed nearly 30% as the "Bolsonaro trade" unwinds.

Bloomberg analyst Felipe Saturnino cited Isabela Fukase, a fixed-income portfolio manager at Tivio Capital, who warned: "There will be a 'circuit breaker' in Brazil stocks and DI rates tomorrow" if Lula is confirmed as the winner.

Fukase said that, in that scenario, swap rate futures would rise "more than 150 basis points easily, 200 basis points," while the Brazilian real would likely fall about 10%.

All it took for Lula and the socialists was to extend the election. This will probably be challenged.

Brazilian Supreme Court Judge Extends Voting Time By Two Hours

AFP News reports that a Brazilian Supreme Court judge extended voting nationwide by two hours after complaints that public transport problems had hindered access to polling stations.

Justice Cristiano Zanin ordered polling stations to remain open until 7 p.m. local time, or 6 p.m. in New York, following a request from President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva.

One key question is whether the additional voting window boosts turnout in Lula's favor. The transport complaints also raise questions about cheating.

Hyperliquid's Brazil ETF perpetual dropped 3.5% on the news.

Brazil Runoff Enters Final Hour: Left-Right Showdown Could Reshape Latin America's Political Balance

Brazilians began voting early Sunday in a presidential runoff, with right-wing Senator Flávio Bolsonaro and socialist President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva statistically tied. Bolsonaro won the first round at the start of the month.

Nearly 160 million people are eligible to vote today, with polling stations closing at 1600 ET. A last-minute AtlasIntel survey for Bloomberg, released Saturday, showed Bolsonaro leading Lula 51% to 49%, largely in line with other final polls. The survey's margin of error was 1 percentage point.

Regular readers will remember that polls showed Lula ahead going into the first round, but Bolsonaro finished ahead with 47.03% of valid votes to Lula's 45.16%.

Goldman's chief Latin America economist, Alberto Ramos, provides the latest in his https://marketdesk.ai/standalone/217nMEKIluJ (https://www.zerohedge.com/signup/professional-membership-year):

"The race has tightened considerably. Polls immediately after the first round gave conservative Bolsonaro a 4- to 5-point lead over left-wing incumbent President Lula in the October 25 runoff. His lead has since narrowed to 0 to 2.5 points, with one outlier, Vox, showing Lula slightly ahead. Prediction markets still favor Bolsonaro, but the odds are less lopsided than immediately after the first round."

Here is Goldman's poll-of-polls, which shows Bolsonaro's lead eroding in the final stretch (chart source: GS GIR):

And here is the full scorecard by pollster. Goldman's average still puts Bolsonaro ahead 51% to 49%, a 2-point lead right on the edge of most surveys' margin of error. Note how many arrows point down: in almost every poll, the senator's lead is smaller than it was in that pollster's previous survey.

https://polymarket.us/event/pres-bra-2026-10-04 gives Bolsonaro an 82% chance of winning the runoff, while Lula's odds are around 20%.

Post-Election Market Outlook:

- https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/photo-finish-brazil-votes-polls-tied-bettors-all-bolsonaro-and-market-priced-lula
UBS analyst Kyle Duca adds more color to FX impact on election results:

Trading and strategy see a wide two-way range for BRL around the presidential runoff, but distinguish between the likely FX and rates reactions in each outcome.

The FX trading desk sees a Lula win pushing USDBRL toward 5.40-5.45, where the move could run out of steam as higher rates bring the carry trade back into play and encourage USDBRL selling.

On a Flavio win, trading sees more of a rates story, with USDBRL likely moving toward 4.90-4.80 before interest to clean up emerges. A sharp rates rally and diminished carry could then leave FX consolidating around those levels.

FX Strategy sees USDBRL at 4.70-4.80 if Flavio wins 52%-48%, with less upside for BRL if the margin is below 1%. A Lula victory would put USDBRL at 5.30-5.50.

The "Bolsonaro trade" is already gaining momentum ahead of the runoff.

The black line, Hyperliquid's Brazil ETF perpetual, has surged to $45.16, about 6% above the iShares MSCI Brazil ETF (EWZ), which closed at $42.59 on Friday.

By this evening, Brazilian voters will decide whether to accelerate Latin America's rightward shift or extend a failed left-wing economic agenda that risks deeper deficits, a mounting debt pile, higher interest rates, more economic gloom, and faltering investor confidence. A Bolsonaro win would cement the continent's rightward shift.

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Sun, 10/25/2026 - 20:37

https://www.zerohedge.com/political/brazil-runoff-enters-final-hour-left-right-showdown-could-reshape-latin-americas

Trump Treasury Lining Up Private Debt Collectors To Seize Wages ...

2026-10-26T00:30:00Z

Trump Treasury Lining Up Private Debt Collectors To Seize Wages From Nearly 10 Million Student Loan Defaulters: Report

Trump Treasury Lining Up Private Debt Collectors To Seize Wages From Nearly 10 Million Student Loan Defaulters: Report

Trump administration officials are preparing to penalize millions of Americans in default on their federal student loans next year, The Washington Sun https://www.washingtonsun.com/economy/trump-aides-plan-penalize-defaulting-student-loan-borrowers, citing five people familiar with the matter. The Treasury Department is moving forward with plans to hire private debt collectors, possibly as soon as November, three of the sources said, and those plans are unlikely to be announced before the midterm elections.

According to the Treasury's https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/sb0639 - there are more than 5 million borrowers who have been in default for over six years and another 5 million who entered default in less than a year.

The plan would revive collections the administration shelved this year. As https://www.zerohedge.com/political/education-department-start-garnishing-wages-defaulted-student-loan-borrowers-january, the Education Department said it would begin garnishing wages in January, with up to 15% of a borrower's after-tax income at stake and about 1,000 notices expected the first week. That same month, however, ABC News https://abcnews.com/Politics/education-department-delays-plan-garnish-wages-defaulted-student/story?id=129295202 that the department paused both wage garnishment and Treasury Offset Program collections - tax refund seizures included. Under Secretary Nicholas Kent said the tools "will function more efficiently and fairly" after reforms, and the department said it had collected roughly $500 million from defaulted borrowers before the pause.

According to the Sun, last year the White House Office of Management and Budget began helping the Education Department prepare to seize federal benefits and wages from defaulted borrowers, and Treasury officials blocked the effort, citing the economic cost of punitive measures against workers. Staff said they warned senior Treasury officials that scores of Trump supporters would be seriously hurt by going after the wages and benefits of people struggling to keep their jobs. "This is not who you think it is. The demographics are not good for us," one source said.

Some officials want to garnish benefits and wages for the current tax year, meaning the April 15, 2027 deadline, but the sources cautioned that it could slip again while Treasury makes sure its new Defaulted Loans Support Center is working. That online portal for rehabilitating or consolidating a defaulted loan https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/sb0639. The administration's stated preference remains getting borrowers into voluntary payment plans. "It would be politically insane to do this before the midterms," one source said, "but 2027 probably makes a little more sense."

The government has two main tools; one seizes payments that follow taxes, such as expected tax refunds, Social Security payments, and the earned income tax credit and child tax credit. The other garnishes wages by requiring employers to send the money to the government. https://www.newsweek.com/student-loan-update-report-warns-that-millions-could-see-wage-garnishment-12596264 that wages can be garnished up to 15% without a court order, citing the National Consumer Law Center, and that borrowers generally get at least 30 days' notice first.

OMB and Treasury declined to comment. The Education Department said: "We don't respond to fishing expeditions." https://www.ibtimes.co.uk/trump-administration-student-loan-collections-restart-1826681 that no agency has responded on the record to the plans themselves, and no restart date has been announced.

Treasury's push last year to postpone collections has cost taxpayers about $5 billion so far, according to Marc Goldwein of the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, and the figure grows the longer the administration waits. "They've done the same thing they criticized Biden for," Goldwein said. Treasury's September release itself blamed the prior administration for the default pile-up, including its termination of contracts with private collection vendors, the same kind of contractors Treasury is now reportedly preparing to hire.

Advocates see the post-election timing as political opportunism. Michael Pierce, executive director of Protect Borrowers, said Treasury may not even have the data needed to certify the debts for collection, a legal prerequisite. "What comes next will be a catastrophe for families across the country," he said. The Center for American Progress estimates 9.5 million borrowers are in default, according to IBTimes.

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Sun, 10/25/2026 - 20:30

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Disarming The Pencil Pushers? Administrative Agencies Begin To ...

2026-10-26T00:00:00Z

Disarming The Pencil Pushers? Administrative Agencies Begin To Cut Spending On Guns, Ammo

Disarming The Pencil Pushers? Administrative Agencies Begin To Cut Spending On Guns, Ammo

https://openthebooks.substack.com/p/disarming-the-pencil-pushers-administrative,

One would expect federal law enforcement agencies like the Federal Bureau of Investigation, Immigration and Customs Enforcement, Secret Service, Customs and Border Protection and Drug Enforcement Administration to have guns to carry out their daily responsibilities.

But what about the administrative agencies like the Internal Revenue Service, Social Security Administration and Small Business Administration?

These and dozens more pencil-pushing federal agencies have spent millions on guns, ammunition and other military-style equipment. Open the Books has documented those staggering figures spent on weapons arsenals over the years, most recently updating them in 2023.

Since then, combined spending at all non-DOD federal agencies did increase again. But hidden behind an understandable growth in spending at the Department of Homeland Security are signs of a drawdown at many non-military agencies.

Topline Figures

Open the Books looked at almost 70 federal offices that bought such equipment between FY 2024 and FY 2026, and found $1.4 billion spent.

Trump's first fiscal year, FY 2026, saw $531 million in spending on guns, ammunition and other military-style equipment.

NOTE: While a fiscal year is Oct. 1 - Sept. 30, reported spending for FY 2026 is currently only available through August 2026. End of year use-it-or-lose-it spending in September, the final month of the fiscal year, makes up a large portion of some agencies' spending. To compare dollars-to-dollars in the previous fiscal years of 2024 and 2025, we used a comparable time period of Oct. 1 through Aug. 31.

In the comparable time period in FY 2024, Biden's final full year, agencies spent $228 million on guns, ammunition and other military-style equipment.

In the comparable time period in FY 2025, which includes the end of Biden's term and beginning of Trump's second term, agencies spent $278 million.

Homeland Security Drives Spending Increase

While the totals show increased spending under the Trump administration, much of it was at the Department of Homeland Security - home to increased enforcement at Immigration and Customs Enforcement.

At DHS, spending on guns and ammo increased almost 236% between FY25 and FY26 - from $60.8 million to $204.4 million.

Those figures exclude $25.1 million spent on iris biometric recognition technology sold by Bi2isolutions. The https://www.biometricupdate.com/202605/ice-expands-field-biometric-identification-with-25m-iris-recognition-contract in May 2026 was for mobile iris scanners and identity-matching services for ICE. The contract was removed from both ICE and broader DHS spending changes as they are not what most would consider guns, ammo or military-style gear like body armor.

For ICE-specific spending, $57.2 million was spent on guns, ammo, explosives, armor, tactical equipment and more in FY26. That's compared to $15 million and $14.4 million in spending the previous two fiscal years, a nearly fourfold increase.

But ICE wasn't the only DHS agency with increased spending.

The U.S. Coast Guard, Customs and Border Protection, U.S. Secret Service, Federal Law Enforcement Training Center, Transportation Security Administration and Office of the Inspector General all saw sizeable increases - and understandably so, as agencies with law enforcement functions.

Here's a breakdown by agency inside DHS:

The Coast Guard's increase is mostly accounted for by two contracts with Teledyne, orders for their night-vision sensors to place on MH-65 and MH-60 helicopters, totaling $61.9M.

Signs of a Drawdown at Administrative Agencies

Some pencil-pushing, regulatory agencies - Departments of Labor and Energy, Environmental Protection Agency - saw sizeable increases in FY26.

The Department of Energy spent around $1.5 million each in FY24 and F25 on ammo, grenades, armor, night vision equipment, but in FY26 spent a massive $40 million on unmanned aircraft for the National Nuclear Security Administration, which safeguards national security through the military application of nuclear science.

Some large spending increases were driven by special programs, such as NASA's Artemis Program to return humans to the Moon. NASA spent $9.4 million in FY24, and $4.2 million in FY25, before exploding to $60.5 million in FY26.

The vast majority of that - $59 million - was spent in summer 2026 on unmanned aircraft, guided missile and space vehicle explosive propulsion units, fuel and components for the Artemis Program.

The EPA spent $108,000 and $155,000 in FY24 and 25, but $1.9 million in FY26 - most of it on chemical detection instruments.

But despite increases as a few agencies, FY 2026 figures show evidence of drawdown at pencil-pushing agencies versus 2025.

General Services Administration, Department of State, Veterans Affairs, Social Security and Internal Revenue Service all show decreased spending since 2025.

Fourteen agencies saw year-over-year drops of more than 50%, including nine agencies where spending was zeroed out. Those nine included the Social Security Administration, the US Mint Federal Prison Industries (UNICOR), the Food and Drug Administration (FDA), and the Indian Health Service.

The Bureau of Reclamation, IRS, Veterans Affairs and Federal Aviation Administration all saw drops between 34% and 94%.

Below are the top ten decreases organized by raw dollar amount, totaling more than $41 million in savings. The Federal Acquisition Service, a part of the General Service Administration that makes bulk purchases for agencies to leverage volume, led the way with a $15.3 million decrease.

In a few of these instances where agencies decreased spending since 2025, spending was already going down from FY24 to FY25, but accelerated in 2026. At GSA's Federal Acquisition Service spending grew between FY24 and FY25 before a big decrease in FY26. This office's drop can be viewed as a bellwhether for lower spending across the agencies, given its role in making purchases at scale.

At the USDA's Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service, around $2 million was spent each year FY24-25 before dropping to $677,000 in FY26.

Disarming the Tax Man

A 2023 https://openthebooks.substack.com/p/the-militarization-of-the-irs-the begged the question, "why does the IRS need guns?" in which the agency was found to have spent $35.2 million on guns, ammunition, and military-style equipment since 2006.

IRS special agents https://www.jobs.irs.gov/resources/job-descriptions/irs-criminal-investigation-special-agent. The years 2020 and 2021 were peak years for the IRS in purchasing weaponry and gear - spending $10 million.

The $10 million in purchases included:

- $2.5 million on ballistic shields ($1.2 million) and 'various other gear for criminal investigation agents" ($1.3 million)

- $1.3 million on duty tactical lighting ($467,000), tactical gear bags ($354,000), ballistic helmets ($267,000), and body armor vests ($243,000)

- Nearly $1 million on Smith & Wesson rifles ($474,000) and Beretta 1301 tactical shotguns ($463,000)

- Purchased 3,000 units of optics compatible tactical holsters for weapons with optical sights and weapons lighting systems.
Such spending at the tax-collecting agency has slowed.

IRS spending on guns and ammo between FY25 and FY26 dropped by 47% (roughly $1.1 million).

Spending on weapons had been $2 million and $2.4 million in FY24 and FY25, respectively, but was $1.3 million in FY26. Of the $5.7 million spent in the last three years, $2.7 million was spent on body armor, while $2.1 million was spent on ammunition.

Less than $1 million was spent on batons, helmets, flashlights, backpacks, nigh vision binoculars, gun safes - but no guns.

Further Reading

https://archive.ph/GZE9R, Sen. Tom Coburn & Adam Andrzejewski, Wall Street Journal, June 2016

Why Are Federal Bureaucrats Buying Guns And Ammo? $158 Million Spent By Non-Military Agencies, Forbes.com, October 2017

https://www.openthebooks.com/the-militarization-of-the-us-executive-agencies--openthebooks-oversight-report/, Open the Books Oversight Report, December 2020

https://www.openthebooks.com/sean-hannity-were-arming-who-the-alarming-arsenals-behind-the-irs-epa-ssa-and-more/, Sean Hannity Radio, April 2023

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Sun, 10/25/2026 - 20:00

https://www.zerohedge.com/political/disarming-pencil-pushers-administrative-agencies-begin-cut-spending-guns-ammo

Democrats Retreat From House Races They Hoped To Flip Democrats ...

2026-10-25T23:30:00Z

Democrats Retreat From House Races They Hoped To Flip

Democrats Retreat From House Races They Hoped To Flip

History favors the party out of power in a midterm, but one problem has dogged the Democratic Party for months, and it's now undermining their plans to win as many seats as possible: money.

House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY)House Majority PAC, the main super PAC supporting House Democrats, has begun pulling advertising money from several Republican-leaning districts where the party has not gained ground, according to a https://www.axios.com/2026/10/20/2026-election-democrats-spending-districts-cash from Axios. Both HMP and the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) have struggled to keep pace with Republican fundraising throughout the cycle. With limited funds late in an expensive midterm, the group must now choose which seats to contest.

The steepest proportional cut came in Tennessee's 5th District, where HMP reduced its October ad reservations from nearly $1.6 million to just over $500,000 as of Monday, according to AdImpact and a source familiar with the matter. That's roughly a two-thirds reduction. According to Axios, Democrats had viewed Columbia Mayor Chaz Molder as a strong contender until redistricting moved the seat to the right and Rep. Andy Ogles lost his primary to former state Agriculture Commissioner Charlie Hatcher. Trump carried the redrawn district by 21 points in 2024, and the Cook Political Report rates it "solidly Republican."

In Florida's 7th District, the group halved its reservations Monday, from $3.9 million to $1.95 million. Former local news anchor Ryan Elijah defeated Rep. Cory Mills in the Republican primary and now faces Democrat Bale Dalton, a former NASA chief of staff and a recruit in the DCCC's "Red to Blue" program. Cook rates the race "likely Republican." The DCCC released a poll Tuesday showing the two candidates tied at 45%.

HMP also cut its Colorado 3rd District spending from more than $2.1 million last week to under $1.1 million as of Monday. The seat grew harder for Democrats after Rep. Lauren Boebert left it and Rep. Jeff Hurd took office last year. Party operatives said Democrat Dwayne Romero, a real estate CEO and Army veteran, has not built the kind of momentum Jessica Killin has generated in the neighboring 5th District.

In addition to those reductions, HMP made partial cuts, which the group calls "shaves," in long-shot races it has not abandoned. That list includes Arizona's 2nd District, where Rep. Eli Crane faces former Navajo Nation President Jonathan Nez in a rematch, and Texas' 23rd District, where Republican YouTuber Brandon Herrera faces Democratic lawyer Katy Padilla Stout. Cook rates both races "likely Republican."

With money being tight, the group also scaled back in districts where it expects Democrats to win. Those include the seats held by Reps. Greg Landsman (D-Ohio) and Kristen McDonald Rivet (D-Mich.), which Cook rates "likely Democratic," along with the open seats of retiring Reps. Darrell Issa (R-Calif.) and Don Bacon (R-Neb.), which Democrats increasingly believe they can flip.

This reallocation will allow the House Majority PAC to consolidate resources into battlegrounds it still considers winnable, which includes some districts Trump won by double digits in 2024. The group added at least $4.7 million across nearly two dozen districts over two days, according to Axios.

The House reallocation follows a Politico report earlier this month finding that Democrats also https://www.politico.com/news/2026/10/08/senate-democrat-money-kansas-mississippi-florida-01111430 to expand their Senate map. According to that report, the party has barely enough money to fund its main Senate targets in Maine, North Carolina, Ohio, Iowa and Alaska, the states where Democrats see Republicans as most vulnerable.

A handful of polls have shown Democratic candidates competitive in deep-red states including Kansas, Florida, South Carolina and Mississippi, prompting candidates there to press for more late-stage money. But those groups say they "don't have enough cash to protect the core battleground and also make significant investments beyond it," according to Politico.

The Florida reductions drew criticism from Phil Gardner, a senior adviser at Blue Dog Action, a centrist group backing Dalton.

"I'm not sure what HMP was thinking here," Gardner said.

Gardner pointed to the DCCC's tied poll and to House Minority Whip Katherine Clark's plan to campaign in the district Wednesday. "The rest of the party is not triaging this seat," he said.

Gardner said he agrees with "95% of the decisions HMP's made this cycle." He also called it "bonkers they're dumping so much money" into Maine's 2nd District "while leaving one of the party's best recruits high and dry in Florida." Maine also appears on Politico's list of the party's main Senate targets.

Blue Dog Action spent nearly $500,000 to help Dalton win his primary. The group has put no money into the general election.

"We're focused on taking back the House," HMP spokesperson CJ Warnke said in response to Gardner.

Gardner said he expects HMP to revisit the Florida decision before Election Day. "I'm confident they'll rethink and make the right decision for the final week," he said. "Bale can win and hold that seat with everyone's help."

Democrats enter the final stretch of the midterms trying to manage limited resources while the GOP has a lot more working for it. Republicans have the backing of cash-rich outside groups, chiefly President Trump's MAGA Inc. and Elon Musk's America PAC, which could make the difference in races Democrats had thought they could flip.

Chaz Molder is running for election to the U.S. House to represent Tennessee's 5th Congressional District.

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Sun, 10/25/2026 - 19:30

https://www.zerohedge.com/political/democrats-retreat-house-races-they-hoped-flip

Trump Says He Might Support Student Loan Interest Cap Trump Says ...

2026-10-25T23:00:00Z

Trump Says He Might Support Student Loan Interest Cap

Trump Says He Might Support Student Loan Interest Cap

https://www.theepochtimes.com/us/trump-says-he-might-support-student-loan-interest-cap-6108572?utm_source=partner&utm_campaign=ZeroHedge,

President Donald Trump said on Saturday that he might support a bill capping federal student loan interest at 2.5 percent. Interest rates for newer federal student loans range from 6.52 percent to 9.07 percent, depending on the loan type.

President Donald Trump (L) speaks to reporters alongside First Lady Melania Trump after they cast their ballots during early voting in West Palm Beach, Fla., on Oct. 24, 2026. Alex Wong/Getty Images"President Trump said he will support capping federal student loan interest rates at 2.5%! This has been an issue that I've long championed in Congress," said Rep. Anna Paulina Luna (R-Fla.) in an X post on Saturday.

"Every American that decides to pursue higher education, especially in STEM, becomes an asset to our nation and gives us an edge on China."

Luna posted a video of Trump saying "he might" support an interest rate cap.

In June, Luna introduced a resolution asking the House to consider legislation to lower the interest rate on federal student loans to 2 percent.

The issue has been circulating in Congress for a while. Rep. Michael Lawler (R-N.Y.) introduced the Affordable Loans for Students bill in March 2025 that would lower the interest rate on student loans to 2 percent. It sits in the House Committee on Education and the Workforce.

Democrats introduced legislation in 2026 to eliminate interest on federal student loans.

Rep. Joe Courtney (D-Conn.) and Sen. Peter Welch (D-Vt.) reintroduced the Student Loan Interest Elimination Act on March 24 to eliminate interest on federal student loans, offering another approach to reducing borrowing costs.

Courtney said student debt affects 43 million borrowers.

The Act would let borrowers refinance current and future federal student loans at zero percent interest, according to a statement from Courtney's office.

Courtney said interest payments impose a substantial burden on borrowers already struggling with living expenses.

"At a time when Americans are experiencing a cost-of-living crisis, student loan repayment with interest adds a crushing burden to millions of middle-class student loan borrowers," he said in a statement.

In June, the Department of Education announced that 42.6 million people had federal student loans totaling $1.7 trillion. As of March 2026, about 9 million borrowers had $220 billion in outstanding federal student loans in default.

The Trump administration introduced two student loan repayment plans July 1 under the One Big Beautiful Bill Act.

The Repayment Assistance Plan bases monthly payments on income and reduces them by $50 for each dependent, according to the Department of Education.

The Trump administration agreed on Oct. 21 to dismiss two appeals seeking to reinstate restrictions on the Public Service Loan Forgiveness program, while a third appeal remained pending, according to court filings.

Federal judges in Massachusetts and Washington struck down an Education Department rule June 30 that would have excluded employers deemed to have a "substantial illegal purpose."

Nonprofit organizations, states and other challengers argued that the department exceeded its authority by imposing restrictions Congress had not authorized.

The federal student loan payment pause began March 13, 2020, during the COVID-19 pandemic, suspending payments and interest on eligible loans. After extensions under the Trump and Biden administrations, interest resumed Sept. 1, 2023. Most borrowers' payments became due again in October 2023, according to the Congressional Research Service.

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Sun, 10/25/2026 - 19:00

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Ottawa's Counter-Tariffs On US Costing Canadians $100 Million ...

2026-10-25T22:00:00Z

Ottawa's Counter-Tariffs On US Costing Canadians $100 Million Weekly, Economist Says

Ottawa's Counter-Tariffs On US Costing Canadians $100 Million Weekly, Economist Says

https://www.theepochtimes.com/world/ottawas-counter-tariffs-on-us-costing-canadians-100-million-weekly-economist-says-6108290?utm_source=partner&utm_campaign=ZeroHedge,

Canada's retaliatory tariffs on U.S. imports are costing consumers an estimated $100 million a week and raising prices by about 0.25 percent, an economist told MPs.

Trucks stop near the Peace Bridge US-Canada border crossing, on March 20, 2026, in Buffalo, N.Y. AP Photo/Yuki IwamuraUniversity of Calgary economics professor Trevor Tombe https://images.cpac.ca/in-committee-from-the-house-of-commons/episode/foreign-affairs-and-international-development--october-21-2026?id=b4676377-383c-4823-bb33-b39736f81f01before the House of Commons foreign affairs committee on Oct. 21 about the counter-tariffs that Ottawa imposed on $28 billion of American imports on Sept. 8, in a tit-for-tat response to American tariffs that took effect Aug. 22.

The retaliatory tariffs ranged from 15 percent on U.S. farm equipment and appliances to 25 percent on construction supplies and 50 percent on smartphones, furniture, aluminum, and steel.

Tombe told MPs that Ottawa's retaliatory tariffs cut half a percentage point from the disposable income of Canadians making under $30,000 a year and increased consumer prices "across the board" by roughly 0.25 percent, as first reported by Blacklock's Reporter.

"Just for consumers, not even for businesses, it's about $100 million per week of additional costs," he said.

"Those costs might be worth paying if one is making an argument that there are non-economic objectives that these tariffs achieve," he added. "I don't know what those might be. ... So, I'd say the economic case for retaliation is thin."

The federal government has said it is applying counter-tariffs on the United States to shield domestic producers amid U.S. tariffs, and to also apply pressure on the White House to remove its tariffs.

"We're also targeting products that will target states in the U.S.," Industry Minister Mélanie Joly said in August.

"We're being wise and strategic to put political pressure, and that's why we think it's the right thing to do right now."

Tombe said a better way to understand the U.S. tariffs is that they are really an "American domestic policy rather than a bilateral dispute with Canada." Furthermore, he said Ottawa's retaliation only adds costs for Canadian consumers, while its effect on American policy "appears to be quite limited."

He called the U.S. tariff increases "the largest trade policy change" in the country's 250-year history.

He said the average U.S. tariff globally was 2 percent in 2024, then it jumped to 30 percent in 2025 before falling to an average of 11 percent. He put the average U.S. tariff on Canadian goods at 8 percent, lower than rates faced by 93 other countries.

"So this may be less of a trade war with Canada than a fundamental change in how the United States runs its economy," Tombe said. He said a tariff essentially equals a domestic consumption tax plus a production subsidy of the same rate.

Tombe said Canada's 2025 retaliatory tariffs generated $4 billion in federal revenue over six months.

He added that it's difficult for a small country's tariffs to meaningfully affect the target country's economic costs, especially one as big as the United States.

"There's no evidence that the retaliation we've enacted has changed U.S. behavior," he told MPs.

Tombe said that "Canada faces something of a trilemma," since it wants to retaliate by targeting goods from politically important states, goods where Canadian companies are major buyers, and goods where Canada can easily substitute for other things.

"And doing all three is quite difficult," he said, noting that a tariff package meeting all those objectives would be roughly one-tenth the size of a full dollar-for-dollar retaliation.

Tombe also said Ottawa's counter-tariff package didn't actually follow through on dollar-for-dollar retaliation; instead, it was about 60 cents for every dollar.

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Sun, 10/25/2026 - 18:00

https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/ottawas-counter-tariffs-us-costing-canadians-100-million-weekly-economist-says

Ilhan Omar's Deleted 2013 Tweet Could Be Key Evidence In ...

2026-10-25T21:30:00Z

Ilhan Omar's Deleted 2013 Tweet Could Be Key Evidence In Federal Probe

Ilhan Omar's Deleted 2013 Tweet Could Be Key Evidence In Federal Probe

Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-Minn.) once posted a Father's Day message that appears to identify her father as "Nur Said," a name that closely matches that of her ex-husband, Ahmed Nur Said Elmi.

"Happy Father's Day to my aabo Nur Said, I am forever grateful to Allah for giving me the best father ..." Omar wrote in June 2013. She removed the post on the morning of Sept. 17, 2019.

Omar deleted the 2013 post six years later, and it has https://www.foxnews.com/politics/omars-deleted-tweet-clue-alleged-brother-marriage as federal investigators examine her identity and immigration records.

Federal agents searched Omar's Washington, D.C., home on Oct. 12 as part of a criminal investigation into possible false statements on her immigration and naturalization documents. Court records tied to the search warrant, first obtained by Fox News Digital, refer to the congresswoman as "Ilhan Nur Said Elmi, a.k.a. Ilhan Abdullahi Omar." The filing does not explain why it uses that name, and it does not show that she used a false identity.

The name Omar gave her father in the 2013 post, Nur Said, also appears in the name the federal filing now uses.

Two people familiar with the investigation told Fox News Digital that "Ilhan Nur Said Elmi" may be Omar's legal name, however, her office disputes that account.

Fox News Digital asked Omar on Friday for her real name. "Ilhan Abdullahi Omar, you know it," Omar said. "It's Ilhan Abdullahi Omar."

Other records list a different name for her father. A Congressional Black Caucus memorial post following his death in 2020 identified him as "Nur Omar Mohamed." Some reports, however, have used "Nur Said." In one example, Oxford University historian Mohamed Haji Ingiriis referred to him by that name in a New York Post https://nypost.com/2026/10/13/us-news/ilhan-omars-father-was-loyal-to-somali-dictator-misrepresented-himself-as-a-refugee-source/ about his alleged military service.

"He was a full colonel in Siad Barre's military regime," Ingiriis told The Post. "Ilhan's father was never an educator. Nur Said was a military officer who was loyal to the regime until the end. He was part and parcel of those who caused and created the mayhem they 'fled' to live comfortably in the United States."

Fox News has not independently confirmed whether the father's name is Nur Said Elmi Mohamed, as alleged, or Nur Omar Mohamed. Omar's office did not answer Fox News Digital's request for comment on the deleted post.

Nur died in June 2020 at age 67 from complications with COVID.

The Daily Caller first https://dailycallernewsfoundation.org/2019/09/17/ilhan-omar-deletes-2013-tweet-that-revealed-her-fathers-name-the-same-as-her-husbands/ on an archived copy of the post in 2019. Questions about Omar's immigration records first drew wide attention that same year.

A statement attributed to Omar's spokesperson has also circulated online again. It says "Nur Said" was her father's childhood nickname and that he maintained a public page under that name. According to the same statement, Omar deleted the tweet after her family received threats.

A spokesperson for Rep. Ilhan Omar sends me the following statement on her deleted tweet from 2013 https://t.co/JGshLtjdn0
— Jon Levine (@LevineJonathan) https://x.com/LevineJonathan/status/1174041052661133312?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw

Omar and her office have repeatedly denied that Elmi is her brother. She denies any wrongdoing and has described the federal probe as a political attack.

On Thursday, her spokesperson said that Omar has "repeatedly and unequivocally denied" what the spokesperson called a "baseless, disgusting conspiracy theory" that she married her brother.

However, Omar's https://www.zerohedge.com/political/not-my-knowledge-ilhan-omar-cant-quite-rule-out-marrying-her-brother-live-tv-and-trump undermined those denials. On Wednesday, during an interview with Chris Hayes on MS NOW, Hayes asked Omar whether her one-time husband might be a "distant relative."

"Not to my knowledge," Omar said.

Omar and Elmi divorced in 2017. She legally married Ahmed Hirsi in 2018.

The investigation now centers on what Omar stated on her federal immigration and naturalization paperwork. A former Minnesota federal immigration judge said that if investigators prove Omar knowingly used a false name on federal forms, she could face scrutiny under the federal false-statements law, 18 U.S.C. § 1001.

https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden
Sun, 10/25/2026 - 17:30

https://www.zerohedge.com/political/ilhan-omars-deleted-2013-tweet-could-be-key-evidence-federal-probe

House Dems Target Hegseth For Impeachment If They Win Midterms ...

2026-10-25T21:00:00Z

House Dems Target Hegseth For Impeachment If They Win Midterms

House Dems Target Hegseth For Impeachment If They Win Midterms

https://amgreatness.com/2026/10/24/house-dems-target-hegseth-for-impeachment-if-they-win-midterms/,

House Democrats are already plotting to impeach Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth if they regain control of Congress in November, making the Trump administration official a top target of their anticipated return to power.

While Democratic leaders have largely avoided discussing another impeachment of President Donald Trump, they have openly embraced efforts to remove Hegseth.

"One of the first things we're going to do in the majority, we're going to run Pete Hegseth out of town," House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, D-N.Y., declared during a Pennsylvania rally earlier this month.

https://www.wsj.com/politics/house-democrats-target-hegseth-for-impeachment-push-e851feb5, Democrats are preparing impeachment efforts both before the current Congress adjourns and next year, should they secure a House majority.

Rep. Pramila Jayapal, D-Wash., has accused Hegseth of being incompetent and corrupt, while Rep. Jared Huffman, D-Calif., described him as an extremist who should be removed.

The Pentagon has pushed back against the attacks.

Pentagon press secretary Kingsley Wilson defended Hegseth's leadership, saying the department remains united behind his agenda of strengthening America's military and ensuring troops have the resources necessary to succeed.

Democrats have criticized Hegseth over his handling of military operations against Iran, personnel changes and a 2025 incident involving sensitive military information shared through a Signal group chat.

However, the impeachment push is not exclusively Democratic.

Rep. Thomas Massie, R-Ky., a vocal opponent of American military intervention overseas, introduced impeachment articles against Hegseth in September, arguing that the administration's military operations against Iran were unlawful.

Massie plans to force a House vote when lawmakers return Nov. 9.

Republicans currently hold a narrow 219-214 House advantage, including an independent who caucuses with the GOP. Democrats would need additional Republican support to impeach Hegseth before the new Congress convenes.

Several Republicans, including Reps. Nancy Mace of South Carolina, Ralph Norman of South Carolina and Warren Davidson of Ohio, have indicated they oppose impeachment.

Even if Democrats regain the House and successfully impeach Hegseth, removing him would require a two-thirds majority in the Senate, an outcome widely considered unlikely.

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Sun, 10/25/2026 - 17:00

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/house-dems-target-hegseth-impeachment-if-they-win-midterms

Brazil Supreme Court Extends Voting By Two Hours At Socialist ...

2026-10-25T20:48:00Z

Brazil Supreme Court Extends Voting By Two Hours At Socialist Lula's Request

Brazil Supreme Court Extends Voting By Two Hours At Socialist Lula's Request

Summary:

- Brazilian Supreme Court Judge Extends Voting Time By Two Hours

- Brazil Runoff Enters Final Hour: Left-Right Showdown Could Reshape Latin America's Political Balance
Brazilian Supreme Court Judge Extends Voting Time By Two Hours

AFP News reports that a Brazilian Supreme Court judge extended voting nationwide by two hours after complaints that public transport problems had hindered access to polling stations.

Justice Cristiano Zanin ordered polling stations to remain open until 7 p.m. local time, or 6 p.m. in New York, following a request from President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva.

One key question is whether the additional voting window boosts turnout in Lula's favor. The transport complaints also raise questions about cheating.

Hyperliquid's Brazil ETF perpetual dropped 3.5% on the news.

Brazil Runoff Enters Final Hour: Left-Right Showdown Could Reshape Latin America's Political Balance

Brazilians began voting early Sunday in a presidential runoff, with right-wing Senator Flávio Bolsonaro and socialist President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva statistically tied. Bolsonaro won the first round at the start of the month.

Nearly 160 million people are eligible to vote today, with polling stations closing at 1600 ET. A last-minute AtlasIntel survey for Bloomberg, released Saturday, showed Bolsonaro leading Lula 51% to 49%, largely in line with other final polls. The survey's margin of error was 1 percentage point.

Regular readers will remember that polls showed Lula ahead going into the first round, but Bolsonaro finished ahead with 47.03% of valid votes to Lula's 45.16%.

Goldman's chief Latin America economist, Alberto Ramos, provides the latest in his https://marketdesk.ai/standalone/217nMEKIluJ (https://www.zerohedge.com/signup/professional-membership-year):

"The race has tightened considerably. Polls immediately after the first round gave conservative Bolsonaro a 4- to 5-point lead over left-wing incumbent President Lula in the October 25 runoff. His lead has since narrowed to 0 to 2.5 points, with one outlier, Vox, showing Lula slightly ahead. Prediction markets still favor Bolsonaro, but the odds are less lopsided than immediately after the first round."

Here is Goldman's poll-of-polls, which shows Bolsonaro's lead eroding in the final stretch (chart source: GS GIR):

And here is the full scorecard by pollster. Goldman's average still puts Bolsonaro ahead 51% to 49%, a 2-point lead right on the edge of most surveys' margin of error. Note how many arrows point down: in almost every poll, the senator's lead is smaller than it was in that pollster's previous survey.

https://polymarket.us/event/pres-bra-2026-10-04 gives Bolsonaro an 82% chance of winning the runoff, while Lula's odds are around 20%.

Post-Election Market Outlook:

- https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/photo-finish-brazil-votes-polls-tied-bettors-all-bolsonaro-and-market-priced-lula
UBS analyst Kyle Duca adds more color to FX impact on election results:

Trading and strategy see a wide two-way range for BRL around the presidential runoff, but distinguish between the likely FX and rates reactions in each outcome.

The FX trading desk sees a Lula win pushing USDBRL toward 5.40-5.45, where the move could run out of steam as higher rates bring the carry trade back into play and encourage USDBRL selling.

On a Flavio win, trading sees more of a rates story, with USDBRL likely moving toward 4.90-4.80 before interest to clean up emerges. A sharp rates rally and diminished carry could then leave FX consolidating around those levels.

FX Strategy sees USDBRL at 4.70-4.80 if Flavio wins 52%-48%, with less upside for BRL if the margin is below 1%. A Lula victory would put USDBRL at 5.30-5.50.

The "Bolsonaro trade" is already gaining momentum ahead of the runoff.

The black line, Hyperliquid's Brazil ETF perpetual, has surged to $45.16, about 6% above the iShares MSCI Brazil ETF (EWZ), which closed at $42.59 on Friday.

By this evening, Brazilian voters will decide whether to accelerate Latin America's rightward shift or extend a failed left-wing economic agenda that risks deeper deficits, a mounting debt pile, higher interest rates, more economic gloom, and faltering investor confidence. A Bolsonaro win would cement the continent's rightward shift.

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Sun, 10/25/2026 - 16:48

https://www.zerohedge.com/political/brazil-runoff-enters-final-hour-left-right-showdown-could-reshape-latin-americas

Trump's Reverse Nixon Strategy: Bring Russia In, Shut China ...

2026-10-25T20:10:00Z

Trump's Reverse Nixon Strategy: Bring Russia In, Shut China Out

Trump's Reverse Nixon Strategy: Bring Russia In, Shut China Out

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Trumps-Reverse-Nixon-Strategy-Bring-Russia-In-Shut-China-Out.html,

On October 9, hours after a phone call between President Trump and President Putin, the Treasury Department issued a six-month waiver allowing Russian diesel to be sold on the global market.

The stated aim is to bring down fuel prices before the November 3 midterms. But I believe the deal is more consequential than that. It fits a larger strategy: for the United States to control as much of the world's energy supply as possible, while denying it to its chief rival, China.

A pattern, not a one-off

The strategy began in Venezuela. Since US forces https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Oil-Markets-Brace-for-Supply-Squeeze-After-US-Captures-Nicols-Maduro.html President Maduro in January, Washington has effectively https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/US-Venezuela-Oil-Deal-Threatens-Chinas-Oil-Backed-Loans.html the country's oil exports, and shipments to China, once Venezuela's largest customer, have collapsed.

Iran came next. China was the largest buyer of Iranian oil, and with the Strait of Hormuz closed, Gulf and Iranian energy has been choked off from China and the rest of the world, sending prices soaring. The President now claims "total control" of the Strait. Whatever the truth of that claim, a closed Hormuz does exactly what the strategy requires: it starves China of Middle Eastern supply.

Russia is the next piece. With Gulf oil cut off, Russia has become China's major energy supplier. The diesel waiver is a first step toward easing sanctions on Russian energy, reversing that flow back toward the West, and bringing US oil companies back to tap Russia's vast reserves.

The pipeline question

The larger prize may be Russian gas for Europe. Reuters https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/us-russia-explore-gas-sale-europe-amid-ukraine-war-say-sources-2026-10-08/ that Washington and Moscow have discussed a role for a US investor in the Nord Stream pipelines, which were sabotaged in 2022 and lie damaged on the floor of the Baltic Sea.

Consider what US ownership of the pipeline would offer. In my reading, it would provide a fig leaf enabling Europe to resume buying Russian gas without appearing to capitulate. A pipeline is of little use without gas to put in it, and without that gas Europe's economy would likely stay depressed. Energy use and economic growth have historically moved closely together, which is why the stakes are so high.

Next would come the return of US oil companies that were forced out of Russia by post-2022 sanctions, along with joint ventures in the Russian Arctic. Moscow, for its part, would have to scale back its military and intelligence support for Iran.

Nixon's play, in reverse

In this effort, Trump appears to be taking a page from Nixon and Kissinger, who https://nsarchive2.gwu.edu/NSAEBB/NSAEBB66/ relations with China in the 1970s to exploit its rift with the Soviet Union. This would run the play in reverse: pry Russia away from China.

Would Moscow go along? Russia has long been frustrated as the junior partner in the relationship. It hoped for an alliance of equals, military and economic, that never materialized. It watched China pour billions into countries like Pakistan as part of an effort to rebuild the ancient Silk Road, while promised projects for Russia remained more talk than action. China has also delayed Russia's proposed second gas pipeline for over ten years. Return to the European market, with hundreds of millions of customers, is an offer Russia could hardly refuse.

The price would be ending the Ukraine war on terms less favorable than Moscow has sought. I expect marginal concessions at the edges of its conquests, which Trump would promote as a historic achievement in his quest for the Nobel Prize.

President Zelensky will vigorously oppose the plan and appeal to his European allies. But Trump's recent comments suggest little patience with the Ukrainian President, and I expect Washington to press Kyiv by reducing military and intelligence aid.

What it means at home and in Europe

The costs of this strategy are immediate: higher energy prices, worldwide inflation, and continued emissions. In Europe, energy bills driven up first by the loss of cheap Russian gas and now by Hormuz's closure are feeding public anger and the rise of right-wing parties. In the United States, affordability may cost Republicans control of Congress.

After World War II, the United States rebuilt Europe through the Marshall Plan, understanding that a broken Europe would leave a gaping hole in the world economy. Today Europe needs cheap energy to heat homes, cook food, and power its utilities and industry. Without it, the continent risks becoming a drain on the world economy.

If Democrats win Congress, would they oppose a plan to control world energy markets and deny energy to China? Doubtful. It was the Obama administration that launched the "Pivot to Asia," sending naval vessels through the Taiwan Strait under freedom-of-navigation operations while deepening ties with India, Japan, Australia, and South Korea to constrain China's rise. If there is one thing the two parties agree on, it is that China is the greatest threat to US influence in the world.

The bottom line

The aim, as I read it, is to constrain China's economic growth and influence while enhancing US power and aiding Europe's recovery. Whether Moscow will trade its partnership with Beijing for a seat at Europe's table is the question to watch.

https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden
Sun, 10/25/2026 - 16:10

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/trumps-reverse-nixon-strategy-bring-russia-shut-china-out

Mamdani Drops Spanish-Language Video Telling Migrants To Keep The ...

2026-10-25T19:45:00Z

Mamdani Drops Spanish-Language Video Telling Migrants To Keep The Door Shut On ICE, Sparking Cries Of 'Sedition'

Mamdani Drops Spanish-Language Video Telling Migrants To Keep The Door Shut On ICE, Sparking Cries Of 'Sedition'

New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani posted a Spanish-language video on Oct. 23 walking residents through what to do if immigration agents come to their door or stop them on the street, and Republicans https://www.mediaite.com/media/news/sedition-mamdani-ignites-absolute-fury-in-maga-world-with-spanish-language-video-on-ice/ within hours. The clip went up on Instagram and X, https://www.latintimes.com/mamdanis-spanish-video-immigrant-rights-ice-600540 Latin Times, and reaffirms the city's sanctuary policies.

Mamdani told viewers that ICE needs a judicial warrant signed by a judge to enter a home, and that without one they can keep the door closed. In Mediaite's translation, he tells them to look for the words "United States District Court" and a judge's signature, and to say, "I do not consent to your entry." If agents stop someone on the street, he says to ask, "Am I free to go?" He also urges viewers to speak with a lawyer before signing anything or making decisions about their immigration case.

Latin Times adds that the mayor says agents may misrepresent themselves or show official-looking papers that are not a court order, that everyone has the right to remain silent regardless of status, and that bystanders may film agents in public as long as they do not obstruct an arrest.

🚨 WTF?! Zohran Mamdani just put out a video IN SPANISH to COACH illegals how to evade ICE

This guy is OPENLY assisting invaders who are committing FEDERAL CRIMES

He needs his security clearance revoked IMMEDIATELY. https://t.co/WjOVTHifDY
— Nick Sortor (@nicksortor) https://x.com/nicksortor/status/2113678991454351407?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw

Sen. Rick Scott (R-FL) called it "unbelievable" and wrote that the mayor "is openly helping illegal aliens evade @ICEgov and undermine the law," per Mediaite. Rep. Nick LaLota (R-NY) said the mayor was using taxpayer resources to tell people in Spanish how to dodge accountability. Sen. Mike Lee (R-UT) wrote: "At no point in this video is anyone urged to abide by the laws of the United States." Commentator DC_Draino called the video "sedition," and Sortor, whose post is above, demanded the mayor's "security clearance" be revoked; none of the coverage says Mamdani holds one.

Immigrant advocacy groups, which Latin Times does not name, praised the release, especially its delivery in Spanish. Neither outlet reports a statement from the mayor's office beyond the video itself, and neither reports a response from the Department of Homeland Security.

It is not Mamdani's first such video. In December 2025, as mayor-elect, he https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2025/dec/8/zohran-mamdani-video-teaches-immigrants-rights-ice-encounters-new/ a similar rundown of residents' rights during ICE encounters, saying agents can lie and that people may film them. Then-DHS Secretary https://www.foxnews.com/media/noem-says-zohran-mamdani-could-violating-constitution-advice-evading-ice-agents said at the time that Mamdani, if he were mayor, "could be violating the Constitution" by advising people how to evade law enforcement.

The fight with Washington has sharpened since. After an ICE officer shot a Dominican man during an arrest attempt in the Bronx's Marble Hill on Oct. 8, Mamdani called ICE "rotten to its core" and said he had spent two hours on the phone with President Trump and Homeland Security Secretary Markwayne Mullin trying to resolve the case, https://newschannel9.com/news/nation-world/mamdani-calls-ice-rotten-to-its-core-after-agent-shot-illegal-immigrant-in-nyc-president-trump-dhs-markwayne-mullin-bronx-dominican-republic-jessica-tisch a syndicated news report. Mullin replied that Mamdani wanted DHS to walk away, and DHS said the man has ties to the Trinitarios gang, a claim the reporting does not independently verify. As we https://www.zerohedge.com/political/judge-bars-deportation-illegal-immigrant-shot-ice-new-york, a judge later barred that man's deportation.

The city has also won a round in court. As we https://www.zerohedge.com/political/nyc-sanctuary-laws-survive-judge-rules-feds-cant-force-city-help-ice on Oct. 16, a judge ruled that the federal government cannot force New York City to help ICE, leaving its sanctuary laws standing.

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Sun, 10/25/2026 - 15:45

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