Starting with the three questions that matter most during a contested fork.
1. Is economic adoption above ~60%?
If not, the upgrading fork struggles regardless of mining support.
Monitor: exchange proof-of-reserves, institutional custody migration, ETF flow data.
2. Has a pool controlling >20% of global hashrate committed to the upgrading chain?
This determines whether that pool is economically trapped on the upgrading chain or ideologically committed, a distinction that can reverse outcomes at moderate economic adoption levels.
3. Is economic adoption above ~75%?
If so, pool ideology and commitment structure become irrelevant to outcome. Mining dynamics still determine how disruptive resolution is, but not which side wins.
These thresholds come from 1,385 fork scenarios on real bitcoind nodes. Three statistical methods converge on the same boundary.
Caveat: numbers are calibrated to current pool distribution and modeling assumptions, mechanisms are general, specific values are not universal.
Full decision boundary, presentation, and data: https://github.com/pfoytik/Bitcoin-Fork-Governance-Study
Interactive fork explorer (adjust sliders, see predicted outcome): https://pfoytik.github.io/fork-explorer/index.html