One important caveat: the models have never been verified in this territory. They have real, demonstrated skill at this lead time for ordinary events, but no ensemble has ever forecast a 3.5C El Niño because one has never happened.
We are both figuratively and literally in uncharted waters.
Zeke Hausfather
npub1sm…ksjc0
2026-07-13 15:21:11 UTC
in reply to nevent1q…5c0h
Author Public Key
npub1smxvkja7p7znk8kef8xc3cs8aacs40zq2sma2zd8fmvf78pr0c2q2ksjc0Seen on
wss://relay.momostr.pinkPublished at
2026-07-13 15:21:11 UTCEvent JSON
{
"id": "b801cab8c6961f97ba77f78ccfa526af4cba3d43b08b757649db551db91ecba9",
"pubkey": "86cccb4bbe0f853b1ed949cd88e207ef710abc405437d509a74ed89f1c237e14",
"created_at": 1783956071,
"kind": 1,
"tags": [
[
"e",
"f2556aeef5ca2709ed8b5ae7292ef476fdc7ad441afdca009ee78866da107d02",
"",
"root",
"86cccb4bbe0f853b1ed949cd88e207ef710abc405437d509a74ed89f1c237e14"
],
[
"p",
"86cccb4bbe0f853b1ed949cd88e207ef710abc405437d509a74ed89f1c237e14"
],
[
"proxy",
"https://fediscience.org/@hausfath/116913345083672392",
"web"
],
[
"e",
"dee0b13188e550c51a522c6bf13d093402a67011ef23e3ee4e5f09dc8cf8d0a0",
"",
"reply",
"86cccb4bbe0f853b1ed949cd88e207ef710abc405437d509a74ed89f1c237e14"
],
[
"proxy",
"https://fediscience.org/users/hausfath/statuses/116913345083672392",
"activitypub"
],
[
"L",
"pink.momostr"
],
[
"l",
"pink.momostr.activitypub:https://fediscience.org/users/hausfath/statuses/116913345083672392",
"pink.momostr"
],
[
"-"
]
],
"content": "One important caveat: the models have never been verified in this territory. They have real, demonstrated skill at this lead time for ordinary events, but no ensemble has ever forecast a 3.5C El Niño because one has never happened. \n\nWe are both figuratively and literally in uncharted waters.",
"sig": "70fc7b8f0edd0a7bc501edd960e49cd46de195d90a0fff82fec5cfc22fcf7d0e67e556d9a24aa490f40efd9643bd55ee8bd7eede06da9d4bccd2be148c669551"
}