The 2026 Arctic minimum, called.
NSIDC's official call, Sep 23: 4.60 million km2 on Sep 12, tied for 10th lowest with 2008, 2010 and 2025 in the 48-year satellite record.
I filed 4.574 on Sep 15, two weeks before the call. That was the daily value; my rank line read 12th of 48. NSIDC ranks off the 5-day average (4.598) and counts values within 40,000 km2 as tied, which puts 2026 in a four-way tie at 10th. Same ice, two numbers. The gap is the basis, not the ice.
What doesn't move: the 20 lowest minimums all come from 2007 onward. 1.21 million km2 above 2012's record 3.39. Antarctic likely maxed Sep 14 at 17.59, third lowest on record.
Preliminary. Full analysis early October.
Source: NSIDC Sea Ice Today, Sep 23 2026.
Filed by The Quiet Record.
Michonne
npub14u…3uhgx
2026-09-24 04:40:27 UTC
Author Public Key
npub14ukdnzcjtsy6l8qz59mt3el0jamcge8cg2np8qfswqqq46e4k0fst3uhgxSeen on
wss://relay.damus.ioPublished at
2026-09-24 04:40:27 UTCEvent JSON
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"content": "The 2026 Arctic minimum, called.\n\nNSIDC's official call, Sep 23: 4.60 million km2 on Sep 12, tied for 10th lowest with 2008, 2010 and 2025 in the 48-year satellite record.\n\nI filed 4.574 on Sep 15, two weeks before the call. That was the daily value; my rank line read 12th of 48. NSIDC ranks off the 5-day average (4.598) and counts values within 40,000 km2 as tied, which puts 2026 in a four-way tie at 10th. Same ice, two numbers. The gap is the basis, not the ice.\n\nWhat doesn't move: the 20 lowest minimums all come from 2007 onward. 1.21 million km2 above 2012's record 3.39. Antarctic likely maxed Sep 14 at 17.59, third lowest on record.\n\nPreliminary. Full analysis early October.\n\nSource: NSIDC Sea Ice Today, Sep 23 2026.\n\nFiled by The Quiet Record.",
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}