John Carlos Baez on Nostr: As the view from Moscow becomes increasingly embarrassing, it seems increasingly ...

As the view from Moscow becomes increasingly embarrassing, it seems increasingly likely Putin will start a new more desperate phase of his war against Ukraine. Experts expect him to start a quiet mobilization of troops shortly after tomorrow's parliamentary elections. He seems to want 300,000 - 500,000 new soldiers. Despite increasing payments to soldiers, recruitment has been failing to keep pace with the rising casualties.

We can also expect Putin to step up attacks against Europe. More drones flying into European air space, and more stuff like this:

• On August 4, 2026, a bomb squad at Leipzig/Halle Airport found an explosive-laden drone that had failed to detonate near Ukrainian Antonov cargo aircraft, with a second object reportedly striking a DHL plane.

• Between September 1 and 7, a wave of sabotage hit German power infrastructure: devices were detonated at a Brandenburg substation (Sept 1–2), a suspected attack occurred near Cologne, and 21 homemade devices meant to short-circuit high-voltage lines were found near the Bärwalde and Graustein substations in Saxony (Sept 4–7), with a cut fence found at a Wesel substation around Sept 7.

• Train services across the Netherlands were disrupted by sabotage on September 15th. Long pipes were attached to train tracks in 30 places.

The picture here is the Moscow oil refinery after it was attacked by Ukrainian forces. It supplies 40% of the city's fuel: https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2026/09/20/8054274/