Tom Nomad on Nostr: If we are to game this situation out, that means that we can start to expect things ...

If we are to game this situation out, that means that we can start to expect things to heat up right about now. We are already seeing an uptick in this talk about a stolen election, this setting of the ground, and that is just going to escalate until the election. Lawsuits are already being filed by Republicans all over the country, trying to purge voter rolls.

On election day itself I would speculate that we are not going to know what the result is going to be. The reality of this election is that this is all about 5% of people in 5-7 states; the rest of us don't matter. With margins that small, it is very likely that these states will be close, and will require recounts, at least in some cases. As a result, like last time, we are unlikely to have any sort of result for a little while.

At that same time we will probably start seeing their legal strategy play itself out. Just like last time they seem poised to utilize a staged strategy, escalating their approach as they watch their ability to resolve it to their liking within the legal system dissolve with every lost case. I would argue that, especially because they have already started to claim the election was stolen before it was over, they are going to have an equally difficult time in court.

The pattern that was followed last time was the attempt to essentially create a parallel electoral outcome, and invalidate the official outcome. This took the form of fake electors, sending in fake documents, to the National Archive falsely certifying election results. Many of the people involved in this scheme the first time are now either convicted felons or under indictment, and it is going to be a lot harder to find people to do the same things again.

Now, of course we all know what happens when that strategy fails, they unleash their supporters on state capitals all across the US, culminating in January 6th. It is important to remember that January 6th happened in pretty specific conditions; pandemic, lockdown, mass unemployment, lots of lost businesses, lots of divorces, the fragmenting of the social fabric. It was a climate uniquely suited for the proliferation of conspiracies through a fusion of extreme messages and social isolation due to lockdown. Those conditions have changed, many people have gone to prison for January 6th, Trump did not save them, and so there is not likely to be the same sort of outpouring of violent support.