Right now, the country feels like it’s being held hostage by the IRGC—closer to a mafia network than a normal state. That network has taken heavy hits: key figures are gone, many militia-linked sites have been destroyed, and the chain of command and protest-suppression infrastructure look seriously disrupted.
With many people seemingly expecting—and in some cases supporting—these US and Israeli strikes, it’s unlikely this ends quietly. The next uprising will almost certainly be bigger, and with the regime already weakened, it’s hard to see the crackdown forces responding like they used to. If the recent drone strikes continue or intensify, that pressure will only grow once people are back on the streets.
Airstrikes alone probably won’t bring the regime down—but by weakening its military and security apparatus, they may have created the conditions for people themselves to finally topple the corrupt mullahs.
