timevalueofbtc
Nik Bhatia

thebitcoinlayer.com

Public Key

npub1qw6e8meaj5gzk49alamh9qf35lpmml5sq7ctjtxhcjk55qppmcjs0j2v52

Profile Code

nprofile1qqsq8dvnau7e2ypt2j7l7amjsyc60saal6gq0v9e9ntuft22qqsaufgpr4mhxue69uhkummnw3ez6ur4vgh8wetvd3hhyer9wghxuet5jchyqz

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nostr-pub.wellorder.net

Author Public Key

npub1qw6e8meaj5gzk49alamh9qf35lpmml5sq7ctjtxhcjk55qppmcjs0j2v52

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Last Notes

2026-07-30 12:26:05 UTC

GOOD MORNING
BITCOIN STILL HAS UNTHINKABLE ASYMMETRY, BUT IF YOU DON'T THINK IN TRILLIONS, YOU MIGHT NOT SEE IT
COUNT YOUR BLESSINGS

2026-06-02 12:29:02 UTC

GM and PV
Three weeks until my Bitcoin summer camp begins at USC. Which is the one wallet you’d recommend for self custody on chain and lightning payments? Must be LN capable, must be easy to use for newbies!

2026-04-25 14:56:32 UTC

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I’m here to serve, teach, and lead. Not concerned with the “me” in all of it. My family matters much more.

2026-04-25 02:26:11 UTC

What an honor to visit the White House, Treasury, and Commerce this week.
Can't believe I get to help push the idea of LIBOR-to-SOFR 2.0.
Reach for the stars!
https://blossom.primal.net/7009e641f23fffb5c2c2673c1051dd3f4b006393bdeec38e5f8f81c4ac6961c3.jpg
https://blossom.primal.net/62f2218e3e75adcd3d6050f0aaa1716c18d87bd40a5a413c0b734a6942568302.jpg
https://blossom.primal.net/e0ef30d32e4adb7c2325647cef13fe62f0b90d279a5b67c0d811195851148208.jpg
https://blossom.primal.net/cbdb01ed209785ab79aae3047cce9b8ee34706fb8ee46b47155241574643c2cb.jpg

2026-04-13 23:53:30 UTC

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Glad you are loving it!
We have worked really hard to bring people a helpful bitcoin and macro quant to their fingertips.
#nevent1q…ylx0

2026-02-24 00:11:43 UTC

Claude kills again!

2026-01-23 16:32:06 UTC

With gold practically $5,000 and silver at $100, the sentiment in bitcoin is so poor due to being left out of the metals rally that it almost feels like post-FTX $17,000 bear vibes
I am bullish but the painful type where fear dominates and you have to push through it

2025-11-13 13:51:44 UTC

GM & PV
The less time on Twitter the more free I feel. And my wife said she’s proud of me for not chasing the algo.
Count your blessings!

2025-10-24 15:18:39 UTC

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One of our great episodes, a 500 year context to today’s geopolitical events. Don’t miss this one.
#nevent1q…z2jt

2025-10-23 11:59:16 UTC

GM and PV
Wonderful day as always to count your blessings
I have now logged out of Twitter on my trading station (phone was last year). Only laptop remains and I have been checking it much less. I had convinced myself in the past I needed Twitter because that’s where news happens, but at what cost to inner peace?

2025-10-01 18:18:13 UTC

“The dollar” is a derivative of things that have value and are commonly denominated in dollars, such as assets. The dollar is itself fleeting, as is all currency today. Currency is not an asset.
It used to be linked to an asset, gold, which is a mind trick used on the populace.
Bitcoin is an asset.

2025-08-17 00:49:15 UTC

I miss pre-Saylor bitcoin, but here we are!

2025-08-14 12:57:06 UTC

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GM, PV
YOU ARE MEANT FOR MORE
COUNT YOUR BLESSINGS
#nevent1q…es9g

2025-08-09 02:11:52 UTC

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Epic night! Summertime Chi!

2025-08-02 16:47:39 UTC

How I feel these days
https://blossom.primal.net/2f1cd8cabbb9b2716e001c68012cf8524e26c4db3f2b21f111b04091d78c34f3.png

2025-07-30 14:37:04 UTC

Letter from a student. Rewards of leaving a life on the trading desk to research and teach. It doesn't get better than this. Makes me realize how much I am blessed. Showing my wife these is an equally special moment because of proof-of-work.
"Good morning/evening Professor Nik,
I just wanted to take some time to thank you for everything I learned in your Bitcoin program.
Honestly, when I first read "AI and Finance," I thought you were going to teach quantitative finance with AI as some new algorithm. I applied because it was literally the only class that interested me, and I'm pretty sure I put it as all three of my choices on the application.
When I found out later that it was mainly about finance fundamentals, I thought I was going to have a horrible time. Boy, was I wrong—I accidentally discovered that besides computer science, finance might actually be my thing.
I didn't realize how important the stuff we covered (especially credit creation and layered money) was until I started my recent internship at <REMOVED FOR PRIVACY>. The foundation you built for understanding markets—especially that class where you talked about credit creation and what happens to stocks and treasuries when more loans get taken out—has been incredibly helpful.
The knowledge from your class has actually let me start conversations about crypto and stablecoins with some of my colleagues who've been in high finance for over two decades. I've been able to explain where Bitcoin gets its value and what stablecoins actually are. When they asked questions like what Bitcoin's market cap really means, I could talk about UTXOs and explain concepts like Bitcoin's realized value.
This class really inspired me and honestly might even change the career path I end up taking. But above everything else, being able to actually transact Bitcoin in class was lowkey cool (not gonna lie, best thing ever)—it felt so much different than just reading the tech docs for the protocol.
Thanks again for such an eye-opening semester!"

2025-07-29 17:35:58 UTC

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I think the wealthy class is already well aware. In fact I know professional athletes and many are bitcoiners.

2025-07-29 13:14:04 UTC

No Twitter on my phone for about a year now. Life much better. More attention on my family when I’m with them. Scrolling was causing neck pain on the side I hold my phone. Inner peace is the way. I still tweet from the desk and wish my business model didn’t depend on social media promo so much, but alas.
GM, count your blessings!

2025-07-28 13:58:47 UTC

GOOD MORNING
BOOK SIGNING @npub1key…lt3h NYC AUGUST 5TH
BOOK SIGNING @npub1cxy…hz6x SF AUGUST 14TH
SEE YOU THERE!
COUNT YOUR BLESSINGS!

2025-05-31 05:19:56 UTC

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I was pleasantly surprised at how much I enjoyed the conference. Usually not a fan of such enormous crowds, but this experience was defined by high quality people, from individuals, to couples, to professionals. Incredible to meet some of you in person. Beyond blessed!
#nevent1q…z657

2025-05-14 00:06:08 UTC

Money don’t make you solid,
it just makes you 10 times more of the person you are before you got it

2025-05-01 12:20:56 UTC

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Extremely high signal episode with Dines on dollar recycling in China being replaced by gold purchases. Also, how the Eurodollar system is impacted by tariffs.
nevent1qqs0pxy9q46xc3hc3nspkurk2gxnkz09usypmfjylwf5wkr0k2pqxsspzemhxue69uhky6t5vdhkjmn9wgh8xmmrd9skcrwmpfm

2023-10-23 15:38:21 UTC

this year, going long Treasuries might have gotten a trader or two fired
next year, there will be asset managers fired for not locking in 5% Treasury yields during 2023
market shifts are much easier seen in hindsight

2023-09-21 00:33:15 UTC

there rates go ↗️
and the Treasury deluge hasn’t even really quite started
ever seen the crowding out effect in action?
Q4 shaping up to be a wild one!

2023-09-12 15:45:28 UTC

midterm tonight…don’t show my students https://image.nostr.build/c77460b38c853076545cedf2ce23dc0ac68b9706804184c1581eb866907948cb.jpg

2023-05-15 14:19:06 UTC

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No, new Treasury issuance isn’t new money itself, it’s new debt. Only the Fed and banks can create new money through QE or loans.

2023-05-15 13:57:48 UTC

While many obsess over the debt ceiling fight, markets ponder what an agreement will bring in terms of liquidity drain, as the Treasury refills its general account at the Fed. Money used to buy T-bills means money not hitting the system elsewhere (until govt spends it). We wait.

2023-04-20 15:50:09 UTC

REGIME SHIFT
something we have been watching closely
the chart shows how strongly positive the correlation is now between 10-year Treasury yields and stocks
when yields head lower, it won't be supportive to stocks as it was last year https://nostr.build/i/nostr.build_dcae2edd7406221d355e96d5e3a7028a34775f4aa8704f09f07b3dcf10b47345.jpeg

2023-04-19 13:52:57 UTC

Everywhere you look, it’s dedollarization. Headlines and narratives, of course. Because on the ground and within the banking system, it seems that all anybody wants is dollars. How realistic is dedollarization, though? Not very, especially when you look at the hard numbers. In today’s free post, we’ll explore how hopes of a euro-, yuan-, or gold-centric monetary system are intangible. We’ll also explain how bitcoin adoption is the only competitor with promising, albeit early, momentum.
Bitcoin’s adoption trend calls into question any momentum the euro, yuan, or gold might have in challenging the dollar. The dollar remains dominant and entrenched, but the internet’s currency is just beginning to strengthen its running legs. Let’s see before how long it enters a full sprint.
https://thebitcoinlayer.substack.com/p/dollar-challengers-euro-yuan-gold

2023-04-08 15:04:36 UTC

The reason I started a substack in the first place, September 2021, was that I was generally sick of relying on twitter to reach readers
Here’s our latest update, all weekly updates are free to everybody! https://thebitcoinlayer.substack.com/p/objects-in-the-mirror-are-closer

2023-03-31 07:14:15 UTC

Banks under fire for more than poor hedging and low-interest deposit rates. JPMorgan and Deutsche Bank are both being sued by Epstein accusers.
Just published "Jamie Dimon to be interviewed under oath in Epstein sex trafficking case" for #[0] https://thebitcoinlayer.substack.com/p/jamie-dimon-to-be-interviewed-under

2023-03-11 02:56:16 UTC

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You have a gift sir! We are are grateful for your ability to explain the future before most can see it.

2023-03-08 23:00:13 UTC

To give you a sense of just how differently the front end and long end of the yield curve are behaving.
2s are 13 bps ABOVE their levels from Thursday 3/2, six days ago.
10s are 10 bps BELOW their 3/2 levels.
Expectations are firm for higher policy rates, followed by lower rates. 2s trade with a 5 handle, yet 10s struggle to stay above 4%. It shows the unwillingness of investors to part with their Treasuries despite the higher discount rates.
This is typical late cycle fixed income market behavior.

2023-03-08 00:09:27 UTC

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Should be out tomorrow!

2023-03-07 22:56:54 UTC

Just on here zapping myself from my Wallet of Satoshi to my ZBD lnurl #[0]
Lightning 🤝 Nostr

2023-03-07 21:53:15 UTC

I just interviewed #[0] for #[1] about Nostr.
Mind. Fully. Blown.
Nobody breaks down technological trends like Jeff. The future is built on this protocol. Do you agree and to what extent?

2023-03-01 14:27:44 UTC

High spot inflation in Europe should be a net positive for the euro as ECB must address price instability. Dollar will weaken which should ease financial conditions.
Separately, a close eye on ISM Manufacturing coming up this morning to gauge any contraction in the US economy.

2023-02-27 20:57:21 UTC

Lightning Network is the captain now