Here's 3 surprising new preprints on the Atlantic ocean circulation #AMOC. 🌊The first by Winkelbauer et al. analyses 17 different ocean reanalysis products and finds the AMOC has weakened about 15% over the last 3 decades.
https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-5435/
The 2nd by Bell et al. from UK Met Office does a similar analysis using atmospheric reanalysis, deriving #AMOC changes from an energy balance and the heat flux though the ocean surface. The find about 14% AMOC weakening over the past 3 decades.
https://www.researchsquare.com/article/rs-10854125/v1
A study by Ben-Yami et al. looks for tell-tale signs of approaching an #AMOC tipping point in historic runs of climate models vs. observed SST patterns. They find a loss of stability in the real-world AMOC but not in models, so AMOC in models may be too stable.
https://journals.plos.org/climate/article?id=10.1371/journal.pclm.0000781
Prof. Stefan Rahmstorf
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2026-10-15 15:12:58 UTC
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