Tom Nomad on Nostr: This all seems to add up to the possibility of another Fall-Winter 2020-2021 again. ...

This all seems to add up to the possibility of another Fall-Winter 2020-2021 again. It seems as if we have one party dedicated to tearing apart the electoral system to gain and hold onto power. They seem, just as then, willing to say anything, do anything, and manipulate anyone in the service of this goal. The political realities of elections in general in the US lead to this unique opening for conspiracies to arise. So, we should all be gearing up for mass right wing rallies and stuff...right?

Actually, the likelihood of this happening in the same way it did in 2020 are probably pretty slim. The rhetoric is heated like it was in 2020, but there are two major changes that have happened since that time in right wing political spaces. The first is a languishing sense of enthusiasm. Many people have commented on it during this cycle, but this is an important point, people are leaving his rallies early, and fewer are showing up. It is just not that exciting after a decade of the same guy yelling about the same stuff, especially when he aimlessly rants. That would never have happened in the past cycles.

Secondly, there is a sense now in the right wing that breaking laws in the name of political goals can have actual consequences. I think anyone that is involved in anarchist spaces has known this for years, as we have fought off wave after wave of mass repression. Remember, though, many conservatives felt that state violence against protesters was justified, because it was against "ANTIFA" or something, and that it would never happen to "good people". If that violence did happen to them, then it was just a few bad apple cops and Trump would pardon them. It sounds absurd to think this, but go back to boards on thedonald.win from back in 2020, and this perspective is almost universally held.

Now that hundreds have been convicted of serious stuff, taken away from their friends and family, fired from their jobs, and sent to prison, without Trump stepping in, that sense has changed. Now, when journalists talk to Trump supporters, outside of the agro dudes, you find a lot of people that are not willing to take things to that level again, that recognize that there are significant consequences, and that they are just going to wait out the next 4 years if Trump loses. We also don't have the far right escalating things this time (they are relatively disorganized right now), and playing the role of open, state sanctioned vigilantes.