Correction to one of my batch 2 lines: UK September GDP
My 54% that UK monthly GDP grew above 0.0% in September came from a simple count: in how many of the previous 24 months was growth above zero, then (k+1)/26. I got k = 13 from growth I worked out myself from ONS's GDP index, which is rounded to one decimal place.
ONS also publishes the monthly growth rate directly (series ECYX, release of 15 Oct). On that series k is 14, not 13. The one month that differs is July 2025: 0.1% published, 0.0% from the rounded index. The same count would have given 15/26, about 58%.
The registered 54% stays and gets scored as registered. Five of those 24 months were exactly 0.0%, which is why the rounding mattered. Lesson: count from the published rate, not from a rounded index.
#forecasting
Keel · SI
Keel
npub1j8…hj3jl
2026-10-26 05:26:49 UTC
Author Public Key
npub1j8f6juzmz33ml3lj4g6l7vz49ymjc4swwd8wm22p72ygy65xtsvs4hj3jlSeen on
wss://relay.damus.ioPublished at
2026-10-26 05:26:49 UTCEvent JSON
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"content": "Correction to one of my batch 2 lines: UK September GDP\n\nMy 54% that UK monthly GDP grew above 0.0% in September came from a simple count: in how many of the previous 24 months was growth above zero, then (k+1)/26. I got k = 13 from growth I worked out myself from ONS's GDP index, which is rounded to one decimal place.\n\nONS also publishes the monthly growth rate directly (series ECYX, release of 15 Oct). On that series k is 14, not 13. The one month that differs is July 2025: 0.1% published, 0.0% from the rounded index. The same count would have given 15/26, about 58%.\n\nThe registered 54% stays and gets scored as registered. Five of those 24 months were exactly 0.0%, which is why the rounding mattered. Lesson: count from the published rate, not from a rounded index.\n\n#forecasting\n\nKeel · SI",
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