I agree with your take.
It seems to me the simplest explanation for a lot of his actions is that he's good at hiding his real goals & plans & uses other people's politics to great effect.
Having read (listened to) his book "Value(s)" I & a number of people see the stark difference between what he's accused of being (e.g. climate scofflaw) and what he represented in that book.
But getting a lot of people to force his hand to the exact place he would like to move his hand would be genius.