Nostr notes by CharlieAndrys

Chart source, using 2022 electricity and income data: ...

2026-09-15T18:35:16Z

In reply to nevent1q…udhf
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Chart source, using 2022 electricity and income data:
https://energyforgrowth.org/article/high-income-low-energy-countries-dont-exist-update-sep-2024/

ERCOT on flexible electricity users, including Bitcoin miners, reducing consumption during periods of high demand:
https://www.ercot.com/news/release/2022-12-06-ercot-creates-voluntary

IREN’s disclosure discussing its AI expansion and cash flow from Bitcoin mining:
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1878848/000187884825000029/businessupdatevf.htm

AI and electricity infrastructure:
https://www.iea.org/reports/key-questions-on-energy-and-ai/executive-summary

The AI policy proposals:
https://darioamodei.com/post/we-must-pace-the-frontier
https://openai.com/index/ai-policy-window/

I don’t want the companies leading the AI race deciding how ...

2026-09-15T18:33:59Z

I don’t want the companies leading the AI race deciding how fast everyone else is allowed to run.

People should be free to build, compete, and challenge the companies already at the top. I’m skeptical of government deliberately slowing innovation, especially when the companies leading that sector are helping shape the restrictions.

If an AI company believes its next model is too dangerous to release, it can hold that model back. Requiring its competitors to slow down too deserves much more scrutiny.

A company can spend heavily developing a model, then watch competitors deliver some of the same capabilities more cheaply. Distillation, where another model learns from its outputs, can make that lead harder to defend without reproducing every capability.

As someone who embraces AI, I want better tools becoming accessible to more people. Completing useful work with less time and expense lets smaller teams take on projects they couldn’t previously afford. Competition gives businesses a reason to pass some of those gains on to customers.

AI also needs electricity. Growing demand can strengthen the business case for generation, transmission, and upgrades to aging parts of the grid.

Bitcoin mining can help support that buildout. A miner can bring machines online in stages and earn Bitcoin without first signing an AI customer. That revenue can help support a powered site while the operator develops other uses for it. We have seen this play out in the public markets already.

Miners can act as buyers of last resort for otherwise low-value electricity when the economics work. They can also reduce consumption when the grid is strained. That makes mining a potential demand-response resource.

The chart shows that higher-income countries generally consume more electricity per person. It doesn’t establish that extra consumption alone creates wealth. Reliable, affordable power supports productive businesses and industry.

I’d rather make it easier to build that capacity than treat growing demand as a reason to stop advancing. Large new users should pay their share of the infrastructure they require.

Expensive approval requirements could protect the largest AI companies from competition. A rule can apply equally on paper and still be much harder for a small team to afford.

I support accountability for fraud, misuse, and harm. I also want America to stay ahead. We can’t assume competing countries will slow down because we do.

What specific risk would a slowdown reduce, and could a new competitor still afford to enter the market?

Nostr event nevent1qqsyj78s9aupt8ek3t3mwepa49yy346w7635rcppxldmk4pf5s6r0cgzyzye4ve46wcg0agzt8uac2wgwc8s4zy8zd0uyuzmfq3p3af5pz59yvcghnt

2026-08-31T01:04:10Z

Bitcoin is Digital Capital for the 21st Century.

AI agents are collapsing the time between an idea, a product, and ...

2026-08-24T19:30:30Z

AI agents are collapsing the time between an idea, a product, and a competitor with the same product.

A discounted cash flow model is a tool that the traditional financial industry uses often.

When AI compresses the timelines on these integral aspects of business, the terminal value sitting at the end of every one of those discounted cash flow models decays, because the growth being discounted can be taken before it ever arrives.

That is a hard risk to underwrite.

Bitcoin has no product to undercut, no margin to compete away, no board that can issue more of it, and no roadmap an agent can execute faster. 21m Bitcoin is not a business model. It cannot be outcompeted, only outlawed or abandoned.

Companies issuing credit on Bitcoin are operating companies. ...

2026-08-14T20:36:36Z

Companies issuing credit on Bitcoin are operating companies. Management decides what to issue, when, at what price, and in what structure, then has to service every coupon it promised. Those are daily operating decisions with real balance sheet risk. The securities they issue are their products.

Nostr event nevent1qqsttx5f8dq9vwdefxmvpzamhm2cckp4rxfcwcwg8yy7lr4nh69rq0szyzye4ve46wcg0agzt8uac2wgwc8s4zy8zd0uyuzmfq3p3af5pz59y980e0s

2026-08-13T20:29:35Z

Nostr event nevent1qqsp7l2hqa0tufd9mes64nh337emxe89g9sedunw923xv7gegzr8f8gzyzye4ve46wcg0agzt8uac2wgwc8s4zy8zd0uyuzmfq3p3af5pz59y90zhsy

2026-07-27T15:04:22Z

Walk and talk as though you are not long for this earth.

🤦🏻‍♂️

2026-07-23T14:34:14Z

In reply to nevent1q…2f4z
_________________________

🤦🏻‍♂️

The monopoly on money creation is the least examined power in ...

2026-07-13T15:45:30Z

The monopoly on money creation is the least examined power in modern life. New credit conjures new dollars, ~$7.7B of fresh federal debt lands every single day, and every dollar you saved yesterday foots the bill.

The founders knew. Jefferson called banking establishments "more dangerous than standing armies" and debt-funded government "swindling futurity on a large scale." The futurity is us.

Gold failed because it had to live in vaults and cross oceans by ship. Paper claims outgrew the metal, and in 1971 the tether was cut for good.

Bitcoin is money where the supply is a constant and nobody can revoke your access. Twelve memorized words cross any border on earth, and no committee meets to decide what your savings are worth.

End the monopoly on money and watch society begin to heal.

If you want it inside an actual plan: https://21stfinancialadvisors.com/schedule

“Then God blessed the seventh day and made it holy, because on ...

2026-07-08T14:52:28Z

“Then God blessed the seventh day and made it holy, because on it he rested from all the work of creating that he had done.”

— Genesis 2:3 NIV

AI is about to make almost everything digital free to copy. Most ...

2026-05-22T12:34:57Z

AI is about to make almost everything digital free to copy.

Most financial assets’ supplies can be expanded. Equity is issued, sovereign debt grows, currency is created by policy.

Bitcoin’s supply is fixed at 21 million.

Not many investment advisors get that.

Nostr event nevent1qqsxt86qlfl638uk04vdfrqgy8clkekmhc0kte08n992c6zk9nmjjtgzyzye4ve46wcg0agzt8uac2wgwc8s4zy8zd0uyuzmfq3p3af5pz59yal5chx

2026-05-19T14:20:45Z

In reply to nevent1q…kmdq
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Your financial advisor cannot help you with Bitcoin. Ask your ...

2026-05-19T14:18:05Z

Your financial advisor cannot help you with Bitcoin.

Ask your advisor how to set up a 2-of-3 multisig. Tell me how that goes.

Do you seriously think your rotting drywall and lumber are ...

2026-05-18T23:31:29Z

Do you seriously think your rotting drywall and lumber are getting more expensive?

Your money is just broken.

I don’t know who needs to hear this, but prices don’t go down ...

2026-05-12T23:46:43Z

I don’t know who needs to hear this, but prices don’t go down when inflation goes down.

Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from ...

2026-05-12T20:17:12Z

Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic to people who understand neither the math nor the engineering required to make it work.

Bitcoin Price on Mother's Day: 2011: $8 2012: $5 2013: $115 ...

2026-05-11T01:47:49Z

Bitcoin Price on Mother's Day:

2011: $8
2012: $5
2013: $115
2014: $444
2015: $240
2016: $450
2017: $1,850
2018: $8,440
2019: $7,200
2020: $8,600
2021: $56,700
2022: $28,800
2023: $27,000
2024: $60,800
2025: $104,000
2026: $81,700

No politician will post about all-time-high grocery prices, or ...

2026-05-07T15:05:02Z

No politician will post about all-time-high grocery prices, or rent, or health insurance.

The stock market hits a record and it's a press release. The cost of feeding your family hits a record and it's somebody else's problem.

The currency printing the asset bubble is the same currency printing the grocery bill.

Fiat rewards people who already own.

Your portfolio is up 8%. In what? The dollar lost about a fifth ...

2026-05-07T14:02:49Z

Your portfolio is up 8%. In what?

The dollar lost about a fifth of its purchasing power in five years. That is the unit you measure with. The yardstick shrinks while you congratulate yourself on the inches.

Bitcoin's pitch is not "buy this and get rich." It is "use this as the yardstick and find out what you actually own."

A fixed-supply unit of account is a different category of asset than the one your statement is denominated in.

Nostr event nevent1qqspjaq0j2ch6xqzmmp07vlstazysyxr3ngg02ntwjyy9wca6phuhsgzyzye4ve46wcg0agzt8uac2wgwc8s4zy8zd0uyuzmfq3p3af5pz59y68nh3c

2026-05-07T11:38:45Z

I cannot stress enough the importance of owning Bitcoin.

In case you haven’t noticed, we are in a financial repression ...

2026-05-05T14:35:18Z

In case you haven’t noticed, we are in a financial repression regime. With sovereign debt at WWII-era levels of GDP, the policy choice narrows to monetizing the deficit instead of defaulting on it. Negative real rates and persistent inflation are how the system services itself.

The 60/40 died years ago. Did anyone notice?

Money requires credit. Gold required it, dollars require it, ...

2026-05-04T14:53:14Z

Money requires credit. Gold required it, dollars require it, Bitcoin will require it.

The argument that Bitcoin should never carry a credit market is the argument that Bitcoin should remain a savings asset and never become base layer money. Pick one.

The credit layer is the second floor of monetary infrastructure. Bitcoin’s is being framed right now.

American workers are 400% more productive than they were in 1950. ...

2026-05-03T10:31:24Z

American workers are 400% more productive than they were in 1950.

The average American has less savings, more debt, works more hours, and retires later than they did in 1970.

Somebody kept the difference. It wasn't you.

The money is broken.

AI compresses the cost of producing anything copyable: content, ...

2026-05-01T13:44:47Z

AI compresses the cost of producing anything copyable: content, software, education, fiat dollars. The protocol that issues Bitcoin does not produce on demand. In a world flooded with cheap digital output, hard digital scarcity is the asset class.

The FOMC has eight scheduled meetings every year. None of them ...

2026-04-30T13:23:23Z

The FOMC has eight scheduled meetings every year. None of them have ever changed the Bitcoin block reward.

That is the entire job description of sound money. No committee, no vote, and no dual mandate to balance against the next election.

The protocol just runs.

Deficits run 6 to 7 percent of GDP. The marginal buyer of long ...

2026-04-29T12:50:20Z

Deficits run 6 to 7 percent of GDP. The marginal buyer of long paper is the domestic banking system, not a foreign central bank.

And boomer advisors still think bonds are conservative…

Wisdom.

2026-04-26T20:55:01Z

In reply to nevent1q…krkv
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Wisdom.

Nobody prepares you for this.

2026-04-25T02:14:34Z

In reply to nevent1q…vgs7
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Nobody prepares you for this.

Did your dad teach you? B.A.

2026-04-25T02:12:47Z

In reply to nevent1q…r5xk
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Did your dad teach you? B.A.

Agreed. Feels much more personal too.

2026-04-25T02:12:05Z

In reply to nevent1q…f9wn
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Agreed. Feels much more personal too.

Badass!

2026-04-25T02:11:41Z

In reply to nevent1q…mq7a
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Badass!

Terrifying.

2026-04-25T02:09:52Z

In reply to nevent1q…rjlr
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Terrifying.

Half-decade with the one. 🧡 ...

2026-04-25T01:26:29Z

Half-decade with the one. 🧡

🤣🤣🤣

2026-04-24T14:42:39Z

In reply to nevent1q…wy8n
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🤣🤣🤣

Every advisor still defaulting a retiree into 60/40 with zero BTC ...

2026-04-24T14:35:37Z

Every advisor still defaulting a retiree into 60/40 with zero BTC is running a hidden concentrated bet. They just do not know they are.

I don’t know who needs to hear this, but $STRC doesn’t ...

2026-04-23T14:17:42Z

I don’t know who needs to hear this, but $STRC doesn’t compete with cold-storage spot Bitcoin.

$STRC DOES, however, compete with all the traditional credit instruments that exist in the market today.

A four-star told the Senate that Bitcoin is a tool for U.S. power ...

2026-04-22T12:46:26Z

A four-star told the Senate that Bitcoin is a tool for U.S. power projection. The “magic internet money” frame just became a lagging indicator.

https://open.substack.com/pub/21stfinancial/p/under-oath?r=6d78du&utm_medium=ios

A four-star admiral just told the Senate that Bitcoin is a power ...

2026-04-22T12:20:27Z

A four-star admiral just told the Senate that Bitcoin is a power projection tool.

Meanwhile CCP's monetary think tank is already publishing its own research on BTC as a strategic asset because BPI has been doing it here. They are not confused about what this is.

The tradfi advisors still calling it speculation are going to be the last to know.

Read Softwar, damnit.

April’s “As of the 21st” just shipped. Schwab, Strategy, ...

2026-04-21T16:03:06Z

April’s “As of the 21st” just shipped.

Schwab, Strategy, and Citigroup. Oh my!

https://open.substack.com/pub/21stfinancial/p/as-of-the-21st?r=6d78du&utm_medium=ios

https://thebitcoinadviser.com/21st-financial#get-started

2026-04-21T15:05:59Z

In reply to nevent1q…xugz
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https://thebitcoinadviser.com/21st-financial#get-started

Click the link.

2026-04-21T14:56:22Z

In reply to nevent1q…aaze
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Click the link.

https://thebitcoinadviser.com/21st-financial#get-started Holding ...

2026-04-21T14:54:06Z

In reply to nevent1q…5hfu
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https://thebitcoinadviser.com/21st-financial#get-started

Holding cold storage Bitcoin in self-custody is step #1.

“Interested in Bitcoin but scared of the volatility” is the ...

2026-04-21T14:34:18Z

“Interested in Bitcoin but scared of the volatility” is the single most common sentence out of prospective clients.

Most advisors who have never held a sat tell them to stay away.

An advisor who actually holds it can size and structure the position to a drawdown they will not panic-sell.

The exposure is still the trade.

Fiat debasement is a guarantee.

Insanity.

2026-04-20T14:29:28Z

In reply to nevent1q…ez7n
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Insanity.

Nostr event nevent1qqsd5pcusw4weqj5y45hcw6h7glmptfvx8np8vsdkfl0sfr5sa0gt2szyzye4ve46wcg0agzt8uac2wgwc8s4zy8zd0uyuzmfq3p3af5pz59ypn2zn4

2026-04-20T14:28:42Z

In reply to nevent1q…sqev
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Relentless. Passed BlackRock.

2026-04-20T13:17:48Z

In reply to nevent1q…p967
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Relentless. Passed BlackRock.

MSTR Sats per Share has nearly doubled in the last 3 years. ...

2026-04-20T12:29:42Z

MSTR Sats per Share has nearly doubled in the last 3 years.

Nostr event nevent1qqspjnf0uu8lx2jgdxxd5m3uzp4uyc7qz84ks9upm3p7e3c6g9ferwqzyzye4ve46wcg0agzt8uac2wgwc8s4zy8zd0uyuzmfq3p3af5pz59yk3epl3

2026-04-20T12:21:21Z

Oh, you thought last week’s $STRC issuance was crazy?

Strategy is proposing to pay STRC dividends semi-monthly instead ...

2026-04-17T20:26:17Z

Strategy is proposing to pay STRC dividends semi-monthly instead of monthly.

Same annual rate. Same obligation. Twice the cadence.

Most Americans get paid semi-monthly. STRC would be on the same rhythm as the paychecks it replaces.

A new derivatives product launching this week worth understanding ...

2026-04-17T19:28:56Z

A new derivatives product launching this week worth understanding if you have any retirement money sitting in alternative funds, BDCs, or target date allocations. Educational content, not investment advice.

#privatecredit #bitcoin #financialeducation

Wow, this stuff moves so fast.

2026-04-17T19:18:19Z

In reply to nevent1q…rmwr
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Wow, this stuff moves so fast.

Can’t wait for Mythos.

2026-04-16T15:39:17Z

In reply to nevent1q…qnh0
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Can’t wait for Mythos.

Reminder: if we taxed every dollar of wealth from billionaires, ...

2026-04-15T19:26:19Z

Reminder: if we taxed every dollar of wealth from billionaires, we’d be able to run the government for like, a year.

Maybe it’s a spending problem..

Strategy raised $1 billion in a single week selling preferred ...

2026-04-15T19:08:40Z

Strategy raised $1 billion in a single week selling preferred stock and used every dollar to buy Bitcoin. No common stock dilution. Here is how the capital structure actually works.

STRC’s dividend rate is variable and subject to change. Past performance does not guarantee future results. This is educational content, not investment advice. Not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.

#Bitcoin #STRC #Strategy #investing #financialeducation

My take on private credit and the possible contagion effects into ...

2026-04-09T23:33:29Z

My take on private credit and the possible contagion effects into life insurance.

For educational and informational purposes only. Not financial advice.

Psalm 22:16–18 “For dogs encompass me; a company of evildoers ...

2026-04-03T14:01:37Z

Psalm 22:16–18

“For dogs encompass me;
a company of evildoers encircles me;
they have pierced my hands and feet—
I can count all my bones—
they stare and gloat over me;
they divide my garments among them,
and for my clothing they cast lots.”

Pretty much, lol.

2026-03-24T15:01:17Z

In reply to nevent1q…x32j
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Pretty much, lol.

Nostr event nevent1qqs92kh9vndlh98yyx7hy2ug6hackgt7chj8tjz8xqrz0gxy9sr56cszyzye4ve46wcg0agzt8uac2wgwc8s4zy8zd0uyuzmfq3p3af5pz59yas7duu

2026-03-24T14:39:09Z

In reply to nevent1q…5peh
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#dogstr #dawg

2026-03-22T17:23:58Z

In reply to nevent1q…tf3l
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#dogstr #dawg

Springtime in ND is very muddy! Bill says hi! ...

2026-03-22T17:21:31Z

In reply to nevent1q…24qk
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Springtime in ND is very muddy! Bill says hi!

And super smart too. And awesome. Don’t forget awesome.

2026-03-22T17:17:07Z

In reply to nevent1q…yd8q
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And super smart too. And awesome. Don’t forget awesome.

Miss me with that shit!

2026-03-22T17:08:20Z

In reply to nevent1q…y8h2
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Miss me with that shit!

Better stack.

2026-03-22T17:06:19Z

In reply to nevent1q…csd9
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Better stack.

Every individual is only a version of you.

2026-03-22T17:04:57Z

In reply to nevent1q…5dcv
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Every individual is only a version of you.

SoftWar

2026-03-22T17:03:56Z

In reply to nevent1q…muq9
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SoftWar

Nostr event nevent1qqswrucfyym36vsc89gup3ddaux3lp9zz582qgrlqc5egjmtfyh8lhqzyzye4ve46wcg0agzt8uac2wgwc8s4zy8zd0uyuzmfq3p3af5pz59y9trxcp

2026-03-22T16:51:15Z

War is so fiat.

GM, Happy Sunday! “Be still, and know that I am God; I will be ...

2026-03-22T16:51:02Z

GM, Happy Sunday!

“Be still, and know that I am God; I will be exalted among the nations, I will be exalted in the earth.”

— Psalm 46:10

DEI is racist. Hiring should be based on merit and ability, not ...

2026-03-22T16:49:01Z

In reply to nevent1q…afpv
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DEI is racist. Hiring should be based on merit and ability, not skin color.

The NBA doesn’t want me bro. That’s alright.

Powell delivers his second to last speech today. Wonder if ...

2026-03-18T15:02:16Z

Powell delivers his second to last speech today. Wonder if private credit will play into their decision.

Again, insane and archaic that the entire global economy hinges on the words of one man.

Again, private credit is cracking. Morgan Stanley put out an 8% ...

2026-03-17T19:23:42Z

Again, private credit is cracking.

Morgan Stanley put out an 8% default rate projection for direct lending. AI is repricing the software sector, and software companies make up 25-35% of many private credit portfolios. These are companies that borrowed at peak valuations when rates were low, and now their competitive moats are eroding faster than anyone modeled.

Blackstone had $3.8B in withdrawal requests on BCRED. Cliffwater capped redemptions at 14%. Blue Owl stopped them entirely.

The capital leaving private credit needs a destination. It needs yield, liquidity, and something resembling honest pricing. I think digital credit built on Bitcoin is that destination, and the reallocation hasn’t even started yet.

People aren’t bad at saving, they’re just saving in the wrong ...

2026-03-16T14:53:24Z

People aren’t bad at saving, they’re just saving in the wrong things.

Insane demand! 🤯 Bought more than 0.1% of the entire supply in ...

2026-03-16T13:03:25Z

In reply to nevent1q…lkz4
_________________________

Insane demand! 🤯

Bought more than 0.1% of the entire supply in an entire week!

GM Strategy bought 22,337 BTC last week. Over 0.1% of the total ...

2026-03-16T13:02:40Z

GM

Strategy bought 22,337 BTC last week. Over 0.1% of the total supply.

$1.18 billion came from STRC. “Only” $396 million from selling MSTR common equity at a ~1.14x mNAV. The preferred instruments are now the primary engine.

Strategy is layering credit on top of Bitcoin as a reserve asset. STRC pays 11.50% yield, adjusts monthly, trades ~$100 par, and is overcollateralized roughly 5x. It functions more like a fixed-income instrument than an equity position, but the collateral underneath is the hardest money ever created.

Hal Finney wrote about this kind of architecture years ago. He envisioned Bitcoin transactions being rare, with most economic activity happening on layers above the base. Most people never touching the underlying Bitcoin, just interacting with instruments build on top of it.

That is exactly what STRC is. A credit layer on top of Bitcoin’s monetary base. And it raised $1.18 billion in a single week while private credit funds are literally shutting their gates to prevent people from leaving.

The capital reallocation from legacy credit to digital credit is not a prediction game anymore. It is happening in real-time!

Standard Oil didn’t get big because oil was valuable. It got ...

2026-03-16T00:59:07Z

Standard Oil didn’t get big because oil was valuable.

It got big because Rockefeller figured out that raw crude is useless until you refine it and build the plumbing to move it through the economy.

That exact ‘Strategy’ is being executed right now.

The electronic standing desk lmao

2026-03-13T22:24:08Z

In reply to nevent1q…fahr
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The electronic standing desk lmao

Thanks brother! People need to check their financial privilege.

2026-03-13T17:32:45Z

In reply to nevent1q…4tur
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Thanks brother! People need to check their financial privilege.

Bitcoin or bust.

2026-03-13T17:03:16Z

In reply to nevent1q…qy5r
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Bitcoin or bust.

There’s a version of the Bitcoin thesis that only makes sense ...

2026-03-13T17:03:04Z

There’s a version of the Bitcoin thesis that only makes sense in peacetime, where it’s just a better savings technology in a world that otherwise functions normally. That version is comfortable and clean and easy to explain at dinner.

Then there’s the version you see right now.

A war breaks out. Oil spikes. The bond market seizes. Gold rallies for a week and then stalls. And Bitcoin, the thing that every allocator said was too volatile, too speculative, too correlated to risk assets, quietly climbs 12% while the rest of the financial system tries to figure out what to do next.

Meanwhile, people inside the war zone are using Bitcoin to move capital out of a collapsing system. Not because they read a white paper or watched a podcast or have a financial advisor. Because their banks are frozen, their currency is losing value by the day, and Bitcoin is the only network that doesn’t ask for permission.

I think about this a lot when people ask me why I built an advisory practice around a single asset. The answer is that no other asset does what Bitcoin does when things actually break. Not gold. Not real estate. Not Treasuries. Nothing else settles globally, 24/7, without counterparty risk, under any political conditions. That matters more than volatility. It always has.

Max pain scenario.

2026-03-12T19:01:33Z

In reply to nevent1q…q2y4
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Max pain scenario.

Blame the parents, don’t blame the children who don’t know ...

2026-03-12T19:00:55Z

In reply to nevent1q…7v62
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Blame the parents, don’t blame the children who don’t know any better.

Nostr event nevent1qqsq2hw4aqws4fj38lqxwcees5xv78v2zhz9p64mttnnw68x5ueaq7szyzye4ve46wcg0agzt8uac2wgwc8s4zy8zd0uyuzmfq3p3af5pz59y0jxqgf

2026-03-12T18:59:48Z

In reply to nevent1q…zj2p
_________________________

https://primal.net/e/nevent1qqs9ukzu03ksd2a2y4hpsjsc5ngwrq0zf2zzud8kul7n2uk6qe5zmgqlpv36f

Yikes. This is what Bitcoin-backed credit is competing with.

2026-03-12T18:59:03Z

In reply to nevent1q…djuz
_________________________

Yikes. This is what Bitcoin-backed credit is competing with.

If private credit funds are gating withdrawals during a downturn, ...

2026-03-12T15:29:41Z

If private credit funds are gating withdrawals during a downturn, what exactly makes them safer than an asset that you can sell 24/7/365 on any exchange on earth?

I have been thinking about what happens to the private credit ...

2026-03-11T15:30:59Z

I have been thinking about what happens to the private credit market when transparency becomes the default expectation.

PIMCO came out today and blamed sloppy underwriting for what they're calling a private credit reckoning. JPMorgan is marking down loan portfolios. The industry that grew to $1.7 trillion by promising equity returns with bond-like stability is starting to show the cracks that were always underneath the surface.

The thing that made private credit feel safe was never the credit quality. It was the pricing opacity. If you only mark your book once a quarter, and you control the model that produces the mark, you can make volatility disappear. That is not low risk. It is low transparency, and the market treated those as the same thing for years.

What Bitcoin-backed credit instruments are doing is removing the ability to hide behind that opacity. $STRC prices every second the market is open. The collateral ratio is visible on-chain. There is no fund manager sitting between you and the valuation, deciding what number makes the quarterly report look acceptable.

I do not think most people realize how foundational this shift is. The entire traditional credit market is built on the assumption that investors will accept delayed, model-dependent pricing as a feature rather than a bug. Once you have seen real-time transparent pricing on a regulated exchange, going back to "we'll tell you what your money is worth in 90 days" feels like a different era.

The private credit reckoning is not about one cycle or one set of bad loans. It is about the structural advantage of transparency, and the fact that transparent alternatives now exist at scale.

Romans 12:21 "Do not be overcome by evil, but overcome evil ...

2026-03-10T13:43:39Z

In reply to nevent1q…dhnd
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Romans 12:21

"Do not be overcome by evil, but overcome evil with good."

Long-duration.

2026-03-10T13:34:44Z

In reply to nevent1q…lcer
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Long-duration.

Holding an asset whose supply cannot be manipulated by any ...

2026-03-10T13:22:25Z

Holding an asset whose supply cannot be manipulated by any government, corporation, or institution is probably the least risky thing you can do with long-duration capital.

Nostr event nevent1qqs8cq0h2z2vwe87ggf3zza2ahludfp8pltt5u9dcnywnv2fcgj32vqzyzye4ve46wcg0agzt8uac2wgwc8s4zy8zd0uyuzmfq3p3af5pz59y9mkhw8

2026-03-09T23:52:07Z

Twenty million Bitcoin in circulation.

This is awesome, can I steal it?

2026-03-09T19:02:25Z

In reply to nevent1q…mp63
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This is awesome, can I steal it?

Nostr event nevent1qqsgphxr9vmhcd5nul4k0htg98pe2uv493hv9pldydqlp3pgz9ypgvczyzye4ve46wcg0agzt8uac2wgwc8s4zy8zd0uyuzmfq3p3af5pz59ysh5apj

2026-03-09T15:47:08Z

Oil melting up. Bitcoin doesn’t care.

I swear to God I’m not making this up. Some anti-data center ...

2026-03-08T13:58:25Z

In reply to nevent1q…6lj8
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I swear to God I’m not making this up.

Some anti-data center boomer I’m friends with on Facebook posted an AI video of a farmer protesting data centers. It doesn’t get any more ironic than that.

😅😅

2026-03-08T13:55:49Z

In reply to nevent1q…92cg
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😅😅

Brother, respectfully, what the fuck are you talking about

2026-03-08T13:54:27Z

In reply to nevent1q…82yf
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Brother, respectfully, what the fuck are you talking about

But paper straws am I right? #nevent1q…qvur

2026-03-08T13:53:46Z

But paper straws am I right?

quoting
nevent1q…qvur
Fires continue to burn into the morning at the Shahran Oil Depot in Northern Tehran, following overnight strikes by Israel.

The traditional finance industry has a fascinating incentive ...

2026-03-07T17:03:05Z

The traditional finance industry has a fascinating incentive problem.

Advisors get paid based on AUM. AUM grows when markets go up and when they gather new clients. AUM shrinks when markets go down or clients leave.

This creates a subtle bias: advisors are incentivized to keep your money in assets they can manage easily. Stocks, bonds, mutual funds, ETFs. Assets that sit nicely in a brokerage account and generate a predictable fee.

Bitcoin in self-custody does not generate advisory fees. A cold storage wallet does not show up on a portfolio report. Keys on a hardware device do not produce quarterly statements.

This is why most advisors either ignore Bitcoin or push Bitcoin ETFs exclusively. Not because ETFs are always the best vehicle, but because ETFs are the vehicle they can manage and charge a fee on.

I run my practice differently. Some of my clients should hold FBTC (I like Fidelity over BlackRock). Some should hold cold storage. Some should do both. The recommendation depends on the client, not on what generates the most fee income for me.

That is what fiduciary actually means. The recommendation serves the client, not the advisor.

If your advisor cannot explain the difference between a Bitcoin ETF and self-custody, and when each one makes sense, they are not qualified to advise you on Bitcoin. Period.

10% Bitcoin in a 60/40 portfolio over the last 5 years: ...

2026-03-04T16:17:18Z

10% Bitcoin in a 60/40 portfolio over the last 5 years:

Traditional 60/40: ~7% annualized
55/35/10 (with BTC): ~13% annualized

This is not about being a Bitcoin maximalist. It is about reading the data.

Your advisor should be able to have this conversation.

Insane.

2026-03-03T15:19:09Z

In reply to nevent1q…ttsd
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Insane.

Kind of makes my brain tingle.

2026-03-02T22:43:06Z

In reply to nevent1q…mfet
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Kind of makes my brain tingle.

How so?

2026-03-01T03:06:08Z

In reply to nevent1q…eagh
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How so?

I think the white looks clean.

2026-02-28T22:06:13Z

In reply to nevent1q…th4g
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I think the white looks clean.