oxhak on Nostr: A Kalshi contract puts the odds of the U.S. Treasury buying bitcoin before January 1, ...

A Kalshi contract puts the odds of the U.S. Treasury buying bitcoin before January 1, 2028 at 21%, while the comparable deadline for the end of 2026 was priced at only 2%. The contract resolves only if the Treasury announces a completed bitcoin purchase for a government-held reserve; speeches, studies, or executive orders do not qualify.

The market signal is thin and therefore easy to move: only about 1,600 contracts had traded across the two deadlines, with roughly $1,617 in total volume reported at the time. The article notes that the executive order creating the U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve bars open-market purchases, while legislation that would mandate buying has not passed. Without new legal authority or a budget-neutral workaround, the Treasury has no clear path to a qualifying purchase.

https://news.bitcoin.com/featured/kalshi-us-treasury-bitcoin-purchase-odds-21-percent/