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2026-10-26 15:35:23 UTC

y11s on Nostr: Rise and grind, market goblins, it's Fed week Monday and the tape woke up swinging ...

Rise and grind, market goblins, it's Fed week Monday and the tape woke up swinging ☕️🥐

Stocks 📉📊⚡

🟢 Wall Street shook off two losing weeks, Nasdaq up about 1.1% and S&P 500 about 0.8% as chips bounced and Brent slipped under $110, ahead of the Fed on Wednesday and Microsoft and Alphabet earnings that night.
Bulls got their Monday. Now Big Tech has to actually show the cash.

💵 Meta launched about $35 billion of stock sales for its AI buildout, $22.5 billion of common plus $12.5 billion of mandatory convertible preferred, with up to $60 billion more planned from early 2027.
When a cash machine still sells shares, you know how insane the AI bill got.


Bitcoin ₿🏗️⚙️

⏸️ Strategy bought zero Bitcoin last week, ending a five-week streak, and spent $204.9 million buying back STRC preferred instead, holding 848,517 BTC, while Strive made its biggest buy ever, 6,182 BTC, for about 43,000 BTC.
The king took a week off and the challenger went shopping. Treasury wars are officially on.

🎢 Bitcoin dipped under $80,000 over the weekend, with a 24-hour low near $79,255, before bouncing to about $80,300, while US spot Bitcoin ETFs snapped a two-week outflow streak last week.
Chopping around $80K before a Fed call is torture for leverage. Spot stackers don't care.


Crypto 🌊🔗🎛️

🌙 Ripple Treasury launched 24/7 Returns, letting eligible companies earn on idle cash in assets like RLUSD overnight, on weekends and holidays, no rate disclosed yet, right before its Swell conference.
Banks close at 5, stablecoins never sleep. If treasurers bite, that's real adoption.

🎟️ Solana hit a record 1.5 million wallets holding tokenized stocks, roughly five times its August level and up from about 1 million in September.
Wallets, not people, so easy on the hype. Still, stocks on-chain are growing up fast.


AI 🛸🧮🔬

📑 Anthropic filed publicly for a Nasdaq IPO under ticker ANT, showing $16.29 billion of first-half revenue and an $80.7 billion net loss, mostly non-cash note charges, plus a warning of "catastrophic or existential risks."
Only in AI can you lose $80 billion in six months and still be the hottest IPO on the planet.

🐟 Elon Musk says debt markets have almost shut off money for firms living only off AI data centers and that 200+ neoclouds face "guppy-level death and consolidation," knocking CoreWeave and Nebius down about 4% more.
Brutal, from a guy who just landed $40 billion of GPU financing. Easy to talk tough when you own the rockets.


Tesla 🔌🛣️📍

🧭 Tesla expanded its Houston robotaxi zone from about 25 square miles in the northwest to a far bigger area through downtown toward Bellaire, and the map is shaped like a Starship.
Elon says the shape is a coincidence. Sure it is. Bigger maps every month is the scoreboard that matters.

🇱🇻 Latvia approved FSD Supervised, called Tesla Assisted Driving in Europe, making it the 10th European country to green-light it, with an over-the-air rollout coming soon.
Europe moves one small country at a time, but it moves. Ten down, a continent to go.


SpaceX ☄️🌑🧑‍🚀

✈️ easyJet will install Starlink Wi-Fi across its A320, A320neo and A321neo fleet, its first onboard internet ever, starting in the first half of 2027 and finishing by early 2028.
Budget airline, premium Wi-Fi. Every other low-cost carrier is on the clock now.

🛡️ Boeing is fitting Starshield, SpaceX's military satellite network, on Air Force C-17 Globemaster III jets at its San Antonio site, with nine done and 19 planned by March 2027.
Starlink for tourists, Starshield for the Pentagon. SpaceX is the plumbing of everything that flies.


Global 🧿🌋📯

🇧🇷 Lula won a fourth term with 51.75% to 48.25% over Flávio Bolsonaro and Brazil's market cratered: the Ibovespa hit a circuit breaker at minus 10% for the first time since 2020, then slid about 17% as the dollar jumped nearly 10% against the real.
Money sprinted for the exit. Exporters like Vale and Suzano are green, anything domestic is getting obliterated.

🎯 The US military says it could be ready for major strikes on Iran within 96 hours of an order, as Israel votes Tuesday amid reports Netanyahu pushed for a joint strike before the vote and Trump said no, which his office denies.
Oil traders sleep with one eye open this week. One headline and the whole board reprices.


Macro 🏦🧾📏

Base rate

USA: 3.75% to 4.00% (decision Oct 28)

Eurozone: 2.50% deposit rate (decision Oct 29)


Latest inflation

USA: 3.7% CPI (September)

Eurozone: 3.8% HICP (September)


Core inflation

USA: 2.6% (September)

Eurozone: 2.5% (September)


Unemployment rate

USA: 4.2% (September)

Europe: 6.4% euro area (August)


Balance sheet

USA: Stable, total assets flat near $6.75 trillion with reserve management bill buys on pause

Eurozone: QT, APP and PEPP holdings keep running off with no reinvestment


Stance & Outlook 🦅🔭

Hawkish pause mode. Markets price about a 90% chance the Fed holds Wednesday, but all 100 economists in one big poll expect a December hike, and a hawkish dissent is possible. September PCE lands Thursday, seen at 3.6% from 3.4%, the same day the ECB is expected to hold at 2.50% with every option open. Calm words, tight bias, oil still the boss.


Stocks below fair value 🛍️🔻💸

$NVDA

The most named "cheap" mega cap in the value crowd. At about $215 it trades under 18x forward earnings while revenue more than doubled in a year, about 12% under its 52-week high. Bears point to competition and the neocloud debt mess, but this growth at a market multiple is rare.

Earnings: Q2 FY2027 revenue $96.22 billion (up 106%), GAAP EPS $2.46, non-GAAP EPS $2.22, trailing EPS $7.91, next report Nov 18

P/E: about 27x trailing, about 17.8x forward

$ORCL

Down about 56% from its $287 high to around $127 in the AI debt selloff, and value profiles keep calling it too cheap to ignore. Revenue grew 30% last quarter and the backlog hit $664 billion, yet the forward multiple is near multi-year lows. The risk is how much it must borrow to build it all, and Investor Day on Oct 29 has to answer that.

Earnings: Q1 FY2027 revenue $19.35 billion (up 30%), GAAP EPS $1.56, non-GAAP EPS $1.92 vs $1.74 expected, trailing EPS $6.38

P/E: about 20x trailing, about 15x forward