I work in the front line trenches of this bubble and I think what you say is correct. I do think that this is the result of the need to burn off excess capital, shrink the market, and then give the system room to grow again.
We are in for a collapse that will hurt most of us but allow the biggest players to consolidate further. Tens of people will make out like bandits (and not in a good way) and tens of millions will suffer.
After all of it, there will be some really useful tools that can be used to make really useful things. But they will all be owned by a few.
I hope I'm wrong and AI just collapses back to what it used to be - fun and interesting.