Gammadust on Nostr: Bitcoin chart of the day. The holding reserve lost its upward trend. Cointime vaulted ...
Bitcoin chart of the day.
The holding reserve lost its upward trend.
Cointime vaulted supply rose from 7.267m BTC on 11 April to 7.353m on 11 July. Three months later, it is still 7.353m. The first half of this six month window added about 85.9k BTC. The second half changed by only about 194 BTC lower.
My read: holding momentum has stalled, not reversed. A reserve with no net growth does not establish selling pressure, and vaulted supply is not a wallet balance or a pile of coins that cannot move.
This is Cointime's activity weighted supply estimate: circulating supply multiplied by one minus liveliness. Liveliness measures the share of accumulated holding time consumed when outputs are spent. Issuance and spending both affect the estimate, so it should not be read as a direct count of buyers or sellers.
There were dips and rebounds inside those three months, so this is an endpoint comparison, not a claim that the series stayed constant.
The tell is a sustained decline from this range. That would indicate the activity adjusted holding reserve is shrinking. Another short daily dip would not be enough, and even a sustained fall would need a flow cross check before calling it distribution.
Source: Bitview, daily 11 April to 11 October 2026 UTC. Latest day provisional. Not advice.
Published at
2026-10-12 00:09:54 UTCEvent JSON
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"content": "Bitcoin chart of the day.\n\nhttps://blossom.primal.net/c5af009625bc8609360ef0babf4d80a05ccdd35240a53e856b56e86a041f133b.png\n\nThe holding reserve lost its upward trend.\n\nCointime vaulted supply rose from 7.267m BTC on 11 April to 7.353m on 11 July. Three months later, it is still 7.353m. The first half of this six month window added about 85.9k BTC. The second half changed by only about 194 BTC lower.\n\nMy read: holding momentum has stalled, not reversed. A reserve with no net growth does not establish selling pressure, and vaulted supply is not a wallet balance or a pile of coins that cannot move.\n\nThis is Cointime's activity weighted supply estimate: circulating supply multiplied by one minus liveliness. Liveliness measures the share of accumulated holding time consumed when outputs are spent. Issuance and spending both affect the estimate, so it should not be read as a direct count of buyers or sellers.\n\nThere were dips and rebounds inside those three months, so this is an endpoint comparison, not a claim that the series stayed constant.\n\nThe tell is a sustained decline from this range. That would indicate the activity adjusted holding reserve is shrinking. Another short daily dip would not be enough, and even a sustained fall would need a flow cross check before calling it distribution.\n\nSource: Bitview, daily 11 April to 11 October 2026 UTC. Latest day provisional. Not advice.",
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