Next week's midterm elections could change who writes the rules for crypto in Washington.
Bettors on Kalshi give Democrats a 90 percent chance of winning the House and a 64 percent chance of winning the Senate.
Here is what that could mean.
A Republican-led Congress passed the GENIUS Act, a stablecoin law.
It also worked on the Clarity Act, which passed the House in 2025.
In the Senate, it stalled amid a stablecoin rewards fight between banks and crypto, then derailed over President Donald Trump's crypto wealth.
Committee chairs drive the agenda in Congress.
If Democrats take the Senate, Senator Elizabeth Warren would chair the Senate Banking Committee. She says she is open to a crypto bill, but it would require Republicans to stand up to Trump.
Ron Hammond of Wintermute expects her to use subpoena power and be aggressive.
Ohio is a race to watch.
Sherrod Brown faces crypto-friendly Republican Jon Husted. The Fairshake political action committee committed $30 million to back Husted.
If Brown wins, Hammond says he could chair the Senate Agriculture Committee given his seniority.
In the House, the top spot on the Financial Services Committee is contested if Republicans lose the chamber.
Maxine Waters is expected to return, but Democratic Representatives Sean Casten and Bill Foster have challenged her.
Hammond expects heavy crypto oversight if Casten wins.
Asked if a Democratic Congress would prioritize the Clarity Act, Senator Angela Alsobrooks said: "Absolutely not."
She also noted it could still happen in the lame duck period, after the elections.
Hammond says it would not pass under any Democratic House Financial Services chair.
A skinnier bill is possible, but it would likely carry Democratic priorities, and Trump would still have to sign it.
The Blockchain Association remains committed to passing legislation and says the need for clear crypto rules will not change.
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