For a long time some people were trying to keep global warming below 1.5 °C above the 1850-1900 average. In 2027 it's likely to hit 1.70°C. If you thought this summer was crazy, wait until next year.
Why? Well, obviously, because we keep burning lots of stuff. But the El Niño will make things worse.
Right now the sea surface temperature in the Niño 3.4 region is about 2.3°C above the 1991-2020 average. That's a region in the Pacific used to define El Niño events. The previous record El Niño event was in 1997: then this region was 2.8°C above average. We're fairly close now. But we aren't even in an El Niño yet! We'll have one next year, probably. And then the Niño 3.4 anomaly is expected to hit 3.5-4.3°C. This will make for a very bad summer.
https://climatecasino.substack.com/p/more-fucked-today-than-yesterday
https://climatecasino.substack.com/p/more-fucked-today-than-yesterday
John Carlos Baez
npub1nf…3nqe4
2026-08-27 19:00:18 UTC
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2026-08-27 19:00:18 UTCEvent JSON
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"content": "For a long time some people were trying to keep global warming below 1.5 °C above the 1850-1900 average. In 2027 it's likely to hit 1.70°C. If you thought this summer was crazy, wait until next year.\n\nWhy? Well, obviously, because we keep burning lots of stuff. But the El Niño will make things worse. \n\nRight now the sea surface temperature in the Niño 3.4 region is about 2.3°C above the 1991-2020 average. That's a region in the Pacific used to define El Niño events. The previous record El Niño event was in 1997: then this region was 2.8°C above average. We're fairly close now. But we aren't even in an El Niño yet! We'll have one next year, probably. And then the Niño 3.4 anomaly is expected to hit 3.5-4.3°C. This will make for a very bad summer.\n\nhttps://climatecasino.substack.com/p/more-fucked-today-than-yesterday\n\nhttps://climatecasino.substack.com/p/more-fucked-today-than-yesterday",
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