ABitcoinGuy on Nostr: ‘Weather prediction is fundamentally limited by chaos, the “butterfly effect,” ...

‘Weather prediction is fundamentally limited by chaos, the “butterfly effect,” where tiny changes in atmospheric conditions can produce very different outcomes weeks later. Despite this, machine learning, large datasets and massive compute have significantly improved forecasts to roughly two weeks ahead.

Climate prediction is a different problem. Weather asks where the atmosphere is heading on its current trajectory; climate asks about the long-term statistics of the system itself.
The difficulty is that the climate is non-stationary: human activity is changing the underlying system. Potential tipping points could shift it into new regimes, making long-term predictions extremely difficult.

AI has transformed weather forecasting, but climate prediction remains much harder because of limited data, uncertainty and a system whose underlying dynamics are themselves changing.’

Thoughts from John Platt on the The Latent Space podcast