Tom Nomad on Nostr: On election night, the results are posted by county boards of election to election ...

On election night, the results are posted by county boards of election to election data services. These counties report numbers when they have finished counting, and the media takes these and determined projections for outcomes in specific states from those results. This system makes sense, and is far more reliable than exit polling (polls taken at the exit to polling places), but it does create a very specific phenomenon; the shifting result.

Following this structure of reporting results we tend to see a number of dynamics that create a very specific illusion. In most states rural counties, which tend to be conservative, have fewer voters, and are returning results more quickly than precincts and counties in cities. Further, the counts given on election night are based on who voted that day, and what counties reported that evening. This leaves out absentee ballots (which tend to skew heavily in favor of Democrats) and counties that may have technical errors. Just to give you all an idea of how much that can skew results, according to the Washington Post around half of everyone has voted, and Harris leads by between 19 and 29 points depending on the poll (https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/10/31/polls-show-harris-with-big-early-vote-lead-despite-gop-gains/). Now, again, exit polls, including those taken of early voters, tend to be a bit inaccurate, but the general trend here is one that has repeated in all of the presidential elections this century.

From that point a series of bureaucratic ceremonies have to happen over the course of a couple of months to complete the process, and again, a lot of people wear funny hats and things.

Before December 11th all states need to certify their presidential election results. They are not reporting the results at this point, just saying they have certified results. It was in this window that we saw the bulk of the lawsuits last time. The Trump campaign was attempting, first, to block certification, and to force the elections to be invalidated in a number of states.

Then, on December 17, the Electors gather in their respective states and vote for President and Vice President. It was in this period that the Trump campaign attempted to appoint "alternate Electors" to submit results on behalf of a specific state, even though they were not sanctioned to do so. The results of these votes are sent to the National Archive.

All states must return Electoral Votes to the National Archive before December 25th, which are then sent on to Congress before January 3rd. And, the infamous day, January 6th, is the day that Congress gathers to actually count those votes.

After all of that, after a number of ceremonies, and parties, and formal procedures, a vote total becomes an elected President, in one of the most absurd, confusing political voting systems on Earth.