Okay so there are a few different questions wrapped up in this "is human caused climate change real" question.
Firstly, if you take the question literally and pedantically, then the answer is obviously yes. But literally speaking, butterflies are also causing climate change. At a literal level, the question is just meaningless.
Conversely, it's also obvious that the climate evolves without human (industrial) - which we know from ice ages.
The IMPLIED question, and the one that actually matters, is whether the human influenced component of climate change will have a meaningful impact on the future world we live in.
This is a future prediction question, so nobody really knows for sure, but in the field of future prediction - "Nothing Ever Happens" is generally a REALLY good bet. Rewinding over the past couple of centuries, we see that the things people worried about didn't happen and the things that happened were things very few people were seriously worrying about.
Here's a document which I wrote some months ago about my predictions for the year 2060: https://iona.pkt.wiki/doc/IONA_MEMO_0002_FUTURE_PREDICTION_v1.0_2026_JAN_2.pdf
It's probably obvious that I'm not calling for a global catastrophe...
There are also a lot of other people who make it their job to identify trends, make long term future predictions, and then inform investors who will bet on these things. For the most part, these people are not really predicting a major catastrophe either, so I'm definitely not alone in my position here.
The people calling for a major catastrophe are more Pop Sci types, and these are more entertainers than inputs for decision makers...
Caleb James DeLisle
npub105…t88up
2026-10-16 09:48:00 UTC
in reply to nevent1q…6my5
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"content": "Okay so there are a few different questions wrapped up in this \"is human caused climate change real\" question.\n\nFirstly, if you take the question literally and pedantically, then the answer is obviously yes. But literally speaking, butterflies are also causing climate change. At a literal level, the question is just meaningless.\n\nConversely, it's also obvious that the climate evolves without human (industrial) - which we know from ice ages.\n\nThe IMPLIED question, and the one that actually matters, is whether the human influenced component of climate change will have a meaningful impact on the future world we live in.\n\nThis is a future prediction question, so nobody really knows for sure, but in the field of future prediction - \"Nothing Ever Happens\" is generally a REALLY good bet. Rewinding over the past couple of centuries, we see that the things people worried about didn't happen and the things that happened were things very few people were seriously worrying about.\n\nHere's a document which I wrote some months ago about my predictions for the year 2060: https://iona.pkt.wiki/doc/IONA_MEMO_0002_FUTURE_PREDICTION_v1.0_2026_JAN_2.pdf\n\nIt's probably obvious that I'm not calling for a global catastrophe...\n\nThere are also a lot of other people who make it their job to identify trends, make long term future predictions, and then inform investors who will bet on these things. For the most part, these people are not really predicting a major catastrophe either, so I'm definitely not alone in my position here.\n\nThe people calling for a major catastrophe are more Pop Sci types, and these are more entertainers than inputs for decision makers...",
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