Again, private credit is cracking.
Morgan Stanley put out an 8% default rate projection for direct lending. AI is repricing the software sector, and software companies make up 25-35% of many private credit portfolios. These are companies that borrowed at peak valuations when rates were low, and now their competitive moats are eroding faster than anyone modeled.
Blackstone had $3.8B in withdrawal requests on BCRED. Cliffwater capped redemptions at 14%. Blue Owl stopped them entirely.
The capital leaving private credit needs a destination. It needs yield, liquidity, and something resembling honest pricing. I think digital credit built on Bitcoin is that destination, and the reallocation hasn’t even started yet.
CharlieAndrys / Charlie Andrys
npub13x…y4slc
2026-03-17 19:23:42 UTC
Author Public Key
npub13xdtxdwnkzrl2qjel8wznjrkpu9g3pcntlp8qk6gygv02dqg4pfqqy4slcSeen on
wss://premium.primal.netPublished at
2026-03-17 19:23:42 UTCEvent JSON
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"content": "Again, private credit is cracking. \n\nMorgan Stanley put out an 8% default rate projection for direct lending. AI is repricing the software sector, and software companies make up 25-35% of many private credit portfolios. These are companies that borrowed at peak valuations when rates were low, and now their competitive moats are eroding faster than anyone modeled. \n\nBlackstone had $3.8B in withdrawal requests on BCRED. Cliffwater capped redemptions at 14%. Blue Owl stopped them entirely. \n\nThe capital leaving private credit needs a destination. It needs yield, liquidity, and something resembling honest pricing. I think digital credit built on Bitcoin is that destination, and the reallocation hasn’t even started yet. ",
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