Nostr notes by TonyR

Any weighting introduces bias. 2022 Vic State election: every ...

2026-09-08T01:36:29Z

In reply to nevent1q…hjjk
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Any weighting introduces bias. 2022 Vic State election: every poll was predicting Dan Andrews' gov would get rolled, and some were saying he could lose his seat. Outcome: Danslide #3 with increased majority

There are well over 18 million registered voters in Aus. Poll ...

2026-09-08T01:14:47Z

In reply to nevent1q…dm0h
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There are well over 18 million registered voters in Aus. Poll size is often 1.2k to 2k. That is 0.01% of voters. Statistically significant ???

Sorry Paul, I take exception with your statement : "Polls ...

2026-09-07T10:12:36Z

In reply to nevent1q…7grl
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Sorry Paul, I take exception with your statement :

"Polls capture the mood at a point in time, I think it adds to the overall picture"

Sure, polls may capture "a mood", but a gov can't develop and implement meaningful policies on mood. Eg. The recent budget policy on negative gearing will, over the long term, substantially increase the affordability of housing in Aus. The mood after the budget was to dump it! Govs need to be looking long term ... ideally >3 years, but that is a whole other discussion.

This gov, with such a huge mandate to govern, needs to grow some balls and do what they believe is best for the country and ignore the mood of the polls. A countries future can't be managed on the mood of polling or TikTok. Put faith in the party philosophy, develop policies and IMPLEMENT them! (for historic reference: Whitlam gov, Hawke/ Keating govs) Ignore the media, they will eventually come around when they see the commitment to follow through. Ignore ON, they will never govern as there are not enough bogans in this country to get them elected into a majority position!

#auspol

The whole concept of weekly polling of voting intentions and ...

2026-09-07T05:25:43Z

In reply to nevent1q…s9vr
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The whole concept of weekly polling of voting intentions and popularity of the leaders is f**ked. It's turned politics into a circus. The gov was elected with a mandate to govern for 3 years. They should be given time and space to develop and implement an agenda in that 3 years. Once the election rolls around again, then the electorate can have it's say.

#auspol

From Warrnambool, to be expected 😄

2026-08-15T11:57:48Z

In reply to nevent1q…x8j8
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From Warrnambool, to be expected 😄

A follow-up on this discussion: apparently, all the EVs in the ...

2026-07-21T08:20:48Z

In reply to nevent1q…wn7c
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A follow-up on this discussion: apparently, all the EVs in the Tour (official vehicles, UnoX, EF) get trucked (diesel) from the end of one stage to the start of the next 👀🙄
#tdf #tdf2026 #letour

I think the average day's driving would be considerably more ...

2026-07-14T13:25:56Z

In reply to nevent1q…f5l8
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I think the average day's driving would be considerably more than 200k. The distance between each stage can be considerable. It was mentioned by TV commentators the riders were often spending 2 hours on the bus in the morning travelling to the starts. Also, all those bikes on the roof would create a lot of drag and decrease range. As you said, the biggest issue would be charging when there are many EVs on LeTour.

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2025-11-17T10:12:50Z

#auspol

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-11-17/opposition-leader-sussan-ley-guarantees-leadership/106020032

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2025-11-14T05:42:46Z

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2025-11-11T12:40:14Z

In reply to nevent1q…pcmt
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I just tried uploading same vid above from this acct at ...

2025-11-11T12:35:01Z

In reply to nevent1q…j4wg
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I just tried uploading same vid above from this acct at aus.social and got a failed to send msg. I am using Tusky client for Android. So maybe looks like an aus.social issue :PUA: Shlee is a nervious bean & (npub1y5c…y986) Aus.Social's Honking Admin (npub1428…0vjx) ??