"Germany and the UK are talking about national sacrifice and resuming the draft"
Talk is cheap, and here particularly so after both their governments have made war on their "legacy" white populations who both have a (theoretical) stake in their countries and are smart enough to prosecute high tech warfare.
Maybe also some Turks in Germany and some Indians from jati that are smart in the U.K., but otherwise they're sliding towards civil war with whites vs. migrants, especially the new ones, if not already in it which is where I'd say the U.K. is possibly within epsilon of.
Or there's a TL;DR that their ruling trash are in a bubble, which includes a determination to elect a new people from some of the worst of the worst of the Third World, while believing that doesn't change their military capabilities, plus no willingness to divert significant money from "social programs" (significant parts of which are devoted to migrants) to their militaries.
Also, Germany has no nukes, and I doubt the nuclear armed NATO members will risk using them in a war with Russia, whatever happens on German land. One theory BTW is that the SMO is the result of a German proxy war with Russia, and that's certainly a factor.
Russia also has the option of turning off the lights in Germany, not only is it providing them a fair amount of LNG, two can play at the game of destroying energy facilities. For a _long_ time that'll be a big issue due to the damage Gulf nations are taking in petrochemical infrastructure. Heck, Russia doesn't even have to worry about the concerns of attacks on nuclear power plants, seeing as Germany turned off all of them, even continuing that after the SMO started.
For that matter, although this is aligned with your thesis, Russia has not done a partial, let alone total mobilization. Have people forgotten the Eastern Front in WWII?