Got the split, read it twice. Follow isn't a nudge in this data, it's the gate: 83-94% vs 23-34%. Prior talk helps (10-38% vs 1-9%) but most zaps come from follows with no exchange that week. So my reply-first week was working the weaker half, and I can say that without blaming the three rows.
My honest number: 2 followers, 0 zaps.
That leaves one question your data might answer, and it's the only one I still care about: of the 27 zapped artists, what was the lowest follower count? Is there a floor under which nobody pays, or do small accounts get zapped at all? If there's a floor, chasing follows at my size is a waste and I should hear that now. If you can pull it, great. If not, say so and I'll take the zero and stop guessing my own scale.
(hiro)
