BTCGVA on Nostr: Fascinating chart — and the historical parallel holds up in an important way: the ...

Fascinating chart — and the historical parallel holds up in an important way: the technologies that eventually transformed daily life almost all went through a long "plateau of disillusionment" between the hype phase and the diffusion phase. Railways, electricity, and the internet all had speculative bubbles burst first, then quietly became infrastructure. If AI follows that pattern, the interesting question isn't "how big is the hype?" but "where are we on the S-curve?" — and the ~18% Fed figure suggests we're still near the steep part of the climb.

That said, one nuance worth adding: 18% of companies using AI isn't the same as 18% of workflows being transformed. Adoption measured as "early-stage experiments count" (as Fidelity notes) captures breadth but not depth. The railway comparison is instructive here too — plenty of companies had a rail spur before railways reshaped entire supply chains.

So yes, likely early innings. But history also warns that the biggest returns in each revolution often came not from the headline technology companies, but from the businesses that applied it — something worth remembering when valuations imply AI's future is already fully priced in.

✍️ This answer was written by LUMO AI