Nostr notes by Jason Beets

President Trump’s first impeachment was for withholding ...

2026-10-30T03:18:15Z

In reply to nevent1q…mnsp
_________________________

President Trump’s first impeachment was for withholding military aid to Ukraine to pressure the country to investigate Joe and Hunter Biden, which would benefit Trump in the 2020 presidential campaign.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2019/09/25/us/politics/trump-ukraine-transcript.html

14/x

#Ukraine #Trump #Biden #Impeachment #USPol #Politics #News

In October 2019, Roger Marshall was among a group of House ...

2026-10-30T03:13:22Z

In reply to nevent1q…yfq5
_________________________

In October 2019, Roger Marshall was among a group of House Republicans who stormed and disrupted a closed-door hearing that was part of the investigation that led to President Trump’s first impeachment.

“This whole thing is a sham,” Marshall said. “The people of Kansas are sick and tired of these impeachment hearings. We have impeachment fatigue.”

https://web.archive.org/web/20191024165141/https://www.kansascity.com/news/local/news-columns-blogs/the-buzz/article236572813.html

13/x

#Kansas #Trump #Impeachment #USPol #Politics #News

I recorded videos of Roger Marshall when I was a reporter at the ...

2026-10-30T03:08:12Z

In reply to nevent1q…swy3
_________________________

I recorded videos of Roger Marshall when I was a reporter at the Salina Journal.

A playlist of those videos are available on my YouTube channel.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vpj34Gq4jiI&list=PLA9Lr48dFA2g1EPbNuscB5I-zNc-QSesB

12/x

I covered Roger Marshall during his time in the US House, when I ...

2026-10-30T03:06:24Z

In reply to nevent1q…f43l
_________________________

I covered Roger Marshall during his time in the US House, when I was a reporter for the Salina Journal in 2018 and 2019.

At the time, I was an objective reporter, and I did my best to cover Marshall fairly.

Marshall always treated me with respect, as a member of the local news media.
But even back then, I strongly disagreed with Marshall’s politics.

11/x

I have voted against Roger Marshall every time he's been on ...

2026-10-30T03:04:16Z

In reply to nevent1q…pcm5
_________________________

I have voted against Roger Marshall every time he's been on my ballot.

I lived and voted in Missouri in 2016.
I voted against Roger Marshall in 2018, when he ran for reelection to the US House.

I voted against Roger Marshall in 2020, when was first elected to the US Senate.
I voted against Roger Marshall this year, when he ran for reelection to the US Senate.

10/x

Marshall is running for reelection to the Senate this year. 9/x

2026-10-30T02:56:55Z

In reply to nevent1q…qyl7
_________________________

Marshall is running for reelection to the Senate this year.

9/x

Roger Marshall (R) was first elected to the US Senate in 2020, ...

2026-10-30T02:55:58Z

In reply to nevent1q…w6zx
_________________________

Roger Marshall (R) was first elected to the US Senate in 2020, when he ran against Barbara Bollier (D).

Marshall won by 11.4%.

8/x

#Kansas #Senate #Elections #News #Politics #USPol

Marshall was first elected to the US House in 2016 in the Kansas ...

2026-10-30T02:54:21Z

In reply to nevent1q…egee
_________________________

Marshall was first elected to the US House in 2016 in the Kansas First Congressional District.

He was reelected in 2018.

7/x

#Kansas #Politics #USPol #Elections #News

Roger Marshall is a scandal-plagued Conservative Republican, who ...

2026-10-30T02:52:36Z

In reply to nevent1q…p2g6
_________________________

Roger Marshall is a scandal-plagued Conservative Republican, who is an embarrassment to the State of Kansas.

6/x

#Kansas #Senate #Politics #USPol #Elections #News

Adam Hamilton (D) has a strong policy platform. He supports ...

2026-10-30T02:51:44Z

In reply to nevent1q…avk3
_________________________

Adam Hamilton (D) has a strong policy platform.

He supports expanding Medicare drug price negotiation, reversing cuts to Medicaid, restoring Affordable Care Act subsidies, and protecting rural hospitals.

He also opposes tariffs, wants to ban Wall Street investors from buying single family homes, expand Medicare to cover vision and dental, and require data centers to pay their fair share of electricity costs.

https://jasonbeets.blogspot.com/2026/07/the-kansas-democratic-senate-primary.html

5/x

#Kansas #Politics #Senate #Elections #News #USPol

Nonetheless, Democrat Adam Hamilton (D) leads the Meticulous ...

2026-10-30T02:42:50Z

In reply to nevent1q…y6je
_________________________

Nonetheless, Democrat Adam Hamilton (D) leads the Meticulous Musings polling average by 1.4%.

4/x

#Kansas #Politics #Senate #USPol #Elections #News

The Republican candidate has won each of the 7 most recent Senate ...

2026-10-30T02:40:50Z

In reply to nevent1q…nvc7
_________________________

The Republican candidate has won each of the 7 most recent Senate elections in Kansas by more than 10%.

3/x

#Kansas #Senate #Politics #USPol #Elections #News

Despite all odds, Kansas has a competitive Senate Race this year. ...

2026-10-30T02:39:40Z

In reply to nevent1q…ngu6
_________________________

Despite all odds, Kansas has a competitive Senate Race this year.
Kansas last elected a Democrat to the Senate in 1932, which was 94 years ago.

https://jasonbeets.blogspot.com/2026/04/how-competitive-is-kansas.html

2/x

#Kansas #Senate #Politics #USPol #Elections #News

Senator Roger Marshall (R) is running for reelection against ...

2026-10-30T02:37:33Z

Senator Roger Marshall (R) is running for reelection against Methodist Pastor Adam Hamilton (D) in the Kansas Senate Race.

1/x

#Kansas #Politics #USPol #Elections #News #Senate

Democrat Peggy Flanagan's lead in the Minnesota Senate Race ...

2026-10-29T04:55:58Z

In reply to nevent1q…6vgy
_________________________

Democrat Peggy Flanagan's lead in the Minnesota Senate Race has risen from D+3.4 to D+5.1 in the Real Clear Politics polling average.

26/x

#Minnesota #Senate #USPol #Elections #News #Iowa #Nebraska #Kansas #Alaska #Maine #Texas #Michigan #Ohio #Georgia

Democrat David Crowley's lead in the Wisconsin Governor Race ...

2026-10-29T04:52:08Z

In reply to nevent1q…fn4v
_________________________

Democrat David Crowley's lead in the Wisconsin Governor Race has risen from D+3.5 to D+5.0 in the Real Clear Politics polling average.

25/x

#Wisconsin #Politics #USPol #Elections #News #Governor #Nevada #Georgia #Ohio #Iowa #Michigan #Texas #Kansas #Florida

has created a model that predicts every 2026 House, Senate, and ...

2026-10-29T04:34:34Z

In reply to nevent1q…8j0z
_________________________

has created a model that predicts every 2026 House, Senate, and Governor Race.

The model is free to use, and is not behind a paywall.

Check it out.

https://www.callthemap.com/

24/x

#Politics #USPol #Elections #News #Forecasting #Predictions

This is the start of my next general purpose politics thread. ...

2026-10-29T04:32:24Z

In reply to nevent1q…9r47
_________________________

This is the start of my next general purpose politics thread.

23/x

I also don't have any inane Republican contributors on my ...

2026-10-28T20:07:46Z

In reply to nevent1q…mh22
_________________________

I also don't have any inane Republican contributors on my payroll.

That alone puts Meticulous Musings leagues above other news outlets.

22/x

If these principles sound good to you, and they reflect the kind ...

2026-10-28T17:01:19Z

In reply to nevent1q…x70m
_________________________

If these principles sound good to you, and they reflect the kind of political analysis that you like to see, consider supporting my work on Patreon.

Times are tough, so I understand if you don't have disposable income right now, I know I sure don't.

https://www.patreon.com/cw/MeticulousMusings

21/x

#News #Philosophy #Politics #USPol #Elections #Patreon

My political analysis is available without distracting ads or ...

2026-10-28T16:58:32Z

In reply to nevent1q…308c
_________________________

My political analysis is available without distracting ads or obstructive paywalls.

20/x

Fifth Principle: "Ads suck. Paywalls suck. News should be ...

2026-10-28T16:56:58Z

In reply to nevent1q…ldup
_________________________

Fifth Principle:

"Ads suck. Paywalls suck. News should be available and accessible to everyone."

19/x

While I don't know what funding models I might use in the ...

2026-10-28T16:53:33Z

In reply to nevent1q…4ve8
_________________________

While I don't know what funding models I might use in the future, here is one more maxim that applies to my coverage for now.

18/x

The 2028 Presidential Race is important, but we will have the ...

2026-10-28T16:52:11Z

In reply to nevent1q…20al
_________________________

The 2028 Presidential Race is important, but we will have the entirety of 2027 to discuss the Democratic and Republican primary candidates before a single vote is cast in 2028.

The Midterms are happening now, and they deserve our attention.

There are plenty of interesting, competitive, and important races this year.

Our daydreaming and infighting over the next presidential race can wait until the Midterms are over.

17/x

Fourth Principle: "The Midterm Elections are Important. The ...

2026-10-28T16:49:10Z

In reply to nevent1q…unh9
_________________________

Fourth Principle:

"The Midterm Elections are Important.

The 2028 Presidential Race can Wait."

16/x

It is also important to do horse race coverage well. I have never ...

2026-10-28T16:47:48Z

In reply to nevent1q…4lrf
_________________________

It is also important to do horse race coverage well.

I have never focused my analysis on the results of a single poll.

Far too often, analysts get worked up about individual outlier polls.

I have always focused on polling averages.

15/x

Horse race coverage is important, but covering policy debates is ...

2026-10-28T16:45:57Z

In reply to nevent1q…6gy8
_________________________

Horse race coverage is important, but covering policy debates is also important.

"Who will win?" matters. But so does, "Who should win?"

14/x

There is a simple explanation for this. Horse race coverage is ...

2026-10-28T16:44:10Z

In reply to nevent1q…8vy0
_________________________

There is a simple explanation for this.

Horse race coverage is way easier to produce than policy coverage, which requires time, research, and intellectual rigor.

13/x

A common complaint of news coverage is that it focuses too much ...

2026-10-28T16:38:44Z

In reply to nevent1q…39ue
_________________________

A common complaint of news coverage is that it focuses too much on the political horse race, rather than on covering policy.

12/x

Third Principle: "Substantive policy coverage and horse race ...

2026-10-28T16:37:22Z

In reply to nevent1q…q3w4
_________________________

Third Principle:

"Substantive policy coverage and horse race coverage are both important."

11/x

Donald Trump is an attention vampire. He steals and directs your ...

2026-10-28T16:36:10Z

In reply to nevent1q…s7na
_________________________

Donald Trump is an attention vampire.

He steals and directs your attention more effectively than any human being on the planet.

It's important to cover Trump's wrongdoing.

It's easy to pay attention to Trump, but it can be difficult to divert your attention away from Trump to anything else, even if those other things as also important.

10/x

Voters deserve information that allows them to make informed ...

2026-10-28T16:33:15Z

In reply to nevent1q…g2gz
_________________________

Voters deserve information that allows them to make informed decisions about everything on their ballots.

State and local governments make important decisions that influence people's lives. We need to ensure we elect good people to state and local positions, which can be difficult if we don't discuss and cover these races.

9/x

Coverage and discussion of American politics is overwhelmingly ...

2026-10-28T16:29:26Z

In reply to nevent1q…el25
_________________________

Coverage and discussion of American politics is overwhelmingly dominated by the politics of the American Presidency.

Obviously, presidential politics are incredibly important.

But elections for other positions matter, as well.

8/x

Second Principle: "Down Ballot Races Matter. State and Local ...

2026-10-28T16:28:05Z

In reply to nevent1q…70uf
_________________________

Second Principle:

"Down Ballot Races Matter.

State and Local Races Matter."

7/x

I am not subject to these pressures, and I can call out this ...

2026-10-28T16:27:19Z

In reply to nevent1q…237e
_________________________

I am not subject to these pressures, and I can call out this asymmetry of responsibility for America's problems, in a way that reporters employed by legacy institutions can't or won't.

My approach isn't necessarily best suited for every news organization, but I believe it serves me well.

6/x

Reporters, and the legacy institutions that employ them, may ...

2026-10-28T16:24:46Z

In reply to nevent1q…y6dv
_________________________

Reporters, and the legacy institutions that employ them, may legitimately fear retaliation from an authoritarian president, or be influenced by financial pressures to advance a narrative of false balance between the major US political parties.

Other reporters may legitimately want to maintain access to elected officials so they can effectively continue their reporting.

5/x

Treating Republicans and Democrats as if they are equally ...

2026-10-28T16:21:15Z

In reply to nevent1q…0l5g
_________________________

Treating Republicans and Democrats as if they are equally blameworthy for these problems obscures the truth, instead of revealing it.

4/x

Far too often, in the name of objectivity and neutrality, legacy ...

2026-10-28T16:20:10Z

In reply to nevent1q…kqlr
_________________________

Far too often, in the name of objectivity and neutrality, legacy news organizations treat the Republican and Democratic Parties as if they are equally guilty of creating the problems that underlie our politics.

When in reality, Republicans are way worse in almost every conceivable way, not just on policy, but regarding corruption, abuses of power, and authoritarian actions, as well.

3/x

First Principle: "Truth, Accuracy, and Fairness Matter. ...

2026-10-28T16:16:57Z

In reply to nevent1q…m9zs
_________________________

First Principle:

"Truth, Accuracy, and Fairness Matter.

Objectivity and Neutrality Don't."

2/x

My political analysis for the general election is in full swing. ...

2026-10-28T16:14:35Z

My political analysis for the general election is in full swing.

I wrote a few principles that reflect the attitudes that guide my political coverage.

1/x

I strongly endorse Jennifer Day (D) for Kansas Secretary of ...

2026-10-23T01:31:47Z

In reply to nevent1q…vgtc
_________________________

I strongly endorse Jennifer Day (D) for Kansas Secretary of State.

Let’s vote in large numbers to stop a conspiracy theorist from being elected to oversee Kansas elections.

19/x

#Kansas #Politics #USPol #Elections #News

Voting in large numbers is how you win elections legitimately, ...

2026-10-23T01:31:06Z

In reply to nevent1q…qls5
_________________________

Voting in large numbers is how you win elections legitimately, not how elections are stolen.

Kansas deserves a Secretary of State who can tell the difference.

18/x

#Kansas #Politics #Elections #News #Voting

In 2024, Pat Proctor spoke at a forum where he discussed his ...

2026-10-23T01:30:08Z

In reply to nevent1q…sunm
_________________________

In 2024, Pat Proctor spoke at a forum where he discussed his visits to polling places prior to the Aug. 2022 election.

“There’s all these women, 20- to 30-year-old women who, you know, that you never saw at the polls before, and it’s like a long line, got a long line, and they’re all there to vote, and it’s just the – it’s they’re stealing it fair and square.”

https://kansasreflector.com/2025/06/13/kansas-republican-exploits-fear-of-imaginary-axis-of-ballot-harvesting-to-gain-political-advantage/

17/x

#Kansas #Politics #Abortion

In August 2022, Kansas voters decisively rejected the proposed ...

2026-10-23T01:27:06Z

In reply to nevent1q…7lqw
_________________________

In August 2022, Kansas voters decisively rejected the proposed amendment, 59% to 41%.

https://jasonbeets.blogspot.com/2024/08/republicans-chip-away-at-abortion.html

16/x

#Kansas #Politics #Abortion

In January 2021, Pat Proctor (R) voted in favor of a state ...

2026-10-23T01:25:57Z

In reply to nevent1q…n32u
_________________________

In January 2021, Pat Proctor (R) voted in favor of a state constitutional amendment that would give the Kansas Legislature the legal authority to ban abortion in the state.

Jennifer Day (D) voted against the amendment.

https://kslegislature.gov/li_2022/b2021_22/measures/vote_view/je_20210122113106_318542/

15/x

#Kansas #Politics #Abortion

I discussed the draconian anti-trans law in an article I wrote ...

2026-10-23T01:19:34Z

In reply to nevent1q…0l6n
_________________________

I discussed the draconian anti-trans law in an article I wrote for my blog, Meticulous Musings.

https://jasonbeets.blogspot.com/2026/07/protect-kansas-supreme-court-vote-no-on.html

14/x

#Kansas #Politics #USPol #Elections #News #Trans #Transgender

Proctor also voted for a law that prevents transgender Kansans ...

2026-10-23T01:17:54Z

In reply to nevent1q…q5un
_________________________

Proctor also voted for a law that prevents transgender Kansans from obtaining identity documents that reflect their gender identity, and makes it illegal for them to use certain restrooms and locker rooms.

https://kslegislature.gov/b2025_26/vote/?apn=b2025_26/year2/house/legislative_days/day027_20260218/vote_records/0132_SB244.odt

13/x

#Kansas #Trans #LGBT #Transgender #Rights

Proctor has voted against Trans Rights in the Kansas Legislature. ...

2026-10-23T01:16:19Z

In reply to nevent1q…jk8l
_________________________

Proctor has voted against Trans Rights in the Kansas Legislature.

He voted for a Transgender Sports Ban.

https://kslegislature.gov/b2023_24/vote/?apn=b2023_24/year1/house/legislative_days/day057_20230405/vote_records/0263_HB2238.odt

12/x

#Kansas #Politics #Trans #Sports

Kansas Reflector: "Proctor frequently repeats the phrase on ...

2026-10-23T01:12:49Z

In reply to nevent1q…gx6m
_________________________

Kansas Reflector:

"Proctor frequently repeats the phrase on the campaign trail, and used it in a fundraising message where he suggested a new law could be used to bring criminal or civil charges against Kansas Reflector.”

11/x

Kansas Reflector: "As Kansas Rep. Pat Proctor launched his ...

2026-10-23T01:12:08Z

In reply to nevent1q…d6mv
_________________________

Kansas Reflector:

"As Kansas Rep. Pat Proctor launched his campaign to oversee state elections, he honed in on a signature phrase that would serve his interest of dismissing critics — and reporting by Kansas Reflector — while appealing to far-right voters.

"His ambiguous 'axis of ballot harvesting' serves as a catchall for anyone who challenges his false claims about the hazards of early voting, and signals a vast make-believe conspiracy by foreign nationals to undermine elections."

10/x

The Kansas Reflector, one of the best news organizations covering ...

2026-10-23T01:10:47Z

In reply to nevent1q…dvav
_________________________

The Kansas Reflector, one of the best news organizations covering Kansas Politics, described how Proctor uses dishonest rhetoric to spread unfounded fears about voter fraud.

https://kansasreflector.com/2025/06/13/kansas-republican-exploits-fear-of-imaginary-axis-of-ballot-harvesting-to-gain-political-advantage/

9/x

#Kansas #Politics #USPol #Elections #News

Proctor and his wife owned a restaurant that was fined $93,000 ...

2026-10-23T01:09:30Z

In reply to nevent1q…rh7k
_________________________

Proctor and his wife owned a restaurant that was fined $93,000 for failing to comply with federal wage and overtime laws.

https://kansasreflector.com/2026/10/08/kansas-gop-candidate-for-secretary-of-state-fined-93000-for-breaking-federal-labor-law/

8/x

#Kansas #Politics #USPol #Elections #News

There are many indications that Pat Proctor (R) would make a ...

2026-10-23T01:08:25Z

In reply to nevent1q…u6tr
_________________________

There are many indications that Pat Proctor (R) would make a terrible Secretary of State.

7/x

Day worked as an election worker for seven years, and volunteered ...

2026-10-23T01:07:45Z

In reply to nevent1q…uekn
_________________________

Day worked as an election worker for seven years, and volunteered with the League of Women Voters.

Day also built a small real estate investment firm and founded an interior design company.

I discussed Jennifer Day in an article I wrote about the Democratic Primary for Kansas Secretary of State.

https://jasonbeets.blogspot.com/2026/06/experience-is-key-difference-in-kansas.html

6/x

#Kansas #Politics #USPol #Elections #News

Jennifer Day represented Dist. 48, located in Johnson County, in ...

2026-10-23T01:06:38Z

In reply to nevent1q…wcz2
_________________________

Jennifer Day represented Dist. 48, located in Johnson County, in the Kansas House, from June 2020 to June 2021.

5/x

Pat Proctor represents Dist. 41, located in Leavenworth County, ...

2026-10-23T01:03:27Z

In reply to nevent1q…wf4s
_________________________

Pat Proctor represents Dist. 41, located in Leavenworth County, in the Kansas House.
Proctor is a retired US Army Colonel.

4/x

The Kansas Secretary of State runs an office that administers ...

2026-10-23T01:01:53Z

In reply to nevent1q…ajjp
_________________________

The Kansas Secretary of State runs an office that administers elections in Kansas, collects business records, registers lobbyists, and produces official publications for the state of Kansas.

3/x

The election is for an open position, because incumbent Secretary ...

2026-10-23T01:01:16Z

In reply to nevent1q…y3a9
_________________________

The election is for an open position, because incumbent Secretary of State Scott Schwab (R) ran for Kansas Governor this year, and he was among the losing candidates in the Republican Primary.

https://sos.ks.gov/elections/26elec/2026-Primary-Election-Official-Vote-Totals.pdf

2/x

#Kansas #Politics #USPol #Elections #News

State Representative Pat Proctor (R) is running against former ...

2026-10-23T00:59:44Z

State Representative Pat Proctor (R) is running against former State Representative Jennifer Day (D) for Kansas Secretary of State.

1/x

#Kansas #Elections #SecretaryOfState

Here is an updated map showing the Senate Races I consider to be ...

2026-09-22T21:41:57Z

In reply to nevent1q…tvyn
_________________________

Here is an updated map showing the Senate Races I consider to be competitive.

58/x

#Senate #Forecast #USPol #Politics #Elections #News

I have established initial race ratings for Senate races in New ...

2026-09-22T19:58:54Z

In reply to nevent1q…npwy
_________________________

I have established initial race ratings for Senate races in New Hampshire and South Carolina.

I consider the New Hampshire Senate Race to be Solidly Democratic.

I consider the South Carolina Senate Race to be Likely Republican.

57/x

#NewHampshire #SouthCarolina #Politics #USPol #Elections #News

Josh Turek is a wheelchair basketball paralympian, who serves in ...

2026-09-22T19:56:43Z

In reply to nevent1q…z5se
_________________________

Josh Turek is a wheelchair basketball paralympian, who serves in the Iowa House, the lower chamber of the Iowa Legislature.

You can read about Josh Turek's fascinating life story on Meticulous Musings.

https://jasonbeets.blogspot.com/2026/05/a-fascinating-iowa-senate-race.html

56/x

#Iowa #Senate #Politics #USPol #Elections #News

Democrat Josh Turek has taken the lead in the Real Clear Politics ...

2026-09-22T19:53:22Z

In reply to nevent1q…tlr0
_________________________

Democrat Josh Turek has taken the lead in the Real Clear Politics polling average in the Iowa Senate Race.

55/x

#Senate #Polling #Politics #USPol #Elections #News

Darline Graham (R) leads the polling average by 7.5%. That's ...

2026-09-22T05:47:38Z

In reply to nevent1q…2fyh
_________________________

Darline Graham (R) leads the polling average by 7.5%.

That's a fairly comfortable lead, but if the blue wave turns into a blue tsunami, South Carolina could be a state to watch.

54/x

#SouthCarolina #Senate #Polling #USPol #Politics #News

I calculated a polling average for the South Carolina Senate ...

2026-09-22T05:44:09Z

In reply to nevent1q…agxs
_________________________

I calculated a polling average for the South Carolina Senate Race.

The New York Times lists two polls that were conducted after Darline Graham won the Special Election Republican Primary Runoff on Aug. 25 to replace Lindsey Graham as the Republican Nominee, following his sudden and unexpected death.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/polls/south-carolina-us-senate-election-polls-2026.html

53/x

#SouthCarolina #Senate #Politics #USPol #News

Democrat Keisha Lance Bottom's advantage in the Georgia ...

2026-09-21T17:59:59Z

In reply to nevent1q…9qrt
_________________________

Democrat Keisha Lance Bottom's advantage in the Georgia Governor's Race has fallen from D+1.6 to D+0.9 in the Real Clear Politics polling average.

52/x

#Georgia #Nevada #Ohio #Wisconsin #Iowa #Michigan #Governor #Politics #USPol #Polling

Republican Byron Donalds's advantage in the Florida ...

2026-09-20T16:32:19Z

In reply to nevent1q…pztq
_________________________

Republican Byron Donalds's advantage in the Florida Governor's Race has fallen from R+5.0 to R+3.7 in the Real Clear Politics polling average.

Incumbent Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) is term-limited and ineligible to run for reelection.

Therefore, the election is for an open seat.

51/x

#Texas #Florida #Governor #Politics #USPol #Elections

I consider the Ohio Senate Race to be the Tipping Point Race for ...

2026-09-20T03:16:53Z

In reply to nevent1q…dl6d
_________________________

I consider the Ohio Senate Race to be the Tipping Point Race for Senate Control.

50/x

Sherrod Brown (D) leads in all four polls that Real Clear ...

2026-09-20T02:53:20Z

In reply to nevent1q…mh6h
_________________________

Sherrod Brown (D) leads in all four polls that Real Clear Politics used to create its polling average.

49/x

#Ohio #Senate #Polling #USPol #Elections #News

I believe the actual result in the race will be about 3% better ...

2026-09-20T02:48:52Z

In reply to nevent1q…9whl
_________________________

I believe the actual result in the race will be about 3% better for Republicans than the polling average suggests, based on how Ohio has voted in recent federal elections.

Therefore, I believe Sherrod Brown is currently on track to win by about 2%.

I consider that to be a Lean margin, rather than a Tilt margin.

48/x

Sherrod Brown (D) now leads the Ohio Senate Race by 4.8% in the ...

2026-09-20T02:45:14Z

In reply to nevent1q…hxd2
_________________________

Sherrod Brown (D) now leads the Ohio Senate Race by 4.8% in the RCP polling average.

47/x

#Ohio #Senate #Election #Politics #USPol #News

I have changed my rating for the Ohio Senate Race from Tilt D to ...

2026-09-20T02:40:23Z

In reply to nevent1q…tcqv
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I have changed my rating for the Ohio Senate Race from Tilt D to Lean D.

46/x

I have made my first rating changes. I have changed my rating for ...

2026-09-20T02:39:19Z

In reply to nevent1q…pk7k
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I have made my first rating changes.

I have changed my rating for the Minnesota Senate Race from Solid D to Likely D.

I will discuss the Minnesota Senate Race in detail at a later time.

But the rating change was based recent competitive polling in the race.

45/x

Here is the updated Senate Polling, including the averages I ...

2026-09-20T02:36:41Z

In reply to nevent1q…jvxg
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Here is the updated Senate Polling, including the averages I calculated for Kansas and Nebraska.

44/x

#Kansas #Nebraska #Senate #Polling #Politics #News #USPol

Democrat Mary Peltola's advantage in the Alaska Senate Race ...

2026-09-18T17:19:47Z

In reply to nevent1q…guwu
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Democrat Mary Peltola's advantage in the Alaska Senate Race has fallen from D+3.0 to D+1.7 in the Real Clear Politics polling average.

43/x

#Politics #USPol #News #Elections #Senate #Alaska #Iowa #Maine #Michigan #Texas #Ohio

You can support these 8 candidates, running in important and ...

2026-09-18T01:05:03Z

In reply to nevent1q…5jav
_________________________

You can support these 8 candidates, running in important and competitive elections, nationwide, through the Democratic Victory Fund.

This election is important. Let's win as many seats as we can.

https://secure.actblue.com/donate/democraticvictoryfund

42/x

#Politics #USPol #Elections #News #Kansas #Iowa #Texas #Georgia #Maine #Ohio #Governor #Senate #Legislature #Trump

The Democratic Victory Fund is raising money for two candidates ...

2026-09-18T01:01:30Z

In reply to nevent1q…625h
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The Democratic Victory Fund is raising money for two candidates for the Kansas Legislature: Candace Landers and Amelia Wiederaenders.

Both candidates are running in districts that were decided by less than 6% in both 2024 and 2022.

41/x

#Kansas #Legislature #Politics #USPol #Elections #News

Two Governor candidates are featured in the Democratic Victory ...

2026-09-18T00:58:14Z

In reply to nevent1q…wwxa
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Two Governor candidates are featured in the Democratic Victory Fund: Keisha Lance Bottoms in Georgia, and Amy Acton in Ohio.

40/x

#Georgia #Ohio #Governor #Elections #Politics #USPol

Four Senate candidates are featured in the Democratic Victory ...

2026-09-18T00:55:58Z

In reply to nevent1q…pdkz
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Four Senate candidates are featured in the Democratic Victory Fund: Adam Hamilton in Kansas, Josh Turek in Iowa, James Talarico in Texas, and Troy Jackson in Maine.

39/x

#Kansas #Iowa #Texas #Maine #Elections #USPol #Politics #News

Democrat Amy Acton's advantage in the Ohio Governor's ...

2026-09-17T18:31:04Z

In reply to nevent1q…4ltr
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Democrat Amy Acton's advantage in the Ohio Governor's Race has increased from D+0.3 to D+1.0 in the Real Clear Politics polling average.

38/x

#Ohio #Governor #Polling #USPol #Politics #Elections #News #Nevada #Georgia #Wisconsin #Iowa #Michigan

Republican Incumbent Greg Abbott's advantage in the Texas ...

2026-09-17T18:27:30Z

In reply to nevent1q…ky38
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Republican Incumbent Greg Abbott's advantage in the Texas Governor's Race has fallen from R+4.0 to R+2.9 in the Real Clear Politics polling average.

37/x

#Texas #Florida #Governor

Updated Senate Polling 36/x #Iowa #Maine #Minnesota #Michigan ...

2026-09-17T18:17:31Z

In reply to nevent1q…k4yn
_________________________

Updated Senate Polling

36/x

#Iowa #Maine #Minnesota #Michigan #Texas #Alaska #Ohio #Senate #Politics #USPol #Elections

Rob Sand's advantage in the Iowa Governor's Race has ...

2026-09-16T01:18:08Z

In reply to nevent1q…0wp4
_________________________

Rob Sand's advantage in the Iowa Governor's Race has fallen from D+6.0 to D+5.5 in the Real Clear Politics polling average.

35/x

#Iowa #Governor #Politics #USPol #News #Polling #Ohio #Nevada #Georgia #Wisconsin #Michigan

Republican Incumbent Greg Abbott has increased his advantage in ...

2026-09-16T01:14:50Z

In reply to nevent1q…4mvj
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Republican Incumbent Greg Abbott has increased his advantage in the Texas Governor's Race from R+3.2 to R+4.0 in the Real Clear Politics polling average.

34/x

#Texas #Florida #Governor #Polling #Politics #USPol

You can support Democrats running in important and competitive ...

2026-09-15T23:38:13Z

In reply to nevent1q…fklc
_________________________

You can support Democrats running in important and competitive elections, nationwide, through the Democratic Victory Fund.

https://secure.actblue.com/donate/democraticvictoryfund

33/x

#Politics #USPol #Elections #News #Fundraising #Governor #Senate #Legislature #Kansas #US #USA

Updated Senate Polling Averages 32/x #Polling #Senate #Elections ...

2026-09-15T23:36:31Z

In reply to nevent1q…jn0p
_________________________

Updated Senate Polling Averages

32/x

#Polling #Senate #Elections #USPol #Politics #Iowa #Michigan #Alaska #Texas #Maine #Ohio

Here is the updated Senate Polling Averages. Iowa is getting ...

2026-09-12T19:56:39Z

In reply to nevent1q…nqgp
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Here is the updated Senate Polling Averages.

Iowa is getting close.

31/x

#NorthCarolina #Georgia #Senate #Minnesota #Ohio #Texas #Maine #Alaska #Michigan #Iowa #Nebraska #Kansas #Florida #Politics #USPol #Elections

Here is the updated polling for Governor Races where Democrats ...

2026-09-11T16:34:53Z

In reply to nevent1q…sd6e
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Here is the updated polling for Governor Races where Democrats lead polling averages by less than 10%.

Notably, the Democratic candidate is leading in the polling average for Nevada Governor, for the first time.

30/x

#Michigan #Iowa #Wisconsin #Georgia #Nevada #Ohio #USPol #Politics #Elections #Polling #Governor #News

Here is the updated polling for Governor Races where Democrats ...

2026-09-11T16:30:48Z

In reply to nevent1q…smgd
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Here is the updated polling for Governor Races where Democrats lead polling averages by more than 10%.

29/x

#Governor #California #Pennsylvania #Arizona #NewYork #Politics #USPol #Elections

Here is the updated polling for Governor's Races with a ...

2026-09-11T16:16:37Z

In reply to nevent1q…durw
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Here is the updated polling for Governor's Races with a Republican advantage.

28/x

#Governor #Texas #Florida #USPol #Politics #Polling #Elections

Here is the updated polling for Senate Races. 27/x #Senate ...

2026-09-11T16:14:19Z

In reply to nevent1q…6ea9
_________________________

Here is the updated polling for Senate Races.

27/x

#Senate #Polling #Politics #USPol #Elections #News #Trump

The fund includes 4 candidates for the Kansas Legislature who won ...

2026-09-06T01:40:35Z

In reply to nevent1q…vd5g
_________________________

The fund includes 4 candidates for the Kansas Legislature who won contested Democratic Primaries.

Amelia Wiederaenders and Tim Lundberg are running in districts in Johnson County.

Emily Blanks is running in a district in Wyandotte County.

Candace Landers is running in a district located in Sedgwick and Butler counties.

26/x

#Kansas #Legislature #Democrats #Politics #USPol #Elections

The fund features 2 Governor candidates: Keisha Lance Bottoms in ...

2026-09-06T01:35:38Z

In reply to nevent1q…67fp
_________________________

The fund features 2 Governor candidates: Keisha Lance Bottoms in Georgia, and Amy Acton in Ohio.

25/x

#Governor #Politics #USPol #Elections

The fund features 4 Senate candidates: Troy Jackson in Maine, ...

2026-09-06T01:34:13Z

In reply to nevent1q…xawa
_________________________

The fund features 4 Senate candidates: Troy Jackson in Maine, James Talarico in Texas, Josh Turek in Iowa, and Adam Hamilton in Kansas.

24/x

#Senate #Maine #Texas #Iowa #Kansas #Politics #USPol #Elections

There are now only 10 candidates included in the Democratic ...

2026-09-06T01:32:14Z

In reply to nevent1q…7rz9
_________________________

There are now only 10 candidates included in the Democratic Victory Fund, which means each candidate will receive more money per donation.

https://secure.actblue.com/donate/democraticvictoryfund

23/x

#Politics #USPol #Elections #News #Senate #Governor #Legislature

Rob Sand (D) has reduced his advantage in the Iowa Governor's ...

2026-09-04T09:15:48Z

In reply to nevent1q…8qaq
_________________________

Rob Sand (D) has reduced his advantage in the Iowa Governor's Race from D+4.8 to D+4.4 in the RCP Polling Average.

22/x

#Iowa #Governor #Politics

Ashley Hinson (R) has increased her advantage in the Iowa Senate ...

2026-09-04T09:05:45Z

In reply to nevent1q…0sd7
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Ashley Hinson (R) has increased her advantage in the Iowa Senate Race from R+1.4 to R+1.8 in the RCP polling average.

21/x

#Iowa #Senate #Election

All four polling average changes, from Aug. 31 to Sept. 3, moved ...

2026-09-03T08:07:38Z

In reply to nevent1q…ypel
_________________________

All four polling average changes, from Aug. 31 to Sept. 3, moved in a direction beneficial for Democrats.

20/x

James Talarico has increased his advantage in the Texas Senate ...

2026-09-03T08:02:18Z

In reply to nevent1q…f3vg
_________________________

James Talarico has increased his advantage in the Texas Senate Race from D+1.9 to D+2.4 in the RCP Polling Average.

Abdul El-Sayed has increased his advantage in the Michigan Senate Race from D+1.8 to D+2.3.

19/x

#Texas #Michigan #Senate #Elections #Polling #USPol

Greg Abbott's advantage in the Texas Governor's Race has ...

2026-09-03T07:56:36Z

In reply to nevent1q…4fc4
_________________________

Greg Abbott's advantage in the Texas Governor's Race has shrunk from R+4.7 to R+3.6 in the RCP Polling Average.

18/x

#Texas #Governor #Politics #USPol #Elections